Predicting functional outcome and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a glimpse into the crystal ball?

Barthel Index, SPAN-100, and NIHSS Studies on the Predictive Value of Prognosis in Patients With Thrombolysis

OBJECTIVE

We mainly explore the predictive value of Barthel Index (BI), SPAN-100, and National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) scores on clinical prognosis and functional outcomes in thrombolytic patients and compare the differences in the predictive values of the above 3 scales so as to provide an effective basis to evaluate the prognosis of thrombolytic patients.

METHODS

Data were collected from 212 patients with the first-onset AIS (acute ischemic stroke). The enrolled patients were treated with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator thrombolytic therapy and were divided into 2 groups according to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at discharge: the prognosis group (mRS≤2 points) and the poor prognosis group (mRS≥3 points). Logistic multivariate analysis was used to analyze the predictors of poor prognosis in patients with thrombolysis. MedCalc software was used to plot receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calculate the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and compare the prediction performance of the 3 scales by the Delong and colleagues' method, and the difference of P <0.05 was statistically significant.

RESULTS

Logistic binary regression multivariate analysis suggested that BI was a predictor of poor prognosis for thrombolytic therapy in patients with AIS. The lower the BI score, the poorer the prognosis. The AUC for BI score was 0.862, 95% CI (0.808-0.906), NIHSS score AUC was 0.665, 95% CI (0.597-0.728), and SPAN-100 score AUC was 0.640, 95% CI (0.572-0.705). AUC comparison of 3 scoring ROC curves suggested statistically significant differences between BI and NIHSS ( PC =0.0000), BI and SPAN-100 ( PC =0.0000); no significant difference was observed between SPAN-100 and NIHSS ( PC =1.7997).

CONCLUSIONS

Simple BI scores have a high prognostic value for thrombolytic therapy in AIS.

Lecanemab: Looking Before We Leap

Lecanemab, a novel amyloid-sequestering agent, recently received accelerated Food and Drug Administration approval for the treatment of mild dementia due to Alzheimer disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Approval was based on a large phase 3 trial, Clarity, which demonstrated reductions in amyloid plaque burden and cognitive decline with lecanemab. Three major concerns should give us pause before adopting this medication: Its beneficial effects are small, its harms are substantial, and its potential costs are unprecedented. Although lecanemab has a clear and statistically significant effect on cognition, its effect size is small and may not be clinically significant. The magnitude of lecanemab's cognitive effect is smaller than independent estimates of the minimally important clinical difference, implying that the effect may be imperceptible to a majority of patients and caregivers. Lecanemab's cognitive effects were numerically smaller than the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors and may be much smaller. The main argument in lecanemab's favor is that it may lead to greater cognitive benefit over time. Although plausible, there is a lack of evidence to support this conclusion. Lecanemab's harms are substantial. In Clarity, it caused symptomatic brain edema in 11% and symptomatic intracranial bleeding in 0.5% of participants. These estimates likely significantly underestimate these risks in general practice for 3 reasons: (1) Lecanemab likely interacts with other medications that increase bleeding, an effect minimized in Clarity. (2) The Clarity population is much younger than the real-world population with mild AD dementia and MCI (age 71 years vs 85 years) and bleeding risk increases with age. (3) Bleeding rates in trials are typically much lower than in clinical practice. Lecanemab's costs are unprecedented. Its proposed price of $26,500 is based on cost-effectiveness analyses with tenuous assumptions. However, even if cost-effective, it is likely to result in higher expenditures than any other medication. If its entire target population were treated, the aggregate medication expenditures would be $120 billion US dollars per year-more than is currently spent on all medications in Medicare Part D. Before adopting lecanemab, we need to know that lecanemab is not less effective, vastly more harmful, and 100× more costly than donepezil.

