What Is Driving the Drug Overdose Epidemic in the United States?

Risk factors for persistent fatal opioid-involved overdose clusters in Massachusetts 2011-2021: a spatial statistical analysis with socio-economic, accessibility, and prescription factors

BACKGROUND

Fatal opioid-involved overdose rates increased precipitously from 5.0 per 100,000 population to 33.5 in Massachusetts between 1999 and 2022.

METHODS

We used spatial rate smoothing techniques to identify persistent opioid overdose-involved fatality clusters at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level. Rate smoothing techniques were employed to identify locations of high fatal opioid overdose rates where population counts were low. In Massachusetts, this included areas with both sparse data and low population density. We used Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster analyses with the raw incidence rates, and the Empirical Bayes smoothed rates to identify clusters from 2011 to 2021. We also estimated Empirical Bayes LISA cluster estimates to identify clusters during the same period. We constructed measures of the socio-built environment and potentially inappropriate prescribing using principal components analysis. The resulting measures were used as covariates in Conditional Autoregressive Bayesian models that acknowledge spatial autocorrelation to predict both, if a ZCTA was part of an opioid-involved cluster for fatal overdose rates, as well as the number of times that it was part of a cluster of high incidence rates.

RESULTS

LISA clusters for smoothed data were able to identify whether a ZCTA was part of a opioid involved fatality incidence cluster earlier in the study period, when compared to LISA clusters based on raw rates. PCA helped in identifying unique socio-environmental factors, such as minoritized populations and poverty, potentially inappropriate prescribing, access to amenities, and rurality by combining socioeconomic, built environment and prescription variables that were highly correlated with each other. In all models except for those that used raw rates to estimate whether a ZCTA was part of a high fatality cluster, opioid overdose fatality clusters in Massachusetts had high percentages of Black and Hispanic residents, and households experiencing poverty. The models that were fitted on Empirical Bayes LISA identified this phenomenon earlier in the study period than the raw rate LISA. However, all the models identified minoritized populations and poverty as significant factors in predicting the persistence of a ZCTA being part of a high opioid overdose cluster during this time period.

CONCLUSION

Conducting spatially robust analyses may help inform policies to identify community-level risks for opioid-involved overdose deaths sooner than depending on raw incidence rates alone. The results can help inform policy makers and planners about locations of persistent risk.

Individual-level and neighborhood-level shifts in mortality patterns among drug poisoning deaths in a high-density Asian city: a territory-wide, case-only analysis

BACKGROUND

The shifts in individual-level and neighborhood-level patterns of drug poisoning deaths in a high-density Asian city over time have been underestimated, although they provide essential information for community-based surveillance and interventions.

METHODS

A case-only analysis with a 16-y, territory-wide, population-based registry in Hong Kong was applied to compare drug poisoning deaths from 2001 to 2010 with 2011 to 2016. Drug poisoning deaths, deaths from heroin and deaths from other opioids (codeine or morphine) were extracted (ICD codes: T36-T50, T40.1, T40.2). Binomial regressions were used to estimate the shifts in mortality patterns.

RESULTS

Among 3069 drug poisoning deaths, a significant shift in mortality patterns was found despite a decreasing mortality trend in Hong Kong. Overall, drug poisoning deaths shifted towards middle-aged/young-old, widowed/divorced, economically active, white collar and non-local born. Since 2011, more deaths from heroin were in older ages and non-local born, but less were never married and economically inactive. More deaths from other opioids were middle-aged, young-old and divorced. In particular, most decedents shifted towards young-old, especially deaths from other opioids. Compared with deaths during 2001-2010, there were 3.72- and 6.50-fold more deaths from heroin and deaths from other opioids in those aged ≥60 y since 2021 (ORs: 3.72 [2.37, 5.86], 6.50 [3.97, 10.65]), respectively. Additionally, drug poisoning deaths shifted towards areas with less neighborhood deprivation (more high-education individuals and a mix of private/public housing residents), especially deaths from other opioids.

