Conceptual, methodological, and ethical problems in communicating uncertainty in clinical evidence

Laypersons' understanding of statistical concepts commonly used in prescription drug promotion: A review of the research literature

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising for prescription drugs has led to concerns about how consumers interpret the medical information conveyed in these ads. One strategy for improving lay understanding of medical information involves incorporating quantitative information about a treatment's potential benefits and risks.

OBJECTIVE

This literature review investigates laypersons' interpretations of statistical concepts, expanding on past reviews and including terms that may be used in DTC prescription drug advertising.

METHODS

We searched six databases for articles published from January 2000 to October 2021. Articles were included if they were in English and examined general or lay audiences' comprehension of quantitative or statistical concepts, without limiting the context of the studies to medical situations.

RESULTS

We identified 25 eligible articles. The evidence suggests that likelihood ratios, odds ratios, probabilities, numbers needed to treat/harm, and confidence intervals hinder comprehension of quantitative information. The results are mixed for information presented as frequencies, percentages, absolute risk reduction, and relative risk reduction. The mixed findings could be due to numeracy, framing as risks or benefits, and operationalization of the outcomes. We found no studies examining interpretations of minimum, maximum, central tendency, power, statistical significance, or hazard ratio.

CONCLUSION

Studies spanning several decades have examined how laypeople interpret statistical concepts. While a few terms are consistently studied, many questions still remain on how to make risk information more understandable to lay audiences, particularly those with low numeracy.

Readiness for HIV Postexposure Prophylaxis (PEP) Decision Making Following Sexual Violence

HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) can reduce the risk of acquiring HIV infection following sexual assault. However, only about half of people offered HIV PEP will initiate the medication. Factors associated with patient readiness for HIV PEP following sexual assault have been attributed to structural and clinical barriers. This study utilized the Theory of Reasoned Action and Planned Behavior to better understand how personal factors, cognitive factors, mental health, barriers and facilitators that could influence a patient's decision to start HIV PEP post sexual assault. A web-based cross sectional survey was conducted from October 2017 to January 2020 and a total of 228 responses were included from participants that had experienced sexual assault in the previous 3 months. Using linear regression modeling fear of HIV, post-traumatic stress symptoms, validating social responses to disclosure, and having someone else pay for HIV PEP were all associated with feeling better prepared for HIV PEP decision making. Results indicate that structural, social, and individual factors impact patient decision making. These findings highlight opportunities for health systems and providers to improve HIV education and the importance of initiating HIV PEP following sexual assault.

Is learning being supported when information is provided to informal carers during inpatient stroke rehabilitation? A qualitative study

PURPOSE

To explore how health professionals provide information to informal carers during inpatient stroke rehabilitation and whether these practices align with adult learning principles.

METHODS

Informal carers and survivors of stroke who had completed inpatient rehabilitation, and health professionals working in inpatient stroke rehabilitation were interviewed. Directed qualitative content analysis was conducted using an adult learning model, to determine how closely reported practices aligned to adult learning principles.

RESULTS

14 carers, 6 survivors of stroke and 17 health professionals participated. Carers (79% female, 57% spouse/partner) reported having incomplete knowledge during rehabilitation, lacking information about mechanisms of stroke recovery, rehabilitation processes, long-term effects of stroke, and navigating post-discharge services. Health professionals supported carers to address their learning needs related to safety of caring for stroke survivors. Carers indicated they were responsible for their own non-safety related learning. Health professionals tended not to check carers' understanding of information provided nor offer learning opportunities beyond written or verbal information.

CONCLUSIONS

Health professionals consistently provide certain information to carers during inpatient rehabilitation, but adult learning principles are not routinely applied when information is provided. Fostering adult learning among informal carers may improve preparedness of carers to support stroke survivors after discharge from inpatient rehabilitation.

Communicating scientific uncertainty in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: A message experiment

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. It was a time of significant uncertainty as experts were not yet certain whether social distancing behaviors were necessary to slow the spread of the virus. Some public communicators opted to acknowledge uncertainty based on the limited evidence, whereas others downplayed uncertainty. This situation provided researchers with an opportunity to advance theory by explicating and testing cognitive responses to message uncertainty. Immediately following the WHO declaration (March 13-19, 2020), U.S. adults (N = 1186) were randomly assigned to one of six conditions in a 2 (message uncertainty: low, high) × 3 (argument support: expert, threat, precedent) between-participants experiment. Overall, perceived uncertainty negatively mediated the impact of message uncertainty on intentions. However, participant education was a key moderator. For those with more than a high school education, uncertain messages were related to higher intentions to social distance through increased critical reflection. For those with a high school education or less, uncertain messages were related to lower intentions through decreased message credibility.

Attitudes toward uncertain results from prenatal exome sequencing: a national survey among healthcare professionals working in the prenatal setting

Objective

The objective of this study was to investigate the attitudes of healthcare professionals (HPs) working in the prenatal setting toward uncertain results (UR) from prenatal exome sequencing (pES) in China.

Methods

We conducted a national survey among HPs working in the prenatal setting. UR in our study include variants of uncertain significance (VUS), variants with variable penetrance/expressivity (VVPE), and secondary findings unrelated to the indication for testing (SFs). A total of 285 questionnaires that met the inclusion criteria were collected. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics 26.

Results

When performing the pre-test counseling, only 7.4% of HPs mentioned the possibility of VUS, 6.3% discussed the possibility of VVPE, and 7.4% introduced the SFs with parents with the option to not report these variants. In post-test counseling, 73.0-82.8% HPs discussed with the parents but did not make any recommendations for managing the pregnancy after reporting UR (73.0% for VUS, 82.8% for VVPE, 74.7% for SFs, respectively).

Conclusion

Most parents did not have the option of opting out of reporting UR from pES in pre-test counseling. UR did not influence the pregnancy recommendation made by most HPs. Establishing national guidelines for reporting UR from pES and developing strategies to improve counseling skills may help HPs manage UR.

How and why do doctors communicate diagnostic uncertainty: An experimental vignette study

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic uncertainty is common, but its communication to patients is under-explored. This study aimed to (1) characterise variation in doctors' communication of diagnostic uncertainty and (2) explore why variation occurred.

METHODS

Four written vignettes of clinical scenarios involving diagnostic uncertainty were developed. Doctors were recruited from five hospitals until theoretical saturation was reached (n = 36). Participants read vignettes in a randomised order, and were asked to discuss the diagnosis/plan with an online interviewer, as they would with a 'typical patient'. Semi-structured interviews explored reasons for communication choices. Interview transcripts were coded; quantitative and qualitative (thematic) analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

There was marked variation in doctors' communication: in their discussion about differential diagnoses, their reference to the level of uncertainty in diagnoses/investigations and their acknowledgement of diagnostic uncertainty when safety-netting. Implicit expressions of uncertainty were more common than explicit. Participants expressed both different communication goals (including reducing patient anxiety, building trust, empowering patients and protecting against diagnostic errors) and different perspectives on how to achieve these goals. Training in diagnostic uncertainty communication is rare, but many felt it would be useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant variation in diagnostic uncertainty communication exists, even in a controlled setting. Differing communication goals-often grounded in conflicting ethical principles, for example, respect for autonomy versus nonmaleficence-and differing ideas on how to prioritise and achieve them may underlie this. The variation in communication behaviours observed has important implications for patient safety and health inequalities. Patient-focused research is required to guide practice.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

In the design stage of the study, two patient and public involvement groups (consisting of members of the public of a range of ages and backgrounds) were consulted to gain an understanding of patient perspectives on the concept of communicating diagnostic uncertainty. Their feedback informed the formulations of the research questions and the choice of vignettes used.

Exploring uncertainties regarding unsolicited findings in genetic testing

OBJECTIVES

Non-normative uncertainty (uncertainty about empirical facts) and normative uncertainty (uncertainty about moral values or beliefs) regarding unsolicited findings (UFs) might play an important role in clinical genetics. Identifying normative uncertainty is of special interest since it might guide towards novel directions for counseling practice. This study aims to gain insight into the role of non-normative and normative uncertainty regarding UFs, as expressed by counselees and counselors.

METHODS

We performed a secondary qualitative analysis of interviews with counselees (n = 20) and counselors (n = 20) who had been confronted with UFs. Following a deductive approach, we used Han et al.'s existing theoretical framework of uncertainty, in which we additionally incorporated normative uncertainty.

RESULTS

Major issues of non-normative uncertainty were practical and personal for counselees, whilst counselors' uncertainty pertained mainly to scientific issues. Normative uncertainty was a major theme throughout the interviews. We encountered the moral conflicts of autonomy vs. beneficence and non-maleficence and of autonomy vs. truthfulness.

