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Binns C, Low WY. Dengue: The Public Health Threat That Never Goes Away. Asia Pac J Public Health 2023; 35:469-470. [PMID: 37881896 DOI: 10.1177/10105395231210362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Colin Binns
- School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Wah Yun Low
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Klimawandel und Kindergesundheit – Ein Aufruf zum Handeln. Monatsschr Kinderheilkd 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s00112-022-01642-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
ZusammenfassungDer Klimawandel ist eine stille Krise und die größte Bedrohung unserer Zeit. Hitze, Extremwetterereignisse und Luftverschmutzung haben besondere Auswirkungen auf Frühgeburtlichkeit, akute und chronische Atemwegserkrankungen, Allergien und Asthma. Auch die Zunahme infektiöser Erkrankungen sowie eine erhöhte Exposition durch Karzinogene sowie deren Folgen werden beobachtet. Neben der Gefahr des Klimawandels für die somatische, hat die Krise auch Einfluss auf die mentale Gesundheit von Heranwachsenden und aggraviert das soziale Ungleichgewicht, wovon Kinder und Jugendliche in besonderer Weise betroffen sind.Um die von Wissenschaftler:innen prognostizierten Szenarien abzuwenden, braucht es zum einen ein rasches und umfängliches Agieren der Politik, aber auch ein Neudenken unseres Selbstverständnisses als für Kinder- und Jugendgesundheit Verantwortliche sowie eine grundlegende Neuordnung von Prioritäten. Als Akteur:innen im Gesundheitswesen stehen wir besonders in der Verantwortung, uns für eine gesunde Erde einzusetzen. Dies kann und muss schon heute auf verschiedenen Ebenen, als Ärzt:innen, Wissenschaftler:innen, auf Ebenen der Patient:innenversorgung und der Fachgesellschaften erfolgen, um allen Kindern und Jugendlichen eine lebenswerte Zukunft zu ermöglichen.
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Epidemiological characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and its relationship with meteorological factors in Liaoning Province, China. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:283. [PMID: 35933453 PMCID: PMC9357322 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05395-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), one kind of tick-borne acute infectious disease, is caused by a novel bunyavirus. The relationship between meteorological factors and infectious diseases is a hot topic of current research. Liaoning Province has reported a high incidence of SFTS in recent years. However, the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS and its relationship with meteorological factors in the province remain largely unexplored. Methods Data on reported SFTS cases were collected from 2011 to 2019. Epidemiological characteristics of SFTS were analyzed. Spearman’s correlation test and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to identify the relationship between meteorological factors and the number of SFTS cases. Results From 2011 to 2019, the incidence showed an overall upward trend in Liaoning Province, with the highest incidence in 2019 (0.35/100,000). The incidence was slightly higher in males (55.9%, 438/783), and there were more SFTS patients in the 60–69 age group (31.29%, 245/783). Dalian City and Dandong City had the largest number of cases of SFTS (87.99%, 689/783). The median duration from the date of illness onset to the date of diagnosis was 8 days [interquartile range (IQR): 4–13 days]. Spearman correlation analysis and GLM showed that the number of SFTS cases was positively correlated with monthly average rainfall (rs = 0.750, P < 0.001; β = 0.285, P < 0.001), monthly average relative humidity (rs = 0.683, P < 0.001; β = 0.096, P < 0.001), monthly average temperature (rs = 0.822, P < 0.001; β = 0.154, P < 0.001), and monthly average ground temperature (rs = 0.810, P < 0.001; β = 0.134, P < 0.001), while negatively correlated with monthly average air pressure (rs = −0.728, P < 0.001; β = −0.145, P < 0.001), and monthly average wind speed (rs = −0.272, P < 0.05; β = −1.048, P < 0.001). By comparing both correlation coefficients and regression coefficients between the number of SFTS cases (dependent variable) and meteorological factors (independent variables), no significant differences were observed when considering immediate cases and cases with lags of 1 to 5 weeks for dependent variables. Based on the forward and backward stepwise GLM regression, the monthly average air pressure, monthly average temperature, monthly average wind speed, and time sequence were selected as relevant influences on the number of SFTS cases. Conclusion The annual incidence of SFTS increased year on year in Liaoning Province. Incidence of SFTS was affected by several meteorological factors, including monthly average air pressure, monthly average temperature, and monthly average wind speed. Graphical Abstract ![]()
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05395-4.
