A meta-analysis of the effects of episodic future thinking on delay discounting

The perceived controllability of negatively-valenced episodic future thinking modulates delay discounting

Intertemporal decision-making is important for both economy and physical health. Nevertheless, in daily life, individuals tend to prefer immediate and smaller rewards to delayed and larger rewards, which is known as delay discounting (DD). Episodic future thinking (EFT) has been proven to influence DD. However, there is still no inconsistent conclusion on the effect of negative EFT on DD. Considering the perceived controllability of negative EFT may address the issue (Controllability refers to the extent to which progress and result of an event could be controlled by ourselves). In the current study, we manipulated EFT conditions (baseline, neutral EFT, negative-controllable EFT and negative-uncontrollable EFT), delayed time (i.e. 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 3 years) and reward magnitude (small, large). We mainly found that when experiencing negative-uncontrollable EFT compared to negative-controllable EFT in the delayed time of 6 months with large rewards, individuals chose more delayed rewards, suggesting that negative-uncontrollable EFT effectively reduced DD under conditions of both large-magnitude reward and longer delayed time. The current study provides new insight for healthy groups on optimising EFT. In that case, individuals are able to gain long-term benefits in financial management and healthcare.

Episodic future thinking improves intertemporal choice and food choice in individuals with higher weight: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Episodic future thinking (EFT) strengthens self-regulation abilities by increasing the perceived value of long-term reinforcements and reducing impulsive choice in delay discounting tasks. As such, EFT interventions have the potential to improve dietary and eating-related decision-making in individuals with obesity or binge eating symptoms, conditions associated with elevated delay discounting. Here, we meta-analyzed evidence from 12 studies that assessed whether EFT interventions improve delay discounting and real-world food choice compared to control interventions. Included studies involved 951 adults with overweight or obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥25). There were no studies involving participants with binge eating disorder. EFT intervention pooled effects were significant, improving delay discounting with a medium effect, g = 0.55, p < 0.0001, and subsequent food choice outcomes with a small effect, g = 0.31, p < 0.01. Notably, our review is the first to analyze mechanisms of effect in this population, demonstrating that improvements were greater when temporal horizons of EFT episodes were aligned with delay discounting tasks and more distant horizons predicted far-transfer to subsequent dietary and eating-related choices. Our findings thus show that EFT is an effective intervention for individuals with higher weight at risk of adverse health consequences.

Why might animals remember? A functional framework for episodic memory research in comparative psychology

One of Clayton's major contributions to our understanding of animal minds has been her work on episodic-like memory. A central reason for the success of this work was its focus on ecological validity: rather than looking for episodic memory for arbitrary stimuli in artificial contexts, focussing on contexts in which episodic memory would serve a biological function such as food caching. This review aims to deepen this insight by surveying the numerous functions that have been proposed for episodic memory, articulating a philosophically grounded framework for understanding what exactly functions are, and drawing on these to make suggestions for future directions in the comparative cognitive psychology of episodic memory. Our review suggests four key insights. First, episodic memory may have more than one function and may have different functions in different species. Second, cross-disciplinary work is key to developing a functional account of episodic memory. Third, there is scope for further theoretical elaboration of proposals relating episodic memory to food caching and, in particular, future-oriented cognition. Finally, learning-related functions suggested by AI (artificial intelligence)-based models are a fruitful avenue for future behavioural research.

Episodic Future Thinking Increases Quitting Intention and Reduces Cigarette Consumption: The Role of Anticipated Regret

Background: Episodic future thinking (EFT), which refers to people simulating possible future life events, has been suggested as a promising intervention for substance use disorders. Objectives: To examine the effect of gain-oriented and loss-oriented EFT on smoking cessation and its underlying mechanisms. Results: Two online experiments were conducted (Total N = 362). The results suggested that engaging in EFT led to increased short-term quitting behavior among smokers by bolstering their intentions to quit smoking (indirect effect = 0.10, bootstrap = 5000, bias-corrected 95% CI [0.0008, 0.2353]). Furthermore, the influence of EFT on quitting intention was mediated by anticipated regret (indirect effect = 0.37, bootstrap = 5000, bias-corrected 95% CI [0.2062, 0.5321]). There were no significant differences observed between the effects of gain-oriented and loss-oriented EFT on quitting intention (F = 0.28, p = .60). Importance: Our findings contribute to a growing body of literature on the adaptive functioning of EFT and lend support to the regret regulation theory. Health practitioners may consider integrating EFT into clinical interventions to help smokers quit smoking.