CONCLUSION

Non-normative uncertainty regarding UFs highlights the need to gain more insight in their penetrance and clinical utility. This study suggests moral conflicts are a major source of feelings of uncertainty in clinical genetics.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Exploring counselees' non-normative uncertainties and normative conflicts seems a prerequisite to optimize genetic counseling.

Creating and administering video vignettes for a study examining the communication of diagnostic uncertainty: methodological insights to improve accessibility for researchers and participants

BACKGROUND

Studying clinician-patient communication can be challenging, particularly when research seeks to explore cause-and-effect relationships. Video vignettes - hypothetical yet realistic scenarios - offer advantages to traditional observational approaches by enabling standardisation and manipulation of a clinician-patient encounter for assessment by participants. While published guidelines outline stages to create valid video vignette studies, constructing high quality vignettes which are accessible to a wide range of participants and feasible to produce within time and budget restraints remains challenging. Here, we outline our methods in creating valid video vignettes to study the communication of diagnostic uncertainty. We aim to provide practically useful recommendations for future researchers, and to prompt further reflection on accessibility issues in video vignette methodology.

METHODS

We produced four video vignettes for use in an online study examining the communication of diagnostic uncertainty. We followed established guidelines for vignette production, with specific consideration of how these might be applied pragmatically to save time and resources. Scripts were pilot-tested with 15 laypeople, and videos with 14 laypeople; pilot-testing involved both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We demonstrate the usefulness of existing guidelines, while also determining that vignette production need not necessarily be expensive or time-consuming to be valid. Our vignettes were filmed using an iPhone camera, and featured a physician rather than a professional actor; nonetheless, pilot-testing found them to be internally and externally valid for experimental use. We thus propose that if care is taken in initial script development and if pragmatic choices are made regarding filming techniques and pilot-testing, researchers can produce valid vignettes within reasonable time and budget restraints. We also suggest that existing research fails to critically examine the potential benefits and harms of online video vignette methodology, and propose that further research should consider how it can be adapted to be inclusive of those from underserved backgrounds.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers creating video vignette studies can adapt the video vignette development process to suit time and budget constraints, and to make best use of available technology. Online methods may be harnessed to increase participant accessibility, but future research should explore more inclusive vignette design.

Measurement of uncertainty tolerance revisited

INTRODUCTION

Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is attracting increasing attention in medical education due to the numerous challenges associated with uncertainty in professional life. Inconsistencies in analysing the relationship between UT and moderators may arise from inadequate measurement methods. Most instruments were formulated before the most widely accepted framework was published. Our aim was to investigate the validity of an UT scale using an actual framework to corroborate with better and accurate instruments.

METHODS

A total of 1052 students were invited. Various psychometric methods were used to explore validity of the TAMSAD scale in light of actual framework. Classic exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed. Secondly, content item classification was triangulated with exploratory graph analysis (EGA), and the new EFA, CFA, and cognitive diagnostic modelling (CDM) analysis were conducted. The reliability was calculated using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega.

RESULTS

A total of 694 students (65.9%) responded to the questionnaire. The reliability of the TAMSAD scale was 0.782. The initial EFA revealed no clear interpretable dimensions. The TAMSAD scale items can be classified into sources of uncertainty. The EGA has three dimensions, and the new EFA led to a 17-item TAMSAD scale with the following three dimensions: ambiguity, complexity, and probability. These dimensions lead to better adjustment fit indices in the new CFA and CDM analyses.

CONCLUSION

We found evidence that the TAMSAD scale can be considered a multidimensional scale, organised in terms of sources of uncertainty.

"I felt uncertain about my whole future"-a qualitative investigation of people's experiences of navigating uncertainty when seeking care for their low back pain

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty pervades low back pain (LBP). This study aimed to explore individuals' experiences of navigating uncertainty when seeking care for their LBP, with a view to better understanding the contexts in which they experience uncertainty and gaining insight into how uncertainty may be better navigated during clinical encounters. We conducted 15 semistructured interviews with people who have experienced LBP. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Analysis produced 4 themes. To reflect the unsettled nature of participants' discussions of navigating uncertainty, themes are framed as questions: (1) What will happen over time?; (2) Can clinicians help me? Are they willing to?; (3) What are clinicians talking about?; and (4) Am I being taken seriously? Participants also discussed how clinicians could better navigate these uncertainties. Suggestions included making time to (actively) listen to, and acknowledge, patients' concerns; asking open-ended questions; being honest about uncertainty; creating management plans and returning to them; challenging assumptions; remaining curious about patients' context; and providing guidance on how to manage LBP rather than simply giving certainty that symptoms will worsen, lessen, or continue. These findings indicate that many of the uncertainties individuals with LBP experience are intertwined with relational aspects of their interactions with clinicians. Clinicians therefore may need to consider these broader and relational aspects of care when navigating uncertainty with people who experience LBP, bringing attention to the importance of drawing from knowledge produced outside of the usual hierarchy of evidence (eg, systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials).

Probability and informed consent

In this paper, we illustrate some serious difficulties involved in conveying information about uncertain risks and securing informed consent for risky interventions in a clinical setting. We argue that in order to secure informed consent for a medical intervention, physicians often need to do more than report a bare, numerical probability value. When probabilities are given, securing informed consent generally requires communicating how probability expressions are to be interpreted and communicating something about the quality and quantity of the evidence for the probabilities reported. Patients may also require guidance on how probability claims may or may not be relevant to their decisions, and physicians should be ready to help patients understand these issues.

Opportunities and Challenges of Prognostic Models for Extremely Preterm Infants

Predicting the short- and long-term outcomes of extremely preterm infants remains a challenge. Multivariable prognostic models might be valuable tools for clinicians, parents, and policymakers for providing accurate outcome estimates. In this perspective, we discuss the opportunities and challenges of using prognostic models in extremely preterm infants at population and individual levels. At a population level, these models could support the development of guidelines for decisions about treatment limits and may support policy processes such as benchmarking and resource allocation. At an individual level, these models may enhance prenatal counselling conversations by considering multiple variables and improving transparency about expected outcomes. Furthermore, they may improve consistency in projections shared with parents. For the development of prognostic models, we discuss important considerations such as predictor and outcome measure selection, clinical impact assessment, and generalizability. Lastly, future recommendations for developing and using prognostic models are suggested. Importantly, the purpose of a prognostic model should be clearly defined, and integrating these models into prenatal counselling requires thoughtful consideration.

When the Unknown Is Unknowable: Confronting Diagnostic Uncertainty

The neonatology literature often refers to medical uncertainty and specifically the challenges of predicting morbidity for extremely premature infants, who can have widely varying outcomes. Less has been written about situations in which diagnoses are simply unknown or unattainable. This case highlights the importance of communication amidst uncertainty from a lack of knowledge about aspects of a patient's condition. Using epidemiologic and clinical reasoning, the authors challenge the assumption that diagnostic uncertainty must necessarily portend prognostic uncertainty. When physicians' quest for a diagnosis becomes burdensome and detrimental to the infant's quality of life, this should be abandoned and replaced by focusing on prognosis. The authors focus on the shift of the physician's role toward one of support, assisting the family in ascribing meaning to the dying experience. By focusing on prognosis and support, communication can proceed with more clarity, understanding, and empathy.

Providing recurrence risk counselling for parents after diagnosis of a serious genetic condition caused by an apparently de novo mutation in their child: a qualitative investigation of the PREGCARE strategy with UK clinical genetics practitioners

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of a child with a genetic condition leads to parents asking whether there is a risk the condition could occur again with future pregnancies. If the cause is identified as an apparent de novo mutation (DNM), couples are currently given a generic, population average, recurrence risk of ~1%-2%, depending on the condition. Although DNMs usually arise as one-off events, they can also originate through the process of mosaicism in either parent; in this instance, the DNM is present in multiple germ cells and the actual recurrence risk could theoretically be as high as 50%.

METHODS

Our qualitative interview study examined the views and reflections on current practice provided by UK practitioners working in clinical genetics (n=20) regarding the potential impact of PREcision Genetic Counselling And REproduction (PREGCARE)-a new preconception personalised recurrence risk assessment strategy.

RESULTS

Those interviewed regarded PREGCARE as a very useful addition to risk management, especially for cases where it revised the risk downwards or clarified that a couple's personalised recurrence risk meets National Health Service thresholds for non-invasive prenatal testing, otherwise inaccessible based on the generic DNM recurrence risk.

