Tobacco Use and Cancer Risk in the Agricultural Health Study

From cultivation to cancer: formation of N-nitrosamines and other carcinogens in smokeless tobacco and their mutagenic implications

Tobacco use is a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality globally. Tobacco products, including smokeless tobacco (ST), generally contain tobacco-specific N-nitrosamines (TSNAs), such as N'-nitrosonornicotine (NNN) and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-butanone (NNK), which are potent carcinogens that cause mutations in critical genes in human DNA. This review covers the series of biochemical and chemical transformations, related to TSNAs, leading from tobacco cultivation to cancer initiation. A key aim of this review is to provide a greater understanding of TSNAs: their precursors, the microbial and chemical mechanisms that contribute to their formation in ST, their mutagenicity leading to cancer due to ST use, and potential means of lowering TSNA levels in tobacco products. TSNAs are not present in harvested tobacco but can form due to nitrosating agents reacting with tobacco alkaloids present in tobacco during certain types of curing. TSNAs can also form during or following ST production when certain microorganisms perform nitrate metabolism, with dissimilatory nitrate reductases converting nitrate to nitrite that is then released into tobacco and reacts chemically with tobacco alkaloids. When ST usage occurs, TSNAs are absorbed and metabolized to reactive compounds that form DNA adducts leading to mutations in critical target genes, including the RAS oncogenes and the p53 tumor suppressor gene. DNA repair mechanisms remove most adducts induced by carcinogens, thus preventing many but not all mutations. Lastly, because TSNAs and other agents cause cancer, previously documented strategies for lowering their levels in ST products are discussed, including using tobacco with lower nornicotine levels, pasteurization and other means of eliminating microorganisms, omitting fermentation and fire-curing, refrigerating ST products, and including nitrite scavenging chemicals as ST ingredients.

Evidence relating cigarette, cigar and pipe smoking to lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Meta-analysis of recent data from three regions

BACKGROUND

There is a need to have up-to-date information for various diseases on the risk related to the use of different smoked products and the use of other nicotine-containing products. Here, we contribute to the information pool by presenting up-to-date quantitative evidence for North America, Europe and Japan and for both lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on the relative risk (RR) relating to current vs never product use for each of the three smoked tobacco products, cigarettes, cigars and pipes.

AIM

To estimate lung cancer and COPD current smoking RRs for the three products using recent data for the three regions.

METHODS

Publications in English from 2010 to 2020 were considered that, based on epidemiological studies in the three regions, estimated the current smoking RR of lung cancer and/or COPD for one or more of the three products. The studies should involve at least 100 cases of the disease considered, not be restricted to specific lung cancer types or populations with specific medical conditions, and should be of cohort or nested case-control study design or randomized controlled trials. Literature searches were conducted on MEDLINE separately for lung cancer and for COPD, examining titles and abstracts initially, and then full texts. Additional papers were sought from reference lists of selected papers, reviews and meta-analyses. For each study identified, the most recent available data on each product were entered on current smoking, as well as on characteristics of the study and the RR estimates. Combined RR estimates were derived using random-effects meta-analysis. For cigarette smoking, where far more data were available, heterogeneity was studied by a wide range of factors. For cigar and pipe smoking, a more limited heterogeneity analysis was carried out. Results were compared with those from previous meta-analyses published since 2000.

