Population-based study of blood biomarkers in prediction of subacute recurrent stroke

Plasma fibrinogen and risk of vascular recurrence after ischaemic stroke: An individual participant and summary-level data meta-analysis of 11 prospective studies

INTRODUCTION

Inflammation is an emerging target for secondary prevention after stroke and randomised trials of anti-inflammatory therapies are ongoing. Fibrinogen, a putative pro-inflammatory marker, is associated with first stroke, but its association with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after stroke is unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We did a systematic review investigating the association between fibrinogen and post-stroke vascular recurrence. Authors were invited to provide individual-participant data (IPD) and where available we did within-study multivariable analyses with adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and medications. Adjusted summary-level data was extracted from published reports from studies that did not provide IPD. We pooled risk ratios (RR) by random-effects meta-analysis by comparing supra-median with sub-median fibrinogen levels and performed pre-specified subgroup analysis according to timing of phlebotomy after the index event.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included (14,002 patients, 42,800 follow-up years), of which seven provided IPD. Fibrinogen was associated with recurrent MACE on unadjusted (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.17-1.57, supra-median vs sub-median) and adjusted models (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.06-1.38). Fibrinogen was associated with recurrent stroke on univariate analysis (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.39), but not after adjustment (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.94-1.31). The association with recurrent MACE was consistently observed in patients with post-acute (⩾14 days) fibrinogen measures (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16-1.45), but not in those with early phlebotomy (<14 days) (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.82-1.18) (Pinteraction = 0.01). Similar associations were observed for recurrent stroke.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Fibrinogen was independently associated with recurrence after stroke, but the association was modified by timing of phlebotomy. Fibrinogen measurements might be useful to identify patients who are more likely to derive benefit from anti-inflammatory therapies after stroke.

Fluid biomarkers of the neurovascular unit in cerebrovascular disease and vascular cognitive disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The disruption of the neurovascular unit (NVU), which maintains the integrity of the blood brain barrier (BBB), has been identified as a critical mechanism in the development of cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative disorders. However, the understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms linking NVU dysfunction to the disorders is incomplete, and reliable blood biomarkers to measure NVU dysfunction are yet to be established. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify biomarkers associated with BBB dysfunction in large vessel disease, small vessel disease (SVD) and vascular cognitive disorders (VCD).

Methods

A literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus and PsychINFO to identify blood biomarkers related to dysfunction of the NVU in disorders with vascular pathologies published until 20 November 2023. Studies that assayed one or more specific markers in human serum or plasma were included. Quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Effects were pooled and methodological heterogeneity examined using the random effects model.

Results

A total of 112 studies were included in this review. Where study numbers allowed, biomarkers were analysed using random effect meta-analysis for VCD (1 biomarker; 5 studies) and cerebrovascular disorders, including stroke and SVD (9 biomarkers; 29 studies) while all remaining biomarkers (n = 17 biomarkers; 78 studies) were examined through qualitative analysis. Results of the meta-analysis revealed that cerebrospinal fluid/serum albumin quotient (Q-Alb) reliably differentiates VCD patients from healthy controls (MD = 2.77; 95 % CI = 1.97-3.57; p < 0.0001) while commonly measured biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction (VEGF, VCAM-1, ICAM-1, vWF and E-selectin) and neuronal injury (NfL) were significantly elevated in vascular pathologies. A qualitative assessment of non-meta-analysed biomarkers revealed NSE, NfL, vWF, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, lipocalin-2, MMP-2 and MMP-9 levels to be upregulated in VCD, although these findings were not consistently replicated.

Conclusions

This review identifies several promising biomarkers of NVU dysfunction which require further validation. A panel of biomarkers representing multiple pathophysiological pathways may offer greater discriminative power in distinguishing possible disease mechanisms of VCD.

Predictive Role of hsCRP in Recurrent Stroke Differed According to Severity of Cerebrovascular Disease: Analysis from a Prospective Cohort Study

Elevated levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke. However, it is still unknown whether the predictive value of hsCRP differed according to the severity of cerebrovascular disease. We used the cohort of the prospective multicenter cohort study of the Third China National Stroke Registry (CNSR-III), in which 10,765 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) had hsCRP levels measured. Patients were classified into minor stroke, or TIA, and non-minor stroke. The primary outcome was a new stroke within 1 year. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of hsCRP and its outcome. Elevated levels of hsCRP were associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke in minor stroke or TIA patients, irrespective of using a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of ≤3 (the highest quartile vs. the lowest quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.12-1.97; p = 0.007) or ≤5 (the highest quartile vs. the lowest quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.15-1.84; p = 0.002) to define minor stroke. Such association was more apparent in the large-artery atherosclerosis subtype. However, for the patients with non-minor stroke, the association of hsCRP with recurrent stroke disappeared.

Red cell distribution width: a novel predictive biomarker for stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack

OBJECTIVE

Predicting the prognosis of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is difficult for many frontline clinicians. The purpose of this study was to determine whether subsequent stroke in TIA patients can be predicted via red blood cell distribution width (RDW).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 360 consecutive patients with new-onset TIA in our stroke centre, were enrolled over the period studied. The patients were divided into three groups: 103 TIA patients, 206 ischaemic stroke (IS) patients and 51 patients with haemorrhagic stroke (HS) within 7 days after TIA. Complete blood count, biochemical parameters and brain imaging were performed on all patients.