CONCLUSION

Misuse of registered drugs (e.g. opioid pain relievers) could be a rising trend among vulnerable subpopulations in Hong Kong other than illegal drug use (heroin). Health officials should provide more advice and support on drug information. Specifically, an improved health system with education regarding the appropriate use of registered drugs for medical treatments should be provided to mid-/high-income and local-born individuals.

The association between social fragmentation and deaths attributable to alcohol, drug use, and suicide: Longitudinal evidence from a population-based sample of Canadian adults

BACKGROUND

Social fragmentation has been theorized and empirically associated with suicide in prior research. However, less is known about whether social fragmentation is associated with deaths attributed to alcohol use or drug use. This research examined the association between social fragmentation and risk for deaths attributable to alcohol use, drug use, and suicide (collectively known as deaths of despair) among Canadian adults.

METHODS

A weighted sample representing 15,324,645 Canadians within 288 census divisions between 2006 and 2019 was used. Mortality data from the Canadian Vital Statistics Database (alcoholic liver disease, drug use, and suicide) was linked with census division socioeconomic data from the 2006 Canadian census using the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts. Social fragmentation at the census division was created based on the Congdon Index. Cox-proportional hazard regression with survey weights and the sandwich estimator were used to account for clustering of individuals (level-1) nested within census divisions (level-2).

RESULTS

After adjusting for individual and census division confounders, social fragmentation was positively associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.07), suicide (HR = 1.09; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.18), drug overdose related mortality (HR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.24), and deaths of despair (HR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.16), and not significantly associated with alcohol related liver disease (HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.23).

CONCLUSION

Social fragmentation is associated with an increased hazard of deaths of despair among Canadian adults. Efforts to improve social cohesion in areas that are highly socially fragmented need to be evaluated.

Medical examiner response to the drug overdose epidemic in King County Washington: "Real-time" surveillance, data science, and applied forensic epidemiology

As the overdose epidemic overwhelmed medicolegal death investigation offices and toxicology laboratories, the King County Medical Examiner's Office responded with "real-time" fatal overdose surveillance to expedite death certification and information dissemination through assembling a team including a dedicated medicolegal death investigator, an information coordinator, and student interns. In-house testing of blood, urine, and drug evidence from scenes was performed using equipment and supplies purchased for surveillance. Collaboration with state laboratories allowed validation. Applied forensic epidemiology accelerated data dissemination. From 2010 to 2022, the epidemic claimed 5815 lives in King County; the last 4 years accounted for 47% of those deaths. After initiating the surveillance project, in-house testing was performed on blood from 2836 decedents, urine from 2807, and 4238 drug evidence items from 1775 death scenes. Time to complete death certificates decreased from weeks to months to hours to days. Overdose-specific information was distributed weekly to a network of law enforcement and public health agencies. As the surveillance project tracked the epidemic, fentanyl and methamphetamine became dominant and were associated with other indicators of social deterioration. In 2022, fentanyl was involved in 68% of 1021 overdose deaths. Homeless deaths increased sixfold; in 2022, 67% of 311 homeless deaths were due to overdose; fentanyl was involved in 49% and methamphetamine in 44%. Homicides increased 250%; in 2021, methamphetamine was positive in 35% of 149 homicides. The results are relevant to the value of rapid surveillance, its impact on standard operations, selection of cases requiring autopsy, and collaboration with other agencies in overdose prevention.

Fatal Drug Overdose Risks of Health Care Workers in the United States : A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Despite an unprecedented increase in drug overdose deaths in the United States, the risks faced by U.S. health care workers, who often have access to controlled prescription drugs, are not known.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate risks for drug overdose death among health care workers relative to non-health care workers.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Health care workers (n = 176 000) and non-health care workers (n = 1 662 000) aged 26 years or older surveyed in 2008 and followed for cause of death through 2019.

MEASUREMENTS

Age- and sex-standardized drug overdose deaths were determined for 6 health care worker groups (physicians, registered nurses, other treating or diagnosing health care workers, health technicians, health care support workers, and social or behavioral health workers) and non-health care workers. Adjusted drug overdose death hazards (and 95% CIs) were also evaluated, with adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, income, urban or rural residence, and region.