CONCLUSION

Participants said it could release some couples requiring reassurance from undergoing unnecessary invasive testing in future pregnancies. However, they regarded mosaicism and PREGCARE as complex concepts to communicate, requiring further training and additional appointment time for pre-test genetic counselling to prepare couples for all the possible outcomes of a personalised risk assessment, including potentially identifying the parental origin of the DNM, and to ensure informed consent.

Strategies for communicating scientific evidence on healthcare to managers and the population: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Health evidence needs to be communicated and disseminated in a manner that is clearly understood by decision-makers. As an inherent component of health knowledge translation, communicating results of scientific studies, effects of interventions and health risk estimates, in addition to understanding key concepts of clinical epidemiology and interpreting evidence, represent a set of essential instruments to reduce the gap between science and practice. The advancement of digital and social media has reshaped the concept of health communication, introducing new, direct and powerful communication platforms and gateways between researchers and the public. The objective of this scoping review was to identify strategies for communicating scientific evidence in healthcare to managers and/or population.

METHODS

We searched Cochrane Library, Embase®, MEDLINE® and other six electronic databases, in addition to grey literature, relevant websites from related organizations for studies, documents or reports published from 2000, addressing any strategy for communicating scientific evidence on healthcare to managers and/or population.

RESULTS

Our search identified 24 598 unique records, of which 80 met the inclusion criteria and addressed 78 strategies. Most strategies focused on risk and benefit communication in health, were presented by textual format and had been implemented and somehow evaluated. Among the strategies evaluated and appearing to yield some benefit are (i) risk/benefit communication: natural frequencies instead of percentages, absolute risk instead relative risk and number needed to treat, numerical instead nominal communication, mortality instead survival; negative or loss content appear to be more effective than positive or gain content; (ii) evidence synthesis: plain languages summaries to communicate the results of Cochrane reviews to the community were perceived as more reliable, easier to find and understand, and better to support decisions than the original summaries; (iii) teaching/learning: the Informed Health Choices resources seem to be effective for improving critical thinking skills.

CONCLUSION

Our findings contribute to both the knowledge translation process by identifying communication strategies with potential for immediate implementation and to future research by recognizing the need to evaluate the clinical and social impact of other strategies to support evidence-informed policies. Trial registration protocol is prospectively available in MedArxiv (doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.04.21265922).

Scientific uncertainty and perceived mammography benefits in women screened for breast cancer

PURPOSE

Personal aversion to scientific uncertainty may influence how women perceive the benefits of mammography, a breast cancer screening practice with conflicting scientific opinions and guidelines. Such associations may even exist among women who participate in screening.

METHODS

We evaluated the distribution of aversion to ambiguous medical information (AA-Med), using a 6-item scale capturing the level of agreement with statements about obtaining a cancer screening test with conflicting medical recommendations in 665 women (aged 40-60 years; 79.5% Hispanic) recruited during screening mammography appointments in New York City. We assessed the association of AA-Med with perceptions of benefits of mammography (breast cancer mortality reduction, worry reduction, early detection, treatment improvement) using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Over a quarter of participants expressed negative reactions to medical ambiguity about a cancer screening test (e.g., fear, lower trust in experts), but a majority endorsed intention to undergo screening. AA-Med was higher in women who were U.S.-born, non-Hispanic black, and had marginal to adequate health literacy, but there were no differences by clinical factors or screening experiences (e.g., family history, prior breast biopsy). Women with higher AA-Med were more likely to perceive treatment benefits from mammography (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 0.99-1.90), but AA-Med was not associated with other perceived mammography benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

Aversion to uncertainty regarding cancer screening varies by sociodemographic characteristics but has limited associations with perceived mammography benefits in women who already participate in screening.

Education messages and strategies to inform the public, potential screening candidates and healthcare providers about lung cancer screening: A systematic review

International lung cancer screening (LCS) trials, using low-dose computed tomography, have demonstrated clinical effectiveness in reducing mortality from lung cancer. This systematic review aims to synthesise the key messages and strategies that could be successful in increasing awareness and knowledge of LCS, and ultimately increase uptake of screening. Studies were identified via relevant database searches up to January 2022. Two authors evaluated eligible studies, extracted and crosschecked data, and assessed quality. Results were synthesised narratively. Of 3205 titles identified, 116 full text articles were reviewed and 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty studies were conducted in the United States. While the study findings were heterogenous, key messages mentioned across multiple studies were about: provision of information on LCS and the recommendations for LCS (n = 8); benefits and harms of LCS (n = 6); cost of LCS and insurance coverage for participants (n = 6) and eligibility criteria (n = 5). To increase knowledge and awareness, evidence from awareness campaigns suggests that presenting information about eligibility and the benefits and harms of screening, may increase screening intention and uptake. Evidence from behavioural studies suggests that campaigns supporting engagement with platforms such as educational videos and digital awareness campaigns might be most effective. Group based learning appears to be most suited to increasing health professionals' knowledge. This systematic review found a lack of consistent evidence to demonstrate which strategies are most effective for increasing participant healthcare professional and community awareness and education about LCS.

Delivering a Diagnosis of Parkinson's Disease and Parkinsonism with Wisdom and Sensitivity

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic, progressive, complex movement disorder. In addition to the motor manifestations, changes in mood and cognition frequently occur. It is understandable that receiving this diagnosis can be difficult for patients and their significant others. For the clinician, delivering a PD diagnosis can be challenging and requires a comprehensive patient assessment followed by a thoughtful treatment plan. How this diagnosis is conveyed can have a long-term impact on patient outcomes such as treatment adherence, participation in decision making, understanding of PD, and satisfaction with care. Because a PD diagnosis is often complicated by uncertainty about the diagnosis itself as well as future prognosis, a sensitive patient-centered approach to care, balanced with realistic expectations, is recommended. Full disclosure, honesty, and empathy on the part of the entire healthcare team are required. This includes relevant information tailored to the patient's unique needs at the time of diagnosis as well as referrals to appropriate rehabilitation and support services. Consistent, timely follow-up of all interventions is essential. It is essential that a diagnosis of PD is properly delivered to optimize understanding of PD, treatment adherence, participation in decision making, and satisfaction with care. In this article, we provide guidance on delivery of this diagnosis based on a growing body of evidence and our >35-year collective clinical experience and work developing and utilizing pertinent, creative educational tools and comprehensive, sensitive support programs for newly diagnosed patients and their significant others. Although most of the evidence we present pertains to PD, our experience suggests it could also apply to other forms of Parkinsonism and other chronic or progressive movement disorders.

Decision Support Tools for Low-Dose CT Lung Cancer Screening: A Scoping Review of Information Content, Format, and Presentation Methods

Several countries mandate informed or shared decision-making for low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening, but knowledge is limited about the type of information and presentation techniques used to support decision-making in practice. This review aimed to characterize the content, format, mode, and presentation methods of decision support tools (DSTs) for LDCT lung cancer screening. DSTs reported within peer-reviewed articles (January 2000-April 2021) were identified systematically from PubMed, PsycInfo, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus. Inclusion criteria revolved around the development or evaluation of a resource or tool intended to support individual or shared decision-making for LDCT lung cancer screening. The data-charting and extraction framework was based on the International Patient Decision Aids Standards instrument and Template for Intervention Description and Reporting. Extracted data were organized within two categories: (1) study characteristics and context, format, and mode of DST use and (2) DST content and presentation methods. This review identified 22 DSTs in paper, video, or electronic formats across 26 articles. Most DSTs (n = 13) focused on knowledge exchange, whereas seven used interactive techniques to support values clarification (eg, Likert scales) and nine DSTs guided deliberation (eg, suggested discussion topics). The DSTs addressed similar topics, but the detail, quantification of probability, and presentation methods varied considerably. None described all the potential screening harms and results. The heterogeneity in DST design may affect the quality of decision-making, particularly for participants with lower literacy and numeracy. Evidence-based consensus guidelines for DST content and presentation methods should be developed collaboratively with screening-eligible adults.

Determinants of guideline-concordant breast cancer screening by family physicians for women aged 40-49 years: a qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND

Although the current Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care guideline recommends that physicians should inform women aged 40-49 years of the potential benefits and harms of screening mammography to support individualized decisions, previous reports of variation in clinical practice at the physician level suggest a lack of guideline-concordant care. We explored determinants (barriers and facilitators) of guideline-concordant care by family physicians regarding screening mammography in this age group.

METHODS

We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews by phone with family physicians in the Greater Toronto Area from January to November 2020. We structured interviews using the Theoretical Domains Framework to explore determinants (barriers and facilitators) of 5 physician screening behaviours, namely risk assessment, discussion regarding benefits and harms, decision or referral for mammography, referral for genetic counselling and referral to high-risk screening programs. Two independent researchers iteratively analyzed interview transcripts and deductively coded for each behaviour by domain to identify key behavioural determinants until saturation was reached.

