Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Pregnancy History at 40 Years of Age as a Marker of Cardiovascular Risk

BACKGROUND

Individual pregnancy complications are associated with increased maternal risk of cardiovascular disease. We assessed the link between a woman's total pregnancy history at 40 years of age and her relative risk of dying from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based prospective study combined several Norwegian registries covering the period 1967 to 2020. We identified 854 442 women born after 1944 or registered with a pregnancy in 1967 or later, and surviving to 40 years of age. The main outcome was the time to ASCVD mortality through age 69 years. The exposure was a woman's number of recorded pregnancies (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4) and the number of those with complications (preterm delivery <35 gestational weeks, preeclampsia, placental abruption, perinatal death, and term or near-term birth weight <2700 g). Cox models provided estimates of hazard ratios across exposure categories. The group with the lowest ASCVD mortality was that with 3 pregnancies and no complications, which served as the reference group. Among women reaching 40 years of age, risk of ASCVD mortality through 69 years of age increased with the number of complicated pregnancies in a strong dose-response fashion, reaching 23-fold increased risk (95% CI, 10-51) for women with 4 complicated pregnancies. Based on pregnancy history alone, 19% of women at 40 years of age (including nulliparous women) had an increased ASCVD mortality risk in the range of 2.5- to 5-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy history at 40 years of age is strongly associated with ASCVD mortality. Further research should explore how much pregnancy history at 40 years of age adds to established cardiovascular disease risk factors in predicting cardiovascular disease mortality.

Heart failure describing the underlying cause of death: a misconception, lack of information on the true underlying causes, or both?

AIM

The underlying cause of death represents the most important information on death certificates. Often, conditions that cannot represent a true underlying cause of death are listed as such. This phenomenon affects the quality of vital statistics and results of studies using cause-specific mortality as endpoints. We aimed at exploring the magnitude and factors associated with the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional, register based study we linked data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We used logistic regression models to analyse the association between external factors and heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death.

RESULTS

Heart failure was listed as the underlying cause of death in 3.6% of all deaths. The odds of heart failure increased: (a) by 35% for 5-year increment in age; (b) by 78% for deaths occurring at nursing homes (compared with in-hospital deaths); and (c) by 602% for deaths not followed by an autopsy (compared with those followed by an autopsy). Deceased with a previous hospitalisation with heart failure as the discharge diagnosis had 514% higher odds of having heart failure listed as their underlying cause of death. Of the deceased with heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death, 9.4% did not have any, and 69.2% had only irrelevant additional information for assessing the true underlying cause of death in their death certificates.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death was associated with age, place of death, autopsy and previous hospitalisations - all factors that should not influence coding procedures. Better completion of death certificates in accordance with the World Health Organization rules will help reduce the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death.

Exploring avoidance of dental care due to dental fear and economic burden -A cross-sectional study in a national sample of younger adults in Norway

AIM

To assess the prevalence of dental avoidance due to dental fear and economic burden and its distribution by utilization of dental care and socio-behavioural characteristics.

METHOD

A sample of 9052 Norwegian adults aged 25-35 years was invited to participate, and 2551 completed electronic questionnaires regarding lifetime prevalence of dental avoidance due to fear and last year prevalence of dental avoidance due to economic burden.

RESULTS

Cancelled- and avoided ordering appointments due to fear amounted to 14.7% and 30.5%, respectively. Avoidance of dental visits due to cost was 37.7%. Frequency of cancelled appointments due to fear was 30% and 16.6% among participants attending dental care several times annually and seldom, respectively. Multiple logistic regression revealed that avoiding dental visits due to cost was less likely among participants with higher household income (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) and more likely among participants with dental care need (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7). Cancelled and avoided appointments due to fear was most likely among those with need for dental care and lower education. Early unpleasant experience with dental care remained a covariate of avoidance behaviour due to fear.

CONCLUSION

14.7%, 30.5%, and 37.7% confirmed cancelled appointments due to fear, avoided ordering appointments due to fear, and avoided visiting the dentist due to cost. Avoiding dental care due to fear and economic burden was more and less common among participants with respectively, frequent and seldom use of dental care. Dental avoidance behaviours were highest among socially disadvantaged groups, indicating a hole in the welfare state model that needs political consideration.

Orthodontic management of traumatic dental injuries in Norway and orthodontists' perceptions of referral routines: A quality assurance survey

BACKGROUND/AIM

Orthodontic treatment of patients with traumatic dental injuries is challenging, with limited evidence of routines and outcomes. The aims of this study were: (i) to describe how orthodontists perceive the information on traumatic dental injuries received by referral from the Public Dental Health Service before orthodontic treatment and (ii) to assess orthodontists' knowledge and working routines in managing traumatic dental injuries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were obtained through a survey of all practicing orthodontists registered as members of the Norwegian Association of Orthodontists (n = 203).

RESULTS

Eighty-three orthodontists were enrolled, most of whom had received their dental degree (73.0%) and specialist orthodontic training (88.5%) in Norway. They reported examining patients with a history of traumatic dental injury at weekly (34.2%) or monthly (38.0%) basis. In 85.5% of cases, they obtained a history of traumatic dental injury from patients. Half of the respondents (51.3%) favoured two-phase early orthodontic treatment for patients with an overjet ≥6 mm. The observation time and treatment strategy showed considerable discrepancies across traumatic dental injury diagnoses. Most (59.1%) orthodontists considered the information on previous traumatic dental injuries provided by the Public Dental Health Services referral 'inadequate', more commonly in cases of mild (83.5%) than severe (57.5%) traumatic dental injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Orthodontic management of patients with traumatic dental injuries was characterised by lack of uniformity in both recommended observation time before orthodontic treatment and management strategy. The referral routines by the Public Dental Health Services for patients with traumatic dental injuries were perceived as 'inadequate' in terms of frequency and quality. The results indicate the requirement of standardisation of routines related to orthodontic management of traumatic dental injuries and referral routines by the Public Dental Health Services.

Burden of disease due to transportation noise in the Nordic countries

BACKGROUND

Environmental noise is of increasing concern for public health. Quantification of associated health impacts is important for regulation and preventive strategies.

AIM

To estimate the burden of disease (BoD) due to road traffic and railway noise in four Nordic countries and their capitals, in terms of DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), using comparable input data across countries.

METHOD

Road traffic and railway noise exposure were obtained from the noise mapping conducted according to the Environmental Noise Directive (END) as well as nationwide noise exposure assessments for Denmark and Norway. Noise annoyance, sleep disturbance and ischaemic heart disease were included as the main health outcomes, using exposure-response functions from the WHO, 2018 systematic review. Additional analyses included stroke and type 2 diabetes. Country-specific DALY rates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used as health input data.

RESULTS

Comparable exposure data were not available on a national level for the Nordic countries, only for capital cities. The DALY rates for the capitals ranged from 329 to 485 DALYs/100,000 for road traffic noise and 44 to 146 DALY/100,000 for railway noise. Moreover, the DALY estimates for road traffic noise increased with up to 17% upon inclusion of stroke and diabetes. DALY estimates based on nationwide noise data were 51 and 133% higher than the END-based estimates, for Norway and Denmark, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Further harmonization of noise exposure data is required for between-country comparisons. Moreover, nationwide noise models indicate that DALY estimates based on END considerably underestimate national BoD due to transportation noise. The health-related burden of traffic noise was comparable to that of air pollution, an established risk factor for disease in the GBD framework. Inclusion of environmental noise as a risk factor in the GBD is strongly encouraged.

