Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling

The role of the fibroblast in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the number one risk factor for developing esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a deadly cancer with limited treatment options that has been increasing in incidence in the US. In this report, we discuss current studies on the role of mesenchyme and cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) in BE and EAC, and we highlight translational prospects of targeting these cells.

RECENT FINDINGS

New insights through studies using single-cell RNA sequencing (sc-RNA seq) have revealed an important emerging role of the mesenchyme in developmental signaling and cancer initiation. BE and EAC share similar stromal gene expression, as functional classifications of nonepithelial cells in BE show a remarkable similarity to EAC CAFs. Several recent sc-RNA seq studies and novel organoid fibroblast co-culture systems have characterized the subgroups of fibroblasts in BE and EAC, and have shown that these cells can directly influence the epithelium to induce BE development and cancer progression. Targeting the CAFs in EAC with may be a promising novel therapeutic strategy.

SUMMARY

The fibroblasts in the surrounding mesenchyme may have a direct role in influencing altered epithelial plasticity during BE development and progression to EAC.

Cancer Risk in Barrett's Esophagus: A Clinical Review

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is rapidly increasing in incidence and is associated with a poor prognosis. Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a known precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma. This review aims to explore Barrett's esophagus, esophageal adenocarcinoma, and the progression from the former to the latter. An overview of the definition, diagnosis, epidemiology, and risk factors for both entities are presented, with special attention being given to the areas of debate in the literature. The progression from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma is reviewed and the relevant molecular pathways are discussed. The definition of Barrett's esophagus remains debated and without international consensus. This, alongside other factors, has made establishing the true prevalence of Barrett's esophagus challenging. The degree of dysplasia can be a histological challenge, but is necessary to guide clinical management. The progression of BE to EAC is likely driven by inflammatory pathways, pepsin exposure, upregulation of growth factor pathways, and mitochondrial changes. Surveillance is maintained through serial endoscopic evaluation, with shorter intervals recommended for high-risk features.

A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data

Background

Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer.

Methods

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections.

Results

Our forecasting study suggests that the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of esophageal adenocarcinoma for the age group 40-65 years will increase from 2.12 in 2021 to 3.86 in 2040, which corresponds to an 82% increase over the course of 19 years (3.2% per year, 95% CI: -2.3% to 9.1%). In addition, we found a considerable decrease in the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the current age groups 40-65 years (-2.7% per year) and >65 years (-4.6% per year).

Conclusions

Preventive efforts of esophageal adenocarcinoma should primarily target males of age up to 65 years and females of current age 40 to 65 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2040.

Endoscopic Screening Program for Control of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in Varied Populations: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines suggest endoscopic screening for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) among individuals with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and additional risk factors. We aimed to determine at what age to perform screening and whether sex and race should influence the decision.

METHODS

We conducted comparative cost-effectiveness analyses using 3 independent simulation models. For each combination of sex and race (White/Black, 100,000 individuals each), we considered 41 screening strategies, including one-time or repeated screening. The optimal strategy was that with the highest effectiveness and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <$100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS

Among White men, 536 EAC deaths were projected without screening, and screening individuals with GERD twice at ages 45 and 60 years was optimal. Screening the entire White male population once at age 55 years was optimal in 26% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis runs. Black men had fewer EAC deaths without screening (n = 84), and screening those with GERD once at age 55 years was optimal. Although White women had slightly more EAC deaths (n = 103) than Black men, the optimal strategy was no screening, although screening those with GERD once at age 55 years was optimal in 29% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis runs. Black women had a very low burden of EAC deaths (n = 29), and no screening was optimal, as benefits were very small and some strategies caused net harm.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal strategy for screening differs by race and sex. White men with GERD symptoms can potentially be screened more intensely than is recommended currently. Screening women is not cost-effective and may cause net harm for Black women.

Utility and Cost-Effectiveness of a Nonendoscopic Approach to Barrett's Esophagus Surveillance After Endoscopic Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A non-endoscopic approach to Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) would offer a less invasive method for monitoring. We assessed the test characteristics and cost-effectiveness of the Cytosponge (Medtronic, Minneapolis, MN) in post-RFA patients.

METHODS

We performed a multicenter study of dysplastic BE patients after at least one round of RFA. A positive Cytosponge before endoscopy was defined as intestinal metaplasia (IM) on cytological assessment and/or TFF3 immunohistochemistry. Sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated. Multivariable regression was used to estimate the odds of a positive Cytosponge in BE. A microsimulation cost-effectiveness model was performed to assess outcomes of various surveillance strategies: endoscopy-only, Cytosponge-only, and alternating endoscopy/Cytosponge.

RESULTS

Of 234 patients, Cytosponge adequately sampled the distal esophagus in 175 (75%). Of the 142 with both endoscopic and histologic data, 19 (13%) had residual/recurrent BE. For detecting any residual Barrett's, Cytosponge had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 85%, accuracy of 84%, and ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0.74. The adjusted odds of a positive Cytosponge in BE were 17.1 (95% CI, 5.2-55.9). Cytosponge-only surveillance dominated all the surveillance strategies, being both less costly and more effective. Cytosponge-only surveillance required <1/4^th the endoscopies, resulting in only 0.69 additional EAC cases/1000 patients, and no increase in EAC deaths when compared to currently-practiced endoscopy-only surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

A positive Cytosponge test was strongly associated with residual BE after ablation. While the assay needs further refinement in this context, it could serve as a cost-effective surveillance examination.

Trends and projections in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands: An age-period-cohort analysis from 1989 to 2041

In Western populations, the incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has been declining, whereas the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) has been increasing. Our study examines temporal trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2016, in addition to predicting future trends through 2041. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands were collected to obtain incidence trends of OSCC and OAC for the period 1989 to 2016. Age‐period‐cohort (APC) modelling was used to estimate the contribution of age, calendar period and birth cohort on the observed incidence trends. To predict the future numbers of new cases of both OSCC and OAC from 2017 to 2041, log‐linear APC models were fitted to the trends of 1989 to 2016. The age‐standardised incidence rates of OSCC have decreased slightly for men and increased slightly for women. In contrast, a marked increase in the incidence of OAC was observed, ranging from 2.8 per 100 000 persons in 1989 to 10.1 in 2016. This increase in OAC incidence was more prominent in men, and it will result in an increased risk of OAC for successive generations. Future projections indicate that the incidence of OAC will further increase to 13.1 per 100 000 persons in 2037 to 2041, meaning that there will be 13 259 cases of OAC in 2037 to 2041, as compared to 9386 diagnoses in 2017 to 2021. The changing epidemiologic trends in oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands should be reflected in the development of prevention, early detection and treatment strategies.

What's new?

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is on the rise in Western countries. Better understanding of this trend could facilitate critical improvements in OAC prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. Here, the authors investigated trends in OAC incidence from 1989 to 2016 for successive birth cohorts in the Netherlands. OAC incidence was found to have increased significantly since 1989, with risk rising most noticeably in men. Analyses through 2037‐2041 predict continued growth in OAC cases. The findings highlight the importance of promoting measures to prevent esophageal cancer, particularly those aimed at controlling modifiable risk factors, such as obesity and smoking.

