Recent advances in the utility and use of the General Practice Research Database as an example of a UK Primary Care Data resource

A Scoping Review of Electronic Health Records-Based Screening Algorithms for Familial Hypercholesterolemia

Background

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a common genetic disorder that is strongly associated with premature cardiovascular disease. Effective diagnosis and appropriate treatment of FH can reduce cardiovascular disease risk; however, FH is underdiagnosed. Electronic health record (EHR)-based FH screening tools have been previously described to enhance the detection of FH.

Objectives

This scoping review explored the available literature on the performance and utility of existing EHR-based FH screening algorithms or tools.

Methods

We searched PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase from inception to October 2023 for relevant literature on the performance, utility, and/or implementation of EHR-based screening algorithms for FH.

Results

Of 14 screening algorithms and/or tools identified in the 27 studies included in this review, Familial Hypercholesterolemia Case Ascertainment Tool (1, 2, and ML), FIND FH algorithm, Mayo SEARCH, and TARB-Ex demonstrated the highest performance metrics for identifying patients with FH.

Conclusions

EHR-based screening tools hold great potential for improving population-level FH detection. Lack of established diagnostic criteria that can be applied across diverse populations and the lack of information about the performance, utility, and implementation of current EHR-based screening tools across diverse populations limit the current use of these tools.

Use of the French National Health Data System (SNDS) in pharmacoepidemiology: A systematic review in its maturation phase

AIM OF THE STUDY

The French National Health Data System (SNDS) comprises healthcare data that cover 99% of the population (over 67 million individuals) in France. The aim of this study was to present an overview of published pharmacoepidemiological studies using the SNDS in its maturation phase.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of original research articles in the Pubmed and EMBASE databases from January 2012 until August 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 316 full-text articles were included, with an annual increase over the study period. Only 16 records were excluded after screening because they did not involve the SNDS but other French healthcare databases. The study design was clearly reported in only 66% of studies of which 57% were retrospective cohorts and 22% cross-sectional studies. The reported study objectives were drug utilization (65%), safety (22%) and effectiveness (9%). Almost all ATC groups were studied but the most frequent ones concerned the nervous system in 149 studies (49%), cardiovascular system drugs in 104 studies (34%) and anti-infectives for systemic use in 50 studies (16%).

CONCLUSION

The SNDS is of growing interest for studies on drug use and safety, which could be conducted more in specific populations, including children, pregnant women and the elderly, as these populations are often not included in clinical trials.

What happens between first symptoms and first acute exacerbation of COPD - observational study of routine data and patient survey

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects nearly 400 million worldwide - over a million in the United Kingdom - and is the third leading cause of death. However, there is limited understanding of what prompts a diagnosis, how long this takes from symptom onset and the different approaches to clinical management by primary care professionals.

Objectives

Map out the clinical management and National Health Service contacts from symptom presentation to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis and first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in three time periods; construct risk prediction for first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Design

Retrospective cohort study and cross-sectional survey.

Setting

Primary care.

Participants

Patients with incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease aged > 35 years in England.

Interventions

None.

Main outcome measures

First acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Data sources

Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum; new online survey.

Results

Forty thousand five hundred and seventy-seven patients were diagnosed between April 2006 and March 2007 (cohort 1), 48,249 between April 2016 and March 2017 (cohort 2) and 4752 between March and August 2020 (cohort 3). The mean (standard deviation) age was 68.3 years (12.0); 47.3% were female. Around three-quarters were diagnosed in primary care, with a slight fall in cohort 3. Compliance with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence diagnostic guidelines was slightly higher in cohorts 2 and 3 for all patients; 35.8% (10.0% in the year before diagnosis) had all four elements met for all cohorts combined. Multilevel modelling showed considerable between-practice variation in spirometry. The survey on the charity website had 156 responses by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. Many respondents had not heard of the condition, hoped the symptoms would go away and identified various healthcare-related barriers to earlier diagnosis. Clinical Practice Research Datalink analysis showed notable changes in post-diagnosis prescribing from cohort 1 to 2, such as increases in long-acting muscarinic antagonist (21.7-46.3%). Triple therapy rose from 2.9% in cohort 2 to 11.1% in cohort 3. Documented pulmonary rehabilitation rose from just 0.8% in cohort 1 to 13.7% in cohort 2 and 20.9% in cohort 3. For all patients combined, the median time to first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients who had one was 1.4 years in cohorts 1 and 2. Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prediction models identified some consistent predictors, such as age, deprivation, severity, comorbidities, post-diagnosis spirometry and annual review. Models without post-diagnosis general practitioner actions had a c-statistic of around 0.70; the highest c-statistic was 0.81, for cohort 2 with post-diagnosis general practitioner actions and 6-month follow-up. All models had good calibration. The three most important predictors in terms of their population attributable risks were being a current smoker and offered smoking cessation advice (32.8%), disease severity (30.6%) and deprivation (15.4%). The highest population attributable risks for variables with adjusted hazard ratios < 1 were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease review (-27.3%) and flu vaccination (-26.6%).

Limitations

Symptom recording and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis vary between practice; predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second had many missing values.

Conclusions

There has been some improvement over time in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, with large changes in prescribing, though patient and system barriers to further improvement exist. Data available to general practitioners cannot generate risk prediction models with sufficient accuracy.

Future work

It will be important to expand the COVID-era cohort with longer follow-up and augment general practitioner data for better prediction.

Study registration

This study is registered as Researchregistry.com: researchregistry4762.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/99/72) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 43. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Fracture patterns and associated risk factors in pediatric and early adulthood type 1 diabetes: Findings from a nationwide retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

People with pediatric and early adulthood type 1 diabetes (T1D) might have a higher fracture risk at several sites compared to the general population. Therefore, we assessed the hazard ratios (HR) of various fracture sites and determined the risk factors associated with fractures among people with newly diagnosed childhood and adolescence T1D.

METHODS

All people from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (1987-2017), below 20 years of age with a T1D diagnosis code (n = 3100) and a new insulin prescription, were included and matched 1:1 by sex, age, and practice to a control without diabetes. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs of any, major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and peripheral fractures (lower-arm and lower-legs) for people with T1D compared to controls. The analyses were adjusted for sex, age, diabetic complications, medication (glucocorticoids, anti-depressants, anxiolytics, bone medication, anti-convulsive), Charlson-comorbidity-index (CCI), hypoglycemia, falls and alcohol. T1D was further stratified by diabetes duration, presence of diabetic microvascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, and neuropathy) and boys versus girls.

RESULTS

The crude HRs for any fracture (HR: 1.30, CI95%: 1.11-1.51), lower-arm (HR: 1.22, CI95%: 1.00-1.48), and lower-leg fractures (HR: 1.54, CI95%: 1.11-2.13) were statistically significant increase in T1D compared to controls, but the effect disappeared in the adjusted analyses. For MOFs, no significant differences were seen. Risk factors in the T1D cohort were few, but the most predominantly one was a previous fracture (any fracture: HR: 2.00, CI95%: 1.70-2.36; MOFs: HR: 1.89, CI95%: 1.44-2.48, lower- arm fractures: HR: 2.08, CI95%: 1.53-2.82 and lower-leg fractures: HR: 2.08, CI95%: 1.34-3.25). Others were a previous fall (any fracture: HR: 1.54, CI95%: 1.20-1.97), hypoglycemia (Any fracture: HR: 1.46, CI95%: 1.21-1.77 and lower-leg fractures: HR: 2.34, CI95%: 1.47-3.75), and anxiolytic medication (Any fracture: HR: 1.52, CI95%: 1.10-2.11). Whereas girls had a lower risk compared to boys (Any fracture: HR: 0.78, CI95%: 0.67-0.90 and lower-arm fractures; HR: 0.51, CI95%: 0.38-0.68). The risk of any fracture in T1D did not increase with longer diabetes duration compared to controls (0-4 years: HR: 1.20, CI95%: 1.00-1.44; 5-9 years: HR: 1.17, CI95%: 0.91-1.50; <10 years: HR: 0.83, CI95%: 0.54-1.27). Similar patterns were observed for other fracture sites. Furthermore, one complication compared to none in T1D correlated with a higher fracture risk (1 complication: HR: 1.42, CI95%: 1.04-1.95).

CONCLUSION

The overall fracture risk was not increased in pediatric and early adulthood T1D; instead, it was associated with familiar risk factors and specific diabetes-related ones.

Fracture patterns in adult onset type 1 diabetes and associated risk factors - A nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the hazard ratios (HR) for various fracture sites and identify associated risk factors in a cohort of relatively healthy adult people with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes (T1D).

METHODS

The study utilized data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (1987-2017). Participants included people aged 20 and above with a T1D diagnosis code (n = 3281) and a new prescription for insulin. Controls without diabetes were matched based on sex, year of birth, and practice. Cox regression analysis was conducted to estimate HRs for any fracture, major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), and peripheral fractures (lower-arm and lower-leg) in people with T1D compared to controls. Risk factors for T1D were examined and included sex, age, diabetic complications, medication usage, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), hypoglycemia, previous fractures, falls, and alcohol consumption. Furthermore, T1D was stratified by duration of disease and presence of microvascular complications.

RESULTS

The proportion of any fracture was higher in T1D (10.8 %) than controls (7.3). Fully adjusted HRs for any fracture (HR: 1.43, CI95%: 1.17-1.74), MOFs (HR: 1.46, CI95%: 1.04-2.05), and lower-leg fractures (HR: 1.37, CI95%: 1.01-1.85) were statistically significantly increased in people with T1D compared to controls. The primary risk factor across all fracture sites in T1D was a previous fracture. Additional risk factors at different sites included previous falls (HR: 1.64, CI95%: 1.17-2.31), antidepressant use (HR: 1.34, CI95%: 1.02-1.76), and anxiolytic use (HR: 1.54, CI95%: 1.08-2.29) for any fracture; being female (HR: 1.65, CI95%: 1.14-2.38) for MOFs; the presence of retinopathy (HR: 1.47, CI95%: 1.02-2.11) and previous falls (HR: 2.04, CI95%: 1.16-3.59) for lower-arm and lower-leg fractures, respectively. Lipid-lowering medication use decreased the risk of MOFs (HR: 0.66, CI95%: 0.44-0.99). Stratification of T1D by disease duration showed that the relative risk of any fracture in T1D did not increase with longer diabetes duration (0-4 years: HR: 1.52, CI95%: 1.23-1.87; 5-9 years: HR: 1.30, CI95%: 0.99-1.71; <10 years: HR: 1.07, CI95%: 0.74-1.55). Similar patterns were observed for other fracture sites. Moreover, the occurrence of microvascular complications in T1D was linked to a heightened risk of fractures in comparison to controls. However, when considering the T1D cohort independently, the association was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

In a cohort of relatively healthy and newly diagnosed people with T1D HRs for any fracture, MOFs, and lower-leg fractures compared to controls were increased. A previous fracture was the most consistent risk factor for a subsequent fracture, whereas retinopathy was the only diabetes related one. We postulate a potential initial fracture risk, succeeded by a subsequent risk reduction, which might potentially increase in later years due to the accumulation of complications and other factors.