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Imane S, Oumaima B, Kenza K, Laila I, Youssef EM, Zineb S, Mohamed EJ. A Review on Climate, Air Pollution, and Health in North Africa. Curr Environ Health Rep 2022; 9:276-298. [PMID: 35352307 PMCID: PMC8964241 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-022-00350-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The aim of this review is to summarize and provide clear insights into studies that evaluate the interaction between air pollution, climate, and health in North Africa. RECENT FINDINGS Few studies have estimated the effects of climate and air pollution on health in North Africa. Most of the studies highlighted the evidence of the link between climate and air pollution as driving factors and increased mortality and morbidity as health outcomes. Each North African country prioritized research on a specific health factor. It was observed that the health outcome from each driving factor depends on the studied area and data availability. The latter is a major challenge in the region. As such, more studies should be led in the future to cover more areas in North Africa and when more data are available. Data availability will help to explore the applicability of different tools and techniques new to the region. This review explores studies related to climate and air pollution, and their possible impacts on health in North Africa. On one hand, air quality studies have focused mainly on particulate matter exceedance levels and their long-term exposure impacts, namely, morbidity and mortality. The observed differences between the various studies are mainly due to the used exposure-response function, the studied population, background emissions, and natural emission from the Sahara Desert that characterize the region. On the other hand, climate studies have focused primarily on the impact of heat waves, vector-borne disease, and mental disorders. More than half of these studies have been on leishmaniasis disease. The review revealed unbalanced and insufficient research on health impacts from air pollution episodes and climate extremes across the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sekmoudi Imane
- Process and Environment Engineering Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, Mohammedia. Hassan II University, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - Bouakline Oumaima
- SETIME Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ibn Tofail University, B.P 133, Kenitra, 14000 Morocco
| | - Khomsi Kenza
- General Directorate of Meteorology, Casablanca, Morocco
- Laboratory of Chemistry-Biochemistry, Environment, Nutrition and Health, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hassan II University, Ain Chock, Casablanca, P.O. Box 5696, Morocco
| | - Idrissi Laila
- Process and Environment Engineering Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, Mohammedia. Hassan II University, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - El merabet Youssef
- SETIME Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ibn Tofail University, B.P 133, Kenitra, 14000 Morocco
| | - Souhaili Zineb
- Laboratory of Chemistry-Biochemistry, Environment, Nutrition and Health, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hassan II University, Ain Chock, Casablanca, P.O. Box 5696, Morocco
| | - El jarmouni Mohamed
- National School of Applied Sciences, Water and Environmental Engineering Team, Applied Sciences Laboratory, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, B.P03, Ajdir, Al-Hoceima, Morocco
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Kulkarni MA, Duguay C, Ost K. Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews. Global Health 2022; 18:1. [PMID: 34980187 PMCID: PMC8725488 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Results A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control. Conclusions There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manisha A Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
| | - Claudia Duguay
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Katarina Ost
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
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Parija S. Climate adaptation impacting parasitic infection. Trop Parasitol 2022; 12:3-7. [PMID: 35923263 PMCID: PMC9341137 DOI: 10.4103/tp.tp_32_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Accepted: 06/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The steady and ongoing change in climatic patterns across the globe is triggering a cascade of climate-adaptive phenomena, both genetic and behavioral in parasites, and influencing the host–pathogen–transmission triangle. Parasite and vector traits are now heavily influenced due to increasing temperature that almost dissolved geospatial boundaries and impacted the basic reproductive number of parasites. As consequence, continents unknown to some parasites are experiencing altered distribution and abundance of new and emerging parasites that are developing into a newer epidemiological model. These are posing a burden to healthcare and higher disease prevalence. This calls for multidisciplinary actions focusing on One Health to improve and innovate in areas of detection, reporting, and medical countermeasures to combat the growing threat of parasite emergence owing to climate adaptations for better public health outcomes.
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Assessing the Factors of Dengue Transmission in Urban Environments of Pakistan. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12060773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The rationale of this study is to highlight the significance of relationships of dengue transmission with climate and societal factors for four major cities in Pakistan (i.e., Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi). These cities have been observed to report higher numbers of dengue cases in the last few years, with the highest number of cases reported during 2011. With careful consideration, the relationships of dengue transmission with climate factors, human population density, and traveling in the study areas have been taken into account. Regression model and generalized linear mixed model (GLM) with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm are computed to determine the relationships and random effects of different social (human population density, traveling) and climate (minimum-maximum temperatures, and rainfall) factors on dengue transmission. Neural network (NN) with multilayer perceptron algorithm is used to analyze the normalized importance of different covariates relative to dengue transmission. The results show that minimum temperature and rainfall, together with societal factors, significantly affecting the transmission of dengue in the study areas. The magnitude of these relationships is also shown by the results of the neural network. GLM also shows the significant random effects of minimum temperature, rainfall, human population density, and traveling on dengue transmission during the studied years (2009–2018).
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Titus Muurlink O, Stephenson P, Islam MZ, Taylor-Robinson AW. Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: A data mining approach. Infect Dis Model 2018; 3:322-330. [PMID: 30839927 PMCID: PMC6326231 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2017] [Revised: 11/21/2018] [Accepted: 11/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The effects of weather variables on the transmission of vector-borne diseases are complex. Relationships can be non-linear, specific to particular geographic locations, and involve long lag times between predictors and outbreaks of disease. This study expands the geographical and temporal range of previous studies in Bangladesh of the mosquito-transmitted viral infection dengue, a major threat to human public health in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The analysis incorporates new compound variables such as anomalous events, running averages, consecutive days of particular weather characteristics, seasonal variables based on the traditional Bangla six-season annual calendar, and lag times of up to one year in predicting either the existence or the magnitude of each dengue epidemic. The study takes a novel, comprehensive data mining approach to show that different variables optimally predict the occurrence and extent of an outbreak. The best predictors of an outbreak are the number of rainy days in the preceding two months and the average daily minimum temperature one month prior to the outbreak, while the best predictor of the number of clinical cases is the average humidity six months prior to the month of outbreak. The magnitude of relationships between humidity 6, 7 and 8 months prior to the outbreak suggests the relationship is multifactorial, not due solely to the cyclical nature of prevailing weather conditions but likely due also to the immunocompetence of human hosts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olav Titus Muurlink
- Central Queensland University, Brisbane, Australia.,Griffith Institute of Educational Research, Australia
