Using short-term endpoints to improve interim decision making and trial duration in two-stage phase II trials with nested binary endpoints

In oncology, phase II clinical trials are often planned as single-arm two-stage designs with a binary endpoint, for example, progression-free survival after 12 months, and the option to stop for futility after the first stage. Simon's two-stage design is a very popular approach but depending on the follow-up time required to measure the patients' outcomes the trial may have to be paused undesirably long. To shorten this forced interruption, it was proposed to use a short-term endpoint for the interim decision, such as progression-free survival after 3 months. We show that if the assumptions for the short-term endpoint are misspecified, the decision-making in the interim can be misleading, resulting in a great loss of statistical power. For the setting of a binary endpoint with nested measurements, such as progression-free survival, we propose two approaches that utilize all available short-term and long-term assessments of the endpoint to guide the interim decision. One approach is based on conditional power and the other is based on Bayesian posterior predictive probability of success. In extensive simulations, we show that both methods perform similarly, when appropriately calibrated, and can greatly improve power compared to the existing approach in settings with slow patient recruitment. Software code to implement the methods is made publicly available.

Trastuzumab deruxtecan in metastatic breast cancer with variable HER2 expression: the phase 2 DAISY trial

The mechanisms of action of and resistance to trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd), an anti-HER2-drug conjugate for breast cancer treatment, remain unclear. The phase 2 DAISY trial evaluated the efficacy of T-DXd in patients with HER2-overexpressing (n = 72, cohort 1), HER2-low (n = 74, cohort 2) and HER2 non-expressing (n = 40, cohort 3) metastatic breast cancer. In the full analysis set population (n = 177), the confirmed objective response rate (primary endpoint) was 70.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 58.3-81) in cohort 1, 37.5% (95% CI 26.4-49.7) in cohort 2 and 29.7% (95% CI 15.9-47) in cohort 3. The primary endpoint was met in cohorts 1 and 2. Secondary endpoints included safety. No new safety signals were observed. During treatment, HER2-expressing tumors (n = 4) presented strong T-DXd staining. Conversely, HER2 immunohistochemistry 0 samples (n = 3) presented no or very few T-DXd staining (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.75, P = 0.053). Among patients with HER2 immunohistochemistry 0 metastatic breast cancer, 5 of 14 (35.7%, 95% CI 12.8-64.9) with ERBB2 expression below the median presented a confirmed objective response as compared to 3 of 10 (30%, 95% CI 6.7-65.2) with ERBB2 expression above the median. Although HER2 expression is a determinant of T-DXd efficacy, our study suggests that additional mechanisms may also be involved. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04132960 .).

Bayesian single-to-double arm transition design using both short-term and long-term endpoints

The choice between single-arm designs versus randomized double-arm designs has been contentiously debated in the literature of phase II oncology trials. Recently, as a compromise, the single-to-double arm transition design was proposed, combining the two designs into one trial over two stages. Successful implementation of the two-stage transition design requires a suspension period at the end of the first stage to collect the response data of the already enrolled patients. When the evaluation of the primary efficacy endpoint is overly long, the between-stage suspension period may unfavorably prolong the trial duration and cause a delay in treating future eligible patients. To accelerate the trial, we propose a Bayesian single-to-double arm design with short-term endpoints (BSDS), where an intermediate short-term endpoint is used for making early termination decisions at the end of the single-arm stage, followed by an evaluation of the long-term endpoint at the end of the subsequent double-arm stage. Bayesian posterior probabilities are used as the primary decision-making tool at the end of the trial. Design calibration steps are proposed for this Bayesian monitoring process to control the frequentist operating characteristics and minimize the expected sample size. Extensive simulation studies have demonstrated that our design has comparable power and average sample size but a much shorter trial duration than conventional single-to-double arm design. Applications of the design are illustrated using two phase II oncology trials with binary endpoints.

When is a two-stage single-arm trial efficient? An evaluation of the impact of outcome delay

BACKGROUND

Simon's two-stage design is a widely used adaptive design, particularly in phase II oncology trials due to its simplicity and efficiency. However, its efficiency can be adversely affected when the primary end-point takes time to observe, as is common in practice.

METHODS

We propose an optimal design, taking the delay in observing treatment outcome into consideration and compare the efficiency gained from using Simon's design over a single-stage design for real-life oncology trials. Based on the results, we provide a general rule-of-thumb for determining whether a two-stage single-arm design can provide any added advantage over a single-stage design, given the recruitment rate and primary end-point length.

