Incorporating estimands into clinical trial statistical analysis plans

Current developments of the estimand concept

Since the introduction of the estimand in therapeutical studies, several adaptions have been developed. This short article highlights the important aspects of the estimand concept. A literature research was conducted to identify different extensions to this framework. Different modified strategies for intercurrent events are presented, as well as examples of methods to implement the estimand in clinical studies. The article reflects that the estimand is an ongoing research field with further exploration.

Statistical methods for clinical trials interrupted by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic: A review

Cancellation or delay of non-essential medical interventions, limitation of face-to-face assessments or outpatient attendance due to lockdown restrictions, illness or fear of hospital or healthcare centre visits, and halting of research to allow diversion of healthcare resources to focus on the pandemic led to the interruption of many clinical trials during the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Appropriate analysis approaches are now required for these interrupted trials. In trials with long follow-up and longitudinal outcomes, data may be available on early outcomes for many patients for whom final, primary outcome data were not observed. A natural question is then how these early data can best be used in the trial analysis. Although recommendations are available from regulators, funders, and methodologists, there is a lack of a review of recent work addressing this problem. This article reports a review of recent methods that can be used in the setting of the analysis of interrupted clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes with monotone missingness. A search for methodological papers published during the period 2020-2023 identified 43 relevant publications. We categorised these articles under the four broad themes of missing value imputation, modelling and covariate adjustment, simulation and estimands. Although motivated by the interruption due to SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting disease, the papers reviewed and methods discussed are also relevant to clinical trials interrupted for other reasons, with follow-up discontinued.

Advancing randomized controlled trial methodologies: The place of innovative trial design in eating disorders research

Randomized controlled trials can be used to generate evidence on the efficacy and safety of new treatments in eating disorders research. Many of the trials previously conducted in this area have been deemed to be of low quality, in part due to a number of practical constraints. This article provides an overview of established and more innovative clinical trial designs, accompanied by pertinent examples, to highlight how design choices can enhance flexibility and improve efficiency of both resource allocation and participant involvement. Trial designs include individually randomized, cluster randomized, and designs with randomizations at multiple time points and/or addressing several research questions (master protocol studies). Design features include the use of adaptations and considerations for pragmatic or registry-based trials. The appropriate choice of trial design, together with rigorous trial conduct, reporting and analysis, can establish high-quality evidence to advance knowledge in the field. It is anticipated that this article will provide a broad and contemporary introduction to trial designs and will help researchers make informed trial design choices for improved testing of new interventions in eating disorders. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: There is a paucity of high quality randomized controlled trials that have been conducted in eating disorders, highlighting the need to identify where efficiency gains in trial design may be possible to advance the eating disorder research field. We provide an overview of some key trial designs and features which may offer solutions to practical constraints and increase trial efficiency.

Composite event-free-survival as an endpoint in oncology drug evaluation: Review and guidance perspectives from the Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS)

BACKGROUND

The use of right-censored composite endpoints, such as progression-free survival, has been questioned in haemato-oncology trials due to potential bias in estimated treatment effect. This may impact the accuracy of health technology evaluations. We hypothesized that there is heterogeneity and potential sources of bias in the reporting of composite endpoints to health technology assessment (HTA) bodies.

METHODS

We reviewed the submissions for reimbursement of oncology drugs in 2021 and 2022 that used a composite endpoint in the pivotal trial, after appraisal by the French HTA body. The retrieved information included the clinical study report, protocol, and statistical analysis plan submitted by the industry. All events of the composite endpoint and all causes of censored observations were measured. The design characteristics and treatment effect estimates were recorded.

FINDINGS

Seventy-six submissions were selected, including seven without a right-censored endpoint and four evaluating associations, resulting in 65 analysed records: 17 for haematological and 48 for solid tumours. Out these 65 submissions, 47 (72·3%) used a randomized controlled design, and 18 (27·7%) a non-comparative design. The most frequently used composite endpoint was progression-free survival, used in 54 (83·1%) of the submissions. Censoring was possibly informative in 51 (92·7%) cases, mostly due to the onset of new treatment (44/51, 86·3%) and/or discontinuation of follow-up (33/51, 64·7%). In contrast, 38 (58·5%) trials reported a quantification of censored observations, with only 12/51 (23·5%) quantifying the informative ones. The estimated treatment effect on the composite outcome increased with the amount of censoring, suggesting a higher benefit of the drug, but remained below that on survival with poor evidence of surrogacy (R-squared=0·23).