| | - Peter Stephenson
- Central Queensland University, Brisbane, Australia.,International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh.,Griffith Institute of Educational Research, Australia
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Zahirul Islam M, Rutherford S, Phung D, Uzzaman MN, Baum S, Huda MM, Asaduzzaman M, Talukder MRR, Chu C. Correlates of Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Two Metropolitan Cities in Bangladesh. Cureus 2018; 10:e3398. [PMID: 30533332 PMCID: PMC6278996 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.3398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2018] [Accepted: 10/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue fever is a major public health concern in Bangladesh with increased incidence during monsoon. We aimed to assess the correlation of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on dengue fever in two dengue endemic cities in Bangladesh. It was a time series analysis of climate factors and dengue occurrence data in Dhaka and Chittagong cities from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Daily mean temperature, rainfall, and humidity data were obtained from the Bangladesh meteorological department and daily dengue cases data were obtained from the directorate general of health services (DGHS) of Bangladesh. The mean dengue incidence was 31.62 (SD 28.7) per 100,000 in Dhaka whereas it was 5.76 (SD 11.7) per 100,000 population in Chittagong. The incidence of dengue cases was found significantly associated with the monthly mean temperature, total rainfall, and mean humidity in Dhaka, though in Chittagong, the significantly associated factors were monthly total rainfall and mean humidity. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identified monthly mean humidity and total rainfall as the most significant contributing factors for dengue cases in Dhaka and Chittagong, respectively. Our study reinforces the relationship of climate parameters with dengue fever, which will support policy-makers in developing a climate-based early warning system for dengue in Bangladesh.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Dung Phung
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Griffith University, Brisbane, AUS
| | - Md Nazim Uzzaman
- Epidemiology and Public Health, International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Scott Baum
- Miscellaneous, Griffith University, Brisbane, AUS
| | - M Mamun Huda
- Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, AUS
| | - Muhammad Asaduzzaman
- Epidemiology and Public Health, International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, BGD
| | | | - Cordia Chu
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Griffith University, Brisbane, AUS
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Zhang Q, Liu W, Ma W, Zhang L, Shi Y, Wu Y, Zhu Y, Zhou M. Impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in Jiangsu province, China. Public Health 2018; 161:59-66. [DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2018.02.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2017] [Revised: 01/27/2018] [Accepted: 02/18/2018] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
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Thi Tuyet-Hanh T, Nhat Cam N, Thi Thanh Huong L, Khanh Long T, Mai Kien T, Thi Kim Hanh D, Huu Quyen N, Nu Quy Linh T, Rocklöv J, Quam M, Van Minh H. Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Hanoi, Viet Nam, During 2008 to 2015. Asia Pac J Public Health 2018; 30:532-541. [PMID: 30045631 DOI: 10.1177/1010539518790143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) has been an important public health challenge in Viet Nam and worldwide. This study was implemented in 2016-2017 using retrospective secondary data to explore associations between monthly DF/DHF cases and climate variables during 2008 to 2015. There were 48 175 DF/DHF cases reported, and the highest number of cases occurred in November. There were significant correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases with monthly mean of evaporation ( r = 0.236, P < .05), monthly relative humidity ( r = -0.358, P < .05), and monthly total hours of sunshine ( r = 0.389, P < .05). The results showed significant correlation in lag models but did not find direct correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases and monthly average rainfall and temperature. The study recommended that health staff in Hanoi should monitor DF/DHF cases at the beginning of epidemic period, starting from May, and apply timely prevention and intervention measures to avoid the spreading of the disease in the following months. A larger scale study for a longer period of time and adjusting for other potential influencing factors could better describe the correlations, modelling/projection, and developing an early warning system for the disease, which is important under the impacts of climate change and climate variability.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Tran Khanh Long
- 3 Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tran Mai Kien
- 4 Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change, Hanoi, Viet Nam
| | | | - Nguyen Huu Quyen
- 4 Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change, Hanoi, Viet Nam
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Sadoine ML, Smargiassi A, Ridde V, Tusting LS, Zinszer K. The associations between malaria, interventions, and the environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Malar J 2018; 17:73. [PMID: 29415721 PMCID: PMC5803989 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-018-2220-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2017] [Accepted: 01/31/2018] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malaria transmission is driven by multiple factors, including complex and multifaceted connections between malaria transmission, socioeconomic conditions, climate and interventions. Forecasting models should account for all significant drivers of malaria incidence although it is first necessary to understand the relationship between malaria burden and the various determinants of risk to inform the development of forecasting models. In this study, the associations between malaria risk, environmental factors, and interventions were evaluated through a systematic review. METHODS Five electronic databases (CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses) were searched for studies that included both the effects of the environment and interventions on malaria within the same statistical model. Studies were restricted to quantitative analyses and health outcomes of malaria mortality or morbidity, outbreaks, or transmission suitability. Meta-analyses were conducted on a subset of results using random-effects models. RESULTS Eleven studies of 2248 potentially relevant articles that met inclusion criteria were identified for the systematic review and two meta-analyses based upon five results each were performed. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was not found to be statistically significant associated with malaria with a pooled OR of 1.10 (95% CI 0.07, 1.71). Bed net ownership was statistically associated with decreasing risk of malaria, when controlling for the effects of environment with a pooled OR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.60, 0.95). In general, environmental effects on malaria, while controlling for the effect of interventions, were variable and showed no particular pattern. Bed nets ownership, use and distribution, have a significant protective effect while controlling for environmental variables. CONCLUSIONS There are a limited number of studies which have simultaneously evaluated both environmental and interventional effects on malaria risk. Poor statistical reporting and a lack of common metrics were important challenges for this review, which must be addressed to ensure reproducibility and quality research. A comprehensive or inclusive approach to identifying malaria determinants using standardized indicators would allow for a better understanding of its epidemiology, which is crucial to improve future malaria risk estimations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margaux L Sadoine
- Université de Montréal Public Health Research Institute (Institut de Recherche en Santé Publique (IRSPUM)), Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
- School of Public Health, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
| | - Audrey Smargiassi
- Université de Montréal Public Health Research Institute (Institut de Recherche en Santé Publique (IRSPUM)), Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
- School of Public Health, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Valéry Ridde
- Université de Montréal Public Health Research Institute (Institut de Recherche en Santé Publique (IRSPUM)), Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
- School of Public Health, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Lucy S Tusting
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kate Zinszer