The sign effect in temporal discounting does not require the hippocampus

When considering future outcomes, humans tend to discount gains more than losses. This phenomenon, referred to as the temporal discounting sign effect, is thought to result from the greater anticipated emotional impact of waiting for a negative outcome (dread) compared to waiting for a positive outcome (mixture of savoring and impatience). The impact of such anticipatory emotions has been proposed to rely on episodic future thinking. We evaluated this proposal by examining the presence and magnitude of a sign effect in the intertemporal decisions of individuals with hippocampal amnesia, who are severely impaired in their ability to engage in episodic mental simulation, and by comparing their patterns of choices to those of healthy controls. We also measured loss aversion, the tendency to assign greater value to losses compared to equivalent gains, to verify that any reduction in the sign effect in the hippocampal lesion group could not be explained by a group difference in loss aversion. Results showed that participants with hippocampal amnesia exhibited a sign effect, with less discounting of monetary losses compared to gains, that was similar in magnitude to that of controls. Loss aversion, albeit greater in the hippocampal compared to the control group, did not account for the sign effect. These results indicate that the sign effect does not depend on the integrity of hippocampally mediated episodic processes. They suggest instead that the impact of anticipatory emotions can be factored into decisions via semantic future thinking, drawing on non-contextual knowledge about oneself.

The role of the human hippocampus in decision-making under uncertainty

The role of the hippocampus in decision-making is beginning to be more understood. Because of its prospective and inferential functions, we hypothesized that it might be required specifically when decisions involve the evaluation of uncertain values. A group of individuals with autoimmune limbic encephalitis-a condition known to focally affect the hippocampus-were tested on how they evaluate reward against uncertainty compared to reward against another key attribute: physical effort. Across four experiments requiring participants to make trade-offs between reward, uncertainty and effort, patients with acute limbic encephalitis demonstrated blunted sensitivity to reward and effort whenever uncertainty was considered, despite demonstrating intact uncertainty sensitivity. By contrast, the valuation of these two attributes (reward and effort) was intact on uncertainty-free tasks. Reduced sensitivity to changes in reward under uncertainty correlated with the severity of hippocampal damage. Together, these findings provide evidence for a context-sensitive role of the hippocampus in value-based decision-making, apparent specifically under conditions of uncertainty.

Effectiveness and feasibility of the self-administered and repeated episodic future thinking exercises in smoking cessation

Delay discounting (DD) is associated with smoking behavior and relapses. Episodic future thinking (EFT) is one of the leading interventions shown to reduce DD. The 1-month follow-up study with 60 participants that employed EFT as active intervention and episodic recent thinking (ERT) as control intervention was conducted in participants receiving smoking cessation treatment. In EFT group, there was significant decrease in DD rates from pre-intervention to post-intervention (p = 0.009), whereas no significant change was observed in ERT group (p = 0.497). DD rates in EFT group did not change significantly over 1 month (p = 0.059), while decrease was detected in ERT group (p = 0.011). Smoking cessation rates between groups were similar (p = 0.486). Adherence with completing follow-up evaluation forms and performing relevant exercises was higher in EFT group (p = 0.038, p = 0.006). Adding EFT to usual smoking cessation treatment did not increase smoking cessation rates, however feasibility of the self-administered exercises needs to be improved to clarify clinical effects.

Association of temporal discounting with transdiagnostic symptom dimensions

Temporal discounting (TD), the tendency to devalue future rewards as a function of delay until receipt, is aberrant in many mental disorders. Identifying symptom patterns and transdiagnostic dimensions associated with TD could elucidate mechanisms responsible for clinically impaired decision-making and facilitate identifying intervention targets. Here, we tested in a general population sample (N = 731) the extent to which TD was related to different symptom patterns and whether effects of time framing (dates/delay units) and monetary magnitude (large/small) had particularly strong effects in people scoring higher on specific symptom patterns. Analyses revealed that TD was related to symptom patterns loading on anxious-depression and inattention-impulsivity-overactivity dimensions. Moreover, TD was lower in the date than the delay version and with higher magnitudes, especially in people scoring higher on the inattention-impulsivity-overactivity dimension. Overall, this study provides evidence for TD as a transdiagnostic process across affective and impulsivity-related dimensions. Future studies should test framing interventions in clinical populations characterized by impulsivity.Preregistration: This research was preregistered at https://osf.io/fg9sc .

Examining the association between delay discounting, delay aversion and physical activity in Chinese adults with type-2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The role of physical activity in diabetes is critical, influencing this disease's development, man-agement, and overall outcomes. In China, 22.3% of adults do not meet the minimum level of physical activity recommended by the World Health Organization. Therefore, it is imperative to identify the factors that contributing to lack of physical activity must be identified.

