What Sexual Recidivism Rates Are Associated With Static-99R and Static-2002R Scores?

Does Being Over 60 Years Old at Index Offense Impact Sexual Recidivism Risk? A Large-Scale Comparison of Men Released Over the Age of 60

Research has consistently found risk for sexual recidivism drops as men convicted of a sexual offense age. One question that remains, however, is whether this age-related reduction in risk applies to men who commit their sexual offenses at an older age. The current study examined this question in a sample of 939 men who were screened for civil management and released to the community (mean follow-up = 6.33 years, SD = 3.98 years), by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of (a) 238 men convicted of sexual offenses committed over the age of 60 (Over-60 Index group), and (b) 701 men who committed sexual offenses under the age of 60 but who were released to the community over the age of 60 (Under-60 Index group). Even though the Under-60 Index group was significantly higher risk at release, the Over-60 Index group sexually recidivated at a significantly higher rate, a difference largely driven by the small group of men who had committed sexual offenses both under and over the age of 60. The Static-99R was a strong predictor of sexual recidivism regardless of age at sexual offending (i.e., just under 60, just over 60, or both under and over 60). The 2021 Routine Samples norms significantly overpredicted sexual recidivism for the Under-60 Index group and significantly underpredicted sexual recidivism for the Over-60 Index group, indicating that the use of the 2016 High Risk/High Needs norms could be more appropriate for the Over-60 Index group, particularly those men who sexually offended under the age of 60 before sexually offending over the age of 60.

Emotional Congruence with Children: An Empirical Examination of Different Models in Men with a History of Sexually Offending Against Children

Emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children (SOC). Based on previous research and theory, three models have been proposed to explain ECWC: Blockage, Sexual Domain, and Psychological Immaturity. Using structural equation modelling in a routine correctional sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences (n = 983), we found little support for all three of these models. Instead, we found that atypical sexual interests, alone, best explained ECWC, with a moderate relationship to ECWC. Using the predictors associated with each of the three models of ECWC, we identified three classes of men with a history of SOC who are high in ECWC using latent class analyses (n = 377). These three classes generally did not replicate the three models of ECWC. We instead propose three subgroups of men with histories of SOC who are high in ECWC, characterized respectively by: relationship deficits; youth and loneliness; and high sexual and general criminality. High levels of ECWC are predictive of a higher risk of sexual recidivism, regardless of class association; however, these subgroups are differentially at risk for some types of recidivism. Our findings suggest that ECWC is a multi-faceted construct, which is still not well understood.

Evaluating layperson interpretation of actuarial sexual violence risk data: A multi-method comparison of risk communication with attention to gender bias

Forensic clinicians are often called upon to help courts determine the likelihood that someone will continue to commit sexually violent acts in the future. The utility of these evaluations depends largely on how effectively the results are communicated to and understood by the trier of fact. Actuarial results, such as those commonly reported in sexual offense risk assessments, appear particularly challenging for laypersons to understand. Using a representative sample of 206 U.S. adults, this study examines three methods of communicating actuarial risk via simulated expert testimony on participants' ratings of a hypothetical evaluee's risk of sexual re-offending. The results suggested that all participants, regardless of how results were communicated, over-estimated the examinee's risk level relative to the expert's probabilistic findings, but tended to agree with the expert's categorical predictions. Participants who were only shown actuarial data consistently rated the evaluee as more dangerous and likely to commit future sexually violent acts. Additionally, it was found that gender significantly impacted participants' perceptions, such that women found the evaluee more dangerousness and desired greater social distance from him. This study has implications for best practices regarding expert communication of actuarial results in cases involving sexual violence.

Attachment Theory and Sexual Offending: Making the Connection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to discuss how attachment theory can be applied to explain sexual violence. Specifically, it discusses how the development of certain risk factors contributes to these behaviors and how attachment-based models can be used to address this issue through prevention and therapeutic interventions.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent research demonstrates that individuals who commit sexual offenses have higher rates of insecure attachment styles and that these styles are associated with a number of criminogenic risk factors associated with sexual offending. Such risk factors include cognitive processing difficulties, affect dysregulation, and challenges in interpersonal relationships, among others. Fortunately, treatment interventions have been shown to foster more secure attachment styles and reduce these risk factors. Attachment theory is a viable theory to both understand and intervene with those who have committed sexual violence to reduce the risk factors associated with sexual violence.

