Failure of three decision rules to predict the outcome of in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation

Validating the GO-FAR score: predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes in the Middle East

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

External validations of the Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) score have been in populations where Do Not Attempt Resuscitation (DNAR) is practised. We aim to externally validate the GO-FAR score in a population without a DNAR order.

METHODS

We studied patients ≥ 18 years old who had an In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) with known outcomes at Al Ain Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019, excluding those who died in the emergency department. Studied variables included demography, location, response time, code duration, initial rhythm, primary diagnosis, admission vital signs, GO FAR score variables, discharge status, and functional outcomes as determined by the cerebral performance category score ranging from 1 (good cerebral performance) to 5 (brain death).

RESULTS

366 patients were studied; 66.7% were males. The median (IQR) age was 70 (55-81) years. Cardiac and respiratory causes were the primary diagnoses in 89 (24.6%) and 67 (18.5%), respectively. IHCA occurred in critical areas such as the intensive care unit, high dependency unit and coronary care unit in 206 (80.8%) patients. The majority, 308 (91.8%), had a non-shockable rhythm, and a return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 159 (43.4%) of the patients. Thirty-one (8.5%) patients survived to hospital discharge, and 20 (5.5%) patients had cerebral performance category scores of 1 and 2. The area under the curve of the ROC for survival to discharge with good functional outcome was 0.74 (95% CI 0.59-0.88). The best cut-off point for predicting survival with a good neurological outcome was a GO-FAR score of < 4, having a sensitivity of 0.81, a specificity of 0.7, a positive likelihood ratio of 2.7 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.27.

CONCLUSIONS

A GO-FAR score of less than 4 predicts survival with a good neurological outcome in a healthcare system with an all-inclusive patient population with no DNAR practice.

2022 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Pediatric Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; and First Aid Task Forces

This is the sixth annual summary of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations. This summary addresses the most recently published resuscitation evidence reviewed by International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation Task Force science experts. Topics covered by systematic reviews include cardiopulmonary resuscitation during transport; approach to resuscitation after drowning; passive ventilation; minimizing pauses during cardiopulmonary resuscitation; temperature management after cardiac arrest; use of diagnostic point-of-care ultrasound during cardiac arrest; use of vasopressin and corticosteroids during cardiac arrest; coronary angiography after cardiac arrest; public-access defibrillation devices for children; pediatric early warning systems; maintaining normal temperature immediately after birth; suctioning of amniotic fluid at birth; tactile stimulation for resuscitation immediately after birth; use of continuous positive airway pressure for respiratory distress at term birth; respiratory and heart rate monitoring in the delivery room; supraglottic airway use in neonates; prearrest prediction of in-hospital cardiac arrest mortality; basic life support training for likely rescuers of high-risk populations; effect of resuscitation team training; blended learning for life support training; training and recertification for resuscitation instructors; and recovery position for maintenance of breathing and prevention of cardiac arrest. Members from 6 task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and generated consensus treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in the Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections, and priority knowledge gaps for future research are listed.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction following in-hospital cardiac arrest using pre-arrest factors: a systematic review, meta-analysis and critical appraisal

BACKGROUND

Several prediction models of survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) have been published, but no overview of model performance and external validation exists. We performed a systematic review of the available prognostic models for outcome prediction of attempted resuscitation for IHCA using pre-arrest factors to enhance clinical decision-making through improved outcome prediction.

METHODS

This systematic review followed the CHARMS and PRISMA guidelines. Medline, Embase, Web of Science were searched up to October 2021. Studies developing, updating or validating a prediction model with pre-arrest factors for any potential clinical outcome of attempted resuscitation for IHCA were included. Studies were appraised critically according to the PROBAST checklist. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to pool AUROC values of externally validated models.

RESULTS

Out of 2678 initial articles screened, 33 studies were included in this systematic review: 16 model development studies, 5 model updating studies and 12 model validation studies. The most frequently included pre-arrest factors included age, functional status, (metastatic) malignancy, heart disease, cerebrovascular events, respiratory, renal or hepatic insufficiency, hypotension and sepsis. Only six of the developed models have been independently validated in external populations. The GO-FAR score showed the best performance with a pooled AUROC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.69-0.85), versus 0.59 (95%CI 0.50-0.68) for the PAM and 0.62 (95% CI 0.49-0.74) for the PAR.

CONCLUSIONS

Several prognostic models for clinical outcome after attempted resuscitation for IHCA have been published. Most have a moderate risk of bias and have not been validated externally. The GO-FAR score showed the most acceptable performance. Future research should focus on updating existing models for use in clinical settings, specifically pre-arrest counselling. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42021269235. Registered 21 July 2021.

