Trajectories of Oral Anticoagulation Adherence Among Medicare Beneficiaries Newly Diagnosed With Atrial Fibrillation

COVID-19 pandemic and trends in clinical outcomes and medication use for patients with established atrial fibrillation: A nationwide analysis of claims data

Study objective

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted multiple aspects of the health care system, including the diagnosis and control of chronic conditions. This study aimed to quantify pandemic-related changes in the rates of clinical events among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Design/setting/participants

In this retrospective cohort study, we identified individuals with established AF at any time before 2019 using de-identified Optum's Clinformatics® Data Mart, and followed them from 3/18/2019 to death, or disenrollment, or the end of the study (09/30/2021).

Main outcome

Rates of clinical event, including all-cause hospitalization, ischemic stroke, and bleeding. We constructed interrupted time series to test changes in outcomes after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (3/11/2020, date of pandemic declaration). We then identified the first month after the start of the pandemic in which outcomes returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Results

A total of 561,758 patients, with a mean age of 77 ± 9.9 years, were included in the study. The monthly incidence rate of all-cause hospitalization decreased from 2.8 % in the period immediately before the pandemic declaration to 1.7 % in the period immediately after, with p-value for level change<0.001. The rate of new ischemic stroke diagnoses decreased from 0.28 % in the period immediately before pandemic declaration to 0.20 % in the period immediately after, and the rate of major bleeding diagnoses from 0.81 % to 0.59 %, both p-values for level change<0.01. The incidence rate of ischemic stroke and bleeding events returned to pre-pandemic levels in October and November 2020, respectively.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decrease in health care visits for ischemic stroke and bleeding in a nationwide cohort of patients with established AF.

Predictors of adherence to direct oral anticoagulants after cardiovascular or bleeding events in Medicare Advantage Plan enrollees with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are recommended for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) given their improved safety profile. Suboptimal adherence to DOACs remains a significant concern among individuals with AF. However, the extent of adherence to DOACs following a cardiovascular or bleeding event has not been fully evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the pattern of adherence trajectories of DOACs after a cardiovascular or bleeding event and to investigate the sociodemographic and clinical predictors associated with each adherence trajectory by using claims-based data.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted among patients with AF prescribed with DOACs (dabigatran/apixaban/rivaroxaban) between July 2016 and December 2017 and who were continuously enrolled in the Texas-based Medicare Advantage Plan. Patients who experienced a cardiovascular or bleeding event while using the DOACs were further included in the analysis. The sample was limited to patients who experienced a clinical event such as a cardiovascular or bleeding event while using the DOACs. The clinical events considered in this study were cardiovascular (stroke, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, systemic embolism) and bleeding events. To assess adherence patterns, each patient with a DOAC prescription was followed up for a year after experiencing a clinical event. The monthly adherence to DOACs after these events was evaluated using the proportion of days covered (PDC). A group-based trajectory model incorporated the monthly PDC to classify groups of patients based on their distinct patterns of adherence. Predictors associated with each trajectory were assessed using a multinomial logistic regression model, with the adherent trajectory serving as the reference group in the outcome variable.

RESULTS

Among the 694 patients with AF who experienced clinical events after the initiation of DOACs, 3 distinct adherence trajectories were identified: intermediate nonadherent (30.50%), adherent (37.7%), and low adherent (31.8%); the mean PDC was 0.47 for the intermediate nonadherent trajectory, 0.93 for the adherent trajectory, and 0.01 for low adherent trajectory. The low-income subsidy was significantly associated with lower adherence trajectories (odds ratio [OR] = 4.81; 95% CI = 3.07-7.51) and with intermediate nonadherent trajectories (OR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.06-2.34). Also, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use was significantly associated with lower adherence trajectories (OR = 5.10; 95% CI = 1.95-13.36) and intermediate nonadherent trajectories (OR = 3.17; 95% CI = 1.26-7.93). Other predictors significantly associated with both nonadherent trajectories are type of DOACs (OR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35-0.79), presence of coronary artery disease (OR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.01-3.55), and having 2 or more clinical events (OR = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.09-2.50).

CONCLUSIONS

Predictors identified provide valuable insights into the suboptimal adherence of DOACs among Medicare Advantage Plan enrollees with AF, which can guide the development of targeted interventions to enhance adherence in this high-risk patient population.

Opioid therapy trajectories of patients with chronic non-cancer pain over 1 year of follow-up after initiation of short-acting opioid formulations

OBJECTIVE

This study compared opioid utilization trajectories of persons initiating tramadol, short-acting hydrocodone, or short-acting oxycodone, and it characterized opioid dose trajectories and type of opioid in persistent opioid therapy subsamples.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of adults with chronic non-cancer pain who were initiating opioid therapy was conducted with the IQVIA PharMetrics® Plus for Academics data (2008-2018). Continuous enrollment was required for 6 months before ("baseline") and 12 months after ("follow-up") the first opioid prescription ("index date"). Opioid therapy measures were assessed every 7 days over follow-up. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify trajectories for any opioid and total morphine milligram equivalent measures, and longitudinal latent class analysis was used for opioid therapy type.

RESULTS

A total of 40 276 tramadol, 141 023 hydrocodone, and 45 221 oxycodone initiators were included. GBTM on any opioid therapy identified 3 latent trajectories: early discontinuers (tramadol 39.0%, hydrocodone 54.1%, oxycodone 61.4%), late discontinuers (tramadol 37.9%, hydrocodone 39.4%, oxycodone 33.3%), and persistent therapy (tramadol 6.7%, hydrocodone 6.5%, oxycodone 5.3%). An additional fourth trajectory, intermittent therapy (tramadol 16.4%), was identified for tramadol initiators. Of those on persistent therapy, 2687 individuals were on persistent therapy with tramadol, 9169 with hydrocodone, and 2377 with oxycodone. GBTM on opioid dose resulted in 6 similar trajectory groups in each persistent therapy group. Longitudinal latent class analysis on opioid therapy type identified 6 latent classes for tramadol and oxycodone and 7 classes for hydrocodone.

CONCLUSION

Opioid therapy patterns meaningfully differed by the initial opioid prescribed, notably the presence of intermittent therapy among tramadol initiators and higher morphine milligram equivalents and prescribing of long-acting opioids among oxycodone initiators.

Evaluating the effect of inequalities in oral anti-coagulant prescribing on outcomes in people with atrial fibrillation

Aims

Whilst anti-coagulation is typically recommended for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation (AF), it is often never prescribed or prematurely discontinued. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of inequalities in anti-coagulant prescribing by assessing stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding risk in people with AF who continue anti-coagulation compared with those who stop transiently, permanently, or never start.

Methods and results

This retrospective cohort study utilized linked Scottish healthcare data to identify adults diagnosed with AF between January 2010 and April 2016, with a CHA2DS2-VASC score of ≥2. They were sub-categorized based on anti-coagulant exposure: never started, continuous, discontinuous, and cessation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression and competing risk regression was utilized to compare SSE and bleeding risks between cohorts during 5-year follow-up. Of an overall cohort of 47 427 people, 26 277 (55.41%) were never anti-coagulated, 7934 (16.72%) received continuous anti-coagulation, 9107 (19.2%) temporarily discontinued, and 4109 (8.66%) permanently discontinued. Lower socio-economic status, elevated frailty score, and age ≥ 75 were associated with a reduced likelihood of initiation and continuation of anti-coagulation. Stroke/systemic embolism risk was significantly greater in those with discontinuous anti-coagulation, compared with continuous [subhazard ratio (SHR): 2.65; 2.39-2.94]. In the context of a major bleeding event, there was no significant difference in bleeding risk between the cessation and continuous cohorts (SHR 0.94; 0.42-2.14).

Conclusion

Our data suggest significant inequalities in anti-coagulation prescribing, with substantial opportunity to improve initiation and continuation. Decision-making should be patient-centred and must recognize that discontinuation or cessation is associated with considerable thromboembolic risk not offset by mitigated bleeding risk.

Delayed treatment initiation of oral anticoagulants among Medicare patients with atrial fibrillation

Study objective

This study aimed to identify factors associated with delayed oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment initiation among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in United States (US) clinical practice.

Participants

Medicare beneficiaries newly diagnosed with AF without moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis or a mechanical heart valve, were aged ≥65 years and prescribed OAC on or after 10/1/2015 through 2019 were included. Delayed and early OAC initiation were defined as >3 months and 0-3 months initiation from first AF diagnosis, respectively.

Main outcome measures

Association between delayed OAC initiation and patient demographics, clinical and index OAC coverage and formulary characteristics was examined using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

A total of 446,441 patients met the inclusion criteria; 30.0 % (N = 131,969) were identified as delayed and 70.0 % (N = 314,472) as early OAC initiation. Median age for both cohorts was 78 years. In the early and delayed OAC cohorts, 47.1 % and 47.6 % were male and 88.8 % and 86.6 %, were White, respectively. Factors associated with delayed OAC initiation (odds ratio; 95 % confidence interval) included Black race (1.29; 1.25 to 1.33), west region (1.29; 1.26 to 1.32), comorbidities such as dementia (1.27; 1.23 to 1.30), recent bleeding hospitalization (1.22; 1.18 to 1.27), prior authorization (1.69; 1.66 to 1.71), tier 4 formulary for index OAC at AF diagnosis (1.26; 1.22 to 1.30).

Conclusion

Our study revealed that nearly one-third of Medicare patients with AF experienced delayed OAC initiation. Key patient characteristics found to be associated with delayed OAC initiation included race and ethnicity, comorbidities, and formulary restrictions.