INTERPRETATION

Clinical study reports should be improved in terms of reporting censoring, while stakeholders should be aware of this potential source of bias. At a minimum, sensitivity analysis that ignores intercurrent events should be requested.

Making causal inferences from transactional data: A narrative review of opportunities and challenges when implementing the target trial framework

The target trial framework has emerged as a powerful tool for addressing causal questions in clinical practice and in public health. In the healthcare sector, where decision-making is increasingly data-driven, transactional databases, such as electronic health records (EHR) and insurance claims, present an untapped potential for answering complex causal questions. This narrative review explores the potential of the integration of the target trial framework with real-world data to enhance healthcare decision-making processes. We outline essential elements of the target trial framework, and identify pertinent challenges in data quality, privacy concerns, and methodological limitations, proposing solutions to overcome these obstacles and optimize the framework's application.

Immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of a half- versus full-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) booster following a two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BBIBP-CorV, or Gam-COVID-Vac priming schedule in Mongolia: a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Background

COVID-19 vaccine booster doses restore vaccine effectiveness lost from waning immunity and emerging variants. Fractional dosing may improve COVID-19 booster acceptability and uptake and will reduce the per-dose cost of COVID-19 booster programmes. We sought to quantify the immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety of a half-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) booster relative to the standard formulation.

Methods

This randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial recruited adults in Mongolia primed with a two-dose homologous ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca, n = 129 participants), BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm (Beijing), n = 399), or Gam-COVID-Vac (Gamaleya, n = 70) schedule. Participants were randomised (1:1) to receive a 15 μg (half-dose) or 30 μg (full-dose) BNT162b2 booster. Participants and study staff assessing reactogenicity were blinded up to day 28. Co-primary endpoints were Wuhan-Hu-1 anti-spike S1 IgG seroresponse 28 days post-boosting and reactogenicity within 7 days of boosting. The non-inferiority margin for the absolute difference in seroresponse was -10%. Differences in seroresponse were estimated from logistic regression with marginal standardisation. Geometric mean ratios of IgG were also estimated. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05265065.

Findings

Between May 27th and September 30th, 2022, 601 participants were randomized to full-dose BNT162b2 (n = 300) or half-dose (n = 301). 598 were included in safety analyses, and 587 in immunological analyses. The frequency of grade 3-4 reactions was similar between arms (half-dose: 4/299 [1.3%]; full-dose: 6/299 [2.0%]). Across all severity grades, half-dose recipients reported fewer local and systemic reactions (60% versus 72% and 25% versus 32%, respectively). Seroresponse was 84.7% (250/295) and 86.6% (253/292) in the half-dose and full-dose arms, respectively (Difference: -2.8%; 95% CI -7.7, 2.1). Geometric mean IgG titres were similar in those receiving full and half-dose boosters for the ChAdOx1 and BBIBP-CorV primed groups, but lower in the half-dose arm in Gam-COVID-Vac-primed participants (GMR: 0.71; 95% CI 0.54, 0.93).

Interpretation

Half-dose BNT162b2 boosting elicited an immune response that was non-inferior to a full-dose, with fewer reactions, in adults primed with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BBIBP-CorV. Half-dose boosting may not be suitable in adults primed with Gam-COVID-Vac. Half-dose BNT162b2 boosting may be considered in populations primed with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BBIBP-CorV.

Funding

Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).

PROMISE: effect of protein supplementation on fat-free mass preservation after bariatric surgery, a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Protein malnutrition after bariatric surgery is a severe complication and leads to significant morbidity. Previous studies have shown that protein intake and physical activity are the most important factors in the preservation of fat-free mass during weight loss. Low protein intake is very common in patients undergoing bariatric surgery despite dietary counseling. Protein powder supplements might help patients to achieve the protein intake recommendations after bariatric surgery and could therefore contribute to preserve fat-free mass. This double-blind randomized placebo-controlled intervention study aims to assess the effect of a daily consumed clear protein powder shake during the first 6 months after bariatric surgery on fat-free mass loss in the first 12 months after laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Inclusion will take place at the outpatient clinic of the bariatric expertise center for obesity of the Maasstad Hospital. Patients will be randomly assigned to either the intervention or control group before surgery. The intervention group will receive a clear protein powder shake of 200 ml containing 20 g of whey protein dissolved in water which should be taken daily during the first 6 months after LRYGB on top of their normal postoperative diet. The control group will receive an isocaloric, clear, placebo shake containing maltodextrine. Postoperative rehabilitation and physiotherapeutical guidance will be standardized and similar in both groups. Also, both groups will receive the same dietary advice from specialized dieticians. The main study parameter is the percentage of fat-free mass loss 6 months after surgery, assessed by multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MF-BIA).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol, version 2 (February 20, 2022) has been approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committees United (MEC-U) (NL 80414.100.22). The results of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05570474. Registered on October 5, 2022.

