Heritability of Caries Scores, Trajectories, and Disease Subtypes

Caries trajectories from childhood to adolescence: Analysis of data from a nationwide school dental service

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to assess patterns of longitudinal changes in caries status among school-going children in Singapore.

METHODS

Dental records for a single cohort of students who received dental examinations in six standard examination years between 2009 and 2017 were analysed (n = 24 699). Group-based trajectory modelling with a zero-inflated Poisson distribution was carried out to determine dental caries trajectories in the permanent dentition. Associations between sociodemographic factors and trajectory group membership were assessed using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

The predicted population distribution across the four caries trajectory groups identified was 65.0% ('none'), 16.8% ('low'), 14.8% ('medium') and 3.4% ('high'). The 'none' trajectory group had a decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) score of 0 throughout the 8 years. Higher baseline DMFT counts and nonlinear increases in DMFT scores were noted for the 'low', 'medium' and 'high' trajectory groups. The correlation coefficient between DMFT counts in years 6 and 8 was 0.91, as compared to 0.77 between baseline and year 1. Factors associated with the 'high' caries trajectory include lower socio-economic status, female gender, Chinese race (compared to the Indian race), enrolment in primary schools in the Eastern and Western regions of Singapore, and enrolment in public secondary schools.

CONCLUSIONS

Under a nationwide school dental service, four trajectory patterns of caries counts in the permanent dentition were identified over 8 years. Among students in the 'low', 'medium' and 'high' trajectory groups, greater caries increment was noted during the transition from primary to secondary school. The correlation between DMFT counts in successive examinations was stronger in older than younger ages.

A Data-Driven Approach Identifies Subtypes of Caries From Dental Charting

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to: (i) assess the accuracy of dental data for adults obtained from the Swedish Quality Register on Caries and Periodontitis (SKaPa); (ii) explore whether Latent Class Analysis (LCA) can identify groups of people based on caries data; and (iii) characterise the dental, medical and behavioural characteristics of people in the LCA-derived classes.

METHODS

Caries data from the SKaPa register were compared with clinical data collected by five experienced dentists in a nested subgroup of the Malmö Offspring Study (MOS), namely the Malmö Offspring Dental Study (MODS) (n = 724) for validation. Dental data from SKaPa were then used to classify 61 984 adult participants of the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) into five classes using LCA and DMFS-based quintile ranking, respectively. Dental status (including caries progression over 5 years), medical, anthropometric and behavioural characteristics were compared between the groups. Analyses were replicated in 2767 adults in the MOS.

RESULTS

DMFS-scores and number of teeth recorded within -2 to +2 years showed excellent agreement between the SKaPa and reference data with intra-class correlations > 0.90. The five LCA classes differed in mean DMFS from 10.0 to 94.4. There were strong associations between LCA class and health, and health and behavioural measures respectively, including some associations that were not detected using DMFS-ranked quintile groups. LCA class was associated with incremental change in DMFS, DFS, and number of teeth. The results in the MOS cohort were consistent with the results in the VIP cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Dental data for adults from the SKaPa registry were considered accurate within 2 years of recording. The LCA approach can classify participants into caries subtypes based on dental charting. These groups differ in health and behavioural characteristics and future caries increment. The LCA approach may capture some information that is missing from DMFS-ranked quintile groups, but is also heavily influenced by total DMFS, meaning that applying LCA in cumulative, highly age-determined diseases, such as caries, is a challenge.

A Polygenic Score Predicts Caries Experience in Elderly Swedish Adults

Caries is a partially heritable disease, raising the possibility that a polygenic score (PS, a summary of an individual's genetic propensity for disease) might be a useful tool for risk assessment. To date, PS for some diseases have shown clinical utility, although no PS for caries has been evaluated. The objective of the study was to test whether a PS for caries is associated with disease experience or increment in a cohort of Swedish adults. A genome-wide PS for caries was trained using the results of a published genome-wide association meta-analysis and constructed in an independent cohort of 15,460 Swedish adults. Electronic dental records from the Swedish Quality Registry for Caries and Periodontitis (SKaPa) were used to compute the decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces (DMFS) index and the number of remaining teeth. The performance of the PS was evaluated by testing the association between the PS and DMFS at a single dental examination, as well as between the PS and the rate of change in DMFS. Participants in the highest and lowest deciles of PS had a mean DMFS of 63.5 and 46.3, respectively. A regression analysis confirmed this association where a 1 standard deviation increase in PS was associated with approximately 4-unit higher DMFS (P < 2 × 10-16). Participants with the highest decile of PS also had greater change in DMFS during follow-up. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis, which adjusted for age, age squared, sex, and the first 20 genetic principal components. Mediation analysis suggested that tooth loss was a strong mediating factor in the association between PS and DMFS but also supported a direct genetic effect on caries. In this cohort, there are clinically meaningful differences in DMFS between participants with high and low PS for caries. The results highlight the potential role of genomic data in improving caries risk assessment.

