Early Modeled Longitudinal CA-125 Kinetics and Survival of Ovarian Cancer Patients: A GINECO AGO MRC CTU Study

Model-informed precision dosing: State of the art and future perspectives

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) stands as a significant development in personalized medicine to tailor drug dosing to individual patient characteristics. MIPD moves beyond traditional therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) by integrating mathematical predictions of dosing, and considering patient-specific factors (patient characteristics, drug measurements) as well as different sources of variability. For this purpose, rigorous model qualification is required for the application of MIPD in patients. This review delves into new methods in model selection and validation, also highlighting the role of machine learning in improving MIPD, the utilization of biosensors for real-time monitoring, as well as the potential of models integrating biomarkers for efficacy or toxicity for precision dosing. The clinical evidence of TDM and MIPD is discussed for various medical fields including infection medicine, oncology, transplant medicine, and inflammatory bowel diseases, thereby underscoring the role of pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and specific biomarkers. Further research, particularly randomized clinical trials, is warranted to corroborate the value of MIPD in enhancing patient outcomes and advancing personalized medicine.

Prognostic Role of CA-125 Elimination Rate Constant (KELIM) in Patients with Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Who Received PARP Inhibitors

BACKGROUND

This multicenter retrospective study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the CA-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM) in EOC patients who received platinum-based chemotherapy followed by PARP inhibitors, in either upfront or interval treatment settings.

METHODS

Between July 2019 and November 2022, we identified stage III-IV EOC patients who underwent primary or interval cytoreductive surgery and received olaparib or niraparib. Individual KELIM values were assessed based on validated kinetics and classified into favorable and unfavorable cohorts.

RESULTS

In a study of 252 patients undergoing frontline maintenance therapy with olaparib or niraparib, favorable KELIM (≥1) scores were associated with a higher PFS benefit in the primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) cohort (hazard ratio (HR) for disease progression or death 3.51, 95% confidence interval (CI); 1.37-8.97, p = 0.009). Additionally, within the interval cytoreductive surgery (ICS) cohort, a favorable KELIM score (≥1) significantly increased the likelihood of achieving complete resection following cytoreductive surgery, with 59.4% in the favorable KELIM group compared to 37.8% in those with unfavorable KELIM.

CONCLUSIONS

A favorable KELIM score was associated with improved PFS in patients with advanced EOC undergoing PCS. Furthermore, in the ICS cohort, a favorable KELIM score increased the probability of complete cytoreduction.

The serum LDH level and KELIM scores are potential predictors of a benefit from bevacizumab first-line therapy for patients with advanced ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE

The survival benefit of first-line treatment with bevacizumab in advanced ovarian cancer patients are multifaceted. In our study, we aimed to identify potential markers of bevacizumab efficacy to help predict which patients would experience survival benefits.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of 114 patients examined from January 1, 2015, to March 1, 2023, and data on clinical, biological, and imaging variables, such as ascites, serum LDH, and CA125, were extracted from electronic medical records. We performed a correlation analysis and principal component analysis to investigate correlations among variables and reduce their dimensionality. Then, univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify the predictors of progression-free survival.

RESULTS

Favorable KELIM score (≥ 1, HR 0.376, 95% CI [0.202-0.700], p = 0.002), which indicated better chemosensitivity, and lower LDH levels (≤ 210 U/L, HR 38.73, 95% CI [6.108-245.6], p < 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of a treatment benefit with bevacizumab in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. Regardless of LDH level, patients with favorable KELIM scores had a higher progression-free survival (PFS) benefit (p = 0.18). Among patients with unfavorable KELIM scores, those with higher LDH levels had the lowest PFS benefit (median: 11.5 months, p = 0.0059).

CONCLUSION

Patients with poor chemosensitivity and low LDH levels are more likely to benefit from first-line bevacizumab treatment. The combination of the two markers can be a helpful predictor of patients who are most likely to benefit from treatment and a guide for treatment decisions-making. Retrospectively registered: 2020-MD-371, 2020.10.12.

Clinical value of serum tumor markers in assessing the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced ovarian cancer: single-center prospective clinical study

Objective

This study aimed to assess the clinical importance of various biomarkers, including NLR, CEA, CA199, CA125, CA153, and HE4, through dynamic testing to evaluate the effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) for individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer. This provides valuable information for tailoring treatment plans to individual patients, thereby leading to a more personalized and effective management of individuals facing ovarian cancer.

Methods

The levels of NLR, CA125, CA199, CEA, CA153, and HE4 were detected before chemotherapy and after 3 courses of chemotherapy. Patients were categorized into ineffective and effective groups according to the effectiveness of NACT. To evaluate the factors influencing NACT's effectiveness in individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, predictive modeling, and multifactorial regression analysis were employed.

Results

In the effective group, the patients' age, maximum tumor diameter, and CEA and HE4 levels of the patients were significantly higher compared to those in the ineffective group (P <.05). Additionally, the difference in HE4 levels before and after treatment between the effective and ineffective groups was statistically significant (P<.05). Multifactorial analysis showed that age and maximum tumor diameter were independent risk factors impacting the effectiveness of NACT in individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer (P<.05). The ROC curve for predicting the effectiveness of NACT in individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer showed a sensitivity of 93.3% for NLR and a specificity of 92.3% for CA199. HE4 emerged as the most reliable predictor, demonstrating a specificity of 84.6% and a sensitivity of 75.3%. The area under the curve of the combined CA125 and HE4 assays for predicting the ineffectiveness of NACT in individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer was 0.825, showcasing a specificity of 74.2% and a sensitivity of 84.6%.

Conclusion

The predictive capacity for the effectiveness of NACT in individuals facing advanced ovarian cancer is notably high when considering the sensitivity of NLR and the specificity of CA199. Additionally, the combination of CA125 and HE4 assays can obtain a better predictive effect, which can accurately select patients suitable for NACT, determine the appropriate timing of the interval debulking surgery (IDS) surgery, and achieve a satisfactory tumor reduction effect.