- Université de Montréal Public Health Research Institute (Institut de Recherche en Santé Publique (IRSPUM)), Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
- School of Public Health, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
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Janko MM, Irish SR, Reich BJ, Peterson M, Doctor SM, Mwandagalirwa MK, Likwela JL, Tshefu AK, Meshnick SR, Emch ME. The links between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria risk in children younger than 5 years in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study. Lancet Planet Health 2018; 2:e74-e82. [PMID: 29457150 PMCID: PMC5809714 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(18)30009-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The relationship between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria in Africa is not fully understood, but it is important for malaria control as countries consider expanding agricultural projects to address population growth and food demand. Therefore, we aimed to assess the effect of agriculture on Anopheles biting behaviour and malaria risk in children in rural areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo). METHODS We did a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study of rural children (<5 years) in the DR Congo. We used information about the presence of malaria parasites in each child, as determined by PCR analysis of dried-blood spots from the 2013-14 DR Congo Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). We also used data from the DHS, a longitudinal entomological study, and available land cover and climate data to evaluate the relationships between agriculture, Anopheles biting behaviour, and malaria prevalence. Satellite imagery was used to measure the percentage of agricultural land cover around DHS villages and Anopheles sites. Anopheles biting behaviour was assessed by Human Landing Catch. We used probit regression to assess the relationship between agriculture and the probability of malaria infection, as well as the relationship between agriculture and the probability that a mosquito was caught biting indoors. FINDINGS Between Aug 13, 2013, and Feb 13, 2014, a total of 9790 dried-blood spots were obtained from the DHS, of which 4612 participants were included in this study. Falciparum malaria infection prevalence in rural children was 38·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37·3-40·0). Increasing exposure to agriculture was associated with increasing malaria risk with a high posterior probability (estimate 0·07, 95% UI -0·04 to 0·17; posterior probability [estimate >0]=0·89), with the probability of malaria infection increased between 0·2% (95% UI -0·1 to 3·4) and 2·6% (-1·5 to 6·6) given a 15% increase in agricultural cover, depending on other risk factors. The models predicted that large increases in agricultural cover (from 0% to 75%) increase the probability of infection by as much as 13·1% (95% UI -7·3 to 28·9). Increased risk might be due to Anopheles gambiae sensu lato, whose probability of biting indoors increased between 11·3% (95% UI -15·3 to 25·6) and 19·7% (-12·1 to 35·9) with a 15% increase in agriculture. INTERPRETATION Malaria control programmes must consider the possibility of increased risk due to expanding agriculture. Governments considering initiating large-scale agricultural projects should therefore also consider accompanying additional malaria control measures. FUNDING National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, President's Malaria Initiative, and Royster Society of Fellows at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark M Janko
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Geography, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
| | - Seth R Irish
- University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; President's Malaria Initiative and Entomology Branch, Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Brian J Reich
- Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | | | | | | | - Joris L Likwela
- Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Antoinette K Tshefu
- Department of Community Health, Ecole de Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | | | - Michael E Emch
- Department of Geography, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15020187. [PMID: 29360797 PMCID: PMC5857046 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15020187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 01/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.
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Phuong LTD, Hanh TTT, Nam VS. Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam during 2004-2014. AIMS Public Health 2016; 3:769-780. [PMID: 29546194 PMCID: PMC5690404 DOI: 10.3934/publichealth.2016.4.769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2016] [Accepted: 09/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Currently, dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) is an important public health challenge in many areas, including the Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam. Methods and Aim This study was conducted in 2015 using a retrospective secondary data analysis on monthly data of DF/DHF cases and climate conditions from 2004-2014 in Ba Tri District, which aimed to explore the relationship between DF/DHF and climate variables. Results During the period of 2004-2014, there were 5728 reported DF/DHF cases and five deaths. The disease occurred year round, with peaked from May to October and the highest number of cases occurred in June and July. There were strong correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases within that period with average rainfall (r = 0.70), humidity (r = 0.59), mosquito density (r = 0.82), and Breteau index (r = 0.81). A moderate association was observed between the monthly average number of DF/DHF cases and the average temperature (r = 0.37). The monthly DF/DHF cases were also moderately correlated with the Aedes mosquito density. Conclusions and Recommendations Local health authorities need to monitor DF/DHF cases at the beginning of epidemic period, starting from April and to apply timely disease prevention measures to avoid the spreading of the disease in the following months. More vector control efforts should be implemented in March and April, just before the rainy season, which can help to reduce the vector density and the epidemic risk. A larger scale study using national data and for a longer period of time should be undertaken to thoroughly describe the correlation between climate variability and DF/DHF cases as well as for modeling and building projection model for the disease in the coming years. This can play an important role for active prevention of DF/DHF in Vietnam under the impacts of climate change and weather variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Le Thi Diem Phuong
- Ben Tre Provincial Center for Preventive Medicine, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam
| | | | - Vu Sinh Nam
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Vietnam
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Bowman LR, Tejeda GS, Coelho GE, Sulaiman LH, Gill BS, McCall PJ, Olliaro PL, Ranzinger SR, Quang LC, Ramm RS, Kroeger A, Petzold MG. Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0157971. [PMID: 27348752 PMCID: PMC4922573 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2016] [Accepted: 06/08/2016] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leigh R. Bowman
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | | | | | - Philip J. McCall
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Piero L. Olliaro
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Silvia R. Ranzinger
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Axel Kroeger
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Max G. Petzold
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland
- University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
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Abstract
Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Cameron S, Xiang J, Liu Q, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, Williams C, Bi P. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:11025-36. [PMID: 26371017 PMCID: PMC4586659 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120911025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2015] [Revised: 08/24/2015] [Accepted: 08/31/2015] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
| | - Scott Hanson-Easey
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
| | - Scott Cameron
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
| | - Jianjun Xiang
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Yehuan Sun
- Department of Epidemiology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China.
| | - Philip Weinstein
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaid 5005, Australia.
| | - Gil-Soo Han
- Communications and Media Studies, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University, Clayton 3800, Australia.
| | - Craig Williams
- Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide 5001, Australia.