Trajectories of P2Y12 inhibitor adherence in patients with acute coronary syndromes

PURPOSE

P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i) reduce cardiac events after acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, suboptimal P2Y12i adherence persists. We aimed to examine P2Y12i non-adherence using group-based trajectory methods and to identify adherence predictors.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study using administrative data in Ontario, Canada of patients ≥65 years admitted for ACS between April 2014 and March 2018 with a P2Y12i dispensed within 7 days of discharge. We used group-based trajectory models to characterize longitudinal 1-year adherence patterns. Predictors associated with each adherence trajectory were identified by multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

We included 11 917 patients using clopidogrel and 9763 using ticagrelor, aged [mean ± SD]: 77.33 ± 8.31/73.59 ± 6.79 years; men: 56.2%/65.4%, respectively. We identified 3 longitudinal adherence trajectories, that differed by agent: 75% of clopidogrel and 68% of ticagrelor patients showed a consistently adherent trajectory, while 13%/17% were gradually, and 12%/15% were rapidly non-adherent, respectively (p < 0.001). Differing baseline characteristics in each cohort were associated with observed adherence trajectories. Concomitant atrial fibrillation and prior bleeding history were associated with non-adherence among clopidogrel users. Among ticagrelor users, women and older persons were more likely to be rapidly non-adherent, adherence declining steeply starting 1 month post-ACS.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified distinct adherence trajectories for clopidogrel and ticagrelor post-ACS, with 3 out of 4 clopidogrel patients but only 2 out of 3 ticagrelor patients in the consistently adherent trajectory. Intensive interventions targeted to the period of steep adherence decline post-ACS, particularly for women and older persons initiating ticagrelor, and patients with atrial fibrillation on clopidogrel should be considered and investigated further.

Medication adherence trajectory of patients with chronic diseases and its influencing factors: A systematic review

AIMS

To synthesize the published studies on medication adherence trajectories among patients with chronic diseases and identify the influencing factors.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline (Ovid), Embase (Ovid) and Web of Science core collection were searched from database inception to 1 July 2022.

REVIEW METHODS

Potentially eligible articles were independently screened by three reviewers using set inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for cohort studies was used to appraise the quality of the included articles. Three reviewers independently evaluated the quality, extracted data and resolved differences by consensus. Results were presented using descriptive synthesis, and the prevalence of recategorised medication adherence trajectories was calculated from the published data.

RESULTS

Fifty studies were included. Medication adherence trajectories among patients with chronic diseases were synthesized into six categories: adherence, non-adherence, decreasing adherence, increasing adherence, fluctuating adherence and moderate adherence. Low and moderate evidence showed that (1) patient-related factors, including age, sex, race, marital status and mental status; (2) healthcare team and system-related factors, including healthcare utilization, insurance and primary prescriber specialty; (3) socioeconomic factors including education, income and employment status; (4) condition-related factors including complications and comorbidities and (5) therapy-related factors including the number of medications, use of other medications, and prior medication adherence behaviours were factors influencing the medication adherence trajectory. Marital status and prior medication adherence behaviour were the only influencing factors with moderate evidence of an effect.

CONCLUSION

The medication adherence trajectory among patients with chronic diseases varied widely. Further studies are warranted to determine contributory factors.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION

Healthcare providers should be aware that patients' medication adherence has different trajectories and should take appropriate measures to improve patients' medication adherence patterns.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

None. As a systematic review, patients and the public were not involved.

COVID-19 pandemic and initiation of treatment for atrial fibrillation: a nationwide analysis of claims data

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted the delivery of medical care. It remains unclear whether individuals diagnosed with new onset disease during the pandemic were less likely to initiate treatments after diagnosis. We sought to evaluate changes in the treatment initiation of patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we identified individuals with incident AF from 01/01/2016-09/30/2021 using Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database. The primary outcome was initiation of oral anticoagulation (OAC) within 30 days of AF diagnosis. Secondary outcomes included initiation of OAC within 180 days of diagnosis, initiation of warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), rhythm control medications and electrical cardioversion within 30 days of diagnosis. We constructed interrupted time series analyses to examine changes in the outcomes following the onset of the pandemic.

RESULTS

A total of 573,524 patients (age 73.0 ± 10.9 years) were included in the study. There were no significant changes in the initiation of OAC, DOAC, and rhythm control medications associated with the onset of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in initiation of electrical cardioversion associated with the onset of the pandemic. The rate of electronic cardioversion within 30 days of diagnosis decreased by 4.9% per 1,000 patients after the onset of the pandemic and decreased by about 35% in April 2020, compared to April 2019, from 5.53% to 3.58%.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the OAC initiation within 30 days of AF diagnosis but was associated with a decline in the provision of procedures for patients newly diagnosed with AF.

Gaps in guideline-recommended anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation and elevated thromboembolic risk within an integrated healthcare delivery system

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is the leading cause of stroke, which can be reduced by 70% with appropriate oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy. Nationally, appropriate anticoagulation rates for patients with AF with elevated thromboembolic risk are as low as 50% even across the highest stroke risk cohorts. This study aims to evaluate the variability of appropriate anticoagulation rates among patients by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status within the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (KPMAS).

METHODS

This retrospective study investigated 9513 patients in KPMAS's AF registry with CHADS2 score ≥ 2 over a 6-month period in 2021.

RESULTS

Appropriately anticoagulated patients had higher rates of diabetes, prior stroke, and congestive heart failure than patients who were not appropriately anticoagulated. There were no significant differences in anticoagulation rates between males and females (71.8% vs. 71.6%%, [OR] 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.11; P = .76) nor by SES-SVI quartiles. There was a statistically significant difference between Black and White patients (70.8% vs. 73.1%, P = .03) and Asian and White patients (68.3% vs. 71.6%, P = .005). After adjusting for CHADS2, this difference persisted for Black and White participants with CHADS2 scores of ≤3 (62.6% vs. 70.6%, P < .001) and for Asian and White participants with CHADS2 scores > 5 (68.0% vs. 79.3%, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Black and Asian patients may have differing rates of appropriate anticoagulation when compared with White patients. Characterizing such disparities is the first step towards addressing treatment gaps in AF.

Longitudinal Trajectory Modeling to Assess Adherence to Sacubitril/Valsartan among Patients with Heart Failure

Medication adherence in chronic conditions is a long-term process. Modeling longitudinal trajectories using routinely collected prescription data is a promising method for describing adherence patterns and identifying at-risk groups. The study aimed to characterize distinct long-term sacubitril/valsartan adherence trajectories and factors associated with them in patients with heart failure (HF). Subjects with incident HF starting sac/val in 2017-2018 were identified from the Campania Regional Database for Medication Consumption. We estimated patients' continuous medication availability (CMA9; R package AdhereR) during a 12-month period. We selected groups with similar CMA9 trajectories (Calinski-Harabasz criterion; R package kml). We performed multinomial regression analysis, assessing the relationship between demographic and clinical factors and adherence trajectory groups. The cohort included 4455 subjects, 70% male. Group-based trajectory modeling identified four distinct adherence trajectories: high adherence (42.6% of subjects; CMA mean 0.91 ± 0.08), partial drop-off (19.6%; CMA 0.63 ± 0.13), moderate adherence (19.3%; CMA 0.54 ± 0.11), and low adherence (18.4%; CMA 0.17 ± 0.12). Polypharmacy was associated with partial drop-off adherence (OR 1.194, 95%CI 1.175-1.214), while the occurrence of ≥1 HF hospitalization (OR 1.165, 95%CI 1.151-1.179) or other hospitalizations (OR 1.481, 95%CI 1.459-1.503) were associated with low adherence. This study found that tailoring patient education, providing support, and ongoing monitoring can boost adherence within different groups, potentially improving health outcomes.

Individual and social determinants of adherence to sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor therapy: A trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are known to improve cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Understanding the longitudinal patterns of adherence and the associated predictors is critical to addressing the suboptimal use of this outcome-improving treatment. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the distinct trajectories of adherence to SGLT2is in patients with T2D and to identify patient characteristics and social determinants of health (SDOHs) associated with SGLT2i adherence. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients with T2D who initiated and filled at least 1 SGLT2i prescription according to 2012-2016 national Medicare claims data. The monthly proportion of days covered with SGLT2is for each patient was incorporated into group-based trajectory models to identify groups with similar adherence patterns. A multinomial logistic regression model was constructed to examine the association between patient characteristics and group membership. In addition, the association between context-specific SDOHs (eg, neighborhood median income and neighborhood employment rate) and adherence to an SGLT2i regimen was explored in both the overall cohort and the racial and ethnic subgroups. RESULTS: The final sample comprised 6,719 patients with T2D. Four trajectories of SGLT2i adherence were identified: continuously adherent users (49.6%), early discontinuers (27.5%), late discontinuers (14.5%), and intermediately adherent users (8.4%). Patient age, sex, race, diabetes duration, and Medicaid eligibility were significantly associated with trajectory group membership. Areas with a higher unemployment rate, lower income level, lower high school education rate, worse nutrition environment, fewer health care facilities, and greater Area Deprivation Index scores were found to be associated with low adherence to SGLT2is. CONCLUSIONS: Four distinct trajectories of adherence to SGLT2is were identified, with only half of the patients remaining continuously adherent to their treatment regimen during the first year after initiation. Several contextual SDOHs were associated with suboptimal adherence to SGLT2is.