2022 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Pediatric Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; and First Aid Task Forces

This is the sixth annual summary of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations. This summary addresses the most recently published resuscitation evidence reviewed by International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation Task Force science experts. Topics covered by systematic reviews include cardiopulmonary resuscitation during transport; approach to resuscitation after drowning; passive ventilation; minimizing pauses during cardiopulmonary resuscitation; temperature management after cardiac arrest; use of diagnostic point-of-care ultrasound during cardiac arrest; use of vasopressin and corticosteroids during cardiac arrest; coronary angiography after cardiac arrest; public-access defibrillation devices for children; pediatric early warning systems; maintaining normal temperature immediately after birth; suctioning of amniotic fluid at birth; tactile stimulation for resuscitation immediately after birth; use of continuous positive airway pressure for respiratory distress at term birth; respiratory and heart rate monitoring in the delivery room; supraglottic airway use in neonates; prearrest prediction of in-hospital cardiac arrest mortality; basic life support training for likely rescuers of high-risk populations; effect of resuscitation team training; blended learning for life support training; training and recertification for resuscitation instructors; and recovery position for maintenance of breathing and prevention of cardiac arrest. Members from 6 task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and generated consensus treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in the Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections, and priority knowledge gaps for future research are listed.

2022 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Pediatric Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; and First Aid Task Forces

This is the sixth annual summary of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations. This summary addresses the most recently published resuscitation evidence reviewed by International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation Task Force science experts. Topics covered by systematic reviews include cardiopulmonary resuscitation during transport; approach to resuscitation after drowning; passive ventilation; minimising pauses during cardiopulmonary resuscitation; temperature management after cardiac arrest; use of diagnostic point-of-care ultrasound during cardiac arrest; use of vasopressin and corticosteroids during cardiac arrest; coronary angiography after cardiac arrest; public-access defibrillation devices for children; pediatric early warning systems; maintaining normal temperature immediately after birth; suctioning of amniotic fluid at birth; tactile stimulation for resuscitation immediately after birth; use of continuous positive airway pressure for respiratory distress at term birth; respiratory and heart rate monitoring in the delivery room; supraglottic airway use in neonates; prearrest prediction of in-hospital cardiac arrest mortality; basic life support training for likely rescuers of high-risk populations; effect of resuscitation team training; blended learning for life support training; training and recertification for resuscitation instructors; and recovery position for maintenance of breathing and prevention of cardiac arrest. Members from 6 task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and generated consensus treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in the Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections, and priority knowledge gaps for future research are listed.

Pre-arrest Prediction of Survival Following In-hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Systematic Review of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies

AIM

To evaluate the test accuracy of pre-arrest clinical decision tools for in-hospital cardiac arrest survival outcomes.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library from inception through January 2022 for randomized and non-randomized studies. We used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies framework to evaluate risk of bias, and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology to evaluate certainty of evidence. We report sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive outcome, and negative predictive outcome for prediction of survival outcomes. PROSPERO CRD42021268005.

RESULTS

We searched 2517 studies and included 23 studies using 13 different scores: 12 studies investigating 8 different scores assessing survival outcomes and 11 studies using 5 different scores to predict neurological outcomes. All were historical cohorts/ case control designs including adults only. Test accuracy for each score varied greatly. Across the 12 studies investigating 8 different scores assessing survival to hospital discharge/ 30-day survival, the negative predictive values (NPVs) for the prediction of survival varied from 55.6% to 100%. The GO-FAR score was evaluated in 7 studies with NPVs for survival with cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 ranging from 95.0% to 99.2%. Two scores assessed survival with CPC ≤2 and these were not externally validated. Across all prediction scores, certainty of evidence was rated as very low.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified very low certainty evidence across 23 studies for 13 different pre-arrest prediction scores to outcome following IHCA. No score was sufficiently reliable to support its use in clinical practice. We identified no evidence for children.

Medical futility regarding cardiopulmonary resuscitation in in-hospital cardiac arrests of adult patients: A systematic review and Meta-analysis

AIM

For some patients, survival with good neurologic function after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is highly unlikely, thus CPR would be considered medically futile. Yet, in clinical practice, there are no well-established criteria, guidelines or measures to determine futility. We aimed to investigate how medical futility for CPR in adult patients is defined, measured, and associated with do-not-resuscitate (DNR) code status as well as to evaluate the predictive value of clinical risk scores through meta-analysis.

METHODS

We searched Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO from the inception of each database up to January 22, 2021. Data were pooled using a fixed-effects model. Data collection and reporting followed the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-one studies were included in the systematic review and 11 in the meta-analysis. Medical futility defined by risk scores was associated with a significantly higher risk of in-hospital mortality (5 studies, 3102 participants with Pre-Arrest Morbidity (PAM) and Prognosis After Resuscitation (PAR) score; overall RR 3.38 [95% CI 1.92-5.97]) and poor neurologic outcome/in-hospital mortality (6 studies, 115,213 participants with Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) and Prediction of Outcome for In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (PIHCA) score; RR 6.93 [95% CI 6.43-7.47]). All showed high specificity (>90%) for identifying patients with poor outcome.

CONCLUSION

There is no international consensus and a lack of specific definitions of CPR futility in adult patients. Clinical risk scores might aid decision-making when CPR is assumed to be futile. Future studies are needed to assess their clinical value and reliability as a measure of futility regarding CPR.