CA-125 KELIM as an Alternative Predictive Tool to Identify Which Patients Can Benefit from PARPi in High-Grade Serous Advanced Ovarian Cancer: A Retrospective Pilot Diagnostic Accuracy Study

BRCA mutation and homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) are the criteria for the administration of PARP inhibitor (PARPi) maintenance therapy. It is known that PARPi efficacy is related to platinum sensitivity and that the latter can be demonstrated from the CA-125 elimination rate constant (KELIM). This study aims to investigate if KELIM can be another tool in the identification of patients that could be benefit from PARPi therapy. Retrospective analysis of patients with high-grade serous advanced ovarian cancer that underwent cytoreduction and was further tested for HRD status. The HRD status was tested either by myChoice HRD CDx assay or by RediScore assay. KELIM score was measured in both neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings with the online tool biomarker-kinetics.org. A total of 39 patients had available data for estimating both HRD status and KELIM score. When assuming KELIM as a binary index test with the value 1 as the cut-off point, the sensitivity was 0.86, 95% CI (0.64-0.97) and the specificity was 0.83, 95% CI (0.59-0.96). On the other hand, when assuming KELIM as a continuous index test, the area under the curve (AUC) was 81% and the optimal threshold, using the Youden index, was identified as 1.03 with a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 83.3%. KELIM score seems to be a new, cheaper, and faster tool to identify patients that can benefit from PARPi maintenance therapy.

Confirmation of the utility of the CA-125 elimination rate (KELIM) as an indicator of the chemosensitivity in advanced-stage ovarian cancer in a "real-life setting"

OBJECTIVE

The modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) has been validated as a marker of response to chemotherapy in >12,000 patients with advanced epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC) treated in first-line setting enrolled in >12 clinical trials. Patient KELIM is calculable online https://www.biomarker-kinetics.org/presentation. The objective was to investigate the prognostic value of KELIM in a large real-life national cancer registry with non-selected patients.

METHODS

We investigated 4,025 EOC patients from the Netherlands Cancer Registry treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) ± followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). Patient KELIM values were calculated in patients with ≥ 3 CA-125 measurements during NACT. KELIM was standardized with a pre-specified cut-off and scored as unfavorable/favorable (<1.0/≥1.0). KELIM's prognostic value regarding radiological response, completeness of IDS, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

The data from 1,582 patients treated with heterogeneous chemotherapy regimens and sequences were assessable. KELIM was prognostic for radiological response and the likelihood of complete IDS after NACT (odds ratio=2.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.04-3.29). Moreover, KELIM was independently associated with PFS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.76; 95% CI=0.66-0.87), and OS (HR=0.79; 95% CI=0.69-0.91). Combining KELIM with the completeness of the IDS resulted in 3 prognostic groups (satisfactory, intermediate, and poor) with significant OS differences, namely a good, intermediate, and poor survival respectively.

CONCLUSION

The value of KELIM, as a pragmatic indicator of response to chemotherapy, was maintained in a large real-life population-based cohort, highlighting its applicability in routine conditions.

Bevacizumab, olaparib, and durvalumab in patients with relapsed ovarian cancer: a phase II clinical trial from the GINECO group

Most patients with advanced ovarian cancer (AOC) ultimately relapse after platinum-based chemotherapy. Combining bevacizumab, olaparib, and durvalumab likely drives synergistic activity. This open-label phase 2 study (NCT04015739) aimed to assess activity and safety of this triple combination in female patients with relapsed high-grade AOC following prior platinum-based therapy. Patients were treated with olaparib (300 mg orally, twice daily), the bevacizumab biosimilar FKB238 (15 mg/kg intravenously, once-every-3-weeks), and durvalumab (1.12 g intravenously, once-every-3-weeks) in nine French centers. The primary endpoint was the non-progression rate at 3 months for platinum-resistant relapse or 6 months for platinum-sensitive relapse per RECIST 1.1 and irRECIST. Secondary endpoints were CA-125 decline with CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM-B) per CA-125 longitudinal kinetics over 100 days, progression free survival and overall survival, tumor response, and safety. Non-progression rates were 69.8% (90%CI 55.9%-80.0%) at 3 months for platinum-resistant relapse patients (N = 41), meeting the prespecified endpoint, and 43.8% (90%CI 29.0%-57.4%) at 6 months for platinum-sensitive relapse (N = 33), not meeting the prespecified endpoint. Median progression-free survival was 4.1 months (95%CI 3.5-5.9) and 4.9 months (95%CI 2.9-7.0) respectively. Favorable KELIM-B was associated with better survival. No toxic deaths or major safety signals were observed. Here we show that further investigation of this triple combination may be considered in AOC patients with platinum-resistant relapse.

ESGO-ESMO-ESP consensus conference recommendations on ovarian cancer: pathology and molecular biology and early, advanced and recurrent disease

The European Society of Gynaecological Oncology, the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) and the European Society of Pathology held a consensus conference (CC) on ovarian cancer on 15-16 June 2022 in Valencia, Spain. The CC panel included 44 experts in the management of ovarian cancer and pathology, an ESMO scientific advisor and a methodologist. The aim was to discuss new or contentious topics and develop recommendations to improve and harmonise the management of patients with ovarian cancer. Eighteen questions were identified for discussion under four main topics: (i) pathology and molecular biology, (ii) early-stage disease and pelvic mass in pregnancy, (iii) advanced stage (including older/frail patients) and (iv) recurrent disease. The panel was divided into four working groups (WGs) to each address questions relating to one of the four topics outlined above, based on their expertise. Relevant scientific literature was reviewed in advance. Recommendations were developed by the WGs and then presented to the entire panel for further discussion and amendment before voting. This manuscript focuses on the recommendation statements that reached a consensus, their voting results and a summary of evidence supporting each recommendation.

Discordance between GCIG CA-125 progression and RECIST progression in the CALYPSO trial of patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

CA-125 alone is widely used to diagnose progressive disease (PD) in platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer (PSROC) on chemotherapy. However, there are increasing concerns regarding its accuracy. We assessed concordance between progression defined by CA-125 and RECIST using data from the CALYPSO trial.

METHODS

We computed concordance rates for PD by CA-125 and RECIST to determine the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV).

RESULTS

Of 769 (79%) evaluable participants, 387 had CA-125 PD, where only 276 had concordant RECIST PD (PPV 71%, 95% CI 67-76%). For 382 without CA-125 PD, 255 had RECIST PD but 127 did not (NPV 33%, 95% CI 29-38). There were significant differences in NPV according to baseline CA-125 (≤100 vs >100: 42% vs 25%, P < 0.001); non-measurable vs measurable disease (51% vs 26%, P < 0.001); and platinum-free-interval (>12 vs 6-12 months: 41% vs 14%, P < 0.001). We observed falling CA-125 levels in 78% of patients with RECIST PD and CA-125 non-PD.