RESULTS

The mean RDW values of patients with IS and HS after TIA were significantly higher than patients with TIA (13.35 ± 1.59 vs 12.84 ± 1.19, 13.32 ± 1.08 vs 12.84 ± 1.19, respectively, all p ≤ .001). In a multivariate model, RDW was independently associated with stroke after TIA (IS: odds ratio (OR) = 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.46-3.35, p = .002; HS: OR = 1.511, 95% CI = 1.101-2.074, p = .011). Compared to ABCD² scores, the diagnostic power of RDW in the differentiation of patients with IS after TIA was better (area under curve (AUC): 0.731 vs 0.613, p = .015). When an RDW cut-off value of 13.95% was accepted for differentiating patients with IS from TIA, the sensitivity and specificity were 73.7% and 74.3%, respectively. However, the AUC for the ability of the RDW to predict HS was 0.653 (95% CI = 0.589-0.716; p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The early determination of RDW is a promising, rapid, easy and inexpensive biomarker to predict the subsequent stroke in TIA patients, especially for IS. KEY MESSAGESThe most important result of our study is to show that (1) the higher RDW, the earlier the stroke onset and (2) RDW ≥13.95% has a 2.52-fold risk of ischaemic stroke in TIA patients, and RDW ≥12.85% has a 1.51-fold risk of haemorrhagic stroke.As an economic and accessible hematological marker, baseline RDW may serve as a useful biomarker for risk stratification in TIA patients.

Association Between High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein and Prognosis in Different Periods After Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

Background

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between hsCRP (high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein) and prognosis over time after stroke onset.

Methods and Results

In this prespecified prospective substudy of the Third China National Stroke Registry, a total of 9438 patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack and measured hsCRP were included. Patients were categorized into 3 groups according to the sampling time after index onset (<24 hours, 24–72 hours, 72 hours–8 days). The outcomes consisted of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events within 1 year, and dependence or death defined as modified Rankin Scale score of 3 to 6 at 1 year. The associations between hsCRP and outcomes in different groups were analyzed by using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models. The median levels of hsCRP within 24 hours, between 24 and 72 hours and between 72 hours and 8 days were 2.01, 1.72, and 1.72 mg/L, respectively (P < 0.05). Compared with the bottom quartile, patients in the top quartile measured within 72 hours were at increased risk of recurrent stroke (<24 hours: adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.57 [95% CI, 1.05–2.35], P = 0.03; 24–72 hours: adjusted HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.18–2.17], P = 0.003). Association was attenuated after further adjusting for the Org 10 172 test in the Treatment of Acute Stroke classification (<24 hours: adjusted HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.01–2.27]; P = 0.05; 24–72 hours: adjusted HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.14–2.10]; P = 0.01). The association only existed in patients with large‐artery atherosclerosis (adjusted HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.06–2.64]; P = 0.03). However, the association was not found in the hsCRP level measured between 72 hours and 8 days. Similar results were found for the outcome of combined vascular events. Additionally, hsCRP levels measured between 24 and 72 hours were associated with an increased risk of poor functional outcomes.

Conclusions

Elevated levels of hsCRP measured in the first 72 hours after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack but not 72 hours to 8 days, were associated with an increased risk of 1‐year stroke recurrence.

Applying Machine Learning to Carotid Sonographic Features for Recurrent Stroke in Patients With Acute Stroke

BACKGROUND

Although carotid sonographic features have been used as predictors of recurrent stroke, few large-scale studies have explored the use of machine learning analysis of carotid sonographic features for the prediction of recurrent stroke.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected electronic medical records of enrolled patients from the data warehouse of China Medical University Hospital, a tertiary medical center in central Taiwan, from January 2012 to November 2018. We included patients who underwent a documented carotid ultrasound within 30 days of experiencing an acute first stroke during the study period. We classified these participants into two groups: those with non-recurrent stroke (those who has not been diagnosed with acute stroke again during the study period) and those with recurrent stoke (those who has been diagnosed with acute stroke during the study period). A total of 1,235 carotid sonographic parameters were analyzed. Data on the patients' demographic characteristics and comorbidities were also collected. Python 3.7 was used as the programming language, and the scikit-learn toolkit was used to complete the derivation and verification of the machine learning methods.

RESULTS

In total, 2,411 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 1,896 and 515 had non-recurrent and recurrent stroke, respectively. After extraction, 43 features of carotid sonography (36 carotid sonographic parameters and seven transcranial color Doppler sonographic parameter) were analyzed. For predicting recurrent stroke, CatBoost achieved the highest area under the curve (0.844, CIs 95% 0.824-0.868), followed by the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (0.832, CIs 95% 0.813-0.851), random forest (0.819, CIs 95% 0.802-0.846), support-vector machine (0.759, CIs 95% 0.739-0.781), logistic regression (0.781, CIs 95% 0.764-0.800), and decision tree (0.735, CIs 95% 0.717-0.755) models.

CONCLUSION

When using the CatBoost model, the top three features for predicting recurrent stroke were determined to be the use of anticoagulation medications, the use of NSAID medications, and the resistive index of the left subclavian artery. The CatBoost model demonstrated efficiency and achieved optimal performance in the predictive classification of non-recurrent and recurrent stroke.

Does previous stroke modify the relationship between inflammatory biomarkers and clinical endpoints in CKD patients?

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an independent risk factor for stroke. Stroke is also an independent risk factor for worse CKD outcomes and inflammation may contribute to this bidirectional relationship. This study aims to investigate inflammatory biomarkers in patients with non-dialysis CKD (ND-CKD) with and without stroke.

