Understanding Pathways into Care-homes using Data (UnPiCD study): a two-part model to estimate inpatient and care-home costs using national linked health and social care data

BACKGROUND

Pathways into care-homes have been under-researched. Individuals who move-in to a care-home from hospital are clinically distinct from those moving-in from the community. However, it remains unclear whether the source of care-home admission has any implications in term of costs. Our aim was to quantify hospital and care-home costs for individuals newly moving-in to care homes to compare those moving-in from hospital to those moving-in from the community.

METHODS

Using routinely-collected national social care and health data we constructed a cohort including people moving into care-homes from hospital and community settings between 01/04/2013-31/03/2015 based on records from the Scottish Care-Home Census (SCHC). Individual-level data were obtained from Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR01/04/50) and death records from National Records of Scotland (NRS). Unit costs were identified from NHS Scotland costs data and care-home costs from the SCHC. We used a two-part model to estimate costs conditional on having incurred positive costs. Additional analyses estimated differences in costs for the one-year period preceding and following care-home admission.

RESULTS

We included 14,877 individuals moving-in to a care-home, 8,472 (57%) from hospital, and 6,405 (43%) from the community. Individuals moving-in to care-homes from the community incurred higher costs at £27,117 (95% CI £ 26,641 to £ 27,594) than those moving-in from hospital with £24,426 (95% CI £ 24,037 to £ 24,814). Hospital costs incurred during the year preceding care-home admission were substantially higher (£8,323 (95% CI£8,168 to £8,477) compared to those incurred after moving-in to care-home (£1,670 (95% CI£1,591 to £1,750).

CONCLUSION

Individuals moving-in from hospital and community have different needs, and this is reflected in the difference in costs incurred. The reduction in hospital costs in the year after moving-in to a care-home indicates the positive contribution of care-home residency in supporting those with complex needs. These data provide an important contribution to inform capacity planning on care provision for adults with complex needs and the costs of care provision.

Evaluating the effect of inequalities in oral anti-coagulant prescribing on outcomes in people with atrial fibrillation

Aims

Whilst anti-coagulation is typically recommended for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation (AF), it is often never prescribed or prematurely discontinued. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of inequalities in anti-coagulant prescribing by assessing stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding risk in people with AF who continue anti-coagulation compared with those who stop transiently, permanently, or never start.

Methods and results

This retrospective cohort study utilized linked Scottish healthcare data to identify adults diagnosed with AF between January 2010 and April 2016, with a CHA2DS2-VASC score of ≥2. They were sub-categorized based on anti-coagulant exposure: never started, continuous, discontinuous, and cessation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression and competing risk regression was utilized to compare SSE and bleeding risks between cohorts during 5-year follow-up. Of an overall cohort of 47 427 people, 26 277 (55.41%) were never anti-coagulated, 7934 (16.72%) received continuous anti-coagulation, 9107 (19.2%) temporarily discontinued, and 4109 (8.66%) permanently discontinued. Lower socio-economic status, elevated frailty score, and age ≥ 75 were associated with a reduced likelihood of initiation and continuation of anti-coagulation. Stroke/systemic embolism risk was significantly greater in those with discontinuous anti-coagulation, compared with continuous [subhazard ratio (SHR): 2.65; 2.39-2.94]. In the context of a major bleeding event, there was no significant difference in bleeding risk between the cessation and continuous cohorts (SHR 0.94; 0.42-2.14).

Conclusion

Our data suggest significant inequalities in anti-coagulation prescribing, with substantial opportunity to improve initiation and continuation. Decision-making should be patient-centred and must recognize that discontinuation or cessation is associated with considerable thromboembolic risk not offset by mitigated bleeding risk.

Anticholinergic deprescribing interventions for reducing risk of cognitive decline or dementia in older adults with and without prior cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Anticholinergics are medications that block the action of acetylcholine in the central or peripheral nervous system. Medications with anticholinergic properties are commonly prescribed to older adults. The cumulative anticholinergic effect of all the medications a person takes is referred to as the anticholinergic burden. A high anticholinergic burden may cause cognitive impairment in people who are otherwise cognitively healthy, or cause further cognitive decline in people with pre-existing cognitive problems. Reducing anticholinergic burden through deprescribing interventions may help to prevent onset of cognitive impairment or slow the rate of cognitive decline.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective • To assess the efficacy and safety of anticholinergic medication reduction interventions for improving cognitive outcomes in cognitively healthy older adults and older adults with pre-existing cognitive issues. Secondary Objectives • To compare the effectiveness of different types of reduction interventions (e.g. pharmacist-led versus general practitioner-led, educational versus audit and feedback) for reducing overall anticholinergic burden. • To establish optimal duration of anticholinergic reduction interventions, sustainability, and lessons learnt for upscaling • To compare results according to differing anticholinergic scales used in medication reduction intervention trials • To assess the efficacy of anticholinergic medication reduction interventions for improving other clinical outcomes, including mortality, quality of life, clinical global impression, physical function, institutionalisation, falls, cardiovascular diseases, and neurobehavioral outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL on 22 December 2022, and we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and three other databases from inception to 1 November 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions that aimed to reduce anticholinergic burden in older people and that investigated cognitive outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. The data were not suitable for meta-analysis, so we summarised them narratively. We used GRADE methods to rate our confidence in the review results.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three trials with a total of 299 participants. All three trials were conducted in a cognitively mixed population (some cognitively healthy participants, some participants with dementia). Outcomes were assessed after one to three months. One trial reported significantly improved performance on the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) in the intervention group (treatment difference 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 1.30), although there was no difference between the groups in the proportion of participants with reduced anticholinergic burden. Two trials successfully reduced anticholinergic burden in the intervention group. Of these, one reported no significant difference between the intervention versus control in terms of their effect on cognitive performance measured by the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) immediate recall (mean between-group difference 0.54, 95% CI -0.91 to 2.05), CERAD delayed recall (mean between-group difference -0.23, 95% CI-0.85 to 0.38), CERAD recognition (mean between-group difference 0.77, 95% CI -0.39 to 1.94), and Mini-Mental State Examination (mean between-group difference 0.39, 95% CI -0.96 to 1.75). The other trial reported a significant correlation between anticholinergic burden and a test of working memory after the intervention (which suggested reducing the burden improved performance), but reported no effect on multiple other cognitive measures. In GRADE terms, the results were of very low certainty. There were no reported between-group differences for any other clinical outcome we investigated. It was not possible to investigate differences according to type of reduction intervention or type of anticholinergic scale, to measure the sustainability of interventions, or to establish lessons learnt for upscaling. No trials investigated safety outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to reach any conclusions on the effects of anticholinergic burden reduction interventions on cognitive outcomes in older adults with or without prior cognitive impairment. The evidence from RCTs was of very low certainty so cannot support or refute the hypothesis that actively reducing or stopping prescription of medications with anticholinergic properties can improve cognitive outcomes in older people. There is no evidence from RCTs that anticholinergic burden reduction interventions improve other clinical outcomes such as mortality, quality of life, clinical global impression, physical function, institutionalisation, falls, cardiovascular diseases, or neurobehavioral outcomes. Larger RCTs investigating long-term outcomes are needed. Future RCTs should also investigate potential benefits of anticholinergic reduction interventions in cognitively healthy populations and cognitively impaired populations separately.

Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) for the diagnosis of delirium in adults in critical care settings

BACKGROUND

Delirium is an underdiagnosed clinical syndrome typified by an acute alteration of mental state. It is an important problem in critical care and intensive care units (ICU) due to its high prevalence and its association with adverse outcomes. Delirium is a very distressing condition for patients, with a huge impact on their well-being. Diagnosis of delirium in the critical care setting is challenging. This is especially true for patients who are mechanically ventilated and are therefore unable to engage in a verbal interview. The Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) is a tool specifically designed to assess for delirium in the context of ICU patients, including those on mechanical ventilation. CAM-ICU can be administered by non-specialists to give a dichotomous delirium present/absent result.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the CAM-ICU for the diagnosis of delirium in adult patients in critical care units.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (Ovid SP, 1946 to 8 July 2022), Embase (Ovid SP, 1982 to 8 July 2022), Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Knowledge, 1945 to 8 July 2022), PsycINFO (Ovid SP, 1806 to 8 July 2022), and LILACS (BIREME, 1982 to 8 July 2022). We checked the reference lists of included studies and other resources for additional potentially relevant studies. We also searched the Health Technology Assessment database, the Cochrane Library, Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility database, WHO ICTRP, ClinicalTrials.gov, and websites of scientific associations to access any annual meetings and abstracts of conference proceedings in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included diagnostic studies enrolling adult ICU patients assessed using the CAM-ICU tool, regardless of language or publication status and reporting sufficient data on delirium diagnosis for the construction of 2 x 2 tables. Eligible studies evaluated the diagnostic performance of the CAM-ICU versus a clinical reference standard based on any iteration of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) criteria applied by a clinical expert.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected and collated study data. We assessed the methodological quality of studies using the QUADAS-2 tool. We used two univariate fixed-effect or random-effects models to determine summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity. We performed sensitivity analyses that excluded studies considered to be at high risk of bias and high concerns in applicability, due mainly to the target population included (e.g. patients with traumatic brain injury). We also investigated potential sources of heterogeneity, assessing the effect of reference standard diagnosis and proportion of patients ventilated.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 25 studies (2817 participants). The mean age of participants ranged from 48 to 69 years; 15 of the studies included critical care units admitting mixed populations (e.g. medical, trauma, surgery patients). The percentage of patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged from 11.8% to 100%. The prevalence of delirium in the studies included ranged from 12.5% to 83.9%. Presence of delirium was determined by the application of DSM-IV criteria in 13 out of 25 included studies. We assessed 13 studies as at low risk of bias and low applicability concerns for all QUADAS-2 domains. The most common issue of concern was flow and timing of the tests, followed by patient selection. Overall, we estimated a pooled sensitivity of 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.83) and a pooled specificity of 0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.97). Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies at low risk of bias and without any applicability concerns (n = 13 studies) gave similar summary accuracy indices (sensitivity 0.80 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.86), specificity 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.97)). Subgroup analyses based on diagnostic assessment found summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity for studies using DSM-IV of 0.79 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.85) and 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96). For studies that used DSM-5 criteria, summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.82) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.95 to 0.99). DSM criteria had no significant effect on sensitivity (P = 0.421), but the specificity for detection of delirium was higher when DSM-5 criteria were used (P = 0.024). The relative specificity comparing DSM-5 versus DSM-IV criteria was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08). Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity for studies recruiting < 100% of patients with mechanical ventilation were 0.81 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.85) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.98). For studies that exclusively recruited patients with mechanical ventilation, summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were 0.91 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.97) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.99). Although there was a suggestion of differential performance of CAM-ICU in ventilated patients, the differences were not significant in sensitivity (P = 0.316) or in specificity (P = 0.493).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The CAM-ICU tool may have a role in the early identification of delirium, in adult patients hospitalized in intensive care units, including those on mechanical ventilation, when non-specialized, properly trained clinical personnel apply the CAM-ICU. The test is most useful for exclusion of delirium. The test may miss a proportion of patients with incident delirium, therefore in situations where detection of all delirium cases is desirable, it may be best to repeat the test or combine CAM-ICU with another assessment. Future studies should compare different screening tests proposed for bedside assessment of delirium, as this approach will reveal which tool yields superior accuracy. In addition, future studies should consider and report the flow and timing of the tests and clearly report key characteristics related to patient selection. Finally, future research should focus on the impact of CAM-ICU screening on patient outcomes.

Patterns of Recurrence for Lymph Node Positive Cutaneous Melanoma in the Era of Immunotherapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The management of patients with lymph node positive, nonmetastatic cutaneous melanoma has changed significantly with the adoption of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. We compared clinical outcomes and patterns of recurrence of patients with lymph node positive, nonmetastatic cutaneous melanoma who received adjuvant immunotherapy with those who did not receive immunotherapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Patients with lymph node or in-transit metastasis positive, nonmetastatic cutaneous melanoma diagnosed from 2013-2020 were identified from a prospectively-maintained, single-institution database. Baseline patient demographics and treatment details were recorded. Patients were stratified by receipt of adjuvant immunotherapy. Local and regional recurrence, distant metastasis, first site of recurrence, and overall survival (OS) were recorded, and rates of OS, progression-free survival (PFS), freedom from distant metastasis (ffDM), local recurrence (ffLR), and regional lymph node recurrence (ffRR) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Fisher's exact test, and chi-square test of independence were used to analyze variables between groups.

RESULTS

Ninety-two patients were included with a median age of 67 years and a median follow-up of 2.9 years. Fifty-six (61%) patients received adjuvant immunotherapy for a median duration of 8.5 months. Fifty-three (58%) patients had a sentinel lymph node dissection alone while thirty-two (35%) had a complete regional lymph node dissection. A median of 3 lymph nodes were removed (range 0-83) with a median of 1 positive lymph node (range 1-15). Twenty-four (26%) patients had extranodal extension, thirty-nine (42%) had ulceration of the primary site, and twenty-eight (30%) had LVSI present. Median age of patients receiving immunotherapy versus those who did not was 63 years versus 72 years (p = 0.02). There were no differences in primary site, disease thickness, Clark stage, primary site ulceration, LVSI, extranodal extension, satellite metastasis, AJCC T- and N-stage, and completion lymph node dissection rates between the groups. Patients receiving immunotherapy had significantly improved OS (HR = 0.3, p = 0.001) with no difference in PFS (HR = 0.6, p = 0.08), ffDM (HR = 0.66, p = 0.28), ffLR (HR = 0.18, p = 0.1), and ffRR (HR = 2.5, p = 0.08). The initial site of recurrence was regional lymph nodes in thirteen (23%) patients receiving immunotherapy versus two (6%) patients who did not receive immunotherapy (p = 0.01). On UVA, male gender, number of positive lymph nodes, clinically positive lymph nodes, extranodal extension, in-transit metastasis, LVSI, and tumor thickness were significant predictors of regional lymph node recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Patients with lymph node positive cutaneous melanoma receiving immunotherapy had a higher rate of initial disease progression in the regional lymph nodes compared with patients not receiving immunotherapy.