CONCLUSION

Approximately 2 in 3 women with PSROC have RECIST PD but not CA-125 PD by GCIG criteria. Monitoring CA-125 levels alone is not reliable for detecting PD. Further research is required to investigate the survival impact of local therapy in radiological detected early asymptomatic PD.

HE4 and CA-125 kinetics to predict outcome in patients with recurrent epithelial ovarian carcinoma: the META4 clinical trial

HE4 and CA-125 are used for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) screening, diagnosis, and follow-up. Our objective was to study HE4 and CA-125 kinetics in patients treated for recurrent EOC. Serum samples were prospectively collected before the first chemotherapy cycle and every 3 months until disease progression. Data from 89/101 patients could be analyzed. At baseline, the median CA-125 and HE4 concentrations were 210 IU/L (7-10,310) and 184 pM (31-4,836). Among the 12 patients (13%) with normal CA-125 (<35 IU/L) concentration, eight had HE4 concentration ≥75 pM, and among the 16 patients with normal HE4 concentration (18%), 12 had increased CA-125 concentration. The median nadir concentrations were 31 IU/L (3-8,744) for CA-125 and 75 pM (20-4,836) for HE4. The median times to nadir were 14 (0-130) weeks for CA-125 and 12 (0-52) weeks for HE4. In multivariate analysis, CA-125 and HE4 nadir concentrations (<35 IU/L, HR 0.35, 95% CI: 0.17-0.72 and<75 pM, HR 0.40, 95% CI: 0.20-0.79) and time to CA-125 and HE4 nadir (>14 weeks, HR 0.37, 95% CI: 0.20-0.70 and >12 weeks, HR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.23-0.83) were prognostic factors of progression-free survival. More investigations on HE4 kinetics could help to better monitor patients with CA-125 concentration within normal values.

Prognostic value of CA125 kinetics, half-life, and nadir in the treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prognostic value of cancer antigen 125 (CA125) related variables on progression free survival and overall survival in primary and recurrent ovarian cancers.

METHOD

A comprehensive review of the Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases was conducted to identify relevant literature on survival outcomes according to the ELIMination Rate Constant K (KELIM), Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup (GCIG) CA125 response criteria, CA125 half-life, and CA125 nadir levels during first line or later line chemotherapy. The search included articles published before February 2023. Cut-off values determining the favorable/unfavorable score of each study were extracted, and pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were analyzed using a random effects model to identify the relationship between survival outcomes of the favorable/unfavorable groups, which was determined by an individual model using CA125 kinetics.

RESULTS

A total of 27 studies with 14 444 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer were included in this meta-analysis. In primary ovarian cancer, a favorable KELIM score, determined by individual modeled cut-off values, was associated with a significant progression free survival (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.62) and overall survival (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.62) benefit in the primary setting. The favorable KELIM scored group also correlated with a better progression free survival (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.62) in relapsed disease. We failed to demonstrate a better prognostic value of the GCIG response criteria and the CA125 half-life for progression free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSION

Novel chemotherapy response scores, such as KELIM, may be more clinically relevant than other prognostic models using CA125 kinetics, being directly associated with a more favorable survival in both the primary and relapsed setting in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The systemic review and meta-analysis were registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023385512).

Treatment of evolving cancers will require dynamic decision support

Cancer research has traditionally focused on developing new agents, but an underexplored question is that of the dose and frequency of existing drugs. Based on the modus operandi established in the early days of chemotherapies, most drugs are administered according to predetermined schedules that seek to deliver the maximum tolerated dose and are only adjusted for toxicity. However, we believe that the complex, evolving nature of cancer requires a more dynamic and personalized approach. Chronicling the milestones of the field, we show that the impact of schedule choice crucially depends on processes driving treatment response and failure. As such, cancer heterogeneity and evolution dictate that a one-size-fits-all solution is unlikely-instead, each patient should be mapped to the strategy that best matches their current disease characteristics and treatment objectives (i.e. their 'tumorscape'). To achieve this level of personalization, we need mathematical modeling. In this perspective, we propose a five-step 'Adaptive Dosing Adjusted for Personalized Tumorscapes (ADAPT)' paradigm to integrate data and understanding across scales and derive dynamic and personalized schedules. We conclude with promising examples of model-guided schedule personalization and a call to action to address key outstanding challenges surrounding data collection, model development, and integration.

Support to early clinical decisions in drug development and personalised medicine with checkpoint inhibitors using dynamic biomarker-overall survival models

Longitudinal models of biomarkers such as tumour size dynamics capture treatment efficacy and predict treatment outcome (overall survival) of a variety of anticancer therapies, including chemotherapies, targeted therapies, immunotherapies and their combinations. These pharmacological endpoints like tumour dynamic (tumour growth inhibition) metrics have been proposed as alternative endpoints to complement the classical RECIST endpoints (objective response rate, progression-free survival) to support early decisions both at the study level in drug development as well as at the patients level in personalised therapy with checkpoint inhibitors. This perspective paper presents recent developments and future directions to enable wider and robust use of model-based decision frameworks based on pharmacological endpoints.

Survival and modelled cancer antigen-125 ELIMination rate constant K score in ovarian cancer patients in first-line before poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor era: A Gynaecologic Cancer Intergroup meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In patients with advanced ovarian cancer, the modelled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) is an early indicator of the tumour intrinsic chemosensitivity. We assessed the prognostic and surrogate values of KELIM with respect to those of surgery outcome (based on post-operative residual lesions) in the Gynaecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) individual patient data meta-analysis MAOV (Meta-Analysis in OVarian cancer) built before the emergence of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors.

METHODS

The dataset was split into learning and validation cohorts (ratio 1:2). The individual modelled KELIM values were estimated, standardised by the median value, then scored as unfavourable (<1.0) or favourable (≥1.0). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) analyses were performed with a two-step meta-analytic approach and surrogacy through a two-level meta-analytic model.