Circulating trimethylamine N-oxide levels do not predict 10-year survival in patients with or without coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is an amine oxide generated by gut microbial metabolism. TMAO may contribute to atherothrombosis and systemic inflammation. However, the prognostic value of circulating TMAO for risk stratification is uncertain.

METHODS

We assessed prospective relationships of plasma TMAO with long-term risk of all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality in the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (WECAC; 4132 patients with suspected coronary artery disease) and the Hordaland Health Study (HUSK; 6393 community-based subjects). Risk associations were examined using Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 9.8 and 10.5 years in WECAC and HUSK, respectively. Following adjustments for established CV risk factors and indices of renal function in WECAC, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) per one standard deviation increase in log-transformed plasma TMAO were 1.04 (0.97-1.12), 1.06 (0.95-1.18), and 1.03 (0.93-1.13) for all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality, respectively. Essentially similar results were obtained in patients with angiographically significant coronary artery disease and patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) in the HUSK cohort were 1.03 (0.96-1.10), 1.01 (0.89-1.13), and 1.03 (0.95-1.12) for all-cause-, CV, and non-CV mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating TMAO did not predict long-term all-cause, CV, or non-CV mortality in patients with coronary heart disease or in community-based adults. This large study does not support a role of TMAO for patient risk stratification in primary or secondary prevention.

Treatment and 30-Day Mortality after Myocardial Infarction in Prostate Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study from Norway

INTRODUCTION

There is limited knowledge about the use of invasive treatment and mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients. We therefore wanted to compare rates of invasive treatment and 30-day mortality between AMIs in patients with PCa and AMIs in the general Norwegian male population.

METHODS

Norwegian population-based registry data from 2013 to 2019 were used in this cohort study to identify AMIs in patients with a preceding PCa diagnosis. We compared invasive treatment rates and 30-day mortality in AMI patients with PCa to the same outcomes in all male AMI patients in Norway. Invasive treatment was defined as performed angiography with or without percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Standardized mortality (SMR) and incidence ratios, and logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between PCa risk groups and invasive treatment.

RESULTS

In 1,018 patients with PCa of all risk groups, the total rates of invasive treatment for AMIs were similar to the rates in the general AMI population. In patients with ST-segment elevation AMIs, rates were lower in metastatic PCa compared to localized PCa (OR 0.15, 95% CI: 0.04-0.49). For non-ST-segment elevation AMIs, there were no differences between PCa risk groups. The 30-day mortality after AMI was lower in PCa patients than in the total population of similarly aged AMI patients (SMR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.97).

CONCLUSION

Except for patients with metastatic PCa experiencing an ST-segment elevation AMI, PCa patients were treated as frequent with invasive treatment for their AMI as the general AMI population. 30-day all-cause mortality was lower after AMI in PCa patients compared to the general AMI population.

Long-term prognostic value of trimethylamine N-oxide in community-based adults and patients with coronary heart disease

Background

Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is an amine oxide generated by gut microbial metabolism. Emerging evidence suggests pro-atherosclerotic and pro-inflammatory properties of TMAO; however, the clinical utility of circulating TMAO in risk stratification is uncertain.

Purpose

We prospectively assessed relationships of plasma TMAO with long-term risk of all-cause, cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV mortality in community-dwelling adults and patients with coronary heart disease.

Methods

By Cox modelling, risk-associations were examined in the Hordaland Health Study (HUSK; 6393 community-based adults) and the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (WECAC; 4132 patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome).

Results

Median follow-up time was 11.0 and 10.3 years in HUSK and WECAC, respectively. Following adjustments for established CV risk factors in HUSK, the HRs (95% CIs) comparing the 4th vs. 1st TMAO-quartile were 1.11 (0.88–1.40), 0.97 (0.65–1.46) and 1.17 (0.88–1.54) for all-cause, CV and non-CV mortality, respectively. Corresponding risk estimates in WECAC were 1.07 (0.86–1.32), 1.16 (0.83–1.62) and 1.02 (0.77–1.34). Similar results were observed in patients with angiographically significant coronary artery disease and patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

Conclusion

Plasma TMAO was not predictive of long-term all-cause, CV or non-CV mortality in patients with or without established coronary heart disease. This large-scale study does not support a role of TMAO for patient risk stratification in primary or secondary prevention.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry 1996-2019

Background

Reliable statistics on the underlying cause of death are essential for monitoring the health in a population. When there is insufficient information to identify the true underlying cause of death, the death will be classified using less informative codes, garbage codes. If many deaths are assigned a garbage code, the information value of the cause-of-death statistics is reduced. The aim of this study was to analyse the use of garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry (NCoDR).

Methods

Data from NCoDR on all deaths among Norwegian residents in the years 1996–2019 were used to describe the occurrence of garbage codes. We used logistic regression analyses to identify determinants for the use of garbage codes. Possible explanatory factors were year of death, sex, age of death, place of death and whether an autopsy was performed.

Results

A total of 29.0% (290,469/1,000,128) of the deaths were coded with a garbage code; 14.1% (140,804/1,000,128) with a major and 15.0% (149,665/1,000,128) with a minor garbage code. The five most common major garbage codes overall were ICD-10 codes I50 (heart failure), R96 (sudden death), R54 (senility), X59 (exposure to unspecified factor), and A41 (other sepsis). The most prevalent minor garbage codes were I64 (unspecified stroke), J18 (unspecified pneumonia), C80 (malignant neoplasm with unknown primary site), E14 (unspecified diabetes mellitus), and I69 (sequelae of cerebrovascular disease).

The most important determinants for the use of garbage codes were the age of the deceased (OR 17.4 for age ≥ 90 vs age < 1) and death outside hospital (OR 2.08 for unknown place of death vs hospital).

Conclusion

Over a 24-year period, garbage codes were used in 29.0% of all deaths. The most important determinants of a death to be assigned a garbage code were advanced age and place of death outside hospital. Knowledge of the national epidemiological situation, as well as the rules and guidelines for mortality coding, is essential for understanding the prevalence and distribution of garbage codes, in order to rely on vital statistics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13693-w.

Changes in life expectancy and disease burden in Norway, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Regional variations in caries experience, predictors, and follow-up among children and adolescents in Western Norway

OBJECTIVE

To identify regional differences in, and determinants of dental caries among children in western Norway.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We studied dental caries in 705 children aged 12 years and 18 years living in the southern region (n = 403) and other parts of Hordaland County (n = 302) in Norway. Information on oral hygiene, fluoride intake, and sugar consumption was collected using questionnaires. We also collected information from the Public Dental Service (PDS) on the history of decayed, missing, or filled teeth; professional fluoride application; recall and regular check-up intervals and treatment visits. Residence (southern region versus the rest of Hordaland, the reference) was the independent variable. We analysed regional differences in (i) caries prevalence and severity, (ii) potential contributors to caries, and (iii) procedures and routines in PDS.

