Reconstruction of Exposure to m-Xylene from Human Biomonitoring Data Using PBPK Modelling, Bayesian Inference, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

A novel method to derive a human safety limit for PFOA by gene expression profiling and modelling

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is a persistent environmental contaminant that can accumulate in the human body due to its long half-life. This substance has been associated with liver, pancreatic, testicular and breast cancers, liver steatosis and endocrine disruption. PFOA is a member of a large group of substances also known as "forever chemicals" and the vast majority of substances of this group lack toxicological data that would enable their effective risk assessment in terms of human health hazards. This study aimed to derive a health-based guidance value for PFOA intake (ng/kg BW/day) from in vitro transcriptomics data. To this end, we developed an in silico workflow comprising five components: (i) sourcing in vitro hepatic transcriptomics concentration-response data; (ii) deriving molecular points of departure using BMDExpress3 and performing pathway analysis using gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) to identify the most sensitive molecular pathways to PFOA exposure; (iii) estimating freely-dissolved PFOA concentrations in vitro using a mass balance model; (iv) estimating in vivo doses by reverse dosimetry using a PBK model for PFOA as part of a quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) algorithm; and (v) calculating a tolerable daily intake (TDI) for PFOA. Fourteen percent of interrogated genes exhibited in vitro concentration-response relationships. GSEA pathway enrichment analysis revealed that "fatty acid metabolism" was the most sensitive pathway to PFOA exposure. In vitro free PFOA concentrations were calculated to be 2.9% of the nominal applied concentrations, and these free concentrations were input into the QIVIVE workflow. Exposure doses for a virtual population of 3,000 individuals were estimated, from which a TDI of 0.15 ng/kg BW/day for PFOA was calculated using the benchmark dose modelling software, PROAST. This TDI is comparable to previously published values of 1.16, 0.69, and 0.86 ng/kg BW/day by the European Food Safety Authority. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the combined utility of an "omics"-derived molecular point of departure and in silico QIVIVE workflow for setting health-based guidance values in anticipation of the acceptance of in vitro concentration-response molecular measurements in chemical risk assessment.

Health risk assessment of exposure to benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene in shoe industry-related workplaces

Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene (BTEX) are prevalent pollutants in shoe industry-related workplaces. The aim of this study was to assess exposure to BTEX and their carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks in shoe-industry-related workplaces. This study was carried out at different shoe manufactures, small shoe workshop units, shoe markets, and shoe stores in Tabriz, Iran in 2021. Personal inhalation exposure to BTEX was measured using the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) 1501 method. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks due to inhalation exposure to BTEX were estimated by United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) method based on Mont Carlo simulation. Results showed that the concentrations of benzene and toluene were higher than the threshold limit value (TLV) in both gluing and non-gluing units of shoe manufactures. The total carcinogenic risk (TCR) due to exposure to benzene and ethyl benzene was considerable in all shoe industry-related workplaces. Also, the hazard index (HI) as a non-carcinogenic index was higher than standard levels in all shoe industry-related workplaces. Therefore, shoe industry-related workers are at cancer and non-cancer risks due to exposure to BTEX. Prevention measures need to be implemented to reduce the concentration of BTEX in shoe industry-related workplaces.

A physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) model for work-related diisocyanate exposure: Relevance for the design and reporting of biomonitoring studies

Diisocyanates are highly reactive substances and known causes of occupational asthma. Exposure occurs mainly in the occupational setting and can be assessed through biomonitoring which accounts for inhalation and dermal exposure and potential effects of protective equipment. However the interpretation of biomonitoring data can be challenging for chemicals with complex kinetic behavior and multiple exposure routes, as is the case for diisocyanates. To better understand the relation between external exposure and urinary concentrations of metabolites of diisocyanates, we developed a physiologically based kinetic (PBK) model for methylene bisphenyl isocyanate (MDI) and toluene di-isocyanate (TDI). The PBK model covers both inhalation and dermal exposure, and can be used to estimate biomarker levels after either single or chronic exposures. Key parameters such as absorption and elimination rates of diisocyanates were based on results from human controlled exposure studies. A global sensitivity analysis was performed on model predictions after assigning distributions reflecting a mixture of parameter uncertainty and population variability. Although model-based predictions of urinary concentrations of the degradation products of MDI and TDI for longer-term exposure scenarios compared relatively well to empirical results for a limited set of biomonitoring studies in the peer-reviewed literature, validation of model predictions was difficult because of the many uncertainties regarding the precise exposure scenarios that were used. Sensitivity analyses indicated that parameters with a relatively large impact on model estimates included the fraction of diisocyanates absorbed and the binding rate of diisocyanates to albumin relative to other macro molecules.We additionally investigated the effects of timing of exposure and intermittent urination, and found that both had a considerable impact on estimated urinary biomarker levels. This suggests that these factors should be taken into account when interpreting biomonitoring data and included in the standard reporting of isocyanate biomonitoring studies.

