1
|
de Freitas DA, Wakimoto MD, Dias S, Souza-Santos R. High-Risk Areas for Congenital Zika Syndrome in Rio de Janeiro: Spatial Cluster Detection. Trop Med Infect Dis 2024; 9:105. [PMID: 38787038 PMCID: PMC11125739 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed9050105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2024] [Revised: 04/16/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Brazil reported 18,282 suspected congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) cases up to 2018 and accounts for 61.4% of the total reported Zika cases in the Americas in the period. To detect high-risk areas for children with CZS in the city of Rio de Janeiro, we used cluster detection and thematic maps. We analyzed data using a Poisson model in Satscan 10.1.3 software. We also analyzed the records of children with CZS from 2015 to 2016 to describe the clinical and epidemiological maternal and child profile, as well as live births in 2016 and the social development index (SDI) by neighborhood. In 2015 and 2016, the incidence rates of CZS were 8.84 and 46.96 per 100,000 live births in the city, respectively. Severe congenital findings such as microcephaly and brain damage, osteoarticular impairment, ocular abnormalities, and hearing loss were observed in 47 children. The spatial distribution of CZS was concentrated in the north and west zones in heterogeneous neighborhoods. The neighborhoods with the highest occurrence of CZS cases were found to have the worst SDIs. Stascan detected three spatial clusters in the north zone, where the SDI is lower. The clusters presented high relative risks for CZS (7.86, 1.46, and 2.08), although they were not statistically significant. Our findings highlight a higher occurrence of CZS in areas with less favorable socioeconomic conditions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Danielle Amaral de Freitas
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rua Leopoldo Bulhões, Rio de Janeiro 1480, RJ, Brazil;
| | - Mayumi Duarte Wakimoto
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Av. Brasil, Rio de Janeiro 4365, RJ, Brazil;
| | - Sónia Dias
- National School of Public Health, Public Health Research Centre, Comprehensive Health Research Center (CHRC), REAL, NOVA University of Lisbon, Avenida Padre Cruz, 1600-560 Lisboa, Portugal;
| | - Reinaldo Souza-Santos
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rua Leopoldo Bulhões, Rio de Janeiro 1480, RJ, Brazil;
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Rimal S, Shrestha S, Pandey K, Nguyen TV, Bhandari P, Shah Y, Acharya D, Adhikari N, Rijal KR, Ghimire P, Takamatsu Y, Pandey BD, Fernandez S, Morita K, Ngwe Tun MM, Dumre SP. Co-Circulation of Dengue Virus Serotypes 1, 2, and 3 during the 2022 Dengue Outbreak in Nepal: A Cross-Sectional Study. Viruses 2023; 15:507. [PMID: 36851721 PMCID: PMC9958792 DOI: 10.3390/v15020507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The largest dengue outbreak in the history of Nepal occurred in 2022, with a significant number of casualties. It affected all 77 districts, with the nation's capital, Kathmandu (altitude 1300 m), being the hardest hit. However, the molecular epidemiology of this outbreak, including the dengue virus (DENV) serotype(s) responsible for this epidemic, remain unknown. Here, we report the epidemic trends, clinico-laboratory features, and virus serotypes and their viral load profiles that are associated with this outbreak in Nepal. Dengue-suspected febrile patients were investigated by routine laboratory, serological, and molecular tools, including a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Of the 538 dengue-suspected patients enrolled, 401 (74.5%) were diagnosed with dengue. Among these dengue cases, 129 (32.2%) patients who required hospital admission had significant associations with myalgia, rash, diarrhea, retro-orbital pain, bleeding, and abdominal pain. DENV-1, -2, and -3 were identified during the 2022 epidemic, with a predominance of DENV-1 (57.1%) and DENV-3 (32.1%), exhibiting a new serotype addition. We found that multiple serotypes circulated in 2022, with a higher frequency of hospitalizations, more severe dengue, and more deaths than in the past. Therefore, precise mapping of dengue and other related infections through integrated disease surveillance, evaluation of the dynamics of population-level immunity and virus evolution should be the urgent plans of action for evidence-based policy-making for dengue control and prevention in the country.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sandesh Rimal
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Sabin Shrestha
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Kishor Pandey
- Central Department of Zoology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Thanh Vu Nguyen
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Allience, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
| | - Parmananda Bhandari
- Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Diseases Hospital, Teku, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | | | - Dhiraj Acharya
- Cleveland Clinic, Florida Research and Innovation Center, Port Saint Lucie, FL 34987, USA
| | - Nabaraj Adhikari
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Komal Raj Rijal
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Prakash Ghimire
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| | - Yuki Takamatsu
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Allience, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
| | - Basu Dev Pandey
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), Bangkok 10400, Thailand
| | - Kouichi Morita
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Allience, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
| | - Mya Myat Ngwe Tun
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Allience, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
| | - Shyam Prakash Dumre
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44601, Nepal