RESULTS

Caries prevalence and severity were higher in the southern region (67% and 24%, respectively). Self-reported brushing habits, fluoride use, and sugar consumption patterns were similar between regions. We observed more frequent application of professional fluoride (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.99-4.66], fewer check-ups [IRR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81-0.95], and fewer treatment visits [IRR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.98] among participants in the southern region, compared to the rest of Hordaland. The recall intervals in the southern region were 10% longer among 12-year-olds and 10% shorter among 18-year-olds, compared to their respective counterparts in Hordaland.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed regional gradients in caries experience mirrored regional differences in dental routines and procedures. Caries-related risk behaviours did not explain the observed differences in caries experience.

Is the risk of cardiovascular disease in women with pre-eclampsia modified by very low or very high offspring birth weight? A nationwide cohort study in Norway

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women with pre-eclampsia is modified by very low or very high offspring birth weight. Further, we studied whether diabetes in pregnancy modified this risk.

DESIGN

Nationwide cohort study.

SETTING

Norwegian population registries.

PARTICIPANTS

618 644 women who gave birth to their first child during 1980-2009.

METHODS

The women were followed from delivery until the development of CVD or censoring, by linkage of the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway project, and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

CVD.

RESULTS

Compared with normotensive women with normal offspring birth weight, women with pre-eclampsia had increased risk of CVD (HR 2.16; 95% CI 2.05 to 2.26). The CVD risk was even higher when pre-eclampsia was accompanied with a large for gestational age offspring (LGA, z-score >2.0) (HR 2.57; 95% CI 2.08 to 3.18). Women with pre-eclampsia and a small for gestational age offspring (SGA, z-score <-2.0) had an HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.93) compared with normotensive women with normal offspring birth weight.Also, women with diabetes had increased CVD risk, but no additional risk associated with an LGA or SGA offspring.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with pre-eclampsia and an LGA offspring had higher risk of CVD than pre-eclamptic women with a normal weight (z-score -2.0 to 2.0) or SGA offspring. These findings suggest that factors causing pre-eclampsia and an LGA offspring are also linked to development of CVD.

Preconception leisure-time physical activity and family history of stroke and myocardial infarction associate with preterm delivery: findings from a Norwegian cohort

Background

Preterm birth poses short and long-term health consequences for mothers and offspring including cardiovascular disease sequelae. However, studies evaluating preexisting family history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, such as physical activity, as they relate prospectively to risk of delivering preterm are lacking.

Objectives

To evaluate whether preconception past-year weekly leisure-time physical activity or a family history of stroke or of myocardical infarction prior to age 60 years in first degree relatives associated, prospectively, with preterm delivery.

Design

Cohort study. Baseline data from Cohort Norway (1994–2003) health surveys were linked to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway for identification of all subsequent births (1994–2012). Logistic regression models provided odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery (< 37 weeks gestation); multinomial logistic regression provided OR for early preterm (< 34 weeks) and late preterm (34 through to end of 36 weeks gestation) relative to term deliveries.

Results

Mean (SD) length of time from baseline health survey participation to delivery was 5.6 (3.5) years. A family history of stroke associated with a 62% greater risk for late preterm deliveries (OR 1.62; CI 1.07–2.47), while a family history of myocardial infarction associated with a 66% greater risk of early preterm deliveries (OR 1.66; CI 1.11–2.49). Sensitivity analyses, removing pregnancies complicated by hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes mellitus, and stillbirth deliveries, gave similar results. Preconception vigorous physical activity of three or more hours relative to less than 1 h per week associated with increased risk of early preterm delivery (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.01–2.30), but not late or total preterm deliveries. Light physical activity of three or more hours per week relative to less activity prior to pregnancy was not associated with early, late, or total preterm deliveries.

Conclusions

Results suggest that family history of cardiovascular disease may help identify women at risk for preterm delivery. Further, research is needed regarding preconception and very early pregnancy vigorous physical activity and associated risks.

Radiographic features in 2D imaging as predictors for justified CBCT examinations of canine-induced root resorption

OBJECTIVES

This retrospective observational study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of two-dimensional radiographs on canine-induced root resorption (CIRR) in lateral incisors and identify predictors of CIRR in patients with impacted maxillary canines (IMC).

METHODS

Ninety-nine patients aged 9-17 years, with 156 IMCs, were included in the study. All had CBCT-volumes and two-dimensional radiographs consisting of at least one panoramic radiograph. Two radiologists jointly viewed all cases twice. First, radiographic features related to the IMC and possible CIRR were recorded from two-dimensional radiographs. Then, CIRR was determined from CBCT and according to position and extension classified as mild, moderate and severe.

RESULTS

CIRRs was detected in 80% of lateral incisors (mild: 45%; moderate: 44%; severe: 11%). The sensitivity was generally low at mild and moderate cut-offs (29 and 29%), and somewhat higher for severe (50%). Corresponding specificities were 48%, 63% and 68%. Canine cusp-tip superimposing the lateral incisor's middle third and root/crown ratio >1 was positively associated with mild CIRR, with an odds ratio (OR) of 3.8 and 6.7, respectively. In addition, the root development stage was positively associated with moderate/severe CIRR when the canine root was nearly or fully developed (OR = 3.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic accuracy of two-dimensional radiographs was inadequate for detecting CIRR amongst patients referred for CBCT examinations. Based on our results, none of the suggested two-dimensional radiographic features could predict moderate/severe CIRR except for root development stage. IMC in a later stage of root development seems to be associated with a higher risk of moderate/severe CIRR.

Lockdown and non-COVID-19 deaths: cause-specific mortality during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic in Norway: a population-based register study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the potential impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on all cause and cause-specific mortality in Norway.

DESIGN

Population-based register study.

SETTING

The Norwegian cause of Death Registry and the National Population Register of Norway.

PARTICIPANTS

All recorded deaths in Norway from March to May from 2010 to 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rate (per 100 000) of all-cause mortality and causes of death in the European Shortlist for Causes of Death from March to May 2020. The rates were age standardised and adjusted to a 100% register coverage and compared with a 95% prediction interval (PI) from linear regression based on corresponding rates for 2010-2019.

RESULTS

113 710 deaths were included, of which 10 226 were from 2020. We did not observe any deviation from predicted total mortality. There were fewer than predicted deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases excluding asthma (11.4, 95% PI 11.8 to 15.2) and from other non-ischaemic, non-rheumatic heart diseases (13.9, 95% PI 14.5 to 20.2). The death rates were higher than predicted for Alzheimer's disease (7.3, 95% PI 5.5 to 7.3) and diabetes mellitus (4.1, 95% PI 2.1 to 3.4).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in the frequency of the major causes of death in the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in Norway compared with corresponding periods 2010-2019. There was an increase in diabetes mellitus and Alzheimer's deaths. Reduced mortality due to some heart and lung conditions may be linked to infection control measures.

The state of health in the European Union in 2019

Background

The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Accurate and timely data on mortality and morbidity from diseases and injuries and their trends over time are essential for health planning and priority setting.

Methods

We use the GBD 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardized death, YLL, YLD and DALY rates for Level 2 causes. We evaluate trends by comparing estimates for the year 2019 with those for the year 2010.