RESULTS

Approximately 0.07% of our study sample died of a drug overdose during follow-up. Among health care workers, annual standardized rates of drug overdose death per 100 000 persons ranged from 2.3 (95% CI, 0 to 4.8) for physicians to 15.5 (CI, 9.8 to 21.2) for social or behavioral health workers. Compared with those for non-health care workers, the adjusted hazards of total drug overdose death were significantly increased for social or behavioral health workers (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.55 [CI, 1.74 to 3.73]), registered nurses (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.22 [CI, 1.57 to 3.13]), and health care support workers (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60 [CI, 1.19 to 2.16]), but not for physicians (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.61 [CI, 0.19 to 1.93]), other treating or diagnosing health care workers (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.93 [CI, 0.44 to 1.95]), or health technicians (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13 [CI, 0.75 to 1.68]). Results were generally similar for opioid-related overdose deaths and unintentional overdose deaths.

LIMITATION

Unmeasured confounding, uncertain validity of cause of death, and one-time assessment of occupation.

CONCLUSION

Registered nurses, social or behavioral health workers, and health care support workers were at increased risk for drug overdose death, suggesting the need to identify and intervene on those at high risk.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

World beliefs, character strengths, and hope for the future

Research in recent years has revealed the rate of premature and avoidable deaths from suicide and drug/‌alcohol misuse is rising in the United States. These are sometimes referred to as deaths of despair based on evidence that they are concentrated in relatively poor communities with less access to social resources and low labor force participation. The pattern was first noted in middle-aged White men but seems to be gradually spreading to other ethnic groups. As a first step in establishing a psychological response to this public health issue, the present article summarizes two studies that compared psychological variables to demographics as predictors of hopefulness. A number of intriguing findings emerged. Despite concerns about American despair and conflict, U.S. residents proved the most hopeful among residents of eight countries. Low-income Americans are particularly hopeful except for low-income Whites. Positive character traits and primal beliefs about the world generally proved to be better predictors of hope than ethnicity, financial status, or their interaction. A number of relationships were found between psychological variables and community demographics. The findings as a group suggest hopefulness is driven more by psychological variables than by life circumstances. It is suggested that psychologists could play an important role in the study of this topic by implementing programs intended to enhance hopefulness in impoverished populations, and by encouraging an intentional communal focus on the importance of enhancing well-being.

Drug Overdose Mortality of Residents and Visitors to Cities

Background: The ongoing drug epidemic in the United States has shown that there are geographic differences in overdose fatalities. This article introduces a new way to study spatial differences in drug-related mortality, by distinguishing the fatalities of residents and visitors to a region. Methods: Using records of United States deaths from 2001 to 2020, this study examined fatal overdoses among residents and visitors to U.S. metropolitan areas. Results: The findings revealed that the drug fatality levels of residents and visitors differed from one another in many cities. These differences were most pronounced in larger metro areas, where the drug mortality of visitors was disproportionately high. Conclusions: Discussion focuses on implications and possible explanations for these findings, as well as their potential connection to classical conditioning of drug tolerance. More generally, comparing the fatalities of residents and visitors may provide a way to tease apart the roles of person-specific and location-specific contributors to overdose risk.

Early warnings and slow deaths: A sociology of outbreak and overdose

In this paper, we offer a sociological analysis of early warning and outbreak in the field of drug policy, focusing on opioid overdose. We trace how 'outbreak' is enacted as a rupturing event which enables rapid reflex responses of precautionary control, based largely on short-term and proximal early warning indicators. We make the case for an alternative view of early warning and outbreak. We argue that practices of detection and projection that help to materialise drug-related outbreaks are too focused on the proximal and short-term. Engaging with epidemiological and sociological work investigating epidemics of opioid overdose, we show how the short-termism and rapid reflex response of outbreak fails to appreciate the slow violent pasts of epidemics indicative of an ongoing need and care for structural and societal change. Accordingly, we gather together ideas of 'slow emergency' (Ben Anderson), 'slow death' (Lauren Berlant) and 'slow violence' (Rob Nixon), to re-assemble outbreaks in 'long view'. This locates opioid overdose in long-term attritional processes of deindustrialisation, pharmaceuticalisation, and other forms of structural violence, including the criminalisation and problematisation of people who use drugs. Outbreaks evolve in relation to their slow violent pasts. To ignore this can perpetuate harm. Attending to the social conditions that create the possibilities for outbreak invites early warning that goes 'beyond outbreak' and 'beyond epidemic' as generally configured.