Unintended Consequences of Increased Out-of-Pocket Costs During Medicare Coverage Gap on Anticoagulant Discontinuation and Stroke

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to assess the risk of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) discontinuation among Medicare beneficiaries with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who reach the Medicare coverage gap stratified by low-income subsidy (LIS) status and the impact of DOAC discontinuation on rates of stroke and systemic embolism (SE) among beneficiaries with increased out-of-pocket (OOP) costs due to not receiving LIS.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, Medicare claims data (2015-2020) were used to identify beneficiaries with NVAF who initiated rivaroxaban or apixaban and entered the coverage gap during ≥ 1 year. DOAC discontinuation rates during the coverage gap were stratified by receipt of Medicare Part D Low-Income Subsidy (LIS), a proxy for not experiencing increased OOP costs. Among non-LIS beneficiaries, incidence rates of stroke and SE during the subsequent 12 months were compared between beneficiaries who did and did not discontinue DOAC in the coverage gap.

RESULTS

Among 303,695 beneficiaries, mean age was 77.3 years, and 28% received LIS. After adjusting for baseline differences, non-LIS beneficiaries (N = 218,838) had 78% higher risk of discontinuing DOAC during the coverage gap vs. LIS recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.78; 95% CI [1.73, 1.82]). Among non-LIS beneficiaries, DOAC discontinuation during coverage gap (N = 91,397; 34%) was associated with 14% higher risk of experiencing stroke and SE during the subsequent 12 months (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI [1.08, 1.20]).

CONCLUSION

Increased OOP costs during Medicare coverage gap were associated with higher risk of DOAC discontinuation, which in turn was associated with higher risk of stroke and SE among beneficiaries with NVAF.

Medication non-adherence patterns and profiles for patients with incident myocardial infarction: Observations from a large multi-morbid US population

BACKGROUND

Consistent adherence levels to multiple long-term medications for patients with cardiovascular conditions are typically advocated in the range of 50% or higher, although very likely to be much lower in some populations. We investigated this issue in a large cohort covering a broad age and geographical spectrum, with a wide range of socio-economic disability status.

METHODS

The patients were drawn from three different health plans with a varied mix of socio-economic/disability levels. Adherence patterns were examined on a monthly basis for up to 12 months past the index date for myocardial infarction (MI) using longitudinal analyses of group-based trajectory modelling. Each of the non-adherent patterns was profiled from comorbid history, demographic and health plan factors using main effect logistic regression modelling. Four medication classes were examined for MI: betablockers, statin, ACE inhibitors and anti-platelets.

RESULTS

The participant population for the MI/non-MI cohorts was 1,987,605 (MI cohort: mean age 62 years, 45.9% female; non-MI cohort: mean age 45 years, 55.3% females). Cohorts characterized by medication non-adherence dominated the majority of MI population with values ranging from 74% to 82%. There were four types of consistent non-adherence patterns as a function of time for each medication class: fast decline, slow decline, occasional users and early gap followed by increased adherence. The characteristics of non-adherence profiles eligible for improvement included patients with a prior history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and stroke as co-morbidities, and Medicare plan.

CONCLUSIONS

We found consistent patterns of intermediate non-adherence for each of four drug classes for MI cohorts in the order of 56% who are eligible for interventions aimed at improving cardiovascular medication adherence levels. These insights may help improve cardiovascular medication adherence using large medication non-adherence improvement programs.

COVID-19 pandemic and trends in new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation: A nationwide analysis of claims data

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a five-fold increased risk of stroke and a two-fold increased risk of death. We aimed to quantify changes in new diagnoses of AF following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investigating changes in new diagnoses of AF is of relevance because delayed diagnosis interferes with timely treatment to prevent stroke, heart failure, and death.

METHODS

Using De-identified Optum's Clinformatics® Data Mart, we identified 19,500,401 beneficiaries continuously enrolled for 12 months in 2016-Q3 2020 with no history of AF. The primary outcome was new AF diagnoses per 30-day interval. Secondary outcomes included AF diagnosis in the inpatient setting, AF diagnosis in the outpatient setting, and ischemic stroke as initial manifestation of AF. We constructed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models to quantify changes in new AF diagnoses after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (3/11/2020, date of pandemic declaration). We tested whether changes in the new AF diagnoses differed by race and ethnicity.

RESULTS

The average age of study participants was 51.0±18.5 years, and 52% of the sample was female. During the study period, 2.7% of the study sample had newly-diagnosed AF. New AF diagnoses decreased by 35% (95% CI, 21%-48%) after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, from 1.14 per 1000 individuals (95% CI, 1.05-1.24) to 0.74 per 1000 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.83, p-value<0.001). New AF diagnoses decreased by 37% (95% CI, 13%- 55%) in the outpatient setting and by 29% (95% CI, 14%-43%) in the inpatient setting. The decrease in new AF diagnoses was similar across racial and ethnic subgroups.

CONCLUSION

In a nationwide cohort of 19.5 million individuals, new diagnoses of AF decreased substantially following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings evidence pandemic disruptions in access to care for AF, which are concerning because delayed diagnosis interferes with timely treatment to prevent complications.

Self-reported adherence to direct oral anticoagulants versus warfarin therapy in a specialized thrombosis service-a cross-sectional study of patients in a Canadian Health Region

PURPOSE

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have a better safety and efficacy profile than warfarin and are currently recommended for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Given that DOACs do not require regular laboratory monitoring compared to warfarin, patients' interactions with the health care system is reduced. Adequate adherence to DOACs is important and reported adherence to anticoagulation is unclear in clinical practice. This study aims to assess self-reported adherence to oral anticoagulants in a specialized Adult Outpatient Thrombosis Service (TS).  METHODS: This cross-sectional study included patients aged ≥ 18 years who were prescribed an oral anticoagulant and had attended at least one appointment with an Adult Outpatient Thrombosis Service (TS) between October 10, 2017, and May 31, 2019. Adherence to oral anticoagulant therapy was assessed using the 12-item validated Adherence to Refills and Medications Scale (ARMS) score. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate association between patient characteristics and medication adherence. Adherence rates in DOACs and warfarin were compared.

RESULTS

Three hundred and ninety-nine patients completed and returned the survey. Of the 399 who completed the survey, 74% were prescribed DOACs and 26% received warfarin. Most of the patients (89.3%) were ≥ 50 years of age and half (57.3%) were male. About two-thirds (67%) had at least post-secondary education. The duration of anticoagulation use differed between patients on DOAC and warfarin; a greater proportion of those who had used anticoagulants for less than 1 year was on DOACs compared to warfarin (20.9% vs 4.9%, p = 0.001). For patients who had been on anticoagulation for > 5 years, the proportion of warfarin patients was greater than DOAC (57.8% vs 20.5%, p = 0.001). Self-reported adherence to oral anticoagulant therapy using the 12-item ARMS scale for warfarin and DOACs were 87.3% and 90.9%, respectively. Among the warfarin users, patient satisfaction with TS was associated with medication adherence (OR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.05-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported medication adherence was similar between warfarin and DOACs. Since suboptimal adherence is associated with poor clinical outcomes and increased costs, various stakeholders should emphasize the importance of medication adherence to oral anticoagulants at each patient encounter.

Adherence levels and patterns for multiple cardiac medications prescribed to patients with incident atrial fibrillation events

AIMS

Using advanced longitudinal analyses, this real-world investigation examined medication adherence levels and patterns for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with significant cardiovascular and noncardiovascular multimorbid conditions for each of 5 medication classes (β-blockers, calcium channel blockers/digoxin, antiarrhythmics, anticoagulants, antiplatelets). The population was derived from a large cohort covering a wide age spectrum/diversified US geographical areas/wide range of socioeconomic-disability status.

METHODS

The patients were drawn from 3 different health plans. Adherence was defined in terms of the proportion of day covered (PDC), and its patterns were modelled in terms of group-based trajectory, with each pattern profiled in terms of comorbid history, demographic variables and health plan factors using multinomial regression modelling.

RESULTS

The total population consisted of 1 978 168 patients, with the AF cohort being older (average age of 64.6 years relative to 44.7 years for the non-AF cohort) and having fewer females (47.8% relative to 55.4 for the non-AF cohort). The AF cohort had significant cardiovascular/noncardiovascular multimorbidities and was much sicker than the non-AF cohort. A 6-group based trajectory solution appears to be the most logical outcome for each medication class according to assessed criteria. For each medication class, it consisted of one consistent adherent group (PDC ≥ 0.84), one fast declining group (PDC ≤ 0.11) and 4 intermediate nonadherence groups (slow decline [0.30-0.74 PDC range], occasional users [0.24-0.55 PDC range] and early gap/increased adherence [0.62-0.75]). The most consistent adherent groups were much lower than 50% of the total population and equal to 12.5-27.0% of the population, with the fast declining nonadherent pattern in the 5.6-35.0% of the population and the intermediate nonadherence equal to ~61% of the population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings confirm that medication adherence is of major concern among multimorbid patients, with adherence levels lower much than those reported in the literature. There are 3 patterns of intermediate nonadherence (slow decline, occasional users, early gap/increased adherence), which were found to be eligible for interventions aimed at improving their adherence levels for each medication class. This may help improve cardiovascular medication adherence using large medication nonadherence improvement programmes.

