Epidemiological Characteristics of Pancreatic Cancer in China From 1990 to 2019

Integrated chromosomal instability and tumor microbiome redefined prognosis-related subtypes of pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is a common malignancy with poor prognosis and limited treatment. Here we aimed to investigate the role of host chromosomal instability (CIN) and tumor microbiome in the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients.

METHODS

One hundred formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) pancreatic cancer samples were collected. DNA extracted from FFPE samples were analyzed by low-coverage whole-genome sequencing (WGS) via a customized bioinformatics workflow named ultrasensitive chromosomal aneuploidy detector.

RESULTS

Samples are tested according to the procedure of ultrasensitive chromosomal aneuploidy detector (UCAD). We excluded 2 samples with failed quality control, 1 patient lost to follow-up and 6 dead in the perioperative period. The final 91 patients were admitted for the following analyses. Thirteen (14.3%) patients with higher CIN score had worse overall survival (OS) than those with lower CIN score. The top 20 microbes in pancreatic cancer samples included 15 species of bacteria and 5 species of viruses. Patients with high human herpesvirus (HHV)-7 and HHV-5 DNA reads exhibited worse OS. Furthermore, we classified 91 patients into 3 subtypes. Patients with higher CIN score (n =13) had the worst prognosis (median OS 6.9 mon); patients with lower CIN score but with HHV-7/5 DNA load (n = 24) had worse prognosis (median OS 10.6 mon); while patients with lower CIN score and HHV-7/5 DNA negative (n = 54) had the best prognosis (median OS 21.1 mon).

CONCLUSIONS

High CIN and HHV-7/5 DNA load were associated with worse survival of pancreatic cancer. The novel molecular subtypes of pancreatic cancer based on CIN and microbiome had prognostic value.

Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied.

METHOD

Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030.

RESULTS

Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels.

CONCLUSION

Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.

Mortality and years of life lost due to pancreatic cancer in China, its provinces, urban and rural areas from 2005 to 2020: results from the national mortality surveillance system

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is a growing public health concern in China, and depicting it from different perspectives would provide a comprehensive understanding of its epidemiological characteristics.

METHODS

Data from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China was used to estimate the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized YLL rate in China, its provinces and urban-rural areas from 2005 to 2020. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to explore the temporal trends of ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate. Decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the contribution of population growth, population aging and cause-specific mortality rate to the increment of pancreatic cancer deaths.

RESULTS

A total of 100,427 pancreatic cancer deaths and 2,166,355 pancreatic cancer related YLL were estimated in China in 2020. The overall ASMR significantly increased from 6.6/100 000 in 2005 to 7.4/100 000 in 2020, and was higher in men than that in women. Age-standardized YLL rate showed a similar trend. The mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were generally higher in northeast China than in southwest China. The highest ASMRs were found in Jilin, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and Anhui, and the lowest ones in Guangxi, Yunnan, Tibet, and Hainan. The disease burden due to pancreatic cancer presented a significant upward trend in rural areas and a downward trend in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden associated with pancreatic cancer had been increasing in China from 2005 to 2020. The escalating disease burden of pancreatic cancer in rural areas necessitates the implementation of effective control and prevention measures. Relevant provinces should pay greater attention to the prevailing of pancreatic cancer, particularly those exhibiting higher mortality rates.

Identification of a lncRNA based signature for pancreatic cancer survival to predict immune landscape and potential therapeutic drugs

Pancreatic cancer is one major digestive malignancy with a poor prognosis. Given the clinical importance of lncRNAs, developing a novel molecular panel with lncRNAs for pancreatic cancer has great potential. As a result, an 8-lncRNA-based robust prognostic signature was constructed using a random survival forest model after examing the expression profile and prognostic significance of lncRNAs in the PAAD cohort from TCGA. The efficacy and effectiveness of the lncRNA-based signature were thoroughly assessed. Patients with high- and low-risk defined by the signature underwent significantly distinct OS expectancy. Most crucially the training group’s AUCs of ROC approached 0.90 and the testing group similarly had the AUCs above 0.86. The lncRNA-based signature was shown to behave as a prognostic indicator of pancreatic cancer, either alone or simultaneously with other factors, after combined analysis with other clinical-pathological factors in Cox regression and nomogram. Additionally, using GSEA and CIBERSORT scoring methods, the immune landscape and variations in biological processes between high- and low-risk subgroups were investigated. Last but not least, drug databases were searched for prospective therapeutic molecules targeting high-risk patients. The most promising compound were Afatinib, LY-303511, and RO-90-7501 as a result. In conclusion, we developed a novel lncRNA based prognostic signature with high efficacy to stratify high-risk pancreatic cancer patients and screened prospective responsive drugs for targeting strategy.