Challenges in Determining the Role of Microbiome Evolution in Barrett's Esophagus and Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) claims the lives of half of patients within the first year of diagnosis, and its incidence has rapidly increased since the 1970s despite extensive research into etiological factors. The changes in the microbiome within the distal esophagus in modern populations may help explain the growth in cases that other common EAC risk factors together cannot fully explain. The precursor to EAC is Barrett's esophagus (BE), a metaplasia adapted to a reflux-mediated microenvironment that can be challenging to diagnose in patients who do not undergo endoscopic screening. Non-invasive procedures to detect microbial communities in saliva, oral swabs and brushings from the distal esophagus allow us to characterize taxonomic differences in bacterial population abundances within patients with BE versus controls, and may provide an alternative means of BE detection. Unique microbial communities have been identified across healthy esophagus, BE, and various stages of progression to EAC, but studies determining dynamic changes in these communities, including migration from proximal stomach and oral cavity niches, and their potential causal role in cancer formation are lacking. Helicobacter pylori is negatively associated with EAC, and the absence of this species has been implicated in the evolution of chromosomal instability, a main driver of EAC, but joint analyses of microbiome and host genomes are needed. Acknowledging technical challenges, future studies on the prediction of microbial dynamics and evolution within BE and the progression to EAC will require larger esophageal microbiome datasets, improved bioinformatics pipelines, and specialized mathematical models for analysis.

Obesity and its effects on the esophageal mucosal barrier

Obesity is associated with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and its complications including reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Traditionally, these associations have been attributed to the mechanical effect of abdominal fat in increasing intra-abdominal pressure, thereby promoting gastroesophageal reflux and causing disruption of antireflux mechanisms at the esophagogastric junction. However, recent studies suggest that visceral adipose tissue (VAT) produces numerous cytokines that can cause esophageal inflammation and impair esophageal mucosal barrier integrity through reflux-independent mechanisms that render the esophageal mucosa especially susceptible to GERD-induced injury. In this report, we review mechanisms of esophageal mucosal defense, the genesis and remodeling of visceral adipose tissue during obesity, and the potential role of substances produced by VAT, especially the VAT that encircles the esophagogastric junction, in the impairment of esophageal mucosal barrier integrity that leads to the development of GERD complications.

The Optimal Age to Stop Endoscopic Surveillance of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus Based on Sex and Comorbidity: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Current guidelines recommend surveillance for patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) but do not include a recommended age for discontinuing surveillance. This study aimed to determine the optimal age for last surveillance of NDBE patients stratified by sex and level of comorbidity.

METHODS

We used 3 independently developed models to simulate patients diagnosed with NDBE, varying in age, sex, and comorbidity level (no, mild, moderate, and severe). All patients had received regular surveillance until their current age. We calculated incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from 1 additional endoscopic surveillance at the current age versus not performing surveillance at that age. We determined the optimal age to end surveillance as the age at which incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 1 more surveillance was just less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY.

RESULTS

The benefit of having 1 more surveillance endoscopy strongly depended on age, sex, and comorbidity. For men with NDBE and severe comorbidity, 1 additional surveillance at age 80 years provided 4 more QALYs per 1000 patients with BE at an additional cost of $1.2 million, whereas for women with severe comorbidity the benefit at that age was 7 QALYs at a cost of $1.3 million. For men with no, mild, moderate, and severe comorbidity, the optimal ages of last surveillance were 81, 80, 77, and 73 years, respectively. For women, these ages were younger: 75, 73, 73, and 69 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our comparative modeling analysis illustrates the importance of considering comorbidity status and sex when deciding on the age to discontinue surveillance in patients with NDBE.

Therapeutic Synergy in Esophageal Cancer and Mesothelioma Is Predicted by Dynamic BH3 Profiling

Approximately 20,000 patients per year are diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM); fewer than 20% survive 5 years. Effective therapeutic strategies are limited although patients receive a combination of chemotherapeutics. These tumors harbor thousands of mutations that contribute to tumor development. Downstream of oncogenic driving mutations, altered tumor mitochondria promote resistance to apoptosis. Dynamic Bcl-2 homology-3 profiling (DBP) is a functional assay of live cells that identifies the mitochondrial proteins responsible for resistance to apoptosis. We hypothesized that DBP will predict which protein to target to overcome resistance thereby enhancing combinatorial therapy.DBP predicted that targeting either Mcl-1 or Bcl-xL increases the efficacy of the chemotherapeutic agent, cisplatin, whereas targeting Bcl-2 does not. We performed these assays by treating EAC and MPM cells with a combination of Bcl-2 homology-3 (BH3) mimetics and cisplatin. Following treatments, we performed efficacy assessments including apoptosis assays, IC50 calculations, and generation of a combinatorial index. DBP confirmed that targeting mitochondria with BH3 mimetics alters the threshold of apoptosis. These apoptotic effects were abolished when the mitochondrial pathway was disrupted. We validated our findings by developing knockdown models of antiapoptotic proteins Mcl-1, Bcl-xL, and the mitochondrial effector proteins Bax/Bak. Knockdown of Mcl-1 or Bcl-xL recapitulated the results of BH3 mimetics. In addition, we report an approach for BH3 profiling directly from patient tumor samples. We demonstrate that the DBP assay on living tumor cells measures the dynamic changes of resistance mechanisms, assesses response to combinatorial therapy, and provides results in a clinically feasible time frame.

Comparative Cost Effectiveness of Reflux-Based and Reflux-Independent Strategies for Barrett's Esophagus Screening

INTRODUCTION

Minimally invasive tests for Barrett's esophagus (BE) detection have raised the prospect of broader nonreflux-based testing. Cost-effectiveness studies have largely studied men aged 50 years with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms. We evaluated the comparative cost effectiveness of BE screening tests in GERD-based and GERD-independent testing scenarios.

METHODS

Markov modeling was performed in 3 scenarios in 50 years old individuals: (i) White men with chronic GERD (GERD-based); (ii) GERD-independent (all races, men and women), BE prevalence 1.6%; and (iii) GERD-independent, BE prevalence 5%. The simulation compared multiple screening strategies with no screening: sedated endoscopy (sEGD), transnasal endoscopy, swallowable esophageal cell collection devices with biomarkers, and exhaled volatile organic compounds. A hypothetical cohort of 500,000 individuals followed for 40 years using a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was simulated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing each strategy with no screening and comparing screening strategies with each other were calculated.

RESULTS

In both GERD-independent scenarios, most non-sEGD BE screening tests were cost effective. Swallowable esophageal cell collection devices with biomarkers were cost effective (<$35,000/QALY) and were the optimal screening tests in all scenarios. Exhaled volatile organic compounds had the highest ICERs in all scenarios. ICERs were low (<$25,000/QALY) for all tests in the GERD-based scenario, and all non-sEGD tests dominated no screening. ICERs were sensitive to BE prevalence and test costs.

DISCUSSION

Minimally invasive nonendoscopic tests may make GERD-independent BE screening cost effective. Participation rates for these strategies need to be studied.

Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling

Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.

Computational modelling suggests that Barrett's oesophagus may be the precursor of all oesophageal adenocarcinomas

OBJECTIVE

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is a known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) but current clinical data have not been consolidated to address whether BE is the origin of all incident OAC, which would reinforce evidence for BE screening efforts. We aimed to answer whether all expected prevalent BE, diagnosed and undiagnosed, could account for all incident OACs in the US cancer registry data.

DESIGN

We used a multiscale computational model of OAC that includes the evolutionary process from normal oesophagus through BE in individuals from the US population. The model was previously calibrated to fit Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results cancer incidence curves. Here, we also utilised age-specific and sex-specific US census data for numbers at-risk. The primary outcome for model validation was the expected number of OAC cases for a given calendar year. Secondary outcomes included the comparisons of resulting model-predicted prevalence of BE and BE-to-OAC progression to the observed prevalence and progression rates.