Association of admission neutrophil serine proteinases levels with the outcomes of acute ischemic stroke: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil serine proteinases (NSPs), released by activated neutrophils, are key proteins involved in the pathophysiologic processes of stroke. NSPs are also implicated in the process and response of thrombolysis. This study aimed to analyze three NSPs (neutrophil elastase, cathepsin G, and proteinase 3) in relation to acute ischemic stroke (AIS) outcomes and in relation to the outcomes of patients treated with intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IV-rtPA).

METHODS

Among 736 patients prospectively recruited at the stroke center from 2018 to 2019, 342 patients diagnosed with confirmed AIS were included. Plasma neutrophil elastase (NE), cathepsin G (CTSG), and proteinase 3 (PR3) concentrations were measured on admission. The primary endpoint was unfavorable outcome defined as modified Rankin Scale score 3-6 at 3 months, and the secondary endpoints were symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) within 48 h, and mortality within 3 months. In the subgroup of patients who received IV-rtPA, post-thrombolysis early neurological improvement (ENI) (defined as National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score = 0 or decrease of ≥ 4 within 24 h after thrombolysis) was also included as the secondary endpoint. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between NSPs levels and AIS outcomes.

RESULTS

Higher NE and PR3 plasma levels were associated with the 3-month mortality and 3-month unfavorable outcome. Higher NE plasma levels were also associated with the risk of sICH after AIS. After adjusting for potential confounders, plasma NE level > 229.56 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR] = 4.478 [2.344-8.554]) and PR3 > 388.77 ng/mL (OR = 2.805 [1.504-5.231]) independently predicted the 3-month unfavorable outcome. Regarding rtPA treatment, patients with NE plasma concentration > 177.22 ng/mL (OR = 8.931 [2.330-34.238]) or PR3 > 388.77 ng/mL (OR = 4.275 [1.045-17.491]) were over 4 times more likely to suffer unfavorable outcomes after rtPA treatment. The addition of NE and PR3 to clinical predictors of unfavorable functional outcome after AIS and the outcome after rtPA treatment improved discrimination as well as reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement = 8.2% and 18.1%, continuous net reclassification improvement = 100.0% and 91.8%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma NE and PR3 are novel and independent predictors of 3-month functional outcomes after AIS. Plasma NE and PR3 also possess predictive value to identify patients with unfavorable outcomes after rtPA treatment. NE is probably an important mediator of the effects of neutrophils on stroke outcomes, which worth further investigation.

Risk factor identification and prediction models for prolonged length of stay in hospital after acute ischemic stroke using artificial neural networks

Background

Accurate estimation of prolonged length of hospital stay after acute ischemic stroke provides crucial information on medical expenditure and subsequent disposition. This study used artificial neural networks to identify risk factors and build prediction models for a prolonged length of stay based on parameters at the time of hospitalization.

Methods

We retrieved the medical records of patients who received acute ischemic stroke diagnoses and were treated at a stroke center between January 2016 and June 2020, and a retrospective analysis of these data was performed. Prolonged length of stay was defined as a hospital stay longer than the median number of days. We applied artificial neural networks to derive prediction models using parameters associated with the length of stay that was collected at admission, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of each predictor. We applied 5-fold cross-validation and used the validation set to evaluate the classification performance of the artificial neural network models.

Results

Overall, 2,240 patients were enrolled in this study. The median length of hospital stay was 9 days. A total of 1,101 patients (49.2%) had a prolonged hospital stay. A prolonged length of stay is associated with worse neurological outcomes at discharge. Univariate analysis identified 14 baseline parameters associated with prolonged length of stay, and with these parameters as input, the artificial neural network model achieved training and validation areas under the curve of 0.808 and 0.788, respectively. The mean accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of prediction models were 74.5, 74.9, 74.2, 75.2, and 73.9%, respectively. The key factors associated with prolonged length of stay were National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores at admission, atrial fibrillation, receiving thrombolytic therapy, history of hypertension, diabetes, and previous stroke.