Presence of Breast Cancer Information Recorded in United Kingdom Primary Care Databases: Comparison of CPRD Aurum and CPRD GOLD (Companion Paper 1)

Purpose

To evaluate the presence of data elements related to diagnosis and treatment of malignant breast cancer in CPRD Aurum compared to those in the previously validated CPRD GOLD.

Methods

Females in CPRD Aurum or GOLD with a first-time code for malignant breast cancer, mastectomy, or ≥1 prescription for tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors (2004-2019) were selected. We compared the presence of the codes for breast cancer diagnosis, surgeries (mastectomy, lumpectomy), tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitor prescriptions, radiation, chemotherapy, and supporting clinical codes (suspected breast cancer, lump symptoms, biopsy, lumpectomy, cancer care, referral/visit to specialist, palliative care). Age standardized incidence rates of breast cancer diagnosis in CPRD Aurum and GOLD were calculated.

Results

There were 131,936 eligible patients in CPRD Aurum and 69,102 patients in GOLD. A similar proportion of patients in CPRD Aurum and GOLD had codes for breast cancer diagnosis, mastectomy, drug prescriptions, lump, biopsy, lumpectomy, chemotherapy, and cancer and palliative care coded in their electronic record during follow-up. However, suspected breast cancer, radiation, and referral/visits to specialists were coded more frequently in patients in CPRD Aurum compared to GOLD. Age-standardized incidence rates were similar for CPRD Aurum and GOLD.

Conclusion

Overall, there was consistency between data elements related to malignant breast cancer recorded in CPRD Aurum and GOLD, particularly for the most informative clinical details. These findings provide reassurance that breast cancer information recorded in CPRD Aurum is generally comparable to that recorded in the previously validated CPRD GOLD and support the use of CPRD Aurum for breast cancer research.

Pre-diagnostic prescribing patterns in dyspnoea patients with as-yet-undiagnosed lung cancer: A longitudinal study of linked primary care and cancer registry data

INTRODUCTION

Patients with as-yet undiagnosed lung cancer (LC) can present to primary care with non-specific symptoms such as dyspnoea, often in the context of pre-existing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Related medication prescriptions pre-diagnosis might represent opportunities for earlier diagnosis, but UK evidence is limited. Consequently, we explored prescribing patterns of relevant medications in patients who presented with dyspnoea in primary care and were subsequently diagnosed with LC.

METHOD

Linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and National Cancer Registry data were used to identify 5434 patients with incident LC within a year of a dyspnoea presentation in primary care between 2006 and 2016. Primary care prescriptions relevant to dyspnoea management were examined: antibiotics, inhaled medications, oral steroids, and opioid analgesics. Poisson regression models estimated monthly prescribing rates during the year pre-diagnosis. Variation by COPD status (52 % pre-existing, 36 % COPD-free, 12 % new-onset) was examined. Inflection points were identified indicating when prescribing rates changed from the background rate.

RESULTS

63 % of patients received 1 or more relevant prescriptions 1-12 months pre-diagnosis. Pre-existing COPD patients were most prescribed inhaled medications. COPD-free and new-onset COPD patients were most prescribed antibiotics. Most patients received 2 or more relevant prescriptions. Monthly prescribing rates of all medications increased towards time of diagnosis in all patient groups and were highest in pre-existing COPD patients. Increases in prescribing activity were observed earliest in pre-existing COPD patients 5 months pre-diagnosis for inhaled medications, antibiotics, and steroids, CONCLUSION: Results indicate that a diagnostic window of appreciable length exists for potential earlier LC diagnosis in some patients. Lung cancer diagnosis may be delayed if early symptoms are misattributed to COPD or other benign conditions.

The Impact of Oral Antibiotics Prior to Cancer Diagnosis on Overall Patient Survival: Findings from an English Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence in humans as to whether antibiotics impact the effectiveness of cancer treatments. Rodent studies have shown that disruption in gut microbiota due to antibiotics decreases cancer therapy effectiveness. We evaluated the associations between the antibiotic treatment of different time periods before cancer diagnoses and long-term mortality.

METHODS

Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, linked to the Cancer Registry's and the Office for National Statistics' mortality records, we delineated a study cohort that involved cancer patients who were prescribed antibiotics 0-3 months; 3-24 months; or more than 24 months before cancer diagnosis. Patients' exposure to antibiotics was compared according to the recency of prescriptions and time-to-event (all-cause mortality) by applying Cox models.

RESULTS

111,260 cancer patients from England were included in the analysis. Compared with antibiotic prescriptions that were issued in the past, patients who had been prescribed antibiotics shortly before cancer diagnosis presented an increased hazard ratio (HR) for mortality. For leukaemia, the HR in the Cancer Registry was 1.32 (95% CI 1.16-1.51), for lymphoma it was 1.22 (1.08-1.36), for melanoma it was 1.28 (1.10-1.49), and for myeloma it was 1.19 (1.04-1.36). Increased HRs were observed for cancer of the uterus, bladder, and breast and ovarian and colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotics that had been issued within the three months prior to cancer diagnosis may reduce the effectiveness of chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Judicious antibiotic prescribing is needed among cancer patients.

Evaluation of common prescription analgesics and adjuvant analgesics as markers of suicide risk: a longitudinal population-based study in England

Background

Analgesics prescriptions may provide a marker for identifying individuals at higher risk of suicide. In particular, awareness of which analgesics are implicated may help clinicians assess and modify risk.

Method

A case-control study in England using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (for primary care records) linked with hospital and national mortality electronic registries. We included patients aged ≥15 who died by suicide between 2001 and 2019 (N = 14,515), to whom we individually matched 580,159 controls by suicide date and general practice (N = 594,674). Odds ratios (ORs) for suicide, controlled for age and sex, were assessed using conditional logistic regression.

Findings

Suicide risks were highest in those prescribed adjuvant analgesics (pregabalin, gabapentin and carbamazepine) (adjusted OR 4.07; 95% confidence intervals CI: 3.62-4.57), followed by those prescribed opioids (adjusted OR 2.01; 95% CI: 1.88-2.15) and those prescribed non-opioid analgesics (adjusted OR 1.48; 95% CI: 1.39-1.58) compared to those not prescribed these medications. By individual analgesic, the highest suicide risks were seen in patients prescribed oxycodone (adjusted OR 6.70; 95% CI: 4.49-9.37); pregabalin (adjusted OR 6.50; 95% CI: 5.41-7.81); morphine (adjusted OR 4.54; 95% CI: 3.73-5.52); and gabapentin (adjusted OR 3.12; 95% CI: 2.59-3.75). Suicide risk increased linearly with the number of analgesic prescriptions in the final year (p < 0.01 based on the likelihood ratio test), and the more different analgesics categories were prescribed in the final year (p < 0.01 based on the likelihood ratio test).

Interpretation

Analgesic prescribing was associated with higher suicide risk. This is a particular issue with regard to adjuvant non-opiate analgesics.

Funding

There was no funding for this study.

Mortality in children with epilepsy: Cohort study using the clinical practice research datalink

OBJECTIVE

To estimate Mortality Rate (MR) in UK children with epilepsy (CWE) compared to children without epilepsy (CWOE), describe causes of death, determine Mortality Rate Ratios (MRRs) for cause-specific mortality, and to analyse the contribution of co-morbidities (respiratory disease, neoplasm, and congenital disorders) to mortality rate.

METHOD

Retrospective cohort study of children born between 1998 and 2017, using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold (Set 18). Epilepsy diagnoses were identified using previously validated codes. Causes of death were defined as natural or non-natural. Epilepsy-related deaths in CWE were those where underlying or contributing cause of death was epilepsy, status epilepticus, seizures, ill-defined/unknown cause or sudden death. We used Cox proportional hazard analysis to investigate associations of epilepsy and mortality.

RESULTS

There were 1,191,304 children followed for 13,994,916 person-years (median: 12) if which 9665 (0.8%) had epilepsy. Amongst CWE, 3.4% died. MR of CWE was 4.1 (95%CI 3.7-4.6)/1,000 person-years. CWE had an increased adjusted all-cause mortality (MRR 50.9,95%CI 44.8-57.7) compared to CWOE. Amongst the 330 deaths in CWE, 323 (98%) were natural, 7 (2%) non-natural, 80 (24%) epilepsy-related. MRR of non-natural deaths was 2.09 (95%CI 0.92,4.74, p = 0.08).

SIGNIFICANCE

Amongst CWE, 3.4% died during the study period. All-cause mortality rate in CWE was 4/1,000 person-years representing a fifty-fold increased mortality risk, after taking into account sex and socioeconomic status, compared to similarly aged children who did not have epilepsy. Causes of death mostly were not seizure-related. Non-natural death in CWE was uncommon.

Using primary care databases for addiction research: An introduction and overview of strengths and weaknesses

Primary care databases extract and combine routine data from the electronic patient records of various participating practices on a regular basis. These databases can be used for innovative and relevant addiction research, but such use requires a thorough understanding of how data were originally collected and how they need to be processed and statistically analysed to produce sound scientific evidence. The aims of this paper are therefore to (1) make a case for why primary care databases should be considered more frequently for addiction research; (2) provide an overview of how primary care databases are constructed; (3) highlight important methodological and statistical strengths and weaknesses of using primary care databases for research; and (4) give practical advice about how a researcher can get access to databases. Three major primary care databases from the UK serve as examples: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), The Health Improvement Network (THIN), and QResearch.

Long-term impact of pre-incision antibiotics on children born by caesarean section: a longitudinal study based on UK electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby's umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section.

DESIGN

This was a controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

The study took place in primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Children born in the UK during 2006-18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally.

INTERVENTIONS

In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed.

DATA SOURCES

The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN-CPRD data set.

