Socioeconomic differences in working life expectancy: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

In the last decade, interest in working life expectancy (WLE) and socioeconomic differences in WLE has grown considerably. However, a comprehensive overview of the socioeconomic differences in WLE is lacking. The aim of this review is to systematically map the research literature to improve the insight on differences in WLE and healthy WLE (HWLE) by education, occupational class and income while using different ways of measuring and estimating WLE and to define future research needs.

METHODS

A systematic search was carried out in Web of Science, PubMed and EMBASE and complemented by relevant publications derived through screening of reference lists of the identified publications and expert knowledge. Reports on differences in WLE or HWLE by education, occupational class or income, published until November 2022, were included. Information on socioeconomic differences in WLE and HWLE was synthesized in absolute and relative terms.

RESULTS

A total of 26 reports from 21 studies on educational and occupational class differences in WLE or HWLE were included. No reports on income differences were found. On average, WLE in persons with low education is 30% (men) and 27% (women) shorter than in those with high education. The corresponding numbers for occupational class difference were 21% (men) and 27% (women). Low-educated persons were expected to lose more working years due to unemployment and disability retirement than high-educated persons.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified socioeconomic inequalities are highly relevant for policy makers and pose serious challenges for equitable pension policies. Many policy interventions aimed at increasing the length of working life follow a one-size-fits-all approach which does not take these inequalities into account. More research is needed on socioeconomic differences in HWLE and potential influences of income on working life duration.

Health-related exit from employment before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway: Analysis of population-wide register data 2013-2021

People with health problems experience various labor market disadvantages, such as hiring discrimination and heightened risk of firing, but the impact of deteriorating economic conditions on health-related labor market mobility remains poorly understood. The strength of the downturn/crisis will most likely make a difference. During minor downturns, when few employees are made redundant, health-related exit may occur frequently since employers prefer to keep those with good health on the payroll. However, during major economic crises, when large-scale downsizing and firm closures abound, there will be less discretionary room for employers. Thus, some mechanisms that usually are damaging for people with health problems (e.g., seniority rules and negative connotations), can be neutralized, ultimately leading to smaller health differentials in labor market outcomes. The current study used population-wide administrative register data, covering the years 2013-2021, to examine health-related exit from employment (to unemployment/social assistance) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway. The pandemic spurred a major crisis on the Norwegian labor market and led to a record-high unemployment rate of 10.6 percent in March 2020. Restricting the analytical samples to labor market insiders, linear probability models showed that previous recipients of health-related benefits had a higher unemployment likelihood in the pre-crisis year 2019. The relative importance of poor health changed non-negligibly, however, during the COVID-19 pandemic. When identical statistical analyses were run on the crisis year 2020, health-related exit from employment was dampened. Yet, this labor market equalization was not followed by smaller health differentials in work income in 2021, mainly because people with good health retained or regained decent-paying jobs when the economic conditions improved again. In conclusion, major economic crises can lead to an equalization of labor market disadvantages for people with health problems, but health-related inequalities may reemerge when the economy recovers.

In the wake of a crisis: Caught between housing and healthcare

Objective

To measure the association between housing insecurity and foregone medication due to cost among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ during the Recession.

Methods

Data came from Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ years from the 2006-2012 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Two-wave housing insecurity changes are evaluated as follows: (i) No insecurity, (ii) Persistent insecurity, (iii) Onset insecurity, and (iv) Onset security. We implemented a series of four weighted longitudinal General Estimating Equation (GEE) models, two minimally adjusted and two fully adjusted models, to estimate the probability of foregone medications due to cost between 2008 and 2012.

Results

Our study sample was restricted to non-proxy interviews of non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ in the 2006 wave (n = 9936) and their follow up visits (n = 8753; in 2008; n = 7464 in 2010; and n = 6594 in 2012). Results from our fully adjusted model indicated that the odds of foregone medication was 64% higher among individuals experiencing Onset insecurity versus No insecurity in 2008, and also generally larger for individuals experiencing Onset Insecurity versus Persistent Insecurity. Odds of foregone medication was also larger among females, minority versus non-Hispanic white adults, those reporting a chronic condition, those with higher medical expenditures, and those living in the South versus Northeast.