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Yang QL, Zhang SW, Qiu SY, Zhang Q, Chen Q, Niu B. Spatio-temporal and trade export risk analysis of bluetongue disease in France: A case study of China. Front Vet Sci 2022; 9:955366. [PMID: 36406078 PMCID: PMC9669432 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2022.955366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Bluetongue disease (BT) is a viral disease that can be introduced through imported animals and animal products, affecting local animal husbandry. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of BT outbreaks (outbreak: a BT infection in cattle, sheep, or goats on a farm, involving at least one infected animal) in France were analyzed and the risk of introducing bluetongue virus (BTV) into countries through trade was assessed. A spatiotemporal analysis of BT reported during the study period (2015-2018) showed that there were clustered outbreaks of BT in France in 2016 and 2017, with outbreaks concentrated from August to December. The outbreak moved eastward from the center of mainland France to surrounding countries. A semi-quantitative risk analysis framework was established by combining the likelihood assessment and consequence analysis of introducing BTV into trading countries through trade. Exemplified by China, the research showed that in the analysis of the likelihood of BTV from France being introduced into trading countries through live cattle trade, China imports a large number of live cattle, bringing high risks. The likelihood of introducing bovine semen into trading countries was similar to that of live cattle, but the harm caused by the trade in live cattle was higher than that caused by the trade in bovine semen. This risk analysis framework can provide a reference for other countries to quickly assess the risk of bluetongue transmission in import and export trade.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qiao-ling Yang
- School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China,School of Life Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
| | - Shu-wen Zhang
- School of Life Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
| | - Song-yin Qiu
- Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Technology Center of Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine, Shanghai, China
| | - Qin Chen
- School of Life Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China,*Correspondence: Qin Chen
| | - Bing Niu
- School of Life Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China,Bing Niu
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Phuyal P, Kramer IM, Kuch U, Magdeburg A, Groneberg DA, Lamichhane Dhimal M, Montag D, Harapan H, Wouters E, Jha AK, Dhimal M, Müller R. The knowledge, attitude and practice of community people on dengue fever in Central Nepal: a cross-sectional study. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:454. [PMID: 35549884 PMCID: PMC9096776 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07404-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Since 2006, Nepal has experienced frequent Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks. Up to now, there have been no knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) studies carried out on DF in Nepal that have included qualitative in-depth and quantitative data. Thus, we aimed to explore and compare the KAP of people residing in the lowland (< 1500 m) and highland (> 1500 m) areas of Nepal.
Methods A cross-sectional mixed-method study was conducted in six districts of central Nepal in September–October 2018 including both quantitative (660 household surveys) and qualitative data (12 focus group discussions and 27 in-depth interviews). The KAP assessment was executed using a scoring system and defined as high or low based on 80% cut-off point. Logistic regression was used to investigate the associated factors, in quantitative analysis. The deductive followed by inductive approach was adopted to identify the themes in the qualitative data. Results The study revealed that both the awareness about DF and prevention measures were low. Among the surveyed participants, 40.6% had previously heard about DF with a significantly higher number in the lowland areas. Similarly, IDI and FGD participants from the lowland areas were aware about DF, and it’s associated symptoms, hence they were adopting better preventive practices against DF. The findings of both the qualitative and quantitative data indicate that people residing in the lowland areas had better knowledge on DF compared to people in highland areas. All IDI participants perceived a higher chance of increasing future dengue outbreaks due to increasing temperature and the mobility of infected people from endemic to non-endemic areas. The most quoted sources of information were the television (71.8%) and radio (51.5%). Overall, only 2.3% of the HHS participants obtained high knowledge scores, 74.1% obtained high attitude scores and 21.2% obtained high preventive practice scores on DF. Among the socio-demographic variables, the area of residence, educational level, age, monthly income, SES and occupation were independent predictors of knowledge level, while the education level of the participants was an independent predictor of the attitude level. Conclusions Our study found a very low level of knowledge and insufficient preventive practices. This highlights an urgent need for extensive dengue prevention programs in both highland and lowland communities of Nepal. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07404-4.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Parbati Phuyal
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. .,Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
| | - Isabelle Marie Kramer
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Ulrich Kuch
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Axel Magdeburg
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - David A Groneberg
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal
- Policy Research Institute (PRI), Kathmandu, Nepal.,Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies (GIIS), Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Doreen Montag
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Harapan Harapan