Results

In 2019, the age-standardized death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 and 20 251.0 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases for age-standardized, death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged, with increases in the Netherlands and the ‘. The largest decreases in age-standardized DALY rates were observed for HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases and transport injuries (both -19%). On the other hand, only diabetes and kidney diseases showed a significant increase for age-standardized DALY rates in the EU (3.5%). Mental disorders showed an increasing age-standardized YLD rate, as well.

Conclusions

Overall, there was a visible trend of improvement in the health status in the EU with substantial differences between countries. EU health policy makers need to tackle incidence of diseases and injuries, with specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases across the European Union: current state and trends from 2000 to 2019

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading cause of disease burden in the European Union (EU). However, this burden varies across Member States, driven by the socioeconomic and demographic structure of the populations, as well as health care and social support systems in each country. This geographical gradient in the burden of NCDs represents health inequalities that may have expanded as a result of population ageing, migration, and economic crisis, and historic backgrounds.

Methods

Using data from the GBD 2019 study, we quantify the inequality gap between EU countries, characterize the geographical gradient of total and individual NCDs, and analyze the trends over the last 20 years.

Results

A considerable gap exists in the rates of NCD-related DALYs between the country with the lowest burden (Slovenia in 2019) and the highest (Bulgaria in 2019), with a constant (p-trend &gt; 0.05) ratio of 1.6 (95%CI, 1.57; 1.64) since the year 2000. The largest inequality was observed for the burden of stroke between the lowest (France in 2019) and the highest (Bulgaria in 2019) with a ratio of 7.47 (6.78; 8.24) Increasing steadily (p-trend &lt; 0.001) since 2000. Using the relative index of inequality to characterize the gradient of inequalities across the EU, a decreasing trend (p &lt; 0.001) can be observed for NCD-related DALYs rates from 1.56 (1.44; 1.7) in 2000 to in 1.42 (1.33; 1.52) 2019.

Conclusions

Despite overall improvements in health, spatial disparities related to NCDs in the EU persist. Our estimates provide a baseline to inform future equitable health policies.

Burden of diseases and injuries attributable to risk factors in the European Union in 2019

Background

In addition to information on mortality and morbidity from diseases and injuries, it is important to identify the attributable burden of risk factors to allow for health planning and prioritization.

Methods

For the whole EU and each country, using estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals from the GBD 2019 study, we report attributable (all-cause and by level 2 risk factors) age-standardized death and DALY rates, as well as summary exposure values (SEV). We evaluate trends by comparing estimates for the year 2019 with those for the year 2010.

Results

Age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to risk factors declined by 10.7% (95%UI 13.8%-7.6%) and 9.1% (95%UI 12.0%-6.3%), between 2010 and 2019 in the EU. While there was a decreasing trend for both age-standardized death and DALY rates for almost all risk factors, some showed an increasing trend on SEV, including low physical activity and intimate partner violence.

Conclusions

Despite the improvement of health metrics attributable to risk factors, several modifiable behavioral and metabolic risk factors remain unchanged over the years. It is crucial to ensure a swift implementation of evidence-based policies and interventions in EU member states to achieve the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trimethyllysine predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling adults and patients with coronary heart disease

Aims

Trimethyllysine (TML) is involved in carnitine synthesis, serves as a precursor of trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and is associated with cardiovascular events in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD). We prospectively examined circulating TML as a predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling adults and patients with CHD.

Methods and results

By Cox regression modelling, risk associations were examined in 6393 subjects in the community-based Hordaland Health Study (HUSK). A replication study was conducted among 4117 patients with suspected stable angina pectoris in the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (WECAC). During a mean follow-up of 10.5 years in the HUSK-cohort, 884 (13.8%) subjects died, of whom 287 from cardiovascular causes. After multivariable adjustments for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (95% CI)] for all-cause mortality comparing the 4th vs. 1st TML-quartile was 1.66 (1.31–2.10, P < 0.001). Particularly strong associations were observed for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95% CI) 2.04 (1.32–3.15, P = 0.001)]. Corresponding risk-estimates in the WECAC (mean follow-up of 9.8 years) were 1.35 [1.10–1.66, P = 0.004] for all-cause and 1.45 [1.06–1.98, P = 0.02] for cardiovascular mortality. Significant correlations between plasma TML and TMAO were observed in both cohorts (r_s ≥ 0.42, P < 0.001); however, additional adjustments for TMAO did not materially influence the risk associations, and no effect modification by TMAO was found.

Conclusions

Elevated TML-levels were associated with increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality both in subjects with and without established CHD.

Effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and warfarin in atrial fibrillation: a Scandinavian population-based cohort study

AIMS

Using Scandinavian population-based registries, we assessed risk of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and bleeding with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin in anticoagulation-naïve patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This historical cohort study included 219 545 AF patients [median age 74 years; 43% women; mean CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischaemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) score 3.3] initiating apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden (1 January 2013 to 31 December 2016). The primary endpoints were stroke/SE and major bleeding. The median follow-up times were 9.7 (3.9-21.5) months for stroke/SE and 9.6 (3.8-21.3) months for bleeding. Apixaban and warfarin initiators were older and had higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores compared with dabigatran and rivaroxaban initiators. After 1:1 propensity score matching, three cohorts were created: apixaban-warfarin (n = 111 162), dabigatran-warfarin (n = 56 856), and rivaroxaban-warfarin (n = 61 198). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using a Cox regression. For stroke/SE, adjusted HRs against warfarin were 0.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87-1.06] for apixaban, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.80-1.00) for dabigatran, and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.92-1.14) for rivaroxaban. For major bleeding, the HRs against warfarin were 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78) for apixaban, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.82-0.97) for dabigatran, and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.25) for rivaroxaban. The results in the dabigatran cohort did not hold in all dose-defined subgroups.

CONCLUSION

In this large Scandinavian study among AF patients initiating oral anticoagulation, those initiating dabigatran, apixaban, and rivaroxaban had similar rates of stroke/SE to patients initiating warfarin. Rates of major bleeding were lower with apixaban and dabigatran and higher with rivaroxaban, each compared with warfarin.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cervical cancer in women under 30 years of age in Norway: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

We compared women with incident cervical cancer under the age of 30 with older women with regard to stage, morphology, screening history and cervical cancer mortality in a population-based cohort study.

METHODS

We included data from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Incidence rates (per 100,000 women-years) were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard function for risk of cervical cancer death during a 15-year follow-up was displayed. The hazard ratios (HRs) of cervical cancer mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived from Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The incidence of cervical cancer in women under the age of 30 has almost tripled since the 1950s, with the steepest increase during 1955-80 (with an annual percentage change (APC) of 7.1% (95%CI 4.4-9.8)) and also an increase after 2004 (3.8% (95%CI -1.3-9.2)). Out of 21,160 women with cervical cancer (1953-2013), 5.3% were younger than 30 years. A lower proportion of younger women were diagnosed at more advanced stages and a slightly higher proportion were diagnosed with adenocarcinoma and adenosquamous carcinoma comparing women above 30 years. The cumulative risk of cervical cancer death was lower for patients under the age of 30. However, the difference between the age groups decreased over time. The overall adjusted HR of cervical cancer mortality was 0.69 (95% CI 0.58-0.82) in women diagnosed under the age of 30 compared to older women.