Conclusion

The artificial neural network model achieved adequate discriminative power for predicting prolonged length of stay after acute ischemic stroke and identified crucial factors associated with a prolonged hospital stay. The proposed model can assist in clinically assessing the risk of prolonged hospitalization, informing decision-making, and developing individualized medical care plans for patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Is Thrombocytopenia an In-Hospital Mortality Risk Factor among Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke? A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis from the MIMIC-IV Database

(1) Background: We aimed to evaluate the aspect of thrombocytopenia in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS); (2) Methods: Patients with AIS were recruited in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database from 2008 to 2019. The thrombocytopenia was defined as a platelet blood count of less than 150 K/µL. We compared the patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using propensity score matching (PSM); (3) Results: Thrombocytopenia affected 151 out of the 1236 patients (12.2%). Patients with thrombocytopenia were older (70.5 ± 12.8 vs. 68.4 ± 14.4; SMD = 0.154) and had a higher Charlson comorbidity index (7.3 ± 2.5 vs. 6.7 ± 2.7; SMD = 0.228) and acute physiology score III (44.8 ± 21.0 vs. 38.2 ± 19.1; SMD = 0.328) than those without thrombocytopenia. The risk of in-hospital mortality did not increase linearly or nonlinearly with a lower platelet count (overall p value = 0.794; nonlinear p value = 0.646). After PSM, 147 pairs remained. Thrombocytopenia was not linked with in-hospital mortality (HR: 1.06, 95% CIs: 0.60-1.88); (4) Conclusions: We described the clinical characteristics of patients admitted for thrombocytopenia and AIS who did not receive reperfusion therapy; additionally, we found that thrombocytopenia was not an independent short-term risk factor of in-hospital mortality.

Application of machine learning-based models to boost the predictive power of the SPAN index

BACKGROUND

This study re-explored the predictive validity of Stroke Prognostication using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (SPAN) index in patients who received different treatments for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and developed machine learning-boosted outcome prediction models.

METHODS

We evaluated the prognostic relevance of SPAN index in patients with AIS who received intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator (IV-tPA), intra-arterial thrombolysis (IAT) or non-thrombolytic treatments (non-tPA), and applied machine learning algorithms to develop SPAN-based outcome prediction models in a cohort of 2145 hospitalized AIS patients. The performance of the models was assessed and compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).

RESULTS

SPAN index ≥100 was associated with higher mortality rate and higher modified Rankin Scale at discharge in AIS patients who received the different treatments. Compared to the lower AUCs for the SPAN-alone model across all groups, the AUCs of the logistic regression-boosted model were 0.838, 0.857, 0.766 and 0.875 for the whole cohort, non-tPA, IV-tPA and IAT groups, respectively. Similarly, the AUCs of the generated artificial neural network were 0.846, 0.858, 0.785 and 0.859 for the whole cohort, non-tPA, IV-tPA and IAT groups, respectively, while for gradient boosting decision tree model, we computed 0.850, 0.863, 0.779 and 0.815.

CONCLUSIONS

SPAN index has prognostic relevance in patients with AIS who received different treatments. The generated machine learning-based models exhibit good performance for predicting the functional recovery of AIS; thus, their proposed clinical application to aid outcome prediction and decision-making for the patients with AIS.

Comparison of risk of serious cardiovascular events after haemorrhagic versus ischaemic stroke: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Patients with ischaemic stroke are considered a very-high risk population for subsequent cardiovascular events and guidelines recommend intensive preventive strategies. In contrast, there is no clear recommendation that patients with haemorrhagic stroke should also be regarded as a very-high cardiovascular risk population.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity/mortality between patients with incident haemorrhagic versus ischaemic stroke.

METHODS

Patients aged >18 years with incident haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke between 1998-2017, and no prior history of serious vascular event were identified from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD-GOLD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data.