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
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Jang JH, Lee JH, Je MK, Cho MJ, Bae YM, Son HS, Ahn I. Correlations Between the Incidence of National Notifiable Infectious Diseases and Public Open Data, Including Meteorological Factors and Medical Facility Resources. J Prev Med Public Health 2015; 48:203-15. [PMID: 26265666 PMCID: PMC4542299 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.14.057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2014] [Accepted: 07/22/2015] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study was performed to investigate the relationship between the incidence of national notifiable infectious diseases (NNIDs) and meteorological factors, air pollution levels, and hospital resources in Korea. METHODS We collected and stored 660,000 pieces of publicly available data associated with infectious diseases from public data portals and the Diseases Web Statistics System of Korea. We analyzed correlations between the monthly incidence of these diseases and monthly average temperatures and monthly average relative humidity, as well as vaccination rates, number of hospitals, and number of hospital beds by district in Seoul. RESULTS Of the 34 NNIDs, malaria showed the most significant correlation with temperature (r=0.949, p<0.01) and concentration of nitrogen dioxide (r=-0.884, p<0.01). We also found a strong correlation between the incidence of NNIDs and the number of hospital beds in 25 districts in Seoul (r=0.606, p<0.01). In particular, Geumcheon-gu was found to have the lowest incidence rate of NNIDs and the highest number of hospital beds per patient. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we conducted a correlational analysis of public data from Korean government portals that can be used as parameters to forecast the spread of outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin-Hwa Jang
- Biomedical Prediction Technology Laboratory, Convergence Technology Research Division, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, Daejeon, Korea ; Laboratory of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute of Public Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ji-Hae Lee
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute of Public Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea ; Graduate Program in Bioinformatics, College of Natural Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Mi-Kyung Je
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute of Public Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea ; Graduate Program in Bioinformatics, College of Natural Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Myeong-Ji Cho
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute of Public Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Young Mee Bae
- Department of Parasitology and Tropical Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea ; Institute of Endemic Diseases, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hyeon Seok Son
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute of Public Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea ; Graduate Program in Bioinformatics, College of Natural Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Insung Ahn
- Biomedical Prediction Technology Laboratory, Convergence Technology Research Division, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, Daejeon, Korea
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Midekisa A, Senay GB, Wimberly MC. Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 2014; 50:8791-8806. [PMID: 25653462 PMCID: PMC4303930 DOI: 10.1002/2014wr015634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2014] [Accepted: 10/08/2014] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region. KEY POINTS Remote sensing produced an accurate wetland map for the Ethiopian highlandsWetlands were associated with spatial variability in malaria riskMapping and monitoring wetlands can improve malaria spatial decision support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alemayehu Midekisa
- Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University Brookings, South Dakota, USA
| | - Gabriel B Senay
- U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA
| | - Michael C Wimberly
- Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University Brookings, South Dakota, USA
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Boeckmann M, Joyner TA. Old health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climate. Health Place 2014; 30:70-7. [PMID: 25216209 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2014] [Revised: 06/30/2014] [Accepted: 08/16/2014] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990-2010 averages) and future (2040-2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Boeckmann
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS, Department Prevention and Evaluation, Bremen, Germany; Center for Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, Germany.
| | - T Andrew Joyner
- 308 Ross Hall, East Tennessee State University, Department of Geosciences, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
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Petrić D, Bellini R, Scholte EJ, Rakotoarivony LM, Schaffner F. Monitoring population and environmental parameters of invasive mosquito species in Europe. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:187. [PMID: 24739334 PMCID: PMC4005621 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2013] [Accepted: 04/11/2014] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
To enable a better understanding of the overwhelming alterations in the invasive mosquito species (IMS), methodical insight into the population and environmental factors that govern the IMS and pathogen adaptations are essential. There are numerous ways of estimating mosquito populations, and usually these describe developmental and life-history parameters. The key population parameters that should be considered during the surveillance of invasive mosquito species are: (1) population size and dynamics during the season, (2) longevity, (3) biting behaviour, and (4) dispersal capacity. Knowledge of these parameters coupled with vector competence may help to determine the vectorial capacity of IMS and basic disease reproduction number (R0) to support mosquito borne disease (MBD) risk assessment. Similarly, environmental factors include availability and type of larval breeding containers, climate change, environmental change, human population density, increased human travel and goods transport, changes in living, agricultural and farming habits (e.g. land use), and reduction of resources in the life cycle of mosquitoes by interventions (e.g. source reduction of aquatic habitats). Human population distributions, urbanisation, and human population movement are the key behavioural factors in most IMS-transmitted diseases. Anthropogenic issues are related to the global spread of MBD such as the introduction, reintroduction, circulation of IMS and increased exposure to humans from infected mosquito bites. This review addresses the population and environmental factors underlying the growing changes in IMS populations in Europe and confers the parameters selected by criteria of their applicability. In addition, overview of the commonly used and newly developed tools for their monitoring is provided.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dušan Petrić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Laboratory for Medical Entomology, Trg D. Obradovića 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Romeo Bellini
- Centro Agricoltura Ambiente "G. Nicoli", Via Argini Nord 3351, 40014 Crevalcore, Italy
| | - Ernst-Jan Scholte
- National Centre for Monitoring of Vectors, Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Geertjesweg 15, P.O. Box 9102, 6700, HC, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Qviller L, Grøva L, Viljugrein H, Klingen I, Mysterud A. Temporal pattern of questing tick Ixodes ricinus density at differing elevations in the coastal region of western Norway. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:179. [PMID: 24725997 PMCID: PMC3986437 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2014] [Accepted: 04/03/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Climate change can affect the activity and distribution of species, including pathogens and parasites. The densities and distribution range of the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus) and it’s transmitted pathogens appears to be increasing. Thus, a better understanding of questing tick densities in relation to climate and weather conditions is urgently needed. The aim of this study was to test predictions regarding the temporal pattern of questing tick densities at two different elevations in Norway. We predict that questing tick densities will decrease with increasing elevations and increase with increasing temperatures, but predict that humidity levels will rarely affect ticks in this northern, coastal climate with high humidity. Methods We described the temporal pattern of questing tick densities at ~100 and ~400 m a.s.l. along twelve transects in the coastal region of Norway. We used the cloth lure method at 14-day intervals during the snow-free season to count ticks in two consecutive years in 20 m2 plots. We linked the temporal pattern of questing tick densities to local measurements of the prevailing weather. Results The questing tick densities were much higher and the season was longer at ~100 compared to at ~400 m a.s.l. There was a prominent spring peak in both years and a smaller autumn peak in one year at ~100 m a.s.l.; but no marked peak at ~400 m a.s.l. Tick densities correlated positively with temperature, from low densities <5°C, then increasing and levelling off >15-17°C. We found no evidence for reduced questing densities during the driest conditions measured. Conclusions Tick questing densities differed even locally linked to elevation (on the same hillside, a few kilometers apart). The tick densities were strongly hampered by low temperatures that limited the duration of the questing seasons, whereas the humidity appeared not to be a limiting factor under the humid conditions at our study site. We expect rising global temperatures to increase tick densities and lead to a transition from a short questing season with low densities in the current cold and sub-optimal tick habitats, to longer questing seasons with overall higher densities and a marked spring peak.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P,O, Box 1066, Blindern NO-0316 Oslo, Norway.
