How Many Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Meet the Inclusion Criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcome Trials with SGLT2 Inhibitors? Estimations from a Population Database in a Mediterranean Area

Do patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus included in randomised clinical trials differ from general-practice patients? A cross-sectional comparative study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in general practice and those included in randomised controlled trials on which clinical practice guidelines are based.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional comparative study.

SETTING

We asked 45 general practitioners from three French Departments to identify the 15 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus they most recently saw in consultation. In parallel, we selected randomised controlled trials included in the Cochrane systematic review on which the clinical practice guidelines for type 2 diabetes mellitus were based.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 675 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and data were collected from 23 randomised controlled trials, corresponding to 36 059 patients.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Characteristics of general-practice patients were extracted from medical records by a unique observer. The same baseline characteristics of patients included in randomised controlled trials from the Cochrane systematic review were extracted and meta-analysed. We assessed standardised differences between these two series of baseline characteristics. A difference greater than 0.10 in absolute value was considered meaningful.

RESULTS

General-practice patients were older than randomised controlled trial patients (mean (SD) 68.8 (1.1) vs 59.9 years (standardised difference 0.8)) and had a higher body mass index (mean (SD) 31.5 (6.9) vs 28.2 kg/m2 (standardised difference 0.5)) but smoked less (11.0% vs 29.3% (standardised difference -0.6)). They more frequently used antihypertensive drugs (82.1% vs 37.5% (standardised difference 1.2)) but less frequently had a myocardial infarction (7.6% vs 23.1% (standardised difference -1.1)).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus cared for in general practice differ in a number of important aspects from patients included in randomised controlled trials on which clinical practice guidelines are based. This situation hampers the applicability of these guidelines. Future randomised trials should include patients who better fit the 'average' general-practice patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus to help improve the translation of study findings in daily practice.

Comparative effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, DPP-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas on risk of major adverse cardiovascular events: emulation of a randomised target trial using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Randomised clinical trials showed that compared with placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced risk of adverse cardiovascular events. The evidence base for the older antihyperglycaemic drug classes (DPP-4 inhibitors and sulfonylureas) is generally less well developed. Because most randomised trials evaluated one antihyperglycaemic medication versus placebo, a head-to-head comparative effectiveness analysis of the newer drug classes (SGLT2 inhibitors vs GLP-1 receptor agonists) or newer (SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists) versus older (DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas) drug classes on risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is not available. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of incident use of SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, DPP-4 inhibitors, or sulfonylureas on risk of MACE.

METHODS

We first specified the protocol of a four-arm randomised pragmatic clinical trial and then emulated it using the health-care databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs. We built a cohort of metformin users with incident use of SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, DPP-4 inhibitors, or sulfonylureas between Oct 1, 2016 and Sept 30, 2021, and followed up until Dec 31, 2022. We used the overlap weighting approach to balance the treatment groups using a battery of predefined variables and a set of algorithmically selected variables from high-dimensional data domains. Both intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses (the latter estimated the effect of maintained use of the antihyperglycaemic throughout follow-up) were conducted to estimate risk of MACE-defined as a composite endpoint of stroke, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

The final cohort consisted of 283 998 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (n=46 516), GLP-1 receptor agonists (n=26 038), DPP-4 inhibitors (n=55 310), or sulfonylureas (n=156 134). In intention-to-treat analyses, compared with sulfonylureas, SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with lower risk of MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 0·77 [95% CI 0·74-0.80], 0·78 [0·74-0·81), and 0·90 [0·86-0.93], respectively). Both SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists were associated with a lower risk of MACE when compared with DPP-4 inhibitors (HR 0·86 [0·82-0·89] and 0·86 [0·82-0·90], respectively). The risk of MACE between SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists yielded an HR of 0·99 (0·94-1·04). In per-protocol analyses, compared with sulfonylureas, SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP1 receptor agonists, and DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with reduced risk of MACE (HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·73-0·82], 0·77 [0·72-0·82], and 0·88 [0·83-0·93], respectively). Both SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists were associated with a lower risk of MACE when compared with DPP-4 inhibitors (HR 0·88 [0·83-0·93] and 0·88 [0·82-0·93], respectively). The risk of MACE between SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists yielded an HR of 1·01 (0·94-1·07).

INTERPRETATION

Both SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists were associated with reduced risk of MACE compared with DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas. DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with reduced risk of MACE compared with sulfonylureas. There was no statistically significant difference in risk of MACE between SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists. The results provide evidence of the real-world comparative effectiveness of the four most commonly used second-line antihyperglycaemics and could guide choice of antihyperglycaemic therapy.

FUNDING

US Department of Veterans Affairs and the American Society of Nephrology.