RESULTS

Current cigarette smoking: For lung cancer, 44 studies (26 North American, 14 European, three Japanese, and one in multiple continents), gave an overall estimate of 12.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.30-14.30]. The estimates were higher (heterogeneity P < 0.001) for North American (15.15, CI 12.77-17.96) and European studies (12.30, CI 9.77-15.49) than for Japanese studies (3.61, CI 2.87-4.55), consistent with previous evidence of lower RRs for Asia. RRs were higher (P < 0.05) for death (14.85, CI 11.99-18.38) than diagnosis (10.82, CI 8.61-13.60). There was some variation (P < 0.05) by study population, with higher RRs for international and regional studies than for national studies and studies of specific populations. RRs were higher in males, as previously reported, the within-study male/female ratio of RRs being 1.52 (CI 1.20-1.92). RRs did not vary significantly (P ≥ 0.05) by other factors. For COPD, RR estimates were provided by 18 studies (10 North American, seven European, and one Japanese). The overall estimate of 9.19 (CI 6.97-12.13), was based on heterogeneous data (P < 0.001), and higher than reported earlier. There was no (P > 0.1) variation by sex, region or exclusive use, but limited evidence (0.05 < P < 0.1) that RR estimates were greater where cases occurring shortly after baseline were ignored; where bronchiectasis was excluded from the COPD definition; and with greater confounder adjustment. Within-study comparisons showed adjusted RRs exceeded unadjusted RRs. Current cigar smoking: Three studies gave an overall lung cancer RR of 2.73 (CI 2.36-3.15), with no heterogeneity, lower than the 4.67 (CI 3.49-6.25) reported in an earlier review. Only one study gave COPD results, the RR (2.44, CI 0.98-6.05) being imprecise. Current pipe smoking: Four studies gave an overall lung cancer RR of 4.93 (CI 1.97-12.32), close to the 5.20 (CI 3.50-7.73) given earlier. However, the estimates were heterogeneous, with two above 10, and two below 3. Only one study gave COPD results, the RR (1.12, CI 0.29-4.40), being imprecise. For both diseases, the lower RR estimates for cigars and for pipes than for current smoking of cigarettes aligns with earlier published evidence.

CONCLUSION

Current cigarette smoking substantially increases lung cancer and COPD risk, more so in North America and Europe than Japan. Limited evidence confirms lower risks for cigars and pipes than cigarettes.

Association of cigarette smoking habits with the risk of prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Association of cigarette smoking habits with the risk of prostate cancer is still a matter of debate. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the association between cigarette smoking and prostate cancer risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science without language or time restrictions on June 11, 2022. Literature search and study screening were performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Prospective cohort studies that assessed the association between cigarette smoking habits and the risk of prostate cancer were included. Quality assessment was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We used random-effects models to obtain pooled estimates and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 7296 publications were screened, of which 44 cohort studies were identified for qualitative analysis; 39 articles comprising 3 296 398 participants and 130 924 cases were selected for further meta-analysis. Current smoking had a significantly reduced risk of prostate cancer (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68-0.80; P < 0.001), especially in studies completed in the prostate-specific antigen screening era. Compared to former smokers, current smokers had a significant lower risk of PCa (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75; P < 0.001). Ever smoking showed no association with prostate cancer risk in overall analyses (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-1.00; P = 0.074), but an increased risk of prostate cancer in the pre-prostate-specific antigen screening era (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.00-1.10; P = 0.046) and a lower risk of prostate cancer in the prostate-specific antigen screening era (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99; P = 0.011) were observed. Former smoking did not show any association with the risk of prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that the lower risk of prostate cancer in smokers can probably be attributed to their poor adherence to cancer screening and the occurrence of deadly smoking-related diseases, and we should take measures to help smokers to be more compliant with early cancer screening and to quit smoking.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022326464).

Etiology of lung cancer: Evidence from epidemiologic studies

Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer incidence and mortality worldwide. While smoking, radon, air pollution, as well as occupational exposure to asbestos, diesel fumes, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, nickel, and silica are well-established risk factors, many lung cancer cases cannot be explained by these known risk factors. Over the last two decades the incidence of adenocarcinoma has risen, and it now surpasses squamous cell carcinoma as the most common histologic subtype. This increase warrants new efforts to identify additional risk factors for specific lung cancer subtypes as well as a comprehensive review of current evidence from epidemiologic studies to inform future studies. Given the myriad exposures individuals experience in real-world settings, it is essential to investigate mixture effects from complex exposures and gene-environment interactions in relation to lung cancer and its subtypes.

Review with meta-analysis relating North American, European and Japanese snus or smokeless tobacco use to major smoking-related diseases

BACKGROUND

While extensive information exists relating cigarette smoking to the risk of lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and stroke, far less information is available on risks from moist snuff (“snus”) or smokeless tobacco (ST) in United States/Canada, Europe or Japan.