Predicting in-hospital mortality after an in-hospital cardiac arrest: A multivariate analysis

Aim of the study

Most survivors of an in-hospital cardiac arrest do not leave the hospital alive, and there is a need for a more patient-centered, holistic approach to the assessment of prognosis after an arrest. We sought to identify pre-, peri-, and post-arrest variables associated with in-hospital mortality amongst survivors of an in-hospital cardiac arrest.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years of age who were resuscitated from an in-hospital arrest at our University Medical Center from January 1, 2013 to September 31, 2016. In-hospital mortality was chosen as a primary outcome and unfavorable discharge disposition (discharge disposition other than home or skilled nursing facility) as a secondary outcome.

Results

925 patients comprised the in-hospital arrest cohort with 305 patients failing to survive the arrest and a further 349 patients surviving the initial arrest but dying prior to hospital discharge, resulting in an overall survival of 29%. 620 patients with a ROSC of greater than 20 min following the in-hospital arrest were included in the final analysis. In a stepwise multivariable regression analysis, recurrent cardiac arrest, increasing age, time to ROSC, higher serum creatinine levels, and a history of cancer were predictors of in-hospital mortality. A history of hypertension was found to exert a protective effect on outcomes. In the regression model including serum lactate, increasing lactate levels were associated with lower odds of survival.

Conclusion

Amongst survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest, recurrent cardiac arrest was the strongest predictor of poor outcomes with age, time to ROSC, pre-existing malignancy, and serum creatinine levels linked with increased odds of in-hospital mortality.

Clinical decision rules for termination of resuscitation during in-hospital cardiac arrest: A systematic review of diagnostic test accuracy studies

AIM

To assess whether any clinical decision rule for patients sustaining an in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) can predict mortality or survival with poor neurological outcome.

METHODS

We searched online databases from inception through July 2020 for randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies. Two reviewers assessed studies for inclusion. We followed PRISMA guidelines for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies, used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies framework to evaluate risk of bias, and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology to evaluate certainty of evidence. We assessed predictive values for no return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), death before hospital discharge, and survival with unfavorable neurological outcome.

RESULTS

Out of 6436 studies, 92 studies were selected for full-text screening. We included 3 observational studies describing the derivation and external validation for the UN10 rule (Unwitnessed arrest; Nonshockable rhythm; 10 min of resuscitation without ROSC) amongst patients suffering from IHCA. No studies were identified for clinical implementation. Positive Predicted Values (PPV) for death before hospital discharge for the three studies were 100% (95% CI: 97.1%-100%), 98.9% (95% CI: 96.5%-99.7%), and 93.7% (95% CI: 93.3%-94.0%). One study reported a PPV for prediction of survival with unfavorable neurological outcome, 95.2% (95% CI: 94.9%-95.6%). The level of evidence was rated as very low certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified very low certainty evidence for one clinical decision rule (the UN-10 rule) that was unable to reliably predict mortality or survival with unfavorable neurological outcome for adults suffering from IHCA. We identified no evidence for children. PROSPERO CRD42020164091.

Education, Implementation, and Teams: 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations

For this 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations, the Education, Implementation, and Teams Task Force applied the population, intervention, comparator, outcome, study design, time frame format and performed 15 systematic reviews, applying the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation guidance. Furthermore, 4 scoping reviews and 7 evidence updates assessed any new evidence to determine if a change in any existing treatment recommendation was required. The topics covered included training for the treatment of opioid overdose; basic life support, including automated external defibrillator training; measuring implementation and performance in communities, and cardiac arrest centers; advanced life support training, including team and leadership training and rapid response teams; measuring cardiopulmonary resuscitation performance, feedback devices, and debriefing; and the use of social media to improve cardiopulmonary resuscitation application.

Education, Implementation, and Teams: 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations

For this 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations, the Education, Implementation, and Teams Task Force applied the population, intervention, comparator, outcome, study design, time frame format and performed 15 systematic reviews, applying the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation guidance. Furthermore, 4 scoping reviews and 7 evidence updates assessed any new evidence to determine if a change in any existing treatment recommendation was required. The topics covered included training for the treatment of opioid overdose; basic life support, including automated external defibrillator training; measuring implementation and performance in communities, and cardiac arrest centers; advanced life support training, including team and leadership training and rapid response teams; measuring cardiopulmonary resuscitation performance, feedback devices, and debriefing; and the use of social media to improve cardiopulmonary resuscitation application.

Clinical Predictive Models of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: A Survey of the Current Science and Analysis of Model Performances

Background

More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known.

Methods and Results

We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c‐statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was −1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.76).

Conclusions

Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.

Pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors associated with survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine associations between important pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors and survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to 4 February 2019. Primary, unpublished data from the United Kingdom National Cardiac Arrest Audit database.

STUDY SELECTION CRITERIA

English language studies that investigated pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors and survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

DATA EXTRACTION

PROGRESS (prognosis research strategy group) recommendations and the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist were followed. Risk of bias was assessed by using the QUIPS tool (quality in prognosis studies). The primary analysis pooled associations only if they were adjusted for relevant confounders. The GRADE approach (grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation) was used to rate certainty in the evidence.