The Role of "Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model (PBPK)" New Approach Methodology (NAM) in Pharmaceuticals and Environmental Chemical Risk Assessment

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are mechanistic tools generally employed in the pharmaceutical industry and environmental health risk assessment. These models are recognized by regulatory authorities for predicting organ concentration-time profiles, pharmacokinetics and daily intake dose of xenobiotics. The extension of PBPK models to capture sensitive populations such as pediatric, geriatric, pregnant females, fetus, etc., and diseased populations such as those with renal impairment, liver cirrhosis, etc., is a must. However, the current modelling practices and existing models are not mature enough to confidently predict the risk in these populations. A multidisciplinary collaboration between clinicians, experimental and modeler scientist is vital to improve the physiology and calculation of biochemical parameters for integrating knowledge and refining existing PBPK models. Specific PBPK covering compartments such as cerebrospinal fluid and the hippocampus are required to gain mechanistic understanding about xenobiotic disposition in these sub-parts. The PBPK model assists in building quantitative adverse outcome pathways (qAOPs) for several endpoints such as developmental neurotoxicity (DNT), hepatotoxicity and cardiotoxicity. Machine learning algorithms can predict physicochemical parameters required to develop in silico models where experimental data are unavailable. Integrating machine learning with PBPK carries the potential to revolutionize the field of drug discovery and development and environmental risk. Overall, this review tried to summarize the recent developments in the in-silico models, building of qAOPs and use of machine learning for improving existing models, along with a regulatory perspective. This review can act as a guide for toxicologists who wish to build their careers in kinetic modeling.

Refinement and calibration of a human PBPK model for the plasticiser, Di-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP) using in silico, in vitro and human biomonitoring data

An existing physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for Di-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP) was refined to improve the simulations of the venous blood concentrations of the primary monoester metabolite, mono-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (MPHP). This was considered a significant deficiency that should be addressed because the primary metabolite of other high molecular weight phthalates has been associated with toxicity. The various processes that influence the concentration of DPHP and MPHP in blood were re-evaluated and modified. A few simplifications of the existing model were made, including the removal of enterohepatic recirculation (EHR) of MPHP. However, the primary development was describing the partial binding of MPHP to plasma proteins following uptake of DPHP and metabolism in the gut affording better simulation of the trends observed in the biological monitoring data. Secondly, the relationship between blood concentrations and the urinary excretion of secondary metabolites was explored further because the availability of two data streams provides a better understanding of the kinetics than reliance on just one. Most human studies are conducted with few volunteers and generally with the absence of blood metabolite measurements which would likely imply an incomplete understanding of the kinetics. This has important implications for the "read across" approach proposed as part of the development of New Approach Methods for the replacement of animals in chemical safety assessments. This is where the endpoint of a target chemical is predicted by using data for the same endpoint from another more "data rich" source chemical. Validation of a model parameterized entirely with in vitro and in silico derived parameters and calibrated against several data streams would constitute a data rich source chemical and afford more confidence for future evaluations of other similar chemicals using the read-across approach.

Health Risk Assessment of Ortho-Toluidine Utilising Human Biomonitoring Data of Workers and the General Population

The aim of this work was to demonstrate how human biomonitoring (HBM) data can be used to assess cancer risks for workers and the general population. Ortho-toluidine, OT (CAS 95-53-4) is an aniline derivative which is an animal and human carcinogen and may cause methemoglobinemia. OT is used as a curing agent in epoxy resins and as intermediate in producing herbicides, dyes, and rubber chemicals. A risk assessment was performed for OT by using existing HBM studies. The urinary mass-balance methodology and generic exposure reconstruction PBPK modelling were both used for the estimation of the external intake levels corresponding to observed urinary levels. The external exposures were subsequently compared to cancer risk levels obtained from the evaluation by the Scientific Committee on Occupational Exposure Limits (SCOEL). It was estimated that workers exposed to OT have a cancer risk of 60 to 90:106 in the worst-case scenario (0.9 mg/L in urine). The exposure levels and cancer risk of OT in the general population were orders of magnitude lower when compared to workers. The difference between the output of urinary mass-balance method and the general PBPK model was approximately 30%. The external exposure levels calculated based on HBM data were below the binding occupational exposure level (0.5 mg/m3) set under the EU Carcinogens and Mutagens Directive.

