Early predictors for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients

Use of inflammatory markers as predictor for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients with stages IIIb-V chronic kidney disease?

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) to predict mechanical ventilation (MV) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Its utility is unknown in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), who have elevated baseline CRP levels due to chronic inflammation and reduced renal clearance.

AIM

To assess whether an association exists between elevated inflammatory markers and MV rate in patients with stages IIIb-V CKD and COVID-19.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on patients with COVID-19 and stages IIIb-V CKD. The primary outcome was the rate of invasive MV, the rate of noninvasive MV, and the rate of no MV. Statistical analyses used unpaired t-test for continuous variables and chi-square analysis for categorical variables. Cutoffs for variables were CRP: 100 mg/L, ferritin: 530 ng/mL, D-dimer: 0.5 mg/L, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH): 590 U/L.

RESULTS

290 were screened, and 118 met the inclusion criteria. CRP, D-dimer, and ferritin were significantly different among the three groups. On univariate analysis for invasive MV (IMV), CRP had an odds ratio (OR)-5.44; ferritin, OR-2.8; LDH, OR-7.7; D-dimer, OR-3.9, (P < 0.05). The admission CRP level had an area under curve-receiver operator characteristic (AUROC): 0.747 for the IMV group (sensitivity-80.8%, specificity-50%) and 0.663 for the non-IMV (NIMV) group (area under the curve, sensitivity-69.2%, specificity-53%).

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between CRP, ferritin, and D-dimer levels and MV and NIMV rates in CKD patients. The AUROC demonstrates a good sensitivity for CRP levels in detecting the need for MV in patients with stages IIIb-V CKD. This may be because of the greater magnitude of increased inflammation due to COVID-19 itself compared with increased inflammation and reduced clearance due to CKD alone.

Combining blood glucose and SpO2/FiO2 ratio facilitates prediction of imminent ventilatory needs in emergency room COVID-19 patients

The increasing requirement of mechanical ventilation (MV) due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is still a global threat. The aim of this study is to identify markers that can easily stratify the impending use of MV in the emergency room (ER). A total of 106 patients with COVID-19 requiring oxygen support were enrolled. Fifty-nine patients were provided MV 0.5 h (interquartile range: 0.3 to 1.4) post-admission. Clinical and laboratory data before intubation were collected. Using a multivariate logistic regression model, we identified four markers associated with the impending use of MV, including the ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2 ratio), alanine aminotransferase, blood glucose (BG), and lymphocyte counts. Among these markers, SpO2/FiO2 ratio and BG, which can be measured easily and immediately, showed higher accuracy (AUC: 0.88) than SpO2/FiO2 ratio alone (AUC: 0.84), despite no significant difference (DeLong test: P = 0.591). Moreover, even in patients without severe respiratory failure (SpO2/FiO2 ratio > 300), BG (> 138 mg/dL) was predictive of MV use. Measuring BG and SpO2/FiO2 ratio may be a simple and versatile new strategy to accurately identify ER patients with COVID-19 at high risk for the imminent need of MV.

Study of Biochemical Parameters as Predictors for Need of Invasive Ventilation in Severely Ill COVID-19 Patients

Background

Though laboratory tests have been shown to predict mortality in COVID-19, there is still a dearth of information regarding the role of biochemical parameters in predicting the type of ventilatory support that these patients may require.

Methods

The purpose of our retrospective observational study was to investigate the relationship between biochemical parameters and the type of ventilatory support needed for the intensive care of severely ill COVID-19 patients. We comprehensively recorded history, physical examination, vital signs from point-of-care testing (POCT) devices, clinical diagnosis, details of the ventilatory support required in intensive care and the results of the biochemical analysis at the time of admission. Appropriate statistical methods were used and P-values < 0.05 were considered significant. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed and Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.6 to 0.7, 0.7 to 0.8, 0.8 to 0.9, and >0.9, respectively, were regarded as acceptable, fair, good, and exceptional for discrimination.

Results

Statistically significant differences (p<0.05) in Urea (p = 0.0351), Sodium (p = 0.0142), Indirect Bilirubin (p = 0.0251), Albumin (p = 0.0272), Aspartate Transaminase (AST) (p = 0.0060) and Procalcitonin (PCT) (p = 0.0420) were observed between the patients who were maintained on non-invasive ventilations as compared to those who required invasive ventilation. In patients who required invasive ventilation, the levels of Urea, Sodium, Indirect bilirubin, AST and PCT were higher while Albumin was lower. On ROC analysis, higher levels of Albumin was found to be acceptable indicator of maintenance on non-invasive ventilation while higher levels of Sodium and PCT were found to be fair predictor of requirement of invasive ventilation.