RESULTS

The model estimated the total number of OAC cases from BE in 2010 was 9970 (95% CI: 9140 to 11 980), which recapitulates nearly all OAC cases from population data. The model simultaneously predicted 8%-9% BE prevalence in high-risk males age 45-55, and 0.1%-0.2% non-dysplastic BE-to-OAC annual progression in males, consistent with clinical studies.

CONCLUSION

There are likely few additional OAC cases arising in the US population outside those expected from individuals with BE. Effective screening of high-risk patients could capture the majority of population destined for OAC progression and potentially decrease mortality through early detection and curative removal of small (pre)cancers during surveillance.

Deoxycholic Acid Upregulates the Reprogramming Factors KFL4 and OCT4 Through the IL-6/STAT3 Pathway in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Cells

Cancer stem cells, a special subgroup of cancer cells, have self-renewal capabilities and multidirectional potential, which may be reprogrammed from the dedifferentiation of cancer cells, contributing to the failure of clinical treatments. Esophageal adenocarcinoma grows in an inflammatory environment stimulated by deoxycholic acid, an important component of gastroesophageal reflux content, contributing to the transformation of esophageal squamous epithelium to the precancerous lesions of esophageal adenocarcinoma, that is, Barrett esophagus. In the present study, deoxycholic acid was used to investigate whether it could induce the expression of reprogramming factors Krüppel-like factor, OCT4, and Nanog; the transformation to cancer stem cells in esophageal adenocarcinoma; and the involvement of the interleukin-6/signal transduction and activation of transcription 3 inflammatory signaling pathway. OE33 cells were treated with deoxycholic acid (250 μM) for 0 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, and 12 hours before evaluating the messenger RNA expression of Krüppel-like factor, OCT4, Nanog, interleukin-6, and Bcl-xL by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Interleukin-6 protein was detected by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, while signal transduction and activation of transcription 3, phosphorylated signal transduction and activation of transcription 3, Krüppel-like factor, and OCT4 were detected by Western blot. Signal transduction and activation of transcription 3 small interfering RNA and human recombinant interleukin-6 were used to treat OE33 cells and to detect their effects on Krüppel-like factor, OCT4, Nanog, CD44, hypoxia-inducible factor 1-α, and Bcl-xL expression. Results showed that deoxycholic acid promotes the expression of reprogramming factors Krüppel-like factor and OCT4, which are regulated by the interleukin-6/signal transduction and activation of transcription 3 signaling pathway. Deoxycholic acid has a malignancy-inducing effect on the transformation of esophageal adenocarcinoma stem cells, improving the antiapoptotic ability of tumors, and increasing the malignancy of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Deactivating the regulatory signaling pathway of interleukin-6/signal transduction and activation of transcription 3 and neutralizing deoxycholic acid may be novel targets for improving the clinical efficacy of esophageal adenocarcinoma therapy.

Study on the Selection of the Targets of Esophageal Carcinoma and Interventions of Ginsenosides Based on Network Pharmacology and Bioinformatics

Background

Esophageal carcinoma (ESCA) is not only a threat to people's health but also the sixth most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide.

Methods

In this study, the key targets of ESCA are screened through GeneCards and DisGeNET databases combined with the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (GSE1420 and GSE20347). Then, data associated with ESCA samples are downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database for integrated analysis. Moreover, the effect of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) expression on the survival of patients with ESCA is evaluated by Kaplan–Meier and Cox analyses. The virtual screening is carried out using a Suflex-Dock molecular docking module. The chemical components, which have been well bound to EpCAM, are screened out based on a total score >5 as a threshold. Ginsenosides and EpCAM are analyzed by LigPlot + v.2.2 software to identify the binding sites.

Results

Four ESCA targets are obtained from GeneCards, DisGeNET, and GEO databases. In this study, it is found that high EpCAM expression is associated with histologic grade, stage, patient age, N classification, T classification, and radiation therapy. The Kaplan–Meier curves for overall survival also show that the higher expression of EpCAM is associated with worse outcomes in patients with ESCA. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses indicate that EpCAM mRNA expression might be a useful biomarker for ESCA(P < 0.05). Molecular docking technology suggests that ginsenoside Rg3 and ginsenoside Rh2 can easily establish good docking modes and have a high affinity with EpCAM. The 6′-hydroxyl and 6″-hydroxyl on the 3-glycosyl of ginsenoside Rg3 are prone to form hydrogen bonds (Lys151 and Lys221) with the active sites of EpCAM ligand binding domain. The hydroxyl groups on the 12 sites of the ginsenoside Rh2 glycoside framework are found to have hydrogen bonding with Leu240. The formation of hydrogen bonds plays an important role in binding of ginsenoside Rg3 and ginsenoside Rh2 to EpCAM, as well as the stability of EpCAM conformation.

Conclusion

EpCAM may be determined as a potential biomarker for early diagnosis and prognosis of ESCA. Ginsenoside Rg3 and ginsenoside Rh2 have potential antiesophageal cancer activities. This experiment provides a reference for the study of the chemical compositions of ginsenosides in the treatment of esophageal cancer.

Endoscopy for gastroesophageal reflux disease and survival in esophageal adenocarcinoma

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a risk factor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and the most common indication for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Yet, whether GERD or endoscopy practice influence survival in EAC is largely unknown and was assessed in our study.This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish residents diagnosed with EAC in 1997-2013 with follow-up to 2018. Exposures were history of GERD and endoscopies prior to EAC. The main outcome was EAC-specific 5-year mortality. Multivariable Cox regression provided hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for potential confounders. Among 6,600 EAC patients (79.3% males, median age 70 years) followed for 9,138 person-years, 440 (6.7%) had GERD and 592 (9.0%) had ≥1 endoscopy before EAC diagnosis. GERD was associated with a decreased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.64-0.80), which was only slightly attenuated by adjustment for prior endoscopies (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.90), and further adjustments also for tumor stage and surgical resection (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). Compared to EAC patients without prior endoscopy, mortality was unchanged in GERD patients having undergone 1 or 2 endoscopies before EAC diagnosis (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.80-1.31, for 1 endoscopy; HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.63-1.30, for 2 endoscopies), while the mortality was decreased in patients with ≥3 endoscopies (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36-0.85). Our study indicates that GERD may be associated with a better prognosis in the event of EAC; however, the use of endoscopy screening has a limited impact on survival unless performed very frequently.

Bile acid-induced "Minority MOMP" promotes esophageal carcinogenesis while maintaining apoptotic resistance via Mcl-1

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is associated with reflux and is implicated the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Apoptosis induces cell death through mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP), which is considered an irreversible step in apoptosis. Activation of MOMP to levels that fail to reach the apoptotic threshold may paradoxically promote cancer-a phenomenon called "Minority MOMP." We asked whether reflux-induced esophageal carcinogenesis occurred via minority MOMP and whether compensatory resistance mechanisms prevented cell death during this process. We exposed preneoplastic, hTERT-immortalized Barrett's cell, CP-C and CP-A, to the oncogenic bile acid, deoxycholic acid (DCA), for 1 year. Induction of minority MOMP was tested via comet assay, CyQuant, annexin V, JC-1, cytochrome C subcellular localization, caspase 3 activation, and immunoblots. We used bcl-2 homology domain-3 (BH3) profiling to test the mitochondrial apoptotic threshold. One-year exposure of Barrett's cells to DCA induced a malignant phenotype noted by clone and tumor formation. DCA promoted minority MOMP noted by minimal release of cytochrome C and limited caspase 3 activation, which resulted in DNA damage without apoptosis. Upregulation of the antiapoptotic protein, Mcl-1, ROS generation, and NF-κB activation occurred in conjunction with minority MOMP. Inhibition of ROS blocked minority MOMP and Mcl-1 upregulation. Knockdown of Mcl-1 shifted minority MOMP to complete MOMP as noted by dynamic BH3 profiling and increased apoptosis. Minority MOMP contributes to DCA induced carcinogenesis in preneoplastic BE. Mcl-1 provided a balance within the mitochondria that induced resistance complete MOMP and cell death. Targeting Mcl-1 may be a therapeutic strategy in EAC.