CONCLUSION

There has been an increase in cervical cancer incidence in women under the age of 30. Cervical cancer in younger women was not more advanced at diagnosis compared to older women, and the cervical cancer mortality was lower.

Association of fatal myocardial infarction with past level of physical activity: a pooled analysis of cohort studies

AIMS

To assess the association between past level of physical activity (PA) and risk for death during the acute phase of myocardial infarction (MI) in a pooled analysis of cohort studies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

European cohorts including participants with a baseline assessment of PA, conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, and available follow-up on MI and death were eligible. Patients with an incident MI were included. Leisure-time PA was grouped as sedentary (<7 MET-hours), low (7-16 MET-hours), moderate (16.1-32 MET-hours), or high (>32 MET-hours) based on calculated net weekly energy expenditure. The main outcome measures were instant and 28-day case fatality of MI. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariate random-effects models. Adjustments for age, sex, CV risk factors, alcohol consumption, and socioeconomic status were made. From 10 cohorts including a total of 1 495 254 participants, 28 140 patients with an incident MI comprised the study population. A total of 4976 (17.7%) died within 28 days-of these 3101 (62.3%) were classified as instant fatal MI. Compared with sedentary individuals, those with a higher level of PA had lower adjusted odds of instant fatal MI: low PA [OR, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.60-1.04)], moderate PA [0.67 (0.51-0.89)], and high PA [0.55 (0.40-0.76)]. Similar results were found for 28-day fatal MI: low PA [0.85 (0.71-1.03)], moderate PA [0.64 (0.51-0.80)], and high PA [0.72 (0.51-1.00)]. A low-to-moderate degree of heterogeneity was detected in the analysis of instant fatal MI (I2 = 47.3%), but not in that of 28-day fatal MI (I2 = 0.0%).

CONCLUSION

A moderate-to-high level of PA was associated with a lower risk of instant and 28-day death in relation to a MI.

Casual blood glucose and subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality among 159 731 participants in Cohort of Norway (CONOR)

INTRODUCTION

Our aim was to assess the association between casual blood glucose level and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality among community-dwelling adults without a diagnosis of diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this community-based cohort study, 159 731 individuals with a measurement of casual blood glucose were followed from their participation date in Cohort of Norway (CONOR) (1994-2003) until a CVD episode, death or 31 December 2009. All analyses were done using Cox proportional hazard regression, and the results are reported as multivariable-adjusted HRs with 95% CI.

RESULTS

Compared with those with normal glucose levels (<7.8 mmol/L), participants categorized as having borderline (7.8-11.0 mmol/L) levels showed an increased risk of a stroke (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.49) and cardiovascular (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.48), and all-cause (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.38) mortality, while participants with high glucose levels (>11.0 mmol/L) had an even more increased risk. One mmol/L increase in glucose level was associated with an increased risk of all four endpoints among participants with borderline as well as within normal glucose levels. In analyses stratified by sex and age group, the CVD risk estimates tended to be higher in women than in men and in those <65 years of age but no significant interactions were found.

CONCLUSION

An increase in casual blood glucose levels, even within the range of normal and borderline levels, was positively associated with increased risk of CVD and mortality among community-dwelling adults without a known diagnosis of diabetes.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Early-life course factors and oral health among young Norwegian adults

OBJECTIVE

Using a national sample of young Norwegian adults, we examined whether unpleasant experience with dental care during childhood is associated with tooth loss and oral health-related quality of life in adulthood after accounting for early- and later-life socio-behavioural circumstances and dental avoidance behaviour.

METHODS

2433 individuals aged 25-35 years participated in an electronic survey. Oral quality of life was measured using the oral impact of daily performance (OIDP) inventory. Generalized linear models and negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the association of early unpleasant experiences with dental care and tooth loss and OIDP scores. Incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the relative differences in prevalence of tooth loss and OIDP scores.

RESULTS

Adjusting for early-life characteristics only, the prevalence of tooth loss was 1.42 (IRR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.24-1.64) and 1.96 (IRR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.70-2.26) times higher among individuals who reported unpleasant experiences a few times or several times, than in individuals who did not report unpleasant experiences with dental care in childhood. Adjusting further for educational level, smoking and tooth brushing attenuated the relative differences (IRR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.22-1.62 and IRR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.62-2.17, respectively). Lastly, when adjusting for dental avoidance behaviour, the prevalence of tooth loss was 1.29 (IRR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.50) and 1.58 (IRR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.32-1.88) times higher among individuals who reported unpleasant experiences a few times or several times than in those who did not. Corresponding associations of early unpleasant experience with OIDP were (IRR = 1.41 95% CI: 1.22-1.63) and (IRR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.42-2.01) when adjusting for early-life characteristics, and (IRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20-1.60) and (IRR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.27-1.80) when adjusting for education, smoking and tooth brushing. When adjusting for dental avoidance behaviour, the association of early unpleasant experience with OIDP became nonsignificant.

CONCLUSION

Unpleasant dental care experiences during childhood are associated with poor oral health in adulthood, independent of later-life socio-behavioural characteristics including negative dental care seeking. This highlights the importance of tailoring regular contacts with dental healthcare services in childhood to build confidence in children and thus has implications for healthcare policy.

Heart Failure in Women With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: Insights From the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) have been associated with heart failure (HF). It is unknown whether concurrent pregnancy complications (small-for-gestational-age or preterm delivery) or recurrent HDP modify HDP-associated HF risk. In this cohort study, we included Norwegian women with a first birth between 1980 and 2004. Follow-up occurred through 2009. Cox models examined gestational hypertension and preeclampsia in the first pregnancy as predictors of a composite of HF-related hospitalization or HF-related death, with assessment of effect modification by concurrent small-for-gestational-age or preterm delivery. Additional models were stratified by final parity (1 versus ≥2 births) and tested associations with recurrent HDP. Among 508 422 women, 565 experienced incident HF over a median 11.8 years of follow-up. After multivariable adjustment, gestational hypertension in the first birth was not significantly associated with HF (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.84-2.35], P=0.19), whereas preeclampsia was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.00 (95% CI, 1.50-2.68, P<0.001). Among women with HDP, risks were not modified by concurrent small-for-gestational-age or preterm delivery (P_interaction=0.42). Largest hazards of HF were observed in women whose only lifetime birth was complicated by preeclampsia and women with recurrent preeclampsia. HF risks were similar after excluding women with coronary artery disease. In summary, women with preeclampsia, especially those with one lifetime birth and those with recurrent preeclampsia, experienced increased HF risk compared to women without HDP. Further research is needed to clarify causal mechanisms.

Association of dietary vitamin K and risk of coronary heart disease in middle-age adults: the Hordaland Health Study Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The role of vitamin K in the regulation of vascular calcification is established. However, the association of dietary vitamins K1 and K2 with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is inconclusive.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

We followed participants in the community-based Hordaland Health Study from 1997 - 1999 through 2009 to evaluate associations between intake of vitamin K and incident (new onset) CHD. Baseline diet was assessed by a past-year food frequency questionnaire. Energy-adjusted residuals of vitamin K1 and vitamin K2 intakes were categorised into quartiles.