Findings of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitor Kidney Outcome Trials Applied to a Canadian Chronic Kidney Disease Population: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

The canagliflozin and renal endpoints in diabetes with established nephropathy clinical evaluation (CREDENCE) and dapagliflozin and prevention of adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease (DAPA-CKD) trials have demonstrated significant kidney benefits with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors. SGLT2 inhibitors are now standard of care for patients with diabetic kidney disease and have also been shown to be effective in those with albuminuric CKD with or without diabetes.

Objective

We sought to determine how many patients in nephrology care in British Columbia, Canada, would have been eligible for those trials, to compare rates of outcomes, and to estimate cost avoidance arising from widespread use of SGLT2 inhibitors in this cohort.

Study design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

British Columbia, Canada.

Participants

CKD patients followed in the Kidney Care Clinics in British Columbia.

Measurements

We compared the outcomes of kidney failure, sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <15 mL/min/1.73 m², dialysis, transplant, death from any cause, and doubling of serum creatinine. We also compared the composite outcome of kidney failure and doubling of serum creatinine.

Methods

The cohort was derived using a provincial database by combining the inclusion criteria of CREDENCE and DAPA-CKD trials. We included adult patients aged ≥18 years, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥20 mg/mmol, and eGFR between 25 and 90 mL/min/1.73 m², between April 1, 2014 and March 31, 2017. The primary outcome was compared with the outcomes experienced in the placebo arms of CREDENCE and DAPA-CKD. The composite outcome stratified by eGFR categories were compared in the British Columbia cohort and the CREDENCE trial. Cost avoidance was estimated based on the number needed to treat to prevent one instance of kidney failure.

Results

A total of 17.5% (3138/17 963) of patients were eligible, resulting in a cohort with a mean age of 69.7 years and 38% women. The eGFR slope of the British Columbia cohort was -4.21 ± 0.47 mL/min. The mean eGFR was 37.0 mL/min/1.73 m², median UACR was 55.3 mg/mmol, and use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors was 56.6%. The British Columbia cohort experienced nearly double the outcomes of kidney failure, death from any cause, and doubling of serum creatinine than the placebo arms of CREDENCE and DAPA-CKD. When stratified by eGFR, the British Columbia cohort and the CREDENCE placebo arm had similar event rates for those with an eGFR <45 mL/min but there were still higher rates of outcome in the greater than 45 mL/min eGFR groups in the British Columbia cohort. Treating the British Columbia cohort with canagliflozin could lead to net cost avoidance of $2.31 million over 2.6 years.

Limitations

The database only captures those referred to the Kidney Care Clinics by nephrologists, which may lead to selection bias of higher risk patients in the British Columbia cohort. The cost avoidance analysis was a limited high-level analysis.

Conclusions

The British Columbia cohort represents a high-risk group in whom implementation of the use of SGLT2 inhibitors may well improve outcomes and reduce health care system costs.

Is HbA1c a valid surrogate for mortality in type 2 diabetes? Evidence from a meta-analysis of randomized trials

AIMS

Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) has been repeatedly questioned as a valid surrogate marker, especially for patient-relevant outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate the HbA1c value as a surrogate for all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The effect estimates for HbA1c lowering after treatment as well as reductions in all-cause mortality of randomized trials were extracted from a systematic review and updated. For the measurement of actual surrogacy, weighted linear regression models with a random intercept for the study effect were used with the all-cause mortality estimate (risk difference and log relative risk) as the outcome and the estimate for HbA1c difference as the covariate. Surrogacy was assessed according to the criteria of Daniels and Hughes.

RESULTS

A total of 346 HbA1c-mortality-pairs from 205 single randomized trials were included in the analysis. Regarding the risk difference of all-cause mortality, there was no evidence for surrogacy of the HbA1c value. For the log relative risk, a small positive association between HbA1c and the all-cause mortality estimate (slope 0.129 [95% confidence interval -0.043; 0.302]) was observed. However, there was no sign of valid surrogacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of more than 200 randomized trials, HbA1c is not a valid surrogate marker for all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: results of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin, as an add-on therapy to standard of care (SoC), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Spain, based on the results of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model (Cardiff T2DM) based on the data observed in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial was adapted to the Spanish setting to estimate the costs and health outcomes of treatment with dapagliflozin in patients with T2DM who had or were at risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Macrovascular events (hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and unstable angina), end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality were modeled according to the survival equations of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 study. Microvascular events (blindness and ulcers) were estimated based on the risk equations of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. The analysis was conducted from the Spanish National Health System perspective and the time horizon was 30 years. The results were evaluated in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Only direct health costs were included, and a 3% discount rate was applied to costs and health outcomes. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were made to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

In the main analysis, dapagliflozin was a dominant therapeutic option compared with placebo, with greater effectiveness (0.08 QALYs) and lower associated total costs per patient (€ -2,921). The univariate sensitivity analysis and the PSA confirmed the robustness of the results. The PSA showed the probability that dapagliflozin was a dominant alternative compared with placebo was 84.2% and that it was cost-effective of 92.1%, under a willingness-to-pay of € 20,000/QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of data from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial shows that dapagliflozin would be a cost-effective option in Spain for the treatment of adult patients with T2DM, as an add-on therapy to SoC, compared with placebo.