Conclusion

Our study emphasizes the role of biochemical parameters in predicting the type of ventilatory support that is needed in order to properly manage severely ill COVID-19 patients.

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Correlation of Patient Profiles and Biomarkers with Outcomes in Covid-19 Icu Patients: A Retrospective Analysis

Background

COVID-19 is a novel disease with a highly variable and unpredictable clinical course. Various clinicodemographic factors and numerous biomarkers have been identified in studies from the West and marked as possible predictors of severe illness and mortality which may be used to triage patients for early aggressive care. This triaging becomes even more significant in resource-limited critical care settings of the Indian subcontinent.

Methods

This retrospective observational study recruited 99 cases of COVID-19 admitted to intensive care from 1 May to 1 August 2020. Demographic, clinical and baseline laboratory data were collected and analysed for association with clinical outcomes, including survival and need for mechanical ventilatory support.

Results

Male gender (p=0.044) and diabetes mellitus (p=0.042) were associated with increased mortality. Binomial logistic regression analysis revealed Interleukin-6 (IL6) (p=0.024), D-dimer (p=0.025) and CRP (p<0.001) as significant predictors of need of ventilatory support and IL6 (p=0.036), CRP (p=0.041), D-dimer (p=0.006) and PaO2FiO2 ratio (p=0.019) as significant predictors of mortality. CRP >40 mg/L predicted mortality with sensitivity of 93.3% and specificity of 88.9% (AUC 0.933) and IL6> 32.5 pg/ml with a sensitivity of 82.2% and specificity of 70.4% (AUC 0.821).

Conclusion

Our results suggest that a baseline CRP >40 mg/L, IL6 >32.5 pg/ml or D-dimer >810 ng/ml are early accurate predictors of severe illness and adverse outcomes and may be used to triage patients for early intensive care.

Characteristics and outcomes of severe COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with cardiovascular diseases in the Amazonian region of Brazil: a retrospective cohort

The northern region of Brazil is already vulnerable to other infectious diseases and it was no different in COVID-19. However, cardiovascular diseases still lead the causes of death. Thus, the objective of this study is to identify the clinical predictors and outcome of severe COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with and without CVD in this region of the Amazon. A retrospective cohort, referring to the notifications from January 1 to December 31, 2020, including cases confirmed by molecular testing. The study consisted of 9223 confirmed cases for COVID-19. Of these, 6011 (65.17%) did not have cardiovascular disease and 3212 (34.83%) had some cardiovascular disease. The significance of deaths was in the age group of < 1 to 59 CVD carriers (< 0.001). Predictor of mortality were invasive ventilation for patients with CVD, (OR 23,688 CI 18,180-30,866), followed by chronic kidney disease (OR 2442 CI 1568-3740), dyspnea (OR 2312 CI 1817-3941), respiratory distress (OR 1523 CI 1210-2919), cough (OR 1268 CI 1005-1599), Lower oxygen saturation 95% (OR 1281 CI 1039-1579), diabetes mellitus (OR 1267 CI 1050-1528) and age (OR 1051 CI 1044-1058). Carriers of CVD had a lower survival rate (< 0.0001). The order of the predictors of death differed among the non-carriers, as well as the high odds ratio in the predictors of CVD, only cough was an independent predictor. The age group under 59 years was associated with deaths. We also show the shorter survival in CVD carriers, as well as the higher cardiovascular morbidity rate than other studies in the literature.

Management of Hematologic Malignancies in the Era of COVID-19 Pandemic: Pathogenetic Mechanisms, Impact of Obesity, Perspectives, and Challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about an unprecedented societal and healthcare system crisis, considerably affecting healthcare workers and patients, particularly those with chronic diseases. Patients with hematologic malignancies faced a variety of challenges, pertinent to the nature of an underlying hematologic disorder itself as well as its therapy as a risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, suboptimal vaccine efficacy and the need for uninterrupted medical observation and continued therapy. Obesity constitutes another factor which was acknowledged since the early days of the pandemic that predisposed people to severe COVID-19, and shares a likely causal link with the pathogenesis of a broad spectrum of hematologic cancers. We review here the epidemiologic and pathogenetic features that obesity and hematologic malignancies share, as well as potential mutual pathophysiological links predisposing people to a more severe SARS-CoV-2 course. Additionally, we attempt to present the existing evidence on the multi-faceted crucial challenges that had to be overcome in this diverse patient group and discuss further unresolved questions and future challenges for the management of hematologic malignancies in the era of COVID-19.