RESULTS

KELIM was assessed in 5884 patients from eight first-line trials (learning, 1962; validation, 3922). A favourable KELIM score was significantly associated with longer OS (validation set, median, 78.8 versus 28.4 months, hazard-ratios [HR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-0.50, C-index 0.68), and longer PFS (validation set, median 30.5 versus 9.8 months, HR 0.49, 95% CI, 0.45-0.54, C-index 0.68), as were International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and debulking surgery outcome. Three prognostic groups were identified based on the surgery outcome and KELIM score, with large differences in OS (105.1, ∼45.0, and 22.1 months) and PFS (58.1, ∼15.0, and 8.0 months). Surrogacy for OS and for PFS was not established.

CONCLUSION

KELIM is an independent prognostic biomarker for survival, complementary to surgery outcome, representing a new determinant of first-line treatment success.

KELIM score predicts outcome in patients with platinum-resistant/refractory recurrent ovarian cancer

Aim: To assess the prognostic role of the CA-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM) score in platinum-resistant/refractory ovarian cancer patients receiving second-line treatment. Methods: A retrospective study was carried out including 117 patients with advanced-stage platinum-resistant/refractory ovarian cancer treated with liposomal doxorubicin ± bevacizumab. The KELIM score, calculated using CA-125 measurements within the first 100 days of chemotherapy, was used. Survival analyses were performed for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Higher KELIM scores were associated with a superior PFS and OS. Multivariate analysis confirmed the independent prognostic value of the KELIM score for OS. Validation cohorts showed consistent results. Conclusion: KELIM score may serve as a valuable prognostic marker for predicting OS and PFS in platinum-resistant/refractory ovarian cancer patients receiving second-line treatment. Prospective studies are needed for validation.

Benefit From Fractionated Dose-Dense Chemotherapy in Patients With Poor Prognostic Ovarian Cancer: ICON-8 Trial

PURPOSE

An international meta-analysis identified a group of patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) with a very poor survival because of two unfavorable features: (1) a poor chemosensitivity defined by an unfavorable modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) score <1.0 with the online calculator CA-125-Biomarker Kinetics, and (2) an incomplete debulking surgery. We assumed that patients belonging to this poor prognostic group would benefit from a fractionated densified chemotherapy regimen.

METHODS

The data set of ICON-8 phase III trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01654146), where patients with EOC were treated with the standard three-weekly, or the weekly dose-dense, carboplatin-paclitaxel regimens and debulking primary surgery (immediate primary surgery [IPS] or delayed primary [or interval] surgery [DPS]), was investigated. The association between treatment arm efficacy, standardized KELIM (scored as favorable ≥1.0, or unfavorable <1.0), and surgery completeness was assessed by univariate/multivariate analyses in IPS and DPS cohorts.

RESULTS

Of 1,566 enrolled patients, KELIM was calculated with the online model in 1,334 with ≥3 CA-125 available values (85%). As previously reported, both KELIM and surgery completeness were complementary prognostic covariates, and could be combined into three prognostic groups with large OS differences: (1) good if favorable KELIM and complete surgery; (2) intermediate if either unfavorable KELIM or incomplete surgery; and (3) poor if unfavorable KELIM and incomplete surgery. Weekly dose-dense chemotherapy was associated with PFS/OS improvement in the poor prognostic group in both the IPS cohort (PFS: hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.79; OS: HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.95) and the DPS cohort (PFS: HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.76; OS: HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.82).

CONCLUSION

Fractionated dose-dense chemotherapy might be beneficial for patients belonging to the poor prognostic group characterized by lower tumor chemosensitivity assessed with the online calculator CA-125-Biomarker Kinetics and incomplete debulking surgery. Further investigation in the future SALVOVAR trial is warranted.

CA-125 Early Dynamics to Predict Overall Survival in Women with Newly Diagnosed Advanced Ovarian Cancer Based on Meta-Analysis Data

(1) Background: Cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) is a protein produced by ovarian cancer cells that is used for patients' monitoring. However, the best ways to analyze its decline and prognostic role are poorly quantified. (2) Methods: We leveraged individual patient data from the Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) meta-analysis (N = 5573) to compare different approaches summarizing the early trajectory of CA-125 before the prediction time (called the landmark time) at 3 or 6 months after treatment initiation in order to predict overall survival. These summaries included observed and estimated measures obtained by a linear mixed model (LMM). Their performances were evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation with the Brier score and the area under the ROC (AUC). (3) Results: The estimated value and the last observed value at 3 months were the best measures used to predict overall survival, with an AUC of 0.75 CI 95% [0.70; 0.80] at 24 and 36 months and 0.74 [0.69; 0.80] and 0.75 [0.69; 0.80] at 48 months, respectively, considering that CA-125 over 6 months did not improve the AUC, with 0.74 [0.68; 0.78] at 24 months and 0.71 [0.65; 0.76] at 36 and 48 months. (4) Conclusions: A 3-month surveillance provided reliable individual information on overall survival until 48 months for patients receiving first-line chemotherapy.

Mathematical modeling of the early modeled CA-125 longitudinal kinetics (KELIM-PARP) as a pragmatic indicator of rucaparib efficacy in patients with recurrent ovarian carcinoma in ARIEL2 & STUDY 10

BACKGROUND

PARP inhibitors (PARPi) have revolutionized the management of advanced ovarian carcinoma, and were investigated as forefront treatment in recurrent disease. The objective was to explore if mathematical modeling of the early longitudinal CA-125 kinetics could be used as a pragmatic indicator of the subsequent rucaparib efficacy, like it is for platinum-based chemotherapy.

METHODS

The datasets of ARIEL2 and Study 10 involving recurrent HGOC patients treated with rucaparib were retrospectively investigated. The same strategy as those successfully developed for platinum chemotherapy, based on CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM™), was implemented. Individual values of rucaparib-adjusted KELIM (KELIM-PARP) were estimated based on the longitudinal CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 treatment days, and then scored as favorable (KELIM-PARP ≥1.0) or unfavorable (KELIM-PARP <1.0). The prognostic value of KELIM-PARP regarding treatment efficacy (radiological response, and progression-free survival (PFS)) was assessed using univariable/multivariable analyses, with respect to platinum-sensitivity and homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) status.