Conclusion

This study drew from nationally representative data to elucidate the disparate health and financial impacts of a crisis on Medicare beneficiaries who, despite health insurance coverage, displayed variability in foregone medication patterns. Our findings suggest that the onset of housing insecurity is most closely linked with unexpected acute economic shocks leading households with little time to adapt and forcing trade-offs in their prescription and other needs purchases. Both housing and healthcare policy implications exist from these findings including expansion of low-income housing units and rent relief post-recession as well as wider prescription drug coverage for Medicare adults.

Widening educational inequalities in mortality in more recent birth cohorts: a study of 14 European countries

BACKGROUND

Studies of period changes in educational inequalities in mortality have shown important changes over time. It is unknown whether a birth cohort perspective paints the same picture. We compared changes in inequalities in mortality between a period and cohort perspective and explored mortality trends among low-educated and high-educated birth cohorts.

DATA AND METHODS

In 14 European countries, we collected and harmonised all-cause and cause-specific mortality data by education for adults aged 30-79 years in the period 1971-2015. Data reordered by birth cohort cover persons born between 1902 and 1976. Using direct standardisation, we calculated comparative mortality figures and resulting absolute and relative inequalities in mortality between low educated and high educated by birth cohort, sex and period.

RESULTS

Using a period perspective, absolute educational inequalities in mortality were generally stable or declining, and relative inequalities were mostly increasing. Using a cohort perspective, both absolute and relative inequalities increased in recent birth cohorts in several countries, especially among women. Mortality generally decreased across successive birth cohorts among the high educated, driven by mortality decreases from all causes, with the strongest reductions for cardiovascular disease mortality. Among the low educated, mortality stabilised or increased in cohorts born since the 1930s in particular for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and alcohol-related causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in mortality inequalities by birth cohort are less favourable than by calendar period. In many European countries, trends among more recently born generations are worrying. If current trends among younger birth cohorts persist, educational inequalities in mortality may further widen.

Association between exposure to ambient PM2.5 and the health status in the mobile population from 338 cities in China

There are limited studies investigating the relationship between exposure to PM_2.5 and the health status among the mobile population. A cross-sectional analysis was performed in a nationally representative sample (2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey data) consisting of 169,469 mobile population. The ordered logistic regression model was used to examine the association between PM_2.5 and the health status in mobile population. Stratified analyses were performed to identify whether the association varied across gender, age group, and regions in China. Overall, every 10 μg/m³ increment in annual average PM_2.5 was associated with increased risk of poor self-reported health (OR = 1.021, 95% CI: 1.012-1.030). Mobile population aged 31-49 years and living in the central region suffers the highest PM_2.5-associated health risk (OR = 1.030, 95% CI: 1.019-1.042; OR = 1.095, 95% CI: 1.075-1.116). Our study suggests that PM_2.5 exposure was associated with an increased risk of poor self-reported health in mobile population, particularly among the population aged 31-49 years and people living in the central region of China. Policymakers should pay more attention to the vulnerable mobile population to tackle the health burden of ambient air pollution.

Long-term trends in urban-neighbourhood inequalities in cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation - multilevel analyses among individuals nested in Finnish post-code areas, 1991-2018

Background

High-income countries yield mixed evidence concerning the long-term trends of neighbourhood inequalities in health outcomes. The reasons why these inequalities persist and the factors driving any changes over time remain unclear. We analysed trends in general neighbourhood differences in mortality and hospitalisation, compared specific area-level and individual-level income effects, and assessed whether area-level effects were attributable to the neighbourhood population composition.

Methods

This prospective cohort study used individual-level register-linked information on sociodemographic factors covering the total population of 20-64-year-olds living in Finnish cities at the beginning of seven four-year periods in 1991-2018 (N = 952,493-1,200,431). We used random-effects Poisson models to assess all-cause and external mortality and hospitalisations among individuals nested in postal-code areas.

Results

The general contextual effect of the neighbourhood on all-cause mortality and hospitalisation was stable across time, with a median incidence-rate ratio of around 1.20-1.30, and it was mainly attributable to the population's composition. The association between area-level income and both mortality and hospitalisation was also robust and increased slightly even after accounting for population composition. The lowest neighbourhood income quintile in 2015-2018 had 15% (95% CI:5-26%) and 30% (95% CI:15-47%) excess mortality among men and women, respectively. These differentials were particularly large for external causes, but all area-level income associations were much smaller than the corresponding individual-level associations.

Conclusion

The overall relevance of the neighbourhood context to mortality and hospitalisation was stable across time, and generally attributable to population composition. However, there were substantial relative area-level income disparities between neighbourhoods, which had grown over time.