AIM

To summarize data from the selected countries on risks of the four diseases associated with current ST or snus use.

METHODS

Publications in English in 1990-2020 were considered that, based on epidemiological studies in North America, Europe or Japan, estimated risks of lung cancer, COPD, IHD/AMI, or stroke according to use of ST or snus. The studies should involve at least 100 cases of the disease considered, and not be restricted to those with specific other diseases. Medline literature searches were conducted, selecting papers initially from examination of titles and abstracts, and then from full texts. Further papers were sought from reference lists in selected papers, reviews and meta-analyses. For each disease, relative risk estimates adjusted at least for age were extracted relating ST or snus use to risk, and combined using random-effects meta-analysis. The estimates were mainly for current vs. never or non-current use, but results for ever vs never use were also considered.

RESULTS

Seven publications reported results for ST use from six United States studies. The most useful results came from four studies which provided results for current vs. never use. Random-effects meta-analyses of these results showed an increased risk for each disease, clearest for lung cancer (relative risk 1.59, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.39, based on 4 estimates) and COPD (1.57, 1.09-2.26, n = 3), but also significant (at P < 0.05) for IHD (1.26, 1.10-1.45, n = 4) and stroke (1.27, 1.03-1.57, n = 4). Also including results for ever vs. never use from two other studies increased the lung cancer estimate to 1.80 (1.23-2.64, n = 6), but had little effect on the other estimates. For snus, 16 publications described results from 12 studies, one in Norway and the rest in Sweden. There were no results for COPD, and only three for lung cancer, with these reporting a relative risk of 0.80 (0.40-1.30) for current vs never use. More extensive data were available for IHD/AMI and stroke. Using the latest results from each study, combined estimates for current vs. never use were 1.00 (0.91-1.11, n = 5) for IHD/AMI and 1.05 (0.95-1.17, n = 2) for stroke, while for current vs. non-current use they were 1.10 (0.92-1.33, n = 9) for IHD/AMI and 1.12 (0.86-1.45, n = 9) for stroke. Meta-analyses including earlier results from some studies also showed no significant association between snus use and IHD/AMI or stroke. No relevant results were found for Japan.

CONCLUSION

Risks of smoking-related diseases from snus use in Scandinavia are not demonstrated, while those from ST use in the United States are less than from smoking.

Characterization of Total and Unprotonated (Free) Nicotine Content of Nicotine Pouch Products

INTRODUCTION

Nicotine pouch products, oral smokeless products that contain nicotine but no tobacco leaf material, have recently entered the US marketplace. Available data indicate sales of these products in the United States have increased since 2018; however, the extent of use among US youth and adults is uncertain.

METHODS

To assay the chemistry of these emerging tobacco products, we analyzed 37 nicotine pouch brands from six total manufacturers. Almost all of the products had flavor descriptors (36 of 37), such as mint, licorice, coffee, cinnamon, and fruit. The amount of free nicotine, the form most easily absorbed, was calculated for each product using total nicotine, product pH, the appropriate pKa, and the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation.

RESULTS

Nicotine pouch products varied in pouch content mass, moisture content (1.12%‒47.2%), alkalinity (pH 6.86‒10.1), and % free nicotine (7.7%‒99.2%). Total nicotine content ranged from 1.29 to 6.11 mg/pouch, whereas free nicotine ranged from 0.166 to 6.07 mg/pouch. These findings indicate that nicotine and pH levels found in some of these nicotine pouches are similar to conventional tobacco products, such as moist snuff and snus, and that most of these pouch products are flavored.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these products likely lack many tobacco-related chemicals, each product analyzed contained nicotine, which is both addictive and can harm human health. Given that nicotine pouches may appeal to a spectrum of users, from novice to experienced users, it is important to include these emerging tobacco products in tobacco control research, policy, and practice.

IMPLICATIONS

These "tobacco-free" nicotine pouches have similar pH and nicotine content to conventional tobacco products, such as moist snuff and snus. Although they lack many tobacco-related chemicals, most are highly flavored which could increase experimentation from new users. Given that nicotine pouches may appeal to a spectrum of users, from novice to experienced users, in terms of their flavors and nicotine content, it is important to examine and include these emerging tobacco products as they relate to tobacco control research, policy, and practice.