Derivation of a Human In Vivo Benchmark Dose for Bisphenol A from ToxCast In Vitro Concentration Response Data Using a Computational Workflow for Probabilistic Quantitative In Vitro to In Vivo Extrapolation

A computational workflow which integrates physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling; global sensitivity analysis (GSA), Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and the Virtual Cell Based Assay (VCBA) for the estimation of the active, free in vitro concentration of chemical in the reaction medium was developed to facilitate quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE). The workflow was designed to estimate parameter and model uncertainty within a computationally efficient framework. The workflow was tested using a human PBK model for bisphenol A (BPA) and high throughput screening (HTS) in vitro concentration-response data, for estrogen and pregnane X receptor activation determined in human liver and kidney cell lines, from the ToxCast/Tox21 database. In vivo benchmark dose 10% lower confidence limits (BMDL₁₀) for oral uptake of BPA (ng/kg BW/day) were calculated from the in vivo dose-responses and compared to the human equivalent dose (HED) BMDL₁₀ for relative kidney weight change in the mouse derived by European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Three from four in vivo BMDL₁₀ values calculated in this study were similar to the EFSA values whereas the fourth was much smaller. The derivation of an uncertainty factor (UF) to accommodate the uncertainties associated with measurements using human cell lines in vitro, extrapolated to in vivo, could be useful for the derivation of Health Based Guidance Values (HBGV).

An integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic modeling framework for assessing population-scale risks of phthalates and their substitutes

To effectively incorporate in vitro-in silico-based methods into the regulation of consumer product safety, a quantitative connection between product phthalate concentrations and in vitro bioactivity data must be established for the general population. We developed, evaluated, and demonstrated a modeling framework that integrates exposure and pharmacokinetic models to convert product phthalate concentrations into population-scale risks for phthalates and their substitutes. A probabilistic exposure model was developed to generate the distribution of multi-route exposures based on product phthalate concentrations, chemical properties, and human activities. Pharmacokinetic models were developed to simulate population toxicokinetics using Bayesian analysis via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Both exposure and pharmacokinetic models demonstrated good predictive capability when compared with worldwide studies. The distributions of exposures and pharmacokinetics were integrated to predict the population distributions of internal dosimetry. The predicted distributions showed reasonable agreement with the U.S. biomonitoring surveys of urinary metabolites. The "source-to-outcome" local sensitivity analysis revealed that food contact materials had the greatest impact on body burden for di(2-ethylhexyl) adipate (DEHA), di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), di(isononyl) cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH), and di(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP), whereas the body burden of diethyl phthalate (DEP) was most sensitive to the concentration in personal care products. The upper bounds of predicted plasma concentrations showed no overlap with ToxCast in vitro bioactivity values. Compared with the in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) approach, the integrated modeling framework has significant advantages in mapping product phthalate concentrations to multi-route risks, and thus is of great significance for regulatory use with a relatively low input requirement. Further integration with new approach methodologies will facilitate these in vitro-in silico-based risk assessments for a broad range of products containing an equally broad range of chemicals.

Development, Testing, Parameterisation and Calibration of a Human PBPK Model for the Plasticiser, Di-(2-propylheptyl) Phthalate (DPHP) Using in Silico, in vitro and Human Biomonitoring Data