- Medical Research Unit, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia.,Tropical Disease Centre, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia.,Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
| | - Edwin Wouters
- Department of Sociology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | - Meghnath Dhimal
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Ruth Müller
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.,Unit Entomology, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Tang H, Tang W, An X, Lu Z, Jia Z. Tracking the Trend of Ketamine Use in China During 2010–2015: a Retrospective Observational Study. Int J Ment Health Addict 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s11469-021-00741-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
|
6
|
Essa M, Taj MA, Khan MH, Amjad Bashir M, Farooq H, Alajmi RA, Hashem M, Alamri S, El-Zohri MA, Ullah K. Awareness and perception of malaria and dengue at school and college level in the district of Multan. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0260868. [PMID: 35143507 PMCID: PMC8830651 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 11/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the awareness and perception of malaria and dengue fever in Multan Punjab, Pakistan while taking into account the important role of government policies and other variables. The goal of this study is to examine the awareness of students in Multan, Pakistan on malaria and dengue. This study is based on a quantitative approach of secondary evidence from scientific journals and questionnaire surveys. It is also based on observational evidence gathered in Multan Punjab Pakistan, in a field study. The survey with school children, teachers and healthcare professionals were both formal and semi-structuralize. Studies have found that malaria and dengue mainly affect children's schooling through their absence, but can also induce brain loss and cognitive disability. In questionnaires, students were seen to have different understanding of the illness, but also to be able to serve as agents of health reform only through teachers. A sample size of 500 respondents has been selected from different colleges of district Multan Punjab, Pakistan. Correlation technique is used for the data analysis. According to our results it is concluded that the students at college level are aware of malaria and dengue diseases, but they are not capable of engaging and serving as agents for health reform. On the basis of results it is recommended that students must teach about epidemics diseases regarding how to handle these diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Essa
- Medical Officer Basic Health Unit, Health Department, Talpur Kot Chuta Dera Ghazi Khan, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Ahmed Taj
- Health Department, Rural Health Center 222EB, District Vehari, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Hakim Khan
- Medical Officer Rural Health Unit, Health Department, Kalur Kot, District Bakhar, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Amjad Bashir
- Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ghazi University, Dera Ghazi Khan, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Hasnain Farooq
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, United States of America
- Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ghazi University, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan
| | - Reem A. Alajmi
- Zoology Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabi
| | - Mohamed Hashem
- Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | - Saad Alamri
- Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | - Manal A. El-Zohri
- Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | - Kaleem Ullah
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Sciences, Ghazi University, Dera Ghazi Khan, Punjab, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Yin Z, Huang W, Ying S, Tang P, Kang Z, Huang K. Measuring of the COVID-19 Based on Time-Geography. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph181910313. [PMID: 34639612 PMCID: PMC8507668 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Revised: 09/20/2021] [Accepted: 09/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic began to emerge on a global scale, including China, and left deep traces on all societies. The spread of this virus shows remarkable temporal and spatial characteristics. Therefore, analyzing and visualizing the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic are relevant to the current pressing need and have realistic significance. In this article, we constructed a new model based on time-geography to analyze the movement pattern of COVID-19 in Hebei Province. The results show that as time changed COVID-19 presented an obvious dynamic distribution in space. It gradually migrated from the southwest region of Hebei Province to the northeast region. The factors affecting the moving patterns may be the migration and flow of population between and within the province, the economic development level and the development of road traffic of each city. It can be divided into three stages in terms of time. The first stage is the gradual spread of the epidemic, the second is the full spread of the epidemic, and the third is the time and again of the epidemic. Finally, we can verify the accuracy of the model through the standard deviation ellipse and location entropy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhangcai Yin
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; (Z.Y.); (P.T.); (Z.K.); (K.H.)
| | - Wei Huang
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; (Z.Y.); (P.T.); (Z.K.); (K.H.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Shen Ying
- School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430070, China;
| | - Panli Tang
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; (Z.Y.); (P.T.); (Z.K.); (K.H.)
| | - Ziqiang Kang
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; (Z.Y.); (P.T.); (Z.K.); (K.H.)
| | - Kuan Huang
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; (Z.Y.); (P.T.); (Z.K.); (K.H.)