RESULTS

In the THIN-CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother-baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006-18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as researchregistry3736.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Long term impact of prophylactic antibiotic use before incision versus after cord clamping on children born by caesarean section: longitudinal study of UK electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact on child health up to age 5 years of a policy to use antibiotic prophylaxis for caesarean section before incision compared with after cord clamping.

DESIGN

Observational controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

UK primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

515 945 children born in 2006-18 with linked maternal records and registered with general practices contributing to two UK primary care databases (The Health Improvement Network and Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and 7 147 884 children with linked maternal records in the Hospital Episode Statistics database covering England, of which 3 945 351 were linked to hospitals that reported the year of policy change to administer prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean section before incision rather than after cord clamping.

INTERVENTION

Fetal exposure to antibiotics shortly before birth (using pre-incision antibiotic policy as proxy) compared with no exposure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incidence rate ratios of asthma and eczema in children born by caesarean section when pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics were recommended compared with those born when antibiotics were administered post-cord clamping, adjusted for temporal changes in the incidence rates in children born vaginally.

RESULTS

Prophylactic antibiotics administered before incision for caesarean section compared with after cord clamping were not associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) or eczema (0.98, 0.94 to 1.03), including asthma and eczema resulting in hospital admission (1.05, 0.99 to 1.11 and 0.96, 0.71 to 1.29, respectively), up to age 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found no evidence of an association between pre-incision prophylactic antibiotic use and risk of asthma and eczema in early childhood in children born by caesarean section.

5-Alpha Reductase Inhibitors and the Risk of Anemia among Men with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

5-alpha reductase inhibitors (5αRIs) are effective for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). However, 5αRIs could lower levels of hemoglobin, increasing the risk of anemia.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the rate of anemia between new users of 5αRIs and α-blockers in the United Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

We conducted a matched, active comparator, new-user cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The study population consisted of men aged 40+ years with incident BPH who initiated 5αRIs between 1998 and 2019 and were matched 1:1 on propensity score to new users of α-blockers. Anemia was defined by a measured hemoglobin < 130 g/l. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for anemia.

RESULTS

Our study cohort included 9,429 new users of 5αRIs and 9,429 matched new users of α-blockers. Their median durations of follow-up were 136 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 54-336 days) and 77 days (IQR: 58-236), respectively. A total of 2,865 5αRIs users and 2,407 α-blocker users developed incident anemia, representing rates of 37.3 (95% CI: 33.6-41.3) and 42.0 (95% CI: 38.1-46.2) per 100 person-years, respectively. The use of 5αRIs was not associated with an increased risk of anemia compared to the use of α-blockers (HR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.90-1.00). Similarly, we did not observe an increased risk of mild, moderate, or severe anemia.

CONCLUSION

The use of 5αRIs was not associated with an increased risk of anemia compared to the use of α-blockers among men with BPH.

Interactive Visualization Applications in Population Health and Health Services Research: Systematic Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Simple visualizations in health research data, such as scatter plots, heat maps, and bar charts, typically present relationships between 2 variables. Interactive visualization methods allow for multiple related facets such as numerous risk factors to be studied simultaneously, leading to data insights through exploring trends and patterns from complex big health care data. The technique presents a powerful tool that can be used in combination with statistical analysis for knowledge discovery, hypothesis generation and testing, and decision support.

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective of this scoping review is to describe and summarize the evidence of interactive visualization applications, methods, and tools being used in population health and health services research (HSR) and their subdomains in the last 15 years, from January 1, 2005, to March 30, 2019. Our secondary objective is to describe the use cases, metrics, frameworks used, settings, target audience, goals, and co-design of applications.

METHODS

We adapted standard scoping review guidelines with a peer-reviewed search strategy: 2 independent researchers at each stage of screening and abstraction, with a third independent researcher to arbitrate conflicts and validate findings. A comprehensive abstraction platform was built to capture the data from diverse bodies of literature, primarily from the computer science and health care sectors. After screening 11,310 articles, we present findings from 56 applications from interrelated areas of population health and HSR, as well as their subdomains such as epidemiologic surveillance, health resource planning, access, and use and costs among diverse clinical and demographic populations.

RESULTS

In this companion review to our earlier systematic synthesis of the literature on visual analytics applications, we present findings in 6 major themes of interactive visualization applications developed for 8 major problem categories. We found a wide application of interactive visualization methods, the major ones being epidemiologic surveillance for infectious disease, resource planning, health service monitoring and quality, and studying medication use patterns. The data sources included mostly secondary administrative and electronic medical record data. In addition, at least two-thirds of the applications involved participatory co-design approaches while introducing a distinct category, embedded research, within co-design initiatives. These applications were in response to an identified need for data-driven insights into knowledge generation and decision support. We further discuss the opportunities stemming from the use of interactive visualization methods in studying global health; inequities, including social determinants of health; and other related areas. We also allude to the challenges in the uptake of these methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Visualization in health has strong historical roots, with an upward trend in the use of these methods in population health and HSR. Such applications are being fast used by academic and health care agencies for knowledge discovery, hypotheses generation, and decision support.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/14019.

Statin prescription in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and risk of exacerbations: a retrospective cohort study in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies have suggested a beneficial effect of taking statins on frequency of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. However, clinical trials of statins in people with COPD did not confirm those results. This study aimed to investigate this association using a methodological approach, which reduces the biases associated with some previous observational study designs.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study comparing new-users of statins with non-users.

SETTING

General practices in England contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in 2007-2017, with linkage to data on Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient episodes.

PARTICIPANTS

48 124 people with COPD, aged over 40 years, who had not been prescribed statin in the previous year.

EXPOSURE

Participants became new-users of statins at their first prescription for a statin during follow-up. They were then assumed to remain statin users. Statin users were compared with non-users.

OUTCOMES

Primary outcomes were COPD exacerbation, or severe exacerbation requiring hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes were death from any cause (for comparison with other studies) and urinary tract infection (negative-control). Maximum follow-up was 3 years. Adjusted HR were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression. The Andersen-Gill model was used for recurrent exacerbations. Covariates included demographic variables, variables related to COPD severity, cardiovascular comorbidities as time-dependent variables, and other comorbidities at baseline.

RESULTS

7266 participants became new-users of statins over an average 2.5 years of follow-up. In total, 30 961 people developed an exacerbation, 8110 severe exacerbation, 3650 urinary tract infection and 5355 died. Adjusted HR (95% CI) in statin users compared with non-users were first exacerbation 1.01 (0.96-1.06), severe exacerbation 0.92 (0.84-0.99), number of exacerbations 1.00 (0.97-1.04), urinary tract infection 1.10 (0.98-1.23) and death 0.63 (0.57-0.70).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study of health records from a Primary Care database, statin use in people with COPD was not associated with a lower risk of COPD exacerbation.

Adherence to Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Cross-National Comparison in Six European Countries (2008-2015)

Aims: To describe and compare the adherence to different direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in eight European databases representing six countries. Methods: Longitudinal drug utilization study of new users (≥18 years) of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban) with a diagnosis of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (2008-2015). Adherence was examined by estimating persistence, switching, and discontinuation rates at 12 months. Primary non-adherence was estimated in BIFAP and SIDIAP databases. Results: The highest persistence rate was seen for apixaban in the CPRD database (81%) and the lowest for dabigatran in the Mondriaan database (22%). The switching rate for all DOACs ranged from 2.4 to 13.1% (Mondriaan and EGB databases, respectively). Dabigatran had the highest switching rate from 5.0 to 20.0% (Mondriaan and EGB databases, respectively). The discontinuation rate for all DOACs ranged from 16.0 to 63.9% (CPRD and Bavarian CD databases, respectively). Dabigatran had the highest rate of discontinuers, except in the Bavarian CD and AOK NORDWEST databases, ranging from 23.2 to 64.6% (CPRD and Mondriaan databases, respectively). Combined primary non-adherence for examined DOACs was 11.1% in BIFAP and 14.0% in SIDIAP. There were differences in population coverage and in the type of drug data source among the databases. Conclusion: Despite the differences in the characteristics of the databases and in demographic and baseline characteristics of the included population that could explain some of the observed discrepancies, we can observe a similar pattern throughout the databases. Apixaban was the DOAC with the highest persistence. Dabigatran had the highest proportion of discontinuers and switchers at 12 months in most databases (EMA/2015/27/PH).

The prevalence of Myocardial Infarction among Multiple Sclerosis Patients: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

People with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) are suggested to have a higher death rate compared to the overall population. Increased risk and incidence of cardiovascular diseases is a possible contributing factor here, as these patients are suggested to be more prone to early death due to myocardial infarction (MI).

AIM

This systematic review aims to describe the prevalence of MI among PwMS in comparison to the non-MS population.

METHOD

We thoroughly searched for publications reporting the prevalence of MI among PwMS in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science. We excluded studies focusing on the following conditions: ischemic heart disease only, autopsy of PwMS, MS patients with a previous history of cardiovascular diseases, and MS diagnosed after MI. Moreover, we excluded reviews, editorials, and commentaries. We used the random effect model to calculate the pooled prevalence.

RESULTS

We included nineteen studies, comprising 44 to 66616 participants. The overall prevalence of MI was 1.7% among PwMS. The pooled odds ratio estimate for MI was 1.41 in PwMS compared to the MS-free population.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this systematic review confirms the increased risk of MI among PwMS. Consequently, cardiovascular diseases should be considered in the management of these patients.

Disease severity, flares and treatment patterns in adults with systemic lupus erythematosus in the UK: a real-world observational retrospective cohort analysis

Objectives

The aim was to characterize disease severity, clinical manifestations, treatment patterns and flares in a longitudinal cohort of adults with SLE in the UK.

Methods

Adults with SLE were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink–Hospital Episode Statistics database (1 January 2005–31 December 2017). Patients were required to have ≥12 months of data before and after the index date (earliest SLE diagnosis date available). SLE disease severity and flares were classified using adapted claims-based algorithms, which are based on SLE-related conditions, medications and health-service use.