RESULTS

The cohort included 32,091 patients with an overall follow-up of 381,237 person-years (median: 11.8 years). After adjusting for potential confounders, patients with incident haemorrhagic stroke had no significantly different risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity compared with patients with incident ischaemic stroke - CHD [HR:0.86, 95%CI:0.56-1.32], recurrent stroke [HR:0.92, 95%CI:0.83-1.02], PVD [HR:1.15, 95%CI:0.56-2.38], or heart failure [HR:1.03, 95%CI:0.61-1.74]. Patients with incident haemorrhagic stroke had significantly higher risk of subsequent CVD-related mortality [HR:2.35, 95%CI:2.04-2.72] and all-cause mortality [HR:2.16, 95%CI: 1.94-2.41]. Propensity-score matched analysis of 1,039 patients with haemorrhagic stroke and 1,039 with ischaemic stroke showed similar risk in subsequent cardiovascular morbidity - CHD [stratified hazard ratio (sHR):0.92, 95%CI:0.55-1.54], recurrent stroke [sHR:0.93, 95%CI:0.82-1.02)], PVD [sHR:1.04 95%CI:0.45-2.41], or heart failure [HR:0.71, 95%CI:0.39-1.27].

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of subsequent cardiovascular events is similar between patients with incident haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke. Patients with previous haemorrhagic stroke should be regarded as a population at very-high risk of subsequent CVD.

Actigraphic Measurement of the Upper Limbs for the Prediction of Ischemic Stroke Prognosis: An Observational Study

Background: It is often challenging to formulate a reliable prognosis for patients with acute ischemic stroke. The most accepted prognostic factors may not be sufficient to predict the recovery process. In this view, describing the evolution of motor deficits over time via sensors might be useful for strengthening the prognostic model. Our aim was to assess whether an actigraphic-based parameter (Asymmetry Rate Index for the 24 h period (AR2_24 h)) obtained in the acute stroke phase could be a predictor of a 90 d prognosis. Methods: In this observational study, we recorded and analyzed the 24 h upper limb movement asymmetry of 20 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke during their stay in a stroke unit. We recorded the motor activity of both arms using two programmable actigraphic systems positioned on patients’ wrists. We clinically evaluated the stroke patients by NIHSS in the acute phase and then assessed them across 90 days using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Results: We found that the AR2_24 h parameter positively correlates with the 90 d mRS (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). Moreover, we found that an AR2_24 h > 32% predicts a poorer outcome (90 d mRS > 2), with sensitivity = 100% and specificity = 89%. Conclusions: Sensor-based parameters might provide useful information for predicting ischemic stroke prognosis in the acute phase.

Association of Time of Day When Endovascular Therapy for Stroke Starts and Functional Outcome

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between endovascular therapy (EVT) start time in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and midterm functional outcome.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all patients with AIS treated with EVT from 2 stroke center registries from January 2012 to December 2018. The primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and the utility-weighted mRS (uw-mRS) at 90 days. A proportional odds model was used to calculate the common odds ratio (OR) as a measure of the likelihood that the intervention at a given EVT start time would lead to lower scores on the mRS (shift analysis).

RESULTS

A total of 1,558 cases were equally allotted into 12 EVT start time periods. The primary outcome favored EVT start times in the morning at 08:00-10:20 and 10:20-11:34 (OR, 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38 to 0.75; p < 0.001; OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.87; p = 0.006, respectively), while it disfavored EVT start times at the end of the working day at 15:55-17:15 and 18:55-20:55 (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.09; p = 0.034; OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.03-2.15; p = 0.033). Symptom onset to EVT start time was significantly higher and use of IV tissue plasminogen activator significantly lower between 10:20 and 11:34 (p < 0.004 and p = 0.012, respectively).

CONCLUSION

EVT for AIS in the morning leads to better midterm functional outcome, while EVT at the end of the work day leads to poorer midterm functional outcome. Difference in baseline factors, standard workflow, and technical efficacy metrics could not be identified as potential mediators of this effect.