Comparison of clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients undergoing early versus late intubation from initial hospital admission: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The true impact of intubation and mechanical ventilation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients remains controversial.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to October 30th, 2021 for studies containing comparative data of COVID-19 patients undergoing early versus late intubation from initial hospital admission. Early intubation was defined as intubation within 48 h of hospital admission. The primary outcomes assessed were all-cause in-hospital mortality, renal replacement therapy (RRT), and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) duration.

RESULTS

Four cohort studies with 498 COVID-19 patients were included between February to August 2020, in which 28.6% had early intubation, and 36.0% underwent late intubation. Although the pooled hospital mortality rate was 32.1%, no significant difference in mortality rate was observed (odds ratio [OR] 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.32-2.00; P = 0.64) among those undergoing early and late intubation. IMV duration (mean 9.62 vs. 11.77 days; P = 0.25) and RRT requirement (18.3% vs. 14.6%; OR 1.19; P = 0.59) were similar regardless of intubation timing. While age, sex, diabetes, and body mass index were comparable, patients undergoing early intubation had higher sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores (mean 7.00 vs. 5.17; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of intubation from initial hospital admission did not significantly alter clinical outcomes during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher SOFA scores could explain early intubation. With the advancements in COVID-19 therapies, more research is required to determine optimal intubation time beyond the first wave of the pandemic.

Elevated inflammatory markers are associated with poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir

The antiviral remdesivir has been shown to decrease the length of hospital stay in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients requiring supplemental oxygen. However many patients decompensate despite being treated with remdesivir. To identify potential prognostic factors in remdesivir-treated patients, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center between March 23, 2020 and May 27, 2020. We identified 55 patients who were treated with remdesivir for COVID-19 and analyzed inflammatory markers and clinical outcomes. C-reactive protein (CRP), d-dimer, and lactate dehydrogenase levels were significantly higher in patients who progressed to intubation or death by 14 days compared to those who remained stable. CRP levels decreased significantly after remdesivir administration in patients who remained nonintubated over the study period. To our knowledge, this is the largest study to date examining inflammatory markers before and after remdesivir administration. Our findings support further investigation into COVID-19 treatment strategies that modify the inflammatory response.

Evaluation of the effect of clinical characteristics and intensive care treatment methods on the mortality of covid-19 patients aged 80 years and older

Background

Older adults have an increased risk of mortality from Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Despite the high number of publications on the topic of Covid-19 pandemic, few studies have focused on the intensive care treatments of Covid-19 patients aged 80 years and older.

The goal of our study is to investigate the effect of the intensive care treatments on the mortality of Covid-19 patients aged 80 years and older based on their clinical features, laboratory findings and the intensive care treatments methods.

Methods

The data of 174 patients aged 80 years and older treated from Covid-19 in intensive care unit were assessed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups as survivor and non-survivor. The effects of age, gender, length of stay, comorbid diseases, laboratory values, thoracic computed tomography findings, having invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and/or non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV), hemodiafiltration (HDF), anti-cytokines and plasma therapy on mortality have been investigated.

Results

The mean age and mean values of CRP, PCT, Ferritin, LDH were statistically significantly high in the non-survivor group. The mortality rate of the patients who had IMV was also statistically significantly higher compared to patients who had HFNC and/or NIMV. Albumin level and the rate of treatment with HFNC and/or NIMV were statistically significantly low in non-survivor group compared to the Survivor group.

Conclusion

ICU treatments may be beneficial for the Covid-19 patients aged 80 years and older. Increased age, high levels of CRP, PCT, ferritin, and having IMV are detected as poor outcome markers.

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Invasive mechanical ventilation and clinical parameters in COVID19 patient: Can age be a factor?

BACKGROUND

Severity of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID19) is presented with respiratory distress and requires mechanical ventilation. Advanced age is one of the significant risk factors of the worst prognosis and mortality in this disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical parameter among COVID19 patients under mechanical ventilation in regard to the age groups.

METHOD

In this retrospective study, COVID19 patients under invasive mechanical ventilation at Shahid Beheshti Hospital in Qom were included. The patients were divided in two age groups, those aged ≥50 years and <50 years. Clinical parameter of these patients like blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and body temperature were recorded at the time of mechanical ventilation and 24, 48 and 72 h under the mechanical ventilation.

RESULT

A total of 317 patients were included in the study where 214 patients were over the age of 50 years and 98 were under 50 years. The mean age of patients was 59.71 ± 16.46 year. At the start of mechanical ventilation and 24, 48 and 72 h during the ventilation, blood pressure, pulse rate, rate of respiration, oxygen saturation, Glasgow coma scale and temperature were not significantly different at among the two age groups, p > 0.05, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the study indicated that prognosis of COVID19 patients under invasive mechanical ventilation in terms of changes in clinical parameters might not be associated with the age.