Does Adding Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Improve the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score in Women? Data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Cardiometabolic risk factors in women: what's sauce for the goose is not sauce for the gander

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this review was to discuss cardiometabolic risk factors that affect women.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent calls to action to address cardiometabolic risk factors specific to women relate to increasing evidence of sex-specific differences in patient-related, drug-related, and socio-demographic factors leading to sub-optimal care of women.

SUMMARY

Certain aspects of common modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes) affect female individuals more adversely. Additionally, there are risk factors or enhancers that particularly affect cardiometabolic health in women [e.g. premature menopause, polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), familial partial lipodystrophy, socio-cultural factors]. Understanding these risk factors may provide insight on how to improve cardiometabolic outcomes in women.

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Predicted 30-Year Risk of Maternal Cardiovascular Disease 2-7 Years After Delivery

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether adverse pregnancy outcomes are associated with a higher predicted 30-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD; ie, coronary artery disease or stroke).

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of the prospective Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study-Monitoring Mothers-to-Be Heart Health Study longitudinal cohort. The exposures were adverse pregnancy outcomes during the first pregnancy (ie, gestational diabetes mellitus [GDM], hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, preterm birth, and small- and large-for-gestational-age [SGA, LGA] birth weight) modeled individually and secondarily as the cumulative number of adverse pregnancy outcomes (ie, none, one, two or more). The outcome was the 30-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD predicted with the Framingham Risk Score assessed at 2-7 years after delivery. Risk was measured both continuously in increments of 1% and categorically, with high predicted risk defined as a predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD of 10% or more. Linear regression and modified Poisson models were adjusted for baseline covariates.

RESULTS

Among 4,273 individuals who were assessed at a median of 3.1 years after delivery (interquartile range 2.5-3.7), the median predicted 30-year atherosclerotic CVD risk was 2.2% (interquartile range 1.4-3.4), and 1.8% had high predicted risk. Individuals with GDM (least mean square 5.93 vs 4.19, adjusted β=1.45, 95% CI, 1.14-1.75), hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (4.95 vs 4.22, adjusted β=0.49, 95% CI, 0.31-0.68), and preterm birth (4.81 vs 4.27, adjusted β=0.47, 95% CI, 0.24-0.70) were more likely to have a higher absolute risk of atherosclerotic CVD. Similarly, individuals with GDM (8.7% vs 1.4%, adjusted risk ratio [RR] 2.02, 95% CI, 1.14-3.59), hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (4.4% vs 1.4%, adjusted RR 1.91, 95% CI, 1.17-3.13), and preterm birth (5.0% vs 1.5%, adjusted RR 2.26, 95% CI, 1.30-3.93) were more likely to have a high predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD. A greater number of adverse pregnancy outcomes within the first birth was associated with progressively greater risks, including per 1% atherosclerotic CVD risk (one adverse pregnancy outcome: 4.86 vs 4.09, adjusted β=0.59, 95% CI, 0.43-0.75; two or more adverse pregnancy outcomes: 5.51 vs 4.09, adjusted β=1.16, 95% CI, 0.82-1.50), and a high predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD (one adverse pregnancy outcome: 3.8% vs 1.0%, adjusted RR 2.33, 95% CI, 1.40-3.88; two or more adverse pregnancy outcomes: 8.7 vs 1.0%, RR 3.43, 95% CI, 1.74-6.74). Small and large for gestational age were not consistently associated with a higher atherosclerotic CVD risk.

CONCLUSION

Individuals who experienced adverse pregnancy outcomes in their first birth were more likely to have a higher predicted 30-year risk of CVD measured at 2-7 years after delivery. The magnitude of risk was higher with a greater number of adverse pregnancy outcomes experienced.