RESULTS

The primary analysis included 23 cohort studies. Of the pre-arrest factors, male sex (odds ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.95, moderate certainty), age 60 or older (0.50, 0.40 to 0.62, low certainty), active malignancy (0.57, 0.45 to 0.71, high certainty), and history of chronic kidney disease (0.56, 0.40 to 0.78, high certainty) were associated with reduced odds of survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest. Of the intra-arrest factors, witnessed arrest (2.71, 2.17 to 3.38, high certainty), monitored arrest (2.23, 1.41 to 3.52, high certainty), arrest during daytime hours (1.41, 1.20 to 1.66, high certainty), and initial shockable rhythm (5.28, 3.78 to 7.39, high certainty) were associated with increased odds of survival. Intubation during arrest (0.54, 0.42 to 0.70, moderate certainty) and duration of resuscitation of at least 15 minutes (0.12, 0.07 to 0.19, high certainty) were associated with reduced odds of survival.

CONCLUSION

Moderate to high certainty evidence was found for associations of pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors with survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018104795.

Reexamination of the UN10 Rule to Discontinue Resuscitation During In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

IMPORTANCE

Several clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been developed to help practitioners know when to safely terminate resuscitative efforts after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). The UN10 rule, a CDR that uses 3 intra-arrest variables, has been shown to predict a poor chance of survival to discharge. However, its large-scale applicability in clinical settings remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of a parsimonious CDR in a national cohort of individuals with IHCA.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used a nationwide cohort from the American Heart Association Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation IHCA registry to derive a sample of 96 509 patients from 716 US hospitals who experienced IHCA from January 1, 2000, to January 26, 2016. Data analysis began in January 2018 and concluded in June 2018.

EXPOSURES

The UN10 rule uses 3 variables: (1) unwitnessed arrest, (2) nonshockable rhythm, and (3) no return of spontaneous circulation within 10 minutes of resuscitative efforts. The CDR indicates futility if all 3 criteria are met. This CDR was analyzed according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) reporting guideline.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge following resuscitation. Favorable neurologic status at discharge was also assessed. Overall rates of survival and survival with favorable neurologic status (cerebral performance category score, 1 or 2) were compared with predicted values by the UN10 rule using 2 × 2 contingency tables.

RESULTS

Of 96 509 patients, 55 761 (57.8%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 67.1 (15.3) years. In total, 18 713 patients (19.4%) survived to discharge, and 16 134 patients (16.7%) were discharged with a favorable neurologic status. Overall, 15 838 patients (16.4%) met all 3 criteria for futility in the UN10 rule. A total of 1005 patients (6.3%) who met the UN10 rule survived to discharge, and 754 (4.8%) survived with favorable neurologic status. The percentage of patients meeting the UN10 rule (ie, predicting futile resuscitation) who actually survived in our study cohort was substantially higher than the initial derivation cohort (0%) and single-center validation cohort (1.1%). The positive predictive value of the UN10 rule was 93.7% (95% CI, 93.3%-94.0%), which was lower than the initial derivation cohort (100%; 95% CI, 97.5%-100%) and validation cohort (98.9%; 95% CI, 96.5%-99.7%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Patients who met the UN10 rule were associated with unfavorable neurologic status and low rates of survival after IHCA. Yet their survival rates are higher than reported in the initial validation study, raising the question of whether the UN10 rule may have limited utility as a definitive measure of futility during resuscitations in real-world clinical settings.

Survival and neurological outcome in the elderly after in-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

There have been few studies of the outcome in elderly patients who have suffered in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and the association between cardiac arrest characteristics and survival.

AIM

The aim of this large observational study was to investigate the survival and neurological outcome in the elderly after IHCA, and to identify which factors were associated with survival.

METHODS

We investigated elderly IHCA patients (≥70years of age) who were registered in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry 2007-2015. For descriptive purposes, the patients were grouped according to age (70-79, 80-89, and ≥90years). Predictors of 30-day survival were identified using multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Altogether, 11,396 patients were included in the study. Thirty-day survival was 28% for patients aged 70-79 years, 20% for patients aged 80-89 years, and 14% for patients aged ≥90years. Factors associated with higher survival were: patients with an initially shockable rhythm, IHCA at an ECG-monitored location, IHCA was witnessed, IHCA during daytime (8 a.m.-8 p.m.), and an etiology of arrhythmia. A lower survival was associated with a history of heart failure, respiratory insufficiency, renal dysfunction and with an etiology of acute pulmonary oedema. Patients over 90 years of age with VF/VT as initial rhythm had a 41% survival rate. We found a trend indicating a less aggressive care with increasing age during cardiac arrest (fewer intubations, and less use of adrenalin and anti-arrhythmic drugs) but there was no association between age and delay in starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). In survivors, there was no significant association between age and a favourable neurological outcome (CPC score: 1-2) (92%, 93%, and 88% in the three age groups, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing age among the elderly is associated with a lower 30-day survival after IHCA. Less aggressive treatment and a worse risk profile might contribute to these findings. Relatively high survival rates among certain subgroups suggest that discussions about advanced directives should be individualized. Most survivors have good neurological outcome, even patients over 90 years of age.

External Validation of Two Classification and Regression Tree Models to Predict the Outcome of Inpatient Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively validate a previously developed classification and regression tree (CART) model that predicts the likelihood of a good outcome among patients undergoing inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

DESIGN

Prospective validation of a clinical decision rule.

SETTING

Skåne University Hospital in Malmo, Sweden.

