Are Disability Rates among People with Diabetes Increasing in Germany? A Decomposition Analysis of Temporal Change between 2004 and 2015

Cohort Differences in Physical Health and Disability in the United States and Europe

OBJECTIVES

Declines in mortality have historically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States, are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the United States, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts.

METHODS

Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the United States (Health and Retirement Study, n = 26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n = 14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n = 72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959).

RESULTS

Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across successive cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the United States and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in prewar cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945.

DISCUSSION

In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

Time trends in limited lung function among German middle-aged and older adults

Limited lung function represents a serious health impairment. However, studies investigating changes in limited lung function over time are rare. Thus, the current study investigates time-related changes in limited lung function and potential social inequalities. Data from the 2008 and 2017 waves of the population-based German Aging Survey were used in a repeated cross-sectional study design (N = 8778), including participants aged 40 years and older. Lung function was assessed by the peak flow test. Socio-economic indicators included educational attainment, income and occupational group. Additionally, smoking history, occupational exposure to fumes and gases, and physical exercise were used as potentially explanatory variables for the observed changes. We found that the prevalence of limited lung function decreased strongly over time on a descriptive level from 9.0 to 5.4%. In line with these results, a decreasing trend emerged (OR = 0.48) when controlling for age and gender differences. When additionally controlling for changes in socio-economic indicators and explanatory variables there were still significant decreases over time, but the decline was slightly reduced (OR = 0.57). Moreover, similar significant relative decreases over time occurred for middle-aged and older participants, female and male participants, and those belonging to the different socio-economic groups. Thus, limited lung function generally decreased over time. This decrease could partially be explained by beneficial developments in socio-economic indicators, smoking, occupational exposures, and physical exercise. Future studies might investigate how changes in medicinal treatment and prevention efforts have contributed to the observed beneficial trends in lung health.

Generational differences in physical health and disability in the United States and Europe

Objectives

Declines in mortality have typically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States (US), are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the US, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts.

Methods

Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the US (Health and Retirement Study, n=26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n=14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n=72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959).

Results

Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the US and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in pre-war cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945.

Discussion

In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

Factors Contributing to the Change in Overweight/Obesity Prevalence Among Indian Adults: A multivariate decomposition analysis of data from the National Family Health Surveys

INTRODUCTION

Concerns over the escalating burden of non-communicable diseases call for the redressal of behavioral risk factors like increased body mass index. Most studies have failed to quantify the contribution of socio-demographic characteristics in a linear trend. The present study aims to estimate the current prevalence of overweight and obesity in Indian adults and the contribution of different socio-demographic factors to the increasing prevalence.

METHODS

We carried out a secondary data analysis of two National Family Health Survey (NFHS) rounds. The final sample includes 558,122 women and 84,477 men from round 4, and 574,099 women and 74,761 men were included from round 5, using a multi-stage stratified random sampling approach. Overweight/obesity was our primary dependent variable. Weighted bivariate analysis was used to ascertain the prevalence, and the adjusted odds ratios were computed to ascertain the potential predictors. The contribution of different factors towards rising burden over two time points was estimated using multivariate decomposition analysis for non-linear response models.

RESULTS

Overall weighted prevalence of overweight and obesity in males and females per NFHS-5 was 44.02% and 41.16%, respectively, compared to 37.71% and 36.14% in NFHS-4. Decomposition analyses depict that the proportion of obesity increased by 6.37% and 5.10% points among men and women, respectively, over the two rounds. Compositional differences of participants (endowment) attributed to 16.54 and 49.90% differences, and the difference in coefficient or effect accounted for 83.46 and 50.10%, respectively, of the increase in the prevalence. The most significant factors contributing to increased prevalence were age, improving socio-economic status, smoking, unclean cooking fuel, and diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The incremental rise in such a short period, mainly attributed to the effect of socio-demographic variables, is concerning. Policy interventions should prioritize health advocacy programs and aggressively target behavioral modifications while preparing the health systems to manage the people living with obesity.