Underprescribing vs underfilling to oral anticoagulation: An analysis of linked medical record and claims data for a nationwide sample of patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants (OAC) is indicated for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with a moderate or high risk of stroke. Despite the benefits of stroke prevention, only 50%-60% of Americans with nonvalvular AF and a moderate or high risk of stroke receive OAC medication. OBJECTIVE: To understand the extent to which low OAC use by patients with AF is attributed to underprescribing or underfilling once the medication is prescribed. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study that used linked claims data and electronic health records from Optum Integrated data. Participants were adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with first AF between January 2013 and June 2017. The outcomes included (1) being prescribed OACs within 180 days of AF diagnosis or not and (2) filling an OAC prescription or not among patients with AF who were prescribed an OAC within 150 days of AF diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to determine factors associated with underprescribing and underfilling. RESULTS: Of the 6,141 individuals in the study cohort, 51% were not prescribed OACs within 6 months of their AF diagnosis. Of the 2,956 patients who were prescribed, 19% did not fill it at the pharmacy. In the final adjusted model, younger age, location (Northeast and South), a low CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, and a high HAS-BLED score were associated with a lower likelihood of being prescribed OACs. Among patients who were prescribed, Medicare enrollment (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI] = 2.2 [1.3-3.7]) and having a direct oral anticoagulant prescription (1.5 [1.2-1.9]) were associated with a lower likelihood of filling the prescription. CONCLUSIONS: Both underprescribing and underfilling are major drivers of low OAC use among patients with AF, and solutions to increase OAC use must address both prescribing and filling. DISCLOSURES: Research reported in this study was supported by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (K01HL142847 and R01HL157051). Dr Guo is supported by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK133465), PhMRA Foundation Research Starter Award, and the University of Florida Research Opportunity Seed Fund. Dr Hernandez reports scientific advisory board fees from Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb, outside of the submitted work.

Prophylactic Left Atrial Appendage Exclusion in Cardiac Surgery Patients With Elevated CHA2DS2-VASc Score: Results of the Randomized ATLAS Trial

OBJECTIVE

Patients with elevated CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores are at high risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and thromboembolic events (TE) after cardiac surgery. Left atrial appendage exclusion (LAAE) is a permanent, continuous approach to stroke prevention in AF, overcoming limitations of oral anticoagulation (OAC). We report ATLAS trial results focused on LAAE technical success and perioperative safety and TE rates with and without LAAE in cardiac surgery patients who developed postoperative AF (POAF).

METHODS

ATLAS (NCT02701062) was a prospective, multicenter, feasibility trial. Patients age ≥18 years, undergoing structural heart procedure, with no preoperative AF, CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥2, and HAS-BLED ≥2 were randomized 2:1 to LAAE or no LAAE. Patients who developed POAF and/or received LAAE were followed for 1 year. LAAE was evaluated with intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography.

RESULTS

A total of 562 patients were randomized to LAAE (n = 376) or no LAAE (n = 186). Mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc (3.4 vs 3.4) and HAS-BLED (2.8 vs 2.9) scores were similar for LAAE and no LAAE groups. LAAE success (no flow nor residual stump >10 mm) was 99%. One LAAE-related serious adverse event (0.27%) occurred and was resolved without sequelae. There were 44.3% of patients who developed POAF. Through 1 year, 3.4% of LAAE patients and 5.6% of no LAAE patients had TE. OAC was used by 32.5% of POAF patients. Bleeding was higher with OAC than without (16.1% vs 5.4%, P = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

ATLAS demonstrated a high rate of successful LAAE with low LAAE-related serious adverse events in cardiac surgery patients. Study results should be considered in future trial design to further evaluate prophylactic LAAE for stroke prevention in cardiac surgery patients with elevated stroke risk.

Cardiovascular and renal protective effects of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation

Aim

Data on the use of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in relation to the risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and renal protection among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), are relatively sparse. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and safety of NOACs with those of warfarin for vascular protection in a large-scale, nationwide Asian population with AF.

Methods and results

Patients with AF who were prescribed oral anticoagulants according to the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment database between 2014 and 2017 were analyzed. The warfarin and NOAC groups were balanced using propensity score weighting. Clinical outcomes included ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, peripheral artery disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), CV death, and all-cause death. NOAC use was associated with a lower risk of angina pectoris (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69–0.89] p<0.001), CKD stage 4 (HR, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.28–0.89], p = 0.02), and ESRD (HR, 0.15[95% CI, 0.08–0.32], p<0.001) than warfarin use. NOACs and warfarin did not significantly differ with respect to stroke reduction (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.88–1.25], p = 0.19). NOAC use was associated with a lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage (HR, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.44–0.83], p = 0.0019), CV death (HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.43–0.70], p<0.001), and all-cause death (HR, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.52–0.69], p<0.001) than warfarin use.

Conclusion

NOACs were associated with a significantly lower risk of adverse CV and renovascular outcomes than warfarin in patients with AF.

Trends in Uptake and Adherence to Oral Anticoagulation for Patients With Incident Atrial Fibrillation at High Stroke Risk Across Health Care Settings

Background

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy prevents morbidity and mortality in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation; whether location of diagnosis influences OAC uptake or adherence is unknown.

Methods and Results

Retrospective cohort study (2008–2019), identifying adults with incident nonvalvular atrial fibrillation across health care settings (emergency department, hospital, outpatient) at high risk of stroke. OAC uptake and adherence via proportion of days covered for direct OACs and time in therapeutic range for warfarin were measured. Proportion of days covered was categorized as low (0–39%), intermediate (40–79%), and high (80–100%). Warfarin control was defined as time in therapeutic range ≥65%. All‐cause mortality was examined at a 3‐year landmark. Among 75 389 patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (47.0% women, mean 77.4 years), 19.7% were diagnosed in the emergency department, 59.1% in the hospital, and 21.2% in the outpatient setting. Ninety‐day OAC uptake was 51.6% in the emergency department, 50.9% in the hospital, and 67.9% in the outpatient setting (P<0.0001). High direct OAC adherence increased from 64.9% to 80.3% in the emergency department, 64.3% to 81.7% in the hospital, and 70.9% to 88.6% in the outpatient setting over time (P values for trend <0.0001). Warfarin control was 40.3% overall and remained unchanged. In multivariable analysis, outpatient diagnosis compared with the hospital was associated with greater OAC uptake (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; [95% CI, 1.72–1.87]) and direct OAC (OR, 1.42; [95% CI, 1.27–1.59]) and warfarin (OR, 1.49; [95% CI, 1.36–1.63]) adherence. Varying or persistently low adherence was associated with a poor prognosis, especially for warfarin.

Conclusions

Locale of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation diagnosis is associated with varying OAC uptake and adherence. Interventions specific to health care settings are needed to improve stroke prevention.

Group based trajectory modeling to assess adherence to oral anticoagulants among atrial fibrillation patients with comorbidities: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Poor adherence to oral anticoagulants is a significant problem in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with comorbidities as it increases the risk for cardiac and thromboembolic events.

AIM

The primary objective was to evaluate adherence to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM). The secondary objective was to identify the predictors of adherence to oral anticoagulants. Finally, to report the drug interactions with DOACs/warfarin.

METHOD

This retrospective study was conducted among continuously enrolled Medicare Advantage Plan members from January 2016-December 2019. AF patients with comorbid hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia using warfarin/DOACs were included. Monthly adherence to DOAC/warfarin was measured using proportion of days covered (PDC) and then modeled in a logistic GBTM to identify the distinct patterns of adherence. Logistic regression model was conducted to identify the predictors of adherence to oral anticoagulants adjusting for all baseline characteristics. Concomitant use of DOACs/warfarin with CYP3A4,P-gp inhibitors were measured.

RESULTS

Among 317 patients, 137 (43.2%) and 79 (24.9%) were DOAC, and warfarin users, respectively. The adherence trajectory model for DOACs included gradual decline (40.4%), adherent (38.8%), and rapid decline (20.8%). The adherence trajectories for warfarin adherence included gradual decline (8.9%), adherent (59.4%), and gaps in adherence (21.7%). Predictors of adherence included type of oral anticoagulant, stroke risk score, low-income subsidy, and baseline PDC. CYP3A4,P-gp drugs were co-administered with DOACs /warfarin resulting in adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to oral anticoagulants is suboptimal. Interventions tailored according to past adherence trajectories may be effective in improving patient's adherence.

Changes in predicted opioid overdose risk over time in a state Medicaid program: a group-based trajectory modeling analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The time lag encountered when accessing health-care data is one major barrier to implementing opioid overdose prediction measures in practice. Little is known regarding how one's opioid overdose risk changes over time. We aimed to identify longitudinal patterns of individual predicted overdose risks among Medicaid beneficiaries after initiation of opioid prescriptions.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study in Pennsylvania, USA among Pennsylvania Medicaid beneficiaries aged 18-64 years who initiated opioid prescriptions between July 2017 and September 2018 (318 585 eligible beneficiaries (mean age = 39 ± 12 years, female = 65.7%, White = 62.2% and Black = 24.9%).

MEASUREMENTS

We first applied a previously developed and validated machine-learning algorithm to obtain risk scores for opioid overdose emergency room or hospital visits in 3-month intervals for each beneficiary who initiated opioid therapy, until disenrollment from Medicaid, death or the end of observation (December 2018). We performed group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of these predicted overdose risk scores over time.

FINDINGS

Among eligible beneficiaries, 0.61% had one or more occurrences of opioid overdose in a median follow-up of 15 months. We identified five unique opioid overdose risk trajectories: three trajectories (accounting for 92% of the cohort) had consistent overdose risk over time, including consistent low-risk (63%), consistent medium-risk (25%) and consistent high-risk (4%) groups; another two trajectories (accounting for 8%) had overdose risks that substantially changed over time, including a group that transitioned from high- to medium-risk (3%) and another group that increased from medium- to high-risk over time (5%).