Multiomics analysis reveals the genetic and metabolic characteristics associated with the low prevalence of dental caries

Background

Despite poor oral hygiene, the Baiku Yao (BKY) ethnic group in China presents a low prevalence of dental caries, which may be related to genetic susceptibility. Due to strict intra-ethnic marriage rule, this ethnic has an advantage in studying the interaction between genetic factors and other regulatory factors related to dental caries.

Methods

Peripheral blood from a caries-free adult male was used for whole genome sequencing, and the BKY assembled genome was compared to the Han Chinese genome. Oral saliva samples were collected from 51 subjects for metabolomic and metagenomic analysis. Multiomics data were integrated for combined analysis using bioinformatics approaches.

Results

Comparative genomic analysis revealed the presence of structural variations in several genes associated with dental caries. Metabolomic and metagenomic sequencing demonstrated the caries-free group had significantly higher concentration of antimicrobials and higher abundance of core oral health-related microbiota. The functional analysis indicated that cationic antimicrobial peptide resistance and the lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis pathway were enriched in the caries-free group.

Conclusions

Our study provided new insights into the specific regulatory mechanisms that contribute to the low prevalence of dental caries in the specific population and may provide new evidence for the genetic diagnosis and control of dental caries.

Subtypes of early childhood caries predict future caries experience

OBJECTIVES

To test whether postulated subtypes of early childhood caries (ECC) are predictive of subsequent caries experience in a population-based cohort of Swedish children.

METHODS

The study included children aged between 3 and 5 years at study entry with dental records available for at least 5 years of follow-up. Dental record data were retrieved from the Swedish Quality Registry for Caries and Periodontal disease (SKaPa) for the initial and follow-up visits. Participants who had ECC at study entry were assigned to one of five ECC subtypes (termed classes 1-5) using latent class modelling of tooth surface-level caries experience. Subsequent experience of caries was assessed using the decayed, missing and filled surfaces indices (dmfs/DMFS) at follow-up visits, and compared between ECC subtypes using logistic and negative binomial regression modelling.

RESULTS

The study included 128 355 children who had 3 or more dental visits spanning at least 5 years post-baseline. Of these children, 31 919 had caries at the initial visit. Baseline ECC subtype was associated with differences in subsequent disease experience. As an example, 83% of children who had a severe form of ECC at age 5 went on to have caries in the permanent dentition by the end of the study, compared to 51% of children who were caries-free at age 5 (adjusted odds ratio of 4.9 for new disease at their third follow-up).

CONCLUSIONS

ECC subtypes assigned at a baseline visit are associated with differences in subsequent caries experience in both primary and permanent teeth. This suggests that the development and future validation of an ECC classification can be used in addition to current prediction tools to help identify children at high risk of developing new caries lesions throughout childhood and adolescence.

Microbial Relationship of Carious Deciduous Molars and Adjacent First Permanent Molars

(1) Epidemiological studies have shown that deciduous molar caries are related to and more severe than permanent molar caries. This study aimed to investigate whether caries subtypes in deciduous molars were associated with caries in first permanent molars and to explore taxonomic and functional profiles of the microbiota involved in different subtypes. (2) 42 mixed-dentition children were recruited and were divided into DMC (carious deciduous molars but caries-free first permanent molars; n = 14), C (carious deciduous and first permanent molars; n = 13), and control (n = 15) groups. Metagenomic sequencing was performed for supragingival plaque samples obtained separately from deciduous and first permanent molars. (3) The microbiota of deciduous molars in the DMC and C groups differed not only in species-based beta diversity but also in compositional and functional profiles. In the C group-like subtype, 14 caries-related species and potential pathways were identified that could be responsible for the caries relationship between the deciduous and permanent molars. In the DMC group-like subtype, the overall functional structure, the levels of Leptotrichia wadei, Streptococcus anginosus, and Stomatobaculum longum and KOs in sugar transporters and fermentation, quorum sensing, and TCA cycle in their first permanent molars surprisingly resembled those of the C group rather than the control group. This suggested that these clinically sound first permanent molars were at a greater risk for caries. (4) Classification of deciduous molar caries according to the microbiota could serve as a caries risk predictor for adjacent first permanent molars.