Results

Of 802 patients, 369 had mild, 345 moderate and 88 severe SLE at baseline. A total of 692 initiated treatment in the first year after diagnosis. Five hundred and fifty-seven received antimalarials, 203 immunosuppressants and 416 oral CSs. Information on biologic use in hospitals was unavailable. The mean (S.d.) time to initiating any medication was 177 (385.3) days. The median time to first flare was 63 days (95% CI: 57, 71). At least one flare was experienced by 750 of 802 patients during follow-up; the first flare was mild for 549 of 750, moderate for 116 of 750 and severe for 85 of 750. The mean (S.d.) annual overall flare rate (year 1) was 3.5 (2.5). A shorter median time to first flare was significantly associated with moderate/severe disease (P < 0.001) and clinical manifestations (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest some delay in the initiation of SLE treatment. Most patients experience a flare within 2 months of diagnosis. Early treatment might delay or reduce the severity of the first SLE flare and might translate to slower disease progression, lower accrual of organ damage and better outcomes.

Association between opioid-related deaths and prescribed opioid dose and psychotropic medicines in England: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Opioid-overdose deaths are associated with poisoning with prescription and illicit opioids in the USA. In contrast, opioid-related deaths (ORDs) in the UK often involve drugs and substances of misuse, and may not be associated with a high dose of prescribed opioids. This study aimed to investigate the association between prescribed opioid dose and ORDs in UK primary care.

METHODS

This case-crossover study used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and death registration between 2000 and 2015 to identify ORDs. Daily oral morphine equivalent (OMEQ) dose was measured within a 90 day focal window before ORD and three earlier reference windows. Conditional logistic regression models assessed the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) comparing daily OMEQ dose greater than 120 mg in the focal window against the reference windows.

RESULTS

Of the 232 ORDs, 62 (26.7%) were not prescribed opioids in the year before death. Of the remaining 170 cases, 50 (29.4%) were never prescribed a daily OMEQ dose greater than 50 mg. Daily OMEQ doses over 120 mg (aOR 2.20; 95% CI: 1.06-4.56), co-prescribing gabapentinoids (aOR 2.32; 95% CI: 1.01-5.33), or some antidepressants (aOR 3.03; 95% CI: 1.02-9.04) significantly increased the risk of ORD.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily OMEQ dose greater than 120 mg and the concomitant use of psychotropic medicines were related to ORDs in the UK. Prescribers should cautiously avoid prescribing opioids with a daily OMEQ dose greater than 120 mg day^-1 and the combination of opioids and gabapentinoids, even with low opioid doses.

Association between opioid-related deaths and persistent opioid prescribing in primary care in England: a nested case-control study

AIM

This study aimed to evaluate the association between opioid-related deaths and persistent opioid utilisation in the United Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

This nested case-control study used the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linking the Office for National Statistics death registration. Adult opioid users with recorded opioid-related death between 2000 and 2015 were included and matched to four opioid users (controls) based on a disease risk score. Persistent opioid utilisation (opioid prescriptions ≥3 quarters/year and oral morphine equivalent dose ≥4500 mg/year) and psychotropic prescriptions were identified annually during the three patient-years before the date of opioid-related death. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the association between persistent opioid utilisation and opioid-related death, and the results were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

RESULTS

Of the 902,149 opioid users, 230 opioid-related deaths (cases) and 920 controls were identified. Persistent opioid utilisation was significantly associated with an increased risk of opioid-related deaths (aOR: 1.9; 95%CI: 1.2, 2.9) when persistent opioid utilisation was defined by both annual dose and number of quarters. Concurrent prescription of opioids and tricyclic antidepressants (aOR: 2.0; 95%CI: 1.2, 3.5) or higher dose of benzodiazepine (aOR: 6.5; 95%CI: 4.0, 10.4) or gabapentinoids (aOR: 6.2; 95%CI: 2.9, 13.5) were associated with opioid-related death.

CONCLUSION

Persistent opioid prescribing and concurrent prescribing of psychotropics were associated with a higher risk of opioid-related death and should be avoided in clinical practice. An evidence-based indicator to monitor the safety of prescribed opioids during opioid de-prescribing is needed.

Social determinants of pertussis and influenza vaccine uptake in pregnancy: a national cohort study in England using electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To examine the social determinants of influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake among pregnant women in England.

DESIGN

Nationwide population-based cohort study.

SETTING

The study used anonymised primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care data.

PARTICIPANTS

Pregnant women eligible for pertussis (2012-2015, n=68 090) or influenza (2010/2011-2015/2016, n=152 132) vaccination in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake.

RESULTS

Vaccine uptake was 67.3% for pertussis and 39.1% for influenza. Uptake of both vaccines varied by region, with the lowest uptakes in London and the North East. Lower vaccine uptake was associated with greater deprivation: almost 10% lower in the most deprived quintiles compared with the least deprived for influenza (34.5% vs 44.0%), and almost 20% lower for pertussis (57.7% vs 76.0%). Lower uptake for both vaccines was also associated with non-white ethnicity (lowest among women of black ethnicity), maternal age under 20 years and a greater number of children in the household. The associations between all social factors and vaccine uptake were broadly unchanged in fully adjusted models, suggesting the social determinants of uptake were largely independent of one another. Among 3111 women vaccinated against pertussis in their first eligible pregnancy and pregnant again, 1234 (40%) were not vaccinated in their second eligible pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting promotional campaigns to pregnant women who are younger, of non-white ethnicity, with more children, living in areas of greater deprivation or the London or North East regions, has potential to reduce vaccine-preventable disease among infants and pregnant women, and to reduce health inequalities. Vaccination promotion needs to be sustained across successive pregnancies. Further research is needed into whether the effectiveness of vaccine promotion strategies may vary according to social factors.

All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality Among Insulin-Naïve People With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Insulin Detemir or Glargine: A Cohort Study in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Uncontrolled type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality. The impact of basal insulins on the risks of mortality and cardiovascular mortality in people with T2D has not been thoroughly investigated in real-world settings. The aim of the present real-word study was to investigate differences in mortality among insulin-naïve people with T2D who initiated insulin detemir (detemir) and insulin glargine (glargine).

METHODS

We assessed all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with T2D, aged ≥ 40 years and insulin-naïve at treatment initiation. People were identified from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD national database (2004-2019). Database information included prescribed medications, demographic and clinical variables and mortality. Cause of death was obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). For mortality, 24 clinically relevant confounders were considered and adjusted for using Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

The total cohort included 12,847 people with T2D, including 3031 who commenced detemir and 9816 who commenced glargine. Median age was 66.8 years and median diabetes duration was 7.6 years. From the total cohort, 3231 deaths occurred during follow-up and 6897 people were eligible for linkage to the ONS for cardiovascular mortality data (528 cardiovascular deaths). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 0.86 (0.79; 0.95) for all-cause mortality and 0.83 (0.67; 1.03) for cardiovascular mortality, in favour of detemir versus glargine. These associations were more pronounced among people with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m²), with HRs (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.69; 0.91) and 0.69 (0.50; 0.96) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this real-world observational study, there was an association between all-cause mortality and basal insulin choice in insulin-naïve people with T2D; the mortality risk was lower with detemir versus glargine after adjustment for potential confounders.

Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Severe Asthma Exacerbation in Perimenopausal and Postmenopausal Women: 17-Year National Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on clinical outcomes in menopausal women is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between use of HRT and severe asthma exacerbation in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women with asthma.

METHODS

We used the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a population-based longitudinal primary care database in the United Kingdom, to construct a 17-year (January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016) cohort of perimenopausal and postmenopausal (46-70 years, N = 31,656) women. We defined use of HRT, its subtypes, and duration of HRT use. Severe asthma exacerbation was defined as an asthma-related hospitalization, emergency department visits due to asthma, and/or prescription of oral corticosteroids. Analyses were undertaken using multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression.

RESULTS

At baseline, 22% of women were using any HRT, 11% combined HRT, and 11% estrogen-only HRT. Previous, but not current, use of any (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-1.26), combined (IRR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.25-1.31), and estrogen-only HRT (IRR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.14-1.21), and longer duration (1-2 years: IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.13-1.19; 3-4 years: IRR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.38-1.48; 5+ years: IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.28-1.36) of HRT use were associated with increased risk of severe asthma exacerbation compared with nonuse. The risk estimates were greater among lean women (body mass index [BMI] <25 kg/m²) than among heavier women (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m² and ≥30 kg/m²) and higher among smokers than nonsmokers.

CONCLUSION

Use of HRT and subtypes, particularly previous, but not current, use and use for more than 2 years, is associated with an increased risk of severe asthma exacerbation in perimenopausal/postmenopausal women with established asthma. Lean women and smokers are at greater risk than heavier women and nonsmokers, respectively.

Cost-effectiveness of superabsorbent wound dressing versus standard of care in patients with moderate-to-highly exuding leg ulcers

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness/utility of a superabsorbent wound dressing (Zetuvit Plus Silicone) versus the current standard of care (SoC) dressings, from the NHS perspective in England, in patients with moderate-to-high exudating leg ulcers.

METHOD

A model-based economic evaluation was conducted to analyse the cost-effectiveness/utility of a new intervention. We used a microsimulation state-transition model with a time horizon of six months and a cycle length of one week. The model uses a combination of incidence base and risk prediction approach to inform transition probabilities. All clinical efficiency, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), cost and resource use inputs were informed by conducting a systematic review of UK specific literature.

RESULTS

Treatment with the superabsorbent dressing leads to a total expected cost per patient for a six month period of £2887, associated with 15.933 expected quality adjusted life weeks and 10.9% healing rate. When treated with SoC, the total expected cost per patient for a six month period is £3109, 15.852 expected quality adjusted life weeks and 8% healing rate. Therefore, the superabsorbent dressing leads to an increase in quality-adjusted life weeks, an increase in healing rate by 2.9% and a cost-saving of £222 per single average patient over six months. Results of several scenario analyses, one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of base-case results. The probabilistic analysis confirmed that, in any combination of variable values, the superabsorbent dressing leads to cost saving results.

CONCLUSION

According to the model prediction, the superabsorbent dressing leads to an increase in health benefits and a decrease in associated costs of treatment.

The Use of Primary Care Big Data in Understanding the Pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19: A Consensus Statement From the COVID-19 Primary Care Database Consortium

The use of big data containing millions of primary care medical records provides an opportunity for rapid research to help inform patient care and policy decisions during the first and subsequent waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Routinely collected primary care data have previously been used for national pandemic surveillance, quantifying associations between exposures and outcomes, identifying high risk populations, and examining the effects of interventions at scale, but there is no consensus on how to effectively conduct or report these data for COVID-19 research. A COVID-19 primary care database consortium was established in April 2020 and its researchers have ongoing COVID-19 projects in overlapping data sets with over 40 million primary care records in the United Kingdom that are variously linked to public health, secondary care, and vital status records. This consensus agreement is aimed at facilitating transparency and rigor in methodological approaches, and consistency in defining and reporting cases, exposures, confounders, stratification variables, and outcomes in relation to the pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19. This will facilitate comparison, validation, and meta-analyses of research during and after the pandemic.