RESULTS

We interviewed 18 physicians (mean age 48 yr, 72% self-identified as women). Risk assessment was influenced by physicians' knowledge of risk factors, skills to synthesize risk and beliefs about utility. Physicians had beliefs in their capabilities to have informed patient-centred discussions, but insufficient knowledge regarding the harms of screening. The decision or referral for mammography was affected by emotions related to past patient outcomes, social influences of patients and radiology departments, and knowledge and beliefs about consequences (benefits and harms of screening). Referrals for genetic counselling and to high-risk screening programs were facilitated by their availability and by the knowledge and skills to complete forms. Lack of knowledge regarding which patients qualify and beliefs about consequences were barriers to referral.

INTERPRETATION

Insufficient knowledge and skills for performance of risk assessment, combined with a tendency to overestimate benefits of screening relative to harms affected provision of guideline-concordant care. These may be effective targets for future interventions to improve guideline-concordant care.

Association of Self-reported Primary Care Physician Tolerance for Uncertainty With Variations in Resource Use and Patient Experience

Importance

Inappropriate variations in clinical practice are a known cause of poor quality and safety, with variations often associated with nonclinical factors, such as individual differences in cognitive processing. The differential response of physicians to uncertainty may explain some of the variations in resource use and patient experience.

Objective

To examine the association of physician tolerance for uncertainty with variations in resource use and patient experience.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This survey study linked physician survey data (May to June 2019), patient experience survey data (January 2016 to December 2019), and billing data (January 2019 to December 2019) among primary care physicians (PCPs) at Massachusetts General Hospital with at least 10 visits in 2019. The statistical analysis was performed in 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The analysis examined associations of PCP tolerance for uncertainty with the tendency to order diagnostic tests, the frequency of outpatient visits, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and patient experience data (focused on physician communication and overall rating). A 2-stage hierarchical framework was used to account for clustering of patients under PCPs. Binary outcomes were modeled using a hierarchical logistic model, and count outcomes were modeled using hierarchical Poisson or negative binomial models. The analysis was adjusted for patient demographic variables (age, sex, and race and ethnicity), socioeconomic factors (payer and neighborhood income), and clinical comorbidities.

Results

Of 217 included physicians, 137 (63.1%) were women, and 174 (80.2%) were adult PCPs. A total of 62 physicians (28.6%) reported low tolerance, 59 (27.2%) reported medium tolerance, and 96 (44.2%) reported high tolerance for uncertainty. Physicians with a low tolerance for uncertainty were less likely to order complete blood cell counts (odds ratio [OR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50-0.88), thyroid tests (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.88), a basic metabolic profile (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00), and liver function tests (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.53-0.99) than physicians with a high tolerance for uncertainty. Physicians who reported higher tolerance for uncertainty were more likely to receive higher patient experience scores for listening to patients carefully (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.50-0.83) and higher overall ratings (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98) than physicians with medium tolerance. Conversely, no association was found between physician tolerance for uncertainty and patient outpatient visits, hospital admissions, or emergency department visits.

Conclusions and Relevance

In clinical practice, identifying and effectively managing inappropriate variations and improving patient experience have proven to be difficult, despite increased attention to these issues. This study supports the hypothesis that physicians' tolerance for uncertainty is associated with differences in resource use and patient experience. Whether enhancing physicians' tolerance for uncertainty could help reduce unwarranted practice variations, improve quality and patient safety, and improve patient's experience remains to be established.

The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context

Large-scale societal issues such as public health crises highlight the need to communicate scientific information, which is often uncertain, accurately to the public and policy makers. The challenge is to communicate the inherent scientific uncertainty — especially about the underlying quality of the evidence — whilst supporting informed decision making. Little is known about the effects that such scientific uncertainty has on people’s judgments of the information. In three experimental studies (total N=6,489), we investigate the influence of scientific uncertainty about the quality of the evidence on people’s perceived trustworthiness of the information and decision making. We compare the provision of high, low, and ambiguous quality-of-evidence indicators against providing no such cues. Results show an asymmetric relationship: people react more strongly to cues of low quality of evidence than they do to high quality of evidence compared to no cue. While responses to a cue of high quality of evidence are not significantly different from no cue; a cue of low or uncertain quality of evidence is accompanied by lower perceived trustworthiness and lower use of the information in decision making. Cues of uncertain quality of evidence have a similar effect to those of low quality. These effects do not change with the addition of a reason for the indicated quality level. Our findings shed light on the effects of the communication of scientific uncertainty on judgment and decision making, and provide insights for evidence-based communications and informed decision making for policy makers and the public.

How Physicians Discuss Uncertainty With Parents in Intensive Care Units

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Physicians and parents of critically ill neonates and children receiving intensive care have to make decisions on the child's behalf. Throughout the child's illness and treatment trajectory, adequately discussing uncertainties with parents is pivotal because this enhances the quality of the decision-making process and may positively affect the child's and parents' well-being. We investigated how physicians discuss uncertainty with parents and how this discussion evolves over time during the trajectory.

METHODS

We asked physicians working in the NICU and PICU of 3 university medical centers to audio record their conversations with parents of critically ill children from the moment doubts arose whether treatment was in the child's best interests. We qualitatively coded and analyzed the anonymized transcripts, thereby using the software tool MAXQDA 2020.

RESULTS

Physicians were found to adapt the way they discussed uncertainty with parents to the specific phase of the child's illness and treatment trajectory. When treatment options were still available, physicians primarily focused on uncertainty related to diagnostic procedures, treatment options, and associated risks and effects. Particularly when the child's death was imminent, physicians had less "scientific" guidance to offer. They eliminated most uncertainty and primarily addressed practical uncertainties regarding the child's dying process to offer parents guidance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our insights may increase physicians' awareness and enhance their skills in discussing uncertainties with parents tailored to the phase of the child's illness and treatment trajectory and to parental needs in each specific phase.

Epistemic Beliefs: Relationship to Future Expectancies and Quality of Life in Cancer Patients

CONTEXT

Expectations about the future (future expectancies) are important determinants of psychological well-being among cancer patients, but the strategies patients use to maintain positive and cope with negative expectancies are incompletely understood.

OBJECTIVES

To obtain preliminary evidence on the potential role of one strategy for managing future expectancies: the adoption of "epistemic beliefs" in fundamental limits to medical knowledge.

METHODS

A sample of 1307 primarily advanced-stage cancer patients participating in a genomic tumor testing study in community oncology practices completed measures of epistemic beliefs, positive future expectancies, and mental and physical health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Descriptive and linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationships between these factors and test two hypotheses: 1) epistemic beliefs affirming fundamental limits to medical knowledge ("fallibilistic epistemic beliefs") are associated with positive future expectancies and mental HRQOL, and 2) positive future expectancies mediate this association.

RESULTS

Participants reported relatively high beliefs in limits to medical knowledge (M = 2.94, s.d.=.67) and positive future expectancies (M = 3.01, s.d.=.62) (range 0-4), and relatively low mental and physical HRQOL. Consistent with hypotheses, fallibilistic epistemic beliefs were associated with positive future expectancies (b = 0.11, SE=.03, P< 0.001) and greater mental HRQOL (b = 0.99, SE=.34, P = 0.004); positive expectancies also mediated the association between epistemic beliefs and mental HRQOL (Sobel Z=4.27, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Epistemic beliefs in limits to medical knowledge are associated with positive future expectancies and greater mental HRQOL; positive expectancies mediate the association between epistemic beliefs and HRQOL. More research is needed to confirm these relationships and elucidate their causal mechanisms.

Communicating Uncertainties About the Effects of Medical Interventions Using Different Display Formats

Communicating uncertainties in scientific evidence is important to accurately reflect scientific knowledge , increase public understanding of uncertainty, and to signal transparency and honesty in reporting. While techniques have been developed to facilitate the communication of uncertainty, many have not been empirically tested, compared for communicating different types of uncertainty, or their effects on different cognitive, trust, and behavioral outcomes have not been evaluated. The present study examined how a point estimate, imprecise estimate, conflicting estimates, or a statement about the lack of evidence about treatment effects, influenced participant's responses to communications about medical evidence. For each type of uncertainty, we adapted three display formats to communicate the information: tables, bar graphs, and icon arrays. We compared participant's best estimates of treatment effects, as well as effects on recall, subjective evaluations (understandability and usefuleness), certainty perceptions, perceptions of trustworthiness of the information, and behavioral intentions. We did not find any detrimental effects from communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to a point estimate across any outcome. Furthermore, there were more favorable responses to communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to lack of evidence, where participants estimated the treatment would improve outcomes by 30-50% relative to a placebo. There were no differences across display formats, suggesting that, if well-designed, it may not matter which format is used. Future research on specific display formats or uncertainty types and with larger sample sizes would be needed to detect small effects. Implications for the communication of uncertainty are discussed.