Bacterial Community Modifies Host Genetics Effect on Early Childhood Caries

By age 5, approximately one-fifth of children have early childhood caries (ECC). Both the oral microbiome and host genetics are thought to influence susceptibility. Whether the oral microbiome modifies genetic susceptibility to ECC has not been tested. We test whether the salivary bacteriome modifies the association of a polygenic score (PGS, a score derived from genomic data that summarizes genetic susceptibility to disease) for primary tooth decay on ECC in the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia 2 longitudinal birth cohort. Children were genotyped using the Illumina Multi-Ethnic Genotyping Array and underwent annual dental examinations. We constructed a PGS for primary tooth decay using weights from an independent, genome-wide association meta-analysis. Using Poisson regression, we tested for associations between the PGS (high versus low) and ECC incidence, adjusting for demographic characteristics (n = 783). An incidence-density sampled subset of the cohort (n = 138) had salivary bacteriome data at 24 mo of age. We tested for effect modification of the PGS on ECC case status by salivary bacterial community state type (CST). By 60 mo, 20.69% of children had ECC. High PGS was not associated with an increased rate of ECC (incidence rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.42). However, having a cariogenic salivary bacterial CST at 24 mo was associated with ECC (odds ratio [OR], 7.48; 95% CI, 3.06-18.26), which was robust to PGS adjustment. An interaction existed between the salivary bacterial CST and the PGS on the multiplicative scale (P = 0.04). The PGS was associated with ECC (OR, 4.83; 95% CI, 1.29-18.17) only among individuals with a noncariogenic salivary bacterial CST (n = 70). Genetic causes of caries may be harder to detect when not accounting for cariogenic oral microbiomes. As certain salivary bacterial CSTs increased ECC risk across genetic risk strata, preventing colonization of cariogenic microbiomes would be universally beneficial.

Is there an association between dental caries and genetics? Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies with twins

OBJECTIVE

This review aimed to assess the agreement of dental caries experience between monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins.

DATA RESOURCES

This systematic review was performed by reviewers in the databases Embase, MEDLINE-PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and manual searches and gray literature Google Scholar® and Opengray. Observational studies that evaluated dental caries in twins were included. The risk of bias was analyzed using the Joanna Briggs checklist. Meta-analyses were performed to assess the pooled Odds Ratio to estimate the agreement values of dental caries experience and DMF index between pairs of twins (p < 0.05). To assess the certainty of evidence, the GRADE scale was used.

STUDY SELECTION

2533 studies were identified, of which 19 were included in the qualitative analysis, six in the quantitative synthesis, with two meta-analyses being carried out. Association between genetics and the development of the disease was observed in most studies. In the risk of bias analysis, 47.4% had moderate risk. Higher agreement of dental caries experience was observed in MZ twins than DZ in both dentitions (OR: 5.94; 95% CI: 2.00-17.57). However, there was no difference between the MZ and DZ twin groups in the analysis comparing DMF index agreement (OR: 2.86; 95%CI: 0.25-32.79). The certainty of evidence was considered low and very low for all studies included in meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

With very low certainty of the evidence, the genetic factor seems to influence the agreement of the caries experience.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Understanding the genetic influence on the disease has the potential to contribute to the development of studies that may use biotechnologies for prevention and treatment as well as guide future research involving gene therapies aiming to prevent the occurrence of dental caries.