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Hardy AJ, Gamarra JGP, Cross DE, Macklin MG, Smith MW, Kihonda J, Killeen GF, Ling’ala GN, Thomas CJ. Habitat hydrology and geomorphology control the distribution of malaria vector larvae in rural Africa. PLoS One 2013; 8:e81931. [PMID: 24312606 PMCID: PMC3849348 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2013] [Accepted: 10/18/2013] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Larval source management is a promising component of integrated malaria control and elimination. This requires development of a framework to target productive locations through process-based understanding of habitat hydrology and geomorphology. Methods We conducted the first catchment scale study of fine resolution spatial and temporal variation in Anopheles habitat and productivity in relation to rainfall, hydrology and geomorphology for a high malaria transmission area of Tanzania. Results Monthly aggregates of rainfall, river stage and water table were not significantly related to the abundance of vector larvae. However, these metrics showed strong explanatory power to predict mosquito larval abundances after stratification by water body type, with a clear seasonal trend for each, defined on the basis of its geomorphological setting and origin. Conclusion Hydrological and geomorphological processes governing the availability and productivity of Anopheles breeding habitat need to be understood at the local scale for which larval source management is implemented in order to effectively target larval source interventions. Mapping and monitoring these processes is a well-established practice providing a tractable way forward for developing important malaria management tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J. Hardy
- Institute of Geography & Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
- Biomedical and Environmental Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
| | - Javier G. P. Gamarra
- Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
| | - Dónall E. Cross
- Biomedical and Environmental Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
- Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
| | - Mark G. Macklin
- Institute of Geography & Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
| | - Mark W. Smith
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Japhet Kihonda
- Biomedical and Environmental Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
| | - Gerry F. Killeen
- Biomedical and Environmental Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
- Vector Biology Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - George N. Ling’ala
- Biomedical and Environmental Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
| | - Chris J. Thomas
- Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
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Mostafavi E, Chinikar S, Bokaei S, Haghdoost A. Temporal modeling of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in eastern Iran. Int J Infect Dis 2013; 17:e524-8. [PMID: 23474177 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2013.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2012] [Revised: 01/09/2013] [Accepted: 01/11/2013] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study was conducted to determine the predicting factors of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in Zabol and Zahedan, from where more than 60% of all national cases are reported, in order to improve CCHF disease surveillance and to target control efforts. METHODS Data were collected from the National Reference Laboratory on Arboviruses and Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, the national meteorology organization, the veterinary organization, and the national statistics center of Iran. A Poisson regression analysis was applied for the temporal modeling of human samples between 2000 and 2006. The modeling fitness was checked with data from 2007. RESULTS This modeling revealed that the disease occurrence followed a seasonal pattern. The maximum temperature and relative humidity in previous months was found to positively affect the occurrence of the disease. Variables such as the level of livestock imports and the number of slaughtered animals were also found to be influential in the occurrence of the disease. The pseudo R(2) was 0.51 in the final model. CONCLUSIONS The model predicted the number of cases 1 month in advance with more or less acceptable accuracy. Therefore, it appears that the model might be useful as part of an early warning system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ehsan Mostafavi
- Department of Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, Iran
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Abstract
AbstractThe exponential expansion of the human population has led to overexploitation of resources and overproduction of items that have caused a series of potentially devastating effects, including ocean acidification, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, the spread of invasive flora and fauna and climatic changes – along with the emergence of new diseases in animals and humans. Climate change occurs as a result of imbalances between incoming and outgoing radiation in the atmosphere. This process generates heat. As concentrations of atmospheric gases reach record levels, global temperatures are expected to increase significantly. The hydrologic cycle will be altered, since warmer air can retain more moisture than cooler air. This means that some geographic areas will have more rainfall, whereas others have more drought and severe weather. The potential consequences of significant and permanent climatic changes are altered patterns of diseases in animal and human populations, including the emergence of new disease syndromes and changes in the prevalence of existing diseases. A wider geographic distribution of known vectors and the recruitment of new strains to the vector pool could result in infections spreading to more and potentially new species of hosts. If these predictions turn out to be accurate, there will be a need for policymakers to consider alternatives, such as adaptation. This review explores the linkages between climate change and animal diseases, and examines interrelated issues that arise from altered biological dynamics. Its aim is to consider various risks and vulnerabilities and to make the case for policies favoring adaptation.