PATIENTS

All adult patients (N = 287) experiencing in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation between 2007 and 2010.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients from Skåne University Hospital who underwent CPR (N = 287) were classified using the CART models to predict their likelihood of survival neurologically intact or with minimal deficits, based on a cerebral performance category score of 1. Discrimination and classification accuracy of the score in the Swedish population was compared to that in the original (derivation and internal validation) populations.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

For model 1, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was 0.77, compared with 0.76 and 0.73 in the original derivation and validation populations, respectively. Model 1 classified 71 (2.8%) of 287 patients as being at a very low risk of a good neurologic outcome compared with 157 (26.1%) of 287 patients predicted to be at an above average risk of a good neurologic outcome. Model 2 had a similar AUROCC as the original validation population of 0.71 but lower than the original derivation population. Model 2 performed similarly to Model 1 with regards to its ability to correctly classify patients as very low or higher than average likelihood of a good neurologic outcome.

CONCLUSION

Two CART models validated well in a different population, displaying similar discrimination and classification accuracy compared to the original population. Although additional validation in larger populations is desirable before widespread adoption, these results are very encouraging.

A performance improvement-based resuscitation programme reduces arrest incidence and increases survival from in-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Traditional resuscitation training models are inadequate to achieving and maintaining resuscitation competency. This analysis evaluates the effectiveness of a novel, performance improvement-based inpatient resuscitation programme.

METHODS

This was a prospective, before-and-after study conducted in an urban, university-affiliated hospital system. All inpatient adult cardiac arrest victims without an active Do Not Attempt Resuscitation order from July 2005 to June 2012 were included. The advanced resuscitation training (ART) programme was implemented in Spring 2007 and included a unique treatment algorithm constructed around the capabilities of our providers and resuscitation equipment, a training programme with flexible format and content including early recognition concepts, and a comprehensive approach to performance improvement feeding directly back into training. Our inpatient resuscitation registry and electronic patient care record were used to quantify arrest rates and survival-to-hospital discharge before and after ART programme implementation. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for age, gender, location of arrest, initial rhythm, and time of day.

RESULTS

A total of 556 cardiac arrest victims were included (182 pre- and 374 post-ART). Arrest incidence decreased from 2.7 to 1.2 per 1000 patient discharges in non-ICU inpatient units, with no change in ICU arrest rate. An increase in survival-to-hospital discharge from 21 to 45% (p < 0.01) was observed following ART programme implementation. Adjusted odds ratios for survival-to-discharge (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.4) and good neurological outcomes (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.7-5.3) reflected similar improvements. Arrest-related deaths decreased from 2.1 to 0.5 deaths per 1000 patient discharges in non-ICU areas and from 1.5 to 1.3 deaths per 1000 patient discharges in ICU areas, and overall hospital mortality decreased from 2.2% to 1.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a novel, performance improvement-based inpatient resuscitation programme was associated with a decrease in the incidence of cardiac arrest and improved clinical outcomes.

Evaluation of pre-arrest morbidity score and prognosis after resuscitation score and other clinical variables associated with in-hospital cardiac arrest in southern Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate pre-arrest morbidity score (PAM), prognosis after resuscitation score (PAR) and to identify additional clinical variables associated with survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) treated with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR).

METHODS

A retrospective observational study involving all cases of IHCA at Skåne University Hospital Malmö 2007-2010.

RESULTS

Two-hundred-eighty-seven cases of IHCA were identified (61.3% male; mean age 70 years) of whom 20.2% survived until discharge. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for death prior to discharge was 6.49 (1.50-28.19) (p=0.013) for PAM>6 and 3.88 (1.95-7.73) (p<0.001) for PAR>4. At PAM- and PAR-scores >5, specificity exceeded 90%, while sensitivity was only 20-30%. The odds ratio for in-hospital mortality was 0.38 (0.20-0.72) (p=0.003) for patients with cardiac monitoring, 9.86 (5.08-19.12) (p<0.001) for non-shockable vs shockable rhythm, 0.32 (0.15-0.69) (p=0.004) for presence of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), 0.27 (0.09-0.78) (p=0.016) for patients with independent Activities of Daily Life (ADL) and 13.86 (1.86-103.46) (p=0.010) for patients with malignancies. Heart rate (HR) on admission (per bpm) [1.024 (1.009-1.040) (p=0.002)] and sodium plasma concentration on admission (per mmoll(-1)) [0.92 (0.85-0.99) (p=0.023)] were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

PAM- and PAR-scores do not sufficiently discriminate between in-hospital death and survival after IHCA to be used as clinical tools guiding CPR decisions. We confirm that malignancy is associated with increased in-hospital mortality, and cardiac monitoring, shockable rhythm, STEMI and independent ADL, with decreased in-hospital mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that HR and plasma sodium concentration upon admission may represent new tools for risk stratification.