Methods

A propensity matched sample from > 3000 Salford Kidney Study (SKS) patients, differentiated by previous stroke at study recruitment, had stored plasma analyzed for interleukin- 6 (IL-6), Von Willebrand Factor (VWF) and C-reactive protein (CRP). Multivariable cox regression analysis investigated associations between inflammation and death, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and future non-fatal cardiovascular events (NFCVE).

Results

A total of 157 previous stroke patients were compared against 162 non-stroke patients. There were no significant differences in inflammatory biomarkers between the two groups. Previous stroke was associated with greater mortality risk, hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) was 1.45 (1.07–1.97). Higher inflammatory biomarker concentrations were independently associated with death but not ESRD or NFCVE in the total population. For each 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log IL-6, VWF and CRP, the HR for all-cause mortality were 1.35 (1.10–1.70), 1.26 (1.05–1.51) and 1.34 (1.12–1.61), respectively. CRP retained its independent association (HR 1.47 (1.15–1.87)) with death in the stroke population.

Conclusion

Previous stroke is an important determinant of mortality. However, the adverse combination of stroke and ND-CKD does not seem to be driven by higher levels of inflammation detected after the stroke event. Biomarkers of inflammation were associated with worse outcome in both stroke and non-stroke ND-CKD patients.

Trial registration

15/NW/0818.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Blood Biomarkers in Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Ischemic Stroke: An Up-To-Date Narrative Review

INTRODUCTION

Early diagnosis and correct risk stratification in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor ischemic stroke (MIS) is crucial for the high rate of subsequent disabling stroke. Although highly improved, diagnosis and prognostication of TIA/MIS patients remain still based on clinical and neuroimaging findings, with some inter-rater variability even among trained neurologists.

OBJECTIVES

To provide an up-to-date overview of diagnostic and prognostic blood biomarkers in TIA and MIS patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We performed a bibliographic search on PubMed database with last access on July 10^th 2021. More than 680 articles were screened and we finally included only primary studies on blood biomarkers.

RESULTS

In a narrative fashion, we discussed about blood biomarkers investigated in TIA/MIS patients, including inflammatory, thrombosis, neuronal injury and cardiac analytes, antibodies and microRNAs. Other soluble molecules have been demonstrated to predict the risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events or treatment response in these patients. A rapid point of care assay, combining the determination of different biomarkers, has been developed to improve triage recognition of acute cerebrovascular accidents.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of blood biomarkers in the clinical management of TIA/MIS could ameliorate urgent identification, risk stratification and individual treatment choice. Large prospective and longitudinal studies, adopting standardized sampling and analytic procedures, are needed to clarify blood biomarkers kinetic and their relationship with TIA and minor stroke etiology.

Biomarkers Predictive of Long-Term Outcome After Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The goal of this study was to systematically review the utility of serum biomarkers in the setting of ischemic stroke (IS) to predict long-term outcome.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using the PubMed and MEDLINE databases for studies published between 1986-2018. All studies assessing long-term functional outcome (defined as 30 days or greater) following IS with respect to serum biomarkers were included. Data were extracted and pooled using a meta-analysis of odds ratios.

RESULTS

Of the total 2928 articles in the original literature search, 183 studies were ultimately selected. A total of 127 serum biomarkers were included. Biomarkers were grouped into several categories: inflammatory (32), peptide/enzymatic (30), oxidative/metabolic (28), hormone/steroid based (23), and hematologic/vascular (14). The most commonly studied biomarkers in each category were found to be CRP, S100β, albumin, copeptin, and D-dimer. With the exception of S100β, all were found to be statistically associated with >30-day outcome after ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum-based biomarkers have the potential to predict functional outcome in IS patients. This meta-analysis has identified CRP, albumin, copeptin, and D-dimer to be significantly associated with long-term outcome after IS. These biomarkers have the potential to serve as a platform for prognosticating stroke outcomes after 30 days. These serum biomarkers, some of which are routinely ordered, can be combined with imaging biomarkers and used in artificial intelligence algorithms to provide refined predictive outcomes after injury. Ultimately these tools will assist physicians in providing guidance to families with regards to long-term independence of patients.

Colchicine Use and Risks of Stroke Recurrence in Acute Non-Cardiogenic Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: The objective is to study whether the cardiovascular protective effects of colchicines could be applied to non-cardiogenic ischemic stroke (IS) patients. Patients and Methods: Non-cardiogenic IS patients were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Eligible patients were divided into chronic and non-chronic use categories based on their long-term status of colchicine use. The non-chronic use category was subdivided into (1) non-user and (2) new user groups while the chronic use category was divided into (3) former user and (4) long-term user groups according to the patient's recent status of colchicine use. Inverse probability of treatment weights for propensity scores was used to balance the baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was recurrent IS, which was compared within the non-chronic use and chronic use categories. Results: In the non-chronic use category, the number of patients was 355,498 and 912 in the non-user and new user groups, respectively. In the chronic use category, the number of patients was 4737 and 4354 in the former user and long-term user groups, respectively. In the non-chronic use category, patients in the new user group had a marginally lower risk of recurrent IS at 6-months (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.97) and 2-years (SHR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.91-0.93) follow up. In the chronic use category, patients in the long-term user group also had a marginally lower risk of recurrent IS at 6-months (SHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88) and 2-years (SHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88) follow up. The effect of colchicine on the reduced risk of recurrent IS was more favorable in patients who also used statins. Conclusions: Recent colchicine use in acute non-cardiogenic IS patients is associated with marginal fewer incidences of recurrent IS. Patients with concurrent statin use may have more profound protective effects.