Genetic Preference for Sweet Taste in Mothers Associates with Mother-Child Preference and Intake

Taste perception is a well-documented driving force in food selection, with variations in, e.g., taste receptor encoding and glucose transporter genes conferring differences in taste sensitivity and food intake. We explored the impact of maternal innate driving forces on sweet taste preference and intake and assessed whether their children differed in their intake of sweet foods or traits related to sweet intake. A total of 133 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes reported to associate with eating preferences were sequenced from saliva-DNA from 187 mother-and-child pairs. Preference and intake of sweet-, bitter-, sour-, and umami-tasting foods were estimated from questionnaires. A total of 32 SNP variants associated with a preference for sweet taste or intake at a p-value < 0.05 in additive, dominant major, or dominant minor allele models, with two passing corrections for multiple testing (q < 0.05). These were rs7513755 in the TAS1R2 gene and rs34162196 in the OR10G3 gene. Having the T allele of rs34162196 was associated with higher sweet intake in mothers and their children, along with a higher BMI in mothers. Having the G allele of rs7513755 was associated with a higher preference for sweets in the mothers. The rs34162196 might be a candidate for a genetic score for sweet intake to complement self-reported intakes.

Bacterial community modifies host genetics effect on early childhood caries

Background

By age five approximately one-fifth of children have early childhood caries (ECC). Both the oral microbiome and host genetics are thought to influence susceptibility. Whether the oral microbiome modifies genetic susceptibility to ECC has not been tested. We test whether the salivary bacteriome modifies the association of a polygenic score (PGS, a score derived from genomic data that summarizes genetic susceptibility to disease) for primary tooth decay on ECC in the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia 2 longitudinal birth cohort.

Methods

Children were genotyped using the Illumina Multi-Ethnic Genotyping Array and underwent annual dental examinations. We constructed a PGS for primary tooth decay using weights from an independent, genome-wide association meta-analysis. Using Poisson regression, we tested for associations between the PGS (high versus low) and ECC incidence, adjusting for demographic characteristics (n=783). An incidence-density sampled subset of the cohort (n=138) had salivary bacteriome data at 24- months of age. We tested for effect modification of the PGS on ECC case status by salivary bacterial community state type (CST).

Results

By 60-months, 20.69% of children had ECC. High PGS was not associated with an increased rate of ECC (incidence-rate ratio:1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.42)). However, having a cariogenic salivary bacterial CST at 24-months was associated with ECC (odds ratio (OR): 7.48 (95%CI: 3.06, 18.26)), which was robust to PGS adjustment. An interaction existed between the salivary bacterial CST and the PGS on the multiplicative scale (P= 0.04). The PGS was associated with ECC (OR: 4.83 (95% CI: 1.29, 18.17)) only among individuals with a noncariogenic salivary bacterial CST (n=70).

Conclusions

Genetic causes of caries may be harder to detect when not accounting for cariogenic oral microbiomes. As certain salivary bacterial CSTs increased ECC-risk across genetic-risk strata, preventing colonization of cariogenic microbiomes would be universally beneficial.

Phenotype Harmonization in the GLIDE2 Oral Health Genomics Consortium

Genetic risk factors play important roles in the etiology of oral, dental, and craniofacial diseases. Identifying the relevant risk loci and understanding their molecular biology could highlight new prevention and management avenues. Our current understanding of oral health genomics suggests that dental caries and periodontitis are polygenic diseases, and very large sample sizes and informative phenotypic measures are required to discover signals and adequately map associations across the human genome. In this article, we introduce the second wave of the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints consortium (GLIDE2) and discuss relevant data analytics challenges, opportunities, and applications. In this phase, the consortium comprises a diverse, multiethnic sample of over 700,000 participants from 21 studies contributing clinical data on dental caries experience and periodontitis. We outline the methodological challenges of combining data from heterogeneous populations, as well as the data reduction problem in resolving detailed clinical examination records into tractable phenotypes, and describe a strategy that addresses this. Specifically, we propose a 3-tiered phenotyping approach aimed at leveraging both the large sample size in the consortium and the detailed clinical information available in some studies, wherein binary, severity-encompassing, and "precision," data-driven clinical traits are employed. As an illustration of the use of data-driven traits across multiple cohorts, we present an application of dental caries experience data harmonization in 8 participating studies (N = 55,143) using previously developed permanent dentition tooth surface-level dental caries pattern traits. We demonstrate that these clinical patterns are transferable across multiple cohorts, have similar relative contributions within each study, and thus are prime targets for genetic interrogation in the expanded and diverse multiethnic sample of GLIDE2. We anticipate that results from GLIDE2 will decisively advance the knowledge base of mechanisms at play in oral, dental, and craniofacial health and disease and further catalyze international collaboration and data and resource sharing in genomics research.