Pregnancy History at 40 Years of Age as a Marker of Cardiovascular Risk

BACKGROUND

Individual pregnancy complications are associated with increased maternal risk of cardiovascular disease. We assessed the link between a woman's total pregnancy history at 40 years of age and her relative risk of dying from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based prospective study combined several Norwegian registries covering the period 1967 to 2020. We identified 854 442 women born after 1944 or registered with a pregnancy in 1967 or later, and surviving to 40 years of age. The main outcome was the time to ASCVD mortality through age 69 years. The exposure was a woman's number of recorded pregnancies (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4) and the number of those with complications (preterm delivery <35 gestational weeks, preeclampsia, placental abruption, perinatal death, and term or near-term birth weight <2700 g). Cox models provided estimates of hazard ratios across exposure categories. The group with the lowest ASCVD mortality was that with 3 pregnancies and no complications, which served as the reference group. Among women reaching 40 years of age, risk of ASCVD mortality through 69 years of age increased with the number of complicated pregnancies in a strong dose-response fashion, reaching 23-fold increased risk (95% CI, 10-51) for women with 4 complicated pregnancies. Based on pregnancy history alone, 19% of women at 40 years of age (including nulliparous women) had an increased ASCVD mortality risk in the range of 2.5- to 5-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy history at 40 years of age is strongly associated with ASCVD mortality. Further research should explore how much pregnancy history at 40 years of age adds to established cardiovascular disease risk factors in predicting cardiovascular disease mortality.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Prevalence of Sex-Specific Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors, Medical Risk, and Engagement in Health-Promoting Behaviours in Premenopausal Females

Background

Several sex-specific risk factors (SS-RFs) increase a women's risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) but are often overlooked during risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to identify the prevalence of SS-RFs and assess CVD risk, knowledge, perceptions and behaviours in premenopausal Canadian women.

Methods

An online survey was distributed across Canada to premenopausal biological females (19-49 years of age). The survey gathered demographics, medical history, engagement in health-promoting behaviours, and knowledge and perceptions of CVD risk. CVD risk was calculated using medical risk and SS-RFs were tabulated from medical history.

Results

A total of 2559 participants (33 ± 8 years) completed the survey. The majority of our sample (82%) was classified as low medical risk. Of those classified as low risk, 35% had at least 1 SS-RF. Of high-risk individuals, 70% underestimated their risk, 21% of whom perceived themselves as low risk. Engagement in health behaviours was suboptimal. Knowledge of traditional CVD risk factors and prevention was relatively high; however, less than one-half were aware of SS-RFs such as early menopause (39.4%).

Conclusions

Considering both traditional and SS-RFs, 47% of premenopausal Canadian women may be at risk for developing CVD. Of those deemed low medical risk for developing CVD, more than one-third reported having at least 1 SS-RF. Canadian women have poor knowledge of the risks associated with SS-RFs, lack sufficient awareness of the need for prevention of CVD, and are not engaging in sufficient health-promoting behaviours to mitigate future CVD risk.

Mammographic breast density and cardiovascular disease risk in women

AIMS

We aimed to determine the predictive role of mammographic breast density in addition to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) on subsequent CVD events in women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study included 4,268,579 women aged ≥40 years who underwent mammography screening between 2009 and 2010 with follow-up until 2020. Breast density was reported following the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. Primary outcomes included coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, and heart failure. The incremental predictive ability of breast density added to the FRS model was assessed using the ROC and net reclassification index (NRI) among all women and strata based on FRS risk categories (<5% as low-risk, 5%-10% as moderate-risk, and ≥10% as high-risk). In total, 135,475 CVD events were recorded after a median follow-up of 10.9 years. A lower category of breast density was associated with a higher risk of CVD. Compared to the extremely dense breast group, the hazard ratios (95% CI) for CVDs were 1.12 (1.09-1.14), 1.19 (1.17-1.22), and 1.29 (1.26-1.32) in women with heterogeneously dense, scattered fibroglandular densities, and almost entirely fat breast density, respectively. Adding breast density to the FRS showed a slight improvement in AUROC but a modest improvement in NRI; the C-statistic difference was 0.083% (95% CI 0.069-0.096) with a 7.15% (6.85-7.69) increase in NRI, with the strongest improvement observed in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

Mammographic breast density is an independent predictor of incident CVD among women. The addition of mammographic breast density to FRS improves the prediction of CVDs, especially in low-risk individuals.