Esophageal cancer treatment costs by phase of care and treatment modality, 2000-2013

BACKGROUND

Detailed cost estimates are not widely available for esophageal cancer. Our study estimates phase-specific costs for esophageal cancer by age, year, histology, stage, and treatment for older patients in the United States and compares these costs within stage and treatment modalities.

METHODS

We identified 8061 esophageal cancer patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database for years 1998-2013. Total, cancer-attributable, and patient-liability costs were calculated based on separate phases of care-staging (or surgery), initial, continuing, and terminal. We estimated costs by treatment modality within stage and phase for esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma separately. We fit linear regression models using log transformation to determine cost by age and calendar year. All costs are reported in 2018 US dollars.

RESULTS

Overall, mean (95% CI) monthly total cost estimates were high during the staging ($8953 [$8385-$9485]) and initial phases ($7731 [$7492-$7970]), decreased over the continuing phase ($2984 [$2814-$3154]), and increased substantially during the 6-month terminal phase ($18 150 [$17 211-$19 089]). This pattern of high staging and initial phase costs, decreasing continuing phase costs, and increasing terminal phase costs was seen in all stages. The highest staging costs were in stages III ($9249, $8025-$10 474) and II ($9171, $7642-$10 699). The highest initial phase cost was in stage IV, $9263 ($8758-49 768), the lowest continuing phase cost was in stage I, $2338 ($2160-$2517), and the highest terminal phase costs were in stages II ($20 533, $17 772-$23 293) and III ($20 599, $18 268-$22 929). The linear regression models showed that cancer-attributable costs remained stable over the study period and were unaffected by age for most histology, stage, and treatment modality subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates demonstrate that esophageal cancer costs can vary widely by histology, stage, and treatment. These cost estimates can be used to guide future resource allocation for esophageal cancer care and research.

APE1 Upregulates MMP-14 via Redox-Sensitive ARF6-Mediated Recycling to Promote Cell Invasion of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is an aggressive malignancy with poor clinical outcome. The incidence of EAC has been rising rapidly in the past three decades. Here, we showed that apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease (APE1) is overexpressed in EAC cell lines, and patients' samples of dysplasia and EAC. Downregulation of APE1 or inhibition of its redox function significantly repressed invasion. Overexpression of a redox-defective mutant, C65A, abrogated the proinvasive phenotype of APE1. APE1 regulated invasion via upregulation of matrix metalloproteinase 14 (MMP-14), which subsequently activated MMP-2, leading to degradation of the extracellular matrix in a redox-dependent manner. Downregulation of APE1 or inhibition of its redox function decreased the rate of endocytosis and recycling of MMP-14 protein. APE1 interacted with ARF6, a key regulator of MMP-14 recycling, which maintained ARF6 activity in an APE1-redox-dependent manner, promoting its ability to regulate MMP-14 recycling to the cell surface. In summary, these findings identify a novel redox-sensitive APE1-ARF6-MMP-14 signaling axis that mediates cellular invasion in esophageal carcinogenesis. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates the association between oxidative stress and the development and metastatic behavior of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Economic value of narrow-band imaging versus white light endoscopy for the diagnosis and surveillance of Barrett's esophagus: Cost-consequence model

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is an abnormality arising from gastroesophageal reflux disease that can progressively evolve into a sequence of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma. Progression of Barrett’s esophagus into dysplasia is monitored with endoscopic surveillance. The current surveillance standard requests random biopsies plus targeted biopsies of suspicious lesions under white-light endoscopy, known as the Seattle protocol. Recently, published evidence has shown that narrow-band imaging (NBI) can guide targeted biopsies to identify dysplasia and reduce the need for random biopsies. We aimed to assess the health economic implications of adopting NBI-guided targeted biopsy vs. the Seattle protocol from a National Health Service England perspective. A decision tree model was developed to undertake a cost-consequence analysis. The model estimated total costs (i.e. staff and overheads; histopathology; adverse events; capital equipment) and clinical implications of monitoring a cohort of patients with known/suspected BE, on an annual basis. In the simulation, BE patients (N = 161,657 at Year 1; estimated annual increase: +20%) entered the model every year and underwent esophageal endoscopy. After 7 years, the adoption of NBI with targeted biopsies resulted in cost reduction of £458.0 mln vs. HD-WLE with random biopsies (overall costs: £1,966.2 mln and £2,424.2 mln, respectively). The incremental investment on capital equipment to upgrade hospitals with NBI (+£68.3 mln) was offset by savings due to the reduction of histological examinations (-£505.2 mln). Reduction of biopsies also determined savings for avoided adverse events (-£21.1 mln). In the base-case analysis, the two techniques had the same accuracy (number of correctly identified cases: 1.934 mln), but NBI was safer than HD-WLE. Budget impact analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses confirmed the findings of the cost-consequence analysis. In conclusion, NBI-guided targeted biopsies was a cost-saving strategy for NHS England, compared to current practice for detection of dysplasia in patients with BE, whilst maintaining at least comparable health outcomes for patients.

Increasing prevalence of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma on index endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus over the past 2 decades: data from a multicenter U.S. consortium

INTRODUCTION

Data on time trends of dysplasia and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in Barrett's esophagus (BE) during the index endoscopy (ie, prevalent cases) are limited. Our aim was to determine the prevalence patterns of BE-associated dysplasia on index endoscopy over the past 25 years.

METHODS

The Barrett's Esophagus Study is a multicenter outcome project of a large cohort of patients with BE. Proportions of patients with index endoscopy findings of no dysplasia (NDBE), low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), and EAC were extracted per year of index endoscopy, and 5-yearly patient cohorts were tabulated over years 1990 to 2010+ (2010-current). Prevalent dysplasia and endoscopic findings were trended over the past 25 years using percentage dysplasia (LGD, HGD, EAC, and HGD/EAC) to assess changes in detection of BE-associated dysplasia over the last 25 years. Statistical analysis was done using SAS version 9.4 software (SAS, Cary, NC).

RESULTS

A total of 3643 patients were included in the analysis with index endoscopy showing NDBE in 2513 (70.1%), LGD in 412 (11.5%), HGD in 193 (5.4%), and EAC in 181 (5.1%). Over time, there was an increase in the mean age of patients with BE (51.7 ± 29 years vs 62.6 ± 11.3 years) and the proportion of males (84% vs 92.6%) diagnosed with BE but a decrease in the mean BE length (4.4±4.3 cm vs 2.9±3.0 cm) as time progressed (1990-1994 to 2010-2016 time periods). The presence of LGD on index endoscopy remained stable over 1990 to 2016. However, a significant increase (148% in HGD and 112% in EAC) in the diagnosis of HGD, EAC, and HGD/EAC was noted on index endoscopy over the last 25 years (P < .001). There was also a significant increase in the detection of visible lesions on index endoscopy (1990-1994, 5.1%; to 2005-2009, 6.3%; and 2010+, 16.3%) during the same period.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the prevalence of HGD and EAC has significantly increased over the past 25 years despite a decrease in BE length during the same period. This increase parallels an increase in the detection of visible lesions, suggesting that a careful examination at the index examination is crucial.