Intratracheal budesonide mixed with surfactant to increase survival free of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants: statistical analysis plan for the international, multicenter, randomized PLUSS trial

BACKGROUND

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), an inflammatory-mediated chronic lung disease, is common in extremely preterm infants born before 28 weeks' gestation and is associated with an increased risk of adverse neurodevelopmental and respiratory outcomes in childhood. Effective and safe prophylactic therapies for BPD are urgently required. Systemic corticosteroids reduce rates of BPD in the short term but are associated with poorer neurodevelopmental outcomes if given to ventilated infants in the first week after birth. Intratracheal administration of corticosteroid admixed with exogenous surfactant could overcome these concerns by minimizing systemic sequelae. Several small, randomized trials have found intratracheal budesonide in a surfactant vehicle to be a promising therapy to increase survival free of BPD. The primary objective of the PLUSS trial is to determine whether intratracheal budesonide mixed with surfactant increases survival free of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age (PMA) in extremely preterm infants born before 28 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

An international, multicenter, double-blinded, randomized trial of intratracheal budesonide (a corticosteroid) mixed with surfactant for extremely preterm infants to increase survival free of BPD at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age (PMA; primary outcome). Extremely preterm infants aged < 48 h after birth are eligible if (1) they are mechanically ventilated, or (2) they are receiving non-invasive respiratory support and there is a clinical decision to treat with surfactant. The intervention is budesonide (0.25 mg/kg) mixed with poractant alfa (200 mg/kg first intervention, 100 mg/kg if second intervention), administered intratracheally via an endotracheal tube or thin catheter. The comparator is poractant alfa alone (at the same doses). Secondary outcomes include the components of the primary outcome (death, BPD prior to or at 36 weeks' PMA), and potential systemic side effects of corticosteroids. Longer-term outcomes will be published separately, and include cost-effectiveness, early childhood health until 2 years of age, and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 2 years of age (corrected for prematurity).

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PLAN

A sample size of 1038 infants (519 in each group) is required to provide 90% power to detect a relative increase in survival free of BPD of 20% (an absolute increase of 10%), from the anticipated event rate of 50% in the control arm to 60% in the intervention (budesonide) arm, alpha error 0.05. To allow for up to 2% of study withdrawals or losses to follow-up, PLUSS aimed to enroll a total of 1060 infants (530 in each arm). The binary primary outcome will be reported as the number and percentage of infants who were alive without BPD at 36 weeks' PMA for each randomization group. To estimate the difference in risk (with 95% CI), between the treatment and control arms, binary regression (a generalized linear multivariable model with an identity link function and binomial distribution) will be used. Along with the primary outcome, the individual components of the primary outcome (death, and physiological BPD at 36 weeks' PMA), will be reported by randomization group and, again, binary regression will be used to estimate the risk difference between the two treatment groups for survival and physiological BPD at 36 weeks' PMA.

Design and analysis considerations for early phase clinical trials in hepatitis B (HBV) cure research: the ACTG A5394 study in persons with both HIV and HBV

With growing interest and efforts to achieve a hepatitis B (HBV) cure, HBV therapeutics have increasingly entered the clinical testing phase. In designing an early phase clinical trial aimed at HBV cure, the heterogeneity in participants and the choice of a biomarker endpoint that signals a cure requires careful consideration. We describe the key elements to consider during the development of HBV clinical trials aimed at a functional cure, and how we have addressed them in the design of a phase II AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) study, A5394 (NCT05551273). The trial we present is for persons with both HIV and HBV, a unique population that has much to gain from an HBV cure. Our decisions on the design elements are specific to the study agent and the targeted population, but our deliberations may be informative in the emerging field of early phase HBV trials aimed at cure.

Pitavastatin to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease in HIV Infection

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease is increased among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, so data regarding primary prevention strategies in this population are needed.

