Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Men and Women Aged Under 50 Years Using Routine Care Data

Background Prediction models for risk of cardiovascular events generally do not include young adults, and cardiovascular risk factors differ between women and men. Therefore, this study aimed to develop prediction models for first-ever cardiovascular event risk in men and women aged 30 to 49 years. Methods and Results We included patients aged 30 to 49 years without cardiovascular disease from a Dutch routine care database. Outcome was defined as first-ever cardiovascular event. Our reference models were sex-specific Cox proportional hazards models based on traditional cardiovascular predictors, which we compared with models using 2 predictor subsets with the 20 or 50 most important predictors based on the Cox elastic net model regularization coefficients. We assessed the C-index and calibration curve slopes at 10 years of follow-up. We stratified our analyses based on 30- to 39-year and 40- to 49-year age groups at baseline. We included 542 141 patients (mean age 39.7, 51% women). During follow-up, 10 767 cardiovascular events occurred. Discrimination of reference models including traditional cardiovascular predictors was moderate (women: C-index, 0.648 [95% CI, 0.645-0.652]; men: C-index, 0.661 [95%CI, 0.658-0.664]). In women and men, the Cox proportional hazard models including 50 most important predictors resulted in an increase in C-index (0.030 and 0.012, respectively), and a net correct reclassification of 3.7% of the events in women and 1.2% in men compared with the reference model. Conclusions Sex-specific electronic health record-derived prediction models for first-ever cardiovascular events in the general population aged <50 years have moderate discriminatory performance. Data-driven predictor selection leads to identification of nontraditional cardiovascular predictors, which modestly increase performance of models.

Performance of the SCORE and Globorisk cardiovascular risk prediction models: a prospective cohort study in Dutch general practice

BACKGROUND

GPs frequently use 10-year-risk estimations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify high- risk patients.

AIM

To assess the performance of four models for predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Dutch general practice.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective cohort study. Routine data (2009- 2019) was used from 46 Dutch general practices linked to cause of death statistics.

METHOD

The outcome measures were fatal CVD for SCORE and first diagnosis of fatal or non- fatal CVD for SCORE fatal and non-fatal (SCORE- FNF), Globorisk-laboratory, and Globorisk-office. Model performance was assessed by examining discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The final number of patients for risk prediction was 1981 for SCORE and SCORE-FNF, 3588 for Globorisk-laboratory, and 4399 for Globorisk- office. The observed percentage of events was 18.6% (n = 353) for SCORE- FNF, 6.9% (n = 230) for Globorisk-laboratory, 7.9% (n = 323) for Globorisk-office, and 0.3% (n = 5) for SCORE. The models showed poor discrimination and calibration. The performance of SCORE could not be examined because of the limited number of fatal CVD events. SCORE-FNF, the model that is currently used for risk prediction of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice, was found to underestimate the risk in all deciles of predicted risks.

CONCLUSION

Wide eligibility criteria and a broad outcome measure contribute to the model applicability in daily practice. The restriction to fatal CVD outcomes of SCORE renders it less usable in routine Dutch general practice. The models seriously underestimate the 10-year risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice. The poor model performance is possibly because of differences between patients that are eligible for risk prediction and the population that was used for model development. In addition, selection of higher-risk patients for CVD risk assessment by GPs may also contribute to the poor model performance.

Persistence of C-reactive protein increased levels and high disease activity are predictors of cardiovascular disease in patients with axial spondyloarthritis

An accurate prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a strong unmet need, as CV risk algorithms poorly perform in these subjects. The aim of this study was to establish whether the persistence of high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high disease activity may be considered predictive factors of CVD in axSpA. 295 patients without personal history of CVD, were consecutively enrolled in this study. To evaluate the relationship between CV events occurrence (fatal and non-fatal) and the persistence of increased CRP levels, ASDAS (Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score) > 2.1, and BASDAI (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity) > 4 during the follow-up, univariable and multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard Models have been performed. During follow-up (we analyzed 10-years retrospective data), 23 patients had a CV event. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard Models showed a strong association between CV event and the persistency of increased CRP levels (namely, percentage of visits in which CRP levels were increased) (HR = 1.03; 95%CI 1.015-1.045; p < 0.001), of ASDAS > 2.1 (HR = 1.014, 95%CI 1.000-1.028, p = 0.047), and of BASDAI > 4 (HR 1.019, 95%CI 1.006-1.033, p = 0.006) during follow-up, after adjustment for age, sex, and diabetes. This study suggests that persistence of increased CRP levels and high disease activity may be considered biomarkers to identify those axSpA patients at higher risk of CVD. Innovative axSpA-specific CV risk score, including these variables, have to be developed.

Position statement of the Interamerican Society of Cardiology (IASC) on the current guidelines for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of arterial hypertension 2017-2020

OBJECTIVES

As an Inter-American Society we are convinced of the need to standardize the steps in which we diagnose, evaluate, treat and control hypertension, establishing guidelines and rules that should be adopted in all countries of Latin America, aimed at standardizing management and control of CV risk in order to achieve a substantial decrease in CV events.