PARTICIPANTS

2987 Norwegian men and women, age 46-49 years.

METHODS

Information on incident CHD events was obtained from the nationwide Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project. Multivariable Cox regression estimated HRs and 95% CIs with test for linear trends across quartiles. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, total energy intake, physical activity, smoking and education. A third model further adjusted K1 intake for energy-adjusted fibre and folate, while K2 intake was adjusted for energy-adjusted saturated fatty acids and calcium.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 11 years, we documented 112 incident CHD cases. In the adjusted analyses, there was no association between intake of vitamin K1 and CHD (HR_Q4vsQ1 = 0.92 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.57), p for trend 0.64), while there was a lower risk of CHD associated with higher intake of energy-adjusted vitamin K2 (HR_Q4vsQ1 = 0.52 (0.29 to 0.94), p for trend 0.03). Further adjustment for potential dietary confounders did not materially change the association for K1, while the association for K2 was slightly attenuated (HR_Q4vsQ1 = 0.58 (0.28 to 1.19)).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher intake of vitamin K2 was associated with lower risk of CHD, while there was no association between intake of vitamin K1 and CHD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03013725.

Hospitalised patients with unexplained chest pain: incidence and prognosis

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of unexplained chest pain patients provides valuable information for evaluation of health services.

OBJECTIVE

To examine prognosis of unexplained chest pain.

METHODS

Using data from in- and outpatient hospital visits in Norway of patients discharged with a main diagnosis of unexplained chest pain (ICD-10: R072-R074) in 2010-2012, the 1-year incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), any cardio-vascular disease (CVD) and mortality was evaluated. Cases with prior 2-year history of CVD or chest pain were excluded. Cox proportional hazards evaluated outcomes by patient characteristics and standardized mortality ratios evaluated observed versus expected mortality.

RESULTS

Of 59 569 patients identified (20-89 years of age), the majority (86%) were referred to hospital by out-of-hours emergency care centres. Subsequent CHD was noted for 12.5%, 19.5% and 25.0% of men and 7.2%, 11.0%, 14.0% of women aged 45-64, 65-74 and 75-89 years, respectively. The per cent of deaths attributed to CVD were greatest within the first 2 months of postdischarge. Total mortality rates (per 1000 person-years) were 6.6 in men and 4.7 in women aged 45-64 and 69.2 in men and 39.5 in women aged 75-89 years. Relative to the general population, mortality was 53% and 45% higher for men and women under 65 years of age, respectively, attributed primarily to non-CVD causes.

CONCLUSION

Patients in Norway discharged with unexplained chest pain are an at-risk group in terms of incident CHD, any CVD and mortality, including non-CVD mortality during the first-year postdischarge. The results suggest that unexplained chest pain patients may benefit from greater healthcare coordination between medical disciplines.

Work experience influences treatment approaches in endodontics: a questionnaire survey among dentists in Western Norway

Objectives: To collect information on endodontic treatment procedures among dentists in the public dental service (PDS) in Western Norway and relate this information to their work experience. Materials and methods: A survey comprised of 35 questions related to personal information, frequency of endodontic treatment, endodontic procedures and treatment principles was distributed electronically to 187 dentists in PDS in two counties of Western Norway. Results: The response rate was 74%, and 130 dentists participated. Among them, 57.0% had completed their education less than 13 years ago, and almost all were below 39 years old (95%). The majority (81.0%) had graduated in Norway. Stepwise caries excavation in primary and permanent teeth and direct pulp capping in primary teeth were more frequently performed by dentists with less than 13 years from graduation. Routine use of rubber dam was high among the responders (87%). However, use of rubber dam and master-cone radiograph uptakes were more frequent among the younger dentists. The majority used rotary instrumentation systems, and almost all participants followed the current guidelines for use of antibiotics in endodontics. Conclusions: In general, dentists in PDS follow the current endodontic treatment guidelines. However, it seems that the more recently graduated dentists perform more endodontic procedures and tend to adhere more to the taught principles regarding rubber dam use and radiograph uptakes.

Heart failure in Norway, 2000-2014: analysing incident, total and readmission rates using data from the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

AIMS

To examine trends in heart failure (HF) hospitalization rates and risk of readmissions following an incident HF hospitalization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

During 2000-2014, we identified in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project 142 109 hospitalizations with HF as primary diagnosis. Trends of incident and total (incident and recurrent) HF hospitalization rates were analysed using negative binomial regression models. Changes over time in 30-day and 3-year risk of HF recurrences or cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related readmissions were analysed using Fine and Grey competing risk regression, with death as competing events. Age-standardized rates declined on average 1.9% per year in men and 1.8% per year in women for incident HF hospitalizations (both P_trend  < 0.001) but did not change significantly in either men or women for total HF hospitalizations. In men surviving the incident HF hospitalization, 30-day and 3-year risk of a HF recurrent event increased 1.7% and 1.2% per year, respectively. Similarly, 30-day and 3-year risk of a CVD-related hospitalization increased 1.5% and 1.0% per year, respectively (all P_trend  < 0.001). No statistically significant changes in the risk of HF recurrences or CVD-related readmissions were observed among women. In-hospital mortality for a first and recurrent HF episode declined over time in both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident HF hospitalization rates declined in Norway during 2000-2014. An increase in the risk of recurrences in the context of reduced in-hospital mortality following an incident and recurrent HF hospitalization led to flat trends of total HF hospitalization rates.

P3470Comparative effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants and warfarin in non-valvular atrial fibrillation - a cohort study in 3 Nordic countries

Background

Non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are an alternative to warfarin in the prevention of stroke in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Nordic countries have high quality of warfarin treatment, making them an especially suitable setting for assessing effectiveness and safety of NOACs against warfarin.

Purpose

The BEYOND Pooled (BEnefit of NOACs studY of nOn-valvular AF patieNts in NorDic countries) study compared risks of ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (S/SE), and risk of bleeding with acute hospitalisation with an overnight stay (bleeding) in NVAF patients treated with apixaban, dabigatran or rivaroxaban, each compared with warfarin treatment.

Methods

A cohort study of treatment-naïve adult NVAF patients dispensed apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban or warfarin was identified from 01 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2016. The population and study variables were identified from national registries in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. After 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching for each NOAC-warfarin comparison, individual-level data were pooled across the countries. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of the endpoints.

Results

PS matched NOAC cohort sizes were: apixaban (55,696) dabigatran (28,526) and rivaroxaban (30,701), and the total follow-up in the PS-matched population was 291,171 years (mean 1.3 years). During the follow-up, 35,450 oral anticoagulation (OAC) patients had a S/SE and 38,620 OAC patients had bleeding. Adjusted HRs for the two endpoints are presented in the table. PH assumption has not been formally tested but cum incidence curves did not indicate substantial differences in the effects over time.

Table 1. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of stroke/systemic embolism and bleeding for non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants versus warfarin Endpoint Apixaban vs Warfarin: aHR (95% CI) Dabigatran vs Warfarin: aHR (95% CI) Rivaroxaban vs Warfarin: aHR (95% CI) Stroke/SE 0.93 (0.85–1.03) 0.89 (0.80–1.00) 0.97 (0.88–1.08) Bleeding 0.72 (0.67–0.77) 0.87 (0.80–0.95) 1.12 (1.04–1.20)

Conclusions

Relative to warfarin, apixaban and dabigatran were associated with lower rates of bleeding whereas rivaroxaban was associated with a higher rate. The three NOACs had comparable rates of stroke and systemic embolism relative to warfarin.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study was funded by the Pfizer/Bristol-Myers Squibb Alliance.