RESULTS

We observed an average 15-30% loss in the estimated efficiency gain in real oncology trials that used Simon's design due to the delay in observing the treatment outcome. The delay-optimal design provides some advantage over Simon's design in terms of reduced sample size when the delay is large compared to the recruitment length.

DISCUSSION

Simon's two-stage design provides large benefit over a single-stage design, in terms of reduced sample size, when the primary end-point length is no more than 10% of the total recruitment time. It provides no efficiency advantage when this ratio is above 50%.

Extending the two-stage single arm phase II clinical trial design to the delayed response scenario

Two-stage single arm designs are widely used in phase II clinical trials with binary endpoints. The trial may be stopped early due to insufficient positive responses in the first stage. There may be some enrolled subjects who have yet to respond by the end of the first stage, and their data are ignored if the first stage results in rejection of the trial. It is possible that the result after the first stage is rejection by a slim margin, while the results of pipeline subjects are quite positive. In this case, combining the data from the two sources may provide a valuable opportunity to rescue a promising treatment that was mistakenly rejected. We propose a novel double-check design to take advantage of the pipeline subjects' data to establish a rescue criterion based on two-stage design. When the rescue criterion is met, the decision to reject the trial at the end of the first stage can be reversed, allowing the trial to continue. A derivation based on a binomial distribution shows that the double-check strategy can strictly preserve the type I error rate. Further examination shows that the strategy can provide a slight increase in overall power and a substantial increase in conditional power when the proportion of positive response at the end of the first stage is at the margin. The extra rescue opportunity's cost is pretty low, only a slight increasing in the expected sample size.

A multicenter phase II study of TAS-114 in combination with S-1 in patients with pretreated advanced gastric cancer (EPOC1604)

BACKGROUND

This is a phase 2 study aimed at evaluating the efficacy and safety of TAS-114, a novel deoxyuridine triphosphatase inhibitor, combined with S-1 in patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC).

METHODS

Eligible patients had AGC with measurable lesions, according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST, v1.1), with two or more previous chemotherapy regimens including fluoropyrimidines, platinum agents, and taxanes or irinotecan. The primary endpoint was objective response rate (ORR) according to the RECIST, v1.1. Twenty-nine patients were required according to Simon's optimal two-stage design, with one-sided a = 5% and power = 80%. Threshold and expected ORRs were 5% and 25%. Patients received TAS-114 (400 mg/body, twice a day) and S-1 (30 mg/m², twice a day) for 14 days, followed by 7 days of rest in one 3-week cycle. Protein expression levels of dUTPase and BRCA1 in tumor samples were determined by immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS

Accrual was terminated in June 2018 because meeting the predefined efficacy criteria was considered difficult. ORR and disease control rate were 5.0% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.1-24.9%] and 70.0% (95% CI, 45.7-88.1%), respectively, for all 20 patients enrolled. Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival were 2.4 months (95% CI, 1.2-3.3 months) and 7.1 months (95% CI, 5.2-9.4 months), respectively. Median PFS in the groups with high and low dUTPase protein expression in the cytoplasm was 2.8 months (95% CI, 1.4-3.9) and 1.6 months (95% CI, 0.6-2.4), respectively [hazard ratio, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.16-1.04), log-rank test two-sided p = 0.047]. Grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events included anemia (20%), leucopenia (15%), neutropenia (10%), rash (10%), thrombocytopenia (5%), and lymphopenia (5%) CONCLUSIONS: TAS-114 with S-1 showed only modest antitumor activity with acceptable safety profiles for patients heavily pretreated with AGC.

Multicenter Phase I/II Trial of Napabucasin and Pembrolizumab in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (EPOC1503/SCOOP Trial)

PURPOSE

This is a phase I/II trial to assess the efficacy and safety of napabucasin plus pembrolizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Phase I was conducted to determine the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) in a dose escalation design of napabucasin (240 to 480 mg twice daily) with 200 mg pembrolizumab every 3 weeks. Phase II included cohort A (n = 10, microsatellite instability high, MSI-H) and cohort B (n = 40, microsatellite stable, MSS). The primary endpoint was immune-related objective response rate (irORR). PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS), genomic profiles, and the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) of colorectal cancer were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 55 patients were enrolled in this study. In phase I, no patients experienced dose-limiting toxicities, and napabucasin 480 mg was determined as RP2D. The irORR was 50.0% in cohort A and 10.0% in cohort B. In cohort B, the irORR was 0%, 5.3%, and 42.9% in CPS < 1, 1≤ CPS <10, and CPS ≥ 10, respectively. Patients with objective response tended to have higher tumor mutation burden than those without. Of evaluable 18 patients for CMS classification in cohort B, the irORR was 33.3%, 0%, 33.3%, and 33.3% in CMS1, CMS2, CMS3, and CMS4, respectively. The common grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events included fever (10.0%) in cohort A and decreased appetite (7.5%) and diarrhea (5.0%) in cohort B.