Near-Surface Dose Avoidance in Patients with Implant-Based Reconstruction Receiving Post-Mastectomy Proton Irradiation

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Dose to the near-surface region may contribute to toxic effects and breast reconstruction complications in patients receiving post-mastectomy irradiation. Here we report the acute and chronic toxic effects in patients with implant-based reconstruction receiving post-mastectomy proton irradiation with prospective near-surface dose avoidance.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We reviewed the charts of patients with breast cancer who underwent a mastectomy with implant-based reconstruction and a first course of pencil beam scanning proton irradiation at a single institution from 2017-2022. Patients were evaluated weekly on-treatment, 3- and 12-months post-completion, and then annually. Baseline demographics, treatment details, acute and chronic toxicities (CTCAE v.4), unplanned reconstructive surgery, and implant failure were recorded. Inverse probability weighting was used to generate a balanced cohort receiving post-mastectomy photon irradiation. Logistic regression was used for comparison.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients with implant reconstruction at the time of treatment completed proton irradiation with a median follow up of 1.6 years. Nine (56%) underwent direct-to-permanent implant reconstruction and seven (44%) underwent two-stage reconstruction via tissue expander; of these, five (71%) completed permanent implant exchange prior to irradiation. Implant placement was pre-pectoral in twelve (75%). All patients received a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions; fifteen (94%) received a sequential boost to the mastectomy scar of a median 10 Gy. Fifteen (94%) used a near-surface contour (bound by the chest wall CTV, the skin surface, and the skin-3mm contour) for plan optimization to avoid dose to the near-surface region with a median value of the mean dose of 46.8 Gy. Acute grade > 2 radiation dermatitis was present in thirteen (81%) patients. Two (13%) experienced moist desquamation and ten (63%) experienced grade > 2 chest wall pain. Three (19%) underwent unplanned reconstructive surgery at a median time of 1.6 years post-treatment: all were capsulectomies due to capsular contracture. One (6%) patient experienced implant failure. A matched cohort of 59 patients who received photon irradiation was identified with a weighted median follow up of 2.5 years. The cohorts were similar with respect to rates of grade ≥2 radiation dermatitis, grade ≥2 chest wall pain, and unplanned reconstructive surgery. Proton irradiation resulted in statistically significant decreases in rates of moist desquamation (OR 0.01, 95% CI 0.0002-0.182) and implant failure (OR 0.01, 95% CI 0.0001-0.997).

CONCLUSION

Post-mastectomy proton irradiation with prospective avoidance of the near-surface region in patients with implant-based reconstruction is feasible and well-tolerated; it results in low rates of unplanned reconstructive surgery and implant failure.

Posterior Neck Coverage in Patients Receiving Regional Nodal Irradiation for Breast Cancer

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Patterns-of-failure studies suggest the posterior neck (PN) may harbor microscopic disease in patients with locally advanced breast cancer. We compared target coverage, lung dose, and toxic effects in patients treated with either an anterior oblique field (AO) or opposed oblique fields (OO) to address the superior axillary and supraclavicular nodal (SCV) regions.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We identified 119 consecutively treated patients who received regional nodal irradiation, including a "third field," to address the superior axillary and supraclavicular nodal regions with a monoisocentric technique in our institution. Coverage of the axillary clinical target volume (CTV), SCV CTV and PN CTV was determined based on the delivered treatment plan. Wilcoxon rank-sum test and Fisher's exact test were used to compare coverage of the axillary, SCV, and PN CTVs, lung dosimetry, and toxic effects (graded by the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v4.0) between patients receiving an AO or OO.

RESULTS

There were 29 patients in the AO group and 80 in the OO group. All patients in the AO group received conventionally fractionated radiation versus 61% in the OO group. Modestly hypofractionated plans were delivered to 39% of the OO group. The body mass index and anterior-posterior separation at the matchline (measured at the center of the carotid artery) were similar in both groups. The median volume (%) of the SCV CTV receiving at least 90% of the prescription dose (V90%) was 91% (85, 99) in the AO group and 93% (91, 95) in the OO group (P = 0.2). The median V90% of the PN CTV was 30% (12, 49) in the AO group and 100% (100, 100) in the OO group (P<0.001). The median V90% in the axillary levels I, II and III CTVs were 98%, 95% and 90%, respectively, in the AO group and all 100% in the OO group (P<0.001). Maximum dose and heterogeneity in the SCV CTV were similar in both groups. Including only patients who received conventionally fractionated plans, the mean lung dose (cGy) was 1216 in the AO group and 1328 in the OO group (P = 0045). The lung V5 Gy, V10 Gy and V20 Gy were similar in both groups. Ipsilateral upper extremity lymphedema (all grade 1) was 3.4% in the AO group and 2.5% in the OO group (p>0.9). Moist desquamation in the neck was 0% in the AO group and 1.2% in the OO group (p>0.9). Pneumonitis (all grade 1) was 0% in the AO group and 1.2% in the OO group (p>0.9).

CONCLUSION

Compared to a single anterior field, opposed oblique fields provide superior axillary and posterior neck coverage without increasing toxicity.

Comparing Patient Reported Satisfaction Following Telehealth and In-Person Medical Encounters

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Telehealth patient encounters can increase access to healthcare and allow for its provision in a safe manner during pandemics. Telehealth is particularly important for oncology patients who might be at risk of severe infections during potential periodic increases of COVID-19 infections. There is a lack of studies examining the impact of telemedicine on quality of care. Herein, we report our recent institutional experience with patient reported satisfaction and engagement during telehealth encounters.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Following each medical encounter in our radiation oncology department, patients are invited to complete a National Research Corporation (NRC) survey rating their satisfaction. We retrospectively analyzed the available survey results for patients who had a medical encounter between March 2020 and January 2022 at any of the four radiation oncology facilities within our institution. We examined patient responses to four questions including "provider would recommend" and "facility would recommend", both rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 indicating the highest likelihood. The other two questions included "had enough input" into care, and "good communication with staff", both rated on a Likert scale from 1 to 4 (1 as "No", 2 as "Yes, somewhat", 3 as "Yes, mostly", 4 as "Yes, definitely"). We dichotomized the results for each question as favorable or unfavorable, with favorable being a score ≥9 for the first two questions, or ≥3 for the remaining questions. We used univariate (UVA) and multivariable (MVA) logistic regression analyses to compare telehealth and in-person encounters. Odds ratio (OR) were calculated for each question.

RESULTS

We collected 5,672 surveys, of which 1,027 (18%) were for telehealth encounters. For all four of the examined categories in the survey, patients reported less satisfaction following telehealth visits compared to in-person visits in UVA and MVA logistic regression analyses. For MVA, we included type of encounter, patient age, patient race, patient sex, facility location, type of insurance, and year of visit. The MVA OR of a patient reporting < 9 for a telehealth compared to an in-person encounter were 1.46 ((95% CI 1.1-1.9, P 0.007) for "had enough input" into care, 1.46 (95% CI 1.1-1.9, P 0.007) for "good communication with staff", 1.43 (95% CI 1.1-1.86, P 0.007) for "facility would recommend", and 1.57 (95% CI 0.92-2.59, P 0.08) for provider would recommend.

CONCLUSION

In this retrospective analysis, we found that patients were less likely to report high satisfaction with telehealth compared to in-person encounters. Further research is needed to address potential limitations of telemedicine encounters to increase access to health, particularly for patients at risk of severe infections, without compromising overall quality of care.

The Effect of Long Chain n-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Muscle Strength in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The main objective of the current study was to perform a systematic literature review with the purpose of exploring the impact of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (LCn-3 PUFA) relative to control oil supplementation on muscle strength, with secondary outcomes of muscle mass and physical function in older individuals under conditions of habitual physical activity/exercise. The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021267011) and followed the guidelines outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. The search for relevant studies was performed utilizing databases such as PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to June 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in older adults comparing the effects of LCn-3 PUFA with a control oil supplement on muscle strength were included. Five studies involving a total of 488 participants (348 females and 140 males) were identified that met the specified inclusion criteria and were included. Upon analyzing the collective data from these studies, it was observed that supplementation with LCn-3 PUFA did not have a significant impact on grip strength (standardized mean difference (SMD) 0.61, 95% confidence interval [-0.05, 1.27]; p = 0.07) in comparison to the control group. However, there was a considerable level of heterogeneity among the studies (I2 = 90%; p < 0.001). As secondary outcomes were only measured in a few studies, with significant heterogeneity in methods, meta-analyses of muscle mass and functional abilities were not performed. Papers with measures of knee extensor muscle mass as an outcome (n = 3) found increases with LCn-3 PUFA supplementation, but studies measuring whole body lean/muscle mass (n = 2) and functional abilities (n = 4) reported mixed results. With a limited number of studies, our data indicate that LCn-3 PUFA supplementation has no effect on muscle strength or functional abilities in older adults but may increase muscle mass, although, with only a few studies and considerable heterogeneity, further work is needed to confirm these findings.

Frailty in randomised controlled trials for dementia or mild cognitive impairment measured via the frailty index: prevalence and prediction of serious adverse events and attrition

BACKGROUND

Frailty and dementia have a bidirectional relationship. However, frailty is rarely reported in clinical trials for dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) which limits assessment of trial applicability. This study aimed to use a frailty index (FI)-a cumulative deficit model of frailty-to measure frailty using individual participant data (IPD) from clinical trials for MCI and dementia. Moreover, the study aimed to quantify the prevalence of frailty and its association with serious adverse events (SAEs) and trial attrition.

METHODS

We analysed IPD from dementia (n = 1) and MCI (n = 2) trials. An FI comprising physical deficits was created for each trial using baseline IPD. Poisson and logistic regression were used to examine associations with SAEs and attrition, respectively. Estimates were pooled in random effects meta-analysis. Analyses were repeated using an FI incorporating cognitive as well as physical deficits, and results compared.

RESULTS

Frailty could be estimated in all trial participants. The mean physical FI was 0.14 (SD 0.06) and 0.14 (SD 0.06) in the MCI trials and 0.24 (SD 0.08) in the dementia trial. Frailty prevalence (FI > 0.24) was 6.9%/7.6% in MCI trials and 48.6% in the dementia trial. After including cognitive deficits, the prevalence was similar in MCI (6.1% and 6.7%) but higher in dementia (75.4%). The 99th percentile of FI (0.31 and 0.30 in MCI, 0.44 in dementia) was lower than in most general population studies. Frailty was associated with SAEs: physical FI IRR = 1.60 [1.40, 1.82]; physical/cognitive FI IRR = 1.64 [1.42, 1.88]. In a meta-analysis of all three trials, the estimated association between frailty and trial attrition included the null (physical FI OR = 1.17 [0.92, 1.48]; physical/cognitive FI OR = 1.16 [0.92, 1.46]), although higher frailty index values were associated with attrition in the dementia trial.

CONCLUSION

Measuring frailty from baseline IPD in dementia and MCI trials is feasible. Those living with more severe frailty may be under-represented. Frailty is associated with SAEs. Including only physical deficits may underestimate frailty in dementia. Frailty can and should be measured in future and existing trials for dementia and MCI, and efforts should be made to facilitate inclusion of people living with frailty.

Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia

BACKGROUND

Dementia, a global health priority, has no current cure. Around 50 million people worldwide currently live with dementia, and this number is expected to treble by 2050. Some health conditions and lifestyle behaviours can increase or decrease the risk of dementia and are known as 'predictors'. Prognostic models combine such predictors to measure the risk of future dementia. Models that can accurately predict future dementia would help clinicians select high-risk adults in middle age and implement targeted risk reduction.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to identify multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults (aged 45 to 65 years) for predicting dementia or cognitive impairment. Eligible multi-domain prognostic models involved two or more of the modifiable dementia predictors identified in a 2020 Lancet Commission report and a 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) report (less education, hearing loss, traumatic brain injury, hypertension, excessive alcohol intake, obesity, smoking, depression, social isolation, physical inactivity, diabetes mellitus, air pollution, poor diet, and cognitive inactivity). Our secondary objectives were to summarise the prognostic models, to appraise their predictive accuracy (discrimination and calibration) as reported in the development and validation studies, and to identify the implications of using dementia prognostic models for the management of people at a higher risk for future dementia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and ISI Web of Science Core Collection from inception until 6 June 2022. We performed forwards and backwards citation tracking of included studies using the Web of Science platform.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included development and validation studies of multi-domain prognostic models. The minimum eligible follow-up was five years. Our primary outcome was an incident clinical diagnosis of dementia based on validated diagnostic criteria, and our secondary outcome was dementia or cognitive impairment determined by any other method.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened the references, extracted data using a template based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), and assessed risk of bias and applicability of included studies using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). We synthesised the C-statistics of models that had been externally validated in at least three comparable studies.  MAIN RESULTS: We identified 20 eligible studies; eight were development studies and 12 were validation studies. There were 14 unique prognostic models: seven models with validation studies and seven models with development-only studies. The models included a median of nine predictors (range 6 to 34); the median number of modifiable predictors was five (range 2 to 11). The most common modifiable predictors in externally validated models were diabetes, hypertension, smoking, physical activity, and obesity. In development-only models, the most common modifiable predictors were obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking. No models included hearing loss or air pollution as predictors. Nineteen studies had a high risk of bias according to the PROBAST assessment, mainly because of inappropriate analysis methods, particularly lack of reported calibration measures. Applicability concerns were low for 12 studies, as their population, predictors, and outcomes were consistent with those of interest for this review. Applicability concerns were high for nine studies, as they lacked baseline cognitive screening or excluded an age group within the range of 45 to 65 years. Only one model, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Ageing, and Dementia (CAIDE), had been externally validated in multiple studies, allowing for meta-analysis. The CAIDE model included eight predictors (four modifiable predictors): age, education, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, physical activity and APOEƐ4 status. Overall, our confidence in the prediction accuracy of CAIDE was very low; our main reasons for downgrading the certainty of the evidence were high risk of bias across all the studies, high concern of applicability, non-overlapping confidence intervals (CIs), and a high degree of heterogeneity. The summary C-statistic was 0.71 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.76; 3 studies; very low-certainty evidence) for the incident clinical diagnosis of dementia, and 0.67 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.73; 3 studies; very low-certainty evidence) for dementia or cognitive impairment based on cognitive scores. Meta-analysis of calibration measures was not possible, as few studies provided these data.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We identified 14 unique multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults for predicting subsequent dementia. Diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking were the most common modifiable risk factors used as predictors in the models. We performed meta-analyses of C-statistics for one model (CAIDE), but the summary values were unreliable. Owing to lack of data, we were unable to meta-analyse the calibration measures of CAIDE. This review highlights the need for further robust external validations of multi-domain prognostic models for predicting future risk of dementia in middle-aged adults.

MetaBayesDTA: codeless Bayesian meta-analysis of test accuracy, with or without a gold standard

BACKGROUND

The statistical models developed for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies require specialised knowledge to implement. This is especially true since recent guidelines, such as those in Version 2 of the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews of Diagnostic Test Accuracy, advocate more sophisticated methods than previously. This paper describes a web-based application - MetaBayesDTA - that makes many advanced analysis methods in this area more accessible.

RESULTS

We created the app using R, the Shiny package and Stan. It allows for a broad array of analyses based on the bivariate model including extensions for subgroup analysis, meta-regression and comparative test accuracy evaluation. It also conducts analyses not assuming a perfect reference standard, including allowing for the use of different reference tests.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to its user-friendliness and broad array of features, MetaBayesDTA should appeal to researchers with varying levels of expertise. We anticipate that the application will encourage higher levels of uptake of more advanced methods, which ultimately should improve the quality of test accuracy reviews.