AIM

To investigate the relationship among delay discounting, delay aversion, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and various levels of physical activity in Chinese adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

In 2023, 400 adults with T2DM were recruited from the People's Hospital of Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province. A face-to-face questionnaire was used to gather demographic data and details on physical activity, delay discounting, and delay aversion. In addition, HbA1c levels were measured in all 400 participants. The primary independent variables considered were delay discounting and delay aversion. The outcome variables included HbA1c levels and different intensity levels of physical activity, including walking, moderate physical activity, and vigorous physical activity. Multiple linear regression models were utilized to assess the relationship between delay discounting, delay aversion, and HbA1c levels, along with the intensity of different physical activity measured in met-hours per week.

RESULTS

After controlling for the sample characteristics, delay discounting was negatively associated with moderate physical activity (β = -2.386, 95%CI: -4.370 to -0.401). Meanwhile, delay aversion was negatively associated with the level of moderate physical activity (β = -3.527, 95% CI: -5.578 to -1.476) in the multiple linear regression model, with statistically significant differences.

CONCLUSION

Elevated delay discounting and increased delay aversion correlated with reduced levels of moderate physical activity. Result suggests that delay discounting and aversion may influence engagement in moderate physical activity. This study recommends that health administration and government consider delay discounting and delay aversion when formulating behavioral intervention strategies and treatment guidelines involving physical activity for patients with T2DM, which may increase participation in physical activity. This study contributes a novel perspective to the research on physical activity in adults with T2DM by examining the significance of future health considerations and the role of emotional responses to delays.

Effects of episodic future thinking in health behaviors for weight loss: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Obesity and related diseases have become one of the leading causes of death worldwide, which has been linked to biopsychosocial effects such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, various cancers, depression, and weight stigma. Episodic future thinking (EFT) has been found to support the development of changes in health behaviors. However, the effectiveness of EFT in enhancing weight loss behavior and health outcomes is not well supported.

OBJECTIVE

To establish implementation options for the EFT intervention, and critically synthesize the data that assesses the impact of EFT on weight loss behavior and health outcomes.

METHODS

Searches were performed across 5 Chinese and 9 English databases systematically from inception to March 2023. Randomized controlled trials, written in English or Chinese were included. Two independent reviewers evaluated all relevant studies, who also assessed the risk of bias, and extracted the data. Meta-analyses were conducted using Review Manager 5.4.1. The quantity of evidence's certainty was assessed using the Risk bias assessment tool RoB2 (revised version 2019). This study was registered in PROSPERO.

RESULTS

A total of 1740 participants were included, and 18 studies were eligible for inclusion. Meta-analysis reported a statistically significant effect size favoring EFT on delay discounting (AUC) (MD = 0.1, 95 % CI: [0.02, 0.17], P = 0.01; I2 = 73 %), delay discounting (K) (MD = -0.85, 95 % CI: [-1.44, -0.26], P = 0.005; I2 = 77 %), energy intake (MD = -107.59, 95 % CI: [-192.21, -22.97], P = 0.01; I2 = 57 %), grocery purchased (SMD: -0.91, 95 % CI:[-1.48, -0.34], P = 0.002; I2 = 63 %), and BMI (MD = -2.73, 95 % CI: [-5.13, -0.32], P = 0.03; I2 = 0 %, two studies).

CONCLUSIONS

EFT was found to have favorable effects on delay discounting, energy intake, grocery purchased, and BMI of individuals. The presence of high heterogeneity is evident in most of the outcomes. The modalities of EFT intervention are still in the exploratory phase, there is no consensus on the valence, context type, longest delay time, and practice strategy, and it needs to be further explored for different populations. It is anticipated that additional well-designed studies will continue developing high-quality evidence in this field.

A fragile effect: The influence of episodic memory on delay discounting

Delay discounting occurs when a reward loses value as a function of delay. Episodic future thinking (EFT) reliably decreases delay discounting. EFT may share cognitive features with recalling episodic memories such as constructive episodic simulation. We therefore explored whether recalling episodic memories also reduces delay discounting. In Experiment 1, participants wrote about episodic memories and recalled those memories before completing a delay discounting task. Episodic memories reduced delay discounting according to one commonly used delay discounting measure (area under the curve) but not another (using the hyperbolic model). Experiment 2 compared the effects of general and episodic memories. Neither general nor episodic memories significantly decreased delay discounting compared with a control "counting" condition, but episodic memories reduced delay discounting compared with general memories under some conditions. In Experiment 3, episodic memories did not decrease delay discounting compared with three other control conditions while EFT did. Experiment 3 therefore found that thinking must be both episodic and future orientated to reduce delay discounting. Together, these results suggest that episodic thinking is not sufficient to reliably decrease delay discounting, rather, features unique to episodic future thinking are required. Episodic memory might reduce delay discounting in some contexts, but this effect is small and fragile.