CONCLUSIONS

Napabucasin with pembrolizumab showed antitumor activity with acceptable toxicities for patients with MSS mCRC as well as MSI-H mCRC, although it did not meet the primary end point. The impact of related biomarkers on the efficacy warrants further investigations in the additional cohort.See related commentary by Nusrat, p. 5775.

Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab in patients with advanced gastric cancer in the first-line or second-line setting (EPOC1706): an open-label, single-arm, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Pembrolizumab, an anti-PD-1 antibody, results in tumour response in around 15% of patients with advanced gastric cancer who have a PD-L1 combined positive score of at least 1. Lenvatinib, a multikinase inhibitor of VEGF receptors and other receptor tyrosine kinases, substantially decreased tumour-associated macrophages and increased infiltration of CD8 T cells, resulting in enhanced anti-tumour activity of PD-1 inhibitors in an in-vivo model. We aimed to assess the combination of lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab in patients with advanced gastric cancer in a phase 2 study.

METHODS

This study was an open-label, single-arm, phase 2 trial undertaken at the National Cancer Center Hospital East (Chiba, Japan). Eligible patients were aged 20 years or older and had metastatic or recurrent adenocarcinoma of the stomach or gastro-oesophageal junction, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, and measurable disease according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST version 1.1), irrespective of the number of previous lines of treatment. Patients received 20 mg oral lenvatinib daily plus 200 mg intravenous pembrolizumab every 3 weeks until disease progression, development of intolerable toxicity, or withdrawal of consent. The primary endpoint was objective response rate according to RECIST, analysed in all patients who were eligible and received protocol treatment at least once. The safety analysis included all those who received protocol treatment at least once, regardless of eligibility. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03609359, and enrolment is complete.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 15, 2018, and March 25, 2019, 29 patients were enrolled in the first-line or second-line settings. At data cutoff (March 20, 2020), the median follow-up was 12·6 months (IQR 10·5-14·3). 20 (69%, 95% CI 49-85) of 29 patients had an objective response. The most common grade 3 treatment-related adverse events were hypertension (in 11 [38%] patients), proteinuria (five [17%]), and platelet count decrease (two [7%]). No grade 4 treatment-related adverse events, serious treatment-related adverse events, or treatment-related deaths occurred.

INTERPRETATION

Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab showed promising anti-tumour activity with an acceptable safety profile in patients with advanced gastric cancer. On the basis of these results, a confirmatory trial will be planned in the future.

FUNDING

Merck Sharp & Dohme.

Rationale and design of the BRAVERY study (EPOC1701): a multicentre phase II study of eribulin in patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

BRAF V600E mutations are associated with aggressive biology and limited response to standard chemotherapy, especially during second-line and beyond therapies. BRAF V600E mutant and wild-type colorectal cancers (CRCs) differ in their expression profiles, and preclinical evidence suggests that microtubule inhibitors have an antitumour effect on xenograft models of BRAF V600E mutant CRCs. Eribulin has the best growth inhibitory activity in vitro of the microtubule inhibitors. Also, we have evidenced a hint of activity for patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic CRC (mCRC) with tumour shrinkage following eribulin treatment.

Trial design

The BRAVERY study is a multicentre phase II study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of eribulin in patients with BRAF V600E mutant mCRC detected in either tumour tissues (primary analysis part) or circulating tumour DNA assays (liquid biopsy part). Key eligibility criteria are refractoriness and intolerance to at least one regimen (including irinotecan or oxaliplatin) containing fluoropyrimidine and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1. Eribulin is to be administered intravenously at a dose of 1.4 mg/m² on days 1 and 8 and repeated every 21 days. The primary endpoint is the confirmed objective response rate (ORR) by investigator's assessment. We calculated the sample size of the primary analysis part at 27 patients using a two-stage design with 25% ORR deemed promising and 5% unacceptable (one-sided α, 0.05; β, 0.1). Secondary endpoints include disease control rate, progression-free survival, overall survival and adverse events. Moreover, we will collect pretreated tissue and serial blood samples for biomarker analyses, focusing on gene expression associated with BRAF mutant-like CRC to find predictive markers and acquired gene alterations to detect resistance mechanisms to eribulin. We initiated patient enrolment in March 2018, completed the primary analysis on May 2019, and are currently continuing with the liquid biopsy part.