Three-Fraction Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) Delivered With Interstitial Brachytherapy Is Safe: First Results From the Tri-fraction Radiation Therapy Used to Minimize Patient Hospital Trips (TRIUMPH-T) Trial

PURPOSE

Shorter courses of breast radiotherapy are offered as an alternative to 4 weeks of whole-breast irradiation after lumpectomy, including brachytherapy. A prospective phase 2multi-institution clinical trial to study 3-fraction accelerated partial breast irradiation delivered by brachytherapy was conducted.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The trial treated selected breast cancers after breast-conserving surgery with brachytherapy applicators that delivered 22.5 Gy in 3 fractions of 7.5 Gy. The planning treatment volume was 1 to 2 cm beyond the surgical cavity. Eligible women were age ≥45 years with unicentric invasive or in situ tumors ≤3 cm excised with negative margins and with positive estrogen or progesterone receptors and no metastases to axillary nodes. Strict dosimetric parameters were required to be met and follow up information was collected from the participating sites.

RESULTS

Two hundred patients were prospectively enrolled; however, a total of 185 patients who were enrolled were followed for a median of 3.63 years. Three-fraction brachytherapy was associated with low chronic toxicity. There was excellent or good cosmesis in 94% of patients. There were no grade 4 toxicities. Grade 3 fibrosis at the treatment site was present in 1.7% and 32% percent had grades 1 or 2 fibrosis at the treatment site. There was 1 rib fracture. Other late toxicities included 7.4% grade 1 hyperpigmentation, 2% grade 1 telangiectasias, 1.7% symptomatic seromas, 1.7% abscessed cavities, and 1.1% symptomatic fat necrosis. There were 2 (1.1%) ipsilateral local recurrences, 2 (1.1%) nodal recurrences and no distant recurrences. Other incidents included one contralateral breast cancer and 2 second malignancies (lung).

CONCLUSIONS

Ultra-short breast brachytherapy is feasible and has excellent toxicity and could be an alternative to standard 5-day, 10 fraction accelerated partial breast irradiation in eligible patients. Patients from this prospective trial will continue to be followed to evaluate long-term outcomes.

1344 UNDERSTANDING PATHWAYS INTO CARE HOMES USING DATA (THE UNPICD STUDY)

Introduction

Moving into a care home is a significant, life-changing experience which occurs to address care needs which cannot be supported elsewhere. UK health policy recommends against moving into a care home from the acute hospital. However, this occurs in practice. Better understanding pathways into care homes could improve support for individuals and families, service planning and policymaking. Our aim was to characterise individuals who move-in to a care home from hospital and those moving-in from the community, identifying factors associated with moving-in from hospital.

Method

A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted involving adults moving into care homes in Scotland between 1/3/13-31/3/16 using the Scottish Care Home Census (SCHC), a national individual-level social care dataset. SCHC data were linked to routine data sources including hospital admissions, community prescribing and mortality. The data were split into those moving-in from hospital and those moving-in from the community. Descriptive statistics characterising the two groups were generated and multivariate regression undertaken to identify factors associated with moving-in from hospital.

Results

A total of 23,892 individuals were included in the analysis, of whom 13,564 (56.8%) moved-in from hospital. A third came directly from an acute hospital, with 57.7% from rehabilitation or community hospitals and 7.1% from inpatient psychiatry. Being male, receiving nursing care, high frailty risk, increasing numbers of hospital admissions and diagnoses of any fracture or stroke in the six months before moving-into the care home were all significant predictors of moving-in from hospital.

Conclusions

The population moving-in to care homes from hospital are clinical distinct from those moving-in from the community. National cross-sectoral data linkage of health and social care data is feasible, but the available data are dominated by health characteristics. There is an urgent need to operationalise other meaningful variables which shape care pathways to enhance understanding and evidence.

1223 IDENTIFYING SCOTLAND'S CARE HOME POPULATION LIVING WITH DEMENTIA - IS DATA LINKAGE USEFUL?

Background

People living with dementia are more likely to move into care homes. The true prevalence of dementia among care home residents in Scotland is not known. People living with dementia often interact with multiple social and healthcare services, thus routine data may offer a way to enhance understanding.

Aim

To compare national health and social care data sources recording dementia status for Scottish care home residents.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of adult (≥ 18 years) care home residents in Scotland during financial years 2012/13 and 2013/14. An indexing process linked data from the Scottish Care Home Census (SCHC) to Community Health Index numbers to allow linkage to healthcare datasets. Anonymised individual data was accessed in a secure environment, within the National Safe Haven. A linked dataset with acute/general and psychiatric hospitalisations (SMR01, SMR04), prescriptions (Prescribing Information System), Scottish Patients at Risk of Admission and Readmission (SPARRA) data, and National Records of Scotland (NRS) mortality records was analysed. Dementia recording was studied across these datasets.

Results

In 2012/13 and 2013/14, 31,589 and 31,504 care home residents were included for analysis. In 2012/13, 17,548 (55.5%) had dementia according to SCHC. PIS and SMR01 confirm 4,701 (26.8%) and 4,254 (24.3%) SCHC dementia records, respectively. SMR04 and SPARRA confirm 1,830 (10.4%) and 964 (5.5%). Among 2012/13 residents, 19,593 (62.0%) have at least one dementia record across datasets. Of these, 10,445 (53.3%) have one record – 83.9% SCHC records, 7.3% SMR01 records, and 5.0% PIS records. Of 15,781 residents who die within 5 years from 2012/13, 6,984 (44.3%) have death records confirming dementia. Results for 2013/14 are similar.

Conclusion

Routine data enhances dementia ascertainment amongst care home residents, with most confirmation from general hospitalisations and prescriptions. Primary care data and analysis of more financial years would enable further exploration of dementia recording patterns.

Protocol for a randomised controlled trial to investigate the effects of vitamin K2 on recovery from muscle-damaging resistance exercise in young and older adults-the TAKEOVER study

BACKGROUND

Regular participation in resistance exercise is known to have broad-ranging health benefits and for this reason is prominent in the current physical activity guidelines. Recovery after such exercise is important for several populations across the age range and nutritional strategies to enhance recovery and modulate post-exercise physiological processes are widely studied, yet effective strategies remain elusive. Vitamin K2 supplementation has emerged as a potential candidate, and the aim of the current study, therefore, is to test the hypothesis that vitamin K2 supplementation can accelerate recovery, via modulation of the underlying physiological processes, following a bout of resistance exercise in young and older adults.

METHODS

The current study is a two-arm randomised controlled trial which will be conducted in 80 (40 young (≤40 years) and 40 older (≥65 years)) adults to compare post-exercise recovery in those supplemented with vitamin K2 or placebo for a 12-week period. The primary outcome is muscle strength with secondary outcomes including pain-free range of motion, functional abilities, surface electromyography (sEMG) and markers of inflammation and oxidative stress.

DISCUSSION

Ethical approval has been granted by the College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences Ethical Committee at the University of Glasgow (Project No 200190189) and recruitment is ongoing. Study findings will be disseminated through a presentation at scientific conferences and in scientific journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicialTrials.gov NCT04676958. Prospectively registered on 21 December 2020.

Anticholinergic deprescribing interventions for reducing risk of cognitive decline or dementia in older adults with and without prior cognitive impairment

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:

Meta-analysis of dichotomous and ordinal tests with an imperfect gold standard

Standard methods for the meta-analysis of medical tests, without assuming a gold standard, are limited to dichotomous data. Multivariate probit models are used to analyse correlated dichotomous data, and can be extended to model ordinal data. Within the context of an imperfect gold standard, they have previously been used for the analysis of dichotomous and ordinal test data from a single study, and for the meta-analysis of dichotomous tests. However, they have not previously been used for the meta-analysis of ordinal tests. In this article, we developed a Bayesian multivariate probit latent class model for the simultaneous meta-analysis of ordinal and dichotomous tests without assuming a gold standard, which also allows one to obtain summary estimates of joint test accuracy. We fitted the models using the software Stan, which uses a state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, and we applied the models to a dataset in which studies evaluated the accuracy of tests, and test combinations, for deep vein thrombosis. We demonstrate the issues with dichotomising ordinal test accuracy data in the presence of an imperfect gold standard, before applying and comparing several variations of our proposed model which do not require the data to be dichotomised. The models proposed will allow researchers to more appropriately meta-analyse ordinal and dichotomous tests without a gold standard, potentially leading to less biased estimates of test accuracy. This may lead to a better understanding of which tests, and test combinations, should be used for any given medical condition.

Anticholinergic burden for prediction of cognitive decline or neuropsychiatric symptoms in older adults with mild cognitive impairment or dementia

BACKGROUND

Medications with anticholinergic properties are commonly prescribed to older adults with a pre-existing diagnosis of dementia or cognitive impairment. The cumulative anticholinergic effect of all the medications a person takes is referred to as the anticholinergic burden because of its potential to cause adverse effects. It is possible that a high anticholinergic burden may be a risk factor for further cognitive decline or neuropsychiatric disturbances in people with dementia. Neuropsychiatric disturbances are the most frequent complication of dementia that require hospitalisation, accounting for almost half of admissions; hence, identification of modifiable prognostic factors for these outcomes is crucial. There are various scales available to measure anticholinergic burden but agreement between them is often poor.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to assess whether anticholinergic burden, as defined at the level of each individual scale, was a prognostic factor for further cognitive decline or neuropsychiatric disturbances in older adults with pre-existing diagnoses of dementia or cognitive impairment. Our secondary objective was to investigate whether anticholinergic burden was a prognostic factor for other adverse clinical outcomes, including mortality, impaired physical function, and institutionalisation.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched these databases from inception to 29 November 2021: MEDLINE OvidSP, Embase OvidSP, PsycINFO OvidSP, CINAHL EBSCOhost, and ISI Web of Science Core Collection on ISI Web of Science.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case-control observational studies, with a minimum of one-month follow-up, which examined the association between an anticholinergic burden measurement scale and the above stated adverse clinical outcomes, in older adults with pre-existing diagnoses of dementia or cognitive impairment.   DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, and undertook data extraction, risk of bias assessment, and GRADE assessment. We summarised risk associations between anticholinergic burden and all clinical outcomes in a narrative fashion. We also evaluated the risk association between anticholinergic burden and mortality using a random-effects meta-analysis.  We established adjusted pooled rates for the anticholinergic cognitive burden (ACB) scale; then, as an exploratory analysis, established pooled rates on the prespecified association across scales.  MAIN RESULTS: We identified 18 studies that met our inclusion criteria (102,684 older adults). Anticholinergic burden was measured using five distinct measurement scales: 12 studies used the ACB scale; 3 studies used the Anticholinergic Risk Scale (ARS); 1 study used the Anticholinergic Drug Scale (ADS); 1 study used the Anticholinergic Effect on Cognition (AEC) Scale; and 2 studies used a list developed by Tune and Egeli.  Risk associations between anticholinergic burden and adverse clinical outcomes were highly heterogenous. Four out of 10 (40%) studies reported a significantly increased risk of greater long-term cognitive decline for participants with an anticholinergic burden compared to participants with no or minimal anticholinergic burden. No studies investigated neuropsychiatric disturbance outcomes. One out of four studies (25%) reported a significant association with reduced physical function for participants with an anticholinergic burden versus participants with no or minimal anticholinergic burden. No study (out of one investigating study) reported a significant association between anticholinergic burden and risk of institutionalisation. Six out of 10 studies (60%) found a significantly increased risk of mortality for those with an anticholinergic burden compared to those with no or minimal anticholinergic burden. Pooled analysis of adjusted mortality hazard ratios (HR) measured anticholinergic burden with the ACB scale, and suggested a significantly increased risk of death for those with a high ACB score relative to those with no or minimal ACB scores (HR 1.153, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.030 to 1.292; 4 studies, 48,663 participants). An exploratory pooled analysis of adjusted mortality HRs across anticholinergic burden scales also suggested a significantly increased risk of death for those with a high anticholinergic burden (HR 1.102, 95% CI 1.044 to 1.163; 6 studies, 68,381 participants).   Overall GRADE evaluation of results found low- or very low-certainty evidence for all outcomes.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is low-certainty evidence that older adults with dementia or cognitive impairment who have a significant anticholinergic burden may be at increased risk of death. No firm conclusions can be drawn for risk of accelerated cognitive decline, neuropsychiatric disturbances, decline in physical function, or institutionalisation.

Antithrombotic therapy to prevent cognitive decline in people with small vessel disease on neuroimaging but without dementia

BACKGROUND

Cerebral small vessel disease is a progressive disease of the brain's deep perforating blood vessels. It is usually diagnosed based on lesions seen on brain imaging. Cerebral small vessel disease is a common cause of stroke but can also cause a progressive cognitive decline. As antithrombotic therapy is an established treatment for stroke prevention, we sought to determine whether antithrombotic therapy might also be effective in preventing cognitive decline in people with small vessel disease.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of antithrombotic therapy for prevention of cognitive decline in people with small vessel disease on neuroimaging but without dementia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Review Group's Specialised Register, and the Cochrane Stroke Group's Specialised Register; the most recent search was on 21 July 2021. We also searched MEDLINE, Embase, four other databases and two trials registries. We searched the reference lists of the articles retrieved from these searches. As trials with a stroke focus may include relevant subgroup data, we complemented these searches with a focussed search of all antithrombotic titles in the Cochrane Stroke Group database.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCT) of people with neuroimaging evidence of at least mild cerebral small vessel disease (defined here as white matter hyperintensities, lacunes of presumed vascular origin and subcortical infarcts) but with no evidence of dementia. The trials had to compare antithrombotic therapy of minimum 24 weeks' duration to no antithrombotic therapy (either placebo or treatment as usual), or compare different antithrombotic treatment regimens. Antithrombotic therapy could include antiplatelet agents (as monotherapy or combination therapy), anticoagulants or a combination.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened all the titles identified by the searches. We assessed full texts for eligibility for inclusion according to our prespecified selection criteria, extracted data to a proforma and assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool for RCTs. We evaluated the certainty of evidence using GRADE. Due to heterogeneity across included participants, interventions and outcomes of eligible trials, it was not possible to perform meta-analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three RCTs (3384 participants). One study investigated the effect of antithrombotic therapy in participants not yet on antithrombotic therapy; two studies investigated the effect of additional antithrombotic therapy, one in a population already taking a single antithrombotic agent and one in a mixed population (participants on an antithrombotic drug and antithrombotic-naive participants). Intervention and follow-up durations varied from 24 weeks to four years. Jia 2016 was a placebo-controlled trial assessing 24 weeks of treatment with DL-3-n-butylphthalide (a compound with multimodal actions, including a putative antiplatelet effect) in 280 Chinese participants with vascular cognitive impairment caused by subcortical ischaemic small vessel disease, but without dementia. There was very low-certainty evidence for a small difference in cognitive test scores favouring treatment with DL-3-n-butylphthalide, as measured by the 12-item Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (adjusted mean difference -1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.02 to -0.12), but this difference may not be clinically relevant. There was also very low-certainty evidence for greater proportional improvement measured with the Clinician Interview-Based Impression of Change-Plus Caregiver Input (57% with DL-3-n-butylphthalide versus 42% with placebo; P = 0.01), but there was no difference in other measures of cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating) or function. There was no evidence of a difference in adverse events between treatment groups. The SILENCE RCT compared antithrombotic therapy (aspirin) and placebo during four years of treatment in 83 participants with 'silent brain infarcts' who were on no prior antithrombotic therapy. There was very low-certainty evidence for no difference between groups across various measures of cognition and function, rates of stroke or adverse events. The Secondary Prevention of Subcortical Stroke Study (SPS3) compared dual antiplatelet therapy (clopidogrel plus aspirin) to aspirin alone in 3020 participants with recent lacunar stroke. There was low-certainty evidence of no effect on cognitive outcomes as measured by the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instruments (CASI) assessed annually over five years. There was also low-certainty evidence of no difference in the annual incidence of mild cognitive decline between the two treatment groups (9.7% with dual antiplatelet therapy versus 9.9% with aspirin), or the annual stroke recurrence rate (2.5% with dual antiplatelet therapy versus 2.7% with aspirin). Bleeding risk may be higher with dual antiplatelet therapy (hazard ratio (HR) 2.15, 95% CI 1.49 to 3.11; low certainty evidence), but there may be no significant increase in intracerebral bleeding risk (HR 1.52, 95% CI 0.79 to 2.93; low-certainty evidence). None of the included trials assessed the incidence of new dementia.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no convincing evidence to suggest any clinically relevant cognitive benefit of using antithrombotic therapy in addition to standard treatment in people with cerebral small vessel disease but without dementia, but there may be an increased bleeding risk with this approach. There was marked heterogeneity across the trials and the certainty of the evidence was generally poor.