The emergence of international comparisons of health inequalities as reflected in the Scandinavian Journal of Public Health during its five decades

AIMS

We examined the development of research articles published in the Scandinavian Journal of Public Health and its predecessors Acta Socio-Medica Scandinavica and the Scandinavian Journal of Social Medicine from 1969 until 2020 to be able to identify the place of international comparisons of socioeconomic inequalities in health in the journal.

METHODS

Altogether 3237 research articles were screened to yield 126 comparative research articles. Examining full texts of the comparative articles led to 13 articles reporting comparisons of health inequalities.

RESULTS

The first one came out in 1972, but the rest only after the mid-1990s. The most common socioeconomic indicator was education, but also occupational class and income was used. The most common health indicator was self-rated health. The articles compared Nordic countries with each other, but also with non-Nordic countries. Although the number of comparative studies on health inequalities was relatively small, there were examples of well-designed studies using advanced methodology. We examined only published journal articles over the past five decades, not submitted but rejected papers.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Scandinavian Journal of Public Health and its predecessors, comparisons of health inequalities were few and emerged relatively late, that is, during the past two decades.

COVID-19 and changes in college student educational expectations and health by disability status

This study examines the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for college students' health and education, with special attention to variation by disability status. Disaster research supports the hypothesis that students with disabilities will experience higher-than-usual levels of pandemic-related stress, which could lead to re-evaluations of their educational expectations and declines in health. We evaluate this hypothesis by modeling changes in students' (1) mental and physical health and (2) educational expectations during the first year (spring of 2020 to spring of 2021) of the pandemic, using survey data collected from a population-based sample of college students in the state of Indiana. Although we observe across-the-board declines in both domains, students with disabilities were especially vulnerable. Mediation analyses suggest that differential exposure to financial and illness-related stressors is partially to blame, explaining a significant portion of the group differences between students with and without disabilities. We interpret these results as evidence of the unique vulnerabilities associated with disability status and its wide-ranging importance as a dimension of social stratification.

Adolescents' psychosocial well-being one year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically restricted adolescents' lives. We used nationwide Norwegian survey data from 2014-2021 (N = 227,258; ages 13-18) to examine psychosocial outcomes in adolescents before and during the pandemic. Multilevel models revealed higher depressive symptoms and less optimistic future life expectations during the pandemic, even when accounting for the measures' time trends. Moreover, alcohol and cannabis use decreased, and screen time increased. However, the effect sizes of all observed changes during the pandemic were small. Overall, conduct problems and satisfaction with social relationships remained stable. Girls, younger adolescents and adolescents from low socio-economic backgrounds showed more adverse changes during the pandemic. Estimated changes in psychosocial outcomes varied little with municipality infection rates and restrictions. These findings can inform means and interventions to reduce negative psychological outcomes associated with the pandemic and identify groups that need particular attention during and after the pandemic.

A Changing Landscape of Health Opportunity in the United States: Increases in the Strength of Association Between Childhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Adult Health Between the 1990s and the 2010s

Understanding the changing health consequences of childhood socioeconomic disadvantage (SED) is highly relevant to policy debates on inequality and national and state goals to improve population health. However, changes in the strength of association between childhood SED and adult health over historic time are largely unexamined in the United States. The present study begins to address this knowledge gap. Data were from 2 national samples of adults collected in 1995 (n = 7,108) and 2012 (n = 3,577) as part of the Midlife in the United States study. Three measures of childhood SED (parents' occupational prestige, childhood poverty exposure, and parents' education) were combined into an aggregate index and examined separately. The association between childhood SED (aggregate index) and 5 health outcomes (body mass index, waist circumference, chronic conditions, functional limitations, and self-rated health) was stronger in the 2012 sample than the 1995 sample, with the magnitude of associations being approximately twice as large in the more recent sample. Results persisted after adjusting for age, sex, race, marital status, and number of children, and were similar across all 3 measures of childhood SED. The findings suggest that the socioeconomic circumstances of childhood might have become a stronger predictor of adult health in recent decades.

Early life mental health and problematic drinking in mid-adulthood: evidence from two British birth cohorts

PURPOSE

Accumulating evidence suggests that externalising problems are consistently associated with alcohol use behaviours, but findings are inconsistent regarding the role of internalising problems. We investigate whether externalising and internalising problems are associated with problematic drinking in mid-adulthood, and whether potential associations are modified by age, sex and cohort.