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Bannister-Tyrrell M, Williams C, Ritchie SA, Rau G, Lindesay J, Mercer G, Harley D. Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012; 88:65-72. [PMID: 23166197 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, and Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
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Azil AH, Li M, Williams CR. Dengue vector surveillance programs: a review of methodological diversity in some endemic and epidemic countries. Asia Pac J Public Health 2012; 23:827-42. [PMID: 22144710 DOI: 10.1177/1010539511426595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Vector surveillance is a cornerstone of dengue management yet there is a diversity of surveillance programs evident internationally. Such diversity is described in this review to enable a broader assessment of dengue vector surveillance methods. This review describes the diversity of surveillance programs for dengue vectors in several endemic and epidemic countries. Furthermore, strengths and weaknesses of vector surveillance methods, including larval surveys, BG-Sentinel trap, and autocidal and sticky ovitraps, are also discussed. The ability to compare and contrast these programs could contribute to the finding of better methods both locally and nationally and facilitate interregional technology transfer. Health authorities in both endemic and epidemic countries alike could benefit from adopting technologies and practices from other regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aishah H Azil
- Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
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Li X, Tao F, You H, Pei T, Gao Y. Factors associated with acute mountain sickness in young Chinese men on entering highland areas. Asia Pac J Public Health 2011; 27:NP116-31. [PMID: 22186404 DOI: 10.1177/1010539511427956] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
AIM The aim of this study was to explore the prediction factors for incidence of acute mountain sickness (AMS) in young males newly entering highland areas. METHODS A retrospective study of 4367 records of male highland soldiers from 2000 to 2005 was done. The factors were tested by logistic regression. RESULTS After selection by univariate model, ethnicity, altitude, season, deployment type, and prophylaxis were inserted into a multivariate model. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.078 for Tibetan compared with Han. AORs for altitudes 3600 to 3700, 4000 to 4300, and 4600 to 4700 m versus 2900 to 3100 m were 4.490, 4.532, and 4.964, respectively. AOR for cold season versus warm season was 1.332. AORs for emergency land deployment and air deployment versus normal land deployment were 2.261 and 1.614, respectively. The AOR was 0.741 for prophylaxis versus none. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.731 (optimal cutoff = 0.370). CONCLUSIONS Adjusting for altitude, risk factors that contributed to AMS were being non-Tibetan, cold season, greater speed of transport, emergency conditions, and without prophylaxis. The model established is acceptable for assisting AMS prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxiao Li
- Department of Health Service, College of High Altitude Military Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, Ministry of Education, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China The Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, PLA, Chongqing, P. R. China
| | - Fasheng Tao
- Urumqi General Hospital of Lanzhou Military District, Urumqi, Xinjiang, P. R. China
| | - Haiyan You
- Department of Health Service, College of High Altitude Military Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, Ministry of Education, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China The Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, PLA, Chongqing, P. R. China
| | - Tao Pei
- Department of Health Service, College of High Altitude Military Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, Ministry of Education, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China The Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, PLA, Chongqing, P. R. China
| | - Yuqi Gao
- Department of Health Service, College of High Altitude Military Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, Ministry of Education, Third Military Medical University, Shapingba District, Chongqing, P. R. China The Key Laboratory of High Altitude Medicine, PLA, Chongqing, P. R. China
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Diouf G, Kpanyen PN, Tokpa AF, Nie S. Changing landscape of malaria in China: progress and feasibility of malaria elimination. Asia Pac J Public Health 2011; 26:93-100. [PMID: 22087038 DOI: 10.1177/1010539511424594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/15/2022]
Abstract
Large-scale malaria control activities in China have been conducted with significant success, since the launch of the nationwide malaria control program. This study investigated the malaria distribution in China, particularly in provinces with high risks. Spatial and temporal data were assembled for all endemic or historically endemic areas and combined to identify common patterns and to investigate the actual changes in the burden of malaria in the country. Data were analyzed and the progress in malaria elimination feasibility was discussed. The results indicated that the current distribution of malaria and vectors associated could provide evidence on the assessment of the feasibility of the malaria elimination in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gorgui Diouf
- 1Huazhong University of Science and Technology, People's Republic of China
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Li S, Tao H, Xu Y. Abiotic Determinants to the Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Fever in Guangzhou. Asia Pac J Public Health 2011; 25:239-47. [DOI: 10.1177/1010539511418819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne disease that significantly endangers the well-being of people in most tropical Asia-Pacific areas. The transmission of DF is inherently a spatial process, requiring susceptible humans encountering infectious mosquito. The relationships between humans, mosquito and environment underpin the dynamics and patterns of the epidemic. In this article, the objective is to find out the key abiotic factors in the spatial dynamics of DF. An interdisciplinary study has been carried out by taking advantage of statistics, geographical information science, and remote sensing technologies. The case study is the DF outbreak in the Chinese city of Guangzhou throughout the year of 2002—the most serious DF outbreak in the recent decade. This study shows that the presence and abundance of DF cases can be associated with ( a) socioeconomic factors relating to urbanization and ( b) meteorological factors favoring mosquito survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Haiyan Tao
- Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Key Laboratory of Tropical Diseases Control (Ministry of Education), Guangzhou, China
| | - Yong Xu
- Center of Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
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Schmidt WP, Suzuki M, Dinh Thiem V, White RG, Tsuzuki A, Yoshida LM, Yanai H, Haque U, Huu Tho L, Anh DD, Ariyoshi K. Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis. PLoS Med 2011; 8:e1001082. [PMID: 21918642 PMCID: PMC3168879 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 130] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2010] [Accepted: 07/19/2011] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wolf-Peter Schmidt
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Motoi Suzuki
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Vu Dinh Thiem
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Richard G. White
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ataru Tsuzuki
- Department of Vector Ecology and Environment, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Lay-Myint Yoshida
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Hideki Yanai
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Ubydul Haque
- Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway
| | - Le Huu Tho
- Khanh Hoa Health Service, Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa, Vietnam
| | - Dang Duc Anh
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Koya Ariyoshi
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Global COE Program, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
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Harley D, Bi P, Hall G, Swaminathan A, Tong S, Williams C. Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia: future prospects, adaptation options, and research priorities. Asia Pac J Public Health 2011; 23:54S-66. [PMID: 21447544 DOI: 10.1177/1010539510391660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Harley
- The Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia.
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Krefis AC, Schwarz NG, Krüger A, Fobil J, Nkrumah B, Acquah S, Loag W, Sarpong N, Adu-Sarkodie Y, Ranft U, May J. Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2011; 84:285-91. [PMID: 21292900 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne Caroline Krefis
- Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany; German Forces at Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.