Trends and projections in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus in England from 1971 to 2037

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and trends of oesophageal adenocarcinomas (OACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) in England from 1971 to 2037.

METHODS

Data on 220,026 oesophageal cancers diagnosed in England between 1971 and 2013 were extracted. Multiple imputation was used to predict morphology data were missing. Incidence rates were modelled and extrapolated to 2037 using age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

The OAC age-standardised incidence rate (ASRs) increase was greatest from 1972 to 1992 (from 4.8 to 12.3 for men and 1.1 to 3 per 100,000 for women) and slowed from 1992 to 2012 (with an increase to 17 for men and 3.8 per 100,000 for women). OSCCs rates decreased from 7.5 to 4.9 from 1972 to 2012 for men. For women, ASRs increased from 5.5 to 5.9 between 1972 and 1992 and then decreased to 4.7 per 100,000 until 2012. Rates until 2032 are predicted to stay stable for OACs and further decrease for OSCCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Imputing missing morphology allowed accurate and up-to-date estimates of trends and projections. We observed a slowing down of the increase in OAC ASRs and an overall decrease in OSCC ASRs.

Genetic variants of FOXP1 and FOXF1 are associated with the susceptibility of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in Chinese population

This study aimed to investigate whether the genetic variants of CRTC1, BARX1, FOXP1 and FOXF1 are associated with the development of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OA) in Chinese population. A total of 744 OA patients and 1138 controls were included in this study. Here we genotyped four SNPs, rs10419226 of CRTC1, rs11789015 of BARX1, rs2687201 of FOXP1 and rs3111601 of FOXF1. The chi-square test was used to compare the genotype and allele frequencies between the patients and controls. The student's t-test was used to compare FOXP1 expression in the tumour and the adjacent normal tissues. The relationship between genotypes of rs2687201 and FOXP1 expression was investigated by one-way analysis of variance test. Patients were found to have significantly higher frequency of allele A of rs2687201 and allele C of rs3111601 when compared with the controls (49.2 vs 43.4%, P = 0.0008 for rs2687201; 29.1 vs 24.0%, P = 0.0003 for rs3111601). There was a significantly higher expression level of FOXP1 in the tumour than in the adjacent normal tissue (0.0052 ± 0.0021 vs 0.0027 ± 0.0018, P < 0.001). Patients with genotype AA were found to have remarkably higher FOXP1 expression in the tumour than those with genotype CC (P = 0.01). To conclude, the varients of FOXP1 and FOXF1 genes are functionally associated with OA in Chinese population.With the identification of more susceptible loci, the combined effect of these markers may be helpful for the surveillance of OA.

An evolutionary perspective on field cancerization

Tumorigenesis begins long before the growth of a clinically detectable lesion and, indeed, even before any of the usual morphological correlates of pre-malignancy are recognizable. Field cancerization, which is the replacement of the normal cell population by a cancer-primed cell population that may show no morphological change, is now recognized to underlie the development of many types of cancer, including the common carcinomas of the lung, colon, skin, prostate and bladder. Field cancerization is the consequence of the evolution of somatic cells in the body that results in cells that carry some but not all phenotypes required for malignancy. Here, we review the evidence of field cancerization across organs and examine the biological mechanisms that drive the evolutionary process that results in field creation. We discuss the clinical implications, principally, how measurements of the cancerized field could improve cancer risk prediction in patients with pre-malignant disease.

The Epidemiology of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased in many Western countries and is higher in men than women. Some risk factors for EAC have been identified-mainly gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's esophagus, obesity, and tobacco smoking. It is not clear whether interventions to address these factors can reduce risk of EAC, although some evidence exists for smoking cessation. Although consumption of alcohol is not associated with EAC risk, other exposures, such as physical activity, nutrition, and medication use, require further study. Genetic variants have been associated with risk for EAC, but their overall contribution is low. Studies are needed to investigate associations between risk factors and the molecular subtypes of EAC. The prognosis for patients with EAC has slightly improved, but remains poor-screening and surveillance trials of high-risk individuals are needed.

Identification of a key role of widespread epigenetic drift in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Background

Recent studies have identified age-related changes in DNA methylation patterns in normal and cancer tissues in a process that is called epigenetic drift. However, the evolving patterns, functional consequences, and dynamics of epigenetic drift during carcinogenesis remain largely unexplored. Here we analyze the evolution of epigenetic drift patterns during progression from normal squamous esophagus tissue to Barrett’s esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) using 173 tissue samples from 100 (nonfamilial) BE patients, along with publically available datasets including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

Results

Our analysis reveals extensive methylomic drift between normal squamous esophagus and BE tissues in nonprogressed BE patients, with differential drift affecting 4024 (24%) of 16,984 normally hypomethylated cytosine-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs) occurring in CpG islands. The majority (63%) of islands that include drift CpGs are associated with gene promoter regions. Island CpGs that drift have stronger pairwise correlations than static islands, reflecting collective drift consistent with processive DNA methylation maintenance. Individual BE tissues are extremely heterogeneous in their distribution of methylomic drift and encompass unimodal low-drift to bimodal high-drift patterns, reflective of differences in BE tissue age. Further analysis of longitudinally collected biopsy samples from 20 BE patients confirm the time-dependent evolution of these drift patterns. Drift patterns in EAC are similar to those in BE, but frequently exhibit enhanced bimodality and advanced mode drift. To better understand the observed drift patterns, we developed a multicellular stochastic model at the CpG island level. Importantly, we find that nonlinear feedback in the model between mean island methylation and CpG methylation rates is able to explain the widely heterogeneous collective drift patterns. Using matched gene expression and DNA methylation data in EAC from TCGA and other publically available data, we also find that advanced methylomic drift is correlated with significant transcriptional repression of ~ 200 genes in important regulatory and developmental pathways, including several checkpoint and tumor suppressor-like genes.

Conclusions

Taken together, our findings suggest that epigenetic drift evolution acts to significantly reduce the expression of developmental genes that may alter tissue characteristics and improve functional adaptation during BE to EAC progression.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13148-017-0409-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease for Barrett's Esophagus With a Minimally Invasive Cell Sampling Device

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is important to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients with BE usually are identified by endoscopy, which is expensive. The Cytosponge, which collects tissue from the esophagus noninvasively, could be a cost-effective tool for screening individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) who are at increased risk for BE. We developed a model to analyze the cost effectiveness of using the Cytosponge in first-line screening of patients with GERD for BE with endoscopic confirmation, compared with endoscopy screening only.

METHODS

We incorporated data from a large clinical trial of Cytosponge performance into 2 validated microsimulation models of EAC progression (the esophageal adenocarcinoma model from Massachusetts General Hospital and the microsimulation screening analysis model from Erasmus University Medical Center). The models were calibrated for US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data on EAC incidence and mortality. In each model, we simulated the effect of a 1-time screen for BE in male patients with GERD, 60 years of age, using endoscopy alone or Cytosponge collection of tissue, and analysis for the level of trefoil factor 3 with endoscopic confirmation of positive results. For each strategy we recorded the number of cases of EAC that developed, the number of EAC cases detected with screening by Cytosponge only or by subsequent targeted surveillance, and the number of endoscopies needed. In addition, we recorded the cumulative costs (including indirect costs) incurred and quality-adjusted years of life lived within each strategy, discounted at a rate of 3% per year, and computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among the 3 strategies.

RESULTS

According to the models, screening patients with GERD by Cytosponge with follow-up confirmation of positive results by endoscopy would reduce the cost of screening by 27% to 29% compared with screening by endoscopy, but led to 1.8 to 5.5 (per 1000 patients) fewer quality-adjusted life years. The ICERs for Cytosponge screening compared with no screening ranged from $26,358 to $33,307. For screening patients by endoscopy compared with Cytosponge the ICERs ranged from $107,583 to $330,361. These results were sensitive to Cytosponge cost within a plausible range of values.

CONCLUSIONS

In a comparative modeling analysis of screening strategies for BE in patients with GERD, we found Cytosponge screening with endoscopic confirmation to be a cost-effective strategy. The greatest benefit was achieved by endoscopic screening, but with an unfavorable cost margin.

Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030

OBJECTIVES

Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data.

METHODS

Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined.

RESULTS

The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.

The Impact of a Prior Diagnosis of Barrett's Esophagus on Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Survival

OBJECTIVES

Endoscopic surveillance of patients with Barrett's Esophagus (BE) is recommended to detect esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its dysplasia precursors, but survival benefits are unclear. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked Medicare data, we sought to determine the impact of a prior BE diagnosis on survival in patients with EAC.

METHODS

Our analysis focused on patients over age 65 with primary EAC diagnosed in a SEER region from 2000-2011 and enrolled in Medicare. We identified patients with preexisting BE prior to EAC diagnosis and compared this group to EAC patients without a prior BE diagnosis. A Cox Proportional Hazards model compared survival and included variables such as age, sex, cancer stage, treatment, and medical comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 4,978 SEER-Medicare patients identified with EAC, 577 (12%) had preexisting BE; 4,401 (88%) did not. BE patients had overall lower stage (28.5% stage I vs. 12.8% stage IV) than those without preexisting BE (16.4% stage I vs. 30.6% stage IV). Overall survival was better among patients in the BE group (hazard ratio (HR), 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.61); this benefit persisted in the adjusted model (HR, 0.72; 95%, 0.65-0.80). After adjusting for lead-time bias, the HRs attenuated to the null, with an unadjusted HR of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86-1.05, P=0.39) and adjusted HR of 0.99 (CI: 0.89-1.10, P=0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival outcomes in patients with a BE diagnosis prior to EAC were statistically better in both the unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. However, this benefit appears to be predominantly lead-time and length-time bias.

Plant Lectins as Medical Tools against Digestive System Cancers

Digestive system cancers-those of the esophagus, stomach, small intestine, colon-rectum, liver, and pancreas-are highly related to genetics and lifestyle. Most are considered highly mortal due to the frequency of late diagnosis, usually in advanced stages, caused by the absence of symptoms or masked by other pathologies. Different tools are being investigated in the search of a more precise diagnosis and treatment. Plant lectins have been studied because of their ability to recognize and bind to carbohydrates, exerting a variety of biological activities on animal cells, including anticancer activities. The present report integrates existing information on the activity of plant lectins on various types of digestive system cancers, and surveys the current state of research into their properties for diagnosis and selective treatment.

The Troublesome Epidemiology of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma diagnoses have increased markedly in recent decades. Recent research with patients diagnosed with Barrett's esophagus (the only known precursor for esophageal adenocarcinoma) and esophageal adenocarcinoma has identified several modifiable and nonmodifiable potential risk factors. Consistent risk factors for both disorders include increasing age, male sex, white non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, gastroesophageal reflux disease, lack of infection with Helicobacter pylori, smoking, abdominal obesity, and a Western diet. The authors present detailed discussions of these risk factors along with possible explanations for some apparent discrepancies and ideas for future study.

Alternatives to Traditional Per-Oral Endoscopy for Screening

Barrett's esophagus (BE) predisposes patients to esophageal adenocarcinoma. 3 to 6% of individuals with gastro-esophageal reflux disease are estimated to have BE but only 20 to 25% of BE patients are currently diagnosed. The current gold standard for diagnosis of BE is per-oral upper GI endoscopy. As this is not suitable for large-scale screening, a number of alternative methods are currently being investigated: transnasal and video capsule endoscopy, endomicroscopy, cell collection devices like the cytosponge and biomarkers. Some of these are promising, however, well powered studies carried out in relevant screening populations are needed.

Disease Progression in Barrett's Low-Grade Dysplasia With Radiofrequency Ablation Compared With Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the only identifiable premalignant condition for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Management of BE with low-grade dysplasia continues to be controversial. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia or EAC among patients with BE with low-grade dysplasia treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) compared with surveillance endoscopy.

METHODS

Our search included Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central, was limited to English language articles, and was last searched on 31 December 2015. Studies were reviewed by title and abstract, and then full text by two independent reviewers. Two independent reviewers extracted data. Differences were resolved by consensus. The primary outcome of interest was the relative risk of disease progression among patients with BE with low-grade dysplasia treated with RFAcompared with surveillance.

RESULTS

Our search resulted in 2,029 citations, 19 studies were included in the final analysis, totaling 2,746 patients. Relative risk of disease progression in RFA compared with surveillance was 0.14% (95% confidence interval: 0.04-0.45), P=0.001. This measure was stable when only all studies were included. Absolute risk reduction was 10.9% and the number needed to treat was 9.2. Results were stable over several quality measures, overtime, and when excluding randomized trials. The cumulative rate of progression to high-grade dysplasia/EAC was lower in RFA compared with surveillance (1.7% vs. 12.6%, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Similarly, the incidence rate of progression among patients with surveillance was significantly higher from those treated with RFA (0.022 vs. 0.005, P<0.001). RFA results in a significant reduction risk of disease progression to high-grade dysplasia/EAC among patients with BE with low-grade dysplasia.

Parameter estimation for multistage clonal expansion models from cancer incidence data: A practical identifiability analysis

Many cancers are understood to be the product of multiple somatic mutations or other rate-limiting events. Multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models are a class of continuous-time Markov chain models that capture the multi-hit initiation–promotion–malignant-conversion hypothesis of carcinogenesis. These models have been used broadly to investigate the epidemiology of many cancers, assess the impact of carcinogen exposures on cancer risk, and evaluate the potential impact of cancer prevention and control strategies on cancer rates. Structural identifiability (the analysis of the maximum parametric information available for a model given perfectly measured data) of certain MSCE models has been previously investigated. However, structural identifiability is a theoretical property and does not address the limitations of real data. In this study, we use pancreatic cancer as a case study to examine the practical identifiability of the two-, three-, and four-stage clonal expansion models given age-specific cancer incidence data using a numerical profile-likelihood approach. We demonstrate that, in the case of the three- and four-stage models, several parameters that are theoretically structurally identifiable, are, in practice, unidentifiable. This result means that key parameters such as the intermediate cell mutation rates are not individually identifiable from the data and that estimation of those parameters, even if structurally identifiable, will not be stable. We also show that products of these practically unidentifiable parameters are practically identifiable, and, based on this, we propose new reparameterizations of the model hazards that resolve the parameter estimation problems. Our results highlight the importance of identifiability to the interpretation of model parameter estimates.

Parameter estimation from data is an important part of mathematical modeling, and structural identifiability is the study of what parametric information exists, for a given model, in ideal data. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, there is often less information available in our real data sets. The study of these problems is called practical identifiability. In this study, we consider a family of models of cancer biology that are commonly used to explain cancer incidence in terms of underlying biological parameters. Using profile likelihoods, a widely applicable numerical tool, we demonstrate that even though the more complex models we consider have theoretically more identifiable parameters, the data contains only three pieces of practically identifiable information for each model: the product of the initiating mutation rates, the net cell proliferation rate, and the scaled malignant conversion rate. This result can be interpreted biologically: we can determine only the product of cell mutation rates not the intermediate rates themselves. Our result limits the interpretability of previous work, but we propose a novel parameterization to resolve the identifiability issue. Ultimately, our analysis demonstrates the importance of verifying the practical identifiability of parameters before assigning too much weight to the interpretation of their estimated values.