CONCLUSIONS

More than 90% of Medicaid beneficiaries in Pennsylvania USA with one or more opioid prescriptions had consistent, predicted opioid overdose risks over 15 months. Applying opioid prediction algorithms developed from historical data may not be a major barrier to implementation in practice for the large majority of individuals.

Use of oral anticoagulants among individuals with cancer and atrial fibrillation in the United States, 2010-2016

Background

Anticoagulation among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation is challenging due to elevated risk of bleeding and stroke. We characterized use of oral anticoagulants among patients with cancer and non‐valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).

Methods

We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare data and included patients with cancer aged ≥66 years with an incident diagnosis of NVAF from 2010 to 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazard model and multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with anticoagulant use versus no use and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin use, respectively.

Results

Of 27,702 patients with cancer and NVAF, 4469 (16.1%) used DOACs and 3577 (12.9%) used warfarin. Among 8046 anticoagulant users, DOACs use increased from 21.8% in 2011 to 76.2% in 2016, with a corresponding decline in warfarin use from 78.2% to 23.8%. Nearly 7 out of 10 patients with cancer and NVAF did not initiate anticoagulation in 2016. Anticoagulant use was more likely among those with higher CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–1.90 for score ≥6 vs. 1) or with lower HAS‐BLED scores (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.67–2.30 for score 1 vs. ≥6). Among anticoagulant users, DOAC use was less likely than warfarin in those with higher CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores (odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% CI 0.33–0.84 for score ≥6 vs. 1).

Conclusions

Nearly 7 out of 10 patients with cancer and NVAF did not receive anticoagulation. Use of DOACs increased from 2010 to 2016, with a corresponding decline in warfarin use. DOACs are used less than warfarin among those at higher risk of stroke.

Modern Anticoagulant Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation: Patient Adherence in Clinical Practice

Aim. To assess the adherence of doctors and patients to anticoagulant therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF).

Materials and methods. An observational prospective study included 99 patients with AF at high risk of thromboembolic complications in Ryazan and Omsk. To study adherence, a questionnaire for quantitative assessment of treatment adherence ("QAA-25") was used. The questionnaire allows you to assess adherence by three main parameters separately: adherence to drug therapy, lifestyle modification and medical support. For the purposes of the study, adherence rates of less than 75% were regarded as insufficient, 75%. % or more as sufficient. To assess food preferences and determine the risk of changes in the activity of warfarin, a questionnaire of food preferences was used. The questionnaire allows you to assess the risk of alimentary increase (≥30 points) and decrease (≥60 points) of warfarin activity, as well as the overall risk of alimentary change (≥90 points) of warfarin activity in each patient, taking into account the volume and frequency of consumption of products that affect the activity of warfarin.

Results. After the first visit, 99% of respondents received anticoagulant treatment. Rivaroxaban was the leader in prescribability among anticoagulants (36.7%). About a third of respondents were prescribed apixaban by a doctor (30.6%) and dabigatran  (17.3%)  and  warfarin  (19.4%)  were prescribed almost twice as rarely as rivaroxaban. Respondents with the highest rates of adherence to drug therapy, lifestyle modification and medical support are AF patients taking apixaban. The respondents who were prescribed rivaroxaban had the lowest level of adherence to drug therapy and lifestyle modification. And the lowest level of commitment to medical support is among respondents who have been prescribed warfarin. The number of people with a sufficient level of commitment did not reach half. Only 43.9% were ready to take prescribed medications and slightly more than a third (34.7%) agreed to come to appointments for a long time. But, despite the importance of lifestyle modification in patients with AF, only 16.3% of respondents said they were ready to give up bad habits, lose weight and lead a more active lifestyle. The proportion of people with sufficient adherence to drug therapy was the smallest in the group taking rivaroxaban (25.7%). The least number of respondents with sufficient commitment to medical support in the group taking dabigatran (25%). Only one in ten patients (11.1%) taking warfarin had a sufficient level of commitment to lifestyle modification. 15% of the study participants had an increased risk of alimentary changes in the activity of warfarin.

Conclusion. Assessment of adherence to anticoagulant therapy by doctors in two regional centers (Omsk and Ryazan) showed high prescribability of preventive antithrombotic therapy, which corresponds to modern therapeutic approaches. At the same time, patients demonstrated rather low levels of adherence to drug therapy, lifestyle modification, and medical support.

Do Anticoagulants Preserve Function and Quality of Life in Older Adults with Atrial Fibrillation?

Anticoagulants in Older Adults with Atrial FibrillationAn 82-year-old woman with hypertension and diabetes is seen in the clinic for newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. She uses a walker and fell twice last year. She completes activities of daily living independently. Should she be prescribed an anticoagulant?

Three Sides to the Story: Adherence Trajectories During the First Year of SGLT2 Inhibitor Therapy Among Medicare Beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to understand the factors associated with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) adherence and longitudinal adherence trajectories in older adults with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using Medicare claims data (April 2013-December 2017), we identified 83,675 new SGLT2i users ≥66 years old with type 2 diabetes. We measured SGLT2i adherence as the proportion of days covered (PDC) during the first year of SGLT2i therapy. We used linear regression to assess the association between baseline covariates and PDC. Then we used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct longitudinal SGLT2i adherence groups and used a multivariable logistic regression model to examine the association between baseline covariates and membership in these adherence groups.

RESULTS

Unadjusted mean PDC was 63%. Previous adherence to statins had the strongest positive association with PDC (regression coefficient 6.00% [95% CI 5.50, 6.50]), whereas female sex (-5.51% [-6.02, -5.00]), and Black race/ethnicity (-5.06% [-6.03, -4.09]) had the strongest negative association. We identified three adherence trajectory groups: low (23% of patients, mean PDC 17%), moderate (32%, mean PDC 50%), and high (45%, mean PDC 96%) adherence. More patients in the high adherence group were previously adherent to statins (odds ratio 1.43 [95% CI 1.39, 1.48]), and more women (1.28 [1.23, 1.32]) and Black patients (1.31 [1.23, 1.40]) were in the low adherence group.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of older patients with type 2 diabetes, 45% were highly adherent during the first year of SGLT2i treatment. Female sex and Black race/ethnicity were most strongly associated with low adherence.

Electronic alerts to initiate anticoagulation dialogue in patients with atrial fibrillation

IMPORTANCE

The benefit of an electronic support system for the prescription and adherence to oral anticoagulation therapy among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter at heightened risk for of stroke and systemic thromboembolism is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of a combined alert intervention and shared decision-making tool to improve prescription rates of oral anticoagulation therapy and adherence.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective single arm study of 939 consecutive patients treated at a large tertiary healthcare system.

EXPOSURES

An electronic support system comprising 1) an electronic alert to identify patients with AF or atrial flutter, a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2, and not on oral anticoagulation and 2) electronic shared decision-making tool to promote discussions between providers and patients regarding therapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary endpoint was prescription rate of anticoagulation therapy. The secondary endpoint was adherence to anticoagulation therapy defined as medication possession ratio ≥ 80% during the 12 months of follow-up.

RESULTS

Between June 13, 2018 and August 31, 2018, the automated intervention identified and triggered a unique alert for 939 consecutive patients with AF or atrial flutter, a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥2 who were not on oral anticoagulation. The median CHA₂DS₂-VASc score among all patients identified by the alert was 2 and the median untreated duration prior to the alert was 495 days (interquartile range 123 - 1,831 days). Of the patients identified by the alert, 345 (36.7%) initiated anticoagulation therapy and 594 (63.3%) did not: 68.7% were treated with a non-Vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), 22.0% with warfarin, and 9.3 % combination of NOAC and warfarin. Compared with historical anticoagulation rates, the electronic alert was associated with a 23.6% increase in anticoagulation prescriptions. The overall 1-year rate of adherence to anticoagulant therapy was 75.4% (260/345).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

An electronic automated alert can successfully identify patients with AF and atrial flutter at high risk for stroke, increase oral anticoagulation prescription, and support high rates of adherence.

Comparison of oral anticoagulation use and adherence among Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in stand-alone prescription drug plans vs Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans

BACKGROUND: For atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, oral anticoagulants (OACs) can reduce the risk of stroke by 60%; however, nearly 50% of patients recommended to receive OACs do not receive therapy. Integrated insurers that cover pharmacy and medical benefits may be incentivized to improve OAC use and adherence because they benefit from offsets in medical costs associated with prevented strokes. OBJECTIVE: To compare OAC use and adherence between AF patients enrolled in Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDPs), which only cover pharmacy benefits, and those enrolled in Medicare Advantage prescription drug (MAPD) plans, which cover medical and pharmacy benefits. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study, conducted using 2014-2016 Medicare claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and a large regional health plan in Pennsylvania. Primary outcomes included OAC use and OAC adherence. OAC use was measured as filling at least 1 prescription for an OAC after AF diagnosis. OAC adherence was defined as having greater than or equal to 80% of days covered with an OAC. We constructed conditional logistic regression models in propensity score-matched samples to test the association between enrollment in PDPs or MAPD plans and outcomes. RESULTS: There were 2,551 AF patients enrolled in PDPs and 4,502 in MAPD plans before propensity score matching. The propensity score-matched sample included 2,537 patients in each group. OAC use was higher among MAPD beneficiaries (74%-76%) compared with PDP beneficiaries (70%; P < 0.001), and 41%-42% of MAPD beneficiaries were adherent to OACs, compared with 34% of PDP beneficiaries (P < 0.001). In adjusted analyses among propensity score-matched samples, PDP enrollment was associated with lower odds of OAC use (OR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.56-0.81) and adherence (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.59-0.78) compared with MAPD enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: AF patients enrolled in MAPD plans were more likely to use and adhere to OACs compared with PDP enrollees. These results may reflect the financial incentives of MAPD plans to improve guideline-recommended OAC use, since MAPD insurers bear the risk of pharmacy and medical costs and thus may benefit from cost savings associated with averted stroke events. As efforts to improve use and adherence of OACs in AF patients increase, focus should be given to how insurance benefit designs can affect medication use. DISCLOSURES: No outside funding supported this study. Hernandez has received personal fees from BMS and Pfizer, unrelated to this study. The other authors have nothing to disclose.