Pregnancy complications in last pregnancy and mothers' long-term cardiovascular mortality: does the relation differ from that of complications in first pregnancy? A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Women who experience complications in first pregnancy are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life. Little corresponding knowledge is available for complications in later pregnancies. Therefore, we assessed complications (preeclampsia, preterm birth, and offspring small for gestational age) in first and last pregnancies and the risk of long-term maternal CVD death, taking women´s complete reproduction into account.

DATA AND METHODS

We linked data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to the national Cause of Death Registry. We followed women whose first birth took place during 1967-2013, from the date of their last birth until death, or December 31st 2020, whichever occurred first. We analysed risk of CVD death until 69 years of age according to any complications in last pregnancy. Using Cox regression analysis, we adjusted for maternal age at first birth and level of education.

RESULTS

Women with any complications in their last or first pregnancy were at higher risk of CVD death than mothers with two-lifetime births and no pregnancy complications (reference). For example, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for women with four births and any complications only in the last pregnancy was 2.85 (95% CI, 1.93-4.20). If a complication occurred in the first pregnancy only, the aHR was 1.74 (1.24-2.45). Corresponding hazard ratios for women with two births were 1.82 (CI, 1.59-2.08) and 1.41 (1.26-1.58), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk for CVD death was higher among mothers with complications only in their last pregnancy compared to women with no complications, and also higher compared to mothers with a complication only in their first pregnancy.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Women: Progress so Far and Progress to Come

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. Nonetheless, there exist several uncertainties in the prediction, diagnosis, and treatment of cardiovascular disease in women. A cornerstone in the prediction of cardiovascular disease is the implementation of risk scores. A variety of pregnancy- and reproductive-factors have been associated with lower or higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Consequently, the question has been raised, whether these female-specific factors also provide added value to cardiovascular risk prediction. In this review, we provide an overview of the existing literature on sex differences in the association of established cardiovascular risk factors with cardiovascular disease and the relation between female-specific factors and cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, we systematically reviewed the literature for studies that assessed the added value of female-specific factors beyond already established cardiovascular risk factors. Adding female-specific factors to models containing established cardiovascular risk factors has led to little or no significant improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular events. However, analyses primarily relied on data from women aged ≥40 years. Future investigations are needed to quantify whether pregnancy-related factors improve cardiovascular risk prediction in young women in order to support adequate treatment of risk factors and enhance prevention of cardiovascular disease in women.

Protocol for development and validation of postpartum cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model incorporating reproductive and pregnancy-related candidate predictors

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death among women. CVD is associated with reduced quality of life, significant treatment and management costs, and lost productivity. Estimating the risk of CVD would help patients at a higher risk of CVD to initiate preventive measures to reduce risk of disease. The Framingham risk score and the QRISK® score are two risk prediction models used to evaluate future CVD risk in the UK. Although the algorithms perform well in the general population, they do not take into account pregnancy complications, which are well known risk factors for CVD in women and have been highlighted in a recent umbrella review. We plan to develop a robust CVD risk prediction model to assess the additional value of pregnancy risk factors in risk prediction of CVD in women postpartum.

METHODS

Using candidate predictors from QRISK®-3, the umbrella review identified from literature and from discussions with clinical experts and patient research partners, we will use time-to-event Cox proportional hazards models to develop and validate a 10-year risk prediction model for CVD postpartum using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database for development and internal validation of the algorithm and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank for external validation. We will then assess the value of additional candidate predictors to the QRISK®-3 in our internal and external validations.

DISCUSSION

The developed risk prediction model will incorporate pregnancy-related factors which have been shown to be associated with future risk of CVD but have not been taken into account in current risk prediction models. Our study will therefore highlight the importance of incorporating pregnancy-related risk factors into risk prediction modeling for CVD postpartum.