QT Interval Dispersion as a Predictor of Clinical Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose: QT dispersion (QTd) abnormalities are widely documented in stroke patients. This study aims to investigate the association between QTd and clinical outcomes in IS patients.

Methods: IS patients registered in the Blood Pressure and Clinical Outcome in transient ischemic attack (TIA) or IS (BOSS) registry between 2012 and 2014 within 24 h of onset were analyzed. In this prospective observational study, we identified 1,522 IS cases with adequate electrocardiographic evaluations to assess QTd after the index stroke. Patients were classified into four groups based on the quartile of QTd, with the lowest group as the reference. The primary stroke outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≥3 at 1-year. Multiple logistic regressions were utilized to investigate the association between QTd and outcome events.

Results: The mean QTd across all cases was 57 ms (40–83). Functional dependency or death was documented in 214 (14.98%) cases at 1 year. After adjusting for confounders, the prevalence of death and major disability (mRS ≥ 3) showed significant differences according to the quartile of QTd, with the risk of death and major disability (mRS ≥ 3) at 1 year being significantly higher for patients in Q4 than for those in Q1 (adjusted OR = 1.626, 95% CI:1.033–2.560). However, there were no significant correlation between QTd and the event outcomes at 1 year.

Conclusions: QTd was associated with poor functional outcomes at 1 year. QTd is a useful surrogate marker for adverse functional prognosis, which might help to stratify risk in patients with acute IS.

Real-World Comparison of Human and Software Image Assessment in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients' Qualification for Reperfusion Treatment

Our aim was to compare human and computer accuracy in reading medical images of acute stroke patients. We analyzed data of patients who underwent assessment of Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) and CT Perfusion (CTP) via Rapid Processing of Perfusion and Diffusion (RAPID) software RAPID ASPECTS, and RAPID CTP), compared to radiologist reports and manual measurements. We compared volumes calculated by RAPID CTP software with those selected by scanner-equipped software (GE). For reference, follow-up images were manually assessed in accordance with the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) territories retrospectively. Although exact ASPECTS score agreement between the automatic and manual methods, and between each method and follow-up, was poor, crossing of the threshold for reperfusion therapy was characterized by an 80% match. CT perfusion analyses yielded only slight agreement (kappa = 0.193) in the qualification of patients for therapy. Either automatic or manual scoring methods of non-contrast images imply similar clinical decisions in real-world circumstances. However, volume measurements performed by fully automatic and manually assisted systems are not comparable. Thresholds devised and validated for computer algorithms are not compatible with measurements performed manually using other software and should not be applied to setups other than those with which they were developed.

The PLAN score can predict poor outcomes of intracerebral hemorrhage

Background

For patients hospitalized after acute ischemic stroke (AIS), the preadmission comorbidities, level of consciousness (LOC), age and neurologic deficit (PLAN) score can help to identify those who may have a poor outcome. Implementing the PLAN score in other types of stroke may also have predictive value. Our study aimed to evaluate the PLAN score's prognostic accuracy in predicting 1-year mortality and severe disability after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods

We analyzed data found in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) of 2,453 hospitalized patients in 132 urban Chinese hospitals, diagnosed with ICH from September 2007 to August 2008. The outcomes analysis included 30-day mortality, modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 5-6 at discharge, and 1-year mortality. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed, and we calculated consistency statistics (C statistic). We evaluated the PLAN score performance using area under the curve (AUC) calculations.

Results

We found that the 30-day mortality was 12.6%, the frequency of a mRS 5-6 at discharge was 20.6%, and 1-year mortality was 21.9%. The PLAN score had good predictive value in 30-day mortality (C statistic, 0.82), death or severe dependence at discharge (0.84), and 1-year mortality (0.82).