METHODS

The National Child Development Study (NCDS58, n = 17,633) and 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70, n = 17,568) recruited new-borns in Great Britain in a single week in 1958 and 1970. Mental health was assessed with the Rutter Behaviour Questionnaire at ages 7, 11, and 16 in NCDS58 and ages 5, 10 and 16 in BCS70. Problematic drinking was measured with the CAGE questionnaire at age 33 in NCDS58 and age 34 in BCS70, and the AUDIT scale at age 44/45 in NCDS58 and age 46 in BCS70. Latent scores of externalising and internalising problems were added chronologically into lagged logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Externalising and internalising problems were associated in opposite directions with problematic drinking in mid-adulthood. Externalising was a risk factor (OR [95% CI] ranging from 1.06 [1.03, 1.10] to 1.11 [1.07, 1.15] for different ages), and internalising was a protective factor (OR [95% CI] ranging from 0.95 [0.92, 0.99] to 0.90 [0.86, 0.94] for different ages). Associations between early life mental health and mid-adulthood problematic drinking did not differ by developmental timing but were stronger in males.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides new insights on links of externalising and internalising difficulties with alcohol use and has implications for public policy in the UK.

The 2008 Financial Crisis and Changes in Lifestyle-Related Behaviors in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal: A Systematic Review

Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal have all been strongly affected by the 2008 financial crisis, which has had a negative impact on health. We systematically evaluated the effects of the crisis on lifestyle and socioeconomic inequalities. We conducted a literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and health economics databases for studies reporting quantitative comparisons before and after (or during) the crisis on the following risk behaviors: alcohol consumption, smoking habit, healthy diet, physical activity, and psychotropic drugs and substance abuse, without setting any age restrictions. We selected 34 original articles published between 2011 and 2020. During/after the crisis, alcohol consumption and substance abuse decreased, while psychotropic drug use increased. We also observed a deterioration in healthy eating behavior, with a reduction in fruit and vegetable consumption. Smoking habit and physical activity showed a more complex, controversial trend. Socioeconomic inequalities were affected by the recession, and the negative effects on unhealthy lifestyle tended to be more pronounced among the disadvantaged. These results suggest the need to implement health policies and interventions aimed at monitoring risk behaviors, with special regard to disadvantaged people, and considering the potential additional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effects of the Great Recession on Educational Disparities in Cardiometabolic Health

BACKGROUND

Macroeconomic crises can exaggerate existing educational disparities in health. Few studies, however, have examined whether macroeconomic crises get under the skin to affect educational disparities in health-related biological processes.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to examine the effect of the economic recession of 2008 (i.e., Great Recession) on educational disparities in cardiometabolic risk and self-reported psychological distress.

METHODS

Data were drawn from two subsamples of the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) study: the second wave of the MIDUS sample (pre-recession cohort, N = 985) and the refresher sample (post-recession cohort, N = 863). Educational attainment was categorized into high school education or less, some college, and bachelor's degree or higher. Outcomes included metabolic syndrome, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6, as well as self-reported perceived stress, depressive symptoms, and financial distress.

RESULTS

Results showed that having a bachelor's degree or higher (compared to having a high school education or less) was more strongly associated with decreased metabolic syndrome symptoms in the post-recession cohort than the pre-recession cohort, above and beyond demographic, health, and behavioral covariates. These findings did not extend to systemic inflammation or psychological distress.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that chronic macroeconomic stressors may widen the educational gap in physical health, particularly cardiometabolic health, by modifying biological and anthropometric risk factors implicated in metabolic syndrome.

Persistent inequality: evolution of psychosocial exposures at work among the salaried population in Spain between 2005 and 2016

PURPOSE

To assess the prevalence of poor mental health and of exposure to psychosocial risks among the working population in Spain in 2005, 2010 and 2016; to analyse the associations between workplace psychosocial exposures and mental health problems according to gender and occupation.

METHODS

Three representative samples of the Spanish working population were analysed, in 2005 (n = 7,023), 2010 (n = 4,979), and 2016 (n = 1,807). Prevalence ratios between mental health and the five dimensions - job demands, job control, social support, employment insecurity and insecurity over working conditions-were estimated using multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regressions. All the analyses were separated by gender and occupation.