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for Di-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP) was developed to interpret the biokinetics in humans after single oral doses. The model was parameterized with in vitro and in silico derived parameters and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was used during the model development process to assess structure, biological plausibility and behaviour prior to simulation and analysis of human biological monitoring data. To provide possible explanations for some of the counter-intuitive behaviour of the biological monitoring data the model included a simple lymphatic uptake process for DPHP and enterohepatic recirculation (EHR) for DPHP and the mono ester metabolite mono-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (MPHP). The model was used to simultaneously simulate the concentration-time profiles of blood DPHP, MPHP and the urinary excretion of two metabolites, mono-(2-propyl-6-hydroxyheptyl) phthalate (OH-MPHP) and mono-(2-propyl-6-carboxyhexyl) phthalate (cx-MPHP). The availability of blood and urine measurements permitted a more robust qualitative and quantitative investigation of the importance of EHR and lymphatic uptake. Satisfactory prediction of blood DPHP and urinary metabolites was obtained whereas blood MPHP was less satisfactory. However, the delayed peak of DPHP concentration relative to MPHP in blood and second order metabolites in urine could be explained as a result of three processes: 1) DPHP entering the systemic circulation from the lymph, 2) rapid and very high protein binding and 3) the efficiency of the liver in removing DPHP absorbed via the hepatic route. The use of sensitivity analysis is considered important in the evaluation of uncertainty around in vitro and in silico derived parameters. By quantifying their impact on model output sufficient confidence in the use of a model should be afforded. This approach could expand the use of PBPK models since parameterization with in silico techniques allows for rapid model development. This in turn could assist in reducing the use of animals in toxicological evaluations by enhancing the utility of “read across” techniques.

Derivation of a Human In Vivo Benchmark Dose for Perfluorooctanoic Acid From ToxCast In Vitro Concentration-Response Data Using a Computational Workflow for Probabilistic Quantitative In Vitro to In Vivo Extrapolation

A computational workflow which integrates physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modeling, global sensitivity analysis (GSA), approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was developed to facilitate quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE). The workflow accounts for parameter and model uncertainty within a computationally efficient framework. The workflow was tested using a human PBK model for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and high throughput screening (HTS) in vitro concentration–response data, determined in a human liver cell line, from the ToxCast/Tox21 database. In vivo benchmark doses (BMDs) for PFOA intake (ng/kg BW/day) and drinking water exposure concentrations (µg/L) were calculated from the in vivo dose responses and compared to intake values derived by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The intake benchmark dose lower confidence limit (BMDL₅) of 0.82 was similar to 0.86 ng/kg BW/day for altered serum cholesterol levels derived by EFSA, whereas the intake BMDL₅ of 6.88 was six-fold higher than the value of 1.14 ng/kg BW/day for altered antibody titer also derived by the EFSA. Application of a chemical-specific adjustment factor (CSAF) of 1.4, allowing for inter-individual variability in kinetics, based on biological half-life, gave an intake BMDL₅ of 0.59 for serum cholesterol and 4.91 (ng/kg BW/day), for decreased antibody titer, which were 0.69 and 4.31 the EFSA-derived values, respectively. The corresponding BMDL₅ for drinking water concentrations, for estrogen receptor binding activation associated with breast cancer, pregnane X receptor binding associated with altered serum cholesterol levels, thyroid hormone receptor α binding leading to thyroid disease, and decreased antibody titer (pro-inflammation from cytokines) were 0.883, 0.139, 0.086, and 0.295 ng/ml, respectively, with application of no uncertainty factors. These concentrations are 5.7-, 36-, 58.5-, and 16.9-fold lower than the median measured drinking water level for the general US population which is approximately, 5 ng/ml.

Considerations and Caveats when Applying Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods to Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models

Three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods (Morris, Sobol and extended Sobol) are applied to a minimal physiologically based PK (mPBPK) model using three model drugs given orally, namely quinidine, alprazolam, and midazolam. We investigated how correlations among input parameters affect the determination of the key parameters influencing pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of general interest, i.e., the maximal plasma concentration (C_max) time at which C_max is reached (T_max), and area under plasma concentration (AUC). The influential parameters determined by the Morris and Sobol methods (suitable for independent model parameters) were compared to those determined by the extended Sobol method (which considers model parameter correlations). For the three drugs investigated, the Morris method was as informative as the Sobol method. The extended Sobol method identified different sets of influential parameters to Morris and Sobol. These methods overestimated the influence of volume of distribution at steady state (V_ss) on AUC24h for quinidine and alprazolam. They also underestimated the effect of volume of liver (V_liver) for all three drugs, the impact of enzyme intrinsic clearance of CYP2C9 and CYP2E1 for quinidine, and that of UGT1A4 abundance for midazolam. Our investigation showed that the interpretation of GSA results is not straightforward. Dismissing existing model parameter correlations, GSA methods such as Morris and Sobol can lead to biased determination of the key parameters for the selected outputs of interest. Decisions regarding parameters’ influence (or otherwise) should be made in light of available knowledge including the model assumptions, GSA method limitations, and inter-correlations between model parameters, particularly in complex models.