Diagnostic test accuracy of remote, multidomain cognitive assessment (telephone and video call) for dementia

BACKGROUND

Remote cognitive assessments are increasingly needed to assist in the detection of cognitive disorders, but the diagnostic accuracy of telephone- and video-based cognitive screening remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the test accuracy of any multidomain cognitive test delivered remotely for the diagnosis of any form of dementia. To assess for potential differences in cognitive test scoring when using a remote platform, and where a remote screener was compared to the equivalent face-to-face test.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, and ClinicalTrials.gov (www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/) databases on 2 June 2021. We performed forward and backward searching of included citations.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included cross-sectional studies, where a remote, multidomain assessment was administered alongside a clinical diagnosis of dementia or equivalent face-to-face test.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed risk of bias and extracted data; a third review author moderated disagreements. Our primary analysis was the accuracy of remote assessments against a clinical diagnosis of dementia. Where data were available, we reported test accuracy as sensitivity and specificity. We did not perform quantitative meta-analysis as there were too few studies at individual test level. For those studies comparing remote versus in-person use of an equivalent screening test, if data allowed, we described correlations, reliability, differences in scores and the proportion classified as having cognitive impairment for each test.

MAIN RESULTS

The review contains 31 studies (19 differing tests, 3075 participants), of which seven studies (six telephone, one video call, 756 participants) were relevant to our primary objective of describing test accuracy against a clinical diagnosis of dementia. All studies were at unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain, but were low risk in applicability to the review question. Overall, sensitivity of remote tools varied with values between 26% and 100%, and specificity between 65% and 100%, with no clearly superior test. Across the 24 papers comparing equivalent remote and in-person tests (14 telephone, 10 video call), agreement between tests was good, but rarely perfect (correlation coefficient range: 0.48 to 0.98).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the common and increasing use of remote cognitive assessment, supporting evidence on test accuracy is limited. Available data do not allow us to suggest a preferred test. Remote testing is complex, and this is reflected in the heterogeneity seen in tests used, their application, and their analysis. More research is needed to describe accuracy of contemporary approaches to remote cognitive assessment. While data comparing remote and in-person use of a test were reassuring, thresholds and scoring rules derived from in-person testing may not be applicable when the equivalent test is adapted for remote use.

The Scottish Brain Health Service Model: Rationale and Scientific Basis for a National Care Pathway of Brain Health Services in Scotland

In order to address the oft-cited societal, economic, and health and social care impacts of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease, we must move decisively from reactive to proactive clinical practice and to embed evidence-based brain health education throughout society. Most disease processes can be at least partially prevented, slowed, or reversed. We have long neglected to intervene in neurodegenerative disease processes, largely due to a misconception that their predominant symptom - cognitive decline - is a normal, age-related process, but also due to a lack of multi-disciplinary collaboration. We now understand that there are modifiable risk factors for neurodegenerative diseases, that successful management of common comorbidities (such as diabetes and hypertension) can reduce the incidence of neurodegenerative disease, and that disease processes begin (and, crucially, can be detected, reduced, and delayed, prevented, or treated) decades earlier in life than had previously been appreciated. Brain Health Scotland, established by Scottish Government and working in partnership with Alzheimer Scotland, propose far-reaching public health and clinical practice approaches to reduce neurodegenerative disease incidence. Focusing here on Brain Health Scotland's clinical offerings, we present the Scottish Model for Brain Health Services. To our knowledge, the Scottish Model for Brain Health, built on foundations of personalised risk profiling, targeted risk reduction and prevention, early disease detection, equity of access, and harnessing comprehensive data to assist in clinical decision-making, marks the first example of a nationwide approach to overhauling clinical, societal, and political approaches to the prevention, assessment, and treatment of neurodegenerative disease.

Non-pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised non-ICU patients

BACKGROUND

Delirium is an acute neuropsychological disorder that is common in hospitalised patients. It can be distressing to patients and carers and it is associated with serious adverse outcomes. Treatment options for established delirium are limited and so prevention of delirium is desirable. Non-pharmacological interventions are thought to be important in delirium prevention.  OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions designed to prevent delirium in hospitalised patients outside intensive care units (ICU).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the specialised register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group, with additional searches conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS, Web of Science Core Collection, ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization Portal/ICTRP to 16 September 2020. There were no language or date restrictions applied to the electronic searches, and no methodological filters were used to restrict the search.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of single and multicomponent non-pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised adults cared for outside intensive care or high dependency settings. We only included non-pharmacological interventions which were designed and implemented to prevent delirium.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently examined titles and abstracts identified by the search for eligibility and extracted data from full-text articles. Any disagreements on eligibility and inclusion were resolved by consensus. We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures. The primary outcomes were: incidence of delirium; inpatient and later mortality; and new diagnosis of dementia. We included secondary and adverse outcomes as pre-specified in the review protocol. We used risk ratios (RRs) as measures of treatment effect for dichotomous outcomes and between-group mean differences for continuous outcomes. The certainty of the evidence was assessed using GRADE. A complementary exploratory analysis was undertaker using a Bayesian component network meta-analysis fixed-effect model to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the individual components of multicomponent interventions and describe which components were most strongly associated with reducing the incidence of delirium.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 22 RCTs that recruited a total of 5718 adult participants. Fourteen trials compared a multicomponent delirium prevention intervention with usual care. Two trials compared liberal and restrictive blood transfusion thresholds. The remaining six trials each investigated a different non-pharmacological intervention. Incidence of delirium was reported in all studies.  Using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, we identified risks of bias in all included trials. All were at high risk of performance bias as participants and personnel were not blinded to the interventions. Nine trials were at high risk of detection bias due to lack of blinding of outcome assessors and three more were at unclear risk in this domain.  Pooled data showed that multi-component non-pharmacological interventions probably reduce the incidence of delirium compared to usual care (10.5% incidence in the intervention group, compared to 18.4% in the control group, risk ratio (RR) 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 0.71, I² = 39%; 14 studies; 3693 participants; moderate-certainty evidence, downgraded due to risk of bias).  There may be little or no effect of multicomponent interventions on inpatient mortality compared to usual care (5.2% in the intervention group, compared to 4.5% in the control group, RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.74, I² = 15%; 10 studies; 2640 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to inconsistency and imprecision).  No studies of multicomponent interventions reported data on new diagnoses of dementia.  Multicomponent interventions may result in a small reduction of around a day in the duration of a delirium episode (mean difference (MD) -0.93, 95% CI -2.01 to 0.14 days, I² = 65%; 351 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and imprecision). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of multicomponent interventions on delirium severity (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.49, 95% CI -1.13 to 0.14, I²=64%; 147 participants; very low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and serious imprecision). Multicomponent interventions may result in a reduction in hospital length of stay compared to usual care (MD -1.30 days, 95% CI -2.56 to -0.04 days, I²=91%; 3351 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and inconsistency), but little to no difference in new care home admission at the time of hospital discharge (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.07; 536 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and imprecision). Reporting of other adverse outcomes was limited.  Our exploratory component network meta-analysis found that re-orientation (including use of familiar objects), cognitive stimulation and sleep hygiene were associated with reduced risk of incident delirium. Attention to nutrition and hydration, oxygenation, medication review, assessment of mood and bowel and bladder care were probably associated with a reduction in incident delirium but estimates included the possibility of no benefit or harm.  Reducing sensory deprivation, identification of infection, mobilisation and pain control all had summary estimates that suggested potential increases in delirium incidence, but the uncertainty in the estimates was substantial.  Evidence from two trials suggests that use of a liberal transfusion threshold over a restrictive transfusion threshold probably results in little to no difference in incident delirium (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.36; I² = 9%; 294 participants; moderate-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias).  Six other interventions were examined, but evidence for each was limited to single studies and we identified no evidence of delirium prevention.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-certainty evidence regarding the benefit of multicomponent non-pharmacological interventions for the prevention of delirium in hospitalised adults, estimated to reduce incidence by 43% compared to usual care. We found no evidence of an effect on mortality. There is emerging evidence that these interventions may reduce hospital length of stay, with a trend towards reduced delirium duration, although the effect on delirium severity remains uncertain. Further research should focus on implementation and detailed analysis of the components of the interventions to support more effective, tailored practice recommendations.

Interrater agreement in dementia diagnosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Dementia remains a clinical diagnosis with a degree of subjective assessment and potential for interrater disagreement. We described interrater agreement of clinical dementia diagnosis for various diagnostic criteria.

METHODS

We conducted a PROSPERO-registered (CRD42020168245) systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched multiple cross-disciplinary databases from inception until April 2020 for relevant papers, extracted data and described study quality in duplicate. Study quality was assessed using the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies. We used random-effects models to obtain summary estimates of interrater agreement using kappa and, where possible, Gwet's AC1/2 coefficients.

RESULTS

We found 7577 titles and 22 eligible studies. Meta-analysis was possible for all-cause dementia using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders third edition revised (DSM-III-R) criteria (kappa = 0.66, 95% CI = [0.53,0.78]), Alzheimer's disease using the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria (kappa = 0.71, 95% CI = [0.65,0.77] for presence/absence and AC2 = 0.61, 95% CI = [0.53,0.70] when distinguishing probable/possible cases), and vascular dementia using the International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) criteria kappa = 0.79 (95% CI = [0.70,0.87]). Data was more limited for other criteria and dementia types. AC1/2 coefficients generally indicated higher agreement. One study was rated as high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostic criteria for clinical dementia may have good but imperfect agreement. This has important implications for clinical practice and research studies, which frequently assume these criteria are perfect tests, such as diagnostic test accuracy studies frequently conducted for biomarkers and neuropsychological tests, and for trials where incident dementia is the outcome.

Diagnostic test accuracy of telehealth assessment for dementia and mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Many millions of people living with dementia around the world are not diagnosed, which has a negative impact both on their access to care and treatment and on rational service planning. Telehealth - the use of information and communication technology (ICT) to provide health services at a distance - may be a way to increase access to specialist assessment for people with suspected dementia, especially those living in remote or rural areas. It has also been much used during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is important to know whether diagnoses made using telehealth assessment are as accurate as those made in conventional, face-to-face clinical settings.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of telehealth assessment for dementia and mild cognitive impairment. Secondary objectives: to identify the quality and quantity of the relevant research evidence; to identify sources of heterogeneity in the test accuracy data; to identify and synthesise any data on patient or clinician satisfaction, resource use, costs or feasibility of the telehealth assessment models in the included studies.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched multiple databases and clinical trial registers on 4 November 2020 for published and 'grey' literature and registered trials. We applied no search filters and no language restrictions. We screened the retrieved citations in duplicate and assessed in duplicate the full texts of papers considered potentially relevant.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included in the review cross-sectional studies with 10 or more participants who had been referred to a specialist service for assessment of a suspected cognitive disorder. Within a period of one month or less, each participant had to undergo two clinical assessments designed to diagnose dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI): a telehealth assessment (the index test) and a conventional face-to-face assessment (the reference standard). The telehealth assessment could be informed by some data collected face-to-face, e.g. by nurses working in primary care, but all contact between the patient and the specialist clinician responsible for synthesising the information and making the diagnosis had to take place remotely using ICT.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data from included studies. Data extracted covered study design, setting, participants, details of index test and reference standard, and results in the form of numbers of participants given diagnoses of dementia or MCI. Data were also sought on dementia subtype diagnoses and on quantitative measures of patient or clinician satisfaction, resource use, costs and feasibility. We assessed risk of bias and applicability of each included study using QUADAS-2. We entered the results into 2x2 tables in order to calculate the sensitivity and specificity of telehealth assessment for the diagnosis of all-cause dementia, MCI, and any cognitive syndrome (combining dementia and MCI). We presented the results of included studies narratively because there were too few studies to derive summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity.

MAIN RESULTS

Three studies with 136 participants were eligible for inclusion. Two studies (20 and 100 participants) took place in community settings in Australia and one study (16 participants) was conducted in veterans' homes in the USA. Participants were referred from primary care with undiagnosed cognitive symptoms or were identified as being at high risk of having dementia on a screening test in the care homes. Dementia and MCI were target conditions in the larger study; the other studies targeted dementia diagnosis only. Only one small study used a 'pure' telehealth model, i.e. not involving any elements of face-to-face assessment. The studies were generally well-conducted. We considered two studies to be at high risk of incorporation bias because a substantial amount of information collected face-to-face by nurses was used to inform both index test and reference standard assessments. One study was at unclear risk of selection bias. For the diagnosis of all-cause dementia, sensitivity of telehealth assessment ranged from 0.80 to 1.00 and specificity from 0.80 to 1.00. We considered this to be very low-certainty evidence due to imprecision, inconsistency between studies and risk of bias. For the diagnosis of MCI, data were available from only one study (100 participants) giving a sensitivity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) and a specificity of 0.73 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.84). We considered this to be low-certainty evidence due to imprecision and risk of bias. For diagnosis of any cognitive syndrome (dementia or MCI), data from the same study gave a sensitivity of 0.97 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.99) and a specificity of 0.22 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.60). The majority of diagnostic disagreements concerned the distinction between MCI and dementia, occurring approximately equally in either direction. There was also a tendency for patients identified as cognitively healthy at face-to-face assessment to be diagnosed with MCI at telehealth assessment (but numbers were small). There were insufficient data to make any assessment of the accuracy of dementia subtype diagnosis. One study provided a small amount of data indicating a good level of clinician and especially patient satisfaction with the telehealth model. There were no data on resource use, costs or feasibility.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found only very few eligible studies with a small number of participants. An important difference between the studies providing data for the analyses was whether the target condition was dementia only (two studies) or dementia and MCI (one study). The data suggest that telehealth assessment may be highly sensitive and specific for the diagnosis of all-cause dementia when assessed against a reference standard of conventional face-to-face assessment, but the estimates are imprecise due to small sample sizes and between-study heterogeneity, and may apply mainly to telehealth models which incorporate a considerable amount of face-to-face contact with healthcare professionals other than the doctor responsible for making the diagnosis. For the diagnosis of MCI by telehealth assessment, best estimates of both sensitivity and specificity were somewhat lower, but were based on a single study. Errors occurred at the cognitively healthy/MCI and the MCI/dementia boundaries. However, there is no evidence that diagnostic disagreements were more frequent than would be expected due to the known variation between clinicians' opinions when assigning a dementia diagnosis.