Conclusions

In patients hospitalized for ICH, the 30-day mortality, death or severe dependence at discharge and 1-year mortality can be predicted by the PLAN score. Similarly to patients hospitalized after AIS, the PLAN score can help to identify patients likely to have poor outcomes following hospitalization for ICH.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk

OBJECTIVE

A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

METHODS

We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ²: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ²: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

Predicting functional outcomes after stroke: an observational study of acute single-channel EEG

Background: Early and objective prediction of functional outcome after stroke is an important issue in rehabilitation. Electroencephalography (EEG) has long been utilized to describe and monitor brain function following neuro-trauma, and technological advances have improved usability in the acute setting. However, skepticism persists whether EEG can provide the same prognostic value as neurological examination.Objective: The current cohort study examined the relationship between acute single-channel EEG and functional outcomes after stroke.Methods: Resting-state EEG recorded at a single left pre-frontal EEG channel (FP1) was obtained from 16 adults within 72 h of first stroke. At 30 and 90 days, measures of disability (modified Rankin Scale; mRS) and involvement in daily activities (modified Barthel Index; mBI) were obtained. Acute EEG measures were correlated with functional outcomes and compared to an early neurological examination of stroke severity using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Classification of good outcomes (mRS ≤1 or mBI ≥95) was also examined using Receiver Operator Curve analyses.Results: One-third to one-half of participants experienced incomplete post-stroke recovery, depending on the time point and measure. Functional outcomes correlated with acute theta values (r_s 0.45-0.60), with the strength of associations equivalent to previously reported values obtained from conventional multi-channel systems. Acute theta values ≥0.25 were associated with good outcomes, with positive (67-83%) and negative predictive values (70-90%) comparable to those obtained using the NIHSS.Conclusions: Acute, single-channel EEG can provide unique, non-overlapping clinical information, which may facilitate objective prediction of functional outcome after stroke.

External Validation of the PREMISE Score in the Athens Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND

A simple score was proposed recently for Predicting Early Mortality from Ischemic Stroke (PREMISE) derived from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry. This score could be useful in clinical practice and research. However, its generalizability is uncertain, as it was validated internally only.

AIMS

We aimed to validate the PREMISE score externally.

METHODS

The analysis was performed in the Athens Stroke Registry. The PREMISE score was calculated as described in the original publication. The outcome was death within 7 days after stroke. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the relative death risk in different strata of the PREMISE score using the lowest values of the score (ie, 0-4) as the reference category. We assessed the score's calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and its discriminatory power by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).

RESULTS

In 2608 consecutive patients (median age 71 years, 38.8% women) with acute ischemic stroke treated in the stroke unit, mortality increased with increasing PREMISE score from .1% (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 0%-.2%) in patients with a score of 0-4 to 28.2% (95% CI: 14.1%-42.3%) in patients with a score of ≥10. The risk for death was more than 6 times higher in patients with a PREMISE score of ≥10 compared to patients with 0-4 points (odds ratio [OR]:6.21, 95% CI:4.13-8.29). Τhe PREMISE score showed excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²: .01, P= .99) and good discriminatory power (AUC .873, 95% CI: .844-.901).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study confirms the prognostic accuracy of the PREMISE score in an independent cohort of patients with acute ischemic stroke treated in the stroke unit.

Thinking About the Future: A Review of Prognostic Scales Used in Acute Stroke

Background: There are many prognostic scales that aim to predict functional outcome following acute stroke. Despite considerable research interest, these scales have had limited impact in routine clinical practice. This may be due to perceived problems with internal validity (quality of research), as well as external validity (generalizability of results). We set out to collate information on exemplar stroke prognosis scales, giving particular attention to the scale content, derivation, and validation.

Methods: We performed a focused literature search, designed to return high profile scales that use baseline clinical data to predict mortality or disability. We described prognostic utility and collated information on the content, development and validation of the tools. We critically appraised chosen scales based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies (CHARMS).