Making complex decisions in uncertain times: experiences of Dutch GPs as gatekeepers regarding hospital referrals during COVID-19-a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

General practitioners often act as gatekeeper, authorizing patients' access to hospital care. This gatekeeping role became even more important during the current COVID-19 crisis as uncertainties regarding COVID-19 made estimating the desirability of hospital referrals (for outpatient or inpatient hospitalization) complex, both for COVID and non-COVID suspected patients. This study explored Dutch general practitioners' experiences and ethical dilemmas faced in decision making about hospital referrals in times of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews with Dutch general practitioners working in the Netherlands were conducted. Participants were recruited via purposive sampling. Thematic analysis was conducted using content coding.

RESULTS

Fifteen interviews were conducted, identifying four themes: one overarching regarding (1) COVID-19 uncertainties, and three themes about experienced ethical dilemmas: (2) the patients' self-determination vs. the general practitioners' paternalism, (3) the general practitioners' duty of care vs. the general practitioners' autonomy rights, (4) the general practitioners' duty of care vs. adequate care provision.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of knowledge about COVID-19, risks to infect loved ones, scarcity of hospital beds and loneliness of patients during hospital admission were central in dilemmas experienced. When developing guidelines for future crises, this should be taken into account.

Financial Estimation of the Uncertainty in Medicine Using Present Value of Medical Fees and a Mortality Risk Prediction Model: a Retrospective Cohort Study

This study aimed to develop a method to enable the financial estimation of each patient’s uncertainty without focusing on healthcare technology. We define financial uncertainty (FU) as the difference between an actual amount of claim (AC) and the discounted present value of the AC (DAC). DAC can be calculated based on a discounted present value calculated using a cash flow, a period of investment, and a discount rate. The present study considered these three items as AC, the length of hospital stay, and the predicted mortality rate. The mortality prediction model was built using typical data items in standard level electronic medical records such as sex, age, and disease information. The performance of the prediction model was moderate because an area under curve was approximately 85%. The empirical analysis primarily compares the FU of the top 20 diseases with the actual AC using a retrospective cohort in the University of Miyazaki Hospital. The observational period is 5 years, from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018. The analysis demonstrates that the proportion of FU to actual AC is higher than 20% in low-weight children, patients with leukemia, brain tumor, myeloid leukemia, or non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. For these diseases, patients cannot avoid long hospitalization; therefore, the medical fee payment system should be designed based on uncertainty. Our method is both practical and generalizable because it uses a small number of data items that are required in standard electronic medical records. This method contributes to the decision-making processes of health policymakers.

Diagnostic uncertainty in primary care: what is known about its communication, and what are the associated ethical issues?

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic uncertainty (DU) in primary care is ubiquitous, yet no review has specifically examined its communication, or the associated ethical issues.

OBJECTIVES

To identify what is known about the communication of DU in primary care and the associated ethical issues.

METHODS

Systematic review, critical interpretive synthesis and ethical analysis of primary research published worldwide. Medline, Embase, Web of Science and SCOPUS were searched for papers from 1988 to 2020 relating to primary care AND diagnostic uncertainty AND [ethics OR behaviours OR communication]. Critical interpretive synthesis and ethical analysis were applied to data extracted.

RESULTS

Sixteen papers met inclusion criteria. Although DU is inherent in primary care, its communication is often limited. Evidence on the effects of communicating DU to patients is mixed; research on patient perspectives of DU is lacking. The empirical literature is significantly limited by inconsistencies in how DU is defined and measured. No primary ethical analysis was identified; secondary analysis of the included papers identified ethical issues relating to maintaining patient autonomy in the face of clinical uncertainty, a gap in considering the direct effects of (not) communicating DU on patients, and considerations regarding over-investigation and justice.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights significant gaps in the literature: there is a need for explicit ethical and patient-centred empirical analyses on the effects of communicating DU, and research directly examining patient preferences for this communication. Consensus on how DU should be defined, and greater research into tools for its measurement, would help to strengthen the empirical evidence base.

A scoping review of practice recommendations for clinicians' communication of uncertainty

BACKGROUND

Health-care providers increasingly have to discuss uncertainty with patients. Awareness of uncertainty can affect patients variably, depending on how it is communicated. To date, no overview existed for health-care professionals on how to discuss uncertainty.

OBJECTIVE

To generate an overview of available recommendations on how to communicate uncertainty with patients during clinical encounters.

SEARCH STRATEGY

A scoping review was conducted. Four databases were searched following the PRISMA-ScR statement. Independent screening by two researchers was performed of titles and abstracts, and subsequently full texts.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Any (non-)empirical papers were included describing recommendations for any health-care provider on how to orally communicate uncertainty to patients.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on provided recommendations and their characteristics (eg, target group and strength of evidence base) were extracted. Recommendations were narratively synthesized into a comprehensible overview for clinical practice.

RESULTS

Forty-seven publications were included. Recommendations were based on empirical findings in 23 publications. After narrative synthesis, 13 recommendations emerged pertaining to three overarching goals: (a) preparing for the discussion of uncertainty, (b) informing patients about uncertainty and (c) helping patients deal with uncertainty.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

A variety of recommendations on how to orally communicate uncertainty are available, but most lack an evidence base. More substantial research is needed to assess the effects of the suggested communicative approaches. Until then, health-care providers may use our overview of communication strategies as a toolbox to optimize communication about uncertainty with patients.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Results were presented to stakeholders (physicians) to check and improve their practical applicability.

Oncologists' Communication About Uncertain Information in Second Opinion Consultations: A Focused Qualitative Analysis

Introduction: Uncertainty is omnipresent in cancer care, including the ambiguity of diagnostic tests, efficacy and side effects of treatments, and/or patients' long-term prognosis. During second opinion consultations, uncertainty may be particularly tangible: doubts and uncertainty may drive patients to seek more information and request a second opinion, whereas the second opinion in turn may also affect patients' level of uncertainty. Providers are tasked to clearly discuss all of these uncertainties with patients who may feel overwhelmed by it. The aim of this study was to explore how oncologists communicate about uncertainty during second opinion consultations in medical oncology. Methods: We performed a secondary qualitative analysis of audio-recorded consultations collected in a prospective study among cancer patients (N = 69) who sought a second opinion in medical oncology. We purposively selected 12 audio-recorded second opinion consultations. Any communication about uncertainty by the oncologist was double coded by two researchers and an inductive analytic approach was chosen to allow for novel insights to arise. Results: Seven approaches in which oncologists conveyed or addressed uncertainty were identified: (1) specifying the degree of uncertainty, (2) explaining reasons of uncertainty, (3) providing personalized estimates of uncertainty to patients, (4) downplaying or magnifying uncertainty, (5) reducing or counterbalancing uncertainty, and (6) providing support to facilitate patients in coping with uncertainty. Moreover, oncologists varied in their (7) choice of words/language to convey uncertainty (i.e., "I" vs. "we"; level of explicitness). Discussion: This study identified various approaches of how oncologists communicated uncertain issues during second opinion consultations. These different approaches could affect patients' perception of uncertainty, emotions provoked by it, and possibly even patients' behavior. For example, by minimizing uncertainty, oncologists may (un)consciously steer patients toward specific medical decisions). Future research is needed to examine how these different ways of communicating about uncertainty affect patients. This could also facilitate a discussion about the desirability of certain communication strategies. Eventually, practical and evidence-based guidance needs to be developed for clinicians to optimally inform patients about uncertain issues and support patients in dealing with these.

How do the UK public interpret COVID-19 test results? Comparing the impact of official information about results and reliability used in the UK, USA and New Zealand: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of different official information on public interpretation of a personal COVID-19 PCR test result.

DESIGN

A 5×2 factorial, randomised, between-subjects experiment, comparing four wordings of information about the test result and a control arm of no additional information; for both positive and negative test results.

SETTING

Online experiment using recruitment platform Respondi.