Non-pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised non-ICU patients

BACKGROUND

Delirium is an acute neuropsychological disorder that is common in hospitalised patients. It can be distressing to patients and carers and it is associated with serious adverse outcomes. Treatment options for established delirium are limited and so prevention of delirium is desirable. Non-pharmacological interventions are thought to be important in delirium prevention.  OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions designed to prevent delirium in hospitalised patients outside intensive care units (ICU).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the specialised register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group, with additional searches conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS, Web of Science Core Collection, ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization Portal/ICTRP to 16 September 2020. There were no language or date restrictions applied to the electronic searches, and no methodological filters were used to restrict the search.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of single and multicomponent non-pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised adults cared for outside intensive care or high dependency settings. We only included non-pharmacological interventions which were designed and implemented to prevent delirium.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently examined titles and abstracts identified by the search for eligibility and extracted data from full-text articles. Any disagreements on eligibility and inclusion were resolved by consensus. We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures. The primary outcomes were: incidence of delirium; inpatient and later mortality; and new diagnosis of dementia. We included secondary and adverse outcomes as pre-specified in the review protocol. We used risk ratios (RRs) as measures of treatment effect for dichotomous outcomes and between-group mean differences for continuous outcomes. The certainty of the evidence was assessed using GRADE. A complementary exploratory analysis was undertaker using a Bayesian component network meta-analysis fixed-effect model to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the individual components of multicomponent interventions and describe which components were most strongly associated with reducing the incidence of delirium.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 22 RCTs that recruited a total of 5718 adult participants. Fourteen trials compared a multicomponent delirium prevention intervention with usual care. Two trials compared liberal and restrictive blood transfusion thresholds. The remaining six trials each investigated a different non-pharmacological intervention. Incidence of delirium was reported in all studies.  Using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, we identified risks of bias in all included trials. All were at high risk of performance bias as participants and personnel were not blinded to the interventions. Nine trials were at high risk of detection bias due to lack of blinding of outcome assessors and three more were at unclear risk in this domain.  Pooled data showed that multi-component non-pharmacological interventions probably reduce the incidence of delirium compared to usual care (10.5% incidence in the intervention group, compared to 18.4% in the control group, risk ratio (RR) 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 0.71, I2 = 39%; 14 studies; 3693 participants; moderate-certainty evidence, downgraded due to risk of bias).  There may be little or no effect of multicomponent interventions on inpatient mortality compared to usual care (5.2% in the intervention group, compared to 4.5% in the control group, RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.74, I2 = 15%; 10 studies; 2640 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to inconsistency and imprecision).  No studies of multicomponent interventions reported data on new diagnoses of dementia.  Multicomponent interventions may result in a small reduction of around a day in the duration of a delirium episode (mean difference (MD) -0.93, 95% CI -2.01 to 0.14 days, I2 = 65%; 351 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and imprecision). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of multicomponent interventions on delirium severity (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.49, 95% CI -1.13 to 0.14, I2=64%; 147 participants; very low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and serious imprecision). Multicomponent interventions may result in a reduction in hospital length of stay compared to usual care (MD -1.30 days, 95% CI -2.56 to -0.04 days, I2=91%; 3351 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and inconsistency), but little to no difference in new care home admission at the time of hospital discharge (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.07; 536 participants; low-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias and imprecision). Reporting of other adverse outcomes was limited.  Our exploratory component network meta-analysis found that re-orientation (including use of familiar objects), cognitive stimulation and sleep hygiene were associated with reduced risk of incident delirium. Attention to nutrition and hydration, oxygenation, medication review, assessment of mood and bowel and bladder care were probably associated with a reduction in incident delirium but estimates included the possibility of no benefit or harm.  Reducing sensory deprivation, identification of infection, mobilisation and pain control all had summary estimates that suggested potential increases in delirium incidence, but the uncertainty in the estimates was substantial.  Evidence from two trials suggests that use of a liberal transfusion threshold over a restrictive transfusion threshold probably results in little to no difference in incident delirium (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.36; I2 = 9%; 294 participants; moderate-certainty evidence downgraded due to risk of bias).  Six other interventions were examined, but evidence for each was limited to single studies and we identified no evidence of delirium prevention.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-certainty evidence regarding the benefit of multicomponent non-pharmacological interventions for the prevention of delirium in hospitalised adults, estimated to reduce incidence by 43% compared to usual care. We found no evidence of an effect on mortality. There is emerging evidence that these interventions may reduce hospital length of stay, with a trend towards reduced delirium duration, although the effect on delirium severity remains uncertain. Further research should focus on implementation and detailed analysis of the components of the interventions to support more effective, tailored practice recommendations.

Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) for the detection of dementia within a secondary care setting

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of dementia relies on the presence of new-onset cognitive impairment affecting an individual's functioning and activities of daily living. The Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) is a questionnaire instrument, completed by a suitable 'informant' who knows the patient well, designed to assess change in functional performance secondary to cognitive change; it is used as a tool for identifying those who may have dementia. In secondary care there are two specific instances where patients may be assessed for the presence of dementia. These are in the general acute hospital setting, where opportunistic screening may be undertaken, or in specialist memory services where individuals have been referred due to perceived cognitive problems. To ensure an instrument is suitable for diagnostic use in these settings, its test accuracy must be established.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of the informant-based questionnaire IQCODE for detection of dementia in a secondary care setting.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following sources on the 28th of January 2013: ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), MEDLINE (Ovid SP), EMBASE (Ovid SP), PsycINFO (Ovid SP), BIOSIS Previews (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), Web of Science Core Collection (includes Conference Proceedings Citation Index) (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), CINAHL (EBSCOhost) and LILACS (BIREME). We also searched sources specific to diagnostic test accuracy: MEDION (Universities of Maastricht and Leuven); DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects - via the Cochrane Library); HTA Database (Health Technology Assessment Database via the Cochrane Library) and ARIF (Birmingham University). We also checked reference lists of relevant studies and reviews, used searches of known relevant studies in PubMed to track related articles, and contacted research groups conducting work on IQCODE for dementia diagnosis to try to find additional studies. We developed a sensitive search strategy; search terms were designed to cover key concepts using several different approaches run in parallel and included terms relating to cognitive tests, cognitive screening and dementia. We used standardised database subject headings such as MeSH terms (in MEDLINE) and other standardised headings (controlled vocabulary) in other databases, as appropriate.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected those studies performed in secondary-care settings, which included (not necessarily exclusively) IQCODE to assess for the presence of dementia and where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with clinical assessment. For the 'secondary care' setting we included all studies which assessed patients in hospital (e.g. acute unscheduled admissions, referrals to specialist geriatric assessment services etc.) and those referred for specialist 'memory' assessment, typically in psychogeriatric services.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by electronic database searches, and reviewed abstracts of all potentially relevant studies. Two independent assessors checked full papers for eligibility and extracted data. We determined quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) using the QUADAS-2 tool, and reporting quality using the STARD tool.

MAIN RESULTS

From 72 papers describing IQCODE test accuracy, we included 13 papers, representing data from 2745 individuals (n = 1413 (51%) with dementia). Pooled analysis of all studies using data presented closest to a cut-off of 3.3 indicated that sensitivity was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94); specificity 0.66 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.75); the positive likelihood ratio was 2.7 (95% CI 2.0 to 3.6) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.14 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.22). There was a statistically significant difference in test accuracy between the general hospital setting and the specialist memory setting (P = 0.019), suggesting that IQCODE performs better in a 'general' setting. We found no significant differences in the test accuracy of the short (16-item) versus the 26-item IQCODE, or in the language of administration. There was significant heterogeneity in the included studies, including a highly varied prevalence of dementia (10.5% to 87.4%). Across the included papers there was substantial potential for bias, particularly around sampling of included participants and selection criteria, which may limit generalisability. There was also evidence of suboptimal reporting, particularly around disease severity and handling indeterminate results, which are important if considering use in clinical practice.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The IQCODE can be used to identify older adults in the general hospital setting who are at risk of dementia and require specialist assessment; it is useful specifically for ruling out those without evidence of cognitive decline. The language of administration did not affect test accuracy, which supports the cross-cultural use of the tool. These findings are qualified by the significant heterogeneity, the potential for bias and suboptimal reporting found in the included studies.

Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) for the detection of dementia within a general practice (primary care) setting

BACKGROUND

The IQCODE (Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Decline in the Elderly) is a commonly used questionnaire based tool that uses collateral information to assess for cognitive decline and dementia. Brief tools that can be used for dementia "screening" or "triage" may have particular utility in primary care / general practice healthcare settings but only if they have suitable test accuracy. A synthesis of the available data regarding IQCODE accuracy in a primary care setting should help inform cognitive assessment strategies for clinical practice; research and policy.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of the informant-based questionnaire IQCODE, for detection of dementia in a primary care setting.

SEARCH METHODS

A search was performed in the following sources on the 28th of January 2013: ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), MEDLINE (Ovid SP), EMBASE (Ovid SP), PsycINFO (Ovid SP), BIOSIS (Ovid SP), ISI Web of Science and Conference Proceedings (ISI Web of Knowledge), CINHAL (EBSCOhost) and LILACs (BIREME). We also searched sources specific to diagnostic test accuracy: MEDION (Universities of Maastricht and Leuven); DARE (York University); HTA Database (Health Technology Assessments Database via The Cochrane Library) and ARIF (Birmingham University). We developed a sensitive search strategy; search terms were designed to cover key concepts using several different approaches run in parallel and included terms relating to cognitive tests, cognitive screening and dementia. We used standardized database subject headings such as MeSH terms (in MEDLINE) and other standardized headings (controlled vocabulary) in other databases, as appropriate.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected those studies performed in primary care settings, which included (not necessarily exclusively) IQCODE to assess for the presence of dementia and where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with clinical assessment. For the "primary care" setting, we included those healthcare settings where unselected patients, present for initial, non-specialist assessment of memory or non-memory related symptoms; often with a view to onward referral for more definitive assessment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by electronic database searches and abstracts of all potentially relevant studies were reviewed. Full papers were assessed for eligibility and data extracted by two independent assessors. Quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) was determined using the QUADAS-2 tool. Reporting quality was determined using the STARDdem extension to the STARD tool.

MAIN RESULTS

From 71 papers describing IQCODE test accuracy, we included 1 paper, representing data from 230 individuals (n=16 [7%] with dementia). The paper described those patients consulting a primary care service who self-identified as Japanese-American. Dementia diagnosis was made using Benson & Cummings criteria and the IQCODE was recorded as part of a longer interview with the informant. IQCODE accuracy was assessed at various test thresholds, with a "trade-off" between sensitivity and specificity across these cutpoints. At an IQCODE threshold of 3.2 sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 76%; for IQCODE 3.7 sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 98%. Applying the QUADAS-2 assessments, the study was at high risk of bias in all categories. In particular degree of blinding was unclear and not all participants were included in the final analysis.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

It is not possible to give definitive guidance on the test accuracy of IQCODE for the diagnosis of dementia in a primary care setting based on the single study identified. We are surprised by the lack of research using the IQCODE in primary care as this is, arguably, the most appropriate setting for targeted case finding of those with undiagnosed dementia in order to maximise opportunities to intervene and provide support for the individual and their carers.

Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) for the detection of dementia within community dwelling populations

BACKGROUND

Various tools exist for initial assessment of possible dementia with no consensus on the optimal assessment method. Instruments that use collateral sources to assess change in cognitive function over time may have particular utility. The most commonly used informant dementia assessment is the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). A synthesis of the available data regarding IQCODE accuracy will help inform cognitive assessment strategies for clinical practice, research and policy.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary obective was to determine the accuracy of the informant-based questionnaire IQCODE for detection of dementia within community dwelling populations. Our secondary objective was to describe the effect of heterogeneity on the summary estimates. We were particularly interested in the traditional 26-item scale versus the 16-item short form; and language of administration. We explored the effect of varying the threshold IQCODE score used to define 'test positivity'.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following sources on 28 January 2013: ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), MEDLINE (OvidSP), EMBASE (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), BIOSIS Previews (ISI Web of Knowledge), Web of Science with Conference Proceedings (ISI Web of Knowledge), LILACS (BIREME). We also searched sources relevant or specific to diagnostic test accuracy: MEDION (Universities of Maastrict and Leuven); DARE (York University); ARIF (Birmingham University). We used sensitive search terms based on MeSH terms and other controlled vocabulary.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected those studies performed in community settings that used (not necessarily exclusively) the IQCODE to assess for presence of dementia and, where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with clinical assessment. Our intention with limiting the search to a 'community' setting was to include those studies closest to population level assessment. Within our predefined community inclusion criteria, there were relevant papers that fulfilled our definition of community dwelling but represented a selected population, for example stroke survivors. We included these studies but performed sensitivity analyses to assess the effects of these less representative populations on the summary results.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by the electronic database searches and abstracts of all potentially relevant studies were reviewed. Full papers were assessed for eligibility and data extracted by two independent assessors. For quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) we used the QUADAS 2 tool. We included test accuracy data on the IQCODE used at predefined diagnostic thresholds. Where data allowed, we performed meta-analyses to calculate summary values of sensitivity and specificity with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We pre-specified analyses to describe the effect of IQCODE format (traditional or short form) and language of administration for the IQCODE.