An Association Rule Mining Analysis of Lifestyle Behavioral Risk Factors in Cancer Survivors with High Cardiovascular Disease Risk

We aimed to assess which lifestyle risk behaviors have the greatest influence on the risk of cardiovascular disease in cancer survivors and which of these behaviors are most prominently clustered in cancer survivors, using logistic regression and association rule mining (ARM). We analyzed a consecutive series of 897 cancer survivors from the Korean National Health and Nutritional Exam Survey (2012-2016). Cardiovascular disease risks were assessed using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease score (ASCVDs). We classified participants as being in a low-risk group if their calculated ASCVDs was less than 10% and as being in a high-risk group if their score was 10% or higher. We used association rule mining to analyze patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors by ASCVDs risk group, based upon public health recommendations described in the Alameda 7 health behaviors (current smoking, heavy drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, breakfast skipping, frequent snacking, and suboptimal sleep duration). Forty-two percent of cancer survivors had a high ASCVD. Current smoking (common odds ratio, 11.19; 95% confidence interval, 3.66-34.20, p < 0.001) and obesity (common odds ratio, 2.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-5.08, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of high ASCVD in cancer survivors within a multivariate model. In ARM analysis, current smoking and obesity were identified as important lifestyle risk behaviors in cancer survivors. In addition, various lifestyle risk behaviors co-occurred with smoking in male cancer survivors.

Beliefs About the Health Effects of Smoking Among Adults in the United States

The majority of U.S. adults believe that smoking is a cause of lung cancer, but research suggests that the percentage of adults who believe smoking causes other types of cancers and chronic disease is lower. This study examines the correlates of beliefs about several established health effects of smoking in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Data for this study come from Wave 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study conducted from December 2016 to January 2018. Participants responded to questions assessing their beliefs about the health effects of smoking. Logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between beliefs about the health effects of smoking and sociodemographic characteristics (smoker status, age, sex, education, race/ethnicity), exposure to antitobacco campaigns, smokers' health, and nicotine dependence. The percentage of U.S. adults who endorsed a health effect can be caused from smoking ranged from 56.4% for blindness to 97.4% for lung disease. Respondents who were older, less educated, current or former smokers, and had less exposure to antitobacco campaigns were generally less likely (p < .05) to endorse that an established health effect was caused by smoking. Smokers with lower nicotine dependence and worse health were generally more likely (p < .05) to endorse that an established health effect was caused by smoking. In summary, knowledge about the health effects of smoking varies across health conditions. Public health would benefit from campaigns targeting segments of the population with less knowledge about the health effects of smoking.

Reducing the smoking-related health burden in the USA through diversion to electronic cigarettes: a system dynamics simulation study

BACKGROUND

Electronic cigarettes ("e-cigarettes") have altered tobacco smoking trends, and their impacts are controversial. Given their lower risk relative to combustible tobacco, e-cigarettes have potential for harm reduction. This study presents a simulation-based analysis of an e-cigarette harm reduction policy set in the USA.

METHODS

A system dynamics simulation model was constructed, with separate aging chains representing people in different stages of use (both of combustible cigarettes and e-cigarettes). These structures interact with a policy module to close the gap between actual (simulated) and goal numbers of individuals who smoke, chosen to reduce the tobacco-attributable death rate (i.e., mostly combustible cigarette-attributable, but conservatively allowing e-cigarette-attributable deaths) to that due to all accidents in the general population. The policy is two-fold, removing existing e-liquid flavor bans and providing an informational campaign promoting e-cigarettes as a lower-risk alternative. Realistic practical implementation challenges are modeled in the policy sector, including time delays, political resistance, and budgetary limitations. Effects of e-cigarettes on tobacco smoking occur through three mechanisms: (1) diversion from ever initiating smoking; (2) reducing progression to established smoking; and (3) increasing smoking cessation. An important unintended effect of possible death from e-cigarettes was conservatively included.