Expert consensus on early childhood caries management

Early childhood caries (ECC) is a significant chronic disease of childhood and a rising public health burden worldwide. ECC may cause a higher risk of new caries lesions in both primary and permanent dentition, affecting lifelong oral health. The occurrence of ECC has been closely related to the core microbiome change in the oral cavity, which may be influenced by diet habits, oral health management, fluoride use, and dental manipulations. So, it is essential to improve parental oral health and awareness of health care, to establish a dental home at the early stage of childhood, and make an individualized caries management plan. Dental interventions according to the minimally invasive concept should be carried out to treat dental caries. This expert consensus mainly discusses the etiology of ECC, caries-risk assessment of children, prevention and treatment plan of ECC, aiming to achieve lifelong oral health.

The global prevalence of early childhood caries: A systematic review with meta-analysis using the WHO diagnostic criteria

AIM

To estimate the global prevalence of early childhood caries using the WHO criteria.

DESIGN

Systematic review of studies published from 1960 to 2019.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Google Scholar, SciELO, and LILACS. Eligibility criteria were articles using: dmft-WHO diagnostic criteria with calibrated examiners, probability sampling, and sample sizes.

STUDY SELECTION

Two reviewers searched, screened, and extracted information from the selected articles. All pooled analyses were based on random-effects models. The protocol is available on PROSPERO 2014 registration code CRD42014009578.

RESULTS

From 472 reports, 214 used WHO criteria and 125 fit the inclusion criteria. Sixty-four reports of 67 countries (published 1992-2019) had adequate data to be summarised in the meta-analysis. They covered 29 countries/59018 children. Global random-effects pooled prevalence was (percentage[95% CI]) 48[43, 53]. The prevalence by continent was Africa: 30[19, 45]; Americas: 48 [42, 54]; Asia: 52[43, 61]; Europe: 43[24, 66]; and Oceania: 82[73, 89]. Differences across countries explain 21.2% of the observed variance.

CONCLUSIONS

Early childhood caries is a global health problem, affecting almost half of preschool children. Results are reported from 29 of 195 countries. ECC prevalence varied widely, and there was more variance attributable to between-country differences rather than continent or change over time.

The oral microbiome: Role of key organisms and complex networks in oral health and disease

States of oral health and disease reflect the compositional and functional capacities of, as well as the interspecies interactions within, the oral microbiota. The oral cavity exists as a highly dynamic microbial environment that harbors many distinct substrata and microenvironments that house diverse microbial communities. Specific to the oral cavity, the nonshedding dental surfaces facilitate the development of highly complex polymicrobial biofilm communities, characterized not only by the distinct microbes comprising them, but cumulatively by their activities. Adding to this complexity, the oral cavity faces near-constant environmental challenges, including those from host diet, salivary flow, masticatory forces, and introduction of exogenous microbes. The composition of the oral microbiome is shaped throughout life by factors including host genetics, maternal transmission, as well as environmental factors, such as dietary habits, oral hygiene practice, medications, and systemic factors. This dynamic ecosystem presents opportunities for oral microbial dysbiosis and the development of dental and periodontal diseases. The application of both in vitro and culture-independent approaches has broadened the mechanistic understandings of complex polymicrobial communities within the oral cavity, as well as the environmental, local, and systemic underpinnings that influence the dynamics of the oral microbiome. Here, we review the present knowledge and current understanding of microbial communities within the oral cavity and the influences and challenges upon this system that encourage homeostasis or provoke microbiome perturbation, and thus contribute to states of oral health or disease.

Using Oral Microbiota Data to Design a Short Sucrose Intake Index

Excessive sucrose consumption is associated with numerous health problems, including dental caries, and is considered to play a critical role in shaping the human microbiota. Here, we aimed to confirm the association between sucrose exposure and oral microbiota profile, develop a short food-based index capturing variation among sucrose consumers and validate it against oral microbiota and dental caries in a derivation cohort with 16- to 79-year-old participants (n = 427). Intake and food preferences were recorded by questionnaires and saliva microbiota by 16S rDNA sequencing. Taxonomic similarities clustered participants into five clusters, where one stood out with highest sucrose intake and predicted sugar related metabolic pathways but lowest species diversity in the microbiota. Multivariate modelling of food intake and preferences revealed foods suitable for a sucrose index. This, similarly to sucrose intake, was related to bacterial pattern and caries status. The validity of the sucrose index was replicated in the population-based Gene-Lifestyle Interactions in Dental Endpoints (GLIDE, n = 105,520 Swedish adults) cohort. This suggested that the index captured clinically relevant variation in sucrose intake and that FFQ derived information may be suitable for screening of sucrose intake in the clinic and epidemiological studies, although adjustments to local consumption habits are needed.