METHODS

In this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned 7769 participants with HIV infection with a low-to-moderate risk of cardiovascular disease who were receiving antiretroviral therapy to receive daily pitavastatin calcium (at a dose of 4 mg) or placebo. The primary outcome was the occurrence of a major adverse cardiovascular event, which was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral arterial ischemia, revascularization, or death from an undetermined cause.

RESULTS

The median age of the participants was 50 years (interquartile range, 45 to 55); the median CD4 count was 621 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 448 to 827), and the HIV RNA value was below quantification in 5250 of 5997 participants (87.5%) with available data. The trial was stopped early for efficacy after a median follow-up of 5.1 years (interquartile range, 4.3 to 5.9). The incidence of a major adverse cardiovascular event was 4.81 per 1000 person-years in the pitavastatin group and 7.32 per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48 to 0.90; P = 0.002). Muscle-related symptoms occurred in 91 participants (2.3%) in the pitavastatin group and in 53 (1.4%) in the placebo group; diabetes mellitus occurred in 206 participants (5.3%) and in 155 (4.0%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with HIV infection who received pitavastatin had a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event than those who received placebo over a median follow-up of 5.1 years. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; REPRIEVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02344290.).

Evolving a national clinical trials learning health system

Clinical trials generate key evidence to inform decision making, and also benefit participants directly. However, clinical trials frequently fail, often struggle to enroll participants, and are expensive. Part of the problem with trial conduct may be the disconnected nature of clinical trials, preventing rapid data sharing, generation of insights and targeted improvement interventions, and identification of knowledge gaps. In other areas of healthcare, a learning health system (LHS) has been proposed as a model to facilitate continuous learning and improvement. We propose that an LHS approach could greatly benefit clinical trials, allowing for continuous improvements to trial conduct and efficiency. A robust trial data sharing system, continuous analysis of trial enrollment and other success metrics, and development of targeted trial improvement interventions are potentially key components of a Trials LHS reflecting the learning cycle and allowing for continuous trial improvement. Through the development and use of a Trials LHS, clinical trials could be treated as a system, producing benefits to patients, advancing care, and decreasing costs for stakeholders.

Arthroscopic synovectomy versus intra-articular injection of corticosteroids for the management of refractory psoriatic or rheumatoid arthritis of the wrist: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial (ARCTIC trial)

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are inflammatory diseases that often affect the wrist and, when affected, can lead to impaired wrist function and progressive joint destruction if inadequately treated. Standard care consists primarily of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), often supported by systemic corticosteroids or intra-articular corticosteroid injections (IACSI). IACSI, despite their use worldwide, show poor response in a substantial group of patients. Arthroscopic synovectomy of the wrist is the surgical removal of synovitis with the goal to relieve pain and improve wrist function. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate wrist function following arthroscopic synovectomy compared to IACSI in therapy-resistant patients with rheumatoid or psoriatic arthritis. Secondary objectives include radiologic progress, disease activity, health-related quality of life, work participation and cost-effectiveness during a 1-year follow-up.

METHODS

This protocol describes a prospective, randomized controlled trial. RA and PsA patients are eligible with prominent wrist synovitis objectified by a rheumatologist, not responding to at least 3 months of conventional DMARDs and naïve to biological DMARDs. For 90% power, an expected loss to follow-up of 5%, an expected difference in mean Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score (PRWE, range 0-100) of 11 and α = 0.05, a total sample size of 80 patients will be sufficient to detect an effect size. Patients are randomized in a 1:1 ratio for arthroscopic synovectomy with deposition of corticosteroids or for IACSI. Removed synovial tissue will be stored for an ancillary study on disease profiling. The primary outcome is wrist function, measured with the PRWE score after 3 months. Secondary outcomes include wrist mobility and grip strength, pain scores, DAS28, EQ-5D-5L, disease progression on ultrasound and radiographs, complications and secondary treatment. Additionally, a cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed, based on healthcare costs (iMCQ questionnaire) and productivity loss (iPCQ questionnaire). Follow-up will be scheduled at 3, 6 and 12 months. Patient burden is minimized by combining study visits with regular follow-ups.

DISCUSSION

Persistent wrist arthritis continues to be a problem for patients with rheumatic joint disease leading to disability. This is the first randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect, safety and feasibility of arthroscopic synovectomy of the wrist in these patients compared to IACSI.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Dutch trial registry (CCMO), NL74744.100.20. Registered on 30 November 2020.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov NCT04755127. Registered after the start of inclusion on 15 February 2021.