The systematic analysis and 10-year prediction on disease burden of childhood cancer in China

Background

There is a lack of in-depth analysis regarding the disease burden of childhood cancer in China. Indeed, this is the first time the topic has been addressed in detail. Drawing on population-based data for the past 30 years, this study systematically analyzes the composition and long-term trend of this disease burden in China.

Methods

GBD 2019 contained population-based data from 1990 to 2019 and was prepared using Microsoft Excel 2016. We used AAPC and ARIMA models for trend analysis and prediction formulation.

Results

In 2019, there were 45,601 new cases, 9,156 cancer deaths, and 782,530 DALYs in China. From 1990 to 2019, leukemia, together with brain and CNS cancer, invariably ranked highest in terms of new cases, cancer deaths, and DALYs. Leukemia accounted for more than 50%, but decreased over time. By contrast, the proportions for brain and CNS cancer increased. There were significant decreases in the overall incidence, mortality, and DALY rates in China, but these were still higher than the corresponding global average levels. Considering all types of childhood cancer, the incidence rate of testicular cancer showed the biggest increase, and the mortality and DALY rates of leukemia showed the largest decrease. In terms of different age groups, the overall incidence rate of childhood cancers increased in 0 to 4 age group, but it decreased in 5 to 14 age groups. The overall mortality and DALY rates of childhood cancers decreased in all four age groups. Over the next 10 years, the overall incidence rate of childhood cancer will increase, but the overall mortality and DALY rates will decrease. The increase in malignant skin melanoma will comprise the largest rise in the incidence, while the decrease for leukemia will be the largest fall in the incidence, cancer deaths, and DALYs.

Conclusion

The disease burden of all childhood cancers in China remains highly serious, especially for certain types of cancer and certain age groups. China should focus more emphatically on the incidence of childhood cancer in future, and it must consistently strengthen investment in the relevant research and medical resources to reduce the disease burden in this field.

International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

AIM

To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality.

RESULTS

A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4–12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5–9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

The Association between Serum Serine and Glycine and Related-Metabolites with Pancreatic Cancer in a Prospective Cohort Study

Background. Serine and glycine play an important role in the folate-dependent one-carbon metabolism. The metabolism of serine and glycine has been shown to be associated with cancer cell proliferation. No prior epidemiologic study has investigated the associations for serum levels of serine and glycine with pancreatic cancer risk. Methods. We conducted a nested case-control study involved 129 incident pancreatic cancer cases and 258 individually matched controls within a prospective cohort study of 18,244 male residents in Shanghai, China. Glycine and serine and related metabolites in pre-diagnostic serum were quantified using gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. A conditional logistic regression method was used to evaluate the associations for serine, glycine, and related metabolites with pancreatic cancer risk with adjustment for potential confounders. Results: Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of pancreatic cancer for the highest quartile of serine and glycine were 0.33 (0.14−0.75) and 0.25 (0.11−0.58), respectively, compared with their respective lowest quartiles (both p’s < 0.01). No significant association with risk of pancreatic cancer was observed for other serine- or glycine related metabolites including cystathionine, cysteine, and sarcosine. Conclusion. The risk of pancreatic cancer was reduced by more than 70% in individuals with elevated levels of glycine and serine in serum collected, on average, more than 10 years prior to cancer diagnosis in a prospectively designed case-control study. These novel findings support a protective role of serine and glycine against the development of pancreatic cancer in humans that might have an implication for cancer prevention.