Results: We chose 10 primary scales that met our inclusion criteria, six of which had revised/modified versions. Most primary scales used 5 input variables (range: 4–13), with substantial overlap in the variables included. All scales included age, eight included a measure of stroke severity, while five scales incorporated pre-stroke level of function (often using modified Rankin Scale), comorbidities and classification of stroke type. Through our critical appraisal, we found issues relating to excluding patients with missing data from derivation studies, and basing the selection of model variable on significance in univariable analysis (in both cases noted for six studies). We identified separate external validation studies for all primary scales but one, with a total of 60 validation studies.

Conclusions: Most acute stroke prognosis scales use similar variables to predict long-term outcomes and most have reasonable prognostic accuracy. While not all published scales followed best practice in development, most have been subsequently validated. Lack of clinical uptake may relate more to practical application of scales rather than validity. Impact studies are now necessary to investigate clinical usefulness of existing scales.

Oxidative lipoprotein markers predict poor functional outcome in patients with minor stroke or transient ischaemic attack

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Oxidative stress plays an important role in acute ischaemic stroke. However, the association of oxidative lipoprotein markers, including oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL), oxLDL:high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and oxLDL:low-density lipoprotein (LDL), with functional outcome of minor stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between oxidative lipoprotein markers and poor functional outcome in patients with minor stroke or TIA.

METHODS

All patients with minor stroke or TIA were recruited from the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Non-Disabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) trial. The poor functional outcome included modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 2-6 and 3-6 at 90-day and 12-month follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the associations of oxLDL, oxLDL:HDL and oxLDL:LDL with poor functional outcome.

RESULTS

Among 3019 patients included in this study, the median (interquartile range) oxLDL, oxLDL:HDL and oxLDL:LDL were 13.96 (6.65-28.81), 4.52 (2.08-9.32) and 11.73 (5.27-24.85) μg/dL, respectively. After adjusted for confounding factors, patients in the highest oxLDL quartile had a higher proportion of mRS score 2-6 at 90 days [hazard ratio (HR), 1.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-2.52] and 12 months (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99), and mRS score 3-6 at 90 days (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.29-3.04) and 12 months (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.09-2.89) when compared with the lowest oxLDL quartile (P < 0.05). Similar results were found for oxLDL:HDL and oxLDL:LDL.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of oxidative lipoprotein markers are independent predictors of poor functional outcome in patients with minor stroke or TIA at 90 days and 12 months.

A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

Background

Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA) for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors-namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.

Methods

We analyzed our local cohort (Berlin) of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel).

Results

sICH occurred in 53 (4.0%) of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4%) had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.79) in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60-0.77) in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.

Conclusion

We developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

Predictors of physical independence at discharge after stroke rehabilitation in a Dutch population

The aim of this study was to identify predictors, available at admission, of physical independence at discharge from inpatient rehabilitation. Secondary aims were to identify predictors of functional gain and length of stay (LOS). We included 1310 adult stroke patients who were admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in five Dutch rehabilitation centres. Data on the Utrecht Scale for Evaluation of Clinical Rehabilitation at admission and discharge (physical and cognitive independence, mood, pain and fatigue), age, sex and in a subsample stroke characteristics as well were collected. A prediction model was created using random coefficient analysis. None of the stroke characteristics were independently associated with physical independence or functional gain at discharge, or LOS. Higher physical and cognitive independence scores and severe pain at admission were predictors of higher physical independence scores at discharge. Furthermore, lower physical independence scores, higher cognitive independence scores, less pain at admission and younger age predicted more functional gain. Finally, lower physical and cognitive independence scores at admission and younger age predicted longer LOS. Physical independence at admission was the most robust predictor for rehabilitation outcome in a Dutch rehabilitation setting. To a lesser extent, age, cognitive independence and pain predicted rehabilitation outcome after stroke. Treatment of cognition and pain should be taken into account during rehabilitation. Further work needs to be carried out to establish whether focusing on these factors improves outcome after rehabilitation.

ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated.

METHODS

Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome.