RESULTS

The base-case model replicated the historical exponential decline in smoking and the exponential increase in e-cigarette use since 2010. Simulations suggest tobacco smoking could be reduced to the goal level approximately 40 years after implementation. Implementation obstacles (time delays, political resistance, and budgetary constraints) could delay and weaken the effect of the policy by up to 62% in the worst case, relative to the ideal-case scenario; however, these discrepancies substantially decreased over time in dampened oscillations as negative feedback loops stabilize the system after the one-time "shock" introduced by policy changes.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation suggests that the promotion of e-cigarettes as a harm-reduction policy is a viable strategy, given current evidence that e-cigarettes offset or divert from smoking. Given the strong effects of implementation challenges on policy effectiveness in the short term, accurately modeling such obstacles can usefully inform policy design. Ongoing research is needed, given continuing changes in e-cigarette use prevalence, new policies being enacted for e-cigarettes, and emerging evidence for substitution effects between combustible cigarettes and e-cigarettes.

Association Between Triglyceride Glucose Index and Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Risk in Chinese Population

Background

Numerous studies showed that insulin resistance (IR) was associated with cancer risk. However, few studies investigated the relationship between IR and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study is to explore the association of triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, a simple surrogate marker of IR, with NSCLC risk.

Methods

791 histologically confirmed NSCLC cases and 787 controls were enrolled in the present study. Fasting blood glucose and triglyceride were measured. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dl) ×fasting glucose (mg/dl)/2]. Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between NSCLC risk and the TyG index.

Results

The TyG index was significantly higher in patients with NSCLC than that in controls (8.42 ± 0.55 vs 8.00 ± 0.45, P < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that the TyG index (OR = 3.651, 95%CI 2.461–5.417, P < 0.001) was independently associated with NSCLC risk after adjusting for conventional risk factors. In addition, a continuous rise in the incidence of NSCLC was observed along the tertiles of the TyG index (29.4 vs 53.8 vs 67.2%, P < 0.001). However, there were no differences of the TyG index in different pathological or TNM stages. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level for the TyG index to predict incident NSCLC was 8.18, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.713(95% CI 0.688–0.738).

Conclusions

The TyG index is significantly correlated with NSCLC risk, and it may be suitable as a predictor for NSCLC.

Contemporary Associations of Exclusive Cigarette, Cigar, Pipe, and Smokeless Tobacco Use With Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in the United States

Background

A growing proportion of tobacco users in the United States use non-cigarette products including cigars, pipes, and smokeless tobacco. Studies examining the disease and mortality risks of these products are urgently needed.

Methods

We harmonized tobacco use data from 165 335 adults in the 1991, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2005, and 2010 National Health Interview Surveys. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cause-specific mortality occurring through December 31, 2015, were estimated by exclusive use of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, or smokeless tobacco using Cox proportional hazards regression with age as the underlying time metric and never tobacco users as the referent group.

Results

Current use of cigarettes (HR = 2.23, 95% CI = 2.13 to 2.33) and smokeless tobacco (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.59) were each associated with overall mortality. Relative to never tobacco users, higher risks were observed both in daily (HR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.24 to 2.44) and nondaily (HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.54 to 1.86) cigarette smokers, with associations also observed across major smoking-related causes of death. Daily use of smokeless tobacco was also associated with overall mortality (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.20 to 1.66) as was daily use of cigars (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.08). Current smokeless tobacco use was associated with a higher risk of mortality from heart disease and smoking-related cancer, with strong associations observed for cancers of the oral cavity and bladder.

Conclusions

Exclusive daily use of cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco was associated with higher mortality risk. Tobacco control efforts should include cigars and smokeless tobacco.

Cancer incidence in the Agricultural Health Study after 20 years of follow-up

PURPOSE

To evaluate cancer incidence in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS), a cohort of private pesticide applicators, their spouses, and commercial applicators, based on 12,420 cancers, adding 5,989 cancers, and 9 years of follow-up since last evaluation.

METHODS

We calculated age, year, sex, and race-adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cancer sites in the AHS relative to the general population.