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Phuyal P, Kramer IM, Klingelhöfer D, Kuch U, Madeburg A, Groneberg DA, Wouters E, Dhimal M, Müller R. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Dengue and Chikungunya in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E6656. [PMID: 32932665 PMCID: PMC7560004 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 09/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The risk of increasing dengue (DEN) and chikungunya (CHIK) epidemics impacts 240 million people, health systems, and the economy in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The aim of this systematic review is to monitor trends in the distribution and spread of DEN/CHIK over time and geographically for future reliable vector and disease control in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on the spatiotemporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH published up to 23 January 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, we found 61 articles that focused on the spatial and temporal distribution of 72,715 DEN and 2334 CHIK cases in the HKH region from 1951 to 2020. DEN incidence occurs in seven HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, and CHIK occurs in four HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, out of eight HKH countries. DEN is highly seasonal and starts with the onset of the monsoon (July in India and June in Nepal) and with the onset of spring (May in Bhutan) and peaks in the postmonsoon season (September to November). This current trend of increasing numbers of both diseases in many countries of the HKH region requires coordination of response efforts to prevent and control the future expansion of those vector-borne diseases to nonendemic areas, across national borders.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Parbati Phuyal
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, University of Antwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Isabelle Marie Kramer
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
| | - Doris Klingelhöfer
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
| | - Ulrich Kuch
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
| | - Axel Madeburg
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
| | - David A. Groneberg
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
| | - Edwin Wouters
- Department of Sociology, University of Antwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium;
| | - Meghnath Dhimal
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
- Health Research Section, Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | - Ruth Müller
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60590 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; (I.M.K.); (D.K.); (U.K.); (A.M.); (D.A.G.); (M.D.); (R.M.)
- Unit Entomology, Institute of Tropical Medicine, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Liu D, Guo S, Zou M, Chen C, Deng F, Xie Z, Hu S, Wu L. A dengue fever predicting model based on Baidu search index data and climate data in South China. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0226841. [PMID: 31887118 PMCID: PMC6936853 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2019] [Accepted: 12/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
With the acceleration of global urbanization and climate change, dengue fever is spreading worldwide. Different levels of dengue fever have also occurred in China, especially in southern China, causing enormous economic losses. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment for dengue, and the most popular dengue vaccine does not exhibit good curative effects. Therefore, we developed a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) that gathered climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) and Baidu search data during 2011-2015 in Guangzhou city to improve the accuracy of dengue fever prediction. Firstly, the time series dengue fever data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components by the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Secondly, the time lag of variables was determined in cross-correlation analysis and the order of autocorrelation was estimated using autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF). Finally, the GAMM was built and evaluated by comparing it with Generalized Additive Mode (GAM). Experimental results indicated that the GAMM (R2: 0.95 and RMSE: 34.1) has a superior prediction capability than GAM (R2: 0.86 and RMSE: 121.9). The study could help the government agencies and hospitals respond early to dengue fever outbreak.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dan Liu
- School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Songjing Guo
- School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Mingjun Zou
- School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Cong Chen
- School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Fei Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Zhong Xie
- School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
- National Engineering Research Center for GIS, Wuhan, China
| | - Sheng Hu
- School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Liang Wu
- School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
- National Engineering Research Center for GIS, Wuhan, China
- * E-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Acharya BK, Cao C, Lakes T, Chen W, Naeem S, Pandit S. Modeling the spatially varying risk factors of dengue fever in Jhapa district, Nepal, using the semi-parametric geographically weighted regression model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:1973-1986. [PMID: 30182200 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1601-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2017] [Revised: 07/31/2018] [Accepted: 08/13/2018] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Dengue fever is expanding rapidly in many tropical and subtropical countries since the last few decades. However, due to limited research, little is known about the spatial patterns and associated risk factors on a local scale particularly in the newly emerged areas. In this study, we explored spatial patterns and evaluated associated potential environmental and socioeconomic risk factors in the distribution of dengue fever incidence in Jhapa district, Nepal. Global and local Moran's I were used to assess global and local clustering patterns of the disease. The ordinary least square (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and semi-parametric geographically weighted regression (s-GWR) models were compared to describe spatial relationship of potential environmental and socioeconomic risk factors with dengue incidence. Our result revealed heterogeneous and highly clustered distribution of dengue incidence in Jhapa district during the study period. The s-GWR model best explained the spatial association of potential risk factors with dengue incidence and was used to produce the predictive map. The statistical relationship between dengue incidence and proportion of urban area, proximity to road, and population density varied significantly among the wards while the associations of land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remained constant spatially showing importance of mixed geographical modeling approach (s-GWR) in the spatial distribution of dengue fever. This finding could be used in the formulation and execution of evidence-based dengue control and management program to allocate scare resources locally.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bipin Kumar Acharya
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.19A Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - ChunXiang Cao
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100094, China.
| | - Tobia Lakes
- Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Wei Chen
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100094, China
| | - Shahid Naeem
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.19A Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049, China
| | | |
Collapse
|