RESULTS

In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P < 0.0001). 394 (61.2%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage were accurate compared with 583 (90.5%) of SEDAN score estimates (P < 0.0001). 160 (24.8%) of physicians' estimates about post-thrombolysis 3-month percentage probability of mRS 0-2 were accurate compared with 240 (37.3%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001). 260 (40.4%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of post-thrombolysis mRS 5-6 were accurate compared with 518 (80.4%) DRAGON score estimates (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke.

Predicting risk of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage and mortality after treatment with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator using SEDAN score

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The most feared complication after treatment with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA) is the occurrence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). The aims of the study were to predict the risk of sICH (ECASS II definition) after a therapy with rt-PA and to examine whether associations exist between SEDAN score and the early mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke in a monocenter study.

METHODS

During a 6-year period (2008-2013), 542 consecutive stroke patients (mean age, 73 ± 3 years; 51.1% women; median NIHSS score, 11) treated with IV thrombolysis were included in a monocenter study. SICH was diagnosed in according to the with ECASS II definition.

RESULTS

The absolute risk for sICH revealed 9.2% (95% CI, 6.5-11.4) of patients treated with IV thrombolysis and was 0%, 4.6% (95% CI, 1.3-7.9), 6.6% (95% CI, 3.3-10.5), 13.5% (95% CI, 6.7-19.2), 23.6% (95% CI, 12.7-34.5), and 26.7% (95% CI, 12.7-34.5) for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 SEDAN points. Logistic regression revealed that sICH was associated with increasing SEDAN scores (OR, 1.93 per SEDAN point; 95% CI, 1.51-2.46; P < 0.001). The predictive performance was assessed with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80; P < 0.001). During hospitalization (median, 9 days), 53 patients (9.8%; 95% CI, 7.4-12.45) died. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with than those without sICH (30 vs 7.7%; P < 0.001), and it was increased with increasing SEDAN score (OR, 1.45 per point; 95% CI, 1.12-1.89; P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher SEDAN score was associated with an increased risk of sICH and early mortality in this monocenter study.

Increased thrombin activity following reperfusion after ischemic stroke alters synaptic transmission in the hippocampus

Thrombin, a key player in thrombogenesis, affects cells in the brain through activation of its receptors. Low levels of thrombin activity are protective while high levels are toxic. We sought to quantify thrombin activity levels and their spatial distribution in brains of mice following reperfusion after ischemic stroke focusing on infarct, peri-infarct and contralateral areas. In order to find out the contribution of brain-derived thrombin, mRNA levels of both prothrombin and factor X were determined. Furthermore, we assessed the effect of thrombin levels that were measured in the ischemic brain on synaptic transmission. We found that in the brains of mice following transient middle cerebral artery occlusion, thrombin activity is elevated throughout the ischemic hemisphere, including in peri-infarct areas (90 ± 33 and 60 ± 18 mU/mL, in the infarct and peri-infarct areas, respectively, compared to 11 ± 3 and 12 ± 5 mU/mL, in the corresponding contralateral areas; mean ± SE; p < 0.05). Brain mRNA levels of prothrombin and, in particular, factor X are up-regulated in the ischemic core. Hippocampal slices treated with thrombin concentrations as found in the ischemic hemisphere show altered synaptic responses. We conclude that high thrombin activity following reperfusion after ischemic stroke may cause synaptic dysfunction. Following transient middle cerebral artery occlusion in mice, thrombin activity is elevated throughout the ischemic hemisphere, including in peri-infarct areas. Brain mRNA levels of prothrombin and factor X are up-regulated in the ischemic core. Thrombin is known to affect synaptic function in a concentration dependent manner and hippocampal slices treated with the concentrations found in the ischemic hemisphere show altered synaptic responses. We conclude that in ischemic stroke, the high brain thrombin activity found after reperfusion may cause synaptic dysfunction.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score.

METHODS

Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

RESULTS

The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.