Joint modeling of longitudinal data in multiple behavioral change

Early trajectories of motor skills in infant siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder

Delays in motor development are not considered a core feature of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Yet, recent studies of infant siblings of children with ASD suggest that early delays in motor skills may be associated with later delays in developmental areas considered to be core features of an ASD diagnosis. While these studies demonstrate the longitudinal association between core features and motor delays observed at single time points, there is considerable interest in studying the trajectories of motor development over the first 3 years of life. To accomplish this, we investigated early trajectories of motor development in a cohort of 499 infant siblings of children with ASD and 176 children with no family history of ASD. Data for the current study were drawn from the prospective, multi-site, Canadian Infant Sibling Study. We evaluated trajectories of fine and gross motor development over the first 3 years using group-based trajectory modeling. Our results show that membership for both fine and gross motor trajectory groups was related to expressive language skills, receptive language skills, ASD symptom severity scores, and diagnostic classification at age 3. These results provide evidence that the trajectory of a child's early motor development may have important prognostic implications in ASD.

Report Quality of Generalized Linear Mixed Models in Psychology: A Systematic Review

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) estimate fixed and random effects and are especially useful when the dependent variable is binary, ordinal, count or quantitative but not normally distributed. They are also useful when the dependent variable involves repeated measures, since GLMMs can model autocorrelation. This study aimed to determine how and how often GLMMs are used in psychology and to summarize how the information about them is presented in published articles. Our focus in this respect was mainly on frequentist models. In order to review studies applying GLMMs in psychology we searched the Web of Science for articles published over the period 2014–2018. A total of 316 empirical articles were selected for trend study from 2014 to 2018. We then conducted a systematic review of 118 GLMM analyses from 80 empirical articles indexed in Journal Citation Reports during 2018 in order to evaluate report quality. Results showed that the use of GLMMs increased over time and that 86.4% of articles were published in first- or second-quartile journals. Although GLMMs have, in recent years, been increasingly used in psychology, most of the important information about them was not stated in the majority of articles. Report quality needs to be improved in line with current recommendations for the use of GLMMs.

Are there temporal subtypes of premenstrual dysphoric disorder?: using group-based trajectory modeling to identify individual differences in symptom change

BACKGROUND

Premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) is a new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-5 diagnosis characterized by the cyclical emergence of emotional and physical symptoms in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle, with symptom remission in the follicular phase. Converging evidence highlights the possibility of distinct subtypes of PMDD with unique pathophysiologies, but temporal subgroups have yet to be explored in a systematic way.

METHODS

In the current work, we use group-based trajectory modeling to identify unique trajectory subgroups of core emotional and total PMDD symptoms across the perimenstrual frame (days -14 to +9, where day 0 is menstrual onset) in a sample of 74 individuals prospectively diagnosed with DSM-5 PMDD.

RESULTS

For the total daily symptom score, the best-fitting model was comprised of three groups: a group demonstrating moderate symptoms only in the premenstrual week (65%), a group demonstrating severe symptoms across the full 2 weeks of the luteal phase (17.5%), and a group demonstrating severe symptoms in the premenstrual week that were slow to resolve in the follicular phase (17.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

These trajectory groups are discussed in the context of the latest work on the pathophysiology of PMDD. Experimental work is needed to test for the presence of possible pathophysiologic differences in trajectory groups, and whether unique treatment approaches are needed.

Distinctive lung function trajectories from age 10 to 26 years in men and women and associated early life risk factors - a birth cohort study

Pre-bronchodilator lung function including forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory flow in 1 second (FEV1), their ratio (FEV1/FVC), and forced expiratory flow 25-75% (FEF25-75) measured at age 10, 18, and 26 years in the Isle of Wight birth cohort was analyzed for developmental patterns (trajectories). Early life risk factors before the age of 10 years were assessed for the trajectories.

METHOD

Members of the birth cohort (1989/90) were followed at age 1, 2, 4, 10, 18, and 26 years. Allergic sensitization and questionnaire data were collected. Spirometry tests were performed and evaluated according to the American Thoracic Society (ATS) criteria at 10, 18, and 26 years. To identify developmental trajectories for FVC, FEV1, FEV1/FVC, and FEF25-75 from 10 to 26 years, a finite mixture model was applied to the longitudinal lung function data, separately for males and females. Associations of early life factors with the respective lung function trajectories were assessed using log-linear and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Both high and low lung function trajectories were observed in men and women. FVC continued to grow beyond 18 years in men and women, whereas FEV1 peaked at age 18 years in female trajectories and in one male trajectory. For the FEV1/FVC ratios and FEF25-75 most trajectories appeared highest at age 18 and declined thereafter. However, the low FEV1/FVC trajectory in both sexes showed an early decline at 10 years. Lower birth weight was linked with lower lung function trajectories in males and females. Eczema in the first year of life was a risk factor for later lung function deficits in females, whereas the occurrence of asthma at 4 years of age was a risk factor for later lung function deficits in males. A positive skin prick test at age four was a risk for the low FEV1 trajectory in females and for the low FEV1/FVC trajectory in males.