PARTICIPANTS

UK participants (n=1744, after a pilot of n=1657) quota-sampled to be proportional to the UK national population on age and sex.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were given a hypothetical COVID-19 PCR test result for 'John' who was presented as having a 50% chance of having COVID-19 based on symptoms alone. Participants were randomised to receive either a positive or negative result for 'John', then randomised again to receive either no more information, or text information on the interpretation of COVID-19 test results copied in September 2020 from the public websites of the UK's National Health Service, the USA's Centers for Disease Control, New Zealand's Ministry of Health or a modified version of the UK's wording. Information identifying the source of the wording was removed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants were asked 'What is your best guess as to the percent chance that John actually had COVID-19 at the time of his test, given his result?'; questions about their feelings of trustworthiness in the result, their perceptions of the quality of the underlying evidence and what action they felt 'John' should take in the light of his result.

RESULTS

Of those presented with a positive COVID-19 test result for 'John', the mean estimate of the probability that he had the virus was 73% (71.5%-74.5%); for those presented with a negative result, 38% (36.7%-40.0%). There was no main effect of information (wording) on these means. However, those participants given the official information from the UK website, which did not mention the possibility of false negatives or false positives, were more likely to give a categorical (100% or 0%) answer (UK: 68/343, 19.8% (15.9%-24.4%); control group: 42/356, 11.8% (8.8%-15.6%)); the reverse was true for those viewing the New Zealand (NZ) wording, which highlighted the uncertainties most explicitly (20/345: 5.8% (3.7%-8.8%)). Aggregated across test result (positive/negative), there was a main effect of wording (p<0.001) on beliefs about how 'John' should behave, with those seeing the NZ wording marginally more likely to agree that 'John' should continue to self-isolate than those viewing the control or the UK wording. The proportion of participants who felt that a symptomatic individual who tests negative definitely should not self-isolate was highest among those viewing the UK wording (31/178, 17.4% (12.5%-23.7%)), and lowest among those viewing the NZ wording (6/159, 3.8% (1.6%-8.2%)). Although the NZ wording was rated harder to understand, participants reacted to the uncertainties given in the text in the expected direction: there was a small main effect of wording on trust in the result (p=0.048), with people perceiving the test result as marginally less trustworthy after having read the NZ wording compared with the UK wording. Positive results were generally viewed as more trustworthy and as having higher quality of evidence than negative results (both p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The public's default assessment of the face value of both the positive and negative test results (control group) indicate an awareness that test results are not perfectly accurate. Compared with other messaging tested, participants shown the UK's 2020 wording about the interpretation of the test results appeared to interpret the results as more definitive than is warranted. Wording that acknowledges uncertainty can help people to have a more nuanced and realistic understanding of what a COVID-19 test result means, which supports decision making and behavioural response.

PREREGISTRATION AND DATA REPOSITORY

Preregistration of pilot at osf.io/8n62f, preregistration of main experiment at osf.io/7rcj4, data and code available online (osf.io/pvhba).

A randomized experimental study to test the effects of discussing uncertainty during cancer genetic counseling: different strategies, different outcomes?

Uncertainty is increasingly discussed during genetic counseling due to innovative techniques, e.g., multigene panel testing. Discussions about uncertainty may impact counselees variably, depending on counselors' communication styles. Ideally, the discussion of uncertainty enables counselees to cope with uncertainty and make well-informed decisions about testing. We examined the impact of how counselors convey uncertainty and address counselees' uncertainty, and explored the role of individual characteristics. Therefore, a randomized controlled experiment using videos was conducted. Former counselees (N = 224) viewed one video depicting a genetic consultation about multigene panel testing. The extent of counselors' communication of uncertainty (comprehensive vs. the essence) and their response to counselees' uncertainty expressions (providing information vs. providing space for emotions vs. normalizing and counterbalancing uncertainty) were systematically manipulated. Individual characteristics, e.g., uncertainty tolerance, were assessed, as well as outcome variables (primary outcomes: feelings of uncertainty and information recall). No effects were found on primary outcomes. Participants were most satisfied when the essence was communicated, combined with providing information or providing space responses (p = 0.002). Comprehensive information resulted in less perceived steering toward testing (p = 0.005). Participants with lower uncertainty tolerance or higher trait anxiety were less confident about their understanding when receiving comprehensive information (p = 0.025). Participants seeking information experienced less uncertainty (p = 0.003), and trusted their counselor more (p = 0.028), when the counselor used information providing responses. In sum, the impact of discussing uncertainty primarily depends on individual characteristics. Practical guidelines should address how to tailor the discussion of uncertainty.

How Physicians Manage Medical Uncertainty: A Qualitative Study and Conceptual Taxonomy

BACKGROUND

Medical uncertainty is a pervasive and important problem, but the strategies physicians use to manage it have not been systematically described.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the uncertainty management strategies employed by physicians practicing in acute-care hospital settings and to organize these strategies within a conceptual taxonomy that can guide further efforts to understand and improve physicians' tolerance of medical uncertainty.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using individual in-depth interviews.

PARTICIPANTS

Convenience sample of 22 physicians and trainees (11 attending physicians, 7 residents [postgraduate years 1-3), 4 fourth-year medical students), working within 3 medical specialties (emergency medicine, internal medicine, internal medicine-pediatrics), at a single large US teaching hospital.

MEASUREMENTS

Semistructured interviews explored participants' strategies for managing medical uncertainty and temporal changes in their uncertainty tolerance. Inductive qualitative analysis of audio-recorded interview transcripts was conducted to identify and categorize key themes and to develop a coherent conceptual taxonomy of uncertainty management strategies.

RESULTS

Participants identified various uncertainty management strategies that differed in their primary focus: 1) ignorance-focused, 2) uncertainty-focused, 3) response-focused, and 4) relationship-focused. Ignorance- and uncertainty-focused strategies were primarily curative (aimed at reducing uncertainty), while response- and relationship-focused strategies were primarily palliative (aimed at ameliorating aversive effects of uncertainty). Several participants described a temporal evolution in their tolerance of uncertainty, which coincided with the development of greater epistemic maturity, humility, flexibility, and openness.

CONCLUSIONS

Physicians and physician-trainees employ a variety of uncertainty management strategies focused on different goals, and their tolerance of uncertainty evolves with the development of several key capacities. More work is needed to understand and improve the management of medical uncertainty by physicians, and a conceptual taxonomy can provide a useful organizing framework for this work.

How Physicians Manage Medical Uncertainty: A Qualitative Study and Conceptual Taxonomy

BACKGROUND

Medical uncertainty is a pervasive and important problem, but the strategies physicians use to manage it have not been systematically described.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the uncertainty management strategies employed by physicians practicing in acute-care hospital settings and to organize these strategies within a conceptual taxonomy that can guide further efforts to understand and improve physicians' tolerance of medical uncertainty.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using individual in-depth interviews.

PARTICIPANTS

Convenience sample of 22 physicians and trainees (11 attending physicians, 7 residents [postgraduate years 1-3), 4 fourth-year medical students), working within 3 medical specialties (emergency medicine, internal medicine, internal medicine-pediatrics), at a single large US teaching hospital.

MEASUREMENTS

Semistructured interviews explored participants' strategies for managing medical uncertainty and temporal changes in their uncertainty tolerance. Inductive qualitative analysis of audio-recorded interview transcripts was conducted to identify and categorize key themes and to develop a coherent conceptual taxonomy of uncertainty management strategies.

RESULTS

Participants identified various uncertainty management strategies that differed in their primary focus: 1) ignorance-focused, 2) uncertainty-focused, 3) response-focused, and 4) relationship-focused. Ignorance- and uncertainty-focused strategies were primarily curative (aimed at reducing uncertainty), while response- and relationship-focused strategies were primarily palliative (aimed at ameliorating aversive effects of uncertainty). Several participants described a temporal evolution in their tolerance of uncertainty, which coincided with the development of greater epistemic maturity, humility, flexibility, and openness.

CONCLUSIONS

Physicians and physician-trainees employ a variety of uncertainty management strategies focused on different goals, and their tolerance of uncertainty evolves with the development of several key capacities. More work is needed to understand and improve the management of medical uncertainty by physicians, and a conceptual taxonomy can provide a useful organizing framework for this work.

Current Best Practice for Presenting Probabilities in Patient Decision Aids: Fundamental Principles

BACKGROUND

Shared decision making requires evidence to be conveyed to the patient in a way they can easily understand and compare. Patient decision aids facilitate this process. This article reviews the current evidence for how to present numerical probabilities within patient decision aids.

METHODS

Following the 2013 review method, we assembled a group of 9 international experts on risk communication across Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We expanded the topics covered in the first review to reflect emerging areas of research. Groups of 2 to 3 authors reviewed the relevant literature based on their expertise and wrote each section before review by the full authorship team.