Effect of Shared Decision-Making for Stroke Prevention on Treatment Adherence and Safety Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Background Guidelines promote shared decision-making (SDM) for anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation. We recently showed that adding a within-encounter SDM tool to usual care (UC) increases patient involvement in decision-making and clinician satisfaction, without affecting encounter length. We aimed to estimate the extent to which use of an SDM tool changed adherence to the decided care plan and clinical safety end points. Methods and Results We conducted a multicenter, encounter-level, randomized trial assessing the efficacy of UC with versus without an SDM conversation tool for use during the clinical encounter (Anticoagulation Choice) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation considering starting or reviewing anticoagulation treatment. We conducted a chart and pharmacy review, blinded to randomization status, at 10 months after enrollment to assess primary adherence (proportion of patients who were prescribed an anticoagulant who filled their first prescription) and secondary adherence (estimated using the proportion of days for which treatment was supplied and filled for direct oral anticoagulant, and as time in therapeutic range for warfarin). We also noted any strokes, transient ischemic attacks, major bleeding, or deaths as safety end points. We enrolled 922 evaluable patient encounters (Anticoagulation Choice=463, and UC=459), of which 814 (88%) had pharmacy and clinical follow-up. We found no differences between arms in either primary adherence (78% of patients in the SDM arm filled their first prescription versus 81% in UC arm) or secondary adherence to anticoagulation (percentage days covered of the direct oral anticoagulant was 74.1% in SDM versus 71.6% in UC; time in therapeutic range for warfarin was 66.6% in SDM versus 64.4% in UC). Safety outcomes, mostly bleeds, occurred in 13% of participants in the SDM arm and 14% in the UC arm. Conclusions In this large, randomized trial comparing UC with a tool to promote SDM against UC alone, we found no significant differences between arms in primary or secondary adherence to anticoagulation or in clinical safety outcomes. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: clinicaltrials.gov. Identifier: NCT02905032.

Primary care provider payment models and adherence to anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is recommended for the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF). However, only 50%-60% of AF patients in the United States are treated with OAC, and 60% of them adhere to OAC therapy over time. OBJECTIVES: To (1) compare adherent use of OAC between AF patients who received primary care from practices involved in shared-savings models and patients who received care from practices not involved in shared savings and (2) examine the trend of adherence to OAC over time. Because OAC can save downstream medical costs associated with averted stroke events, we hypothesized that OAC adherence would be higher among patients receiving care from practices involved in shared savings. METHODS: Using 2014-2019 claims data from a health insurer in western Pennsylvania, we identified 20,637 AF patients from 2015-2018. Patients were followed from the first AF diagnosis (index date) for 12 months or until disenrollment. We categorized patients according to the payment model of the practice from which they received primary care: shared savings (n = 8,844) and no shared savings (n = 11,793). The primary outcome was adherent use of OAC therapy, which was defined as having at least 80% of the followup period covered with OAC. Secondary outcomes included adherent use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and adherent use of warfarin. We constructed logistic regression models to assess the association between involvement in shared savings and adherent use of OAC, while controlling for demographics, clinical characteristics, and index year. RESULTS: 34% of patients in the shared-savings group adhered to OAC, compared with 32.7% in the no shared-savings group (P = 0.04). After adjustment, adherence was higher for the shared-savings group for OAC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.14) and warfarin (aOR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.02-1.20) compared with the no shared-savings group. However, the odds of adherent use of DOACs did not statistically differ between shared savings and no shared savings (aOR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.91-1.08). The odds of adherent OAC use increased over time: the aOR of adherent use of OAC was 1.21 (95% CI = 1.09-1.34) for index year 2016; 1.50 (95% CI = 1.36-1.67) for 2017; and 1.78 (95% CI 1.60-1.98) for 2018, all compared with 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of primary care from a practice involved in shared savings was associated with a higher adherent use of OAC and warfarin for patients with atrial fibrillation. Furthermore, adherent use of OAC improved over time for both treatment groups. Our research demonstrates that the alignment of financial incentives between providers and insurers may improve the use of therapies with downstream cost-saving potential. DISCLOSURES: This project was funded by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (grant number K01HL142847). Hernandez has received consulting fees from Pfizer and BMS, outside of the submitted work. The other authors have nothing to disclose.

Adherence with direct oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation: Trends, risk factors, and outcomes

Background

Adherence to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) remains a concern among non‐valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. We aimed to assess patterns of adherence with DOACs and examine their association with ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (SE).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study includes all adult members of Clalit Health Services, the largest healthcare provider in Israel, with newly diagnosed non‐valvular AF between January 2014 and March 2019, who initiated DOACs within 90 days of AF diagnosis and used DOACs exclusively. Adherence was assessed using the proportion of days covered (PDC) over the first year of treatment, and high adherence was defined as PDC ≥80%. Regression models were used to identify predictors of high adherence to DOACs and to examine the association between adherence and stroke or SE.

Results

Overall 15,255 patients were included in this study. The proportion of highly adherent (PDC ≥80%) DOACs users was around 75% and decreased slightly over the years. On multivariable analyses, the likelihood of high adherence to DOACs increased with age and across higher socioeconomic classes, and was more likely among females, Jews, statins users, and patients with CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score ≥2. Risk of stroke and SE was lower among highly adherent DOACs users; adjusted HR 0.56 (95% CI, 0.45–0.71), compared to users with PDC <80%.

Conclusions

Adherence with DOACs is still sub‐optimal among non‐valvular AF patients, resulting in a higher risk of stroke and SE.

Long-Term Medication Adherence Trajectories to Direct Oral Anticoagulants and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are widely used in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention. However, long‐term adherence to DOACs and clinical outcomes in real‐world clinical practice is not well understood. This study evaluated long‐term medication adherence patterns to DOAC therapy and clinical outcomes in a large US integrated health care system.

Methods and Results

We included adult patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who newly initiated DOACs between 2012 and 2018 in Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Long‐term (3.5 years) adherence trajectories to DOAC were investigated using monthly proportion of days covered and group‐based trajectory models. Factors associated with long‐term adherence trajectories were investigated. Multivariable Poisson regression analyses were used to investigate thromboembolism and major bleeding events associated with long‐term adherence trajectories. Of 18 920 patients newly initiating DOACs, we identified 3 DOAC adherence trajectories: consistently adherent (85.2%), early discontinuation within 6 months (10.6%), and gradually declining adherence (4.2%). Predictors such as lower CHA₂DS₂‐VASc (0–1 versus ≥5) and previous injurious falls were associated with both early discontinuation and gradually declining adherence trajectories. Early discontinuation of DOAC therapy was associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism (rate ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05–1.86) especially after 12 months from DOAC initiation but a lower risk of major bleed compared with consistent adherence (rate ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30–0.75), specifically during the first 12 months following DOAC initiation. A gradual decline in adherence to DOACs was not statistically significantly associated with thromboembolism outcomes compared with consistent adherence.

Conclusions

Although a large proportion of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were adherent to DOAC therapy over 3.5 years, early discontinuation of DOAC was associated a higher risk of thromboembolic events. Future tailored interventions for early discontinuers may improve clinical outcomes.

Social determinants of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation affects almost 60 million adults worldwide. Atrial fibrillation is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular morbidity and death as well as with social, psychological and economic burdens on patients and their families. Social determinants - such as race and ethnicity, financial resources, social support, access to health care, rurality and residential environment, local language proficiency and health literacy - have prominent roles in the evaluation, treatment and management of atrial fibrillation. Addressing the social determinants of health provides a crucial opportunity to reduce the substantial clinical and non-clinical complications associated with atrial fibrillation. In this Review, we summarize the contributions of social determinants to the patient experience and outcomes associated with this common condition. We emphasize the relevance of social determinants and their important intersection with atrial fibrillation treatment and outcomes. In closing, we identify gaps in the literature and propose future directions for the investigation of social determinants and atrial fibrillation.

Joint Latent Class Analysis of Oral Anticoagulation Use and Risk of Stroke or Systemic Thromboembolism in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is recommended to reduce the risk of stroke or systemic thromboembolism (TE) in atrial fibrillation (AF). In this study, we applied novel joint latent class mixed models to identify heterogeneous patterns of trajectories of OAC use and determined how these trajectories are associated with risks of thromboembolic outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used 2013-2016 claims data from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Our study sample included 16,399 patients newly diagnosed with AF in 2014-2015 who were followed for 12 months after the first AF diagnosis and filled at least one OAC prescription in this time period. OAC use was defined as the number of days covered with OACs every 30-day interval after the first AF diagnosis. We used a joint latent class mixed model to simultaneously evaluate the longitudinal patterns of OAC use and time to stroke or TE, while adjusting for age, race, CHAD2S2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score. Five classes of OAC use patterns were identified: late users (17.8%); late initiators (12.5%); early discontinuers (18.6%); late discontinuers (15.4%); and continuous users (35.6%). Compared with continuous users, the risk of stroke or TE was higher for participants in the late initiators (hazard ratio [HR] 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-2.01) and late discontinuers (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.45) classes.