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Holy M, Schmidt G, Schröder W. Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2011; 18:428-435. [PMID: 20809105 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-010-0388-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2009] [Accepted: 08/15/2010] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Climate warming can change the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproduction and development are accelerated. Lower Saxony (northwestern Germany) has been a malaria region until the 1950s, and the vector species are still present throughout Germany. This gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen was introduced again in Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS The spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions was investigated using the basic reproduction rate (R (0)) to model and geostatistically map areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria based on measured (1961-1990, 1991-2007) and predicted (1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080) monthly mean air temperature data. RESULTS From the computations, maps were derived showing that during the period 1961-1990, the seasonal transmission gate ranges from 0 to 4 months and then expands up to 5 months in the period 1991-2007. For the projection of future trends, the regional climate models REMO and WettReg were used each with two different scenarios (A1B and B1). Both modelling approaches resulted in prolonged seasonal transmission gates in the future, enabling malaria transmissions up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080 (REMO, scenario A1B). DISCUSSION The presented risk prognosis is based on the R (0) formula for the estimation of the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The presented model focuses on mean air temperatures; thus, other driving factors like the distribution of water bodies (breeding habitats) or population density are not integrated. Nevertheless, the modelling presented in this study can help identify areas at risk and initiate prevention. The described findings may also help in the investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including those being dangerous for livestock as well, e.g. insect-borne bluetongue disease transmitted by culicoids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel Holy
- Chair of Landscape Ecology, University of Vechta, PO Box 1553, 49364, Vechta, Germany
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37
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Kim SH, Jang JY. [Correlations between climate change-related infectious diseases and meteorological factors in Korea]. J Prev Med Public Health 2011; 43:436-44. [PMID: 20959714 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.5.436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Infectious diseases are known to be affected by climate change. We investigated if the infectious diseases were related to meteorological factors in Korea. METHODS Scrub typhus, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), leptospirosis, malaria and Vibrio vulnificus sepsis among the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases were selected as the climate change-related infectious diseases. Temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were used as meteorological factors. The study period was from 2001 through 2008. We examined the seasonality of the diseases and those correlations with meteorological factors. We also analyzed the correlations between the incidences of the diseases during the outbreak periods and monthly meteorological factors in the hyper-endemic regions. RESULTS All of the investigated diseases showed strong seasonality; malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis were prevalent in summer and scrub typhus, HFRS and leptospirosis were prevalent in the autumn. There were significant correlations between the monthly numbers of cases and all the meteorological factors for malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis, but there were no correlation for the other diseases. However, the incidence of scrub typhus in hyper-endemic region during the outbreak period was positively correlated with temperature and humidity during the summer. The incidences of HFRS and leptospirosis had positive correlations with precipitation in November and temperature and humidity in February, respectively. V. vulnificus sepsis showed positive correlations with precipitation in April/May/July. CONCLUSIONS In Korea, the incidences of the infectious diseases were correlated with meteorological factors, and this implies that the incidences could be influenced by climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Si Heon Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, Ajou University, Korea
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Wentholt MT, Fischer AR, Rowe G, Marvin HJ, Frewer LJ. Effective identification and management of emerging food risks: Results of an international Delphi survey. Food Control 2010. [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2010.07.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Stresman GH. Beyond temperature and precipitation: ecological risk factors that modify malaria transmission. Acta Trop 2010; 116:167-72. [PMID: 20727338 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2010.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2009] [Revised: 08/06/2010] [Accepted: 08/08/2010] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
Being able to identify the ecological factors that impact risk for malaria would confer important predictive capacity to target malaria control interventions in a community. Temperature and water available for breeding habitats have been shown to be important primary ecological factors that impact the distribution of the malaria vectors and the rate at which the mosquito and parasite develop. However, to this point, studies focusing on the local level have been met with many inconsistent results when assessing malaria risk using both temperature and precipitation. This paper reviewed existing literature to determine if other ecological factors beyond temperature and water are present that may be modifying any associations present between ecological factors and malaria risk. It was found that the ability for water to pool and persist, water quality, elevation, deforestation, and agriculture have all been associated with malaria and may be modifying risk. Using the primary and modifying ecological variables, identifying the interactions between these factors and specific thresholds for increased malaria risk is critical: filling this knowledge gap would enable communities to develop tailored malaria control interventions targeted to their specific circumstances.
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Brisbois BW, Ali SH. Climate change, vector-borne disease and interdisciplinary research: social science perspectives on an environment and health controversy. ECOHEALTH 2010; 7:425-438. [PMID: 21125310 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-010-0354-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2009] [Revised: 07/28/2010] [Accepted: 10/17/2010] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Over the last two decades, the science of climate change's theoretical impacts on vector-borne disease has generated controversy related to its methodological validity and relevance to disease control policy. Critical social science analysis, drawing on science and technology studies and the sociology of social movements, demonstrates consistency between this controversy and the theory that climate change is serving as a collective action frame for some health researchers. Within this frame, vector-borne disease data are interpreted as a symptom of climate change, with the need for further interdisiplinary research put forth as the logical and necessary next step. Reaction to this tendency on the part of a handful of vector-borne disease specialists exhibits characteristics of academic boundary work aimed at preserving the integrity of existing disciplinary boundaries. Possible reasons for this conflict include the leadership role for health professionals and disciplines in the envisioned interdiscipline, and disagreements over the appropriate scale of interventions to control vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the competing frames in this controversy also allows identification of excluded voices and themes, such as international political economic explanations for the health problems in question. A logical conclusion of this analysis, therefore, is the need for critical reflection on environment and health research and policy to achieve integration with considerations of global health equity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben W Brisbois
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, 2206 East Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z3, Canada.
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White PJ, Ward MP, Toribio JAL, Windsor PA. The association between congenital chondrodystrophy of unknown origin (CCUO) in beef cattle and drought in south-eastern Australia. Prev Vet Med 2010; 94:178-84. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2009] [Revised: 02/04/2010] [Accepted: 02/05/2010] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Yang GJ, Utzinger J, Lv S, Qian YJ, Li SZ, Wang Q, Bergquist R, Vounatsou P, Li W, Yang K, Zhou XN. The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS+). ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY 2010; 73:101-35. [DOI: 10.1016/s0065-308x(10)73005-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Wiley LF. Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants. THE JOURNAL OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS : A JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS 2010; 38:629-639. [PMID: 20880245 DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-720x.2010.00516.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well.
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Ady Wirawan M. Public Health Responses to Climate Change Health Impacts in Indonesia. Asia Pac J Public Health 2009; 22:25-31. [DOI: 10.1177/1010539509350912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Although climate change is a global concern, there are particular considerations for Indonesia as an archipelagic nation. These include the vulnerability of people living in small islands and coastal areas to rising sea levels; the expansion of the important mosquito-borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, into areas that lack of immunity; and the increase in water-borne diseases and malnutrition. This article proposes a set of public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia. Some important principles and practices in public health are highlighted, to develop effective public health approaches to climate change in Indonesia.
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Evengård B, Sauerborn R. Climate change influences infectious diseases both in the Arctic and the tropics: joining the dots. Glob Health Action 2009; 2. [PMID: 20052431 PMCID: PMC2799306 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.2106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2009] [Revised: 10/09/2009] [Accepted: 10/09/2009] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Birgitta Evengård
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Division of Infectious Diseases, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
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