Population stratification in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review

AIMS

There is increasing interest in using stratification in type 2 diabetes to target resources, individualise care and improve outcomes. We aim to systematically review and collate literature that has utilised population stratification methods in the study of adults with type 2 diabetes; and to describe and compare stratification methodologies, population characteristics, variables used to stratify and outcome variables.

METHODS

The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane databases were searched from inception to July 2020. Studies included adults with type 2 diabetes using population stratification methods. The review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (ID: CRD42020206604) and conducted in line with PRISMA guidance. Extracted data included study aims; study setting (primary or secondary care); population characteristics; stratification variables and outcomes; and methodological approach to stratification.

RESULTS

Across 348 included studies, there were a total of 10,776,009 participants with a mean age of 61.0 years (SD 5.94). 6.7% of studies used data-driven methods and the rest employed expert-driven approaches using pre-defined stratification criteria. The commonest variable used to stratify populations was HbA_1c (n = 57, 16.4%); few studies stratified using clinically important non-traditional variables such as health behaviours and beliefs.

CONCLUSIONS

Most studies performing population stratification in type 2 diabetes used expert-driven approaches with the aim of predicting outcomes in glycaemic control, mortality and cardiovascular complications. We identified relatively few studies using data-driven approaches, which offer opportunities generate hypotheses beyond current expert knowledge. We describe important research gaps including stratification with regard to disease remission.

A registry-based randomised trial comparing an SGLT2 inhibitor and metformin as standard treatment of early stage type 2 diabetes (SMARTEST): Rationale, design and protocol

AIM

SGLT2 inhibitors have been shown to reduce cardiovascular and renal complications in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients at high cardiovascular risk. Metformin is currently widely used as initial monotherapy in T2D but lacks convincing data to show that it reduces risk of complications. We aim to compare the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin and metformin as first-line T2D medication with regard to development of complications in a registry-based randomised controlled trial.

METHODS

The SGLT2 inhibitor or metformin as standard treatment of early stage type 2 diabetes (SMARTEST) trial will enrol 4300 subjects at 30-40 study sites in Sweden who will be randomised 1:1 to either metformin or dapagliflozin. Participants must have T2D duration <4 years, no prior cardiovascular disease, and be either drug-naïve or on monotherapy for T2D.

RESULTS

The primary endpoint is a composite of all-cause death, major adverse cardiovascular events and occurrence or progression of microvascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, diabetic foot lesions). Secondary endpoints include individual components of the primary endpoint, start of insulin therapy, risk factor biomarkers, patient-reported outcome measures, and cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes will primarily be assessed using nationwide healthcare registries.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMARTEST trial will investigate whether dapagliflozin is superior to metformin in preventing complications in early stage T2D. (Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03982381, EudraCT 2019-001046-17).

External applicability of SGLT2 inhibitor cardiovascular outcome trials to patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

Background

Recent treatment guidelines support the use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease based on the results of cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs). Applicability of these trials to everyday patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease is however unknown. The aim of this study is to assess the external applicability of SGLT2i CVOTs in daily clinical practice type 2 diabetes patients with established cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Trial in- and exclusion criteria from EMPA-REG OUTCOME, CANVAS, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and VERTIS-CV were applied to 1389 type 2 diabetes patients with cardiovascular disease in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART). To evaluate the difference in cardiovascular risk (MACE) and all-cause mortality between trial eligible and ineligible patients, age and sex-adjusted Cox-regression analyses were performed.

Results

After applying trial in- and exclusion criteria, 48% of UCC-SMART patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease would have been eligible for DECLARE-TIMI 58, 35% for CANVAS, 29% for EMPA-REG OUTCOME and 21% for VERTIS-CV. Without the eligibility criteria of HbA_1c, eligibility was 58–88%. For all trials the observed risk for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality was similar in eligible and ineligible patients after adjustment for age and gender.

Conclusion

A large proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in daily clinical practice would have been eligible for participation in the SGLT2i CVOTs. Trial eligible and ineligible patients have the same risk for MACE and all-cause mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01373-9.

Population diversity of cardiovascular outcome trials and real-world patients with diabetes in a Chinese tertiary hospital

BACKGROUND

Recent cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) changed the therapeutic strategy of guidelines for type 2 diabetes. We compared the characteristics of patients from real-world hospital settings with those of participants in recent pragmatic randomized trials.