RESULTS

Of 10 topics identified, we present 5 fundamental issues in this article. Although some topics resulted in clear guidance (presenting the chance an event will occur, addressing numerical skills), other topics (context/evaluative labels, conveying uncertainty, risk over time) continue to have evolving knowledge bases. We recommend presenting numbers over a set time period with a clear denominator, using consistent formats between outcomes and interventions to enable unbiased comparisons, and interpreting the numbers for the reader to meet the needs of varying numeracy.

DISCUSSION

Understanding how different numerical formats can bias risk perception will help decision aid developers communicate risks in a balanced, comprehensible manner and avoid accidental "nudging" toward a particular option. Decisions between probability formats need to consider the available evidence and user skills. The review may be useful for other areas of science communication in which unbiased presentation of probabilities is important.

Saying "I Don't Know": A Video-Based Study on Physicians' Claims of No-Knowledge in Assisted Reproductive Technology Consultations

Introduction

The assisted reproductive technology (ART) field deals with consistent and predictable gaps in knowledge. Expressing lack of knowledge with a sentence like “I don’t know” can be challenging for doctors. This study examined physicians’ negative epistemic disclaimer “non lo so” in Italian ART doctor-couple interactions. In particular, it aimed to reveal specific features of “non lo so”: function, topic, temporality, responsibility, and interactional aspects.

Methods

This was a video-based observational study. We used microanalysis of face-to-face dialogue to analyze 20 purposively selected triadic consultations from a corpus of 85. This inductive analysis focused on the function, the content (topic and temporality) and some selected interactional aspects of the “non lo so”, quantifying and capturing the interaction between these qualitative features.

Results

We found 82 doctors’ “non lo so” in the corpus (mean = 4.4; range = 0–15). We discovered three main functions of this expression: propositional (n = 73/82), relational (n = 6/82), discursive (n = 3/82). The most frequent topics raising doctors’ “non lo so” were costs (n = 11/82), treatment-related aspects (n = 10/82), and timing issues (n = 9/82). In more than half of the cases (n = 44/82), present issues emerged. The majority (n = 70/82) of “non lo so” was framed using the “I,” with doctors’ taking personal responsibility. Patients played a role in these expressions from doctors: Patients initiated more than one third of them, and in one fourth of the cases, patients followed up immediately.

Conclusion

Our findings may be related to characteristics of the specific field of ART. Doctors in this setting must frequently express a direct lack of knowledge to their patients, and when they do, they mean it literally. Patients contribute to such disclosures, and their responses suggest that they find them acceptable, showing that they may expect limitations in their potential to conceive.

Cause or Effect? The Role of Prognostic Uncertainty in the Fear of Cancer Recurrence

Background

Fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) is an important cause of suffering for cancer survivors, and both empirical evidence and theoretical models suggest that prognostic uncertainty plays a causal role in its development. However, the relationship between prognostic uncertainty and FCR is incompletely understood.

Objective

To explore the relationship between prognostic uncertainty and FCR among patients with ovarian cancer (OC).

Design

A qualitative study was conducted utilizing individual in-depth interviews with a convenience sample of patients with epithelial ovarian cancer who had completed first-line treatment with surgery and/or chemotherapy. Semi-structured interviews explored participants’ (1) understanding of their prognosis; (2) experiences, preferences, and attitudes regarding prognostic information; and (3) strategies for coping with prognostic uncertainty. Inductive qualitative analysis and line-by-line software-assisted coding of interview transcripts was conducted to identify key themes and generate theoretical insights on the relationship between prognostic uncertainty and FCR.

Results

The study sample consisted of 21 participants, nearly all of whom reported experiencing significant FCR, which they traced to an awareness of the possibility of a bad outcome. Some participants valued and pursued prognostic information as a means of coping with this awareness, suggesting that prognostic uncertainty causes FCR. However, most participants acknowledged fundamental limits to both the certainty and value of prognostic information, and engaged in various strategies aimed not at reducing but constructing and maintaining prognostic uncertainty as a means of sustaining hope in the possibility of a good outcome. Participants’ comments suggested that prognostic uncertainty, fear, and hope are connected by complex, bi-directional causal pathways mediated by processes that allow patients to cope with, construct, and maintain their uncertainty. A provisional dual-process theoretical model was developed to capture these pathways.

Conclusion

Among patients with OC, prognostic uncertainty is both a cause and an effect of FCR—a fear-inducing stimulus and a hope-sustaining response constructed and maintained through various strategies. More work is needed to elucidate the relationships between prognostic uncertainty, fear, and hope, to validate and refine our theoretical model, and to develop interventions to help patients with OC and other serious illnesses to achieve an optimal balance between these states.

"Reclaiming Control" Patient Acceptance and Adherence to HIV Post-Exposure Prophylaxis Following Sexual Assault

Sexual assault is an irrefutable trauma; an insult to the autonomy of the person forced into sexual acts. Sexual assault sequelae range from physical injury and acute traumatic stress, to pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (HIV PEP) following sexual assault may decrease the likelihood of HIV transmission. Many patients seeking healthcare post-sexual assault either do not initiate HIV PEP or do not complete the 28-day medication regimen. In this qualitative interpretive description, we interviewed sexual assault patients (N=11) about HIV PEP discussions/reactions, attitudes and understanding related to HIV and PEP, and barriers and facilitators of HIV PEP acceptance and adherence. Participants described a process of losing and reclaiming control throughout post-assault care and follow-up; and how this affected HIV PEP-related decision-making. Most HIV PEP decisions were described as a process of reclaiming control over one outcome while simultaneously losing control of another.

Availability and Quality of Web Resources for Parents of Children With Disability: Content Analysis and Usability Study

BACKGROUND

The internet is a valuable resource for parents of typical children, who are looking for information about their children's growth and development and how to boost them. However, for parents of children with special needs, especially for non-English-speaking parents, there are anecdotal reports stating that specific and accurate information is not available on the internet.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe the type of information available on the internet for French-speaking parents of children with disability as well as assess the quality of the information collected.

METHODS

We carried out a search of the existing relevant websites targeted at parents of children with disability. We used a validated instrument to extract structural, textual, and visual characteristics of these websites and evaluate their usability.

RESULTS

In all, 42 websites were analyzed; of these, the information had been validated by a trustworthy source in only 18 (43%) websites. Networking opportunities for parents were available in only 7 (17%) websites. Most websites provided information related to autism spectrum disorder (20/42, 42%) and learning disabilities (19/42, 45%), and only a few websites discussed other disability types such as behavorial disorders and developmental language disorders (4/42, 10% each). Community, social, and civic life (9/42, 22%); domestic life (12/42, 29%); and mobility (15/42, 36%) were the less frequently covered topics. With regard to the usability evaluation, 22 of the 42 (52%) websites received a global score <70%, whereas 20 (48%) scored ≥70.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the internet is an infinite source of information, it is not necessarily actionable for parents of children with disability. Some information remains difficult to find online, and networking opportunities with other parents dealing with similar challenges are scarce.

The impact of communicating uncertain test results in cancer genetic counseling: A systematic mixed studies review

OBJECTIVE

Cancer genetic counseling increasingly involves discussing uncertain test results, for example because multiple genes are sequenced simultaneously. This review was performed to provide insight into how counselors' communication of uncertain test results during genetic counseling for cancer affects counselors and counselees.

METHODS

A systematic mixed studies review was undertaken to review research on the effects of communicating uncertain test results. Four databases were searched using a PICO search strategy. Study findings of articles meeting the inclusion criteria were synthesized narratively.

RESULTS

Twenty-four articles were included. Uncertain test results encompassed either an inconclusive test result or a variant of unknown significance (VUS). Counselees involved almost exclusively women at risk of hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer. None of the articles reported effects on counselor outcomes. Counselee outcomes were categorized as cognitive, affective or behavioral. Interpretation of a VUS was overall reported as difficult, and counselees' distress and worry were repeatedly found to decrease over time after the discussion of any uncertain test result. For most other outcomes, findings were sparse and/or inconsistent.

CONCLUSION

Evidence on effects on counselee outcomes is scant and inconsistent. Future studies are warranted to provide insight into how counselees and counselors are affected.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Clinical practice could benefit from guidelines on how to address uncertain test results during pre- and posttest genetic consultations.

A qualitative exploration of clinicians' strategies to communicate risks to patients in the complex reality of clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Risk communication, situated in the model of shared decision making (SDM), is an essential element in daily clinical practice. The scientific literature makes a number of generic recommendations. Yet the application of risk communication remains a challenge in patient-clinician encounters. How clinicians actually communicate risk during consultations is not well understood. We aimed to explore the risk communication strategies used by clinicians and extract narratives and visualizations of those strategies to help inform medical education.

METHODS

In this qualitative descriptive study, we interviewed fifteen purposely sampled clinicians from several medical disciplines, who were familiar with the concept of SDM. Deductive and inductive content analysis was used during an iterative data collection and analyses process.