A New Model for Caries Risk Prediction in Teenagers Using a Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Environmental and Genetic Factors

Dental caries is a multifactorial disease that can be caused by interactions between genetic and environmental risk factors. Despite the availability of caries risk assessment tools, caries risk prediction models incorporating new factors, such as human genetic markers, have not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to construct a new model for caries risk prediction in teenagers, based on environmental and genetic factors, using a machine learning algorithm. We performed a prospective longitudinal study of 1,055 teenagers (710 teenagers for cohort 1 and 345 teenagers for cohort 2) aged 13 years, of whom 953 (633 teenagers for cohort 1 and 320 teenagers for cohort 2) were followed for 21 months. All participants completed an oral health questionnaire, an oral examination, biological (salivary and cariostate) tests, and single nucleotide polymorphism sequencing analysis. We constructed a caries risk prediction model based on these data using a random forest with an AUC of 0.78 in cohort 1 (training cohort). We further verified the discrimination and calibration abilities of this caries risk prediction model using cohort 2. The AUC of the caries risk prediction model in cohort 2 (testing cohort) was 0.73, indicating high discrimination ability. Risk stratification revealed that our caries risk prediction model could accurately identify individuals at high and very high caries risk but underestimated risks for individuals at low and very low caries risk. Thus, our caries risk prediction model has the potential for use as a powerful community-level tool to identify individuals at high caries risk.

Heritability of Oral Microbiota and Immune Responses to Oral Bacteria

Maintaining a symbiotic oral microbiota is essential for oral and dental health, and host genetic factors may affect the composition or function of the oral microbiota through a range of possible mechanisms, including immune pathways. The study included 836 Swedish twins divided into separate groups of adolescents (n = 418) and unrelated adults (n = 418). Oral microbiota composition and functions of non-enzymatically lysed oral bacteria samples were evaluated using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and functional bioinformatics tools in the adolescents. Adaptive immune responses were assessed by testing for serum IgG antibodies against a panel of common oral bacteria in adults. In the adolescents, host genetic factors were associated with both the detection and abundance of microbial species, but with considerable variation between species. Host genetic factors were associated with predicted microbiota functions, including several functions related to bacterial sucrose, fructose, and carbohydrate metabolism. In adults, genetic factors were associated with serum antibodies against oral bacteria. In conclusion, host genetic factors affect the composition of the oral microbiota at a species level, and host-governed adaptive immune responses, and also affect the concerted functions of the oral microbiota as a whole. This may help explain why some people are genetically predisposed to the major dental diseases of caries and periodontitis.

Improving Caries Risk Prediction Modeling: A Call for Action

Dentistry has entered an era of personalized/precision care in which targeting care to groups, individuals, or even tooth surfaces based on their caries risk has become a reality to address the skewed distribution of the disease. The best approach to determine a patient's prognosis relies on the development of caries risk prediction models (CRPMs). A desirable model should be derived and validated to appropriately discriminate between patients who will develop disease from those who will not, and it should provide an accurate estimation of the patient's absolute risk (i.e., calibration). However, evidence suggests there is a need to improve the methodological standards and increase consistency in the way CRPMs are developed and evaluated. In fact, although numerous caries risk assessment tools are available, most are not routinely used in practice or used to influence treatment decisions, and choice is not commonly based on high-quality evidence. Research will propose models that will become more complex, incorporating new factors with high prognostic value (e.g., human genetic markers, microbial biomarkers). Big data and predictive analytic methods will be part of the new approaches for the identification of promising predictors with the ability to monitor patients' risk in real time. Eventually, the implementation of validated, accurate CRPMs will have to follow a user-centered design respecting the patient-clinician dynamic, with no disruption to the clinical workflow, and needs to operate at low cost. The resulting predictive risk estimate needs to be presented to the patient in an understandable way so that it triggers behavior change and effectively informs health care decision making, to ultimately improve caries outcomes. However, research on these later aspects is largely missing and increasingly needed in dentistry.