Socioeconomic inequalities in type 2 diabetes comorbidities in different population subgroups: trend analyses using German health insurance data

While socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence and management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are well established, little is known about whether inequalities exist in the prevalence and the temporal development of T2D comorbidities. Previous research points towards expansion of morbidity in T2D as depicted mainly by a rising trend of T2D comorbidities. Against this background, and using German claims data, this study aims to examine whether socioeconomic status (SES) inequalities exist in the rates and the temporal development of T2D comorbidities. Since previous research indicates varying risk levels for T2D prevalence in the population subgroups: working individuals, nonworking spouses and pensioners, the analyses are stratified by these three population subgroups. The study is done on a large population of statutory insured individuals with T2D in three time-periods between 2005 and 2017. Predicted probabilities of three comorbidity groups and the number of comorbidities were estimated using logistic and ordinal regression analyses among different income, education and occupation groups. Interaction analyses were applied to examine whether potential SES inequalities changed over time. The study showed that neither the cross-sectional existence, nor the temporal development of T2D comorbidities differed significantly among SES groups, ruling out SES inequalities in the prevalence and the temporal development of T2D comorbidities in Germany. In men and women of all examined population subgroups, predicted probabilities for less severe cardiovascular (CVD) comorbidities, other vascular diseases and the number of comorbidities per individual rose significantly over time regardless of SES, but little if any change took place for more severe CVD comorbidities. Another important finding is that the population subgroup of nonworking spouses had markedly higher predicted probabilities for most of the examined outcomes compared to working individuals. The study indicates that the expansion of morbidity in T2D in Germany does not appear to be SES-dependent, and applies equally to different population subgroups. Yet, the study highlights that nonworking spouses are a susceptible population subgroup that needs to be focused upon when planning and implementing T2D management interventions.

Trends of Antidiabetic and Cardiovascular Diseases Medication Prescriptions in Type 2 Diabetes between 2005 and 2017-A German Longitudinal Study Based on Claims Data

BACKGROUND

With an attempt to understand possible mechanisms behind the severity-dependent development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) comorbidities, this study examines the trends of antidiabetic and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) medication prescriptions in individuals with T2D.

METHODS

The study is based on claims data from a statutory health insurance provider in Lower Saxony, Germany. The period prevalence of antidiabetic and CVD medication prescriptions was examined for the periods 2005-2007, 2010-2012, and 2015-2017 in 240,241, 295,868, and 308,134 individuals with T2D, respectively. (Ordered) logistic regression analyses were applied to examine the effect of time period on the number and prevalence of prescribed medications. Analyses were stratified by gender and three age groups.

RESULTS

The number of prescribed medications per person has increased significantly for all examined subgroups. For the two younger age groups, insulin prescriptions decreased but those of non-insulin medications increased, while both increased significantly over time for the age group of 65+ years. Except for glycosides and antiarrhythmic medications, the predicted probabilities for CVD medications increased over the examined periods, with lipid-lowering agents demonstrating the highest increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Results point towards an increase in medication prescriptions in T2D, which is in line with the evidence of the increase in most comorbidities indicating morbidity expansion. The increase in CVD medication prescriptions, especially lipid-lowering agents, could explain the specific development of severe and less severe T2D comorbidities observed in this population.

Age-period-cohort analysis of depression trends: are depressive symptoms increasing across generations in Germany?

Several studies have examined trends in depression, but only few have explicitly considered possible generational differences. I examined changes in the burden of depressive symptoms between 2002 and 2017 according to age, time period and birth cohort in Germany. I used population-based data drawn from the German Aging Survey (N = 33,723, 54% female, ages 40 +) from 2002, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017. Depressive symptoms were measured via the CES-D 15. Hierarchical age-period-cohort models were used to examine trends in depression. I found that depressive symptoms changed across age, time period and birth cohorts. While there was a general decrease across time periods, strong evidence for a U-shaped cohort effect was also found: Younger generations, beginning with cohorts born after the World War II, increasingly report more depressive symptoms than older generations. This U-shaped cohort trend appeared most pronounced for the somatic symptoms subscale. Contrarily, only minimal cohort differences were found regarding the positive affect subscale. Therefore, depressive symptoms, and especially somatic symptoms, seem to increase in more recent birth cohorts in Germany, who might thus be at risk to experience more mental health problems in the future. Potential reasons for these trends and the generalizability of the results to other countries should be investigated by future studies.