Dose-Dependent Association of Inflammatory Cytokines with Carotid Atherosclerosis in Transient Ischaemic Attack: Implications for Clinical Trials

INTRODUCTION

The 5-year recurrence risk after ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is 25-30%. Although inflammation may be a target for prevention trials, the contribution of plaque inflammation to acute cerebrovascular events remains unclear. We investigated the association of acute inflammatory cytokines and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) with recently symptomatic carotid atherosclerosis in a prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Blood and Imaging markers of TIA BIO-TIA) is a multicentre prospective study of imaging and inflammatory markers in patients with TIA. Exclusion criteria were infection and other co-morbid illnesses associated with inflammation. CRP and serum cytokines (interleukin [IL]-6, IL-1β, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, interferon-γ [IFN-γ] and tumour necrosis factor-α [TNF-α]) were measured. All patients had carotid imaging.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty-eight TIA cases and 64 controls (TIA mimics) were included. Forty-nine (20.6%) cases had symptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis. Pro-inflammatory cytokine levels increased in a dose-dependent manner across controls, TIA without carotid stenosis (CS), and TIA with CS (IL-1β, ptrend = 0.03; IL-6, ptrend < 0.0001; IL-8, ptrend = 0.01; interferon (IFN)-γ, ptrend = 0.005; TNF-α, ptrend = 0.003). Results were unchanged when DWI-positive cases were excluded. On multivariable linear regression, only age (p = 0.01) and CS (p = 0.04) independently predicted log-IL-6. On multivariable Cox regression, CRP was the only independent predictor of 90-day stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio per 1-unit increase 1.03 [95% CI: 1.01-1.05], p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

Symptomatic carotid atherosclerosis was associated with elevated cytokines in TIA patients after controlling for other sources of inflammation. High-sensitivity CRP was associated with recurrent ischaemic stroke at 90 days. These findings implicate acute plaque inflammation in the pathogenesis of cerebral thromboembolism and support a rationale for randomized trials of anti-inflammatory therapy for stroke patients, who were excluded from coronary trials.

Inflammatory cytokines, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and risk of one-year vascular events, death, and poor functional outcome after stroke and transient ischemic attack

Background

Inflammation driven by pro-inflammatory cytokines is a new therapeutic target in coronary disease. Few data exist on the association of key upstream cytokines and post-stroke recurrence. In a prospective cohort study, we investigated the association between pivotal cytokines, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and one-year outcomes.

Methods

BIO-STROKETIA is a multi-center prospective cohort study of non-severe ischemic stroke (modified Rankin score ≤ 3) and transient ischemic attack. Controls were patients with transient symptoms attending transient ischemic attack clinics with non-ischemic final diagnosis. Exclusion criteria were severe stroke, infection, and other pro-inflammatory disease; hsCRP and cytokines (interleukin (IL) 6, IL-1β, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor-necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)) were measured. The primary outcome was one-year recurrent stroke/coronary events (fatal and non-fatal).

Results

In this study, 680 patients (439 stroke, 241 transient ischemic attack) and 68 controls were included. IL-6, IL-1β, IL-8, IFN-γ, TNF-α, and hsCRP were higher in stroke/transient ischemic attack cases (p ≤ 0.01 for all). On multivariable Cox regression, IL-6, IL-8, and hsCRP independently predicted one-year recurrent vascular events (adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) per-quartile increase IL-6 1.31, confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.68, p = 0.03; IL-8 1.47, CI 1.15–1.89, p = 0.002; hsCRP 1.28, CI 1.01–1.62, p = 0.04). IL-6 (aHR 1.98, CI 1.26–3.14, p = 0.003) and hsCRP (aHR 1.81, CI 1.20–2.74, p = 0.005) independently predicted one-year fatality. IL-6 and hsCRP (adjusted odds ratio per-unit increase 1.02, CI 1.01–1.04) predicted poor functional outcome, with a trend for IL-1β (p = 0.054).

Conclusion

Baseline inflammatory cytokines independently predicted late recurrence, supporting a rationale for randomized trials of anti-inflammatory agents for prevention after stroke and suggesting that targeted therapy to high-risk patients with high baseline inflammation may be beneficial.

Interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and risk of recurrence after ischaemic stroke: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Recent randomised trials showed benefit for anti-inflammatory therapies in coronary disease but excluded stroke. The prognostic value of blood inflammatory markers after stroke is uncertain and guidelines do not recommend their routine measurement for risk stratification.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies investigating the association of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and fibrinogen and risk of recurrent stroke or major vascular events (MVEs). We searched EMBASE and Ovid Medline until 10/1/19. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting comparable effect measures.

Results

Of 2,515 reports identified, 39 met eligibility criteria (IL-6, n = 10; CRP, n = 33; fibrinogen, n = 16). An association with recurrent stroke was reported in 12/26 studies (CRP), 2/11 (fibrinogen) and 3/6 (IL-6). On random-effects meta-analysis of comparable studies, CRP was associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke [pooled hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard-deviation (SD) increase in log_e-CRP (1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22, p < 0.01)] and MVEs (pooled HR 1.21, CI 1.10-1.34, p < 0.01). Fibrinogen was also associated with recurrent stroke (HR 1.26, CI 1.07-1.47, p < 0.01) and MVEs (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.49, p < 0.01). Trends were identified for IL-6 for recurrent stroke (HR per 1-SD increase 1.17, CI 0.97-1.41, p = 0.10) and MVEs (HR 1.22, CI 0.96-1.55, p = 0.10).