Using risk prediction tools in survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest

In-hospital cardiac arrests are common and associated with poor outcomes. Predicting the likelihood of favorable neurological survival following resuscitation from an in-hospital cardiac arrest could provide important information for physicians and families. In this article, we review the literature regarding predictors of survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest. Specifically, we describe the Cardiac Arrest Survival Postresuscitation In-hospital (CASPRI) score that was recently developed and validated using data from the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation registry. The CASPRI score includes 11 predictor variables: age, initial cardiac arrest rhythm, defibrillation time, baseline neurological status, duration of resuscitation, mechanical ventilation, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, sepsis, malignancy, and hypotension. The score is simple to use at the bedside, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and provides robust estimates of the probability of favorable neurological survival after an in-hospital cardiac arrest. Thus, CASPRI may be valuable in establishing expectations by physicians and families in the critical period after these high-risk events.

Prediction of survival to discharge following cardiopulmonary resuscitation using classification and regression trees

OBJECTIVES

To predict the likelihood that an inpatient who experiences cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoes cardiopulmonary resuscitation survives to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits (Cerebral Performance Category score = 1).

DESIGN

Classification and Regression Trees were used to develop branching algorithms that optimize the ability of a series of tests to correctly classify patients into two or more groups. Data from 2007 to 2008 (n = 38,092) were used to develop candidate Classification and Regression Trees models to predict the outcome of inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation episodes and data from 2009 (n = 14,435) to evaluate the accuracy of the models and judge the degree of over fitting. Both supervised and unsupervised approaches to model development were used.

SETTING

366 hospitals participating in the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation registry.

SUBJECTS

Adult inpatients experiencing an index episode of cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The five candidate models had between 8 and 21 nodes and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.718 to 0.766 in the derivation group and from 0.683 to 0.746 in the validation group. One of the supervised models had 14 nodes and classified 27.9% of patients as very unlikely to survive neurologically intact or with mild deficits (< 3%); the best unsupervised model had 11 nodes and classified 21.7% as very unlikely to survive.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated Classification and Regression Tree models that predict survival to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits following in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Models like this can assist physicians and patients who are considering do-not-resuscitate orders.

Pneumothorax During CPR Training: Case Report and Review of the CPR Literature

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation is taught widely to both lay persons and health care oworkers. It is a challenging psychomotor skill. Concerns about its safety to the rescuer have centered around the risk of infectious disease exposure. A young nursing assistant developed a minimally symptomatic pneumothorax during CPR training. This case is the first reported example of this complication for a CPR trainee or provider. The literature is reviewed for complications for CPR provider and recipient and the relevant issues regarding the current status and future direction of this intervention.

Evaluating the effectiveness of CPR for in-hospital cardiac arrest

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is one of the most commonly performed medical interventions. However, the true effectiveness of CPR remains unknown as it presents significant challenges for evaluation and research. Many resuscitation practices are driven by nonquantitative reasoning and may not be evidence based. Several studies have been published on survival after in-hospital CPR. However, the reported survival rates from one hospital to another vary significantly due to a number of reasons such as type of hospital, presence of specialized cardiac units, patient demographics, differences in inclusion criteria, outcome definitions and so on. Further research is indicated to evaluate the true effectiveness of CPR for in-hospital cardiac arrest.

APACHE II scores as predictors of cardio pulmonary resuscitation outcome: Evidence from a tertiary care institute in a low-income country

Aim:

The aim of this study was to demonstrate that APACHE II scores can be used as a predictor of the cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) outcome in hospitalized patients.

Methods:

A retrospective chart review of patients admitted, from 2002 to 2007, at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, was done for this study. Information was collected on 738 patients, constituting all adults admitted in general ward, ICU, CICU and SCU during this time, and who had under-went cardiac arrest and received cardiopulmonary resuscitation during their stay at the hospital. Patient characteristics, intra-arrest variables such as event-witnessed, initial cardiac rhythm, pre arrest need for intubation and vasoactive drugs, duration of CPR and survival details were extracted from patient records. The APACHE II score was calculated for each patient and a descriptive analysis was done for demographic and clinical features. The primary outcome of successful CPR was categorized as survival >24 h after CPR versus survival <24 h after CPR. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between the explanatory variables and successful CPR.

Results:

Patients with APACHE II scores less than 20 had 4.6 times higher odds of survival compared to patients with a score of >35 (AOR: 4.6, 95% CI: 2.4-9.0). Also, shorter duration of CPR (AOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9-4.4), evening shift (AOR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.5) and Male patients (AOR: 0.6, 95% CI: (0.4-0.9) compared to females were other significant predictors of CPR outcome.

Conclusion:

APACHE II score, along with other patient characteristics, should be considered in clinical decisions related to CPR administration.

Pre-arrest predictors of failure to survive after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Our objective was to perform a systematic review of pre-arrest predictors of the outcome of in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in adults.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for studies published since 1985 and bibliographies of previous meta-analyses. We included studies with predominantly adult patients, limited to in-hospital arrest, using an explicit definition of cardiopulmonary arrest and CPR and reporting survival to discharge by at least one pre-arrest variable. A total of 35 studies were included in the final analysis. Inclusion criteria, design elements and results were abstracted in parallel by both investigators. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus.