FINDINGS

The data from 476 patients were assessed. The CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during the first 100-treatment days could be accurately assessed using the KELIM-PARP model. In patients with platinum-sensitive diseases, BRCA mutational status KELIM-PARP score and were associated with subsequent complete/partial radiological responses (KELIM-PARP: odds-ratio = 2.81, 95% CI 1.86-4.52), and PFS (KELIM-PARP: hazard-ratio = 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91). The patients with BRCA-wild type cancer and favorable KELIM-PARP experienced long PFS with rucaparib regardless of HRD. In platinum-resistant disease patients, KELIM-PARP was associated with subsequent radiological response (odds-ratio = 2.80, 95% CI 1.82-4.72).

INTERPRETATION

This proof-of-concept study confirms the early CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during rucaparib in recurrent HGOC patients are assessable by mathematical modeling, to generate individual a KELIM-PARP score associated with the subsequent efficacy. This pragmatic strategy might be useful for selecting the patients for PARPi-based combination regimens, when identifying efficacy biomarker is challenging. Further assessment of this hypothesis is warranted.

FUNDING

The present study was supported by Clovis Oncology with a grant to academic research association.

CA-125 KELIM as a Potential Complementary Tool for Predicting Veliparib Benefit: An Exploratory Analysis From the VELIA/GOG-3005 Study

PURPOSE

In VELIA trial, veliparib combined with carboplatin-paclitaxel, followed by maintenance (veliparib-throughout) was associated with improved progression-free survival (PFS) compared with carboplatin-paclitaxel alone in patients with high-grade ovarian carcinomas. We explored the prognostic value of the modeled cancer antigen (CA)-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM), which is known to be an indicator of the intrinsic tumor chemosensitivity (the faster the rate of CA-125 decline, the higher the KELIM and the higher the chemosensitivity), and its association with benefit from veliparib.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Individual KELIM values were estimated from longitudinal CA-125 kinetics. Patients were categorized as having favorable (≥ median) or unfavorable (< median) KELIM. The prognostic value of KELIM for veliparib-related PFS benefit was explored in cohorts treated with primary or interval debulking surgery, according to the surgery completeness, the disease progression risk group, and the homologous recombination (HR) status (BRCA mutation, HR deficiency [HRD], or HR proficiency [HRP]).

RESULTS

The data from 854 of 1,140 enrolled patients were analyzed (primary debulking surgery, n = 700; interval debulking surgery, n = 154). Increasing KELIM values were associated with higher benefit from veliparib in HRD cancer, as were decreasing KELIM values in HRP cancer. The highest PFS benefit from veliparib was observed in patients with both favorable KELIM and BRCA mutation (hazard ratio, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.61) or BRCA wild-type HRD cancer (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.70), consistent with the association between poly (adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor efficacy and platinum sensitivity. In contrast, seventy-four percent of patients with a BRCA mutation and unfavorable KELIM progressed within 18 months while on veliparib. The patients with HRP cancer and unfavorable KELIM might have benefited from the veliparib chemosensitizing effect.

CONCLUSION

In addition to HRD/BRCA status, the tumor primary chemosensitivity observed during the first-line chemotherapy might be another complementary determinant of poly (adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor efficacy.

Identification of Patients With Ovarian Cancer Experiencing the Highest Benefit From Bevacizumab in the First-Line Setting on the Basis of Their Tumor-Intrinsic Chemosensitivity (KELIM): The GOG-0218 Validation Study

PURPOSE

In patients with high-grade ovarian cancer, predictors of bevacizumab efficacy in first-line setting are needed. In the ICON-7 trial, a poor tumor intrinsic chemosensitivity (defined by unfavorable modeled cancer antigen-125 [CA-125] ELIMination rate constant K [KELIM] score) was a predictive biomarker. Only the patients with high-risk disease (suboptimally resected stage III, or stage IV) exhibiting unfavorable KELIM score < 1.0 had overall survival (OS) benefit from bevacizumab (median: 29.7 v 20.6 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.78). An external validation study in the GOG-0218 trial was performed.

METHODS

In GOG-0218, 1,873 patients were treated with carboplatin-paclitaxel ± concurrent-maintenance bevacizumab/placebo. Patient KELIM values were calculated with CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 chemotherapy days by the Lyon University team. The association between KELIM score (favorable ≥ 1.0, or unfavorable < 1.0) and bevacizumab benefit for progression-free survival (PFS)/OS was independently assessed by NGR-GOG using univariate/multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

KELIM was assessable in 1,662 patients with ≥ 3 CA-125 available values. An unfavorable KELIM score was associated with bevacizumab benefit compared with placebo (PFS: HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.82; OS: HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.03), whereas a favorable KELIM was not (PFS: HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.17; OS: HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.39). The highest benefit was observed in patients with a high-risk disease exhibiting unfavorable KELIM, for PFS (median: 9.1 v 5.6 months; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.78), and for OS (median: 35.1 v 29.1 months; HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.97).

CONCLUSION

This GOG-0218 trial investigation validates ICON-7 findings about the association between poor tumor chemosensitivity and benefit from concurrent-maintenance bevacizumab, suggesting that bevacizumab may mainly be effective in patients with poorly chemosensitive disease. Bevacizumab may be prioritized in patients with a high-risk and poorly chemosensitive disease to improve their PFS/OS (patient KELIM score calculator available on the Biomarker Kinetics website).

State of the Biomarker Science in Ovarian Cancer: A National Cancer Institute Clinical Trials Planning Meeting Report

PURPOSE

Despite therapeutic advances in the treatment of ovarian cancer (OC), 5-year survival remains low, and patients eventually die from recurrent, chemotherapy-resistant disease. The National Cancer Gynecologic Cancer Steering Committee identified the integration of scientifically defined subgroups as a top strategic priority in clinical trial planning.

METHODS

A group of experts was convened to review the scientific literature in OC to identify validated predictive biomarkers that could inform patient selection and treatment stratification. Here, we report on these findings and their potential for use in future clinical trial design on the basis of hierarchal evidence grading.

RESULTS

The biomarkers were classified on the basis of mechanistic targeting, including DNA repair and replication stress, immunotherapy and tumor microenvironment, oncogenic signaling, and angiogenesis. Currently, BRCA mutations and homologous recombination deficiency to predict poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor response are supported in OC by the highest level of evidence. Additional biomarkers of response to agents targeting the pathways above have been identified but require prospective validation.