CONCLUSION

Men and women showed distinctive lung function trajectories and associated risk factors. Lower lung function trajectories can be explained by not achieving maximally attainable function at age 18 years and by a function decline from 18 to 26 years.

Kidney progression project (KiPP): Protocol for a longitudinal cohort study of progression in chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology in Sri Lanka

Over the last two decades, a global epidemic of chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu) has emerged in rural, arid, agricultural, lowland areas. Endemic regions have reported 15 to 20% prevalence among residents aged 30-60 years. CKDu is a progressive and irreversible disease resulting in renal failure and death in the absence of dialysis or a kidney transplant. While much of the research has focused on identifying etiology, this project seeks to ascertain factors associated with the rapidity of kidney disease progression in one of Sri Lanka's CKDu endemic areas. A sample of 296 male and female residents aged 21 to 65 with moderate CKD, as measured by their serum creatinine level, and a clinical diagnosis of CKDu are followed using quarterly serum testing to track the rate of progression. A baseline survey administered to the entire sample addresses potential risk factors, supplemented by a short survey focusing on changes through time. Concurrently water, soil and air are tested at the local and household levels. The study is the first to foster a multi-disciplinary approach that focuses on disease progression, identifying behavioural and exposure risk factors for rapid kidney function decline, in this progressively fatal disease.

Substance Use Trajectories From Early Adolescence Through the Transition to College

OBJECTIVE

The transition to college is an important developmental period for the development of alcohol, marijuana, and hard drug (cocaine, opiates, inhalants, stimulants, hallucinogens, Ecstasy, club drugs) use. The current study explored specific changes in substance use patterns during and after the transition to college through the use of trajectory analyses.

METHOD

Participants were 526 students who reported retrospectively and prospectively on their substance use from age 13 through the junior year of college. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to estimate developmental trajectory groups for alcohol, marijuana, and hard drug use during this period.

RESULTS

Results supported a five-group model of alcohol use, a four-group model of marijuana use, and a four-group model of hard drug use. Although three of the five alcohol trajectories indicated high escalation throughout adolescence, one of these groups decreased in alcohol use dramatically during the freshman and sophomore years, a trend also found for hard drug use. Trajectories demonstrated significant differences in terms of gender, race, and impulsive personality characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that the start of college is an important developmental transition in terms of polysubstance use, and that despite the homogeneity of this undergraduate sample, there is considerable divergence in trajectories during college.

Multivariate Longitudinal Analysis with Bivariate Correlation Test

In the context of multivariate multilevel data analysis, this paper focuses on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model, including all the correlations between the random effects when the dimensional residual terms are assumed uncorrelated. Using the EM algorithm, we suggest more general expressions of the model's parameters estimators. These estimators can be used in the framework of the multivariate longitudinal data analysis as well as in the more general context of the analysis of multivariate multilevel data. By using a likelihood ratio test, we test the significance of the correlations between the random effects of two dependent variables of the model, in order to investigate whether or not it is useful to model these dependent variables jointly. Simulation studies are done to assess both the parameter recovery performance of the EM estimators and the power of the test. Using two empirical data sets which are of longitudinal multivariate type and multivariate multilevel type, respectively, the usefulness of the test is illustrated.

Interactive effects of drinking history and impulsivity on college drinking

The transition from adolescence into emerging adulthood is a critical developmental period for changes in alcohol use and drinking related problems. Prior research has identified a number of distinct developmental alcohol use trajectories, which appear to be differentially related to young adult drinking outcomes. Another correlate of alcohol use in early adulthood is impulsivity. The primary aim of this study was to examine the moderating role of impulsivity in the relation between patterns of past alcohol use and hazardous drinking during the first year of college. Participants (N=452; 49% male; mean age 18.5years; 82% Caucasian) completed self-report measures during the first year of college, including retrospective alcohol use calendars, current alcohol use and drinking problems, and personality. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify groups with similar adolescent drinking history from retrospective, self-report. Four groups were identified: abstainers/very light users, late/moderate users, early/moderate users, and steep increase/heavy users. The abstainer/very light user group reported the lowest levels of alcohol use and problematic drinking in college; the steep increase/heavy use group reported the highest levels of alcohol use and problematic drinking. As predicted, the role of personality-specifically urgency, or emotion-based rash action-was strongest among moderate use groups. These findings may be helpful in guiding targeted prevention and intervention programs for alcohol use and abuse.

Patterns of treatment utilization and methamphetamine use during first 10 years after methamphetamine initiation

The study examined joint trajectories of methamphetamine (MA) use and substance abuse treatment utilization and identified differences among pattern groups for a sample of 348 treated for MA use. Results from group-based trajectory modeling showed that treatment utilization during the first 10 years after initiation of MA use could be categorized into three distinctive patterns: about half the MA users have a pattern of low treatment utilization; one-fourth follow a quicker-to-treatment trajectory with higher probability of treatment during the first 5 years of MA use and less treatment in the next 5 years; and one-fourth have a slower-to-treatment trajectory with more treatment during the second half of the 10-year period. Four MA use patterns were identified: consistently low use, moderate, and high use, as well as a decreasing use pattern. Periods of greater likelihood of treatment participation were associated with periods of decreasing or lower frequency of MA use.