The Effect of Missing Item Data on the Relative Predictive Accuracy of Correctional Risk Assessment Tools

Missing data are pervasive in risk assessment but their impact on predictive accuracy has largely been unexplored. Common techniques for handling missing risk data include summing available items or proration; however, multiple imputation is a more defensible approach that has not been methodically tested against these simpler techniques. We compared the validity of these three missing data techniques across six conditions using STABLE-2007 (N = 4,286) and SARA-V2 (N = 455) assessments from men on community supervision in Canada. Condition 1 was the observed data (low missingness), and Conditions 2 to 6 were generated missing data conditions, whereby 1% to 50% of items per case were randomly deleted in 10% increments. Relative predictive accuracy was unaffected by missing data, and simpler techniques performed just as well as multiple imputation, but summed totals underestimated absolute risk. The current study therefore provides empirical justification for using proration when data are missing within a sample.

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Static-99R Norms and Cross-Cultural Validity for Australian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Men Convicted of Sexual Offences

This study examined Static-99R normative data and cross-cultural validity in a sample of 811 Aboriginal and 3257 non-Aboriginal Australian men (N = 4068) serving custodial orders for sexual offences in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R than non-Aboriginal men (M = 4.39 vs. 2.61) and were more likely to be represented in higher categories of risk. The Static-99R showed good discrimination performance for the total sample (AUC = .76; 95% CI = [.73-.80]) and acceptable calibration to expected reoffending rates for routine samples, with slight tendencies towards overestimation. Discrimination accuracy was lower for Aboriginal men (AUC = .68; 95% CI = [.60-77]) than non-Aboriginal men (AUC = .78; 95% CI = [.74-83]) although was significantly better than chance for both groups. Additional analyses indicated that cross-cultural differences in discrimination were partly associated with variance in sample composition between groups. This is the first Australian study to find evidence for significant predictive validity of the Static-99R with Aboriginal men, and while further research is needed, the results provide initial support for cross-cultural applications of the measure in local criminal justice settings.

Same Score, Different Audience, Different Message: Perceptions of Sex Offense Risk Depend on Static-99R Risk Level and Personality Factors of the Recipient

There are multiple ways to report risk scale results. Varela et al. (2014) found that Static-99R results were interpreted differently by prospective jurors based on risk level (high vs low) and an interaction between risk level and risk communication format (categorical, absolute estimate, and risk ratio). We adapted and extended Varela et al.'s (2014) study using updated Static-99R norms, recruiting a population-wide sample (n = 166), and adding variables assessing the personality factors 'cognitive motivation' (i.e., need for cognition) and 'attitudinal affect' (i.e., attitudes toward sex offenders, authoritarianism). We found a main effect of risk level and no effect of either communication format or the interaction between the two. Adding the personality variables increased explained variance from 9% to 34%, suggesting risk perception may be more about the personality of the person receiving the information than the information itself. We also found an interaction between attitudes toward sex offenders and risk level. Our results suggest risk perception might be better understood if personality factors are considered, particularly attitudes toward sex offenders. Because biases/personality of the person receiving the information are unknown in real world settings we argue that sharing multiple methods for communicating risk might be best and more inclusive.

Reentry in Practice: Sexual Offending, Self-Narratives, and the Implications of Stigma in Norway

Reentering society after serving a prison sentence involves many challenges and particularly so for one of the most stigmatized groups in modern society: people who have sexually offended. While most research on their reentry has been conducted in countries with Sex Offender Registration and Notification (SORN) laws, this study used Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) to qualitatively investigate the accounts and experiences of men released from prison after serving a sex offense conviction in Norway (n = 8). Results showed that despite less restrictive policies and a total absence of SORN laws, the social stigma linked to being convicted of such crimes severely affected the men. To some degree, they all experienced feelings of stress or anxiousness and they withdrew and isolated more. Their narratives highlight a need for increased social support and recognition from others in the reentry process. Subjective and societal consequences as well as practical implications are discussed.