RESULTS

Overall AHS cancer incidence was lower than the general population (SIR_private = 0.91, CI 0.89-0.93; SIR_spouse = 0.89, CI 0.86-0.92; SIR_commercial = 0.83, CI 0.76-0.92), with notable deficits across applicators and spouses for oral cavity, pancreas, and lung cancers. Cancer excesses included prostate cancer, lip cancer, certain B-cell lymphomas (e.g., multiple myeloma), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), thyroid cancer, testicular cancer, and peritoneal cancer. The lung cancer deficit was strongest among applicators reporting potential exposure to endotoxin at study enrollment (tasks such as raising animals and handling stored grain).

CONCLUSIONS

Although an overall deficit in cancer was observed, there were notable exceptions, including newly observed excesses for AML, thyroid, testicular, and peritoneal cancers. Furthermore, endotoxin exposure may, in part, account for observed lung cancer incidence deficits. Cancer incidence patterns in the AHS suggest farm exposures' relevance to cancer etiology.

Identification of more than 100 structurally unique DNA-phosphate adducts formed during rat lung carcinogenesis by the tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone

The tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is a powerful lung carcinogen in animal models and is considered a causative factor for lung cancer in people who use tobacco products. NNK undergoes metabolic activation-a critical step in its mechanism of carcinogenesis-to an intermediate which reacts with DNA to form pyridyloxobutyl DNA base and phosphate adducts. Another important metabolic pathway of NNK is its conversion to 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL), which similarly forms pyridylhydroxybutyl DNA base adducts that have been characterized previously. In this study, we investigated the potential formation of pyridylhydroxybutyl DNA phosphate adducts. We report the characterization and quantitation of 107 structurally unique pyridylhydroxybutyl DNA phosphate adducts in the lungs of rats treated chronically with a carcinogenic dose of 5 ppm of NNK in their drinking water for up to 70 weeks, by using a novel liquid chromatography-nanoelectrospray ionization-high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry method. Our findings demonstrate that pyridylhydroxybutyl phosphate adducts account for 38-55 and 34-40% of all the measured pyridine-containing DNA adducts in rat lung and liver, respectively, upon treatment with NNK. Some of the pyridylhydroxybutyl DNA phosphate adducts persisted in both tissues for over 70 weeks, suggesting that they could be potential biomarkers of chronic exposure to NNK and NNAL. This study provides comprehensive characterization and relative quantitation of a panel of NNK/NNAL-derived DNA phosphate adducts, thus identifying NNK as the source of the most structurally diverse set of DNA adducts identified to date from any carcinogen.

Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States

Contemporary information on the fraction of cancers that potentially could be prevented is useful for priority setting in cancer prevention and control. Herein, the authors estimate the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases and deaths, overall (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and for 26 cancer types, in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States in 2014, that were attributable to major, potentially modifiable exposures (cigarette smoking; secondhand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol intake; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits/vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and 6 cancer-associated infections). The numbers of cancer cases were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute; the numbers of deaths were obtained from the CDC; risk factor prevalence estimates were obtained from nationally representative surveys; and associated relative risks of cancer were obtained from published, large-scale pooled analyses or meta-analyses. In the United States in 2014, an estimated 42.0% of all incident cancers (659,640 of 1570,975 cancers, excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 45.1% of cancer deaths (265,150 of 587,521 deaths) were attributable to evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking accounted for the highest proportion of cancer cases (19.0%; 298,970 cases) and deaths (28.8%; 169,180 deaths), followed by excess body weight (7.8% and 6.5%, respectively) and alcohol intake (5.6% and 4.0%, respectively). Lung cancer had the highest number of cancers (184,970 cases) and deaths (132,960 deaths) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by colorectal cancer (76,910 cases and 28,290 deaths). These results, however, may underestimate the overall proportion of cancers attributable to modifiable factors, because the impact of all established risk factors could not be quantified, and many likely modifiable risk factors are not yet firmly established as causal. Nevertheless, these findings underscore the vast potential for reducing cancer morbidity and mortality through broad and equitable implementation of known preventive measures. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:31-54. © 2017 American Cancer Society.