Variation in availability and use of surgical care for female urinary incontinence: a mixed-methods study

Background

Urinary incontinence affects between 25% and 45% of women. The availability and quality of services is variable and inequitable, but our understanding of the drivers is incomplete.

Objectives

The objectives of the study were to model patient, specialist clinician, primary and secondary care, and geographical factors associated with referral and surgery for urinary incontinence, and to explore women’s experiences of urinary incontinence and expectations of treatments.

Design

This was a mixed-methods study.

Setting

The setting was NHS England.

Participants

Data were collected from all women with a urinary incontinence diagnosis in primary care data, and all women undergoing mid-urethral mesh tape surgery for stress urinary incontinence were included. Interviews were also carried out with 28 women from four urogynaecology clinics who were deciding whether or not to have surgery, and surveys were completed by 245 members of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists with a specialist interest in urinary incontinence.

Data sources

The sources were patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the Office for National Statistics mortality data linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. Interviews were conducted with women. An online vignette survey was conducted with members of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were the rates of referral from primary to secondary care and surgery after referral, the rates of stress urinary incontinence surgery by geographical area, the risk of mid-urethral mesh tape removal and reoperation after mid-urethral mesh tape insertion.

Results

Almost half (45.8%) of women with a new urinary incontinence diagnosis in primary care were referred to a urinary incontinence specialist: 59.5% of these referrals were within 30 days of diagnosis. In total, 14.2% of women referred to a specialist underwent a urinary incontinence procedure (94.5% of women underwent a stress urinary incontinence procedure and 5.5% underwent an urgency urinary incontinence procedure) during a follow-up period of up to 10 years. Not all women were equally likely to be referred or receive surgery. Both referral and surgery were less likely for older women, those who were obese and those from minority ethnic backgrounds. The stress urinary incontinence surgery rate was 40 procedures per 100,000 women per year, with substantial geographical variation. Among women undergoing mid-urethral mesh tape insertion for stress urinary incontinence, the 9-year mesh tape removal rate was 3.3%. Women’s decision-making about urinary incontinence surgery centred on perceptions of their urinary incontinence severity and the seriousness/risk of surgery. Women judged urinary incontinence severity in relation to their daily lives and other women’s experiences, rather than frequency or quantity of leakage, as is often recorded and used by clinicians. Five groups of UK gynaecologists could be distinguished who differed mainly in their average inclination to recommend surgery to hypothetical urinary incontinence patients. The gynaecologists’ recommendations were also influenced by urinary incontinence subtype and the patient’s history of previous surgery.

Limitations

The primary and secondary care data lacked information on the severity of urinary incontinence.

Conclusions

There was substantial variation in rates of referrals, surgery, and mesh tape removals, both geographically and between women of different ages and women from different ethnic backgrounds. The variation persisted after adjustment for factors that were likely to affect women’s preferences. Growing safety concerns over mid-urethral mesh tape surgery for stress urinary incontinence during the period from which the data are drawn are likely to have introduced more uncertainty to women’s and clinicians’ treatment decision-making.

Future work

Future work should capture outcomes relevant to women, including ongoing urinary incontinence and pain that is reported by women themselves, both before and after mesh and non-mesh procedures, as well as following conservative treatments. Future research should examine long-term patient-reported outcomes of treatment, including for women who do not seek further health care or surgery, and the extent to which urinary incontinence severity explains observed variation in referrals and surgery.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Shorter and longer courses of antibiotics for common infections and the association with reductions of infection-related complications including hospital admissions

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance is a serious global health concern that emphasises completing treatment course. Recently, the effectiveness of short versus longer antibiotic courses has been questioned. This study investigated the duration of prescribed antibiotics, their effectiveness and associated risk of infection-related complications.

METHODS

Clinical Practice Research Datalink identified 4 million acute infection episodes prescribed an antibiotic in primary care between January 2014 - June 2014, England. Prescriptions were categorised by duration. Risk of infection-related hospitalisations within 30 days was modelled overall and by infection type. Risk was assessed immediately after or within 30 days follow-up to measure confounders given similar and varying exposure respectively. An interaction term with follow-up time assessed whether hazards ratios (HR) remained parallel with different antibiotic durations.

RESULTS

The duration of antibiotic courses increased over the study period (5.2-19.1%); 6-7 days were most common (66.9%). Most infection-related hospitalisations occurred with prescriptions of 8-15 days (0.21%), accompanied by greater risk of infection-related complications compared to patients that received a short prescription (HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.54-2.00]). Comparing HRs in the first 5 days versus remaining follow-up showed longer antibiotic courses were no more effective than shorter courses (1.02 [95% CI 0.90-1.16] and 0.92 [95% CI 0.75-1.12]). No variation by infection-type was observed.

CONCLUSION

Equal effectiveness was found between shorter and longer antibiotic courses and the reduction of infection-related hospitalisations. Stewardship programmes should recommend shorter courses of antibiotics for acute infections. Further research is required for treating patients with a complex medical history.

Non-benzodiazepine hypnotic use for sleep disturbance in people aged over 55 years living with dementia: a series of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Sleep disturbance affects around 60% of people living with dementia and can negatively affect their quality of life and that of their carers. Hypnotic Z-drugs (zolpidem, zopiclone and zaleplon) are commonly used to treat insomnia, but their safety and efficacy have not been evaluated for people living with dementia.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the benefits and harms of Z-drugs in people living with dementia with sleep disturbance.

DESIGN

A series of observational cohort studies using existing data from (1) primary care linked to hospital admission data and (2) clinical cohort studies of people living with dementia.

DATA SOURCES

Primary care study - Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Clinical cohort studies - the Resource Use and Disease Course in Dementia - Nursing Homes (REDIC) study, National Alzheimer's Coordinating Centre (NACC) clinical data set and the Improving Well-being and Health for People with Dementia (WHELD) in nursing homes randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Primary care study - 371 primary care practices in England. Clinical cohort studies - 47 nursing homes in Norway, 34 Alzheimer's disease centres in the USA and 69 care homes in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Primary care study - NHS England primary care patients diagnosed with dementia and aged > 55 years, with sleep disturbance or prescribed Z-drugs or low-dose tricyclic antidepressants, followed over 2 years. Clinical cohort studies - people living with dementia consenting to participate, followed over 3 years, 12 years and 9 months, for REDIC, NACC and WHELD, respectively.

INTERVENTIONS

The primary exposure was prescription or use of Z-drugs. Secondary exposures included prescription or use of benzodiazepines, low-dose tricyclic antidepressants and antipsychotics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Falls, fractures, infection, stroke, venous thromboembolism, mortality, cognitive function and quality of life. There were insufficient data to investigate sleep disturbance.

RESULTS

The primary care study and combined clinical cohort studies included 6809 and 18,659 people living with dementia, with 3089 and 914 taking Z-drugs, respectively. New Z-drug use was associated with a greater risk of fractures (hazard ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.94), with risk increasing with greater cumulative dose (p = 0.002). The hazard ratio for Z-drug use and hip fracture was 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 2.53) and for mortality was 1.34 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.64). No excess risks of falls, infections, stroke or venous thromboembolism were detected. Z-drug use also did not have an impact on cognition, neuropsychiatric symptoms, disability or quality of life.

LIMITATIONS

Primary care study - possible residual confounding because of difficulties in identifying patients with sleep disturbance and by dementia severity. Clinical cohort studies - the small numbers of people living with dementia taking Z-drugs and outcomes not necessarily being measured before Z-drug initiation restricted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a dose-dependent increase in fracture risk, but no other harms, with Z-drug use in dementia. However, multiple outcomes were examined, increasing the risk of false-positive findings. The mortality association was unlikely to be causal. Further research is needed to confirm the increased fracture risk. Decisions to prescribe Z-drugs may need to consider the risk of fractures, balanced against the impact of improved sleep for people living with dementia and that of their carers. Our findings suggest that when Z-drugs are prescribed, falls prevention strategies may be needed, and that the prescription should be regularly reviewed.

FUTURE WORK

More research is needed on safe and effective management strategies for sleep disturbance in people living with dementia.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies (EU PAS) 18006.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 1. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Hormone replacement therapy and asthma onset in menopausal women: National cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty about the role of hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) in the development of asthma.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether use of HRT and duration of use was associated with risk of development of asthma in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

METHODS

We constructed a 17-year (from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016) open cohort of 353,173 women (aged 46-70 years) from the Optimum Patient Care Database, a longitudinal primary care database from across the United Kingdom. HRT use, subtypes, and duration of use; confounding variables; and asthma onset were defined by using the Read Clinical Classification System. We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

During the 17-year follow-up (1,340,423 person years), 7,614 new asthma cases occurred, giving an incidence rate of 5.7 (95% CI = 5.5-5.8) per 1,000 person years. Compared with nonuse of HRT, previous use of any (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88), estrogen-only (HR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.84-0.95), or combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88) HRT was associated with a reduced risk of asthma onset. This was also the case with current use of any (HR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.74-0.85), estrogen-only (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.73-0.87), and combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.70-0.87) HRT. Longer duration of HRT use (1-2 years [HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87-0.99]; 3-4 years [HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.70-0.84]; and ≥5 years [HR = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.78]) was associated with a dose-response reduced risk of asthma onset.

CONCLUSION

We found that HRT was associated with a reduced risk of development of late onset asthma in menopausal women. Further cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Hormonal contraception and the risk of severe asthma exacerbation: 17-year population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies investigating impact of exogenous sex steroids on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are lacking. We investigated the association between use of hormonal contraceptives and risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women with asthma.

METHODS

We used the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a population-based, longitudinal, anonymised primary care database in the UK, to construct a 17-year (1 January 2000-31 December 2016) retrospective cohort of reproductive-age (16-45 years, n=83 084) women with asthma. Using Read codes, we defined use, subtypes and duration of use of hormonal contraceptives. Severe asthma exacerbation was defined according to recommendations of the European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society as asthma-related hospitalisation, accident and emergency department visits due to asthma and/or oral corticosteroid prescriptions. Analyses were done using multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression with QR decomposition.