CONCLUSION

Late initiators and late discontinuers had a higher risk of stroke or TE than continuous users. Early initiation and continuous OAC use is important in preventing stroke and TE among patients diagnosed with AF.

Risks associated with discontinuation of oral anticoagulation in newly diagnosed patients with atrial fibrillation: Results from the GARFIELD-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces the risk of stroke/systemic embolism (SE). The impact of OAC discontinuation is less well documented.

OBJECTIVE

Investigate outcomes of patients prospectively enrolled in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation study who discontinued OAC.

METHODS

Oral anticoagulation discontinuation was defined as cessation of treatment for ≥7 consecutive days. Adjusted outcome risks were assessed in 23 882 patients with 511 days of median follow-up after discontinuation.

RESULTS

Patients who discontinued (n = 3114, 13.0%) had a higher risk (hazard ratio [95% CI]) of all-cause death (1.62 [1.25-2.09]), stroke/systemic embolism (SE) (2.21 [1.42-3.44]) and myocardial infarction (MI) (1.85 [1.09-3.13]) than patients who did not, whether OAC was restarted or not. This higher risk of outcomes after discontinuation was similar for patients treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) (p for interactions range = 0.145-0.778). Bleeding history (1.43 [1.14-1.80]), paroxysmal vs. persistent AF (1.15 [1.02-1.29]), emergency room care setting vs. office (1.37 [1.18-1.59]), major, clinically relevant nonmajor, and minor bleeding (10.02 [7.19-13.98], 2.70 [2.24-3.25] and 1.90 [1.61-2.23]), stroke/SE (4.09 [2.55-6.56]), MI (2.74 [1.69-4.43]), and left atrial appendage procedures (4.99 [1.82-13.70]) were predictors of discontinuation. Age (0.84 [0.81-0.88], per 10-year increase), history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (0.81 [0.71-0.93]), diabetes (0.88 [0.80-0.97]), weeks from AF onset to treatment (0.96 [0.93-0.99] per week), and permanent vs. persistent AF (0.73 [0.63-0.86]) were predictors of lower discontinuation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

In GARFIELD-AF, the rate of discontinuation was 13.0%. Discontinuation for ≥7 consecutive days was associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and MI risk. Caution should be exerted when considering any OAC discontinuation beyond 7 days.

A Patient Decision Aid for Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: Development and Pilot Study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common predisposing factors for ischemic stroke worldwide. Because of this, patients with AF are prescribed anticoagulant medications to decrease the risk. The availability of different options for oral anticoagulation makes it difficult for some patients to decide a preferred choice of medication. Clinical guidelines often recommend enhancing the decision-making process of patients by increasing their involvement in health decisions. In particular, the use of patient decision aids (PDAs) in patients with AF was associated with increased knowledge and increased likelihood of making a choice. However, the majority of available PDAs are from Western countries.

Objective

We aimed to develop and pilot test a PDA to help patients with nonvalvular AF choose an oral anticoagulant for stroke prevention in the local setting. Outcomes were (1) reduction in patient decisional conflict, (2) improvement in patient knowledge, and (3) patient and physician acceptability.

Methods

We followed the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) to develop a mobile app–based PDA for anticoagulation therapy in patients with nonvalvular AF. Focus group discussions identified decisional needs, which were subsequently incorporated into the PDA to compare choices for anticoagulation. Based on recommendations, the prototype PDA was rendered by at least 30 patients and 30 physicians. Decisional conflict and patient knowledge were tested before and after the PDA was implemented. Patient acceptability and physician acceptability were measured after each encounter.

Results

Anticoagulant options were compared by the PDA using three factors that were identified (impact on stroke and bleeding risk, and price). The comparisons were presented as tables and graphs. The prototype PDA was rendered by 30 doctors and 37 patients for pilot testing. The mean duration of the encounters was 15 minutes. The decisional conflict score reduced by 35 points (100-point scale; P<.001). The AF knowledge score improved from 10 to 15 (P<.001). The PDA was acceptable for both patients and doctors.

Conclusions

Our study showed that an app-based PDA for anticoagulation therapy in patients with nonvalvular AF (1) reduced patient decisional conflict, (2) improved patient knowledge, and (3) was acceptable to patients and physicians. A PDA is potentially acceptable and useful in our setting. A randomized controlled trial is warranted to test its effectiveness compared to usual care. PDAs for other conditions should also be developed.

Disparities in Anticoagulant Therapy Initiation for Incident Atrial Fibrillation by Race/Ethnicity Among Patients in the Veterans Health Administration System

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation is a common cardiac rhythm disturbance causing substantial morbidity and mortality that disproportionately affects racial/ethnic minority groups. Anticoagulation reduces stroke risk in atrial fibrillation, yet studies show it is underprescribed in racial/ethnic minority patients.

OBJECTIVE

To compare initiation of anticoagulant therapy by race/ethnicity for patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VA) system with atrial fibrillation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included 111 666 patients within the VA system with incident atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed between December 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Any anticoagulation was defined as receipt of warfarin or direct-acting oral anticoagulants, apixaban, dabigatran, edoxaban, or rivaroxaban.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Initiation of any anticoagulation (or direct-acting oral anticoagulant therapy in those who initiated any anticoagulation) was examined within 90 days of an index atrial fibrillation diagnosis.

RESULTS

Our final cohort comprised 111 666 patients (109 386 men [98.0%] and 95 493 White patients [85.5%]; mean [SD] age, 72.9 [10.4] years). A total of 69 590 patients (62.3%) initiated any anticoagulant therapy, varying 10.5 percentage points by race/ethnicity (P < .001); initiation was lowest in Asian (52.2% [n = 676]) and Black (60.3% [n = 6177]) patients and highest in White patients (62.7% [n = 59 881]). Among anticoagulant initiators, 45 381 (65.2%) used direct-acting oral anticoagulants, varying 7.2 percentage points by race/ethnicity (P < .001); initiation was lowest in Hispanic (58.3% [n = 1470]), American Indian/Alaska Native (59.8% [n = 201]), and Black (60.9% [n = 3763]) patients and highest in White patients (66.0% [n = 39 502). Compared with White patients, the odds of initiating any anticoagulant therapy were significantly lower for Asian (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.94) and Black (aOR, 0.90; 95% CI 0.85-0.95) patients. Among initiators, the adjusted odds of direct-acting oral anticoagulant initiation were significantly lower for Hispanic (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89), American Indian/Alaska Native (aOR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57-0.99), and Black (aOR, 0.74; 95% CI 0.69-0.80) patients.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that in patients with incident atrial fibrillation managed in the VA system, race/ethnicity was independently associated with initiating any anticoagulant therapy and direct-acting oral anticoagulant use among anticoagulant initiators. Understanding the reasons for these treatment disparities is essential to improving equitable atrial fibrillation management and outcomes among racial/ethnic minority patients treated in the VA system.

Integrated Care in Atrial Fibrillation: A Road Map to the Future

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most commonly encountered arrhythmia in clinical practice with an epidemiological coupling appreciated with advancing age, cardiometabolic risk factors, and structural heart disease. This has resulted in a significant public health burden over the years, evident through increasing rates of hospitalization and AF-related clinical encounters. The resultant gap in health care outcomes is largely twinned with suboptimal rates of anticoagulation prescription and adherence, deficits in symptom identification and management, and insufficient comorbid cardiovascular risk factor investigation and modification. In view of these shortfalls in care, the establishment of integrated chronic care models serves as a road map to best clinical practice. The expansion of integrated chronic care programs, which include multidisciplinary team care, nurse-led AF clinics, and use of telemedicine, are expected to improve AF-related outcomes in the coming years. This review will delve into current gaps in AF care and the role of integrated chronic care models in bridging fragmentations in its management.

Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

Ischemic strokes related to atrial fibrillation are highly prevalent, presenting with severe neurologic syndromes and associated with high risk of recurrence. Although advances have been made in both primary and secondary stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation, the long-term risks for stroke recurrence and bleeding complications from antithrombotic treatment remain substantial. We summarize the major advances in stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation during the past 30 years and focus on novel diagnostic and treatment approaches currently under investigation in ongoing clinical trials. Non–vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants have been proven to be safer and equally effective compared with warfarin in stroke prevention for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Non–vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants are being investigated for the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation and rheumatic heart disease, for the treatment of patients with recent embolic stroke of undetermined source and indirect evidence of cardiac embolism, and in the prevention of vascular-mediated cognitive decline in patients with atrial fibrillation. Multiple clinical trials are assessing the optimal timing of non–vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant initiation after a recent ischemic stroke and the benefit:harm ratio of non–vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation and history of previous intracranial bleeding. Ongoing trials are addressing the usefulness of left atrial appendage occlusion in both primary and secondary stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation, including those with high risk of bleeding. The additive value of prolonged cardiac monitoring for subclinical atrial fibrillation detection through smartphone applications or implantable cardiac devices, together with the optimal medical management of individuals with covert paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, is a topic of intensive research interest. Colchicine treatment and factor XIa inhibition constitute 2 novel pharmacologic approaches that might provide future treatment options in the secondary prevention of cardioembolic stroke attributable to atrial fibrillation.