Conclusion

Despite evidence suggesting an association between inflammatory markers and post-stroke vascular recurrence, substantial methodological heterogeneity was apparent between studies. Individual-patient pooled analysis and standardisation of methods are needed to determine the prognostic role of blood inflammatory markers and to improve patient selection for randomised trials of inflammatory therapies.

Inflammation of carotid plaques and risk of cerebrovascular events

Carotid atherosclerotic plaques represent a risk for ischemic stroke. The data indicate that the risk for distal embolization from atherosclerotic lesions in internal carotid arteries is not related only to the degree of stenosis but also to the composition of plaques. The stability of atherosclerotic plaque depends on the thickness of the fibrous cap and plaque hemorrhage. Recent research indicated that the inflammatory activity of atherosclerotic lesions is pivotal in the progression of atherosclerotic plaques. It also promotes the development of unstable atherosclerotic lesions and is related to thromboembolic cerebrovascular complications. Inflammation destabilizes atherosclerotic plaques through the degradation of their fibrotic structure. Inflammation of atherosclerotic plaques was confirmed by histopathologic findings and levels of circulating inflammatory markers which were correlated to the intensity of the inflammation in atherosclerotic lesions. Recently, new techniques like fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18-FDG PET) were developed for the identification of inflammation of atherosclerotic lesions in the vessel wall in vivo. Systemic inflammatory markers, particularly interleukins, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and metalloproteinases were shown to be related to the intensity of the inflammatory process in atherosclerotic lesions and the cerebrovascular events. Identification of inflamed atherosclerotic plaques may help to identify unstable atherosclerotic lesions and subjects at high risk for cerebrovascular incidents who need intensive preventive measures including anti-inflammatory medication.

Associations of blood biomarkers with glomerular filtration rate in patients with TIA and stroke: population-based study

Background and purpose

Non-traditional risk factors such as chronic inflammation, oxidative stress and thrombogenic factors are believed to contribute to the excess stroke risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD) by triggering vascular injury and endothelial dysfunction. We aimed to determine how well a panel of biomarkers representative of these factors would correlate with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke. We also investigated whether eGFR would confound previously reported associations between biomarkers and mortality.

Methods

We studied a panel of 16 blood biomarkers related to inflammation, thrombosis, atherogenesis and cardiac or neuronal cell damage in TIA or ischaemic stroke in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Biomarker levels were log-transformed and correlated with eGFR, adjusted for age. Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis.

Results

Among 1297 patients with TIA or stroke, 52.7% (n=684) of patients had CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m²). There was a moderate correlation between log-eGFR and the log-transformed soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor-1 (R²=0.21), attenuating with adjustment for age (R²=0.12). There were moderate-to-strong correlations with markers of cardiac injury, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and heart-type fatty acid binding protein (hFABP, R²=0.14 and 0.34, respectively). The strongest correlation after adjustment for age was between hFABP and eGFR (R²=0.20). Adjusting for eGFR did not impact any biomarker associations with mortality.

Conclusions

Correlations between biomarkers related to inflammation and thrombosis with renal dysfunction in the setting of cerebrovascular events were generally modest after adjustment for age, suggesting that putative risk factors such as chronic inflammation or coagulopathy are unlikely to be important stroke mechanisms in patients with CKD.

Biological age is a novel biomarker to predict stroke recurrence

BACKGROUND

Stroke recurrence (SR) after an ischemic stroke is an important cause of death and disability. We conducted a hospital-based study to evaluate the role of biological age (b-Age: age-related DNA-methylation changes) as a risk factor for SR.

METHODS

We included 587 patients in the acute phase of stroke, assessed at one tertiary stroke center (Hospital del Mar: Barcelona, Spain). B-Age was estimated with 5 different methods based on DNA methylation, and Hannum's method was the one that better performed. We analyzed the relationships between b-Age, chronological age, sex, vascular risk factors, coronary and peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, initial neurological severity assessed by National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), transient ischemic attack (TIA) in the 7 days preceding the index stroke, and symptomatic atherosclerosis. Stroke recurrence definition include: new symptoms that suggest a new ischemic event had occurred within 3 months after stroke onset and worsening by four points in the initial neurological severity (measured by National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score).

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis associated b-Age with SR [p = 0.003; OR = 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.09)], independently of chronological age [p = 0.022; OR = 0.96 (95% CI 0.94-1.00)], symptomatic atherosclerosis (stenosis > 50% in the symptomatic territory), transient ischemic attack (TIA) in the 7 days preceding the index stroke, and initial NIHSS. The b-Age of patients with SR was 2.7 years older than patients without SR.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with SR were biologically older than those without SR. B-Age was independently associated with high risk of developing SR.