CONCLUSION

Although a number of biomarkers of response to various agents in OC have been described in the literature, high-level evidence for the majority is lacking. This report highlights the unmet need for identification and validation of predictive biomarkers to guide therapy and future trial design in OC.

Low probability of disease cure in advanced ovarian carcinomas before the PARP inhibitor era

Background

In ovarian carcinomas, the likelihood of disease cure following first-line medical-surgical treatment has been poorly addressed. The objective was to: (a) assess the likelihood of long-term disease-free (LDF) > 5 years; and (b) evaluate the impact of the tumour primary chemosensitivity (assessed with the modelled CA-125 KELIM) with respect to disease stage, and completeness of debulking surgery.

Methods

Three Phase III trial datasets (AGO-OVAR 9; AGO-OVAR 7; ICON-7) were retrospectively investigated in an “adjuvant dataset”, whilst the Netherlands Cancer Registry was used in a “neoadjuvant dataset”. The prognostic values of KELIM, disease stage and surgery outcomes regarding the likelihood of LDF were assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses.

Results

Of 2029 patients in the “adjuvant dataset”, 82 (4.0%) experienced LDF (Stage I–II: 25.9%; III: 2.1%; IV: 0.5%). Multivariate analyses identified disease stage and KELIM (OR = 4.24) as independent prognostic factors. Among the 1452 patients from the “neoadjuvant dataset”, 36 (2.4%) had LDF (Stage II–III: 3.3%; IV: 1.3%). Using multivariate tests, high-risk diseases (OR = 0.18) and KELIM (OR = 2.96) were significant.

Conclusion

The probability of LDF > 5 years after first-line treatment in 3486 patients (<4%) was lower than thought. These data could represent a reference for future studies meant to assess progress related to PARP inhibitors.

Modeled Early Longitudinal PSA Kinetics Prognostic Value in Rising PSA Prostate Cancer Patients after Local Therapy Treated with ADT +/− Docetaxel

Background: In metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) patients, androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with chemotherapy or next-generation androgen receptor targeted agents is a new standard treatment. The objective of the present study is to assess longitudinal PSA kinetics during treatment using mathematical modeling, to identify the modeled PSA kinetic parameters able to exhibit early prognostic/predictive values. Methods: Phase III clinical trial dataset (NCT00764166) comparing ADT +/− docetaxel in 250 locally treated patients for PCa with rising PSA levels, who were at high risk of metastatic disease was assessed. A kinetic-pharmacodynamic (K-PD) model was used to fit PSA kinetics during the first 100 treatment days, to estimate the modeled PSA production rate K (KPROD) and elimination constant rate K (KELIM). The prognostic value of these parameters, considered as categorized (favorable vs. unfavorable) covariates regarding PSA progression-free survival (PSA-PFS) and overall survival (OS), was assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses. Results: Data from 177/250 patients was assessed. KELIM exhibited a significant prognostic value regarding PSA-PFS and KPROD regarding OS (univariate analysis). In the PSA-PFS final multivariate model, KELIM and the primary therapy type were significant. The OS multivariate model integrated both KPROD and baseline PSA doubling-time. Conclusion: In this first study assessing the modeled PSA kinetics prognostic value in PCa patients treated with systemic treatments, KELIM and KPROD exhibited respective prognostic values regarding PSA-PFS and OS.

The Increasing Prognostic and Predictive Roles of the Tumor Primary Chemosensitivity Assessed by CA-125 Elimination Rate Constant K (KELIM) in Ovarian Cancer: A Narrative Review

Ovarian cancer is the gynecological cancer with the worst prognosis and the highest mortality rate because 75% of patients are diagnosed with advanced stage III-IV disease. About 50% of patients are now treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). In that context, there is a need for accurate predictors of tumor primary chemosensitivity, as it may impact the feasibility of subsequent IDS. Across seven studies with more than 12,000 patients, including six large randomized clinical trials and a national cancer registry, along with a mega-analysis database with 5842 patients, the modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM), the calculation of which is based on the longitudinal kinetics during the first three cycles of platinum-based chemotherapy, was shown to be a reproducible indicator of tumor intrinsic chemosensitivity. Indeed, KELIM is strongly associated with the likelihood of complete IDS, subsequent platinum-free interval, progression-free survival, and overall survival, along with the efficacy of maintenance treatment with bevacizumab or veliparib. As a consequence, KELIM might be used to guide more subtly the medical and surgical treatments in a first-line setting. Moreover, it could be used to identify the patients with poorly chemosensitive disease, who will be the best candidates for innovative treatments meant to reverse the chemoresistance, such as cell cycle inhibitors or immunotherapy.

The role of the tumor primary chemosensitivity relative to the success of the medical-surgical management in patients with advanced ovarian carcinomas

In patients with advanced ovarian carcinomas, the first-line treatment has historically relied on debulking surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. If the major therapeutic/prognostic role of the surgery part is well understood, and integrated in disease-management algorithms, the impact of chemotherapy efficacy has been insufficiently addressed. This review describes the main indicators of the chemosensitivity reported in the literature (pathological response score & biomarkers; genomic alterations; DNA scars; imaging; and circulating tumor markers), and investigates the respective roles of the debulking surgery and tumor primary chemosensitivity relative to the success of the comprehensive medical-surgical treatment. The tumor primary chemosensitivity exhibits a major independent prognostic impact on the feasibility of complete interval debulking surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, risk of subsequent platinum-resistant relapse, efficacy of subsequent maintenance therapies with bevacizumab or PARP inhibitors, progression-free survival, overall and long-term survival. While both the completeness of the surgery and the tumor primary chemosensitivity are undoubtedly major prognostic factors, the impact of the surgery may differ according to the primary chemosensitivity. This assumption raises a potential new concept: in patients with advanced ovarian carcinomas, the maximum tumor debulking should ideally be both biological (induced by systemic treatments) and physical (induced by surgery) for maximizing patient survival. Besides BRCA and HRD biomarkers, future trials and algorithms may integrate indicator(s) of the tumor primary chemosensitivity for guiding more subtly the surgical and medical management in first-line setting. Moreover, such a parameter would help in the development of novel approaches meant to reverse the resistance to chemotherapy and PARP inhibitors.