MAIN RESULTS

From 16,144 citations, 71 papers described IQCODE test accuracy. We included 10 papers (11 independent datasets) representing data from 2644 individuals (n = 379 (14%) with dementia). Using IQCODE cut-offs commonly employed in clinical practice (3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6) the sensitivity and specificity of IQCODE for diagnosis of dementia across the studies were generally above 75%. Taking an IQCODE threshold of 3.3 (or closest available) the sensitivity was 0.80 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.85); specificity was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); positive likelihood ratio was 5.2 (95% CI 3.7 to 7.5) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.23 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.29). Comparative analysis suggested no significant difference in the test accuracy of the 16 and 26-item IQCODE tests and no significant difference in test accuracy by language of administration. There was little difference in sensitivity across our predefined diagnostic cut-points. There was substantial heterogeneity in the included studies. Sensitivity analyses removing potentially unrepresentative populations in these studies made little difference to the pooled data estimates. The majority of included papers had potential for bias, particularly around participant selection and sampling. The quality of reporting was suboptimal particularly regarding timing of assessments and descriptors of reproducibility and inter-observer variability.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Published data suggest that if using the IQCODE for community dwelling older adults, the 16 item IQCODE may be preferable to the traditional scale due to lesser test burden and no obvious difference in accuracy. Although IQCODE test accuracy is in a range that many would consider 'reasonable', in the context of community or population settings the use of the IQCODE alone would result in substantial misdiagnosis and false reassurance. Across the included studies there were issues with heterogeneity, several potential biases and suboptimal reporting quality.

Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) for the early detection of dementia across a variety of healthcare settings

BACKGROUND

The Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) is a structured interview based on informant responses that is used to assess for possible dementia. IQCODE has been used for retrospective or contemporaneous assessment of cognitive decline. There is considerable interest in tests that may identify those at future risk of developing dementia. Assessing a population free of dementia for the prospective development of dementia is an approach often used in studies of dementia biomarkers. In theory, questionnaire-based assessments, such as IQCODE, could be used in a similar way, assessing for dementia that is diagnosed on a later (delayed) assessment.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of the informant-based questionnaire IQCODE for the early detection of dementia across a variety of health care settings.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched these sources on 16 January 2016: ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), MEDLINE Ovid SP, Embase Ovid SP, PsycINFO Ovid SP, BIOSIS Previews on Thomson Reuters Web of Science, Web of Science Core Collection (includes Conference Proceedings Citation Index) on Thomson Reuters Web of Science, CINAHL EBSCOhost, and LILACS BIREME. We also searched sources specific to diagnostic test accuracy: MEDION (Universities of Maastricht and Leuven); DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, in the Cochrane Library); HTA Database (Health Technology Assessment Database, in the Cochrane Library), and ARIF (Birmingham University). We checked reference lists of included studies and reviews, used searches of included studies in PubMed to track related articles, and contacted research groups conducting work on IQCODE for dementia diagnosis to try to find additional studies. We developed a sensitive search strategy; search terms were designed to cover key concepts using several different approaches run in parallel, and included terms relating to cognitive tests, cognitive screening, and dementia. We used standardised database subject headings, such as MeSH terms (in MEDLINE) and other standardised headings (controlled vocabulary) in other databases, as appropriate.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected studies that included a population free from dementia at baseline, who were assessed with the IQCODE and subsequently assessed for the development of dementia over time. The implication was that at the time of testing, the individual had a cognitive problem sufficient to result in an abnormal IQCODE score (defined by the study authors), but not yet meeting dementia diagnostic criteria.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by the electronic database searches, and reviewed abstracts of all potentially relevant studies. Two assessors independently checked the full papers for eligibility and extracted data. We determined quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) using the QUADAS-2 tool, and reported quality using the STARDdem tool.

MAIN RESULTS

From 85 papers describing IQCODE, we included three papers, representing data from 626 individuals. Of this total, 22% (N = 135/626) were excluded because of prevalent dementia. There was substantial attrition; 47% (N = 295) of the study population received reference standard assessment at first follow-up (three to six months) and 28% (N = 174) received reference standard assessment at final follow-up (one to three years). Prevalence of dementia ranged from 12% to 26% at first follow-up and 16% to 35% at final follow-up. The three studies were considered to be too heterogenous to combine, so we did not perform meta-analyses to describe summary estimates of interest. Included patients were poststroke (two papers) and hip fracture (one paper). The IQCODE was used at three thresholds of positivity (higher than 3.0, higher than 3.12 and higher than 3.3) to predict those at risk of a future diagnosis of dementia. Using a cut-off of 3.0, IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.75 (95%CI 0.51 to 0.91) and a specificity of 0.46 (95%CI 0.34 to 0.59) at one year following stroke. Using a cut-off of 3.12, the IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.80 (95%CI 0.44 to 0.97) and specificity of 0.53 (95C%CI 0.41 to 0.65) for the clinical diagnosis of dementia at six months after hip fracture. Using a cut-off of 3.3, the IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.84 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.94) and a specificity of 0.87 (95%CI 0.76 to 0.94) for the clinical diagnosis of dementia at one year after stroke. In generaI, the IQCODE was sensitive for identification of those who would develop dementia, but lacked specificity. Methods for both excluding prevalent dementia at baseline and assessing for the development of dementia were varied, and had the potential to introduce bias.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Included studies were heterogenous, recruited from specialist settings, and had potential biases. The studies identified did not allow us to make specific recommendations on the use of the IQCODE for the future detection of dementia in clinical practice. The included studies highlighted the challenges of delayed verification dementia research, with issues around prevalent dementia assessment, loss to follow-up over time, and test non-completion potentially limiting the studies. Future research should recognise these issues and have explicit protocols for dealing with them.

Mini-Cog for the detection of dementia within a secondary care setting

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias relies on clinical assessment. There is a high prevalence of cognitive disorders, including undiagnosed dementia in secondary care settings. Short cognitive tests can be helpful in identifying those who require further specialist diagnostic assessment; however, there is a lack of consensus around the optimal tools to use in clinical practice. The Mini-Cog is a short cognitive test comprising three-item recall and a clock-drawing test that is used in secondary care settings.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to determine the accuracy of the Mini-Cog for detecting dementia in a secondary care setting. The secondary objectives were to investigate the heterogeneity of test accuracy in the included studies and potential sources of heterogeneity. These potential sources of heterogeneity will include the baseline prevalence of dementia in study samples, thresholds used to determine positive test results, the type of dementia (Alzheimer's disease dementia or all causes of dementia), and aspects of study design related to study quality.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following sources in September 2012, with an update to 12 March 2019: Cochrane Dementia Group Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), BIOSIS Previews (Web of Knowledge), Science Citation Index (ISI Web of Knowledge), PsycINFO (OvidSP), and LILACS (BIREME). We made no exclusions with regard to language of Mini-Cog administration or language of publication, using translation services where necessary.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included cross-sectional studies and excluded case-control designs, due to the risk of bias. We selected those studies that included the Mini-Cog as an index test to diagnose dementia where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with reference standard clinical assessment using standardised dementia diagnostic criteria. We only included studies in secondary care settings (including inpatient and outpatient hospital participants).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles and abstracts generated by the electronic database searches. Two review authors independently checked full papers for eligibility and extracted data. We determined quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) using the QUADAS-2 tool. We extracted data into two-by-two tables to allow calculation of accuracy metrics for individual studies, reporting the sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals of these measures, summarising them graphically using forest plots.

MAIN RESULTS

Three studies with a total of 2560 participants fulfilled the inclusion criteria, set in neuropsychology outpatient referrals, outpatients attending a general medicine clinic, and referrals to a memory clinic. Only n = 1415 (55.3%) of participants were included in the analysis to inform evaluation of Mini-Cog test accuracy, due to the selective use of available data by study authors. There were concerns related to high risk of bias with respect to patient selection, and unclear risk of bias and high concerns related to index test conduct and applicability. In all studies, the Mini-Cog was retrospectively derived from historic data sets. No studies included acute general hospital inpatients. The prevalence of dementia ranged from 32.2% to 87.3%. The sensitivities of the Mini-Cog in the individual studies were reported as 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 0.71), 0.60 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.72), and 0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.90). The specificity of the Mini-Cog for each individual study was 0.87 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.92), 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73), and 1.00 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.00). We did not perform meta-analysis due to concerns related to risk of bias and heterogeneity.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review identified only a limited number of diagnostic test accuracy studies using Mini-Cog in secondary care settings. Those identified were at high risk of bias related to patient selection and high concerns related to index test conduct and applicability. The evidence was indirect, as all studies evaluated Mini-Cog differently from the review question, where it was anticipated that studies would conduct Mini-Cog and independently but contemporaneously perform a reference standard assessment to diagnose dementia. The pattern of test accuracy varied across the three studies. Future research should evaluate Mini-Cog as a test in itself, rather than derived from other neuropsychological assessments. There is also a need for evaluation of the feasibility of the Mini-Cog for the detection of dementia to help adequately determine its role in the clinical pathway.

The role of C-reactive protein as a prognostic marker in COVID-19

Background

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a non-specific acute phase reactant elevated in infection or inflammation. Higher levels indicate more severe infection and have been used as an indicator of COVID-19 disease severity. However, the evidence for CRP as a prognostic marker is yet to be determined. The aim of this study is to examine the CRP response in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to determine the utility of CRP on admission for predicting inpatient mortality.

Methods

Data were collected between 27 February and 10 June 2020, incorporating two cohorts: the COPE (COVID-19 in Older People) study of 1564 adult patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 admitted to 11 hospital sites (test cohort) and a later validation cohort of 271 patients. Admission CRP was investigated, and finite mixture models were fit to assess the likely underlying distribution. Further, different prognostic thresholds of CRP were analysed in a time-to-mortality Cox regression to determine a cut-off. Bootstrapping was used to compare model performance [Harrell’s C statistic and Akaike information criterion (AIC)].

Results

The test and validation cohort distribution of CRP was not affected by age, and mixture models indicated a bimodal distribution. A threshold cut-off of CRP ≥40 mg/L performed well to predict mortality (and performed similarly to treating CRP as a linear variable).

Conclusions

The distributional characteristics of CRP indicated an optimal cut-off of ≥40 mg/L was associated with mortality. This threshold may assist clinicians in using CRP as an early trigger for enhanced observation, treatment decisions and advanced care planning.

Closing the UK care home data gap - methodological challenges and solutions

UK care home residents are invisible in national datasets. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed data failings that have hindered service development and research for years. Fundamental gaps, in terms of population and service demographics coupled with difficulties identifying the population in routine data are a significant limitation. These challenges are a key factor underpinning the failure to provide timely and responsive policy decisions to support care homes. In this commentary we propose changes that could address this data gap, priorities include: (1) Reliable identification of care home residents and their tenure; (2) Common identifiers to facilitate linkage between data sources from different sectors; (3) Individual-level, anonymised data inclusive of mortality irrespective of where death occurs; (4) Investment in capacity for large-scale, anonymised linked data analysis within social care working in partnership with academics; (5) Recognition of the need for collaborative working to use novel data sources, working to understand their meaning and ensure correct interpretation; (6) Better integration of information governance, enabling safe access for legitimate analyses from all relevant sectors; (7) A core national dataset for care homes developed in collaboration with key stakeholders to support integrated care delivery, service planning, commissioning, policy and research. Our suggestions are immediately actionable with political will and investment. We should seize this opportunity to capitalise on the spotlight the pandemic has thrown on the vulnerable populations living in care homes to invest in data-informed approaches to support care, evidence-based policy making and research.

Anticholinergic burden (prognostic factor) for prediction of dementia or cognitive decline in older adults with no known cognitive syndrome

BACKGROUND

Medications with anticholinergic properties are commonly prescribed to older adults. The cumulative anticholinergic effect of all the medications a person takes is referred to as the 'anticholinergic burden' because of its potential to cause adverse effects. It is possible that high anticholinergic burden may be a risk factor for development of cognitive decline or dementia. There are various scales available to measure anticholinergic burden but agreement between them is often poor.

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether anticholinergic burden, as defined at the level of each individual scale, is a prognostic factor for future cognitive decline or dementia in cognitively unimpaired older adults.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases from inception to 24 March 2021: MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), and ISI Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Science).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case-control observational studies with a minimum of one year' follow-up that examined the association between an anticholinergic burden measurement scale and future cognitive decline or dementia in cognitively unimpaired older adults.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, and undertook data extraction, assessment of risk of bias, and GRADE assessment. We extracted odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and linear data on the association between anticholinergic burden and cognitive decline or dementia. We intended to pool each metric separately; however, only OR-based data were suitable for pooling via a random-effects meta-analysis. We initially established adjusted and unadjusted pooled rates for each available anticholinergic scale; then, as an exploratory analysis, established pooled rates on the prespecified association across scales. We examined variability based on severity of anticholinergic burden.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 25 studies that met our inclusion criteria (968,428 older adults). Twenty studies were conducted in the community care setting, two in primary care clinics, and three in secondary care settings. Eight studies (320,906 participants) provided suitable data for meta-analysis. The Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden scale (ACB scale) was the only scale with sufficient data for 'scale-based' meta-analysis. Unadjusted ORs suggested an increased risk for cognitive decline or dementia in older adults with an anticholinergic burden (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.96) and adjusted ORs similarly suggested an increased risk for anticholinergic burden, defined according to the ACB scale (OR 2.63, 95% CI 1.09 to 6.29). Exploratory analysis combining adjusted ORs across available scales supported these results (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.38 to 3.38), and there was evidence of variability in risk based on severity of anticholinergic burden (ACB scale 1: OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.29; ACB scale 2: OR 2.71, 95% CI 2.01 to 3.56; ACB scale 3: OR 3.27, 95% CI 1.41 to 7.61); however, overall GRADE evaluation of certainty of the evidence was low.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is low-certainty evidence that older adults without cognitive impairment who take medications with anticholinergic effects may be at increased risk of cognitive decline or dementia.

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) use in post-stroke patient care and clinical practice: a realist synthesis protocol

BACKGROUND

There is growing interest in the use of routine patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to influence the care of individual patients with stroke. However, there are significant gaps in our understanding as to how PROMs influence post-stroke patient care and clinical practice. This is due to factors including the number of purported uses for PROMs and that PROMs are complex interventions, which attempt to stimulate varied actions or behaviours. Therefore, the objective of this realist synthesis is to offer theory-based explanations as to how PROMs influence post-stroke clinical practice and patient care.

METHODS

This is a protocol for a realist synthesis, which involves three distinct phases: theory building (phase 1), theory testing and refinement (phase 2) and synthesis (phase 3). Phase 1 will develop initial rough programme theories (IRPTs), through literature searches (from January 2000 onwards) of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and the grey literature. Only secondary sources will be included that contribute to the development of IRPTs. Only two IRPTs, prioritised by the stakeholder group, will be taken forward to be tested and refined during phase 2. Further novel searches will be employed in phase 2, utilising the same criteria as phase 1; however, phase 2 searches will not utilise grey literature searches, and only primary research studies that contribute to the refinement of programme theories under investigation will be included. Two independent reviewers will screen and select all returned results. The reviewers will code and annotate relevant sources, resulting in 'fragments' to be extracted and graded based on the richness of their contribution to explanation and causal insight. Further, these fragments will be organised into 'Context-Mechanism-Outcome' configurations. Phase 3 of the review will involve the synthesis of context-mechanism-outcome configurations to form middle-range theory-based explanations and developed logic models for stakeholders to understand how PROMs in post-stroke clinical practice and patient care work for whom, how and under what circumstances.