METHODS

In the last four years important international guidelines for the diagnosis, management, treatment and control of arterial hypertension have been published. In America, mostly in mid- and low-income countries, hypertension is a major problem of public health, being the most important cardiovascular risk factor due to its great population impact. Therefore, it is crucial to dedicate all the possible efforts to increase substantially the number of hypertensive patients diagnosed in a given area, and to improve the percentage of controlled patients. This is a major necessity in order to reduce the morbidity and mortality for CVD in the Latin American region, although no guidelines takes the Latin American populations into account, and much less standardizes their diagnosis and management.

CONCLUSIONS

The Inter-American Society of Cardiology suggest the use of the blood pressure classification of the Latin American Society of Hypertension (LASH) and recommends the use of the SCORE System to stratify the global CV risk because this system has the capability to adapt the global risk by means of a correcting factor based on the ethnicity of the different native populations in America.

Prediction of cardiovascular events in rheumatoid arthritis using risk age calculations: evaluation of concordance across risk age models

BACKGROUND

In younger individuals, low absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may conceal an increased risk age and relative risk of CVD. Calculation of risk age is proposed as an adjuvant to absolute CVD risk estimation in European guidelines. We aimed to compare the discriminative ability of available risk age models in prediction of CVD in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Secondly, we also evaluated the performance of risk age models in subgroups based on RA disease characteristics.

METHODS

RA patients aged 30-70 years were included from an international consortium named A Trans-Atlantic Cardiovascular Consortium for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ATACC-RA). Prior CVD and diabetes mellitus were exclusion criteria. The discriminatory ability of specific risk age models was evaluated using c-statistics and their standard errors after calculating time until fatal or non-fatal CVD or last follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 1974 patients were included in the main analyses, and 144 events were observed during follow-up, the median follow-up being 5.0 years. The risk age models gave highly correlated results, demonstrating R2 values ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. However, risk age estimations differed > 5 years in 15-32% of patients. C-statistics ranged 0.68-0.72 with standard errors of approximately 0.03. Despite certain RA characteristics being associated with low c-indices, standard errors were high. Restricting analysis to European RA patients yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

The cardiovascular risk age and vascular age models have comparable performance in predicting CVD in RA patients. The influence of RA disease characteristics on the predictive ability of these prediction models remains inconclusive.

2018 ESC/ESH Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Hypertension

: Document reviewers: Guy De Backer (ESC Review Co-ordinator) (Belgium), Anthony M. Heagerty (ESH Review Co-ordinator) (UK), Stefan Agewall (Norway), Murielle Bochud (Switzerland), Claudio Borghi (Italy), Pierre Boutouyrie (France), Jana Brguljan (Slovenia), Héctor Bueno (Spain), Enrico G. Caiani (Italy), Bo Carlberg (Sweden), Neil Chapman (UK), Renata Cifkova (Czech Republic), John G. F. Cleland (UK), Jean-Philippe Collet (France), Ioan Mircea Coman (Romania), Peter W. de Leeuw (The Netherlands), Victoria Delgado (The Netherlands), Paul Dendale (Belgium), Hans-Christoph Diener (Germany), Maria Dorobantu (Romania), Robert Fagard (Belgium), Csaba Farsang (Hungary), Marc Ferrini (France), Ian M. Graham (Ireland), Guido Grassi (Italy), Hermann Haller (Germany), F. D. Richard Hobbs (UK), Bojan Jelakovic (Croatia), Catriona Jennings (UK), Hugo A. Katus (Germany), Abraham A. Kroon (The Netherlands), Christophe Leclercq (France), Dragan Lovic (Serbia), Empar Lurbe (Spain), Athanasios J. Manolis (Greece), Theresa A. McDonagh (UK), Franz Messerli (Switzerland), Maria Lorenza Muiesan (Italy), Uwe Nixdorff (Germany), Michael Hecht Olsen (Denmark), Gianfranco Parati (Italy), Joep Perk (Sweden), Massimo Francesco Piepoli (Italy), Jorge Polonia (Portugal), Piotr Ponikowski (Poland), Dimitrios J. Richter (Greece), Stefano F. Rimoldi (Switzerland), Marco Roffi (Switzerland), Naveed Sattar (UK), Petar M. Seferovic (Serbia), Iain A. Simpson (UK), Miguel Sousa-Uva (Portugal), Alice V. Stanton (Ireland), Philippe van de Borne (Belgium), Panos Vardas (Greece), Massimo Volpe (Italy), Sven Wassmann (Germany), Stephan Windecker (Switzerland), Jose Luis Zamorano (Spain).The disclosure forms of all experts involved in the development of these Guidelines are available on the ESC website www.escardio.org/guidelines.

Discrepancies in risk age and relative risk estimations of cardiovascular disease in patients with inflammatory joint diseases

OBJECTIVE

The European guidelines on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention advise use of relative risk and risk age algorithms for estimating CVD risk in patients with low estimated absolute risk. Patients with inflammatory joint diseases (IJD) are associated with increased risk of CVD. We aimed to estimate relative risk and risk age across IJD entities and evaluate the agreement between 'cardiovascular risk age' and 'vascular age models'.