Evaluation of "Real-Time" Fatal Drug Overdose Surveillance by King County Medical Examiner's Office, Seattle, Washington

ABSTRACT

To address the challenges in monitoring the continuously accelerating drug overdose epidemic, the King County Medical Examiner's Office in Seattle, Washington, instituted a "real-time" fatal drug overdose surveillance project, depending on scene investigations, autopsy findings, and in-house testing of blood, urine, and drug evidence collected from death scenes. Validation of the project's rapid death certification methodology from 2019 through 2021 was performed at the following 3 levels: blood testing, urine testing, and death certification, and for the following 4 drugs: fentanyl, opiate, methamphetamine, and cocaine. For blood testing, sensitivity ranged from 90% to 99%, and specificity ranged from 86% to 97%. For urine testing, sensitivity ranged from 91% to 92%, and specificity ranged from 87% to 97%. The positive predictive value for cocaine was poor for both blood testing (57%) and urine testing (72%). Of 1034 deaths, 807 were certified as overdose by rapid methodology, and 803 (99.5%) were confirmed by formal toxicology results. Manners of death were changed from accident to natural in 3 of 1034 cases (0.29%). Results of this study indicate that the rapid overdose surveillance methodology described in this study offers benefits to families and provides useful, timely information for responding law enforcement and public health agencies.

The Roles of Adolescent Occupational Expectations and Preparation in Adult Suicide and Drug Poisoning Deaths within a Shifting Labor Market

Research suggests that economic declines contribute to mortality risks from suicide and drug poisoning, but how the economy impacts individuals' risks of these deaths has been challenging to specify. Building on recent theoretical advances, we investigate how adolescent occupational expectations and preparation contribute to suicide and drug poisoning deaths in a shifting economy. We use High School and Beyond data linked to adult mortality records for men that were exposed to a decline in labor market share and wages in predominantly blue-collar occupations during early adulthood. We find that adolescent men who expected these occupations had increased risks of suicide and drug poisoning death as adults net of educational and occupational attainment in early adulthood. Family background and occupational preparation are risk factors for death by drug poisoning but not suicide. Our findings improve our understanding of how labor market uncertainty shapes individuals' vulnerability to suicide and drug poisoning death.

Trends of biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in the United States by income: Disparities between the richest 20% and the poorest 80%,1999-2018

INTRODUCTION

Income inequality between the richest 20% and the poorest 80% in the United States has been increasing over the past two decades. Emerging evidence indicates widening disparities between the two groups in cardiovascular disease prevalence as well. However, the mechanisms behind this trend remains unclear. This analysis examines whether a similar trend exists in the levels of biomarkers and risk factors of cardiovascular disease in the United States.

METHODS

We conducted a serial cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for participants age 20 or older between 1999 and 2018. We calculated trends in age-standardized means of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and the trend in prevalence of obesity, high SBP, and low HDL by income group.

RESULTS

This analysis included 49,764 participants. Age-standardized mean BMI increased every two years by an average of 0.15 kg/m 2 among the richest 20% and by an average of 0.21 kg/m 2 among the poorest 80%. Age-standardized mean SBP decreased every two years by an average of 0.13 mm Hg among the richest 20% and by an average of 0.10 mm Hg among the poorest 80%. Age-standardized mean HDL increased every two years by an average of 0.39 mg/dL among the richest 20% and by an average of 0.19 mg/dL among the poorest 80%. When adjusted for demographic factors and time, the richest 20% had lower mean BMI (OR = -0.67, 95% CI: -0.89, - 0.44), lower mean SBP (OR = -0.72, 95% CI: -1.24, -0.20), and higher mean HDL (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 2.46, 3.62) compared to the poorest 80.

CONCLUSION

There are increasing disparities in cardiovascular disease biomarkers by income in the US. Between 1999 and 2018, improvement in biomarkers overwhelmingly occurred among the richest 20.