Elevated circulating metalloproteinase 7 predicts recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with carotid stenosis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Major adverse cardiovascular events are the main cause of morbidity and mortality over the long term in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy. There are few reports assessing the prognostic value of markers of inflammation in relation to the risk of cardiovascular disease after carotid endarterectomy. Here, we aimed to determine whether matrix metalloproteinases (MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-7, MMP-9 and MMP-10), tissue inhibitor of MMPs (TIMP-1) and in vivo inflammation studied by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT predict recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with carotid stenosis who underwent endarterectomy.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was carried out on 31 consecutive patients with symptomatic (23/31) or asymptomatic (8/31) severe (> 70%) carotid stenosis who were scheduled for carotid endarterectomy between July 2013 and March 2016. In addition, 26 healthy controls were included in the study. Plasma and serum samples were collected 2 days prior to surgery and tested for MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-7, MMP-9, MMP-10, TIMP-1, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT focusing on several territories' vascular wall metabolism was performed on 29 of the patients because of no presurgical availability in 2 symptomatic patients. Histological and immunohistochemical studies were performed with antibodies targeting MMP-10, MMP-9, TIMP-1 and CD68.

RESULTS

The patients with carotid stenosis had significantly more circulating MMP-1, MMP-7 and MMP-10 than the healthy controls. Intraplaque TIMP-1 was correlated with its plasma level (r = 0.42 P = .02) and with ¹⁸F-FDG uptake (r = 0.38 P = .05). We did not find any correlation between circulating MMPs and in vivo carotid plaque metabolism assessed by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET. After a median follow-up of 1077 days, 4 cerebrovascular, 7 cardiovascular and 11 peripheral vascular events requiring hospitalization were registered. Circulating MMP-7 was capable of predicting events over and above the traditional risk factors (HR = 1.15 P = .006). When the model was associated with the variables of interest, the risk predicted by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating MMP-7 may represent a novel marker for recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with moderate to severe carotid stenosis. MMP-7 may reflect the atherosclerotic burden but not plaque inflammation in this specific vascular territory.

Eicosapentaenoic-to-Arachidonic Acid Ratio Predicts Mortality and Recurrent Vascular Events in Ischemic Stroke Patients

Aims: The ratio of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to arachidonic acid (AA) is related to major adverse events and death in cardiovascular diseases. The association between long-term prognosis of ischemic stroke and EPA/AA ratio has not been clarified.

Methods: Acute ischemic stroke patients who had undergone blood examinations for polyunsaturated fatty acids were enrolled. Major cardiovascular events, including recurrence of ischemic stroke, occurrence of cardiovascular and peripheral artery diseases and hemorrhagic stroke, and death, were analyzed, retrospectively. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to explore factors, including clinical characteristics, laboratory data including EPA/AA ratio, and treatments associated with major cardiovascular events and death.

Results: A total of 269 patients (mean age, 70 ± 13 years; 179 men) were enrolled. During follow-up (mean, 2.3 ± 1.0 years), 64 patients exhibited major cardiovascular events and death (annualized rate, 10.5% per person-year). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that EPA/AA ratio (hazard ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.07–0.99; p = 0.048) and statin therapy (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.25–0.73; p = 0.002) correlated inversely with major cardiovascular events and death. In the Kaplan–Meier analysis, cumulative event-free rates were significantly lower among patients with EPA/AA ratio < 0.33 and patients without statin therapy (p = 0.006).

Conclusions: Low EPA/AA ratio at baseline and treatment without statins could predict mortality, recurrent ischemic stroke, cardiovascular and peripheral artery diseases, and hemorrhagic stroke among patients with acute ischemic stroke. The combination of baseline EPA/AA ratio and statin therapy could be critical in predicting the long-term prognosis of ischemic stroke patients.

IL-1α and IL-6 predict vascular events or death in patients with cerebral small vessel disease-Data from the SHEF-CSVD study

PURPOSE

The natural clinical course of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) was not thoroughly described. The aim of this single center cohort study was to establish biochemical predictors of vascular events and death in CSVD patients during a 24-month follow-up.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 130 functionally independent patients with marked MRI features of CSVD and recent lacunar stroke (n = 52,LS), vascular Parkinsonism (n = 28,VaP) or dementia (n = 50,VaD) were prospectively recruited. Serum markers of endothelial dysfunction, inflammation and hemostasis were determined at baseline. The primary outcome was defined as occurrence of death or any vascular events during the observation.

RESULTS

The mean age was 72 ± 8.1 years, and 37.6% of the patients were women. The mean follow-up time was 22.3 ± 4.3 months, and 84.6% of patients had extensive white matter lesions on baseline MRI. The overall mortality rate was 6.9%, and vascular events or death occurred in 27% of the patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curves revealed no significant differences between CSVD groups (log rank p = 0.49). Cox regression analysis revealed that IL-1α (HR 1.4; 95%CI 1.09-1.8), IL-6 (1.4;1.1-2.2), hs-CRP (1.1;1.06-1.9), homocysteine (1.4;1.1-1.8), fibrinogen (1.4;1.05-2), and d-dimer (2.7;1.6-4.5) were significantly associated with the primary outcome. IL-1α (1.3;1.07-1.8), IL-6 (1.4;1.02-2.2), d-dimer (2.8;1.6-5) and homocysteine (1.4;1.1-1.8) remained significant after adjusting for age, sex and CSVD radiological markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated the important prognostic role of various circulation markers of inflammation in individuals with different clinical signs and radiological markers of CSVD. The strongest association occurred between IL-1α, IL-6 and recurrent stroke, other vascular events and death.