RESULTS

The rate of survival to discharge was 17.5%; we found a trend towards increasing survival in more recent studies. Metastatic malignancy [odds ratio (OR) 3.9] or haematologic malignancy (OR 3.9), age over 70, 75 or 80 years (OR 1.5, 2.8 and 2.7, respectively), black race (OR 2.1), altered mental status (OR 2.2), dependency for activities of daily living (range OR 3.2-7.0 depending on specific activity), impaired renal function (OR 1.9), hypotension on admission (OR 1.8) and admission for pneumonia (OR 1.7), trauma (OR 1.7) or medical non-cardiac diagnosis (OR 2.2) were significantly associated with failure to survive to discharge; cardiovascular diagnoses and co-morbidities were associated with improved survival (range OR 0.23-0.53). Elevated CPR risk scores predicted failure to survive but have not been validated consistently in different populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several pre-arrest variables associated with failure to survive to discharge. This information should be shared with patients as part of a shared decision-making process regarding the use of do not resuscitate orders.

Analysis of limited resuscitations in patients suffering in-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Although clinicians are expected to help patients make decisions about end-of-life care, there is insufficient data to help guide patient preferences. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of patients who undergo 'limited code' and compare survival to discharge with those who undergo maximum resuscitative efforts ('full code').

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of all adult in-hospital cardiac arrests (IHCA) at a tertiary care teaching hospital from January 1999 to December 2003 to compare survival in patients with limited code to survival in patients with a full code. We collected data on demographic and clinical variables known to influence survival in IHCA. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of code status with subsequent survival through the code and to hospital discharge after adjusting for potential confounding factors.

RESULTS

Of the 309 patients having IHCA, there were 17 (5.5%) patients with limited code status and 292 (94.5%) with full code status. Among full code patients, 171 (58.6%) survived the code compared to five patients (29.4%) who had a limited code (p=0.023). After adjusting for demographic variables and pre-arrest co-morbidities, patients with full code status compared to limited code status had an odds ratio for return of spontaneous circulation of 3.69 (95% CI: 1.13-14.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who opt for limited code have a significantly lower probability of survival compared to patients who choose full code. Patients who choose limited code should be informed of the likely negative outcome as compared to full resuscitation.

Treating cancer patients who are near the end of life in the emergency department

Cancer-related visits to the emergency department (ED) can be expected to increase in the next decade as the population ages. Some of the these patients and their caregivers will come to the ED without prior end-of-life care planning, and others will require modification of prior plans based on disease progression. In this article, we discuss some of these end-of-life issues related to and including those of legal documents, transmission of patient wishes, limiting factors in implementing those wishes, and the new horizon of palliative care in the ED.

In-hospital cardiac arrest: incidence, prognosis and possible measures to improve survival

DESIGN

Review.

OBJECTIVE

Medical literature on in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) was reviewed to summarise: (a) the incidence of and survival after IHCA, (b) major prognostic factors, (c) possible interventions to improve survival.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of IHCA is rarely reported in the literature. Values range between 1 and 5 events per 1,000 hospital admissions, or 0.175 events/bed annually. Reported survival to hospital discharge varies from 0% to 42%, the most common range being between 15% and 20%. Pre-arrest prognostic factors: the prognostic value of age is controversial. Among comorbidities, sepsis, cancer, renal failure and homebound lifestyle are significantly associated with poor survival. However, pre-arrest morbidity scores have not yet been prospectively validated as instruments to predict failure to survive after IHCA. Intra-arrest factors: ventricular fibrillation/ventricular tachycardia (VF/VT) as the first recorded rhythm and a shorter interval between IHCA and cardiopulmonary resuscitation or defibrillation are associated with higher survival. However, VF/VT is present in only 25-35% of IHCAs. Short-term survival is also higher in patients resuscitated with chest compression rates above 80/min. Interventions likely to improve survival include: early recognition and stabilisation of patients at risk of IHCA to enable prevention, faster and better in-hospital resuscitation and early defibrillation. Mild therapeutic hypothermia is effective as post-arrest treatment of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to VF/VT, but its benefit after IHCA and after cardiac arrest with non-VF/VT rhythms has not been clearly demonstrated.

The epidemiology of cardiac arrests in a Sydney hospital

AIM

To examine the epidemiology of cardiac arrest (CA) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and a large teaching hospital in Sydney and to identify predictors of survival.

METHODS

Data from the 1996/97 NSW inpatient statistics collection were analysed. Logistic regression was used to determine predictors of mortality from CA.

RESULTS

In 1996/97 in public hospitals, Eastern Sydney Area Health Service (AHS) (47.5), and in private hospitals of Macleay-Hastings District Health Services (DHSs), recorded the highest crude CA rates in NSW with figures of 47.5 and 21.3 per 10,000 hospital separations. Standardised CA rates were highest in Western Sydney, Illawara, Macleay-Hasting, Mid North Coast and Orana DHSs. Most CAs in hospital 'X' occurred after admission and 55.7% occurred in patients admitted with a non-cardiac principal diagnosis, mainly pneumonia. Acute myocardial infarction was the leading diagnosis (28.9%) in patients who suffered CA after admission. Only 32% of CA patients survived to discharge. Age above 65 (odds ratio (OR)=2.284, P=0.006) had the highest effect on cardiac mortality. The longer the patients were in the intensive care unit (OR=0.997, P=0.037), the more likely they were to survive.