Art-delivered episodic future thinking reduces delay discounting: A phase IIa proof-of-concept trial

INTRODUCTION

High rates of delay discounting (DD), or the preference for immediate rewards over delayed rewards, is associated with substance use disorder (SUD). Lower rates of DD predict better treatment outcomes, and thus strategies that reduce DD may support SUD recovery. The process of vividly imagining a future event, known as episodic future thinking (EFT), may be a particularly viable approach to reduce DD. Some limited research has examined delivery of EFT in treatment settings, using verbal prompts that are typical of studies in non-treatment settings. We propose that the creation of visual art represents a unique alignment of the purpose of EFT with an innovative delivery modality in treatment settings.

METHODS

This single arm, proof-of-concept trial evaluated art-delivered EFT (ArtEFT) to reduce DD in a sample of women (N = 39) in a residential SUD treatment center. Participants engaged in a single, 1-h ArtEFT session during which they engaged in EFT and created a visual representation using art materials. The study collected DD measures for hypothetical money ($50 and $1000 magnitude conditions) before and after ArtEFT.

RESULTS

Using area-under-the-curve (AUCord) as the index of DD, the study observed predicted changes following the ArtEFT session. The ANOVA revealed statistically significant main effects of both magnitude [F(1,38) = 11.184, p = .002] and time [F(1. 38) = 4.731, p = .036], with a non-significant interaction [F(1,38) = 3.821, p = .058].

CONCLUSION

This study reveals promising preliminary indicators that art may be an effective modality to deliver EFT, with particular advantages for implementation given the popularity of art programming in SUD treatment programs.

Associations Between Reward and Future-Related Orientations and General and Specific Mental Health Issues in Adolescence

Adolescence is characterised by a peak in sensation seeking accompanied by gradually developing self-control skills. Adolescents typically show steeper delay discounting performance than other age groups; a feature that is transdiagnostically related to a variety of mental health disorders. However, delay discounting performance is not a singular mental process but involves both risk/reward and future orientation elements, usually operationalised as probability/risk and time discounting tasks, respectively. To clarify the specific relations between the risk/reward and future orientation elements of delay discounting and different types of mental health problems, two bi-factor models and a series of structural equation models (SEMs) were fitted to multi-informant (parent and adolescent self-reported) mental health data from a large UK study. A transdiagnostic promotive role of future orientation was found using bi-factor modelling to separate general and dimension-specific mental health variation; however, this was limited to parent reports. In addition, future orientation was negatively associated with conduct problems and ADHD symptoms, but positively associated with emotional problems. Risk aversion was negatively associated with conduct problems, but positively associated with emotional and peer problems. The findings highlight that risk/reward and future orientation elements of delay discounting play partly distinct roles in different mental health problems and can serve both promotive and risk roles during adolescence. Findings also illuminate which elements of delay discounting should be intervention targets for different mental health concerns.

Problematic mobile phone use as impulsive choice: Development and empirical verification of a reinforcer-pathology model

Problematic mobile phone use is characterized by its "impulsive" nature; users engage in it despite their negative attitude toward it. From a behavioral-economic perspective, this attitude-behavior discrepancy is generated by competing contingencies that involve smaller-sooner social reinforcers associated with mobile phone use and larger-later prosocial reinforcers potentially compromised by phone use. Based on this conceptualization, the reinforcer-pathology model of problematic mobile phone use is proposed, which posits that such phone use stems from excessive delay discounting of the social and prosocial reinforcers and/or excessive demand for the social reinforcers. A secondary data analysis of previously published studies was conducted, with the novel addition of principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of these data. The results generated evidence that supports the reinforcer-pathology model proposed in this article. Based on the theoretical analyses and accumulated empirical evidence, theory-driven prevention and intervention strategies for problematic mobile phone use are proposed. Overall, the reinforcer-pathology model of problematic mobile phone use provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and addressing this growing issue.