RESULTS

Our study identified various strategies reported to be used by clinicians to address the complexities of risk communication such as dealing with uncertainty. These included verbal, numerical and visual risk communication and framing. Clinicians were familiar with recommended risk formats such as natural frequencies and population pictograms. However, it became clear that clinicians' expertise and communication goals also play an important role in the risk talk. Clinicians try to lay a foundation for balanced decision-making and to incorporate patient preferences while faced with several challenges such as the dilemma of raising awareness but triggering anxiety or fan fear in patients. Consequently, they also use communication goals such as influencing mindset and reassuring patients. Additionally, clinicians frequently have to account for the illusion of certainty in the risk talk.

CONCLUSION

Risk communication is a multi-faceted construct that cannot be dealt with in isolation from the clinical context. For future research we recommend considering a more practical framework within the clinical setting and to take a goal-directed approach into account when investigating and teaching the topic. The patient perspective should also be addressed in further research.

Defining Undertreatment and Overtreatment in Older Adults With Cancer: A Scoping Literature Review

PURPOSE

The terms undertreatment and overtreatment are often used to describe inappropriate management of older adults with cancer. We conducted a comprehensive scoping review of the literature to clarify the meanings behind the use of the terms.

METHODS

We searched PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information), Embase (Elsevier), and CINAHL (EBSCO) for titles and abstracts that included the terms undertreatment or overtreatment with regard to older adults with cancer. We included all types of articles, cancer types, and treatments. Definitions of undertreatment and overtreatment were extracted, and categories underlying these definitions were derived through qualitative analysis. Within a random subset of articles, C.D. and K.P.L. independently performed this analysis to determine final categories and then independently assigned these categories to assess inter-rater reliability.

RESULTS

Articles using the terms undertreatment (n = 236), overtreatment (n = 71), or both (n = 51) met criteria for inclusion in our review (n = 256). Only 14 articles (5.5%) explicitly provided formal definitions; for the remaining, we inferred the implicit definitions from the terms' surrounding context. There was substantial agreement (κ = 0.81) between C.D. and K.P.L. in independently assigning categories of definitions within a random subset of 50 articles. Undertreatment most commonly implied less than recommended therapy (148; 62.7%) or less than recommended therapy associated with worse outcomes (88; 37.3%). Overtreatment most commonly implied intensive treatment of an older adult in whom the harms of treatment outweigh the benefits (38; 53.5%) or intensive treatment of a cancer not expected to affect an older adult in his/her remaining lifetime (33; 46.5%).

CONCLUSION

Undertreatment and overtreatment of older adults with cancer are imprecisely defined concepts. We propose new, more rigorous definitions that account for both oncologic factors and geriatric domains.

Conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science: Identifying commonly used tools through an interdisciplinary configurative review

This study provides a set of tools for conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science. Given that the concept of uncertainty is one that transcends disciplinary boundaries, an interdisciplinary configurative review was carried out incorporating the disciplines of medicine, environmental science and economics, in order to identify common themes which could have valuable applications to the discipline of forensic science. Critical Interpretive Synthesis was used to develop sub-synthetic and synthetic constructs which interpreted and synthesised the underlying evidence and codes. This study provides three toolkits, one each for conceptualisation, evaluation and communication. The study identified an underlying theme concerning the obstacles that would need to be overcome for the effective application of these toolkits and achieving effective conceptualisation, evaluation and communication of uncertainty in forensic science to lay-stakeholders. These toolkits offer a starting point for developing the conversation for achieving greater transparency in the communication of uncertainty. They also have the potential to offer stakeholders enhanced understanding of the nuances and limitations of forensic science evidence and enable more transparent evaluation and scrutiny of the reliability, relevance and probative value of forensic materials in a crime reconstruction.

Radiation risks and uncertainties: a scoping review to support communication and informed decision-making

Although radiation protection is challenged by many uncertainties, there is no systematic study investigating the definitions and types of these uncertainties. To address this gap, in this paper we offer a scoping review to comprehensively analyse, for the first time, peer-reviewed scientific articles (n = 33) related to uncertainties in the following radiation exposure situations: nuclear emergencies, decommissioning of nuclear/radiological installations and long-term radiological exposure situations (e.g. naturally occurring radioactive materials). The results suggest that firstly, there is no agreement regarding definitions of uncertainty, which is mainly defined based on its sources, types or categories rather than by its meaning. Secondly, different actors are faced with different types of uncertainties. Uncertainties of the scientific community are mostly data and methodology-driven (e.g. dose-response relationships), those of the decision-makers are related to the likely consequences of decision options and public reactions, while laypeople's uncertainties are mainly related to the trustworthiness of experts or the emotional potential of specific risk exposures. Furthermore, the majority of articles focus on the uncertainties of the scientific community, while those of the information receivers (i.e. decision-makers and laypeople) receive much less consideration. Finally, there was no difference in types of uncertainties across the different risk-related study areas analysed (radiation versus other risks). Based on these findings, we provide some preliminary recommendations regarding research on uncertainty related to radiation protection, as well as communication practices.

The effect of information on prostate cancer screening decision process: a discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer screening is controversial because of uncertainty about its benefits and risks. The aim of this survey was to reveal preferences of men concerning prostate cancer screening and to test the effect of an informative video on these preferences.

METHODS

A stated preferences questionnaire was sent by e-mail to men aged 50-75 with no history of prostate cancer. Half of them were randomly assigned to view an informative video. A discrete choice model was established to reveal men's preferences for six prostate cancer screening characteristics: mortality by prostate cancer, number of false positive and false negative results, number of overdiagnosis, out-of-pocket costs and recommended frequency.

RESULTS

A population-based sample composed by 1024 men filled in the entire questionnaire. Each attribute gave the expected sign except for overdiagnosis. The video seemed to increase the intention to abstain from prostate cancer screening.

CONCLUSIONS

The participants attached greater importance to a decrease in the number of false negatives and a reduction in prostate cancer mortality than to other risks such as the number of false positives and overdiagnosis. Further research is needed to help men make an informed choice regarding screening.

Autism-associated missense genetic variants impact locomotion and neurodevelopment in Caenorhabditis elegans

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) involves thousands of alleles in over 850 genes, but the current functional inference tools are not sufficient to predict phenotypic changes. As a result, the causal relationship of most of these genetic variants in the pathogenesis of ASD has not yet been demonstrated and an experimental method prioritizing missense alleles for further intensive analysis is crucial. For this purpose, we have designed a pipeline that uses Caenorhabditis elegans as a genetic model to screen for phenotype-changing missense alleles inferred from human ASD studies. We identified highly conserved human ASD-associated missense variants in their C. elegans orthologs, used a CRISPR/Cas9-mediated homology-directed knock-in strategy to generate missense mutants and analyzed their impact on behaviors and development via several broad-spectrum assays. All tested missense alleles were predicted to perturb protein function, but we found only 70% of them showed detectable phenotypic changes in morphology, locomotion or fecundity. Our findings indicate that certain missense variants in the C. elegans orthologs of human CACNA1D, CHD7, CHD8, CUL3, DLG4, GLRA2, NAA15, PTEN, SYNGAP1 and TPH2 impact neurodevelopment and movement functions, elevating these genes as candidates for future study into ASD. Our approach will help prioritize functionally important missense variants for detailed studies in vertebrate models and human cells.

Uncertainty and health literacy in dementia care

The number of dementia cases increases with age, and the prevalence of dementia at the age above 80 is approaching 20% in Taiwan. Dementia is not simply a neurological disorder, but also a long-term care issue in public health and a matter of social adaptation. Scientific discoveries about dementia diagnostics, therapeutics, and preventive strategy have become the focus of media attention, but always updated and overwhelmed, which appears to increase rather than decrease the uncertainty and complexity of health communication in dementia care. Health literacy is essential for patients to understand medical information, utilize medical resources, and make shared decisions; however, the capacity to handle health information is often compromised in older adults with cognitive decline. Both ends of the increased uncertainty in dementia science and the reduced capacity in older adults are major challenges in dementia care. Dementia literacy, defined as knowledge and beliefs regarding dementia that aid recognition, management, or prevention, plays a vital role in effective care risk assessment and communication. However, little is known about the current state of dementia literacy among older adults, people with dementia, and their caregivers, and how well the dementia care practice can be implemented at the individual level is questionable. Empowering caregivers with adequate dementia literacy and developing a risk communication model in practice will translate the power of knowledge to effective care strategies, thus ameliorating the caregiver burden and enhancing the life quality of people with dementia in the long run.