Assessment of Shared Decision-making for Stroke Prevention in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Shared decision-making (SDM) about anticoagulant treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is widely recommended but its effectiveness is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the extent to which the use of an SDM tool affects the quality of SDM and anticoagulant treatment decisions in at-risk patients with AF.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This encounter-randomized trial recruited patients with nonvalvular AF who were considering starting or reviewing anticoagulant treatment and their clinicians at academic, community, and safety-net medical centers between January 30, 2017 and June 27, 2019. Encounters were randomized to either the standard care arm or care that included the use of an SDM tool (intervention arm). Data were analyzed from August 1 to November 30, 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Standard care or care using the Anticoagulation Choice Shared Decision Making tool (which presents individualized risk estimates and compares anticoagulant treatment options across issues of importance to patients) during the clinical encounter.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Quality of SDM (which included quality of communication, patient knowledge about AF and anticoagulant treatment, accuracy of patient estimates of their own stroke risk [within 30% of their estimate], decisional conflict, and satisfaction), decisions made during the encounter, duration of the encounter, and clinician involvement of patients in the SDM process.

RESULTS

The clinical trial enrolled 922 patients (559 men [60.6%]; mean [SD] age, 71 [11] years) and 244 clinicians. A total of 463 patients were randomized to the intervention arm and 459 patients to the standard care arm. Participants in both arms reported high communication quality, high knowledge, and low decisional conflict, demonstrated low accuracy in their risk perception, and would similarly recommend the approach used in their encounter. Clinicians were significantly more satisfied after intervention encounters (400 of 453 encounters [88.3%] vs 277 of 448 encounters [61.8%]; adjusted relative risk, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.42-1.53). A total of 747 of 873 patients (85.6%) chose to start or continue receiving an anticoagulant medication. Patient involvement in decision-making (as assessed through video recordings of the encounters using the Observing Patient Involvement in Decision Making 12-item scale) scores were significantly higher in the intervention arm (mean [SD] score, 33.0 [10.8] points vs 29.1 [13.1] points, respectively; adjusted mean difference, 4.2 points; 95% CI, 2.8-5.6 points). No significant between-arm difference was found in encounter duration (mean [SD] duration, 32 [16] minutes in the intervention arm vs 31 [17] minutes in the standard care arm; adjusted mean between-arm difference, 1.1; 95% CI, -0.3 to 2.5 minutes).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The use of an SDM encounter tool improved several measures of SDM quality and clinician satisfaction, with no significant effect on treatment decisions or encounter duration. These results help to calibrate expectations about the value of implementing SDM tools in the care of patients with AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02905032.

Medication Adherence Trajectories: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Traditional adherence measures such as proportion of days covered (PDC) and medication possession ratio (MPR) are limited in their ability to explain patient medication adherence over time. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is a new methodological approach that visually describes the dynamics of long-term medication adherence and classifies adherence behavior into groups.

OBJECTIVES

To describe and compare trajectories of medication nonadherence reported in the medical literature, including identifying consistent trends in adherence trajectories and disease and patient characteristics that predict trajectory group membership.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in April 2020 in PubMed and CINAHL using MeSH terms and key words in appropriate combinations. Citations were screened for relevance using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria and evaluated according to variables associated with group-based trajectory models.

RESULTS

21 articles met the study criteria and were reviewed. Generally, studies identified 4 to 6 trajectory groups that described longitudinal medication adherence behavior. Most commonly identified trajectories were labeled as (a) consistent, high adherence, (b) declining adherence, (c) early and consistent nonadherence, and (d) initial nonadherence followed by an increase. Several predictors, including socioeconomic status, disease characteristics, and therapy initiation were routinely associated with group membership.

CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests that adherence trajectories and predictors of specific group membership may be similar across diverse disease states. GBTM describes longitudinal, dynamic patterns of medication adherence that may facilitate the development of targeted interventions to promote adherence. Implications for value-based payment systems are discussed in this review.

DISCLOSURES

No outside funding supported this study. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Real-world on-treatment and initial treatment absolute risk differences for dabigatran vs warfarin in older US adults

PURPOSE

Trials and past observational work compared dabigatran and warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation, but few reported estimates of absolute harm and benefit under real-world adherence patterns, particularly in older adults that may have differing benefit-harm profiles. We aimed to estimate risk differences for ischemic stroke, death, and gastrointestinal bleeding after initiating dabigatran and warfarin in older adults (a) when patients adhere to treatment and (b) under real-world adherence patterns.

METHODS

In a 20% sample of nationwide Medicare claims from 2010 to 2015, we identified beneficiaries aged 66 years and older initiating warfarin and dabigatran. We followed individuals from initiation until death or October 2015 (initial treatment, IT) and separately censored individuals' follow-up after drug switches and gaps in supply (on-treatment, OT). We applied inverse probability of treatment and standardized morbidity ratio weights, as well as inverse probability of censoring weights, to estimate two-year risk differences (RDs) for dabigatran vs warfarin.

RESULTS

We identified 10,717 dabigatran and 74,891 warfarin initiators. Weighted OT RDs suggested decreased ischemic stroke risk for dabigatran vs warfarin; IT RDs indicated increased or no change in ischemic stroke risk. Regardless of follow-up approach and weighting strategy, risk of death appeared lower and risk of gastrointestinal bleeding appeared higher when comparing dabigatran vs warfarin.

CONCLUSIONS

Dabigatran use was associated with lower risks of mortality and ischemic stroke in routine care when older adults stayed on treatment. IT analyses suggested that these benefits may be diminished under real-world patterns of switching and discontinuation.

Latent Classes of Adherence to Oral Anticoagulation Therapy Among Patients With a New Diagnosis of Atrial Fibrillation

Importance

Less than half of US patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) receive oral anticoagulation.

Objectives

To identify patients with similar patterns of adherence to regimens of warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in the first year after AF diagnosis and to evaluate associations between patient characteristics and membership in latent classes of adherence.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used 2013 to 2016 Medicare claims data to identify 7491 patients with a new diagnosis of AF in 2014 to 2015 who initiated warfarin after AF diagnosis and 9478 patients with a new diagnosis of AF in 2014 to 2015 who initiated DOAC treatment after AF diagnosis, for a total of 16 969 Medicare beneficiaries. Participants were followed up for 12 months after AF diagnosis. Statistical analysis was performed from February 1 to November 30, 2018.

Exposures

Treatment with warfarin or DOAC after AF diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was the proportion of days that patients received warfarin or DOAC, measured in 30-day intervals after AF diagnosis. Independent variables included patient demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, region of residence, and clinical characteristics. Latent class mixed models were used to identify latent classes of warfarin and DOAC adherence, and polytomous logistic regression was used to assess the association between patient characteristics and membership in each latent class.

Results

Among the 7491 patients receiving warfarin (4348 women), the mean (SD) age was 76.0 (10.0) years; among the 9478 patients receiving DOAC (5496 women), the mean (SD) age was 77.0 (8.5) years. Four latent classes of patients were identified based on warfarin adherence: late initiators (980 [13%]), early initiators who discontinued therapy at months 1 to 3 (1297 [17%]) or at months 5 to 10 (735 [10%]), and continuously adherent patients (4479 [60%]). Four latent classes of patients were also identified based on DOAC adherence: patients who initiated DOAC in months 1 to 5 (1368 [14%]) or months 6 to 11 (800 [8%]), patients with suboptimal and decreasing adherence (2267 [24%]), and continuously adherent patients (5043 [53%]). Membership in latent classes of warfarin adherence was significantly associated with sex, eligibility for Medicaid and income subsidy, region of residence, CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age 65-74 [1 point] or ≥75 years [2 points], diabetes, and stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism [2 points]-vascular disease, and sex category [female]) risk score, and HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal and liver function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, and drugs or alcohol) score. Membership in latent classes of DOAC adherence was significantly associated with race/ethnicity, region of residence, HAS-BLED score, and use of antiarrhythmic medications.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that, among patients who initiated anticoagulation therapy, 40% of those who initiated warfarin therapy and 47% of those who initiated DOAC treatment did not continuously adhere to therapy in the first year after AF diagnosis. Identifying longitudinal patterns of warfarin and DOAC adherence and the factors associated with them provides suggestions for the design of targeted strategies to mitigate suboptimal oral anticoagulation use.

Trajectories of Oral Anticoagulation Adherence Among Medicare Beneficiaries Newly Diagnosed With Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Only 50% of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients recommended for oral anticoagulation (OAC) use these medications, and less than half of them adhere to OAC. In a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries newly diagnosed with AF, we identified groups of patients with similar trajectories of OAC use and adherence, and evaluated patient characteristics affecting group membership.

Methods and Results

We selected continuously enrolled Medicare Part D beneficiaries with first AF diagnosis in 2014 to 2015 (n=34 898). We calculated the proportion of days covered with OAC over the first 12 months after diagnosis and identified OAC adherence trajectories using group‐based trajectory models. We constructed multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate how demographics, system‐level factors, and clinical characteristics were associated with group membership. We identified 4 trajectories of OAC adherence: patients who never used OAC (43.8%), late OAC initiators (7.6%), early OAC discontinuers (8.9%), and continuously adherent patients (40.1%). Predictors such as sex, black race, residence in the South, or HAS‐BLED score were associated with not only OAC use, but also the timing of initiation and the likelihood of discontinuation. For example, HAS‐BLED score ≥4 was associated with a higher likelihood of not using OAC (odds ratio 1.35; 95% CI, 1.14–1.62), of late initiation (1.55; 95% CI, 1.11–2.05), and of early discontinuation (odds ratio 1.35; 95% CI, 1.01–1.84).

Conclusions

We identified 4 distinct trajectories of OAC adherence after first AF diagnosis, with <45% of newly diagnosed AF patients belonging to the trajectory group characterized by continuous OAC adherence. Trajectories were associated not only with demographic and clinical characteristics but also with regional factors.