CONCLUSION

We describe considerable variation in CA rates in NSW. The majority of hospital CAs occur at or soon after admission, and are associated with underlying non-cardiac conditions. Survival following hospital CA is low, but there may be preventable elements. Knowledge of risk factors and epidemiology of hospital CAs may help identify patients at risk of CA.

To be resuscitated or not: the concepts in decision making

The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the available scientific evidence to support decisions to withhold cardiopulmonary resuscitation in hospitals. The decision to perform resuscitation or not is a complex one that requires consideration of a number of factors, including patient preference and patient clinical status. The three fundamental questions that must be answered in making an informed decision about whether to attempt resuscitation are discussed and the evidence used to answer them is presented.

Resuscitation in the hospital: relationship of year and rhythm to outcome

OBJECTIVE

determine the frequency of initial rhythms in in-hospital resuscitation and examine its relationship to survival. Assess changes in outcome over time.

METHODS

retrospective cohort (registry) including all admissions to the Medical Center of Central Georgia in which a resuscitation was attempted between 1 January, 1987 and 31 December, 1996.

RESULTS

the registry includes 3327 admissions in which 3926 resuscitations were attempted. Only the first event is reported. There were 961 hospital survivors. Survival increased from 24.2% in 1987 to 33.4% in 1996 (chi(2)=39.0, df=1, P<0.0001). Survival was affected strongly by initial rhythm (chi(2)=420.0, df=1, P<0.0001) and decreased from 63.2% for supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) to 55.3% for ventricular tachycardia (VT), 51.0% for perfusing rhythms (PER), 34.8% for ventricular fibrillation (VF), 14.3% for pulseless electrical activity (PEA) and 10.0% for asystole (ASYS). PEA was the most frequent rhythm (1180 cases) followed by perfusing (963), asystole (580), VF (459), VT (94) and SVT (38).

DISCUSSION

the powerful effect of initial rhythm on survival has been reported in pre-hospital and in-hospital resuscitation. VF is considered the dominant rhythm and generally accounts for the most survivors. We report good outcome for each; however, VF represents only 13.8% of events and 16.7% of survivors. PEA accounts for more survivors (169) than does VF (160). Our improved outcome is partially explained by changes in rhythms, but other institutional variables need to be identified to fully explain the results. Further studies are needed to see if our findings can be sustained or replicated.

Survival after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation. A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the rates of immediate survival and survival to discharge for adult patients undergoing in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and to identify demographic and clinical variables associated with these outcomes.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The MEDLARS database of the National Library of Medicine was searched. In addition, the authors' extensive personal files and the bibliography of each identified study were searched for further studies. Two sets of inclusion criteria were used, minimal (any study of adults undergoing in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation) and strict (included only patients from general ward and intensive care units, and adequately defined cardiopulmonary arrest and resuscitation). Each study was independently reviewed and abstracted in a nonblinded fashion by two reviewers. The data abstracted were compared, and any discrepancies were resolved by consensus discussion. For the subset of studies meeting the strict criteria, the overall rate of immediate survival was 40.7% and the rate of survival to discharge was 13.4%. The following variables were associated with failure to survive to discharge: sepsis on the day prior to resuscitation (odds ratio [OR] 31.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9, 515), metastatic cancer (OR 3.9; 95% CI 1.2, 12. 6), dementia (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1, 8.8), African-American race (OR 2. 8; 95% CI 1.4, 5.6), serum creatinine level at a cutpoint of 1.5 mg/dL (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2, 3.8), cancer (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.2, 3.0), coronary artery disease (OR 0.55; 95% CI 0.4, 0.8), and location of resuscitation in the intensive care unit (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.4, 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

When talking with patients, physicians can describe the overall likelihood of surviving discharge as 1 in 8 for patients who undergo cardiopulmonary resuscitation and 1 in 3 for patients who survive cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Impact of survival probability, life expectancy, quality of life and patient preferences on do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders in a hospital. Resuscitation Committee

Consensus exists that a do-not-attempt-resuscitation order (DNAR) is appropriate if a resuscitation attempt is futile. Less agreement exists when this point is reached. We investigated the influence of three major considerations for in-hospital DNAR orders: expected survival probability after resuscitation, prospects of the patients' current condition without a cardiac arrest and the patients' autonomous decision not to want resuscitation. We calculated an expected survival probability according to two multi-morbidity prediction scores for each patient, assuming the event of cardiac arrest. The prospects of the current condition without a cardiac arrest was estimated by the patients' physician, in terms of life expectancy and quality of life (level of dependency after discharge and pain). The patients' preference was documented from the medical records. A total of 470 patients were included in the study. Fifty-eight patients (12%) had a DNAR-order, 11 of these patients (19%) wanted no resuscitation. The patients' prospects (life expectancy, dependency after discharge), and age proved to be independently associated with the presence of a DNAR order. The odds ratio (OR) for the presence of a DNAR order was 37 (CL 14-107) for an estimated life expectancy less than 3 months, 13 (CL 4-41) for a life in a nursing home and four (CL 2-12) for an age of 80 years and older. Expected survival probability after resuscitation and pain were not independently associated with a DNAR order. We conclude that resuscitation is considered futile on the basis of the patients' age and prospects without cardiac arrest and that the impact of expected survival probability on these decisions is small.