Predictive Validity of Static-99R Among 8,207 Men Convicted of Sexual Crimes in South Korea: A Prospective Field Study

The accuracy of risk assessment tools for Asian populations has received relatively little research attention. This study evaluated one of the most widely used static risk assessment tools - Static-99R - for assessing the likelihood of recidivism among men convicted of a sexual crime in South Korea. Overall, this South Korean sample (N = 8207) appeared to have a higher risk (more paraphilic interests, more sexual/general criminality) than the Static-99R normative samples (who were mostly White individuals from Western countries). Despite the differences, Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists in South Korea, with AUC values similar to that observed in the normative samples (e.g., 0.72 for sexual recidivism). In terms of calibration, the observed sexual recidivism rates of the current sample were higher than the international routine/complete normative samples but lower than the high-risk/high-need normative samples (E/O = 0.75 and 1.26, respectively). Consequently, evaluators in South Korea can have reasonable confidence in the ability of Static-99R to rank individuals according to their relative likelihood of sexual recidivism.

Comparison of Community and Expert Samples in the Perceived Risk of Individuals Who Have Sexually Offended

Public and clinician attitudes are important to consider when studying the reentry of individuals who sexually offend. Uninformed public attitudes drive the continued use of ineffective policies like registries and residential restrictions in the United States, and experts must assess risk to decide what level of supervision and control to recommend upon release from prison. This study investigated whether actuarial feedback could change participant attitudes about recidivism risk and disposition. Association for the Treatment and Prevention of Sexual Abuse (ATSA) members and a sample from MTurk completed a survey using vignettes to assess recidivism risk and dispositional outcomes of individuals who had sexually offended and varied in their risk to reoffend. They received feedback about the individuals' Static-99R risk levels and adjusted their initial ratings. ATSA members were less punitive than MTurk participants, initially predicted risk that was more consistent with actuarial data, and adjusted when incorrect. MTurk participants held more negative attitudes towards individuals who sexually offend, as measured by the ATS-21. They adjusted their risk ratings more than ATSA members, though their estimates were still higher than the ATSA members after feedback. Implications for US public policy, including the recommendation to use actuarials across the country, are discussed.

Improving Our Risk Communication: Standardized Risk Levels for Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk-2002R

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk levels in two samples of individuals with a history of sexual offending (N = 1,081). Study 1 found reasonable correspondence between BARR-2002R scores and four of the five standardized risk levels (no Level V). Study 2 found that the profiles of individuals in Levels II, III, and IV were mostly consistent with expectations; however, individuals in the lowest risk level (Level I) had more criminogenic needs than expected based on the original descriptions of the Five-Levels. The Five-Level system was mostly successful when applied to BARR-2002R. Revisions to this system, or the inclusion of putatively dynamic risk factors and protective factors, may be required to improve alignment with the information provided by certain risk tools.

Police are Influenced by Anchoring and Risk When Allocating Resources for Scenario-based Intimate Partner Violence Cases

Sixty-six police officers were given four intimate partner violence (IPV) scenarios to rate for risk of future violence. At the start of the experiment, participants were provided with either a low-risk or high-risk "anchor" scenario of police attending an IPV incident. Next, participants were given three counterbalanced scenarios: high, medium, and low risk. Half the participants were given a structured professional judgment tool to guide their decisions. Participants given the low-risk anchor rated the following scenarios as being of greater risk than those given the high-risk anchor. Participants were consistent in identifying high-, medium-, and low-risk scenarios and the tool made no difference to these ratings. Participants were more confident in their higher risk judgments than their lower risk judgments. Officers distributed a disproportionately high amount of resources to the high-risk offenders and the results suggest that police officers can make decisions consistent with Risk-Need-Responsivity principles. However, anchoring effects and working in a context where violence is more severe and frequent has the potential to bias perceptions and make officers less sensitive to risk.

California Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Evaluations in the Field: Static-99R and Diagnostic Field Reliability

Tests and diagnoses used in sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations must be reliable, as reliability is foundational to validity. The current study contained a stratified sample of evaluations of 395 individuals referred as potential SVPs between 2012 and 2017. Each individual was initially evaluated by at least two experts. The sample included three groups: individuals not meeting SVP criteria (N = 200, or 400 evaluations), individuals meeting SVP criteria (N = 95, with 190 evaluations), and individuals where evaluators disagreed (N = 100, with 200 evaluations). The sample also included 200 subsequent independent evaluations on these "disagree" cases. Static-99R score intraclass coefficient (ICC) interrater reliability was good to excellent within each group and overall. Evaluators scored the Static-99R within one point of each other 87% of the time. Cohen's kappa diagnostic agreement for Pedophilic Disorder was substantial. ASPD and substance abuse kappa were in the "fair" range, while OSPD diagnoses in the positive group were at the "moderate" level of agreement. Ethnic differences in diagnoses were consistent with other studies, with equivalent Static-99R ICC values across ethnic groups. There were no significant differences between state civil servants versus contracted experts in Static-99R ratings or final determinations. The results suggest that Static-99R scores have acceptable reliability in these evaluations, and Pedophilic Disorder (the most common paraphilic disorder in our study) and OSPD can be reliably diagnosed. We discuss limitations of the study, as well as the need for care in high-stakes evaluations given the imperfect reliability of psychological measurements.

Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample

The Static-99R has been recommended for use as a first global screen for sorting out sex-convicted persons who are in need of further risk assessment. This study investigated the Static-99R's predictive validity based on a nonselected Norwegian sample (n = 858) of persons released from prison after having served a sex crime sentence. After a mean observation period of 2,183 days, 3.4% (n = 29) had recidivated to a new sex offense. A higher number of recidivists were found among those with higher Static-99R total scores. The predictive contribution from each of the ten Static-99R risk items was investigated using standard logistic regression, proportional hazard regression, and random forest classification algorithm. The overall results indicate that the Static-99R is relevant as a risk screen in a Norwegian context, providing similar results concerning predictive accuracy as previous studies.

What Works (or Does Not) in Community Risk Management for Persons Convicted of Sexual Offenses? A Contemporary Perspective

Contemporary data from the United States show that rates of sexual offending and reoffending have been in steady decline for decades. Nonetheless, nonprofessionals continue to view sexual violence as a community safety issue fraught with risk and uncertainty. The past 30 years have been witness to considerable research and practice in the assessment, treatment, and risk management of persons who have sexually offended. Gains have also been made in regard to prevention and citizen education. Modern day technologies include actuarial risk assessment instruments, measures of criminogenic need and treatment progress, refinements to treatment processes, and the establishment of evidence-based models. Legislative authorities in the United States and elsewhere have also attempted to affect risk in the community with, perhaps, lesser degrees of success. This article reviews current policies and practices, with a specific focus on what happens when offenders are released to the community (e.g., how public policies intended to track offenders and/or restrict their movements can negatively affect community reintegration). Comprehensive approaches to community sexual offender management are examined in addition to suggestions of unique approaches intended to ensure citizen buy-in and engagement.

Estimating the probability of sexual recidivism among men charged or convicted of sexual offences: Evidence-based guidance for applied evaluators

Risk assessment is routinely applied in forensic decision-making. Although relative risk information from risk scales is robust across diverse samples and settings, estimates of the absolute probability of sexual recidivism are not. Nonetheless, absolute recidivism estimates are still necessary in some evaluations. This paper summarizes research and offers guidance on evidence-based practices for assessing the probability of recidivism, organized largely around questions commonly asked in court. Overall, estimating the probability of sexual recidivism is difficult and should be undertaken with humility and circumspection. That being said, research favours empirical-actuarial risk tools for this task, more structured scales, and the use of multiple scales. Professional overrides of risk scale results should not be used under any circumstances. Paradoxically, however, professional judgement is still required in some circumstances. Risk scales do not consider all relevant risk factors, but the added value of external risk factors reaches a point of diminishing returns and may or may not be incremental (or worse, can degrade accuracy). There are reasons actuarial risk scales may both underestimate recidivism (e.g., undetected offending, short follow-ups) and overestimate recidivism (e.g., inclusion of sex offences not of interest in some referral questions, data on declining crime and recidivism rates, newer studies demonstrating overestimation of recidivism). Given all these considerations and the need for humility, in the absence of exceptional circumstances, I would not deviate too far from empirical estimates.

An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments' total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

'The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70-0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14-1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument's norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators' workbook should be used.

STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets.

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

Risk Factors for Sexual Offending in Self-Referred Men With Pedophilic Disorder: A Swedish Case-Control Study

Background

The risk of child sexual abuse among non-forensic, non-correctional patients with Pedophilic Disorder (PD) is largely unknown.