An age-period-cohort analysis of obesity and incident esophageal adenocarcinoma among white males

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased in recent decades. Increases in incidence have been attributed to changes in the prevalence of risk factors for EAC; however, the extent to which these changes explain increases in EAC incidence has not been studied in detail. We used age-period-cohort analysis to estimate changes in the incidence of EAC among white males by age, time period, and birth cohort. Incidence rates per 100,000 individuals were analyzed from 1973 to 2012. Hierarchical Poisson models were used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects, whereby age-specific incidence rates were nested within periods and cohorts. The prevalence of obesity for each time period and birth cohort was included in the model as a fixed-effect. Incidence increased with advancing age (β = 0.12, P < 0.01). There were significant period and birth cohort effects, although the period effect was much larger than the cohort effect. The period effect decreased dramatically when obesity was included as a fixed effect, while the small cohort effect remained unchanged. Results suggest much of the increase in the incidence of EAC can be attributed to a period effect, which may be due to changes in the prevalence of obesity over time.

Opportunities for Preventing Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is rapidly increasing in incidence in many Western societies, requires demanding treatment, and is associated with a poor prognosis, therefore preventive measures are highly warranted. To assess the opportunities for prevention, we reviewed the available literature and identified seven main potentially preventive targets. Preventive effects were found on the basis of medium-level observational evidence following treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease (using both medication and surgery) and tobacco smoking cessation, which should be clinically recommended among exposed patients. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs appear to prevent EAC, and the limited existing data also indicate a protective effect of medication with statins or hormone replacement therapy in women, but current evidence is insufficient to guide clinical decision-making regarding these drugs. The evidence is presently insufficient to assess the potentially preventive role of weight loss. Whether avoidance of eradication of Helicobacter pylori prevents EAC is not studied, but there is no evidence that such eradication increases symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux or prevalence of erosive esophagitis. The introduction of preventive actions should be tailored toward high-risk individuals, that is, older men with obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease and individuals with Barrett esophagus rather than the population at large. Cancer Prev Res; 9(11); 828-34. ©2016 AACR.

Surveillance endoscopy is associated with improved outcomes of oesophageal adenocarcinoma detected in patients with Barrett's oesophagus

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of surveillance endoscopy in patients with Barrett's oesophagus (BE) for reducing oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC)-related mortality in patients with BE is unclear.

METHODS

This is a cohort study of patients with BE diagnosed in the National Veterans Affairs hospitals during 2004-2009 excluding those with conditions that affect overall survival. We identified those diagnosed with EAC after BE diagnosis through 2011 and conducted chart reviews to identify BE surveillance programme, and indication for EAC diagnosis, verify diagnosis, stage, therapy and cause of death. We examined the association between surveillance indication for EAC diagnosis with or without surveillance programme and EAC stage and treatment receipt in logistic regression models, and with time to death or cancer-related death using a Cox proportional hazards regression model.

RESULTS

Among 29 536 patients with BE, 424 patients developed EAC during a mean follow-up of 5.0 years. A total of 209 (49.3%) patients with EAC were in BE surveillance programme and were diagnosed as a result of surveillance endoscopy. These patients were more likely to be diagnosed at an early stage (stage 0 or 1: 74.7% vs 56.2, p<0.001), survived longer (median 3.2 vs 2.3 years; p<0.001) and have lower cancer-related mortality (34.0% vs 54.0%, p<0.0001) and had a trend to receive oesophagectomy (51.2% vs 42.3%; p=0.07) than 215 patients diagnosed by non-BE surveillance endoscopy (17.2% of whom were BE surveillance failure). BE surveillance endoscopy was associated with a decreased risk of cancer-related death (HR 0.47, 0.35 to 0.64), which was largely explained by the early stage of EAC at the time of diagnosis. Similarly, the adjusted mortality for patients with cancer in a prior surveillance programme for overall death was 0.63 (0.47 to 0.84) compared with patients with cancer not in a surveillance programme.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance endoscopy among patients with BE is associated with significantly better EAC outcomes including cancer-related mortality compared with other non-surveillance endoscopy.

A Molecular Clock Infers Heterogeneous Tissue Age Among Patients with Barrett's Esophagus

Biomarkers that drift differentially with age between normal and premalignant tissues, such as Barrett’s esophagus (BE), have the potential to improve the assessment of a patient’s cancer risk by providing quantitative information about how long a patient has lived with the precursor (i.e., dwell time). In the case of BE, which is a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), such biomarkers would be particularly useful because EAC risk may change with BE dwell time and it is generally not known how long a patient has lived with BE when a patient is first diagnosed with this condition. In this study we first describe a statistical analysis of DNA methylation data (both cross-sectional and longitudinal) derived from tissue samples from 50 BE patients to identify and validate a set of 67 CpG dinucleotides in 51 CpG islands that undergo age-related methylomic drift. Next, we describe how this information can be used to estimate a patient’s BE dwell time. We introduce a Bayesian model that incorporates longitudinal methylomic drift rates, patient age, and methylation data from individually paired BE and normal squamous tissue samples to estimate patient-specific BE onset times. Our application of the model to 30 sporadic BE patients’ methylomic profiles first exposes a wide heterogeneity in patient-specific BE onset times. Furthermore, independent application of this method to a cohort of 22 familial BE (FBE) patients reveals significantly earlier mean BE onset times. Our analysis supports the conjecture that differential methylomic drift occurs in BE (relative to normal squamous tissue) and hence allows quantitative estimation of the time that a BE patient has lived with BE.

Barrett’s Esophagus (BE) is a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). When a patient is diagnosed with BE, it is generally not known how long he/she has had this condition because BE is asymptomatic. While the question of how long a premalignant tissue or lesion has been resident in an organ (dwell time) may not be of importance for cases where curative interventions are readily available (such as adenomas in the colon), for BE, curative interventions are either costly or carry patient risks. Knowledge of a precursor’s dwell time may therefore be advantageous in determining the cancer risk due to the stepwise accumulation of critical mutations in the precursor. In this study, we create a molecular clock model that infers patient-specific BE onsets from DNA methylation data. We show that there is considerable variation in the predicted BE onset times which translates, using mathematical modeling of EAC, into large variation in individual EAC risks. We make the case that, notwithstanding other known risk factors such as chronological age, gender, reflux status, etc., knowledge of biological tissue age can provide valuable patient-specific risk information when a patient is first diagnosed with BE.

Polymorphisms in genes in the androgen pathway and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The strong male predominance in Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) remains inadequately explained, but sex hormones might be involved. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the androgen pathway influence risk of developing BE and EAC. This genetic-epidemiological analysis included 14 studies from Australia, Europe and North America. Polymorphisms in 16 genes coding for the androgen pathway were analyzed using a gene-based approach: versatile gene-based test association study. This method evaluates associations between a trait and all SNPs within a specific gene rather than each SNP marker individually as in a conventional GWAS. The data were stratified for sex, body-mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, tobacco smoking and gastroesophageal reflux status. Included were data from 1,508 EAC patients, 2,383 BE patients and 2,170 control participants. SNPs within the gene CYP17A1 were associated with risk of BE in the sexes combined (p = 0.002) and in males (p = 0.003), but not in females separately (p = 0.3). This association was found in tobacco smokers (p = 0.003) and in BE patients without reflux (p = 0.004), but not in nonsmokers (p = 0.2) or those with reflux (p = 0.036). SNPs within JMJD1C were associated with risk of EAC in females (p = 0.001). However, none of these associations replicated in a subsequent sample. Fourteen other genes studied did not reach statistically significant levels of association with BE, EAC or the combination of BE and EAC, after correcting for the number of genes included in the analysis. In conclusion, genetic variants in the androgen-related genes CYP17A1 and JMJD1C might be associated with risk of BE and EAC, respectively, but replication data with larger sample sizes are needed.