RESULTS

The 17-year follow-up resulted in 456 803 person-years of follow-up time. At baseline, 34% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives, 25% combined (oestrogen/progestogen) and 9% progestogen-only contraceptives. Previous (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97) and current (IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.98) use of any, previous (IRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97) and current use of combined (IRR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.96) and longer duration of use (3-4 years: IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97; 5+ years: IRR 0.91, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.93) of hormonal contraceptives, but not progestogen-only contraceptives, were associated with reduced risk of severe asthma exacerbation compared with non-use.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of hormonal contraceptives may reduce the risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women. Mechanistic studies investigating the biological basis for the influence of hormonal contraceptives on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are required.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION NUMBER

European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies (EUPAS22967).

Examining opioid prescribing trends for non-cancer pain using an estimated oral morphine equivalence measure: a retrospective cohort study between 2005 and 2015

Background

Over the past 20 years prescription of opioid medicines has markedly increased in the UK, despite a lack of supporting evidence for use in commonly occurring, painful conditions. Prescribing is often monitored by counting numbers of prescriptions dispensed, but this may not provide an accurate picture of clinical practice.

Aim

To use an estimated oral morphine equivalent (OMEQ_e) dose to describe trends in opioid prescribing in non-cancer pain, and explore if opioid burden differed by deprivation status.

Design & setting

A retrospective cohort study using cross-sectional and longitudinal trend analyses of opioid prescribing data from Welsh Primary Care General Practices (PCGP) took place. Data were used from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank.

Method

An OMEQ_e measure was developed and used to describe trends in opioid burden over the study period. OMEQ_e burden was stratified by eight drug groups, which was based on usage and deprivation.

Results

An estimated 643 436 843 milligrams (mg) OMEQ_e was issued during the study. Annual number of prescriptions increased 44% between 2005 and 2015, while total daily OMEQ_e per 1000 population increased by 95%. The most deprived areas of Wales had 100 711 696 mg more OMEQ_e prescribed than the least deprived over the study period.

Conclusion

Over the study period, OMEQ_e burden nearly doubled, with disproportionate OMEQ_e prescribed in the most deprived communities. Using OMEQ_e provides an alternative measure of prescribing and allows easier comparison of the contribution different drugs make to the overall opioid burden.

Prescribers' compliance with summary of product characteristics of dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban-A European comparative drug utilization study

Despite a tremendous increase of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) prescriptions in recent years, only few data is available analysing prescribers' adherence to Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC). We aimed to assess adherence to registered indications, contraindications, special warnings/precautions, and potential drug-drug interactions for three DOAC compounds (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban) in six databases of five European countries (The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, and Germany). We included adult patients (≥18 years) initiating DOACs between 2008 and 2015. For several SmPC items, broad definitions were used due to ambiguous SmPC terms or lacking data in some databases. Within the study period, a DOAC was initiated in 407 576 patients (rivaroxaban: 240 985 (59.1%), dabigatran: 95 303 (23.4%), and apixaban: 71 288 (17.5%)). In 2015, non-valvular atrial fibrillation was the most common indication (>60% in most databases). For the whole study period, a substantial variation between the databases was found regarding the proportion of patients with at least one contraindication (inter-database range [IDR]: 8.2%-55.7%), with at least one special warning/precaution (IDR: 35.8%-75.2%) and with at least one potential drug-drug interaction (IDR: 22.4%-54.1%). In 2015, the most frequent contraindication was "malignant neoplasm" (IDR: 0.7%-21.3%) whereas the most frequent special warning/precaution was "prescribing to the elderly" (≥75 years; IDR: 25.0%-66.4%). The most common single compound class interaction was "concomitant use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs" (IDR: 3.0%-25.3%). Contraindications, special warnings/precautions, and potential drug-drug interactions were present in a relevant number of new DOAC users. Due to broad definitions used for some SmPC terms, overall proportions for contraindications are prone to overestimation. However, for unambiguous SmPC terms documented in the databases sufficiently, the respective estimates can be considered valid. Differences between databases might be related to "true" differences in prescription behaviour, but could also be partially due to differences in database characteristics.

Determinants of referral of women with urinary incontinence to specialist services: a national cohort study using primary care data from the UK

BACKGROUND

Female urinary incontinence is underdiagnosed and undertreated in primary care. There is little evidence on factors that determine whether women with urinary incontinence are referred to specialist services. This study aimed to investigate characteristics associated with referrals from primary to specialist secondary care for urinary incontinence.

METHODS

We carried out a cohort study, using primary care data from over 600 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in the United Kingdom. We used multi-level logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) that reflect the impact of patient and GP practice-level characteristics on referrals to specialist services in secondary care within 30 days of a urinary incontinence diagnosis. All women aged ≥18 years newly diagnosed with urinary incontinence between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2013 were included. One-year referral was estimated with death as competing event.

RESULTS

Of the 104,466 included women (median age: 58 years), 28,476 (27.3%) were referred within 30 days. Referral rates decreased with age (aOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.31-0.37, comparing women aged ≥80 with those aged 40-49 years) and was lower among women who were severely obese (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.90), smokers (aOR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.98), women from a minority-ethnic backgrounds (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.89 comparing Asian with white women), women with pelvic organ prolapse (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87), and women in Scotland (aOR 0.60, 95% CI 0.46-0.78, comparing women in Scotland and England). One-year referral rate was 34.0% and the pattern of associations with patient characteristics was almost the same as for 30-day referrals.

CONCLUSIONS

About one in four women with urinary incontinence were referred to specialist secondary care services within one month after a UI diagnosis and one in three within one year. Referral rates decreased with age which confirms concerns that older women with UI are less likely to receive care according to existing clinical guidelines. Referral rates were also lower in women from minority-ethnic backgrounds. These finding may reflect clinicians' beliefs about the appropriateness of referral, differences in women's preferences for treatment, or other factors leading to inequities in referral for urinary incontinence.

[Evolution of the outpatient antibiotic prescription between 2012 and 2018. Characteristics of the ABPresclín platform created for the analysis of antibiotic prescription in the health service of the Balearic Islands.]

OBJECTIVE

One of the fist lines of action of the National Plan against Antibiotic Resistance (PRAN) is to monitor the use of antibiotics as a fundamental basis for the fight against resistance. In order to know the antibiotic prescription habits, we pretended to describe the outpatient prescription of systemic antibiotics in the Balearic Islands through exploitation of ABPresclín database.

METHODS

It was an ecological descriptive study of the electronic outpatient prescriptions of systemic antibiotics of the Health Service of the Balearic Islands from 2012 to 2018. Combining the prescription with population information data by year and geographical area, prescription rates were obtained per 1,000 person, distributed by professional, health centres, geographical areas: distribution per patient characteristics, type of antibiotics and associated diagnoses.

RESULTS

3,517,101 prescriptions are analyzed with an average prescription period (TPp) per 1,000 person-years of 472.1. A quarter of the population received at least one prescription of antibiotics. TPp was higher in over 80 years (899.0) and in women (553.4). 68.9% of the prescription was made in primary care (AP) and 17.9% in out-of-hours settings. TPp in AP was 333.1, varying from 192.3 to 527.0, according to basic health areas. The TPp of the most commonly used antibiotics was: amoxicillin/clavulanic (143), amoxicillin (95.9), azithromycin (54.5), fosfomycin (41.5) and ciprofloxacin (29.7). The main associated diagnoses were: lower respiratory infections (16.5%), urinary infections (15%), non-infectious (15%), tonsillitis (14.3%) and upper respiratory infections (13%).

CONCLUSIONS

Balearic Islands have a relatively low antibiotic prescription rate with a marked variability between prescribers. Amoxicillin/clavulanic was the most prescribed antibiotic, with an increase in azithromycin. Respiratory infections were the main reason for prescription. ABPresclín is useful to promote better use of antibiotics.

Data extraction for epidemiological research (DExtER): a novel tool for automated clinical epidemiology studies

The use of primary care electronic health records for research is abundant. The benefits gained from utilising such records lies in their size, longitudinal data collection and data quality. However, the use of such data to undertake high quality epidemiological studies, can lead to significant challenges particularly in dealing with misclassification, variation in coding and the significant effort required to pre-process the data in a meaningful format for statistical analysis. In this paper, we describe a methodology to aid with the extraction and processing of such databases, delivered by a novel software programme; the "Data extraction for epidemiological research" (DExtER). The basis of DExtER relies on principles of extract, transform and load processes. The tool initially provides the ability for the healthcare dataset to be extracted, then transformed in a format whereby data is normalised, converted and reformatted. DExtER has a user interface designed to obtain data extracts specific to each research question and observational study design. There are facilities to input the requirements for; eligible study period, definition of exposed and unexposed groups, outcome measures and important baseline covariates. To date the tool has been utilised and validated in a multitude of settings. There have been over 35 peer-reviewed publications using the tool, and DExtER has been implemented as a validated public health surveillance tool for obtaining accurate statistics on epidemiology of key morbidities. Future direction of this work will be the application of the framework to linked as well as international datasets and the development of standardised methods for conducting electronic pre-processing and extraction from datasets for research purposes.

Antibiotic prescribing for common infections in UK general practice: variability and drivers

Objectives

To examine variations across general practices and factors associated with antibiotic prescribing for common infections in UK primary care to identify potential targets for improvement and optimization of prescribing.

Methods

Oral antibiotic prescribing for common infections was analysed using anonymized UK primary care electronic health records between 2000 and 2015 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The rate of prescribing for each condition was observed over time and mean change points were compared with national guideline updates. Any correlation between the rate of prescribing for each infectious condition was estimated within a practice. Predictors of prescribing were estimated using logistic regression in a matched patient cohort (1:1 by age, sex and calendar time).

Results

Over 8 million patient records were examined in 587 UK general practices. Practices varied considerably in their propensity to prescribe antibiotics and this variance increased over time. Change points in prescribing did not reflect updates to national guidelines. Prescribing levels within practices were not consistent for different infectious conditions. A history of antibiotic use significantly increased the risk of receiving a subsequent antibiotic (by 22%–48% for patients with three or more antibiotic prescriptions in the past 12 months), as did higher BMI, history of smoking and flu vaccinations. Other drivers for receiving an antibiotic varied considerably for each condition.

Conclusions

Large variability in antibiotic prescribing between practices and within practices was observed. Prescribing guidelines alone do not positively influence a change in prescribing, suggesting more targeted interventions are required to optimize antibiotic prescribing in the UK.

Mortality among patients with polymyalgia rheumatica: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a diagnosis of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) is associated with premature mortality.