Methods

We recruited a consecutive sample of 55 help-seeking, non-correctional adult men diagnosed with DSM-5 PD at a university-affiliated sexual medicine outpatient unit in Sweden. PD participants were compared with 57 age-matched, non-clinical control men on four literature-based dynamic risk domains and self-rated child sexual abuse risk.

Results

PD participants scored higher than controls on all tested domains (0-3 points); expectedly so for pedophilic attraction (2.5 vs. 0.0, Cohen's d = 2.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): [1.91-2.89]), but also for sexual preoccupation (1.6 vs. 1.0, d = 1.11, 95% CI: [0.71-1.51]), impaired self-regulation (1.4 vs. 1.0, d = 0.44, 95% CI: [0.06 to 0.81]), impaired cognitive empathy and antisocial traits (0.9 vs. 0.1, d = 1.18, 95% CI: [0.78-1.59]), and self-rated child sexual abuse risk (1.0 vs. 0.0, d = 1.56, 95% CI: [1.13-1.98]). When summarizing all five domains into a pre-specified composite score (0-15 points), PD subjects scored substantially higher than matched control men (7.5 vs. 2.1, d = 2.12, 95% CI: [1.65-2.59]). Five (9%) PD participants self-reported any previous conviction for a contact child sexual offense and eight (15%) for possession of child sexual abuse material or non-contact sexual offending (adult or child victim). Eighteen subjects (34%) acknowledged past week, child-related sexual behaviors.

Conclusion

Self-referred, help-seeking men with PD scored higher (small to very large effect sizes) than non-clinical control men on psychiatric measures of dynamic risk of child sexual abuse suggested in prior research with correctional samples diagnosed with PD. Our findings, including the composite risk measure, might inform clinical practice, but needs validation against actual sexual offending behavior.

Paraphilia and Antisociality: Motivations for Sexual Offending May Differ for American Whites and Blacks

There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites (n =797) and Blacks (n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displayed higher antisociality. Despite the differences, however, the Static-99R, sexual recidivism risk tool, predicted equally well for both racial groups: Whites (area under the curve [AUC] = .76) and Blacks (AUC = .78). The findings suggest that there may be opportunities to improve treatment for the individuals at risk for sexual offending by tailoring interventions to the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of Whites and Blacks.

How Do Professionals Assess Sexual Recidivism Risk? An Updated Survey of Practices

Forensic evaluators may be assisted by comparing their use of instruments with that of their peers. This article reports the results of a 2017 survey of instrument use by forensic evaluators carrying out sexual recidivism risk assessments. Results are compared with a similar survey carried out in 2013. Analysis focuses primarily on adoption of more recently developed instruments and norms, and on assessment of criminogenic needs and protective factors, and secondarily, on exploring factors related to differences in evaluator practice. Findings indicate that most evaluators have now adopted modern actuarial instruments, with the Static-99R and Static-2002R being the most commonly used. Assessment of criminogenic needs is now common, with the STABLE-2007 being the most frequently used instrument. Evaluators are also increasingly likely to consider protective factors. While a majority of evaluators uses actuarial instruments, a substantial minority employs Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments. Few factors discriminated patterns of instrument use.

Sex Offender Supervision: Communication, Training, and Mutual Respect Are Necessary for Effective Collaboration Between Probation Officers and Therapists

Developed with the goal of preventing recidivism, contemporary sex offender supervision models focus on collaboration between probation officers and therapists. This exploratory study used focus groups to examine the working relationships between probation officers and therapists from two large U.S. urban probation departments. Overall, both probation officers and therapists were quite positive about their working relationships; they valued each others' roles and agreed that regular, accurate, and timely communication occurred frequently. Not all relationships, however, were effective. Several probation officers and therapists expressed dissatisfaction with poor communication, conflicts between the goals of therapy and probation, a lack of resources, and deficits in the policies they needed to adequately implement components of their supervision model (the containment model). Our findings suggest ways to structure sexual offender supervision that integrate the distinct orientations of probation officers and therapists into a collaboration that promotes public safety and work well for all.