Objective responses to first-line neoadjuvant carboplatin-paclitaxel regimens for ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal carcinoma (ICON8): post-hoc exploratory analysis of a randomised, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Platinum-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by delayed primary surgery (DPS) is an established strategy for women with newly diagnosed, advanced-stage epithelial ovarian cancer. Although this therapeutic approach has been validated in randomised, phase 3 trials, evaluation of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, version 1.1 (RECIST), and cancer antigen 125 (CA125) has not been reported. We describe RECIST and Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup (GCIG) CA125 responses in patients receiving platinum-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by DPS in the ICON8 trial.

METHODS

ICON8 was an international, multicentre, randomised, phase 3 trial done across 117 hospitals in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, South Korea, and Ireland. The trial included women aged 18 years or older with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, life expectancy of more than 12 weeks, and newly diagnosed International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO; 1988) stage IC-IIA high-grade serous, clear cell, or any poorly differentiated or grade 3 histological subtype, or any FIGO (1988) stage IIB-IV epithelial cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneum. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive intravenous carboplatin (area under the curve [AUC]5 or AUC6) and intravenous paclitaxel (175 mg/m2 by body surface area) on day 1 of every 21-day cycle (control group; group 1); intravenous carboplatin (AUC5 or AUC6) on day 1 and intravenous dose-fractionated paclitaxel (80 mg/m2 by body surface area) on days 1, 8, and 15 of every 21-day cycle (group 2); or intravenous dose-fractionated carboplatin (AUC2) and intravenous dose-fractionated paclitaxel (80 mg/m2 by body surface area) on days 1, 8, and 15 of every 21-day cycle (group 3). The maximum number of cycles of chemotherapy permitted was six. Randomisation was done with a minimisation method, and patients were stratified according to GCIG group, disease stage, and timing and outcome of cytoreductive surgery. Patients and clinicians were not masked to group allocation. The scheduling of surgery and use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy were determined by local multidisciplinary case review. In this post-hoc exploratory analysis of ICON8, progression-free survival was analysed using the landmark method and defined as the time interval between the date of pre-surgical planning radiological tumour assessment to the date of investigator-assessed clinical or radiological progression or death, whichever occurred first. This definition is different from the intention-to-treat primary progression-free survival analysis of ICON8, which defined progression-free survival as the time from randomisation to the date of first clinical or radiological progression or death, whichever occurred first. We also compared the extent of surgical cytoreduction with RECIST and GCIG CA125 responses. This post-hoc exploratory analysis includes only women recruited to ICON8 who were planned for neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by DPS and had RECIST and/or GCIG CA125-evaluable disease. ICON8 is closed for enrolment and follow-up, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01654146.

FINDINGS

Between June 6, 2011, and Nov 28, 2014, 1566 women were enrolled in ICON8, of whom 779 (50%) were planned for neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by DPS. Median follow-up was 29·5 months (IQR 15·6-54·3) for the neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by DPS population. Of 564 women who had RECIST-evaluable disease at trial entry, 348 (62%) had a complete or partial response. Of 727 women who were evaluable by GCIG CA125 criteria at the time of diagnosis, 610 (84%) had a CA125 response. Median progression-free survival was 14·4 months (95% CI 9·2-28·0; 297 events) for patients with a RECIST complete or partial response and 13·3 months (8·1-20·1; 171 events) for those with RECIST stable disease. Median progression-free survival for women with a GCIG CA125 response was 13·8 months (95% CI 8·8-23·4; 544 events) and 9·7 months (5·8-14·5; 111 events) for those without a GCIG CA125 response. Complete cytoreduction (R0) was achieved in 187 (56%) of 335 women with a RECIST complete or partial response and 73 (42%) of 172 women with RECIST stable disease. Complete cytoreduction was achieved in 290 (50%) of 576 women with a GCIG CA125 response and 30 (30%) of 101 women without a GCIG CA125 response.

INTERPRETATION

The RECIST-defined radiological response rate was lower than that frequently quoted to patients in the clinic. RECIST and GCIG CA125 responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for epithelial ovarian cancer should not be used as individual predictive markers to stratify patients who are likely to benefit from DPS, but instead used in conjunction with the patient's clinical capacity to undergo cytoreductive surgery. A patient should not be denied surgery based solely on the lack of a RECIST or GCIG CA125 response.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, Health Research Board in Ireland, Irish Cancer Society, and Cancer Australia.

Prognostic Significance of CA125 Dynamic Change for Progression Free Survival in Patients with Epithelial Ovarian Carcinoma

Background

This study aimed to investigate the value of CA125 dynamic change in PFS prediction for patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC).

Material/Methods

Data analysis was performed using SPSS 24.0 statistical software with progression-free survival (PFS) as an outcome measure. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the relationship between PFS and preoperative and postoperative NLR, PLR and CA125 levels, CA125 half-life, CA125-negative time, age, FIGO stage, histopathology, differentiation, vessel carcinoma embolus, and ascites. The survival curves were compared by the log-rank test. Based on the results of single-factor analysis, the Cox model was used for multifactor analysis to analyze independent risk factors affecting the PFS of epithelial ovarian carcinoma.

Results

A total of 117 patients with EOC were selected from January 2012 to January 2019 to carry out a retrospective study. Univariate analyses showed that PFS of the patients with EOC was associated with differentiation, vessel carcinoma embolus, FIGO stage, CA125 half-life, CA12-negative time, and preoperative NLR (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis by the Cox model showed that vessel carcinoma embolus, CA125 half-life, differentiation, and preoperative NLR are the independent risk factors for PFS in patients with EOC.

Conclusions

The serum CA125 dynamic as reflected by CA125 half-life is the most important independent prognostic factor in patients with EOC. The simplicity of CA125 monitoring and its correlation with EOC patient survival can identify patients with poor prognosis through monitoring CA125 half-life, which can provide a reference value for use in clinical practice.

Analysing the nanoparticle-protein corona for potential molecular target identification

When nanoparticles are introduced into biological systems, host proteins tend to associate on the particle surface to form a protein layer termed the "protein corona" (PC). Identifying the proteins that constitute the PC can yield useful information about nanoparticle processing, bio-distribution, toxicity and clearance. Similarly, characterizing and identifying proteins within the PC from patient samples provides opportunities to probe disease proteomes and identify molecules that influence the disease process. Thus, nanoparticles represent unique probing tools for discovery of molecular targets for diseases. Here, we report a first review on target identification using nanoparticles in biological samples based on analysing physico chemical interactions. We also summarize the evolution of the PC surrounding various nano-systems, comment on PC signature, address PC complexity in fluids, and outline challenges associated with analysing the PC. In addition, the influence on PC formation of various nanoparticle parameters is summarized; nanoparticle characteristics considered include size, charge, temperature, and surface modifications for both organic and inorganic nanomaterials. We also discuss the advantages of nanotechnology, over other more invasive and laborious methods, for identifying potential diagnostic and therapeutic targets.