RESULTS

In 2016, there were improvements in job control, job demands and social support, and deteriorations in employment insecurity and insecurity over working conditions. The risk of poor mental health among manual workers rose if they were exposed to high demands, low social support and high employment insecurity; among non-manual workers, the risk increased if they were exposed to high demands, low control, low social support and high insecurity over working conditions. There were no differences according to gender.

CONCLUSION

The new findings shed light on the evolution of the working conditions and health of the wage-earning population in Spain over the last 11 years. The stratification by gender and occupational group is relevant, since it allows a detailed analysis of the social disparities in the associations between psychosocial risks and mental health. The most vulnerable groups can be identified and preventive measures developed at source.

Lingering Impact of Starting Working Life During a Recession: Health Outcomes of Survivors of the "Employment Ice Age" (1993-2004) in Japan

Background

A growing amount of evidence demonstrates the adverse impacts of economic downturns on population health. However, the extent to which the macroeconomic conditions at labor market entry affect health outcomes in later life remains relatively understudied. This study focused on the health outcomes of the cohort who entered the labor market during the “employment ice age” (EIA; 1993–2004) in Japan, when young people had difficulty finding jobs after graduating from college or high school.

Methods

We used repeated cross-sectional data (N = 3,054,782; 1,500,618 men and 1,554,164 women) obtained from an 11-wave population-based nationwide survey conducted every 3 years from 1986 through 2016. We considered three health outcomes: being in hospital, subjective symptoms, and self-rated health (SRH). We employed two types of statistical analyses: an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, which controlled for age and period (wave) effects, and a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis, in which the EIA experience was regarded as a treatment.

Results

The APC analysis confirmed the relative disadvantage of the EIA cohort for all three outcomes; for instance, the odds ratio of poor SRH for the EIA cohort was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.38) for men and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.17–1.34) for women. The DiD analysis confirmed the robustness of these results, especially for men.

Conclusions

The results underscored the lingering impact of the macroeconomic conditions at labor market entry on health outcomes in later life in Japan.

Can changes in spending on health and social care explain the recent mortality trends in Scotland? A protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

There have been steady reductions in mortality rates in the majority of high-income countries, including Scotland, since 1945. However, reductions in mortality rates have slowed down since 2012-2014 in these nations; and have reversed in some cases. Deaths among those aged 55+ explain a large amount of these changing mortality trends in Scotland. Increased pressures on health and social care services have been suggested as one factor explaining these changes. This paper outlines a protocol for the approach to testing the extent to which health and social care pressures can explain recent mortality trends in Scotland. Although a slower rate of mortality improvements have affected people of all ages, certain ages have been more negatively affected than the others. The current analyses will be run by age-band to test if the service pressure-mortality link varies across age-group.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This will be an observational ecological study based on the Scottish population. The exposures of interest will be the absolute (primary outcome) and percentage (secondary outcome) change in real terms per capita spending on social and healthcare services between 2011 and 2017. The outcome of interest will be the absolute (primary outcome) and percentage (secondary outcome) change in age-standardised mortality rate between 2012 and 2018 for men and women separately. The units of analysis will be the 32 local authorities and the 14 territorial health boards. The analyses will be run for both all age-groups combined and for the following age bands: <1, 1-15, 16-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+.A series of descriptive analyses will summarise the distribution of health and social care expenditure and mortality trends between 2011 and 2018. Linear regression analysis will be used to investigate the direct association between health care spending and mortality rates.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The data used in this study will be publicly available and aggregated and will not be individually identifiable; therefore, ethical committee approval is not needed. This work will not result in the creation of a new data set. On completion, the study will be stored within the National Health Service research governance system. All of the results will be published once they have been shared with partner agencies.

Socioeconomic inequalities in children's health-related quality of life according to weight status

OBJECTIVES

This study explores the association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among Portuguese children according to their weight status.

METHODS

A total of 1215 primary school-aged children (mean age 8.78 years) from three Portuguese districts (Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra) were assessed during 2016/2017. Father and mother's education (low, medium, high) and work status (employed, unemployed/retired) were used as SEP indicators. Self-reported HRQoL was assessed with the KIDSCREEN-27. Height and weight were objectively measured and body mass index categorized in normal, overweight or obese. Age, sex, and district-adjusted linear regression models were fitted to estimate associations between SEP indicators and HRQoL dimensions, according to weight status.