METHODS

We extracted anonymised electronic medical records of patients over the age of 40 years, who were eligible for linkage with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Death Registration dataset, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1990-2016. Patients with PMR were individually matched by age, sex and registered General Practice with up to 5 controls without PMR. The total number and proportion of deaths and mortality rates were calculated. The mortality rate ratio (MRR), with 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted for age, sex, region, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption, was calculated using Poisson regression. The twenty most common causes of death were tabulated.

RESULTS

18,943 patients with PMR were matched to 87,801 controls. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up after date of diagnosis was 8.0 (4.4) years in patients with PMR, and 7.9 (4.6) in controls. PMR was not associated with an increase in the risk of death (adjusted MRR 1.00 [95% CI 0.97, 1.03]) compared to matched controls. Causes of death were broadly similar between patients with PMR and controls, although patients with PMR were slightly more likely to have a vascular cause of death recorded (24% vs 23%).

CONCLUSIONS

A diagnosis with PMR does not appear to increase the risk of premature death. Minor variations in cause of death were observed, but overall this study is reassuring for patients with PMR and clinicians.

Eleven-year multimorbidity burden among 637 255 people with and without type 2 diabetes: a population-based study using primary care and linked hospitalisation data

OBJECTIVES

To compare the patterns of 18 physical and mental health comorbidities between people with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) and people without diabetes and how these change by age, gender and deprivation over time between 2004 and 2014. Also, to develop a metric to identify most prevalent comorbidities in people with T2D.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Primary and secondary care, England, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

108 588 people with T2D and 528 667 comparators registered in 391 English general practices. Each patient with T2D aged ≥16 years between January 2004 and December 2014 registered in Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD practices was matched to up to five comparators without diabetes on age, gender and general practice.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of 18 physical and mental health comorbidities in people with T2D and comparators categorised by age, gender and deprivation. Odds for association between T2D diagnosis and comorbidities versus comparators. A metric for comorbidities with prevalence of ≥5% and/or odds ≥2 in patients with T2D.

RESULTS

Overall, 77% of patients with T2D had ≥1 comorbidity and all comorbidities were more prevalent in patients with T2D than in comparators. Across both groups, prevalence rates were higher in older people, women and those most socially deprived. Conditional logistic regression models fitted to estimate (OR, 95% CI) for association between T2D diagnosis and comorbidities showed that T2D diagnosis was significantly associated with higher odds for all conditions including myocardial infarction (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.85 to 2.46); heart failure (OR 2.12, 1.84 to 2.43); depression (OR 1.75, 1.62 to 1.89), but non-significant for cancer (OR 1.12, 0.98 to 1.28). In addition to cardiovascular disease, the metric identified osteoarthritis, hypothyroidism, anxiety, schizophrenia and respiratory conditions as highly prevalent comorbidities in people with T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

T2D diagnosis is associated with higher likelihood of experiencing other physical and mental illnesses. People with T2D are twice as likely to have cardiovascular disease as the general population. The findings highlight highly prevalent and under-reported comorbidities in people with T2D. These findings can inform future research and clinical guidelines and can have important implications on healthcare resource allocation and highlight the need for more holistic clinical care for people with recently diagnosed T2D.

Delays in referral from primary care worsen survival for patients with colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Delays in referral for patients with colorectal cancer may occur if the presenting symptom is falsely attributed to a benign condition.

AIM

To investigate whether delays in referral from primary care are associated with a later stage of cancer at diagnosis and worse prognosis.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A national retrospective cohort study in England including adult patients with colorectal cancer identified from the cancer registry with linkage to Clinical Practice Research Datalink, who had been referred following presentation to their GP with a 'red flag' or 'non-specific' symptom.

METHOD

The hazard ratios (HR) of death were calculated for delays in referral of between 2 weeks and 3 months, and >3 months, compared with referrals within 2 weeks.

RESULTS

A total of 4527 (63.5%) patients with colon cancer and 2603 (36.5%) patients with rectal cancer were included in the study. The percentage of patients presenting with red-flag symptoms who experienced a delay of >3 months before referral was 16.9% of those with colon cancer and 13.5% of those with rectal cancer, compared with 35.7% of patients with colon cancer and 42.9% of patients with rectal cancer who presented with non-specific symptoms. Patients referred after 3 months with red-flag symptoms demonstrated a significantly worse prognosis than patients who were referred within 2 weeks (colon cancer: HR 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.81; rectal cancer: HR 1.30; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.60). This association was not seen for patients presenting with non-specific symptoms. Delays in referral were associated with a significantly higher proportion of late-stage cancers.

CONCLUSION

The first presentation to the GP provides a referral opportunity to identify the underlying cancer, which, if missed, is associated with a later stage in diagnosis and worse survival.

Comparison of antibiotic prescribing records in two UK primary care electronic health record systems: cohort study using CPRD GOLD and CPRD Aurum databases

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate recording of antibiotic prescribing from two primary care electronic health record systems.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

UK general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases: CPRD GOLD (Vision data) and CPRD Aurum (EMIS data). English CPRD GOLD general practices were analysed as a subgroup, as all CPRD Aurum practices were located in England.

PARTICIPANTS

158 305 patients were randomly sampled from CPRD Aurum and 160 394 from CPRD GOLD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Antibiotic prescriptions in 2017 were identified. Age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rates per 1000 person years were calculated. Prescribing of individual antibiotic products and associated medical diagnoses was evaluated.

RESULTS

There were 101 360 antibiotic prescriptions at 883 CPRD Aurum practices and 112 931 prescriptions at 290 CPRD GOLD practices, including 112 general practices in England. The age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rate in 2017 was 512.6 (95% CI 510.4 to 514.9) per 1000 person years in CPRD Aurum and 584.3 (582.1 to 586.5) per 1000 person years in CPRD GOLD (505.2 (501.6 to 508.9) per 1000 person years if restricted to practices in England). The 25 most frequently prescribed antibiotic products were similar in both databases. One or more medical codes were recorded on the same date as an antibiotic prescription for 72 989 (74%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 84 756 (78%) in CPRD GOLD and 28 471 (78%) for CPRD GOLD in England. Skin, respiratory and genitourinary tract infections were recorded for 39 035 (40%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 41 326 (38%) in CPRD GOLD, with 15 481 (42%) in English CPRD GOLD practices only.

CONCLUSION

Estimates for antibiotic prescribing and infection recording were broadly similar in both databases suggesting similar recording across EMIS and Vision systems. Future research on antimicrobial stewardship can also be conducted using primary care data in CPRD Aurum.

Existing Data Sources in Clinical Epidemiology: Laboratory Information System Databases in Denmark

Routine biomarker results from hospital laboratory information systems, covering hospitals and general practitioners, in Denmark are available to researchers through access to the regional Clinical Laboratory Information System Research Database at Aarhus University and the nationwide Register of Laboratory Results for Research. This review describes these two data sources. The laboratory databases have different geographical and temporal coverage. They both include individual-level biomarker results that are electronically transferred from laboratory information systems. The biomarker results can be linked to all other Danish registries at the individual level, using the unique identifier, the CPR number. The databases include variables such as the CPR number, date and time (hour and minute) of sampling, NPU code, and name of the biomarker, identification code for the laboratory and the requisitioner, the test result with the corresponding unit, and the lower and upper reference limits. Access to the two databases differs since they are hosted by two different institutions. Data cannot be transferred outside Denmark, and direct access is provided only to Danish institutions. It is concluded that access to data on routine biomarkers expands the detailed biological and clinical information available on patients in the Danish healthcare system. The full potential is enabled through linkage to other Danish healthcare registries.

Development and validation of the DIabetes Severity SCOre (DISSCO) in 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Clinically applicable diabetes severity measures are lacking, with no previous studies comparing their predictive value with glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c). We developed and validated a type 2 diabetes severity score (the DIabetes Severity SCOre, DISSCO) and evaluated its association with risks of hospitalization and mortality, assessing its additional risk information to sociodemographic factors and HbA_1c.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used UK primary and secondary care data for 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2017, aged ≥35 years, and registered in general practices in England. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort (n=111 748, 80%) to develop the severity tool and a validation cohort (n=27 878). We developed baseline and longitudinal severity scores using 34 diabetes-related domains. Cox regression models (adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, and HbA_1c) were used for primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary (hospitalization due to any cause, diabetes, hypoglycemia, or cardiovascular disease or procedures) outcomes. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests were fitted to assess the significance of adding DISSCO to the sociodemographics and HbA_1c models.

RESULTS

A total of 139 626 patients registered in 400 general practices, aged 63±12 years were included, 45% of whom were women, 83% were White, and 18% were from deprived areas. The mean baseline severity score was 1.3±2.0. Overall, 27 362 (20%) people died and 99 951 (72%) had ≥1 hospitalization. In the training cohort, a one-unit increase in baseline DISSCO was associated with higher hazard of mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.15, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC)=0.76) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR: 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.46, AUROC=0.73). The LR tests showed that adding DISSCO to sociodemographic variables significantly improved the predictive value of survival models, outperforming the added value of HbA_1c for all outcomes. Findings were consistent in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of DISSCO are associated with higher risks for hospital admissions and mortality. The new severity score had higher predictive value than the proxy used in clinical practice, HbA_1c. This reproducible algorithm can help practitioners stratify clinical care of patients with type 2 diabetes.

Hormonal contraceptives and onset of asthma in reproductive-age women: Population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite well-described sex differences in asthma incidence, there remains uncertainty about the role of female sex hormones in the development of asthma.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to investigate whether hormonal contraceptive use, its subtypes, and duration of use were associated with new-onset asthma in reproductive-age women.

METHODS

Using the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a UK national primary care database, we constructed an open cohort of 16- to 45-year-old women (N = 564,896) followed for up to 17 years (ie, January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016). We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to analyze the data.

RESULTS

At baseline, 26% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives. During follow-up (3,597,146 person-years), 25,288 women developed asthma, an incidence rate of 7.0 (95% CI, 6.9-7.1) per 1000 person-years. Compared with nonuse, previous use of any hormonal contraceptives (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), combined (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.74) was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma. For current use, the estimates were as follows: any (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61-0.65), combined (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.62-0.67), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.62). Longer duration of use (1-2 years: HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.86; 3-4 years: HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.67; 5+ years: HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.44-0.49) was associated with a lower risk of asthma onset than nonuse.