Anti-inflammatory approaches to ischaemic stroke prevention

Stroke is a major cause of neurological morbidity and mortality. Atherosclerosis is a major contributor to first and recurrent stroke. A growing evidence base indicates that inflammation is a key process in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, leading to thromboembolic events. In this review, we summarise the evidence linking inflammation to stroke risk and discuss clinical trials addressing the 'inflammation hypothesis' in coronary disease and stroke. Trial registration number CONVINCE trial ClinicalTrials.gov number; NCT 02898610; Pre-results.

Prolonged Corrected QT Interval as a Predictor of Clinical Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate changes of corrected QT (QTc) interval during acute ischemic stroke and its correlation with high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), neurological outcome, and 1-year mortality.

METHODS

We registered electrocardiogram in 69 patients immediately after admission to the intensive care unit and then after 24 and 48 hours. Computed tomography was performed on admission to determine brain infarct size and localization. Neurological outcome was assessed by modified Rankin scale (mRS) at discharge.

RESULTS

Forty-five (65.2%) patients had prolonged QTc at baseline; only 18 (26.1%) patients had prolonged QTc after 48 hours. Baseline QTc was not associated with neurological outcome (P = .27). However, prolonged QTc after 48 hours was associated with worse mRS at discharge (4.5 [4.0-6.0] versus 2.0 [1.0-3.0]; P < .0001). Patients who deceased during hospitalization (n = 7 [10.1%]) as compared with survivors had more frequently prolonged QTc after 48 hours (38.9 versus 0%; P < .0001), higher level of hsTnI (48.4 [36.1-75.0] versus 8.6 [3.4-26.5]; P = .003), and BNP (334 [224-866] versus 109 [30-190]; P = .014). In univariate analysis, 1-year mortality was associated with prolonged QTc after 48 hours, hsTnI, and BNP. In multivariate analysis, only BNP remained to be associated with 1-year mortality (odds ratio 3.41, 95% confidence interval 1.06-11.03).

CONCLUSIONS

QTc interval in patients with acute ischemic stroke is a dynamic parameter. Prolonged QTc after 48 hours, but not baseline QTc, correlated with neurological outcome and 1-year mortality. Patients with prolonged QTc had higher level of hsTnI.

Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke

Objective

Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Methods

Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High‐risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis.

Results

Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low‐risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high‐risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2–5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5–2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high‐risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3–9.5, P = 0.01).

Interpretation

After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Haemostatic biomarkers are associated with long-term recurrent vascular events after ischaemic stroke

Ischaemic stroke patients continue to be at risk for recurrent vascular events for many years. Predictors of long-term prognosis are needed. It was the objective of this study to investigate levels of four haemostatic proteins as long-term predictors of recurrent vascular events after ischaemic stroke. We prospectively followed 548 ischaemic stroke patients, 18-69 years, and registered recurrent vascular events. Plasma levels of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA), von Willebrand factor (VWF), fibrinogen and thrombin activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor activation peptide (TAFI-AP) were measured three months after index stroke. Cox regression models were used to assess associations to outcomes for single biomarkers and for a combined biomarker measure. For single biomarkers significantly associated with any of the outcomes, we performed subanalyses stratified for age, sex, diabetes and atherosclerosis. During 5,637 person-years of follow-up, we registered 74 vascular deaths, 90 recurrent strokes and 62 coronary events. Levels of t-PA, VWF and fibrinogen were significantly associated with vascular death and coronary events. After adjustment, the association between t-PA and vascular death remained (HR per 1 SD increase in plasma level 1.27, 95 % CI 1.00-1.61, p=0.047). The combined effect of t-PA, VWF and fibrinogen was associated with coronary events (adjusted HR 1.35, 1.02-1.80, p=0.04). In non-diabetic patients, an association with coronary events was seen for VWF levels (adjusted HR 2.23, 1.45-3.43, p<0.01). In conclusion, plasma levels of haemostatic factors were associated with vascular death and coronary events, but not with recurrent stroke. Our results suggest that the predictive value of biomarkers differ by specific outcome measure and subgroup of patients.

High-Sensitive C-Reactive Protein Predicts Recurrent Stroke and Poor Functional Outcome: Subanalysis of the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Minor stroke and transient ischemic attack are common disorders with high rate of subsequent disabling stroke. We aim to investigate the role of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in predicting recurrent stroke and poor functional outcome.

METHODS

In the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) trial, 3044 (59%) consecutive patients from 73 (64%) prespecified centers had hsCRP levels measured. The primary outcome was any stroke within 90 days. The secondary outcome included combined vascular events and dependence or death defined as modified Rankin Scale score of 2 to 6 at 90 days and a new vascular event during 1-year follow-up. The associations of hsCRP with recurrent stroke and functional outcome were analyzed by using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Elevated hsCRP (>3.0 mg/L) was observed in 32% of the study population. Patients with hsCRP >3 mg/L had an increased risk of recurrent stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.98; P=0.039), ischemic stroke and combined vascular events, and poor functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.32; P=0.002) compared with those with hsCRP <1 mg/L within 90-day follow-up period. High hsCRP levels also independently predicted recurrent stroke during 1-year follow-up. There was no interaction of hsCRP levels with randomized antiplatelet therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

High hsCRP levels predict recurrent stroke and poor functional outcome in acute patients with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979589.

Ability of serum C-reactive protein and white blood cell cout in predicting acute schemic stroke. A short -term follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Stroke is one of the leading causes of mortality and long-term morbidity. The aim of the present study was to determine the ability of baseline serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC) values in predicting the outcome of acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

This study consisted of patients with first AIS referred to Poursina Hospital, Rasht, Iran. Severity of stroke was determined according to the National Institute of Health (NIH) Stroke Scale at the time of admission. Serum CRP levels and WBC count were measured at the time of admission. All patients were followed-up for 90 days after discharge and the severity of stroke was assessed using modified Rankin Scale. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used for calculating the most appropriate cutoff point of CRP and WBC count for differentiating patients with and without poor outcome at the end of the study period.