Ischemic heart failure as a complication of incident acute myocardial infarction: Timing and time trends: A national analysis including 78,814 Danish patients during 2000-2009

Aim: Heart failure is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction leading to poor prognosis. We aimed at exploring time trends of heart failure and their impact on mortality among patients with an incident acute myocardial infarction. Methods: From the National Patient Danish Registry we collected data on all patients hospitalized with an incident of acute myocardial infarction during 2000-2009 and identified cases with in-hospital heart failure (presented on admission or developing heart failure during acute myocardial infarction hospitalization) or post-discharge heart failure (a hospitalization or outpatient visit following acute myocardial infarction discharge), and assessed in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality. Results: Of the 78,814 patients included in the study, 10,248 (13.0%) developed in-hospital heart failure. The odds of in-hospital heart failure declined 0.9% per year (odds ratio=0.991, 95% confidence interval: 0.983-0.999). In-hospital heart failure was associated with 13% (odds ratio=1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.20) and 14% (odds ratio=1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.20) higher in-hospital and 30-day mortality, respectively. Of the 61,637 patients discharged alive without in-hospital heart failure, 5978 (9.7%) experienced post-discharge heart failure, 4116 (6.7%) were hospitalized and 1862 (3.0%) were diagnosed at outpatient clinics. The risk of heart failure requiring hospitalization declined 5.5% per year (hazard ratio=0.945, 95% confidence interval: 0.934-0.955) whereas the risk of heart failure diagnosed at outpatient clinics increased 13.4% per year (hazard ratio=1.134, 95% confidence interval: 1.115-1.153). Post-discharge heart failure was associated with 239% (hazard ratio=3.39, 95% confidence interval: 3.18-3.63) higher 1-year mortality. Conclusions: In-hospital and post-discharge heart failure requiring hospitalization decreased whereas post-discharge heart failure diagnosed at outpatient clinics increased among incident acute myocardial infarction patients during 2000-2009. The development of heart failure, especially after acute myocardial infarction discharge, indicates a poor prognosis.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Limited Benefit of Fish Consumption on Risk of Hip Fracture among Men in the Community-Based Hordaland Health Study

Hip fractures have a high prevalence worldwide. Few studies have investigated whether fish consumption is associated with risk of hip fractures. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of fish intake on the subsequent risk of a hip fracture because of the low number of studies on this topic. A community-based prospective cohort study of 2865 men and women from Hordaland county in Norway, born between 1925⁻1927 and enrolled in the study in 1997⁻1999. Information on hip fracture cases was extracted from hospital records until 31 December 2009. Baseline information on the intake of fish was obtained from a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazard regression models with death as a competing risk were used to evaluate the association of fish intake with risk of hip fracture. During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 9.6 (2.7) years, 226 hip fractures (72 in men, 154 in women) were observed. The mean (SD) fish intake was 48 (25) g/1000 kcal. The association between fish intake and risk of hip fracture was not linear and displayed a threshold, with low intake of fish being associated with an increased risk of hip fracture in men (HR (Hazard Ratio) = 1.84, 95% CI 1.10, 3.08). In this community-based prospective study of men and women, a low intake of fish was associated with the risk of a hip fracture in men.

Trends in incident acute myocardial infarction in Norway: An updated analysis to 2014 using national data from the CVDNOR project

Background We updated the information on trends of incident acute myocardial infarction in Norway, focusing on whether the observed trends during 2001-2009 continued throughout 2014. Methods All incident (first) acute myocardial infarctions in Norwegian residents age 25 years and older were identified in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway 1994-2014 project. We analysed overall and age group-specific (25-64 years, 65-84 years and 85 + years) trends by gender using Poisson regression analyses and report the average annual changes in rates with their 95% confidence intervals. Results During 2001-2014, 221,684 incident acute myocardial infarctions (59.4% men) were identified. Hospitalised cases accounted for 79.9% of all incident acute myocardial infarctions. Overall, incident acute myocardial infarction rates declined on average 2.6% per year (incidence rate ratio 0.974, 95% confidence interval 0.972-0.977) in men and 2.8% per year (incidence rate ratio 0.972, 95% confidence interval 0.971-0.974) in women, contributed by declining rates of hospitalisations (1.8% and 1.9% per year in men and women, respectively) and deaths (6.0% and 5.8% per year in men and women, respectively). Declining rates were observed in all three age groups. The overall acute myocardial infarction incidence rates continued to decline from 2009 onwards, with a steeper decline compared to 2001-2009. During 2009-2014, gender-adjusted acute myocardial infarction incidence among adults age 25-44 years declined 5.3% per year, contributed mostly by declines in hospitalisation rates (5.1% per year). Conclusion Acute myocardial infarction incidence rates continued to decline after 2009 in Norway in both men and women. The decline started to involve individuals aged 25-44 years, marking a turning point in the previously reported stagnation of rates during 2001-2009.

Association Between Gestational Hypertension and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among 617 589 Norwegian Women

Background

Preeclampsia and gestational hypertension (GH) are the most common hypertensive pregnancy disorders. Preeclampsia has been linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but a similar association for GH has not been established. We aimed to determine the association between GH and subsequent CVD, and explore the additional role of small‐for‐gestational‐age infants, preterm delivery, and parity.

Methods and Results

Data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway were linked to the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway project and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed using Cox proportional hazard regression, comparing women with and without GH during their first and/or second pregnancy. We included all women with a first delivery from 1980 through 2009 (n=617 589) and followed them for a median of 14.3 (quartile 1–quartile 3: 6.9–21.5) years. Women with GH in the first pregnancy had 1.8‐fold (95% confidence interval, 1.7–2.0) higher risk of subsequent CVD compared with women without any hypertensive pregnancy disorder. When GH occurred in combination with small‐for‐gestational‐age infants and/or preterm delivery, the hazard ratio was 2.6 (95% confidence interval, 2.3–3.0). When women with GH were compared with women with preeclampsia, the risk of CVD was comparable when the pregnancy complications occurred in either the first or second pregnancy but was significantly higher for preeclampsia without complications when the disorder occurred in both pregnancies.

Conclusions

GH was associated with increased risk of subsequent CVD, and the highest risk was observed when GH was combined with small‐for‐gestational‐age infants and/or preterm delivery.

Smoking, plasma cotinine and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Hordaland Health Study

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking has been identified as a major modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease and mortality. However, findings on the relationship between smoking and atrial fibrillation (AF) have been inconsistent. Furthermore, findings from previous studies were based on self-reported smoking.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations of smoking status and plasma cotinine levels, a marker of nicotine exposure, with risk of incident AF in the Hordaland Health Study.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 6682 adults aged 46-74 years without known AF at baseline. Participants were followed via linkage to the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project and the Cause of Death Registry. Smoking status was assessed by both questionnaire and plasma cotinine levels.