Trends in Activity Limitations From an International Perspective: Differential Changes Between Age Groups Across 30 Countries

Objectives: Examine trends in limitations among young (15–39), middle-aged (40–64) and older age-groups (>=65) and their socioeconomic differences. Methods: Population-based European Social Survey data ( N = 396,853) were used, covering 30 mostly European countries and spanning the time-period 2002–2018. Limitations were measured using a global activity limitations indicator. Results: Age-differential trends in limitations were found. Activity limitations generally decreased in older adults, whereas trends varied among younger and middle-aged participants, with decreasing limitations in some countries but increasing limitations in others. These age-differential trends were replicated across limitation severity and socioeconomic groups; however, stronger limitation increases occurred regarding less-severe limitations. Discussion: Functional health has improved in older adults. Contrarily, the increasing limitations in younger and middle-aged individuals seem concerning, which were mostly observed in Western and Northern European countries. Given its public health importance, future studies should investigate the reasons for this declining functional health in the young and middle-aged.

Compression and Expansion of Morbidity

BACKGROUND

Morbidity is said to be compressed when the interval from the onset of a disease or disability to death becomes shorter over time, or when the incidence of the disease or disability declines over time. In the reverse situation, morbidity is said to be expanded.

METHODS

This review is based on national and international studies retrieved by a selective literature search on secular trends in morbidity and mortality. The findings were derived from data from surveys and registries, and from the routine data of health insurance carriers.

RESULTS

Three different types of secular trends in morbidity were seen. For some diseases (e.g., lung cancer, stroke, and dementia), morbidity among the elderly was compressed over time. On the other hand, for multimorbidity and type 2 diabetes including comorbidities, morbidity expanded over time. Unexpectedly, a double development was seen in certain other conditions, with both compression among the elderly and expansion among the middle-aged: this was particularly so for myo - cardial infarction, grip strength, and indicators of general health.

CONCLUSION

The notion of morbidity being reduced by compression seems less tenable in view of the double development just mentioned. The findings suggest that the observed secular trend toward better health among the elderly has not persisted among the more recently born cohorts. This can have negative effects on social security systems, particularly with respect to retirement ages being deferred or made more flexible, as well as the cost of health care.

Healthy life years among people with and without diabetes in Germany

In addition to life expectancy, the length of time a person can expect to remain free of health-related functional impairments is becoming increasingly important both for the individuals concerned and for society at large. The indicator healthy life years used for this purpose is a key figure for mapping mortality and morbidity. Diabetes is one of the most common chronic diseases and can be associated with health-related functional impairments. In 2014, women and men with diabetes could expect to have significantly fewer healthy life years than people without diabetes; this particularly applies to younger and middle-aged groups. Among 30- to 34-year-olds, for example, women and men with diabetes could expect eleven and twelve fewer healthy life years respectively than people without diabetes. These differences narrow with increasing age. Ensuring that people with and without diabetes have a similar length of lifetime free of health impairments is an important task for public health.

Development of comorbidities in type 2 diabetes between 2005 and 2017 using German claims data

Against the background of increasing life expectancy over time, several hypotheses have been proposed on the way morbidity has been developing. In type 2 diabetes (T2D), previous research suggests that morbidity compression could be ruled out due to increasing prevalence and life expectancy with T2D over time. Understanding how the health state in individuals with T2D is developing would help identify whether morbidity expansion or a dynamic equilibrium pattern applies for this disease. This study aims to answer the following questions: (1) How do the number and the prevalence of T2D concordant comorbidities develop over time? (2) What does this imply in terms of morbidity development in T2D in Germany? The study used claims data from a statutory health insurance provider in Lower Saxony, Germany. Period prevalence of T2D concordant comorbidities was examined for the periods 2005–2007, 2010–2012 and 2015–2017 in 240,241, 295,868 and 308,134 individuals with T2D respectively. The effect of time period on the number and prevalence of comorbidities was examined by means of (ordered) logistic regression. The age-adjusted predicted probabilities of more severe cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) decreased over the three periods while those of less severe CVDs and other vascular diseases increased significantly in men and women and among all examined age-groups. Predicted probability of having at least one more comorbidity over time also increased significantly among all examined groups. While less and more severe CVDs exhibited different developmental patterns, the results of the study point towards morbidity expansion in T2D. Future studies should focus on mechanisms that contribute to these trends.