An Accurate Cancer Incidence in Barrett's Esophagus: A Best Estimate Using Published Data and Modeling

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Published estimates for the rate of progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) vary. We used simulation modeling to reconcile published data and more accurately estimate the incidence of EAC among people with BE.

METHODS

We calibrated the ERASMUS/UW model (a collaboration between Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands and the University of Washington, Seattle) for EAC to match the 0.18% annual rate of progression from population-based studies. This model was then used to simulate the design of prospective studies, introducing more endoscopic surveillance. We used the model to predict rates of progression for both types of studies and for different periods of follow-up, and compared the predicted rates with published data.

RESULTS

For the first 5 years of follow-up, the model reproduced the 0.19% mean annual rate of progression observed in population-based studies; the same disease model predicted a 0.36% annual rate of progression in studies with a prospective design (0.41% reported in published articles). After 20 years, these rates each increased to 0.63% to 0.65% annually, corresponding with a 9.1% to 9.5% cumulative cancer incidence. Between these periods, the difference between the progression rates of both study designs decreased from 91% to 5%.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first 5 years after diagnosis, the rate of progression from BE to EAC is likely to more closely approximate the lower estimates reported from population-based studies than the higher estimates reported from prospective studies in which EAC is detected by surveillance. Clinicians should use this information to explain to patients their short-term and long-term risks if no action is taken, and then discuss the risks and benefits of surveillance.

Ablative Endoscopic Therapies for Barrett's-Esophagus-Related Neoplasia

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is more common in developed countries. Endoscopic therapy is an effective treatment method in management of dysplastic BE. Ablation by thermal energy, freezing, or photochemical injury completely eradicates dysplasia and specialized intestinal metaplasia resulting in neosquamation of esophagus. Among the ablative modalities, radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is the most studied with safe, effective, and durable long-term outcomes. Cryotherapy, argon plasma coagulation, and photodynamic therapy can be offered in select patients when RFA is unavailable, has failed, or is contraindicated. Future research on natural disease progression, biomarkers, advanced imaging, and application of endoscopic techniques will lead to better clinical outcomes for BE-associated neoplasia.

Epidemiology of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a disease with increasing burden in the Western world, especially in white men. Risk factors for BE include obesity, tobacco smoking, and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). EAC is the most common form of esophageal cancer in the United States. Risk factors include GERD, tobacco smoking, and obesity, whereas nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and statins may be protective. Factors predicting progression from nondysplastic BE to EAC include dysplastic changes on esophageal histology and length of the involved BE segment. Biomarkers have shown promise, but none are approved for clinical use.

A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) patients are routinely screened for high grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) through endoscopic screening, during which multiple esophageal tissue samples are removed for histological analysis. We propose a computational method called the multistage clonal expansion for EAC (MSCE-EAC) screening model that is used for screening BE patients in silico to evaluate the effects of biopsy sampling, diagnostic sensitivity, and treatment on disease burden. Our framework seamlessly integrates relevant cell-level processes during EAC development with a spatial screening process to provide a clinically relevant model for detecting dysplastic and malignant clones within the crypt-structured BE tissue. With this computational approach, we retain spatio-temporal information about small, unobserved tissue lesions in BE that may remain undetected during biopsy-based screening but could be detected with high-resolution imaging. This allows evaluation of the efficacy and sensitivity of current screening protocols to detect neoplasia (dysplasia and early preclinical EAC) in the esophageal lining. We demonstrate the clinical utility of this model by predicting three important clinical outcomes: (1) the probability that small cancers are missed during biopsy-based screening, (2) the potential gains in neoplasia detection probabilities if screening occurred via high-resolution tomographic imaging, and (3) the efficacy of ablative treatments that result in the curative depletion of metaplastic and neoplastic cell populations in BE in terms of the long-term impact on reducing EAC incidence.

Endoscopic screening for detecting cancer and cancer precursors in Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is currently informed by repeated systematic biopsying of the metaplastic BE tissue. Here we present a comprehensive multiscale model of the natural history of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), which describes the entire multistage process beginning with the conversion event of normal squamous esophageal tissue to BE metaplasia, the spatio-temporal formation of independent dysplastic and malignant clones at the cell level, and finally the appearance of symptomatic EAC in BE. This model lends itself to a systematic exploration of the efficacy and sensitivity of current biopsy-based screening methods to detect neoplasia in BE patients, as well as alternative screening techniques based on high-resolution imaging of the BE tissue. Moreover, the model can also be used to predict the impact of ablative treatments on the risk of occurrence or recurrence of dysplasia or cancer. Due to the lack of studies that attempt to explicitly model the physical and biological dimensions of the screening process itself, our computational model provides a unique, publicly-available tool to improve understanding of factors that limit the efficacy of current screening protocols for BE patients.

The Role of Gastroesophageal Reflux and Other Factors during Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

U.S. esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence increased over 5-fold between 1975 and 2009. Symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease (sGERD) elevates the risk for EAC. However, a simple calculation suggests that changes in sGERD prevalence can explain at most approximately 16% of this trend. Importantly, a mechanistic understanding of the influence of sGERD and other factors (OF) on EAC is lacking.

METHODS

A multiscale model was developed to estimate temporal trends for sGERD and OF, and their mechanistic role during carcinogenesis. Model calibration was to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and age-dependent sGERD data using maximum likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

RESULTS

Among men, 77.8% [95% credibility interval (CI), 64.9%-85.6%] of the incidence trend is attributable to OF, 13.4% (95% CI, 11.4%-17.3%) to sGERD, and 8.8% (95% CI, 4.2%-13.7%) to sGERD-OF interactions. Among women, 32.6% (95% CI, 27.0%-39.9%) of the trend is attributable to OF, 13.6% (95% CI, 12.5%-15.9%) to sGERD, and 47.4% (95% CI, 30.7%-64.6%) to interactions. The predicted trends were compared with historical trends for obesity, smoking, and proton pump inhibitor use. Interestingly, predicted OF cohort trends correlated most highly with median body mass index (BMI) at age 50 (r = 0.988 for men; r = 0.998 for women).

CONCLUSIONS

sGERD and OF mechanistically increase premalignant cell promotion, which increases EAC risk exponentially with exposure duration.

IMPACT

Surveillance should target individuals with long-duration sGERD and OF exposures.

Precision prevention of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen rapidly over the past four decades. Unfortunately, treatments have not kept pace; unless their cancer is identified at a very early stage, most patients will not survive a year after diagnosis. The beginnings of this widespread problem were first recognized over 25 years ago, yet rates have continued to rise against a backdrop of much improved understanding and management of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We estimate that only ∼7% of the 10,000 cases of oesophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosed annually in the USA are identified through current approaches to cancer control, and trace pathways by which the remaining 93% are 'lost'. On the basis of emerging data on aetiology and predictive factors, together with new diagnostic tools, we suggest a five-tier strategy for prevention and control that begins with a wide population base and triages individuals into progressively higher risk strata, each with risk-appropriate prevention, screening and treatment options.