RESULTS

A total of 538 participants developed AF over a median follow-up period of 11 years. Using questionnaire data, current smoking (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.09-1.83), but not former smoking (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.83-1.28), was associated with an increased risk of AF after adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, hypertension, physical activity and education. Using plasma cotinine only, the adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.40 (1.12-1.75) for participants with cotinine ≥85 nmol L^-1 compared to those with cotinine <85 nmol L^-1 . However, the risk increased with elevated plasma cotinine levels until 1199 nmol L^-1 (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.16-2.05 at the third group vs. the reference group) and plateaued at higher levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Current, but not former smokers, had a higher risk of developing AF. Use of plasma cotinine measurement corroborated this finding.

The relation of CUN-BAE index and BMI with body fat, cardiovascular events and diabetes during a 6-year follow-up: the Hordaland Health Study

Objective

We compared Clínica Universidad de Navarra-Body Adiposity Estimator (CUN-BAE) and body mass index (BMI) as correlates of body fat percent (BF%) and the association with future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes in a Caucasian population.

Methods

We used data from 6796 individuals (born 1925–27 and 1950–52) from the Hordaland Health Study, a prospective cohort study in Norway. The study was conducted in 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. Cross-sectional analyses were conducted with data from 1997/99, including BF% measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Longitudinal analyses included BMI and CUN-BAE calculated in 1992/93, and self-reported information on CVD events and diabetes in 1997/99.

Results

The correlation between CUN-BAE and BF% (r=0.88) was stronger than between BMI and BF% (r=0.56). In sex-stratified analyses, CUN-BAE and BMI correlated similarly with BF% in men (r=0.77 and r=0.76, respectively) and women (r=0.82 and r=0.81, respectively). In longitudinal analyses, the odds ratio (per 1 SD increase) of CVD and type 2 diabetes was higher for BMI (OR_CVD =1.23 [95% CI: 1.11–1.36]; OR_diabetes =2.11 [1.82–2.45]) than for CUN-BAE (OR_CVD =1.15 [1.04–1.27]; OR_diabetes =2.06 [1.72–2.47]) in the total population. In sex-stratified analyses, CUN-BAE showed higher CVD and diabetes risk than BMI: in men BMI OR_CVD =1.22 (1.04–1.44), OR_diabetes =2.13 (1.64–2.83); CUN-BAE OR_CVD =1.93 (1.54–2.43), OR_diabetes =4.33 (2.80–6.71); and in women BMI OR_CVD =1.22 (1.07–1.39), OR_diabetes =2.11 (1.76–2.53); CUN-BAE OR_CVD =2.06 (1.69–2.51), OR_diabetes =5.45 (3.87–7.67).

Conclusion

CUN-BAE is more strongly associated with future risk of type 2 diabetes and CVD compared with BMI in analysis stratified by sex. As a measure of adiposity in men and women separately, CUN-BAE has no advantage over BMI, except when the value of estimated BF% itself is of interest.

Clinical Profile and Management of Patients with Incident and Recurrent Acute Myocardial Infarction in Albania - a Call for More Focus on Prevention Strategies

Background

The clinical profile of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients reflects the burden of risk factors in the general population. Differences between incident (first) and recurrent (repeated) events and their impact on treatment are poorly described. We studied potential differences in the clinical profile and in-hospital treatment between patients hospitalised with an incident and recurrent AMI.

Methods

A total of 324 patients admitted in the Coronary Care Unit of ‘Mother Teresa’ hospital, Tirana, Albania (2013-2014), were included in the study. Information on AMI type, complications and risk factors was obtained from patient’s medical file.

Logistic regression analyses were used to explore differences between the incident and recurrent AMIs regarding clinical profile and in-hospital treatment.

Results

Of all patients, 50 (15.4%) had a prior AMI. Compared to incident cases, recurrent cases were older (P=0.01), more often women (P=0.01), less educated (P=0.01), and smoked less (P=0.03). Recurrent cases experienced more often heart failure (HF) (OR=2.48; 95% CI: 1.31–4.70), impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (OR=1.97; 95% CI:1.05–3.71), and multivessel disease (OR=6.32; 95% CI: 1.43–28.03) than incident cases. In-hospital use of beta-blockers was less frequent among recurrent compared to incident cases (OR=0.45; 95% CI: 0.24–0.85), while no statistically significant differences between groups were observed regarding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, statin, aspirin or invasive procedures.

Conclusion

A more severe clinical expression of the disease and underutilisation of treatment among recurrent AMIs are likely to explain their poorer prognosis compared to incident AMIs.

Prognostic Impact of In-Hospital and Postdischarge Heart Failure in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Analysis Using Data From the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We explored the excess mortality associated with HF as an early or late complication of AMI and describe changes over time in such excess mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

All patients hospitalized with an incident AMI and without history of prior HF hospitalization were followed up to 1 year after AMI discharge for episodes of HF. New HF episodes were classified as in-hospital HF if diagnosed during the AMI hospitalization or postdischarge HF if diagnosed within 1 year after discharge from the incident AMI. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to explore the excess mortality associated with HF categories. Changes over time in the excess mortality were assessed by testing the interaction between HF status and study year. In-hospital HF increased in-hospital mortality 1.79 times (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% CI: 1.68-1.91). The excess mortality associated with HF increased by 4.3 times from 2001 to 2009 (P interaction<0.001) as a consequence of a greater decline of in-hospital mortality among AMI patients without (9% per year) compared to those with in-hospital HF (3% per year). Postdischarge HF increased all-cause and CVD mortality 5.98 times (hazard ratio, 5.98; 95% CI: 5.39-6.64) and 7.93 times (subhazard ratio, 7.93; 95% CI: 6.84 -9.19), respectively. The relative excess 1-year mortality associated with HF did not change significantly over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of HF-either as an early or late complication of AMI-has a negative impact on patients' survival. Changes in the excess mortality associated with HF are driven by modest improvements in survival among AMI patients with HF as compared to those without HF.

Incident Coronary Heart Disease After Preeclampsia: Role of Reduced Fetal Growth, Preterm Delivery, and Parity

Background

Preeclampsia is a severe pregnancy disorder often complicated by reduced fetal growth or preterm delivery and is associated with long‐term maternal morbidity and mortality. We aimed to assess the association between preeclampsia phenotypes and risk of subsequent coronary heart disease and maternal cardiovascular mortality.

Methods and Results

Women aged 16 to 49 years who gave birth during 1980–2002 and registered in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway were followed prospectively (1–29 years) for an incident major coronary event and mortality through linkage with the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway 1994–2009 (CVDNOR) project and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Preeclampsia was subdivided based on the presence of a child born small for gestational age or preterm delivery. Among 506 350 women with 1 to 5 singleton births, there were 1275 (0.3%) occurrences of major coronary event, 468 (0.1%) cardiovascular deaths, and 5411 (1.1%) deaths overall. Compared with women without preeclampsia, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for major coronary event was 2.1 (1.73–2.65) after preeclampsia alone, 3.3 (2.37–4.57) after preeclampsia in combination with small for gestational age, and 5.4 (3.74–7.74) after preeclampsia in combination with preterm delivery. Analyses distinguishing women with 1 (n=61 352) or >1 (n=281 069) lifetime pregnancy and analyses with cardiovascular mortality as outcome followed the same pattern.

Conclusions

The occurrence of major coronary events was increased among women with preeclampsia and highest for preeclampsia combined with a child born small for gestational age and/or preterm delivery.