Posttraumatic stress and delay discounting: a meta-analytic review

Delay discounting-the extent to which individuals show a preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards-has been proposed as a transdiagnostic neurocognitive process across mental health conditions, but its examination in relation to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is comparatively recent. To assess the aggregated evidence for elevated delay discounting in relation to posttraumatic stress, we conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical literature. Bibliographic searches identified 209 candidate articles, of which 13 articles with 14 independent effect sizes were eligible for meta-analysis, reflecting a combined sample size of N = 6897. Individual study designs included case-control (e.g. examination of differences in delay discounting between individuals with and without PTSD) and continuous association studies (e.g. relationship between posttraumatic stress symptom severity and delay discounting). In a combined analysis of all studies, the overall relationship was a small but statistically significant positive association between posttraumatic stress and delay discounting (r = .135, p < .0001). The same relationship was statistically significant for continuous association studies (r = .092, p = .027) and case-control designs (r = .179, p < .001). Evidence of publication bias was minimal. The included studies were limited in that many did not concurrently incorporate other psychiatric conditions in the analyses, leaving the specificity of the relationship to posttraumatic stress less clear. Nonetheless, these findings are broadly consistent with previous meta-analyses of delayed reward discounting in relation to other mental health conditions and provide further evidence for the transdiagnostic utility of this construct.

Disrupting future discounting: a commentary on an underutilised psychological approach for improving adherence to diet and physical activity interventions

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) such as CVD and type 2 diabetes mellitus are major contributors to the burden of disease. NCD are largely driven by modifiable lifestyle factors including poor diet and insufficient physical activity, and consequently, prevention is a public health priority. Although diet and physical activity levels can be improved via lifestyle interventions, long-term adherence to such interventions remains low, which limits their effectiveness. Thus, it is critical to identify the underlying mechanisms that challenge uptake and adherence to such interventions. The current commentary discusses an important, but underexplored, psychological driver of poor adherence to lifestyle interventions, namely, future discounting, which describes the tendency to prefer smaller, short-term rewards over larger, long-term rewards. For example, in the nutrition domain, future discounting refers to valuing the immediate reward of excessive intake of energy-dense, nutrient-poor, discretionary foods high in salt, sugar, and saturated fat, and insufficient intake of low-energy, nutrient-dense, whole foods such as vegetables. Prominent theoretical models propose that excessive future discounting is a major contributor to the development of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours. Furthermore, a vast body of evidence suggests that future discounting plays a key role in risk of NCD. Thus, the evidence to date supports the idea that future discounting is an important multi-behaviour target for supporting lifestyle behaviour change; however, this approach has been largely neglected in preventive health efforts. Furthermore, this commentary discusses promising techniques (e.g. Episodic Future Thinking) for disrupting future discounting to promote improved adherence to lifestyle interventions aimed at reducing NCD risk.

Delay discounting of money and health outcomes, and adherence to policy guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic

Delay discounting refers to the observation that the subjective value of an outcome decreases as the delay to its receipt increases. It is well-established that steep delay discounting is related to various maladaptive behaviors, including poorer health-related choices. One of the current challenges of public health policies that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic is to encourage preventive behaviors against infectious diseases. In this study, we aimed to explore possible underpinnings of adherence to COVID-19 related public health policy guidelines such as disinfection, distancing, and masks (DDM). Participants completed monetary and health discounting tasks across two outcome amounts in gain and loss conditions, and they provided self-report measures of adherence to the DDM policy. Contrary to the theoretically plausible prediction that higher discounting rates would be negatively associated with adherence to health-related public policy guidelines, we found no compelling evidence to support such statement. We discuss the potential weaknesses of declarative measurements of attitudes toward COVID-19 and consider using behavioral interventions for influencing discounting rates for complementing and enhancing current policy guidelines.

Delay discounting, probability discounting, and interdental cleaning frequency

Background

Interdental cleaning is recommended by dentists but many people do not floss regularly. The health benefits of interdental cleaning are delayed, and sensitivity to delay is an important factor in many health behaviors. Thus, the present studies explore the relationship between frequency of flossing, and sensitivity to delayed and probabilistic outcomes.

Method

Crowd-sourced subjects were recruited in two studies (n = 584 and n = 321, respectively). In both studies, subjects reported their frequency of flossing and completed delay discounting and probability discounting tasks. Discounting was measured with area under the curve, and linear regression was used to analyze the results.

Results

Findings show that higher levels of delay discounting were associated with less frequent flossing (p < 0.001, both studies). In contrast, probability discounting was not significantly associated with flossing frequency (ns, both studies).

Conclusion

The findings are consistent with prior studies involving other health behaviors such as attendance at primary care and medication adherence. Results suggest that interventions that reduce delay discounting may help promote regular interdental cleaning, and that delay discounting is a more robust predictor of health behaviors than probability discounting. In addition, interdental cleaning appears to be a reasonable target behavior for evaluating potentially generalizable behavioral health interventions. Thus, interventions that are successful in promoting oral health behaviors should be considered as candidates for evaluation in other health behavior domains.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-022-02328-6.