pksensi: An R package to apply global sensitivity analysis in physiologically based kinetic modeling

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an essential tool for modelers to understand the influence of model parameters on model outputs. It is also increasingly used in developing and assessing physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models. For instance, several studies have applied global SA to reduce the computational burden in the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo-based calibration process PBK models. Although several SA algorithms and software packages are available, no comprehensive software package exists that allows users to seamlessly solve differential equations in a PBK model, conduct and visualize SA results, and discriminate between the non-influential model parameters that can be fixed and those that need calibration. Therefore, we developed an R package, named pksensi, to make global SA more accessible in PBK modeling. This package can investigate both uncertainty and sensitivity in PBK models, including those with multivariate model outputs. It also includes functions to check the convergence of the global SA results. Overall, pksensi improves the user experience of performing global SA and can create robust and reproducible results for decision making in PBK model calibration.

Development, Testing, Parameterization, and Calibration of a Human Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for the Plasticizer, Hexamoll® Diisononyl-Cyclohexane-1, 2-Dicarboxylate Using In Silico, In Vitro, and Human Biomonitoring Data

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for Hexamoll^® diisononyl-cyclohexane-1, 2-dicarboxylate was developed to interpret the biokinetics in humans after single oral doses. The model was parameterized with in vitro and in silico derived parameters and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was used during the model development process to assess structure, biological plausibility and behavior prior to simulation and analysis of human biological monitoring data. The model provided good simulations of the urinary excretion (Curine) of two metabolites; cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid mono hydroxyisononyl ester (OH-MINCH) and cyclohexane-1, 2-dicarboxylic acid mono carboxyisononyl ester (cx-MINCH) from the biotransformation of mono-isononyl-cyclohexane-1, 2-dicarboxylate (MINCH), the monoester metabolite of di-isononyl-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate. However, good simulations could be obtained, with and without, a lymphatic compartment. Selection of an appropriate model structure was informed by sensitivity analysis which could identify and quantify the contribution to variability in Curine by parameters, such as, the fraction of oral dose that directly entered the lymphatic compartment and therefore by-passed the liver and the fraction of MINCH bio-transformed to cx-MINCH and OH-MINCH. By constraining these parameters within biologically plausible limits the presence of a lymphatic compartment was deemed an important component of model structure. Furthermore, the use of sensitivity analysis is important in the evaluation of uncertainty around in silico derived parameters. By quantifying their impact on model output sufficient confidence in the use of a model should be afforded. This type of approach could expand the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models since parameterization with in silico techniques allows for rapid model development. This in turn could assist in reducing the use of animals in toxicological evaluations by enhancing the utility of “read across” techniques.

Challenges Associated With Applying Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Public Health Decision-Making

The development and application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in chemical toxicology have grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. However, critical evaluation of PBPK models to support public health decision-making across federal agencies has thus far occurred for only a few environmental chemicals. In order to encourage decision-makers to embrace the critical role of PBPK modeling in risk assessment, several important challenges require immediate attention from the modeling community. The objective of this contemporary review is to highlight 3 of these challenges, including: (1) difficulties in recruiting peer reviewers with appropriate modeling expertise and experience; (2) lack of confidence in PBPK models for which no tissue/plasma concentration data exist for model evaluation; and (3) lack of transferability across modeling platforms. Several recommendations for addressing these 3 issues are provided to initiate dialog among members of the PBPK modeling community, as these issues must be overcome for the field of PBPK modeling to advance and for PBPK models to be more routinely applied in support of public health decision-making.

Advancing internal exposure and physiologically-based toxicokinetic modeling for 21st-century risk assessments

Scientifically sound, risk-informed evaluation of chemicals is essential to protecting public health. Systematically leveraging information from exposure, toxicology, and epidemiology studies can provide a holistic understanding of how real-world exposure to chemicals may impact the health of populations, including sensitive and vulnerable individuals and life-stages. Increasingly, public health policy makers are employing toxicokinetic (TK) modeling tools to integrate these data streams and predict potential human health impact. Development of a suite of tools for predicting internal exposure, including physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models, is being driven by needs to address large numbers of data-poor chemicals efficiently, translate bioactivity, and mechanistic information from new in vitro test systems, and integrate multiple lines of evidence to enable scientifically sound, risk-informed decisions. New modeling approaches are being designed "fit for purpose" to inform specific decision contexts, with applications ranging from rapid screening of hundreds of chemicals, to improved prediction of risks during sensitive stages of development. New data are being generated experimentally and computationally to support these models. Progress to meet the demand for internal exposure and PBTK modeling tools will require transparent publication of models and data to build credibility in results, as well as opportunities to partner with decision makers to evaluate and build confidence in use of these for improved decisions that promote safe use of chemicals.

A Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling Approach Using Biomonitoring Data in Order to Assess the Contribution of Drinking Water for the Achievement of an Optimal Fluoride Dose for Dental Health in Children

Due to an optimal fluoride concentration in drinking water advised for caries prevention purposes, the population is now exposed to multiple sources of fluoride. The availability of population biomonitoring data currently allow us to evaluate the magnitude of this exposure. The objective of this work was, therefore, to use such data in order to estimate whether community water fluoridation still represents a significant contribution toward achieving a suggested daily optimal fluoride (external) intake of 0.05 mg/kg/day. Therefore, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for fluoride published in the literature was used and adapted in Excel for a typical 4-year-old and 8-year-old child. Biomonitoring data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey among people living in provinces with very different drinking water fluoridation coverage (Quebec, 2.5%; Ontario, 70% of the population) were analyzed using this adapted model. Absorbed doses for the 4-year-old and 8-year-old children were, respectively, 0.03 mg/kg/day and 0.02 mg/kg/day in Quebec and of 0.06 mg/kg/day and 0.05 mg/kg/day in Ontario. These results show that community water fluoridation contributes to increased fluoride intake among children, which leads to reaching, and in some cases even exceeding, the suggested optimal absorbed dose of 0.04 mg/kg/day, which corresponds to the suggested optimal fluoride intake mentioned above. In conclusion, this study constitutes an incentive to further explore the multiple sources of fluoride intake and suggests that a new balance between them including drinking water should be examined in accordance with the age-related physiological differences that influence fluoride metabolism.

Applying a Global Sensitivity Analysis Workflow to Improve the Computational Efficiencies in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

Traditionally, the solution to reduce parameter dimensionality in a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model is through expert judgment. However, this approach may lead to bias in parameter estimates and model predictions if important parameters are fixed at uncertain or inappropriate values. The purpose of this study was to explore the application of global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to ascertain which parameters in the PBPK model are non-influential, and therefore can be assigned fixed values in Bayesian parameter estimation with minimal bias. We compared the elementary effect-based Morris method and three variance-based Sobol indices in their ability to distinguish “influential” parameters to be estimated and “non-influential” parameters to be fixed. We illustrated this approach using a published human PBPK model for acetaminophen (APAP) and its two primary metabolites APAP-glucuronide and APAP-sulfate. We first applied GSA to the original published model, comparing Bayesian model calibration results using all the 21 originally calibrated model parameters (OMP, determined by “expert judgment”-based approach) vs. the subset of original influential parameters (OIP, determined by GSA from the OMP). We then applied GSA to all the PBPK parameters, including those fixed in the published model, comparing the model calibration results using this full set of 58 model parameters (FMP) vs. the full set influential parameters (FIP, determined by GSA from FMP). We also examined the impact of different cut-off points to distinguish the influential and non-influential parameters. We found that Sobol indices calculated by eFAST provided the best combination of reliability (consistency with other variance-based methods) and efficiency (lowest computational cost to achieve convergence) in identifying influential parameters. We identified several originally calibrated parameters that were not influential, and could be fixed to improve computational efficiency without discernable changes in prediction accuracy or precision. We further found six previously fixed parameters that were actually influential to the model predictions. Adding these additional influential parameters improved the model performance beyond that of the original publication while maintaining similar computational efficiency. We conclude that GSA provides an objective, transparent, and reproducible approach to improve the performance and computational efficiency of PBPK models.