Trial registration number

UMIN000031221 and 000031552.

Evaluating futility of a binary clinical endpoint using early read-outs

Interim analyses are routinely used to monitor accumulating data in clinical trials. When the objective of the interim analysis is to stop the trial if the trial is deemed futile, it must ideally be conducted as early as possible. In trials where the clinical endpoint of interest is only observed after a long follow-up, many enrolled patients may therefore have no information on the primary endpoint available at the time of the interim analysis. To facilitate earlier decision-making, one may incorporate early response data that are predictive for the primary endpoint (eg, an assessment of the primary endpoint at an earlier time) in the interim analysis. Most attention so far has been given to the development of interim test statistics that include such short-term endpoints, but not to decision procedures. Existing tests moreover perform poorly when the information is scarce, eg, due to rare events, when the cohort of patients with observed primary endpoint data is small, or when the short-term endpoint is a strong but imperfect predictor. In view of this, we develop an interim decision procedure based on the conditional power approach that utilizes the short-term and long-term binary endpoints in a framework that is expected to provide reliable inferences, even when the primary endpoint is only available for a few patients, and has the added advantage that it allows the use of historical information. The operational characteristics of the proposed procedure are evaluated for the phase III clinical trial that motivated this approach, using simulation studies.

A two-stage phase II clinical trial design with nested criteria for early stopping and efficacy

We propose a two-stage design for a single arm clinical trial with an early stopping rule for futility. This design employs different endpoints to assess early stopping and efficacy. The early stopping rule is based on a criteria determined more quickly than that for efficacy. These separate criteria are also nested in the sense that efficacy is a special case of, but usually not identical to, the early stopping endpoint. The design readily allows for planning in terms of statistical significance, power, expected sample size, and expected duration. This method is illustrated with a phase II design comparing rates of disease progression in elderly patients treated for lung cancer to rates found using a historical control. In this example, the early stopping rule is based on the number of patients who exhibit progression-free survival (PFS) at 2 months post treatment follow-up. Efficacy is judged by the number of patients who have PFS at 6 months. We demonstrate our design has expected sample size and power comparable with the Simon two-stage design but exhibits shorter expected duration under a range of useful parameter values.

Interim analysis incorporating short- and long-term binary endpoints

Designs incorporating more than one endpoint have become popular in drug development. One of such designs allows for incorporation of short‐term information in an interim analysis if the long‐term primary endpoint has not been yet observed for some of the patients. At first we consider a two‐stage design with binary endpoints allowing for futility stopping only based on conditional power under both fixed and observed effects. Design characteristics of three estimators: using primary long‐term endpoint only, short‐term endpoint only, and combining data from both are compared. For each approach, equivalent cut‐off point values for fixed and observed effect conditional power calculations can be derived resulting in the same overall power. While in trials stopping for futility the type I error rate cannot get inflated (it usually decreases), there is loss of power. In this study, we consider different scenarios, including different thresholds for conditional power, different amount of information available at the interim, different correlations and probabilities of success. We further extend the methods to adaptive designs with unblinded sample size reassessments based on conditional power with inverse normal method as the combination function. Two different futility stopping rules are considered: one based on the conditional power, and one from P‐values based on Z‐statistics of the estimators. Average sample size, probability to stop for futility and overall power of the trial are compared and the influence of the choice of weights is investigated.

An oncology clinical trial design with randomization adaptive to both short- and long-term responses

In oncology clinical trials, both short-term response and long-term survival are important. We propose an urn-based adaptive randomization design to incorporate both of these two outcomes. While short-term response can update the randomization probability quickly to benefit the trial participants, long-term survival outcome can also change the randomization to favor the treatment arm with definitive therapeutic benefit. Using generalized Friedman's urn, we derive an explicit formula for the limiting distribution of the number of subjects assigned to each arm. With prior or hypothetical knowledge on treatment effects, this formula can be used to guide the selection of parameters for the proposed design to achieve desirable patient number ratios between different treatment arms, and thus optimize the operating characteristics of the trial design. Simulation studies show that the proposed design successfully assign more patients to the treatment arms with either better short-term tumor response or long-term survival outcome or both.