METHODS

This electronic medical record (EMR)-based retrospective observational study investigated the data of patients with diabetes from inpatient and outpatient settings in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 1, 2011, to June 30, 2019. We identified patients meeting the inclusion criteria of a pragmatic randomized trial (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) based on EMRs and compared their baseline characteristics with those of the trial participants. The cutoff for the clinical significance of each characteristic was set as its minimal clinically important difference based on expert consultation.

RESULTS

We included 48,257 inpatients and 36,857 outpatients with diabetes and found that 8389 (17.4%) inpatients and 2646 (7.2%) outpatients met the inclusion criteria for the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial. Compared with the trial population, the real-world inpatients meeting the eligibility criteria of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME had similar age, blood pressure, and lipid profiles but comprised of fewer males, metformin users, anti-hypertensive drug users, and aspirin users, and had a lower body mass index. The group of outpatients meeting the eligibility criteria had fewer males, similar age, fewer metformin users, fewer insulin users, fewer anti-hypertensive drug users, and fewer aspirin users compared with the trial population.

CONCLUSIONS

The trial population in EMPA-REG OUTCOME represents only a small portion of patients with diabetes from the inpatient and outpatient departments of a Chinese tertiary medical center. Evidence localization in different clinical settings and validation are essential to enabling extrapolation of the results from CVOTs in patients with diabetes to Chinese clinical practice.

Comparative Effectiveness of SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, DPP-4 Inhibitors, and Sulfonylureas on Risk of Kidney Outcomes: Emulation of a Target Trial Using Health Care Databases

OBJECTIVE

To examine the comparative effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1), dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4), and sulfonylureas on risk of kidney outcomes among people with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

U.S. veterans initiated on SGLT2i (n = 18,544), GLP-1 (n = 23,711), DPP-4 (n = 39,399), or sulfonylureas (n = 134,904) were followed for up to 3 years to evaluate the risk of the composite outcome of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline >50%, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), or all-cause mortality. Risks were estimated using survival models adjusted for predefined covariates as well as covariates identified by a high-dimensional variable selection algorithm through application of generalized propensity scores.

RESULTS

Compared with those treated with sulfonylureas, treatment with SGLT2i, GLP-1, and DPP-4 was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio 0.68 [95% CI 0.63, 0.74], 0.72 [0.67, 0.77], and 0.90 [0.86, 0.95], respectively). While we did not observe a statistically significant difference in risk between the SGLT2i and GLP-1 arms (0.95 [0.87, 1.04]), both SGLT2i and GLP-1 had a lower risk of the composite outcome than DPP-4 (0.76 [0.70, 0.82] and 0.79 [0.74, 0.85], respectively). Analyses by eGFR category suggested that compared with the sulfonylurea arm, those in the SGLT2i and GLP-1 arms exhibited a lower risk of the composite outcome in all eGFR categories, including eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m². Compared with DPP-4, both SGLT2i and GLP-1 exhibited a reduced risk of the composite outcome in eGFR <90 to ≥60, <60 to ≥45, and <45 mL/min/1.73 m².

CONCLUSIONS

In type 2 diabetes, treatment with SGLT2i or GLP-1 compared with DPP-4 or sulfonylureas was associated with a lower risk of adverse kidney outcomes.

Generalizability of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors cardiovascular outcome trials to the type 2 diabetes population: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular outcome trials of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i CVOTs) found the agents to be associated with clinical benefits in terms of cardiovascular and renal outcomes. We performed a meta-analysis to assess and compare the overall prevalence of eligibility for the enrollment criteria of CANVAS, DECLARE-TIMI 58, EMPA-REG OUTCOME, and VERTIS-CV among unselected patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020172032). PubMed, CENTRAL, Scopus and Web of Science were researched in March 2020. Studies evaluating the prevalence of eligibility for each SGLT2i CVOT were selected. Endpoints were estimated using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Five studies, evaluating 1,703,519 patients with type 2 diabetes, were included. Overall, the prevalence of eligible patients according to the enrollment criteria of CANVAS, DECLARE-TIMI 58, EMPA-REG OUTCOME, and VERTIS-CV was 36.4%, 49.5%, 17.0% and 19.0%, respectively. In head-to-head comparisons, DECLARE-TIMI 58 was associated with the highest odds of eligibility (1.74 versus CANVAS, 5.15 versus EMPA-REG OUTCOME and 4.81 versus VERTIS-CV), followed by CANVAS and EMPA-REG OUTCOME/VERTIS-CV. A high heterogeneity was found for all the outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The present review showed that a considerable number of patients counseled in clinical practice could have been eligible for SGLT2i CVOTs. Particularly, dapagliflozin was shown to be the SGLT2i with the largest generalizability of findings from its CVOT according to the odds ratio of eligibility for the enrollment criteria among unselected patients with type 2 diabetes. Further country- or region-specific studies are needed to confirm the applicability of our results.