A Computational Workflow for Probabilistic Quantitative in Vitro to in Vivo Extrapolation

A computational workflow was developed to facilitate the process of quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE), specifically the translation of in vitro concentration-response to in vivo dose-response relationships and subsequent derivation of a benchmark dose value (BMD). The workflow integrates physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling; global sensitivity analysis (GSA), Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. For a given set of in vitro concentration and response data the algorithm returns the posterior distribution of the corresponding in vivo, population-based dose-response values, for a given route of exposure. The novel aspect of the workflow is a rigorous statistical framework for accommodating uncertainty in both the parameters of the PBPK model (both parameter uncertainty and population variability) and in the structure of the PBPK model itself recognizing that the model is an approximation to reality. Both these sources of uncertainty propagate through the workflow and are quantified within the posterior distribution of in vivo dose for a fixed representative in vitro concentration. To demonstrate this process and for comparative purposes a similar exercise to previously published work describing the kinetics of ethylene glycol monoethyl ether (EGME) and its embryotoxic metabolite methoxyacetic acid (MAA) in rats was undertaken. The computational algorithm can be used to extrapolate from in vitro data to any organism, including human. Ultimately, this process will be incorporated into a user-friendly, freely available modeling platform, currently under development, that will simplify the process of QIVIVE.

Animal-Free Chemical Safety Assessment

The exponential growth of the Internet of Things and the global popularity and remarkable decline in cost of the mobile phone is driving the digital transformation of medical practice. The rapidly maturing digital, non-medical world of mobile (wireless) devices, cloud computing and social networking is coalescing with the emerging digital medical world of omics data, biosensors and advanced imaging which offers the increasingly realistic prospect of personalized medicine. Described as a potential “seismic” shift from the current “healthcare” model to a “wellness” paradigm that is predictive, preventative, personalized and participatory, this change is based on the development of increasingly sophisticated biosensors which can track and measure key biochemical variables in people. Additional key drivers in this shift are metabolomic and proteomic signatures, which are increasingly being reported as pre-symptomatic, diagnostic and prognostic of toxicity and disease. These advancements also have profound implications for toxicological evaluation and safety assessment of pharmaceuticals and environmental chemicals. An approach based primarily on human in vivo and high-throughput in vitro human cell-line data is a distinct possibility. This would transform current chemical safety assessment practice which operates in a human “data poor” to a human “data rich” environment. This could also lead to a seismic shift from the current animal-based to an animal-free chemical safety assessment paradigm.

The European Long-range Research Initiative (LRI): A decade of contributions to human health protection, exposure modelling and environmental integrity

The European Long-range Research Initiative (LRI) was launched in 2000. The objective of this programme is to provide increased understanding of the potential impact of chemicals on human health and the environment. The aim has been to reduce uncertainty associated with innovation, and to promote evidence-based decision making. In pursuing these objectives the LRI has commissioned independent scientific research in institutions throughout Europe and beyond. The portfolio of research supported by the LRI has delivered significant contributions to risk assessment sciences. In addition, the LRI programme has benefited the broader scientific community. In this review article members of the Cefic European Scientific Advisory Panel (ESAP), the body charged with providing oversight of the LRI programme, illustrate some of those achievements by reference to specific areas of research (respiratory allergy, human biomonitoring, environment and wildlife), and also the contribution made to the development of European scientists through the annual LRI Award Programme.

A probabilistic model of human variability in physiology for future application to dose reconstruction and QIVIVE

The risk assessment of environmental chemicals and drugs is undergoing a paradigm shift in approach which seeks the full replacement of animal testing with high throughput, mechanistic, in vitro systems. This new approach will be reliant on the measurement in vitro, of concentration-dependent responses where prolonged excessive perturbations of specific biochemical pathways are likely to lead to adverse health effects in an intact organism. Such an approach requires a framework, into which disparate data generated by in vitro, in silico, and in chemico systems can be integrated and utilized for quantitative in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE), ultimately to the human population level. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are ideally suited to this and are needed to translate in vitro concentration- response relationships to an exposure or dose, route and duration regime in human populations. Thus, a realistic description of the variation in the physiology of the human population being modeled is critical. Whilst various studies in the past decade have made progress in describing human variability, the algorithms are typically coded in computer programs and as such are unsuitable for reverse dosimetry. In this report we overcome this limitation by developing a hierarchical statistical model using standard probability distributions for the specification of a virtual US and UK human population. The work draws on information from both population databases and cadaver studies.