Psychological treatment of problematic sexual interests: cross-country comparison

This paper reviews the use of psychotherapeutic approaches to treat individuals who have committed sex crimes and/or have problematic sexual interests (PSI); including types of psychotherapy used, descriptions of preventive and reintegration programmes, and highlighting specific theoretical controversies. In the second part, experts from Canada, the Czech Republic, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, who participated in an International Consensus Meeting held in Prague (2017), summarize treatment programmes in their countries. The comparison revealed some general findings: each country has variability between its own programmes; most countries have different programmes for people who are in custody and who are in the community; the state-directed treatment programmes are primarily focused on criminal individuals, while non-criminal individuals are treated in preventive programmes and/or in special clinics or are untreated; the presence of PSI in patients is acknowledged in most programmes, although specific programmes exclusively for individuals with PSI rarely exist. Studies on effectiveness are difficult to compare due to methodologic, political, and cultural differences. Further communication between more countries to share knowledge about successful treatments and preventive approaches is needed, especially enhanced international collaboration between researchers and clinicians to verify the effectiveness of current clinical and experimental program, rs.

The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released Sexual Offenders

Psychiatric diagnoses, static risk factors, and criminogenic needs at time of admission and release were examined in a mentally ill sample of psychiatrically detained sexual offenders. Although clinically found to be at low or even very low risk at discharge, 12% reoffended sexually over an average follow-up of 7 years. Psychotic disorders were present in only 5% of offenders, whereas 93% had a personality disorder diagnosis and 76% a paraphilic disorder diagnosis. Only exhibitionism and alcohol misuse were associated with relapse. Static risk factors captured by the Static-99 also did not significantly predict recidivism; however, the VRS-SO-a structured risk assessment tool that assesses criminogenic needs and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents, rated retrospectively on the present sample-predicted sexual recidivism as well as any new imprisonment or psychiatric placement. In particular, the sexual deviance factor of the VRS-SO had large in magnitude predictive associations with sexual reoffending, while treatment related changes assessed on this factor were significantly related to non-reoffending. Findings corroborate the advantages of structured risk assessment and structured change monitoring, particularly for complex clientele such as mentally ill sexual offenders.

Sex Offender Risk Assessment: Where Are We and Where Are We Going?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Risk assessment is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in the criminal justice system, informing virtually every decision made about offenders. This review, intended for researchers and practitioners, outlines some of the most important recent advances, emerging issues, and recommendations in sex offender risk assessment.

RECENT FINDINGS

The underlying nature and purpose of risk scales is reviewed, with implications for how we should evaluate them. Limits of recidivism probability estimates are discussed, and efforts to advance a common language for describing risk levels are highlighted. Advances in risk communication and field validity are summarized. The utility of protective risk factors in risk assessments is debated. Emerging areas in assessing offender change and assessments with child pornography offenders are discussed. Despite critical advances in the last few years, there are still important gaps in knowledge, particularly for risk communication, field implementation, offender change, and child pornography offenders.

Child Sexual Exploitation Materials Offenders

Abstract. The downloading and possession of Child Sexual Exploitation Materials (CSEM; also referred to as child pornography and indecent images of children) is a commonly convicted type of Internet sexual offenses. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on CSEM offenders. We first provide a summary of the key motivations of CSEM offenders, characteristics of CSEM offenders compared to contact sexual offenders against children, and important facilitative factors. We then review the factors related to recidivism among CSEM offenders. Finally, we describe current developments in the risk assessment, police case prioritization, and treatment approaches for CSEM offenders. Generally, CSEM offenders hold a sexual interest in children, are low on antisocial tendencies, and pose a low risk to reoffend (including contact sexual offending). Key facilitative factors for CSEM offending include access to children, offense-supportive cognitions, and sexual arousal. Factors indicative of antisocial tendencies (e.g., criminal history) are associated with an increased risk of reoffending. Lastly, we address atypical sexual interest, socio-affective dysfunctions, and strategies for maintaining an offense-free lifestyle as key treatment targets for CSEM offenders. Lower treatment dosage, however, should be considered given CSEM-exclusive offenders’ lower risk level for contact sexual offenses. We hope that this review will inspire others to explore the current research gaps in future studies.

Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

Calculating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Risk is the probability of an adverse event or outcome. In a previous article, I compared the Bayesian and Frequentist models of defining probability. This article compares the Bayesian and regression models of quantifying probability. Both approaches are widely used in the biomedical and behavioral sciences even though they yield different results. No consensus has emerged as to which is more appropriate. The choice between them remains controversial. This article concludes that the Bayesian model provides a viable alternative to logistic regression and may be more useful in quantifying the absolute recidivism risk of individual sex offenders. It shows how evaluators can easily calculate Bayesian probabilities and their associated credible intervals from an actuarial data set. Last, the article proposes a forensic practice guideline that evaluators do not conclude that an offender meets an absolute risk threshold unless the subject's risk exceeds the threshold by a credible margin of error.

Sex Offender Management Policies and Evidence-Based Recommendations for Registry Reform

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The goal of this paper is to improve evidence-based sex offender management systems through an understanding of the research findings related to the stated goals and unintended consequences of such laws.

RECENT FINDINGS

Assessment tools using factors derived from research studies can improve the identification of higher-risk sex offenders, so that more intensive or restrictive interventions can be tailored to those who pose the highest threat to community safety. After substantial time offense-free in the community, even higher-risk offenders become less likely to reoffend, suggesting that registration durations can be modified to utilize resources more efficiently. Several strategies for applying the evidence base to inform the utility, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of sex offender policies include (1) use of empirically derived risk assessment tools to classify offenders and modify registration requirements accordingly, (2) removal of juveniles from registries; and (3) elimination of residence restrictions.

Utility of the Static-99 and Static-99R With Latino Sex Offenders

The predictive validity of the Static-99 measures with ethnic minorities in the United States has only recently been assessed with mixed results. We assessed the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R with a sample of Latino sex offenders ( N = 483) as well as with two subsamples (U.S.-born, including Puerto Rico, and non-U.S.-born). The overall sexual recidivism rate was very low (1.9%). Both the Static-99 measures were able to predict sexual recidivism for offenders born in the United States and Puerto Rico, but neither was effective in doing so for other Latino immigrants. Calibration analyses ( N = 303) of the Static-99R were consistent with the literature and provided support for the potential use of the measure with Latinos born in the United States and Puerto Rico. These findings and their implications are discussed as they pertain to the assessment of Latino sex offenders.

Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration in the U.S. Army Using Administrative Data

INTRODUCTION

The Department of Defense uses a universal prevention framework for sexual assault prevention, with each branch implementing its own branch-wide programs. Intensive interventions exist, but would be cost effective only if targeted at high-risk personnel. This study developed actuarial models to identify male U.S. Army soldiers at high risk of administratively recorded sexual assault perpetration.

METHODS

This study investigated administratively recorded sexual assault perpetration among the 821,807 male Army soldiers serving 2004-2009. Administrative data were also used to operationalize the predictors. Penalized discrete-time (person-month) survival analysis (conducted in 2016) was used to select the smallest possible number of stable predictors to maximize number of sexual assaults among the 5% of soldiers with highest predicted risk of perpetration (top-ventile concentration of risk). Separate models were developed for assaults against non-family and intra-family adults and minors.

RESULTS

There were 4,640 male soldiers found to be perpetrators against non-family adults, 1,384 against non-family minors, 380 against intra-family adults, and 335 against intra-family minors. Top-ventile concentration of risk was 16.2%-20.2% predicting perpetration against non-family adults and minors and 34.2%-65.1% against intra-family adults and minors. Final predictors consisted largely of measures of prior crime involvement and the presence and treatment of mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Administrative data can be used to develop actuarial models that identify a high proportion of sexual assault perpetrators. If a system is developed to consolidate administrative predictors routinely, then predictions could be generated periodically to identify those in need of preventive intervention. Whether this would be cost effective, though, would depend on intervention costs, effectiveness, and competing risks.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

Sex Offender Risk Assessment and Management

Sexual violence is common and can have profound effects on victims compared with other forms of violence. This violence includes unwelcome and forced sexual contact on adults or children. Assessment of individuals who perpetrate sexual violence starts with a comprehensive biopsychosocial evaluation after a finding of guilt. Clinicians should then evaluate risk. Based on this assessment, a risk management plan should be developed, directed at the specific risk of the offender. Management options include external control (eg, incarceration, probation), psychotherapeutic interventions, pharmacologic interventions, and treatment of comorbidity. This organized approach aids in reducing the risk of future sexual violence.