Stroke-related mortality analysis in Paraná, Brazil, over 10 years

BACKGROUND

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability around the world.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the age- and sex-specific mortality rates related to stroke in the state of Paraná, Brazil, between 2007 and 2016.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, residents in the state of Paraná were selected by death certificates (from 2007-2016); the basic cause of death was stroke. A descriptive analysis was performed, and mortality rates were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for each year.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2016, there were 62,607 deaths in the state of Paraná due to stroke. Most individuals had medical assistance before death (85.7% in 2007 versus 83.9% in 2016), and most of these deaths occurred in hospitals (73.6% in 2007 versus 74.8% in 2016). Death rates due to stroke increased from 138 (95% CI 135-142) to 163 (95% CI 159-166) per 100,000 inhabitants. This raise occurred mainly in those over 79 years old. For the ages groups of 34 to 44 and 44 to 54 years, mortality rate decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past 15 years, despite the advances in the diagnosis and treatment of stroke, there has been an increase in mortality due to stroke in the state of Paraná. This fact is possibly associated with the aging of the population because there was a more pronounced increase in the group over 79 years old. Thus, new health strategies are necessary to improve the survival and quality of life of poststroke individuals.

Multimorbidities Are Associated to Lower Survival in Ischaemic Stroke: Results from a Brazilian Stroke Cohort (EMMA Study)

BACKGROUND

Stroke prognosis is related to the multimorbidity profile. Moreover, performing an individual evaluation of most common cerebrovascular risk factors (CVRF) not always identifies patients with poor prognosis. Thus, we decided to evaluate multimorbidity profile, focusing on the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) validated by Goldstein for ischaemic stroke (IS) patients, a score that measures a burden of comorbidities and its related mortality in the long-term survival of the EMMA Study (Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity).

METHODS

Nine hundred fifty-nine individuals (median age 70 years) had validated data on the diagnosis of IS, main CVRF and clinical comorbidities pre index event such as atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke recurrence, diabetes, hypertension, heart failure and cancer. CCI modified by Goldstein was calculated, which includes 17 clinical conditions with scores ranging from 1 to 6 (0-31 points). Survival analyses were performed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox logistic regression models (cumulative hazard ratio [HR] with [95% CI]) for all-cause mortality at 180 days, and every 3 years up to 9-year follow-up. Mortality analyzes were performed by CCI categorized according to weight added to comorbidities (Reference group: zero, moderate: 1, severe: 2 and very severe: ≥3 points). We also tested the modification effect of AF and stroke recurrence including these conditions in the CCI.

RESULTS

The overall survival rate was 47% (508 deaths/959). The worst survival (577, 95% CI 381-773 days) and the highest risk of death after stroke were observed in the very severe CCI group (HR 3.18; 95% CI 2.16-4.69) up to 9 years. The inclusion of previous AF and stroke in the CCI slightly increased the risk of death for very severe CCI (HR 3.27; 95% CI 2.07-5.18).

CONCLUSIONS

A high burden of comorbidities represented an independent predictor of poor prognosis increasing the risk of dying by 2 to 3 times among IS up to 9 years in the EMMA study. The inclusion of other CVRF such as AF and stroke recurrence slightly modified all-cause mortality risk.