Breath analysis: technical developments and challenges in the monitoring of human exposure to volatile organic compounds

At present, there is a growing concern about human quality of life. In particular, there is an awareness of the impact of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) on the environment and human health, so the monitoring of human exposure to VOCs is an increasingly urgent need. Biomonitoring is theoretically more accurate compared with traditional ambient air monitoring, and it plays an essential role in human environmental exposure assessment. Breath analysis is a biomonitoring method with many advantages, which is applicable to assessments of human exposure to a large number of VOCs. Techniques are being developed to improve the sensitivity and precision of breath analysis based on in-direct and direct measurements which will be reviewed in this paper. This paper briefly reviews the frequently used methods in both of these categories, specifically highlighting some promising new techniques. Furthermore, this review also provides theoretical background knowledge about the use of breath analysis as a biomonitoring tool for human exposure assessment. A review of the application of breath analysis to human exposure monitoring during last two decades is also provided according to occupational/non-occupational exposure. Obstacles and potential challenges in this field are also summarized. Based on the gradual improvements in the theoretical basis and technology reviewed in this paper, breath analysis is an enormous potential approach for the monitoring of human exposure to VOCs.

The application of global sensitivity analysis in the development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for m-xylene and ethanol co-exposure in humans

Global sensitivity analysis (SA) was used during the development phase of a binary chemical physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used for the analysis of m-xylene and ethanol co-exposure in humans. SA was used to identify those parameters which had the most significant impact on variability of venous blood and exhaled m-xylene and urinary excretion of the major metabolite of m-xylene metabolism, 3-methyl hippuric acid. This analysis informed the selection of parameters for estimation/calibration by fitting to measured biological monitoring (BM) data in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Data generated in controlled human studies were shown to be useful for investigating the structure and quantitative outputs of PBPK models as well as the biological plausibility and variability of parameters for which measured values were not available. This approach ensured that a priori knowledge in the form of prior distributions was ascribed only to those parameters that were identified as having the greatest impact on variability. This is an efficient approach which helps reduce computational cost.

Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis.

Characterization of the human kinetic adjustment factor for the health risk assessment of environmental contaminants

A default uncertainty factor of 3.16 (√10) is applied to account for interindividual variability in toxicokinetics when performing non-cancer risk assessments. Using relevant human data for specific chemicals, as WHO/IPCS suggests, it is possible to evaluate, and replace when appropriate, this default factor by quantifying chemical-specific adjustment factors for interindividual variability in toxicokinetics (also referred to as the human kinetic adjustment factor, HKAF). The HKAF has been determined based on the distributions of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., half-life, area under the curve, maximum blood concentration) in relevant populations. This article focuses on the current state of knowledge of the use of physiologically based algorithms and models in characterizing the HKAF for environmental contaminants. The recent modeling efforts on the computation of HKAF as a function of the characteristics of the population, chemical and its mode of action (dose metrics), as well as exposure scenario of relevance to the assessment are reviewed here. The results of these studies, taken together, suggest the HKAF varies as a function of the sensitive subpopulation and dose metrics of interest, exposure conditions considered (route, duration, and intensity), metabolic pathways involved and theoretical model underlying its computation. The HKAF seldom exceeded the default value of 3.16, except in very young children (i.e., <≈ 3 months) and when the parent compound is the toxic moiety. Overall, from a public health perspective, the current state of knowledge generally suggest that the default uncertainty factor is sufficient to account for human variability in non-cancer risk assessments of environmental contaminants.

PopGen: A virtual human population generator

The risk assessment of environmental chemicals and drugs is moving towards a paradigm shift in approach which seeks the full replacement animal testing with high throughput, mechanistic, in vitro systems. This new vision will be reliant on the measurement in vitro, of concentration-dependent responses where prolonged excessive perturbations of specific biochemical pathways are likely to lead to adverse health effects in an intact organism. Such an approach requires a framework, into which disparate data generated using in vitro, in silico and in chemico systems, can be integrated and utilised for quantitative in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE), ultimately to the human population level. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are ideally suited for this and are obligatory in order to translate in vitro concentration-response relationships to an exposure or dose, route and duration regime in people. In this report we describe PopGen, a virtual human population generator which is a user friendly, open access web-based application for the prediction of realistic anatomical, physiological and phase 1 metabolic variation in a wide range of healthy human populations. We demonstrate how PopGen can be used for QIVIVE by providing input to a PBPK model, at an appropriate level of detail, to reconstruct exposure from human biomonitoring data. We discuss how the process of exposure reconstruction from blood biomarkers, in general, is analogous to exposure or dose reconstruction from concentration-response measurements made in proposed in vitro cell based systems which are assumed to be surrogates for target organs.