CONCLUSIONS

Hormonal contraceptive use was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma in women of reproductive age. Mechanistic investigations to uncover the biological processes for these observations are required. Clinical trials investigating the safety and effectiveness of hormonal contraceptives for primary prevention of asthma will be helpful to confirm these results.

Protocol for a scoping review of the current data practices in forensic medicine

BACKGROUND

Data related to forensic postmortems or autopsies are still mainly captured in hard copy format and archived. This paper-based practice impacts on the practitioner's ability to report on incidence, prevalence, and statistical trends related to cases that are commonly seen in mortuaries in forensic medicine. An autopsy can be used to inform and provide evidence-based knowledge for further research about important issues, including social development and assist in providing statistics and data for public health initiatives for implementation and monitoring. Currently, in forensic medicine and pathology research developments are largely hampered by the inefficient data capturing system which only allows access to basic information while pertinent information is largely recorded manually and is therefore difficult to obtain. There is thus a need to improve the efficiency of the data capturing system in forensic pathology, and this review is intended to inform the choice and decisions of appropriate data capture practices and is being conducted to identify nationally and internationally the current data mining and storage systems in place.

METHODS

The methodology for this scoping review will be guided by the methodological framework for scoping review. The search strategy was developed by the authors, and we will conduct a search from 1 January 2008 of electronic databases (Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct) and search through WorldCat and PubMed for citations and literature using both keywords and the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH).The electronic search will be supplemented by hand searching references of the included studies and references in journals and websites. All articles will be assessed for eligibility by two reviewers (the primary and secondary authors) and uploaded into EndNote Excel spreadsheet, and duplicates will be identified and removed. The two reviewers (primary and secondary authors) will screen the eligible abstracts and articles against the inclusion criteria, and selection will be on a minimum percentage agreement of 50%. The selection process will be documented by following and using a PRISMA flow diagram. The extracted data will be analyzed and reported in the form of a narrative review with descriptive analysis and text analysis once the data is summarized for description and characterization.

DISCUSSION

The results of this review will identify and describe data capturing, management, and storage practices for use in forensic medicine. It will also review the efficiency of the different data systems and report where possible on the uses of the data system within the forensic medicine and pathology field.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Although research ethics approval is not required for this scoping review because the study will not include human or animal participants, the study was submitted for approval to the University of Kwazulu Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee and obtained provisional approval. Data will be sourced only from published literature and gray literature. The results will be presented at relevant national and international conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal. All search results including excluded studies will be added into an addendum in the article and made available for public perusal to therefore ensure transparency and reproducibility.

Adverse pregnancy outcomes and subsequent development of connective tissue disease in the UK: an epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed prevalence of connective tissue disease (CTDs), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) in women with previous adverse pregnancy outcome compared with uncomplicated livebirths.

DESIGN

Retrospective case-control study.

SETTING

UK Primary Care.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

Records of women, 18 years and older, within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) (1 January 2000-31 December 2013).

METHODS

Clinical Practice Research Datalink was searched for pregnancy terms to identify adverse pregnancy outcome. Each identified case was matched to five livebirths.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnosis of SLE, CTD, APS or autoimmune antibodies. Poisson regression was performed to calculate relative risk ratios (RR), comparing adverse pregnancy outcome with livebirth cohorts.

RESULTS

Clinical Practice Research Datalink identified 20 123 adverse pregnancy outcomes matched to 97 323 livebirths, with a total of 875 590 person-years follow up. Median follow up from study entry was 7.29 years (SD 4.39). Compared with women with an uncomplicated livebirth, women with adverse pregnancy outcome had an increased risk of developing CTD or autoimmune antibodies (RR 3.20, 95% CI 2.90-3.51). Risk was greatest following a stillbirth (RR 5.82, 95% CI 4.97-6.81). For CTD and SLE, the risk was greatest within the first 5 years of adverse pregnancy outcome. Risk for aPL and APS diagnosis was highest ≥5 years from adverse pregnancy outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Adverse pregnancy outcome is associated with increased risk of developing maternal CTD, including SLE. Either immunological factors predispose women to adverse pregnancy outcome and subsequent CTD diagnosis or, alternatively, adverse pregnancy outcome initiates autoimmune events which culminate in CTD in later life.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Stillbirth is associated with increased maternal risk of developing systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

Modeling of cumulative effects of time-varying drug exposures on within-subject changes in a continuous outcome

An accurate assessment of the safety or effectiveness of drugs in pharmaco-epidemiological studies requires defining an etiologically correct time-varying exposure model, which specifies how previous drug use affects the outcome of interest. To address this issue, we develop, and validate in simulations, a new approach for flexible modeling of the cumulative effects of time-varying exposures on repeated measures of a continuous response variable, such as a quantitative surrogate outcome, or a biomarker. Specifically, we extend the linear mixed effects modeling to estimate how past and recent drug exposure affects the way individual values of the outcome change throughout the follow-up. To account for the dosage, duration and timing of past exposures, we rely on a flexible weighted cumulative exposure methodology to model the cumulative effects of past drug use, as the weighted sum of past doses. Weights, modeled with unpenalized cubic regression B-splines, reflect the relative importance of doses taken at different times in the past. In simulations, we evaluate the performance of the model under different assumptions concerning (i) the shape of the weight function, (ii) the sample size, (iii) the number of the longitudinal observations and (iv) the intra-individual variance. Results demonstrate the accuracy of our estimates of the weight function and of the between- and within-patients variances, and good correlation between the observed and predicted longitudinal changes in the outcome. We then apply the proposed method to re-assess the association between time-varying glucocorticoid exposure and weight gain in people living with rheumatoid arthritis.

Primary Care Prescriptions of Potentially Nephrotoxic Medications in Children with CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Pediatric CKD management focuses on limiting kidney injury, including avoiding nephrotoxic medications. Nephrotoxic medication prescription practices for children with CKD are unknown. Our objective was to determine the prevalence and rates of primary care prescriptions for potentially nephrotoxic medications in children with CKD versus without CKD.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We conducted a retrospective, matched population-based cohort study of patients aged <18 years, registered at a general practice participating in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 1997 to 2017. Children with a clinical code indicating an incident diagnosis of CKD were matched 1:4 to patients without CKD on CKD diagnosis date, sex, age, CPRD practice, and number of general practitioner visits in the year before cohort entry. We calculated the prevalence and the rate of potentially nephrotoxic medication prescriptions throughout the follow-up period in patients with versus without CKD. Primary analyses included the following medication classes: aminoglycosides, antivirals, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, salicylates, proton pump inhibitors, and immunomodulators. Secondary analyses used an expanded nephrotoxicity definition that also included, among others, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. Adjusted prescription rates were calculated using multivariable binomial regression.

RESULTS

From 1,535,816 eligible patients, we identified 1018 incident CKD and 4072 non-CKD matches (mean age, 9.8 years [range, 1.1-17.9 years]; 52% male; mean follow-up time, 3.3 years). Overall, 26% of patients with and 15% of patients without CKD were prescribed one or more potentially nephrotoxic medication during follow-up. The overall rate of nephrotoxic medication prescriptions was 71 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 55 to 93) prescriptions per 100 person-years in patients with CKD and eight (95% CI, 7 to 9) prescriptions per 100 person-years in patients without CKD (adjusted rate ratio, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.7 to 6.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Potentially nephrotoxic medications are prescribed at high rates to children with CKD.

The impact of the enhanced recovery pathway and other factors on outcomes and costs following hip and knee replacement: routine data study

Background

There is limited evidence concerning the effectiveness of enhanced recovery programmes in hip and knee replacement surgery, particularly when applied nationwide across a health-care system.

Objectives

To determine the effect of hospital organisation, surgical factors and the enhanced recovery after surgery pathway on patient outcomes and NHS costs of hip and knee replacement.

Design

(1) Statistical analysis of national linked data to explore geographical variations in patient outcomes of surgery. (2) A natural experimental study to determine clinical effectiveness of enhanced recovery after surgery. (3) A qualitative study to identify barriers to, and facilitators of, change. (4) Health economics analysis to establish NHS costs and cost-effectiveness.

Setting

Data from the National Joint Registry, linked to English Hospital Episode Statistics and patient-reported outcome measures in both the geographical variation and natural experiment studies, together with the economic evaluation. The ethnographic study took place in four hospitals in a region of England.

Participants

Qualitative study – 38 health professionals working in hip and knee replacement services in secondary care and 37 patients receiving hip or knee replacement.

Interventions

Natural experiment – implementation of enhanced recovery after surgery at each hospital between 2009 and 2011. Enhanced recovery after surgery is a complex intervention focusing on several areas of patients’ care pathways through surgery: preoperatively (patient is in best possible condition for surgery), perioperatively (patient has best possible management during and after operation) and postoperatively (patient experiences best rehabilitation).

Main outcome measures

Patient-reported pain and function (Oxford Hip Score/Oxford Knee Score); 6-month complications; length of stay; bed-day costs; and revision surgery within 5 years.

Results

Geographical study – there are potentially unwarranted variations in patient outcomes of hip and knee replacement surgery. This variation cannot be explained by differences in patients, case mix, surgical or hospital organisational factors. Qualitative – successful implementation depends on empowering patients to work towards their recovery, providing post-discharge support and promoting successful multidisciplinary team working. Care processes were negotiated between patients and health-care professionals. ‘Good care’ remains an aspiration, particularly in the post-discharge period. Natural experiment – length of stay has declined substantially, pain and function have improved, revision rates are in decline and complication rates remain stable. The introduction of a national enhanced recovery after surgery programme maintained improvement, but did not alter the rate of change already under way. Health economics – costs are high in the year of joint replacement and remain higher in the subsequent year after surgery. There is a strong economic incentive to identify ways of reducing revisions and complications following joint replacement. Published cost-effectiveness evidence supports enhanced recovery pathways as a whole.

Limitations

Short duration of follow-up data prior to enhanced recovery after surgery implementation and missing data, particularly for hospital organisation factors.

Conclusion

No evidence was found to show that enhanced recovery after surgery had a substantial impact on longer-term downwards trends in costs and length of stay. Trends of improving outcomes were seen across all age groups, in those with and without comorbidity, and had begun prior to the formal enhanced recovery after surgery roll-out. Reductions in length of stay have been achieved without adversely affecting patient outcomes, yet, substantial variation remains in outcomes between hospital trusts.

Future work

There is still work to be done to reduce and understand unwarranted variations in outcome between individual hospitals.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017059473.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.