RESULTS

A total of 53 out of 102 patients (52%) had poor outcome. The most appropriate cutoff value for CRP in differentiating patients with and without poor outcome was 8.5mg/l (sensitivity: 73.1%, specificity: 69.4%) and for WBC the difference did not reach to a significant level. The cutoff points of CRP > 10.5 mg/ml yielded a predictive ability at sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 63.8% whereas predictive ability of WBC for mortality was at a borderline level.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that high levels of serum CRP in AIS at the time of admission is associated with poor prognosis. However, this study found no ability for WBC in predicting AIS outcome.

Copeptin and Long-Term Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events After Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Copeptin, the c-terminal portion of provasopressin, is a useful prognostic marker in patients after myocardial infarction and heart failure. More recently, high levels of copeptin have also been associated with worse functional outcome and increased mortality within the first year after ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). However, to date, there are no published data on whether copeptin predicts long-term risk of vascular events after TIA and stroke.

METHODS

We measured copeptin levels in consecutive patients with TIA or ischemic stroke in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) recruited from 2002 to 2007 and followed up to 2014. Associations with risk of recurrent vascular events were determined by Cox-regression.

RESULTS

During ≈6000 patient-years in 1076 patients, there were 357 recurrent vascular events, including 174 ischemic strokes. After adjustment for age, sex, and risk factors, copeptin was predictive of recurrent vascular events (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.64; P=0.0001), vascular death (1.85; 1.60-2.14; P<0.0001), all-cause death (1.75; 1.58-1.93; P<0.0001), and recurrent ischemic stroke (1.22; 1.04-1.44; P=0.017); and improved model-discrimination significantly: net reclassification improvement for recurrent vascular events (32%; P<0.0001), vascular death (55%; P<0.0001), death (66%; P<0.0001), and recurrent stroke (16%; P=0.044). The predictive value of copeptin was largest in patients with cardioembolic index events (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-2.20 versus 1.31, 1.14-1.50 in noncardioembolic stroke; P=0.0025). In patients with cardioembolic stroke, high copeptin levels were associated with a 4-fold increased risk of vascular events within the first year of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-7.70).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with TIA and ischemic stroke, copeptin predicted recurrent vascular events and death, particularly after cardioembolic TIA/stroke. Further validation is required, in particular, in studies using more extensive cardiac evaluation.

Soluble CD40L Is a Useful Marker to Predict Future Strokes in Patients With Minor Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack

Background and Purpose—

Elevated soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) was shown to be related to cardiovascular events, but the role of sCD40L in predicting recurrent stroke remains unclear.

Methods—

Baseline sCD40L levels were measured in 3044 consecutive patients with acute minor stroke and transient ischemic attack, who had previously been enrolled in the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) trial. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to assess the association of sCD40L with recurrent stroke.

Results—

Patients in the top tertile of sCD40L levels had increased risk of recurrent stroke comparing with those in the bottom tertile, after adjusted for conventional confounding factors (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–2.00; P =0.008). The patients with elevated levels of both sCD40L and high-sensitive C-reactive protein also had increased risk of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.23–2.68; P =0.003).

Conclusions—

Elevated sCD40L levels independently predict recurrent stroke in patients with minor stroke and transient ischemic attack.

Clinical Trial Registration—

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00979589.

Biomarkers and mortality after transient ischemic attack and minor ischemic stroke: population-based study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Premature death after transient ischemic attack or stroke is more often because of heart disease or cancer than stroke. Previous studies found blood biomarkers not usefully predictive of nonfatal stroke but possibly of all-cause death. This association might be explained by potentially treatable occult cardiac disease or cancer. We therefore aimed to validate the association of a panel of biomarkers with all-cause death, particularly cardiac death and cancer death, despite the absence of associations with risk of nonfatal vascular events.

METHODS

Fifteen biomarkers were measured in 929 consecutive patients in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study), recruited from 2002 and followed up to 2013. Associations were determined by Cox regression. Model discrimination was assessed by c-statistic and the integrated discrimination improvement.

RESULTS

During 5560 patient-years of follow-up, none of the biomarkers predicted risk of nonfatal vascular events. However, soluble tumor necrosis factor α receptor-1, von Willebrand factor, heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were independently predictive of all-cause death (n=361; adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 95% confidence interval: heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein: 1.31, 1.12-1.56, P=0.002; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: 1.34, 1.11-1.62, P=0.002; soluble tumor necrosis factor α receptor-1: 1.45, 1.26-1.66, P=0.02; von Willebrand factor: 1.19, 1.04-1.36, P=0.01). The independent contribution of the four biomarkers taken together added prognostic information and improved model discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement=0.028, P=0.0001). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was most predictive of vascular death (adjusted hazard ratio=1.80, 95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.41, P<0.0001), whereas heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein predicted cancer deaths (1.64, 1.26-2.12, P=0.0002). Associations were strongest in patients without known prior cardiac disease or cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Several biomarkers predicted death of any cause after transient ischemic attack and minor stroke. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein might improve patient selection for additional screening for occult cardiac disease or cancer, respectively. However, our results require validation in future studies.