RESULTS

We found that 24.9% of children were categorized as having overweight/obesity. The mean scores of the Physical Well-Being, and School Environment dimensions of HRQoL were lower among children classified with overweight/obesity compared to children with normal weight (57.21 vs 54.11, P < .001 and 57.85 vs 56.04, P = .010, respectively). Father's education was significantly associated with all HRQoL dimensions in children with a normal weight, but the same was not observed among children presenting overweight/obesity. An increase in the level of maternal education was also significantly associated with all HRQoL dimensions among children classified with a normal weight, and only for the School Environment dimension among children classified with overweight/obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest the presence of socioeconomic inequalities in self-reported HRQoL from early age, particularly among children with normal weight.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Small-for-Gestational-Age Births Before and During the Economic Crisis: An Ecologic Study of Trends in 13 Spanish Cities

Economic recessions can increase socioeconomic inequalities in health. The objective of this study was to analyze socioeconomic inequalities in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) births before and during the Spanish economic crisis. We conducted an ecological study of trends based on 2 periods before the crisis (1999-2003 and 2004-2008) and another during the crisis (2009-2013). The study population was Spanish women resident in 13 cities who had given birth during 1999-2013. The prevalence of SGA was calculated for each census tract. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to obtain the prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% credible intervals (CI). We analyzed the association between SGA and socioeconomic deprivation in each period for each city and for 3 age groups. The PR was above 1 and statistically significant for all 3 time periods in most of the 13 cities. The differences in PR between periods were only statistically significant for Madrid (PR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.48-1.65 for 1999-2003; PR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.19-1.38 for 2004-2008) and Barcelona (PR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.87-1.12 for 2004-2008; PR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.05-1.36 for 2009-2013). Socioeconomic inequalities in SGA births in small areas (census tracts) of most Spanish cities studied remained stable before and during the economic crisis.

Is austerity responsible for the recent change in mortality trends across high-income nations? A protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality rates in many high-income countries have changed from their long-term trends since around 2011. This paper sets out a protocol for testing the extent to which economic austerity can explain the variance in recent mortality trends across high-income countries.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an ecological natural experiment study, which will use regression adjustment to account for differences in exposure, outcomes and confounding. All high-income countries with available data will be included in the sample. The timing of any changes in the trends for four measures of austerity (the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index, real per capita government expenditure, public social spending and the cyclically adjusted primary balance) will be identified and the cumulative difference in exposure to these measures thereafter will be calculated. These will be regressed against the difference in the mean annual change in life expectancy, mortality rates and lifespan variation compared with the previous trends, with an initial lag of 2 years after the identified change point in the exposure measure. The role of underemployment and individual incomes as outcomes in their own right and as mediating any relationship between austerity and mortality will also be considered. Sensitivity analyses varying the lag period to 0 and 5 years, and adjusting for recession, will be undertaken.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All of the data used for this study are publicly available, aggregated datasets with no individuals identifiable. There is, therefore, no requirement for ethical committee approval for the study. The study will be lodged within the National Health Service research governance system. All results of the study will be published following sharing with partner agencies. No new datasets will be created as part of this work for deposition or curation.

Economic fluctuations and long-term trends in depression: a repeated cross-sectional study in Estonia 2004-2016

Background

In the 2000s, the Baltic countries experienced unprecedented credit-driven economic growth that was followed by a deep recession. This study examined the impact of profound macroeconomic changes on population mental health in Estonia in 2004–2016.

Methods

Data on 17 794 individuals in the 20–64 age group were obtained from seven nationally representative cross-sectional surveys. The prevalence of past 30-day depression was calculated for men and women further stratified by sociodemographic characteristics. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess whether these characteristics were associated with the yearly variation in depression.

Results

In 2006, the adjusted prevalence ratio for depression was 0.77 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.93) for men and 0.85 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.97) for women as compared with 2004; in 2010, the prevalence ratio as compared with 2008 for both men and women was 1.22 (95% CIs 1.04 to 1.43 and 1.09 to 1.37, respectively). Among men, the increase in the prevalence of depression in 2008–2010 was statistically significant for 35–64 year olds, ethnic Estonians, those who were married, mid-educated or were employed, whereas among women, a significant increase was observed in 50–64 year olds, Estonians and non-Estonians, those who were not-married, were highly educated or mid-educated, in the mid-income group or were employed.

Conclusions

Population mental health is responsive to macroeconomic changes. In less wealthy high-income countries, the greater impact of recession on depression among advantaged groups may relate to a higher debt burden coupled with job insecurity.