DISCUSSION

The resulting realist synthesis will provide guidance on the implementation of PROMs within routine post-stroke clinical practice and patient care and act as a touchstone for further testing and refinement of PROMs programmes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020138649 .

36 Feasibility of Resistance Exercise to Failure at Different Loads in Frail and Healthy Older Adults?

Introduction

Resistance training (RT) is the most effective way to increase muscle mass and function in older adults both with/without sarcopenia/frailty. In younger adults, when RT is performed to muscle failure the load lifted does not mediate the magnitude of response, but there are no studies in older adults. We aimed to determine the feasibility of recruitment to a RT intervention working to muscle failure at different loads in frail and healthy older adults.

Methods

We performed an 8-week randomised feasibility trial of lower limb RT to volitional muscular failure, at high and low load. Participants were recruited via hospital outpatient clinics and newspaper advertisements. Outcomes included: frailty assessment (Fried criteria); muscle strength (maximum voluntary contraction/one-repetition maximum); functional abilities (Short Physical Performance Battery); safety/adverse events were recorded via a log, and patient experiences from focus groups.

Results

110 people were assessed for eligibility, and 58 randomised (frail n = 6, prefrail n = 20, robust n = 32) to either high (n = 30) or low load (n = 28) groups. Mean age of participants was 72 years (range 65–93), 36 were female, 22 male. Session attendance was 95% (high load) and 90.4% (low load). Most participants were recruited via advertisements. All participants reported feeling safe and reassured in the RT sessions. Two participants had a serious adverse event, one related to RT (hypotension) and several had adverse events (three intervention-related). Pain was reported at both loads (high n = 9, low n = 8) yet all completed. There were no differences (P &gt; 0.05) in effects of RT outcome variables between low and high load groups.

Conclusion

In this feasibility trial the recruitment of frail patients via clinics was limited. Performing supervised RT to muscle failure in older adults was safe/acceptable and the load at which RT was performed did not influence its efficacy. Future research into the effectiveness of such RT is warranted.

Cholinesterase inhibitors for vascular dementia and other vascular cognitive impairments: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) describes a broad spectrum of cognitive impairments caused by cerebrovascular disease, ranging from mild cognitive impairment to dementia. There are currently no pharmacological treatments recommended for improving either cognition or function in people with VCI. Three cholinesterase inhibitors (donepezil, galantamine, and rivastigmine) are licenced for the treatment of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. They are thought to work by compensating for reduced cholinergic neurotransmission, which is also a feature of VCI. Through pairwise comparisons with placebo and a network meta-analysis, we sought to determine whether these medications are effective in VCI and whether there are differences between them with regard to efficacy or adverse events.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To assess the efficacy and safety of cholinesterase inhibitors in the treatment of adults with vascular dementia and other VCI. (2) To compare the effects of different cholinesterase inhibitors on cognition and adverse events, using network meta-analysis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's register, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Science), LILACS (BIREME), ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on 19 August 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials in which donepezil, galantamine, or rivastigmine was compared with placebo or in which the drugs were compared with each other in adults with vascular dementia or other VCI (excluding cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL)). We included all drug doses and routes of administration.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently identified eligible trials, extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and applied the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. The primary outcomes were cognition, clinical global impression, function (performance of activities of daily living), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes were serious adverse events, incidence of development of new dementia, behavioural disturbance, carer burden, institutionalisation, quality of life and death. For the pairwise analyses, we pooled outcome data at similar time points using random-effects methods. We also performed a network meta-analysis using Bayesian methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We included eight trials (4373 participants) in the review. Three trials studied donepezil 5 mg or 10 mg daily (n= 2193); three trials studied rivastigmine at a maximum daily dose of 3 to 12 mg (n= 800); and two trials studied galantamine at a maximum daily dose of 16 to 24 mg (n= 1380). The trials included participants with possible or probable vascular dementia or cognitive impairment following stroke. Mean ages were between 72.2 and 73.9 years. All of the trials were at low or unclear risk of bias in all domains, and the evidence ranged from very low to high level of certainty. For cognition, the results showed that donepezil 5 mg improves cognition slightly, although the size of the effect is unlikely to be clinically important (mean difference (MD) -0.92 Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) points (range 0 to 70), 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.44 to -0.40; high-certainty evidence). Donepezil 10 mg (MD -2.21 ADAS-Cog points, 95% CI -3.07 to -1.35; moderate-certainty evidence) and galantamine 16 to 24 mg (MD -2.01 ADAS-Cog point, 95%CI -3.18 to -0.85; moderate-certainty evidence) probably also improve cognition, although the larger effect estimates still may not be clinically important. With low certainty, there may be little to no effect of rivastigmine 3 to 12 mg daily on cognition (MD 0.03 ADAS-Cog points, 95% CI -3.04 to 3.10; low-certainty evidence). Adverse events reported in the studies included nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhoea, dizziness, headache, and hypertension. The results showed that there was probably little to no difference between donepezil 5 mg and placebo in the number of adverse events (odds ratio (OR) 1.22, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.58; moderate-certainty evidence), but there were slightly more adverse events with donepezil 10 mg than with placebo (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.15; high-certainty evidence). The effect of rivastigmine 3 to 12 mg on adverse events was very uncertain (OR 3.21, 95% CI 0.36 to 28.88; very low-certainty evidence). Galantamine 16 to 24 mg is probably associated with a slight excess of adverse events over placebo (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.43; moderate-certainty evidence). In the network meta-analysis (NMA), we included cognition to represent benefit, and adverse events to represent harm. All drugs ranked above placebo for cognition and below placebo for adverse events. We found donepezil 10 mg to rank first in terms of benefit, but third in terms of harms, when considering the network estimates and quality of evidence. Galantamine was ranked second in terms of both benefit and harm. Rivastigmine had the lowest ranking of the cholinesterase inhibitors in both benefit and harm NMA estimates, but this may reflect possibly inadequate doses received by some trial participants and small trial sample sizes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found moderate- to high-certainty evidence that donepezil 5 mg, donepezil 10 mg, and galantamine have a slight beneficial effect on cognition in people with VCI, although the size of the change is unlikely to be clinically important. Donepezil 10 mg and galantamine 16 to 24 mg are probably associated with more adverse events than placebo. The evidence for rivastigmine was less certain. The data suggest that donepezil 10 mg has the greatest effect on cognition, but at the cost of adverse effects. The effect is modest, but in the absence of any other treatments, people living with VCI may still wish to consider the use of these agents. Further research into rivastigmine is needed, including the use of transdermal patches.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid ABeta42 for the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia in participants diagnosed with any dementia subtype in a specialist care setting

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a syndrome that comprises many differing pathologies, including Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD), vascular dementia (VaD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). People may benefit from knowing the type of dementia they live with, as this could inform prognosis and may allow for tailored treatment. Beta-amyloid (1-42) (ABeta42) is a protein which decreases in both the plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of people living with ADD, when compared to people with no dementia. However, it is not clear if changes in ABeta42 are specific to ADD or if they are also seen in other types of dementia. It is possible that ABeta42 could help differentiate ADD from other dementia subtypes.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of plasma and CSF ABeta42 for distinguishing ADD from other dementia subtypes in people who meet the criteria for a dementia syndrome.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, and nine other databases up to 18 February 2020. We checked reference lists of any relevant systematic reviews to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered cross-sectional studies that differentiated people with ADD from other dementia subtypes. Eligible studies required measurement of participant plasma or CSF ABeta42 levels and clinical assessment for dementia subtype.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Seven review authors working independently screened the titles and abstracts generated by the searches. We collected data on study characteristics and test accuracy. We used the second version of the 'Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies' (QUADAS-2) tool to assess internal and external validity of results. We extracted data into 2 x 2 tables, cross-tabulating index test results (ABeta42) with the reference standard (diagnostic criteria for each dementia subtype). We performed meta-analyses using bivariate, random-effects models. We calculated pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the primary analysis, we assessed accuracy of plasma or CSF ABeta42 for distinguishing ADD from other mixed dementia types (non-ADD). We then assessed accuracy of ABeta42 for differentiating ADD from specific dementia types: VaD, FTD, dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), alcohol-related cognitive disorder (ARCD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). To determine test-positive cases, we used the ABeta42 thresholds employed in the respective primary studies. We then performed sensitivity analyses restricted to those studies that used common thresholds for ABeta42.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 39 studies (5000 participants) that used CSF ABeta42 levels to differentiate ADD from other subtypes of dementia. No studies of plasma ABeta42 met the inclusion criteria. No studies were rated as low risk of bias across all QUADAS-2 domains. High risk of bias was found predominantly in the domains of patient selection (28 studies) and index test (25 studies). The pooled estimates for differentiating ADD from other dementia subtypes were as follows: ADD from non-ADD: sensitivity 79% (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85), specificity 60% (95% CI 0.52 to 0.67), 13 studies, 1704 participants, 880 participants with ADD; ADD from VaD: sensitivity 79% (95% CI 0.75 to 0.83), specificity 69% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.81), 11 studies, 1151 participants, 941 participants with ADD; ADD from FTD: sensitivity 85% (95% CI 0.79 to 0.89), specificity 72% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.84), 17 studies, 1948 participants, 1371 participants with ADD; ADD from DLB: sensitivity 76% (95% CI 0.69 to 0.82), specificity 67% (95% CI 0.52 to 0.79), nine studies, 1929 participants, 1521 participants with ADD. Across all dementia subtypes, sensitivity was greater than specificity, and the balance of sensitivity and specificity was dependent on the threshold used to define test positivity.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our review indicates that measuring ABeta42 levels in CSF may help differentiate ADD from other dementia subtypes, but the test is imperfect and tends to misdiagnose those with non-ADD as having ADD. We would caution against the use of CSF ABeta42 alone for dementia classification. However, ABeta42 may have value as an adjunct to a full clinical assessment, to aid dementia diagnosis.

Increased care at discharge from COVID-19: The association between pre-admission frailty and increased care needs after hospital discharge; a multicentre European observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed significant pressure on health and social care. Survivors of COVID-19 may be left with substantial functional deficits requiring ongoing care. We aimed to determine whether pre-admission frailty was associated with increased care needs at discharge for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients were included if aged over 18 years old and admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between 27 February and 10 June 2020. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was used to assess pre-admission frailty status. Admission and discharge care levels were recorded. Data were analysed using a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, comorbidities, and admission CRP as a marker of severity of disease.

RESULTS

Thirteen hospitals included patients: 1671 patients were screened, and 840 were excluded including, 521 patients who died before discharge (31.1%). Of the 831 patients who were discharged, the median age was 71 years (IQR, 58-81 years) and 369 (44.4%) were women. The median length of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR 6-24). Using the CFS, 438 (47.0%) were living with frailty (≥ CFS 5), and 193 (23.2%) required an increase in the level of care provided. Multivariable analysis showed that frailty was associated with an increase in care needs compared to patients without frailty (CFS 1-3). The adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were as follows: CFS 4, 1.99 (0.97-4.11); CFS 5, 3.77 (1.94-7.32); CFS 6, 4.04 (2.09-7.82); CFS 7, 2.16 (1.12-4.20); and CFS 8, 3.19 (1.06-9.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Around a quarter of patients admitted with COVID-19 had increased care needs at discharge. Pre-admission frailty was strongly associated with the need for an increased level of care at discharge. Our results have implications for service planning and public health policy as well as a person's functional outcome, suggesting that frailty screening should be utilised for predictive modelling and early individualised discharge planning.

Informant-based screening tools for diagnosis of dementia, an overview of systematic reviews of test accuracy studies protocol

BACKGROUND

Robust diagnosis of dementia requires an understanding of the accuracy of the available diagnostic tests. Informant questionnaires are frequently used to assess for dementia in clinical practice. Recent systematic reviews have sought to establish the diagnostic test accuracy of various dementia informant screening tools. However, most reviews to date have focused on a single diagnostic tool and this does not address which tool is 'best'. A key aim of the overview of systematic reviews is to present a disparate evidence base in a single, easy to access platform.

METHODS

We will conduct an overview of systematic reviews in which we 'review the systematic reviews' of diagnostic test accuracy studies evaluating informant questionnaires for dementia. As an overview of systematic reviews of test accuracy is a relatively novel approach, we will use this review to explore methods for visual representation of complex data, for highlighting evidence gaps and for indirect comparative analyses. We will create a list of informant tools by consulting with dementia experts. We will search 6 databases (EMBASE (OVID); Health and Psychosocial Instruments (OVID); Medline (OVID); CINAHL (EBSCO); PSYCHinfo (EBSCO) and the PROSPERO registry of review protocols) to identify systematic reviews that describe the diagnostic test accuracy of informant questionnaires for dementia. We will assess review quality using the AMSTAR-2 (Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews) and assess reporting quality using PRISMA-DTA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies) checklists. We will collate the identified reviews to create an 'evidence map' that highlights where evidence does and does not exist in relation to informant questionnaires. We will pool sensitivity and specificity data via meta-analysis to generate a diagnostic test accuracy summary statistic for each informant questionnaire. If data allow, we will perform a statistical comparison of the diagnostic test accuracy of each informant questionnaire using a network approach.

DISCUSSION

Our overview of systematic reviews will provide a concise summary of the diagnostic test accuracy of informant tools and highlight areas where evidence is currently lacking in this regard. It will also apply network meta-analysis techniques to a new area.

Nosocomial COVID-19 infection: examining the risk of mortality. The COPE-Nosocomial Study (COVID in Older PEople)

Background

Hospital admissions for non-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathology have decreased significantly. It is believed that this may be due to public anxiety about acquiring COVID-19 infection in hospital and the subsequent risk of mortality.

Aim

To identify patients who acquire COVID-19 in hospital (nosocomial COVID-19 infection (NC)) and their risk of mortality compared to those with community-acquired COVID-19 (CAC) infection.

Methods

The COPE-Nosocomial Study was an observational cohort study. The primary outcome was the time to all-cause mortality (estimated with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)), and secondary outcomes were day 7 mortality and the time-to-discharge. A mixed-effects multivariable Cox's proportional hazards model was used, adjusted for demographics and comorbidities.

Findings

The study included 1564 patients from 10 hospital sites throughout the UK, and one in Italy, and collected outcomes on patients admitted up to April 28^th, 2020. In all, 12.5% of COVID-19 infections were acquired in hospital; 425 (27.2%) patients with COVID died. The median survival time in NC patients was 14 days compared with 10 days in CAC patients. In the primary analysis, NC infection was associated with lower mortality rate (aHR: 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51–0.98). Secondary outcomes found no difference in day 7 mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.47–1.31), but NC patients required longer time in hospital during convalescence (aHR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37–0.66).

Conclusion

The minority of COVID-19 cases were the result of NC transmission. No COVID-19 infection comes without risk, but patients with NC had a lower risk of mortality compared to CAC infection; however, caution should be taken when interpreting this finding.

Aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the prevention of dementia

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a worldwide concern. Its global prevalence is increasing. At present, there is no medication licensed to prevent or delay the onset of dementia. Inflammation has been suggested as a key factor in dementia pathogenesis. Therefore, medications with anti-inflammatory properties could be beneficial for dementia prevention.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and adverse effects of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for the primary or secondary prevention of dementia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the specialised register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group up to 9 January 2020. ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of several major healthcare databases, trial registries and grey literature sources. We ran additional searches across MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP) and six other databases to ensure that the searches were as comprehensive and up-to-date as possible. We also reviewed citations of reference lists of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) comparing aspirin or other NSAIDs with placebo for the primary or secondary prevention of dementia. We included trials with cognitively healthy participants (primary prevention) or participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or cognitive complaints (secondary prevention).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. We rated the strength of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four RCTs with 23,187 participants. Because of the diversity of these trials, we did not combine data to give summary estimates, but presented a narrative description of the evidence. We identified one trial (19,114 participants) comparing low-dose aspirin (100 mg once daily) to placebo. Participants were aged 70 years or older with no history of dementia, cardiovascular disease or physical disability. Interim analysis indicated no significant treatment effect and the trial was terminated slightly early after a median of 4.7 years' follow-up. There was no evidence of a difference in incidence of dementia between aspirin and placebo groups (risk ratio (RR) 0.98, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.15; high-certainty evidence). Participants allocated aspirin had higher rates of major bleeding (RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.60, high-certainty evidence) and slightly higher mortality (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.28; high-certainty evidence). There was no evidence of a difference in activities of daily living between groups (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.02; high-certainty evidence). We identified three trials comparing non-aspirin NSAIDs to placebo. All three trials were terminated early due to adverse events associated with NSAIDs reported in other trials. One trial (2528 participants) investigated the cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor celecoxib (200 mg twice daily) and the non-selective NSAID naproxen (220 mg twice daily) for preventing dementia in cognitively healthy older adults with a family history of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Median follow-up was 734 days. Combining both NSAID treatment arms, there was no evidence of a difference in the incidence of AD between participants allocated NSAIDs and those allocated placebo (RR 1.91, 95% CI 0.89 to 4.10; moderate-certainty evidence). There was also no evidence of a difference in rates of myocardial infarction (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.61 to 2.40), stroke (RR 1.82, 95% CI 0.76 to 4.37) or mortality (RR 1.37, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.43) between treatment groups (all moderate-certainty evidence). One trial (88 participants) assessed the effectiveness of celecoxib (200 mg or 400 mg daily) in delaying cognitive decline in participants aged 40 to 81 years with mild age-related memory loss but normal memory performance scores. Mean duration of follow-up was 17.6 months in the celecoxib group and 18.1 months in the placebo group. There was no evidence of a difference between groups in test scores in any of six cognitive domains. Participants allocated celecoxib experienced more gastrointestinal adverse events than those allocated placebo (RR 2.66, 95% CI 1.05 to 6.75; low-certainty evidence). One trial (1457 participants) assessed the effectiveness of the COX-2 inhibitor rofecoxib (25 mg once daily) in delaying or preventing a diagnosis of AD in participants with MCI. Median duration of study participation was 115 weeks in the rofecoxib group and 130 weeks in the placebo group. There was a higher incidence of AD in the rofecoxib than the placebo group (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.72; moderate-certainty evidence). There was no evidence of a difference between groups in cardiovascular adverse events (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.66; moderate-certainty evidence) or mortality (RR 1.62, 95% CI 0.85 to 3.05; moderate-certainty evidence). Participants allocated rofecoxib had more upper gastrointestinal adverse events (RR 3.53, 95% CI 1.17 to 10.68; moderate-certainty evidence). Reported annual mean difference scores showed no evidence of a difference between groups in activities of daily living (year 1: no data available; year 2: 0.0, 95% CI -0.1 to 0.2; year 3: 0.1, 95% CI -0.1 to 0.3; year 4: 0.1, 95% CI -0.1 to 0.4; moderate-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence to support the use of low-dose aspirin or other NSAIDs of any class (celecoxib, rofecoxib or naproxen) for the prevention of dementia, but there was evidence of harm. Although there were limitations in the available evidence, it seems unlikely that there is any need for further trials of low-dose aspirin for dementia prevention. If future studies of NSAIDs for dementia prevention are planned, they will need to be cognisant of the safety concerns arising from the existing studies.

Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination III (ACE-III) and mini-ACE for the detection of dementia and mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

The number of new cases of dementia is projected to rise significantly over the next decade. Thus, there is a pressing need for accurate tools to detect cognitive impairment in routine clinical practice. The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination III (ACE-III), and the mini-ACE are brief, bedside cognitive screens that have previously reported good sensitivity and specificity. The quality and quantity of this evidence has not, however, been robustly investigated.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic test accuracy of the ACE-III and mini-ACE for the detection of dementia, dementia sub-types, and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at published thresholds in primary, secondary, and community care settings in patients presenting with, or at high risk of, cognitive decline.

SEARCH METHODS

We performed the search for this review on 13 February 2019. We searched MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), BIOSIS Previews (ISI Web of Knowledge), Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Knowledge), PsycINFO (OvidSP), and LILACS (BIREME). We applied no language or date restrictions to the electronic searches; and to maximise sensitivity we did not use methodological filters. The search yielded 5655 records, of which 2937 remained after we removed duplicates. We identified a further four articles through PubMed 'related articles'. We found no additional records through reference list citation searching, or grey literature.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Cross-sectional studies investigating the accuracy of the ACE-III or mini-ACE in patients presenting with, or at high risk of, cognitive decline were suitable for inclusion. We excluded case-control, delayed verification and longitudinal studies, and studies which investigated a secondary cause of dementia. We did not restrict studies by language; and we included those with pre-specified thresholds (88 and 82 for the ACE-III, and 21 or 25 for the mini-ACE).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We extracted information on study and participant characteristics and used information on dementia and MCI prevalence, sensitivity, specificity, and sample size to generate 2×2 tables in Review Manager 5. We assessed methodological quality of included studies using the QUADAS-2 tool; and we assessed the quality of study reporting with the STARDdem tool. Due to significant heterogeneity in the included studies and an insufficient number of studies, we did not perform meta-analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

This review identified seven studies (1711 participants in total) of cross-sectional design, four examining the accuracy of the ACE-III, and three of the mini-ACE. Overall, the majority of studies were at low or unclear risk of bias and applicability on quality assessment. Studies were at high risk of bias for the index test (n = 4) and reference standard (n = 2). Study reporting was variable across the included studies. No studies investigated dementia sub-types. The ACE-III had variable sensitivity across thresholds and patient populations (range for dementia at 82 and 88: 82% to 97%, n = 2; range for MCI at 88: 75% to 77%, n = 2), but with more variability in specificity (range for dementia: 4% to 77%, n = 2; range for MCI: 89% to 92%, n = 2). Similarly, sensitivity of the mini-ACE was variable (range for dementia at 21 and 25: 70% to 99%, n = 3; range for MCI at 21 and 25: 64% to 95%, n = 3) but with more variability specificity (range for dementia: 32% to 100%, n = 3; range for MCI: 46% to 79%, n = 3). We identified no studies in primary care populations: four studies were conducted in outpatient clinics, one study in an in-patient setting, and in two studies the settings were unclear.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient information in terms of both quality and quantity to recommend the use of either the ACE-III or mini-ACE for the screening of dementia or MCI in patients presenting with, or at high risk of, cognitive decline. No studies were conducted in a primary care setting so the accuracy of the ACE-III and mini-ACE in this setting are not known. Lower thresholds (82 for the ACE-III, and 21 for the mini-ACE) provide better specificity with acceptable sensitivity and may provide better clinical utility. The ACE-III and mini-ACE should only be used to support the diagnosis as an adjunct to a full clinical assessment. Further research is needed to determine the utility of the ACE-III and mini-ACE for the detection of dementia, dementia sub-types, and MCI. Specifically, the optimal thresholds for detection need to be determined in a variety of settings (primary care, secondary care (inpatient and outpatient), and community services), prevalences, and languages.

Mini-Cog for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias within a secondary care setting

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias relies on clinical assessment. There is a high prevalence of cognitive disorders, including undiagnosed dementia in secondary care settings. Short cognitive tests can be helpful in identifying those who require further specialist diagnostic assessment; however, there is a lack of consensus around the optimal tools to use in clinical practice. The Mini-Cog is a short cognitive test comprising three-item recall and a clock-drawing test that is used in secondary care settings.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Cog for detecting Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias in a secondary care setting. The secondary objectives were to investigate the heterogeneity of test accuracy in the included studies and potential sources of heterogeneity. These potential sources of heterogeneity will include the baseline prevalence of dementia in study samples, thresholds used to determine positive test results, the type of dementia (Alzheimer's disease dementia or all causes of dementia), and aspects of study design related to study quality.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following sources in September 2012, with an update to 12 March 2019: Cochrane Dementia Group Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), BIOSIS Previews (Web of Knowledge), Science Citation Index (ISI Web of Knowledge), PsycINFO (OvidSP), and LILACS (BIREME). We made no exclusions with regard to language of Mini-Cog administration or language of publication, using translation services where necessary.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included cross-sectional studies and excluded case-control designs, due to the risk of bias. We selected those studies that included the Mini-Cog as an index test to diagnose dementia where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with reference standard clinical assessment using standardised dementia diagnostic criteria. We only included studies in secondary care settings (including inpatient and outpatient hospital participants).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles and abstracts generated by the electronic database searches. Two review authors independently checked full papers for eligibility and extracted data. We determined quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) using the QUADAS-2 tool. We extracted data into two-by-two tables to allow calculation of accuracy metrics for individual studies, reporting the sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals of these measures, summarising them graphically using forest plots.

MAIN RESULTS

Three studies with a total of 2560 participants fulfilled the inclusion criteria, set in neuropsychology outpatient referrals, outpatients attending a general medicine clinic, and referrals to a memory clinic. Only n = 1415 (55.3%) of participants were included in the analysis to inform evaluation of Mini-Cog test accuracy, due to the selective use of available data by study authors. There were concerns related to high risk of bias with respect to patient selection, and unclear risk of bias and high concerns related to index test conduct and applicability. In all studies, the Mini-Cog was retrospectively derived from historic data sets. No studies included acute general hospital inpatients. The prevalence of dementia ranged from 32.2% to 87.3%. The sensitivities of the Mini-Cog in the individual studies were reported as 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 0.71), 0.60 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.72), and 0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.90). The specificity of the Mini-Cog for each individual study was 0.87 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.92), 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73), and 1.00 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.00). We did not perform meta-analysis due to concerns related to risk of bias and heterogeneity.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review identified only a limited number of diagnostic test accuracy studies using Mini-Cog in secondary care settings. Those identified were at high risk of bias related to patient selection and high concerns related to index test conduct and applicability. The evidence was indirect, as all studies evaluated Mini-Cog differently from the review question, where it was anticipated that studies would conduct Mini-Cog and independently but contemporaneously perform a reference standard assessment to diagnose dementia. The pattern of test accuracy varied across the three studies. Future research should evaluate Mini-Cog as a test in itself, rather than derived from other neuropsychological assessments. There is also a need for evaluation of the feasibility of the Mini-Cog for the diagnosis of dementia to help adequately determine its role in the clinical pathway.

Cholinesterase inhibitors for vascular dementia and other vascular cognitive impairments: a network meta‐analysis

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Intervention). The objectives are as follows:

To assess the benefits and harms of each cholinesterase inhibitor in the treatment of adults with VCI To compare cholinesterase inhibitors for efficacy and safety in people with VCI

AD-8 for detection of dementia across a variety of healthcare settings

BACKGROUND

Dementia assessment often involves initial screening, using a brief tool, followed by more detailed assessment where required. The AD-8 is a short questionnaire, completed by a suitable 'informant' who knows the person well. AD-8 is designed to assess change in functional performance secondary to cognitive change.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the informant-based AD-8 questionnaire, in detection of all-cause (undifferentiated) dementia in adults. Where data were available, we described the following: the diagnostic accuracy of the AD-8 at various predefined threshold scores; the diagnostic accuracy of the AD-8 for each healthcare setting and the effects of heterogeneity on the reported diagnostic accuracy of the AD-8.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following sources on 27 May 2014, with an update to 7 June 2018: ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), MEDLINE (Ovid SP), Embase (Ovid SP), PsycINFO (Ovid SP), BIOSIS Previews (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), Web of Science Core Collection (includes Conference Proceedings Citation Index) (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), CINAHL (EBSCOhost) and LILACS (BIREME). We checked reference lists of relevant studies and reviews, used searches of known relevant studies in PubMed to track related articles, and contacted research groups conducting work on the AD-8 to try to find additional studies. We developed a sensitive search strategy and used standardised database subject headings as appropriate. Foreign language publications were translated.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected those studies which included the AD-8 to assess for the presence of dementia and where dementia diagnosis was confirmed with clinical assessment. We only included those studies where the AD-8 was used as an informant assessment. We made no exclusions in relation to healthcare setting, language of AD-8 or the AD-8 score used to define a 'test positive' case.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by electronic database searches, and reviewed abstracts of potentially relevant studies. Two independent assessors checked full papers for eligibility and extracted data. We extracted data into two-by-two tables to allow calculation of accuracy metrics for individual studies. We then created summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios using the bivariate approach and plotting results in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) space. We determined quality assessment (risk of bias and applicability) using the QUADAS-2 tool.

MAIN RESULTS

From 36 papers describing AD-8 test accuracy, we included 10 papers. We utilised data from nine papers with 4045 individuals, 1107 of whom (27%) had a clinical diagnosis of dementia. Pooled analysis of seven studies, using an AD-8 informant cut-off score of two, indicated that sensitivity was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86 to 0.96); specificity was 0.64 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.82); the positive likelihood ratio was 2.53 (95% CI 1.38 to 4.64); and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.12 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.21). Pooled analysis of five studies, using an AD-8 informant cut-off score of three, indicated that sensitivity was 0.91 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.96); specificity was 0.76 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.89); the positive likelihood ratio was 3.86 (95% CI 2.03 to 7.34); and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.12 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.24).Four studies were conducted in community settings; four were in secondary care (one in the acute hospital); and one study was in primary care. The AD-8 has a higher relative sensitivity (1.11, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.21), but lower relative specificity (0.51, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.09) in secondary care compared to community care settings.There was heterogeneity across the included studies. Dementia prevalence rate varied from 12% to 90% of included participants. The tool was also used in various different languages. Among all the included studies there was evidence of risk of bias. Issues included the selection of participants, conduct of index test, and flow of assessment procedures.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The high sensitivity of the AD-8 suggests it can be used to identify adults who may benefit from further specialist assessment and diagnosis, but is not a diagnostic test in itself. This pattern of high sensitivity and lower specificity is often suited to a screening test. Test accuracy varies by setting, however data in primary care and acute hospital settings are limited. This review identified significant heterogeneity and risk of bias, which may affect the validity of its summary findings.