Bevacizumab for Newly Diagnosed Ovarian Cancers: Best Candidates Among High-Risk Disease Patients (ICON-7)

Bevacizumab is approved as a maintenance treatment in first-line setting in advanced-stage III-IV ovarian cancers, because GOG-0218 and ICON-7 phase III trials demonstrated progression-free survival benefits. However, only the subgroup of patients with high-risk diseases (stage IV, and incompletely resected stage III) derived an overall survival (OS) gain in the ICON-7 trial (4.8 months). The modeled CA-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM) parameter, based on the longitudinal CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 days of chemotherapy, is a potential indicator of the tumor primary chemo-sensitivity. In the ICON-7 trial dataset, the OS of patients within the low- and high-risk disease groups was assessed according to treatment arms and KELIM. Among the patients with high-risk diseases, those with favorable standardized KELIM of at least 1.0 (n = 214, 46.7%) had no survival benefit from bevacizumab, whereas those with unfavorable KELIM less than 1.0 (n = 244, 53.2%) derived the highest OS benefit (absolute difference = 9.1 months, 2-sided log-rank P = .10; Cox hazard ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.58 to 1.04, 2-sided P = .09).

Time to CA19-9 nadir: a clue for defining optimal treatment duration in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Defining optimal treatment duration in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) receiving primary chemotherapy is an unmet need. The role of time to CA19-9 nadir and of nadir magnitude was explored in this study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The databases of our institution's prospective trials were queried to speculate on the time to maximum chemotherapy response. Patients with pathologically proven, metastatic (N = 356) or non-metastatic non-resected (N = 163) PDAC and elevated baseline (> 34 UI/mL) CA19-9 were analyzed. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by means of the log-rank test for analyses including at least 45 patients. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate clinical features for their association with OS. All probability values were from two-sided tests.

RESULTS

Time to CA19-9 nadir was ≥ 4 months in 184 of 346 (53%) metastatic and 121 of 163 (74%) non-metastatic patients (p = 0.002). The likelihood of a later nadir was higher with taxane-based chemotherapy as compared to taxane-free combinations (73% versus 56%; p = 0.02). Both metastatic and non-metastatic patients had significantly longer survival when nadir occurred later. Patients with a larger CA19-9 nadir magnitude had significantly longer survival. Metastatic patients with CA19-9 reduced by < 50%, 50-89%, or > 89% and had a median survival of 7.4, 9.8, and 14.7 months, respectively (p ≤ 0.001 for all comparisons). The corresponding figures for non-metastatic patients were 10.6; 17.0; and 18.7 months, respectively (p ≤ 0.02 for < 50% versus 50-89% or > 89%; p = 0.14 for 50-89% versus > 89%). Multivariable analyses showed that time to CA19-9 nadir but not CA19-9 nadir magnitude was independently predictive of survival.

CONCLUSION

The present study suggests that a 4-6 months program might be a more suitable candidate for prospective assessment in comparison to shorter pre-defined period in patients who are candidates to surgery after primary chemotherapy.

CA-125 ELIMination Rate Constant K (KELIM) Is a Marker of Chemosensitivity in Patients with Ovarian Cancer: Results from the Phase II CHIVA Trial

PURPOSE

In patients with ovarian cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the first-line treatment success will depend on both the tumor-primary chemosensitivity and the completeness of interval debulking surgery (IDS). The modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM), calculated with the CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during the first 100 chemotherapy days, is a validated early marker of tumor chemosensitivity. The objective was to investigate the role of the chemosensitivity relative to the success of first-line medical-surgical treatment.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

The CA-125 concentrations were prospectively measured in the randomized phase II trial CHIVA (NCT01583322, carboplatin-paclitaxel regimen ± nintedanib, and IDS, n = 188 patients). The KELIM predictive value regarding the tumor response rate, likelihood of complete IDS, risk of subsequent platinum-resistant relapse (PtRR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariate and multivariate tests.

RESULTS

The data from 134 patients were analyzed. KELIM was an independent and major predictor of subsequent PtRR risk, and of survivals. The final logistic regression model, including KELIM [OR = 0.13; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-0.49] and complete IDS (no vs. yes, OR = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.11-0.76) highlights the preponderant role of chemosensitivity on the success of the first-line treatment. In patients with highly chemosensitive diseases, the patient prognosis was driven more by the chemotherapy-induced antitumor effects than by the surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

The tumor-primary chemosensitivity, assessed by the modeled CA-125 KELIM calculated during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (http://www.biomarker-kinetics.org/CA-125-neo), may be a major parameter to consider for decision-making regarding IDS attempt, and selecting patients for treatments meant to reverse the primary chemoresistance.See related commentary by May and Oza, p. 4432.

Progress and Opportunities to Advance Clinical Cancer Therapeutics Using Tumor Dynamic Models

There is a need for new approaches and endpoints in oncology drug development, particularly with the advent of immunotherapies and the multiple drug combinations under investigation. Tumor dynamics modeling, a key component to oncology "model-informed drug development," has shown a growing number of applications and a broader adoption by drug developers and regulatory agencies in the past years to support drug development and approval in a variety of ways. Tumor dynamics modeling is also being investigated in personalized cancer therapy approaches. These models and applications are reviewed and discussed, as well as the limitations and issues open for further investigations. A close collaboration between stakeholders like clinical investigators, statisticians, and pharmacometricians is warranted to advance clinical cancer therapeutics.

Cancer Clinical Investigators Should Converge with Pharmacometricians

The applied quantitative science pharmacometrics has significantly enhanced cancer therapeutics development. Pharmacometrics is now improving our understanding of complex diagnostics. Through the concept of convergence and methods of quantitative and systems pharmacology, pharmacometrics is poised to interconnect mathematical models of disease and therapy to advance cancer care.See related article by Colomban et al., p. 5342.