METHODS

Using cross-sectional data from a nationwide project on CVD risk assessment in IJD, risk age estimations were performed in patients with low/moderate absolute risk of fatal CVD. Risk age was calculated according to the cardiovascular risk age and vascular age model, and risk age estimations were compared using regression analysis and calculating percentage of risk age estimations differing ≥5years.

RESULTS

Relative risk was increased in 53% and 20% had three times or higher risk compared to individuals with optimal CVD risk factor levels. Furthermore, 20-42% had a risk age ≥5years higher than their actual age, according to the specific risk age model. There were only minor differences between IJD entities regarding relative risk and risk age. Discrepancies ≥5years in estimated risk age were observed in 14-43% of patients. The largest observed difference in calculated risk age was 24years.

CONCLUSION

In patients with low estimated absolute risk, estimation of relative CVD risk and risk age may identify additional patients at need of intensive CVD preventive efforts. However, there is a substantial discrepancy between the risk age models.

Cost-Effectiveness of Cardiovascular Screening in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

OBJECTIVE

Early detection and preemptive treatment of patients at risk is of great importance in reducing the excess risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unclear how much screening is cost-effective in RA. The objective is to assess whether CV screening in RA proves to be cost-effective from a medical perspective, using different scenarios based on different guidelines.

METHODS

A Markov chain model was used with a time horizon of 10 years. Parameter values were mainly obtained from literature and from RA patients screened for CV diseases at the Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness expressed as costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed and described in willingness-to-pay curves; several scenarios were built.

RESULTS

In the base case scenario, in 82% of the simulations, screening proved to be dominant compared to no screening. The mean QALY gain was 0.09 (95% percentile -0.07, 0.27), and the mean cost savings were €-1,057 (95% percentile -€2,825, €333). Different scenarios showed small differences in cost-effectiveness; the probability that screening is dominant remained high with the lowest probability being 50% for a very conservative scenario.

CONCLUSION

Screening for CV events in RA patients was estimated to be cost-effective with high chances of being less expensive and more effective. These results support endorsement of screening for CV risk in patients with RA.

Yearly hypertension screening in women with a history of pre-eclampsia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Women with a history of preeclampsia are at increased risk for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD); until now it is not clear whether preventive measures are needed.

Methods

A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to evaluate healthcare costs and effects of screening and treatment (100 % compliance) for hypertension post preeclampsia based on the available literature. Cardiovascular events and CVD mortality were defined as health states. Outcomes were measured in absolute costs, events, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Sensitivity and threshold analyses were performed to address uncertainty.

Results

Over a 20-year time horizon, events occurred in 7.2 % of the population after screening, and in 8.5 % of the population without screening. QALYs increased from 16.37 (no screening strategy) to 16.40 (screening strategy), an increment of 0.03 (95 % CI 0.01;0.05) QALYs. Total expected costs were € 8016 in the screening strategy, and € 9087 in the none screening strategy (expected saving of € 1071 (95 % CI − 3146;-87) per person).

Conclusion

Annual hypertension screening and treatment in women with a history of preeclampsia may save costs, for at least a similar quality of life and survival due to prevented CVD compared with standard care.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12471-015-0760-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimated 10-year cardiovascular mortality seriously underestimates overall cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVE

The European Society of Cardiology's prevention guideline suggests that the risk of total (fatal plus non-fatal) cardiovascular disease (CVD) may be calculated from the risk of CVD mortality using a fixed multiplier (3×). However, the proposed multiplier has not been validated. We investigated the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

CVD mortality and total CVD (fatal plus non-fatal CVD requiring hospitalisation) were analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimates among 24 014 men and women aged 39-79 years without baseline CVD or diabetes mellitus in the prospective population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort. CVD outcomes included death and hospitalisations for ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease or aortic aneurysm. The main study outcome was the ratio of 10-year total CVD to 10-year CVD mortality stratified by age and sex.

RESULTS

Ten year CVD mortality was 3.9% (900 CVD deaths, 95% CI 3.6% to 4.1%); the rate of total CVD outcomes was 21.2% (4978 fatal or non-fatal CVD outcomes, 95% CI 20.7% to 21.8%). The overall ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 5.4. However, we found major differences in this ratio when stratified by gender and age. In young women (39-50 years), the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 28.5, in young men (39-50 years) 11.7. In the oldest age group, these ratios were considerably lower (3.2 in women and 2.4 in men aged 75-79 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between 10-year total CVD and CVD mortality is dependent on age and sex, and cannot be estimated using a fixed multiplier. Using CVD mortality to estimate total CVD risk leads to serious underestimation of risk, particularly in younger age groups, and particularly in women.

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study

BACKGROUND

Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.

METHODS

Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.

RESULTS

The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002) and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001). The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001) and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113). The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms

OBJECTIVES

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm.

METHODS

Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated.

RESULTS

Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA.