Effect of time to complete remission on subsequent survival and disease-free survival time in AML, RAEB-t, and RAEB

Bayesian phase II adaptive randomization by jointly modeling efficacy and toxicity as time-to-event outcomes

The main goals of Phase II trials are to identify the therapeutic efficacy of new treatments and continue monitoring all the possible adverse effects. In Phase II trials, it is important to develop an adaptive randomization (AR) procedure that takes into account both the efficacy and toxicity. In most existing articles, toxicity is modeled as a binary endpoint through an unobservable random effect (frailty) to link the efficacy and toxicity. However, this approach does not capture toxicity profiles that evolve over time. In this article, we propose a new Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) procedure using the covariate-adjusted efficacy-toxicity ratio (ETR) index, where efficacy and toxicity are jointly modelled as time-to-event (TTE) outcomes. Furthermore, we also propose early stopping rules for toxicity and futility such that inferior treatments can be dropped at earlier time of trial. Simulation results show that compared to the BAR procedures based solely on the efficacy and that based on TTE efficacy and binary toxicity outcomes, the proposed BAR procedure can better identify the difference in treatment toxicity such that it can assign more patients to the superior treatment arm under some scenarios.

Association of leukocyte nadir with complete remission in Indonesian acute myeloid leukemia patients undergoing 7+3 remission induction chemotherapy

Background: The 7+3 regimen is still the main choice of remission induction chemotherapy in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Successfully achieving complete remission (CR) and the time required to achieve it determine patient’s survival. Hence, bone marrow examination on 14 ^th day of chemotherapy is recommended to predict CR. However, the examination is invasive and still inaccurate.

Methods: A prognostic study with retrospective cohort design was conducted at two central hospitals in Indonesia based on medical record data of AML patients who underwent 7+3 induction chemotherapy from January 1st, 2015, to December 31st, 2019. The association of nadir leukocyte level and the time required to achieve it with CR occurrence was assessed.

Results: One hundred and one subjects were recruited with median age 39 years and 55% men. A total of 55.4% subjects achieved CR. Nadir leukocyte level below 200/mcl was the most optimal cut-off point and independently associated with CR (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.03–5.97) while time required to achieve it was not.

Conclusions: The nadir leukocyte level is associated with an increase probability of CR but not for the time required to achieve it in AML patients undergoing 7+3 induction chemotherapy.

Impact of depth of clinical response on outcomes of acute myeloid leukemia patients in first complete remission who undergo allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients often undergo allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) in first complete remission (CR). We examined the effect of depth of clinical response, including incomplete count recovery (CRi) and/or measurable residual disease (MRD), in patients from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplantation Research (CIBMTR) registry. We identified 2492 adult patients (1799 CR and 693 CRi) who underwent alloHCT between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Multivariable analysis was performed to adjust for patient-, disease-, and transplant-related factors. Baseline characteristics were similar. Patients in CRi compared to those in CR had an increased likelihood of death (HR: 1.27; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.43). Compared to CR, CRi was significantly associated with increased non-relapse mortality (NRM), shorter disease-free survival (DFS), and a trend toward increased relapse. Detectable MRD was associated with shorter OS, shorter DFS, higher NRM, and increased relapse compared to absence of MRD. The deleterious effects of CRi and MRD were independent. In this large CIBMTR cohort, survival outcomes differ among AML patients based on depth of CR and presence of MRD at the time of alloHCT. Further studies should focus on optimizing post-alloHCT outcomes for patients with responses less than CR.

The complete story of less than complete responses: The evolution and application of acute myeloid leukemia clinical responses

Complete remission (CR) has long been the critical therapeutic response in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, "less than CR" responses have been and continue to be proposed to define clinically meaningful post-therapy outcomes. These responses include CR with incomplete recovery (CRi), CR with incomplete platelet recovery (CRp) and, most recently, CR with partial hematologic recovery (CRh), which has been introduced and subsequently used for regulatory approval. However, the clinical benefits associated with "less than CR" responses have primarily been evaluated in the context of intensive therapies. In an era with sophisticated measurable residual disease (MRD) assessments, including flow-based, cytogenetic and molecular techniques, and an increase in "targeted", non-intensive therapies, the clinical value of responses that are "less than CR" must be reevaluated. Improvements in the rate of CR has not always led to improvements in OS among older patients. As such, MRD techniques might help define a more stringent response criterion (MRD-negative CR) that might better correlate with OS and should be incorporated in future clinical trials. Here we discuss the evolution of CR and "less than CR" responses, data regarding their clinical benefits, and considerations relevant to response assessments with newer therapies.

The impact of response kinetics for multiple myeloma in the era of novel agents

Rapid remission by induction therapy has long been recognized as an important predictor for long-time survival in acute leukemia. However, the impact of response kinetics on multiple myeloma (MM) seems to be different and remains unexplored. The relationship between response kinetics and outcome were assessed in 626 patients with newly diagnosed MM who were included in a prospective, nonrandomized clinical trial (BDH 2008/02). Patients were assigned to either immunomodulatory drug- or proteasome inhibitor-based therapy. The response depth, time to best response (T_BR) and duration of best response (D_BR) were collected. Depth of response was associated with superior outcomes, consistent with findings from other studies. However, the early responders (defined as T_BR ≤3 months) showed significantly worse survival compared with late responders. We found that patients with rapid complete remission experienced inferior survivals comparable to those attaining a gradual partial remission. Moreover, 4 distinct response kinetics patterns were identified. Patients with gradual and sustained remission ("U-valley" pattern) experienced superior outcomes, whereas poor outcomes were observed in rapid and transient responders ("roller coaster" pattern) (median overall survival, 126 vs 30 months). The effects of response patterns on survival were confirmed in patients at different stages of disease and cytogenetic risk, including transplant-eligible patients and those attaining different extents of response depth. Collectively, our data indicated that slow and gradual response is a favorable prognostic factor in MM. In addition to response depth, the kinetic pattern of response is a simple and powerful predictor for survival even in the era of novel agents.

Impact of preleukemic mutations and their persistence on hematologic recovery after induction chemotherapy for AML

DNMT3A R882, TET2, ASXL1, and SRSF2 mutations identified at the time of diagnosis are associated with delayed count recovery. Persistence of preleukemic mutations in remission at high variant allele frequency is associated with delayed count recovery.

Impact of Time Between Induction Chemotherapy and Complete Remission on Survival Outcomes in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia

BACKGROUND

The majority of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) receive intensive induction chemotherapy for obtaining a complete remission (CR). Despite consolidation chemotherapy and advances in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, most of these patients finally relapse and die from AML. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of duration of remission achievement on survival of patients with newly diagnosed AML who achieve CR after induction chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients with AML who received first induction chemotherapy between 2001 and 2018.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival for patients who had early remission after induction chemotherapy and patients who had delayed remission after induction chemotherapy were 83% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.87) and 35% (95% CI, 0.31-0.39), respectively (P < .001). The 5-year disease-free survival for patients who had early remission after induction chemotherapy and patients who had delayed remission after induction chemotherapy were 81% (95% CI, 0.75-0.87) and 28% (95% CI, 0.21-0.35), respectively (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, time to entering CR is a predictor factor of overall survival and disease-free survival for patients with newly diagnosed AML who achieve CR after first induction chemotherapy. Patients achieving CR only after a lengthy time (eg, more than 29 days) should be considered to have high relapse rate and should undergo allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Clinical value of the quantitation of average daily platelet increase during the recovery period in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

The time to platelet recovery (TPR) is becoming a predicting factor during the treatment of childhood acute leukaemia. However, the initial pre-treatment platelet count (PPC) could interfere with TPR. Here, we integrated both TPR and PPC as the average daily platelet amount increase (Ap) to predict the prognosis in childhood B-ALL during the recovery period.148 patients were enrolled. The relationship between the Ap and MRD was evaluated, and Multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate whether Ap was independently associated with a better EFS. The PPC was inversely correlated with TPR (rs = -0.519, P = 0.021). Patients in Ap >3.9 × 10⁹/L group had better EFS (x² = 3.109, P = 0.028) than TPR ≤ 16d. Multivariate analysis indicated that Ap > 3.9 × 10⁹/L was independently associated with a longer EFS (RR = 3.468; 95%CI: 1.037-11.597, P = 0.043). However, when introducing both MRD and Ap > 3.9 × 10⁹/L as candidate variables, the Ap > 3.9 × 10⁹/L lost its independent effect (P = 0.081). The strong association between MRD on treatment day 33 and Ap > 3.9 × 10⁹/L (x² = 148.00, P = 0.000) was responsible for this phenomenon. Ap could be a valuable prognostic indicator in childhood B-ALL.

Predictive and Prognostic Markers in Adults With Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A Single-Institution Experience

BACKGROUND

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous malignancy with diverse genetic abnormalities, clinical presentations, and outcomes. Known predictive and prognostic factors in AML include age, performance status, comorbidities, cytogenetics, and molecular mutations. Identifying prognostic and predictive factors can inform the choice of induction therapy and outcomes prediction.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective review was performed of 137 adult AML patients from 2010 to 2015. Predictors of complete remission (CR) and overall survival (OS) were determined for patients treated with 3+7 (3 days of anthracycline and 7 days of cytarabine) or hypomethylating agent. Variables associated with CR or OS were assessed using univariate Cox regression and a multivariate Cox model.

RESULTS

The average age was 65 years and 91 patients (66%), sample size is 137 patients had primary AML. Patients in the 3+7 induction group were younger, had a higher bone marrow blast percentage, and more de novo AML compared with those in the hypomethylating agent group (P < .001, P < .001, P = .005, respectively). Univariate logistic regression for CR showed a significant association between age (P < .001), choice of induction (P < .001), and monosomy (P = .015), although only induction with 3+7 (P < .001) and absence of monosomy (P = .042) remained significant in multivariate analysis. Univariate Cox regression indicated that age (P = .003), AML status (de novo or secondary; P = .0277), choice of induction (P = .030), and monosomy (P = .010) had a significant association with OS. Only younger age (P = .018) and absence of monosomy (P = .022) were predictive of OS in multivariate Cox analysis.

CONCLUSION

Positive predictors of CR in adult AML include absence of monosomy and induction treatment with 3+7; whereas positive predictors of OS are younger age and absence of monosomy.

CD8+T cells expressing both PD-1 and TIGIT but not CD226 are dysfunctional in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is one of the most common types of leukemia among adults with an overall poor prognosis and very limited treatment management. Immune checkpoint blockade of PD-1 alone or combined with other immune checkpoint blockade has gained impressive results in murine AML models by improving anti-leukemia CD8⁺T cell function, which has greatly promoted the strategy to utilize combined immune checkpoint inhibitors to treat AML patients. However, the expression profiles of these immune checkpoint receptors, such as co-inhibitory receptors PD-1 and TIGIT and co-stimulatory receptor CD226, in T cells from AML patients have not been clearly defined. Here we have defined subsets of CD8⁺ and CD4⁺ T cells in the peripheral blood (PB) from newly diagnosed AML patients and healthy controls (HCs). We have observed increased frequencies of PD-1- and TIGIT- expressing CD8⁺ T cells but decreased occurrence of CD226-expressing CD8⁺T cells in AML patients. Further analysis of these CD8⁺ T cells revealed a unique CD8⁺ T cell subset that expressed PD-1 and TIGIT but displayed lower levels of CD226 was associated with failure to achieve remission after induction chemotherapy and FLT3-ITD mutations which predict poor clinical prognosis in AML patients. Importantly, these PD-1⁺TIGIT⁺CD226^-CD8⁺T cells are dysfunctional with lower expression of intracellular IFN-γ and TNF-α than their counterparts in HCs. Therefore, our studies revealed that an increased frequency of a unique CD8⁺ T cell subset, PD-1⁺TIGIT⁺CD226^-CD8⁺T cells, is associated with CD8⁺T cell dysfunction and poor clinical prognosis of AML patients, which may reveal critical diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers and direct more efficient therapeutic strategies.

The Heme Oxygenase System in Hematological Malignancies

SIGNIFICANCE

Several lines of evidence suggest that hematological malignancies exhibit an altered redox balance homeostasis that can lead to the activation of various survival pathways that, in turn, lead to the progression of disease and chemoresistance. Among these pathways, the heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) pathway is likely to play a major role. HO catalyzes the enzymatic degradation of heme with the simultaneous release of carbon monoxide (CO), ferrous iron (Fe²⁺), and biliverdin. This review focuses on the role of HO-1 in various hematological malignancies and the possibility of exploiting such targets to improve the outcome of well-established chemotherapeutic regimens. Recent Advances and Critical Issues: Interestingly, the inhibition of the expression of HO-1 (e.g., with siRNA) or HO activity (with competitive inhibitors) contributes to the increased efficacy of chemotherapy and improves the outcome in animal models. Furthermore, some hematological malignancies (e.g., chronic myeloid leukemia and multiple myeloma) have served to explore the non-canonical functions of HO-1, such as the association between nuclear compartmentalization and genetic instability and/or chemoresistance.

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

The HO system may serve as an important tool in the field of hematological malignancies because it can be exploited to counteract chemoresistance and to monitor the outcome of bone marrow transplants and may be an additional target for combined therapies. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 27, 363-377.

Bone marrow evaluation for diagnosis and monitoring of acute myeloid leukemia

The diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be made based on peripheral blood or bone marrow blasts. In this review, we will discuss the role of bone marrow evaluation and peripheral blood monitoring in the diagnosis, management, and follow up of AML patients. For patients with circulating blasts, it is reasonable to perform the necessary studies needed for diagnosis and risk stratification, including multiparametric flow cytometry, cytogenetics, and molecular analysis, on a peripheral blood specimen. The day 14 marrow is used to document hypocellularity in response to induction chemotherapy, but it is unclear if that assessment is necessary as it often does not affect immediate management. Currently, response assessments performed at count recovery for evaluation of remission and measurable residual disease rely on bone marrow sampling. For monitoring of relapse, peripheral blood evaluation may be adequate, but the sensitivity of bone marrow testing is in some cases superior. While bone marrow evaluation can certainly be avoided in particular situations, this cumbersome and uncomfortable procedure currently remains the de facto standard for response assessment.

Acute myeloid leukemia: 2016 Update on risk-stratification and management

Evidence suggest that even patients aged 70 or above benefit from specific AML therapy. The fundamental decision in AML then becomes whether to recommend standard or investigational treatment. This decision must rest on the likely outcome of standard treatment. Hence we review factors that predict treatment related mortality and resistance to therapy, the latter the principal cause of failure even in patients aged 70 or above. We emphasize the limitations of prediction of resistance based only on pre- treatment factors and stress the need to incorporate post-treatment factors, for example indicators of minimal residual disease. We review various newer therapeutic options and considerations that underlie the decision to recommend allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant. Am. J. Hematol. 91:825-846, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Should acute myeloid leukemia patients with actionable targets be offered investigational treatment after failing one cycle of standard induction therapy?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Therapeutic failure in acute myeloid leukemia remains common. It may be advantageous to identify patients with suboptimal treatment responses early as they may benefit from timely care strategy changes. Here, responses portending failure of standard induction therapy are reviewed and therapeutic options examined, including use of investigational, targeted agents for suitable patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

Patients entering complete remission without minimal residual disease early, that is, with one cycle of standard induction chemotherapy, have a lower relapse risk and live longer than other similarly-treated patients, supporting the proposition of early complete remission without minimal residual disease as a criterion for induction therapy success. Investigational small molecule drugs are appealing for patients who fail standard therapies, but complete remission rates as a single agent are typically modest.

SUMMARY

The relative value of different treatment strategies if a first standard induction therapy cycle fails to produce complete remission is unknown. However, retreatment with the same therapy often leads to complete remission and provides a benchmark against which other approaches should be compared. Addition of investigational small molecule drugs to standard reinduction therapy in patients with actionable targets could offer an attractive therapeutic strategy in this situation that might improve outcomes and facilitate clinical drug testing.

Idarubicin, cytarabine, and pravastatin as induction therapy for untreated acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome

Previous studies suggest that idarubicin/cytarabine(ara-C)/pravastatin (IAP) is an active salvage regimen for patients with AML. We therefore investigated this regimen in patients with newly-diagnosed AML or MDS (≥10% blasts). Patients were eligible if the anticipated treatment-related mortality (TRM) was <10%. Patients received pravastatin (1,280 mg/day po; days 1-8), cytarabine (1.5 g/m(2) /day; days 4-7), and idarubicin (12 mg/m(2) /day, days 4-6). Up to 3 cycles of consolidation with a shortened course was permitted. The primary endpoints were "good CR" rate (CR on day 35 without minimal residual disease) and TRM in the first 28 days. The study was to stop if after each cohort of 5 patients (a) the Bayesian posterior probability was < 5% that the true "good CR rate" was ≥ 70% or (b) the posterior probability was >25% that the TRM rate was ≥5%. Twenty-four patients were included. Conventional CR was achieved in 15 (63%) patients but only 12 (50%) achieved "good CR". 4 of 12 (33%) patients with "good CR" relapsed at median of 16 weeks (10.5-19). Five (21%) patients had refractory disease. Survival probability at 1 year was 72% (48.7-64). Two (8.3%) patients died within 28 days from multiorgan failure. The most common grade 3-4 adverse effects were febrile neutropenia (75%) and diarrhea (25%). Based on the stopping rules accrual ceased after entry of these 24 patients. IAP did not meet the predefined efficacy criteria for success. Therefore, we would not recommend this regimen for phase three testing in this patient subset.

Acute myeloid leukemia: 2014 update on risk-stratification and management

OVERVIEW

Evidence suggests that even patients aged 70 or above benefit from specific AML therapy. The fundamental decision in AML then becomes whether to recommend standard or investigational treatment. This decision must rest on the likely outcome of standard treatment. Hence we review factors that predict treatment related mortality and resistance to therapy, the latter the principal cause of failure even in patients aged 70 or above. We emphasize the limitations of prediction of resistance based only on pre-treatment factors and stress the need to incorporate post-treatment factors, for example indicators of minimal residual disease. We review various newer therapeutic options and considerations that underlie the decision to recommend allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant.

Impact of early remission by induction therapy on allogeneic stem cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia with an intermediate-risk karyotype in first complete remission

For patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) early achievement of remission during induction treatment is an important predictor for long-term outcome irrespective of the type of consolidation therapy employed. Here, we retrospectively examined the prognostic impact of early remission (ER) vs. delayed remission (DR) in a cohort of 132 AML patients with an intermediate-risk karyotype undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT) in first complete remission (CR1). In contrast to patients showing DR, patients achieving ER had a significantly higher 3-yr overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of 76% vs. 54% (P = 0.03) and 76% vs. 53% (P = 0.03). Likewise, 3 yr after alloSCT the cumulative incidence of relapse (CI-R) was significantly lower in the ER subgroup as compared to patients achieving DR, that is, 10% vs. 35% (P = 0.004), whereas non-relapse mortality (NRM) did not differ significantly. Multivariate analysis identified DR as an independent prognosticator for an inferior DFS (HR 3.37, P = 0.002) and a higher CI-R (HR 3.55, P = 0.002). Taken together, these data may indicate that the rapid achievement of remission predicts a favorable outcome in patients with intermediate-risk AML undergoing alloSCT in CR1. In turn, the adverse effect of DR may not be fully overcome by alloSCT.

Long-term medical costs and life expectancy of acute myeloid leukemia: a probabilistic decision model

BACKGROUND

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be diagnosed at any age and treatment, which can be given with supportive and/or curative intent, is considered expensive compared with that for other cancers. Despite this, no long-term predictive models have been developed for AML, mainly because of the complexities associated with this disease.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the current study was to develop a model (based on a UK cohort) to predict cost and life expectancy at a population level.

METHODS

The model developed in this study combined a decision tree with several Markov models to reflect the complexity of the prognostic factors and treatments of AML. The model was simulated with a cycle length of 1 month for a time period of 5 years and further simulated until age 100 years or death. Results were compared for two age groups and five different initial treatment intents and responses. Transition probabilities, life expectancies, and costs were derived from a UK population-based specialist registry-the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org).

RESULTS

Overall, expected 5-year medical costs and life expectancy ranged from £8,170 to £81,636 and 3.03 to 34.74 months, respectively. The economic and health outcomes varied with initial treatment intent, age at diagnosis, trial participation, and study time horizon. The model was validated by using face, internal, and external validation methods. The results show that the model captured more than 90% of the empirical costs, and it demonstrated good fit with the empirical overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Costs and life expectancy of AML varied with patient characteristics and initial treatment intent. The robust AML model developed in this study could be used to evaluate new diagnostic tools/treatments, as well as enable policy makers to make informed decisions.

Acute myeloid leukemia with normal cytogenetics

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is proving to be a heterogeneous disease process that is driven by various genetic mutations and aberrant protein expression. As our population ages, the incidence of AML is likely to increase, with approximately a third of adult cases categorized with normal cytogenetics. Advances in technology are now allowing us to explore the genetic expression and protein transcription patterns of AML, providing more information that must find its place in the prognosis and the therapeutic algorithm of this disease. As we learn more, we hope to further categorize patients with normal karyotype AML into discrete risk categories that will help in treatment decision making and further elucidate the necessity for hematopoietic cell transplantation. However, at this time, many of the identified mutations and expression patterns are still experimental, requiring further analysis to determine their exact role in AML.

Re-induction therapy decisions based on day 14 bone marrow biopsy in acute myeloid leukemia

PURPOSE

The decision to re-induce patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) based on results of the day 14 bone marrow (BM) biopsy is variable and lacks evidence based data. The aim of our review was to evaluate the accuracy of a day 14 BM biopsy in determining the need for re-induction chemotherapy.

METHODS

Seventy-four patients with newly diagnosed de novo AML treated with induction chemotherapy were retrospectively reviewed for the purpose of evaluating treatment decisions and outcomes based on their day 14 BM biopsy. Response to therapy in this analysis was based on morphology alone.

RESULTS

Of the 74 patients undergoing standard induction, 45 patients (61%) had no evidence of leukemia on their day 14 BM biopsy. Eighteen patients (24%) had definitive residual disease (RD), and 11 patient's (15%) were classified as indeterminate response (IR). Fifteen patients with RD and one with IR underwent re-induction chemotherapy. However, thirteen patients (3 RD and 10 IR) were observed until count recovery without any re-induction therapy. Eleven of these 13 patients who were observed eventually attained a morphologic complete remission (CR), including two patients with RD.

CONCLUSIONS

A day 14 BM biopsy may have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of residual leukemia. Some patients with an IR on day 14 may not require re-induction chemotherapy, but instead, may benefit from careful observation until count recovery to avoid the mortality and morbidity associated with re-induction chemotherapy.

Evaluating Joint Effects of Induction-Salvage Treatment Regimes on Overall Survival in Acute Leukemia

Typical oncology practice often includes not only an initial, frontline treatment, but also subsequent treatments given if the initial treatment fails. The physician chooses a treatment at each stage based on the patient's baseline covariates and history of previous treatments and outcomes. Such sequentially adaptive medical decision-making processes are known as dynamic treatment regimes, treatment policies, or multi-stage adaptive treatment strategies. Conventional analyses in terms of frontline treatments that ignore subsequent treatments may be misleading, because they actually are an evaluation of more than front-line treatment effects on outcome. We are motivated by data from a randomized trial of four combination chemotherapies given as frontline treatments to patients with acute leukemia. Most patients in the trial also received a second-line treatment, chosen adaptively and subjectively rather than by randomization, either because the initial treatment was ineffective or the patient's cancer later recurred. We evaluate effects on overall survival time of the 16 two-stage strategies that actually were used. Our methods include a likelihood-based regression approach in which the transition times of all possible multi-stage outcome paths are modeled, and estimating equations with inverse probability of treatment weighting to correct for bias. While the two approaches give different numerical estimates of mean survival time, they lead to the same substantive conclusions when comparing the two-stage regimes.

Phase 1 study of epigenetic priming with decitabine prior to standard induction chemotherapy for patients with AML

We conducted an open-label phase 1 study exploring the feasibility, safety, and biologic activity of epigenetic priming with decitabine before standard induction chemotherapy in patients with less-than-favorable risk of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). We directly compared the clinical and DNA-hypomethylating activity of decitabine delivered at 20 mg/m² by either a 1-hour infusion (Arm A) or a continuous infusion (Arm B) for 3, 5, or 7 days before a single, standard induction with infusional cytarabine (100 mg/m² for 7 days) and daunorubicin (60 mg/m² × 3 doses). Toxicity was similar to that of standard induction chemotherapy alone. Although we did not identify a maximum tolerated dose, there was more gastro-intestinal toxicity with 7 days of decitabine priming. Decitabine induced DNA hypomethylation at all dose levels and there was a trend toward greater hypomethylation in CD34(+) bone marrow cells when decitabine was delivered by a short pulse (Arm A). Twenty-seven subjects (90%) responded to therapy: 17 with complete remission (57%) and 10 with partial remission (33%). Of the patients with partial remission to protocol treatment, 8 achieved remission to their next therapy, bringing the overall complete remission rate to 83%. We conclude that epigenetic priming of intensive chemotherapy can be safely delivered in an attempt to improve response rates. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00538876.

Adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia who achieve complete remission after 1 or 2 cycles of induction have a similar prognosis: a report on 1980 patients registered to 6 studies conducted by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group

BACKGROUND

Patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) often have residual leukemia in the bone marrow 10 to 14 days after the start of induction therapy. Some cooperative groups administer a second cycle of similar induction therapy on Day 14 if there is residual leukemia. It is a common perception that the presence of residual leukemia at that point predicts a worse prognosis irrespective of the therapy received. The objective of this study was to determine whether patients who required a second cycle of induction (given on or about Day 14) to achieve complete remission (CR) had a worse prognosis than patients who achieved CR after only 1 cycle, because a worse prognosis may alter postremission therapy.

METHODS

Patients who were enrolled on 6 consecutive studies for AML that were conducted by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) between 1983 to 1993 received induction therapy. If residual leukemia was present in the bone marrow on the Day 14 after the start of induction, then patients were to receive a second cycle of identical induction therapy. All patients who achieved CR after 1 or 2 cycles received the identical postremission therapy.

RESULTS

In each of the 6 ECOG studies, the long-term outcome was similar for patients who required 1 or 2 cycles of induction therapy to achieve CR, and their outcome was independent of other prognostic variables, such as age or karyotype.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of residual leukemia in bone marrow 10 to 14 days after induction therapy did not predict a worse prognosis if patients received second, similar cycle of induction therapy and achieved CR.

Biomarkers and surrogate end points--the challenge of statistical validation

Biomarkers and surrogate end points have great potential for use in clinical oncology, but their statistical validation presents major challenges, and few biomarkers have been robustly confirmed. Provisional supportive data for prognostic biomarkers, which predict the likely outcome independently of treatment, is possible through small retrospective studies, but it has proved more difficult to achieve robust multi-site validation. Predictive biomarkers, which predict the likely response of patients to specific treatments, require more extensive data for validation, specifically large randomized clinical trials and meta-analysis. Surrogate end points are even more challenging to validate, and require data demonstrating both that the surrogate is prognostic for the true end point independently of treatment, and that the effect of treatment on the surrogate reliably predicts its effect on the true end point. In this Review, we discuss the nature of prognostic and predictive biomarkers and surrogate end points, and examine the statistical techniques and designs required for their validation. In cases where the statistical requirements for validation cannot be rigorously achieved, the biological plausibility of an end point or surrogate might support its adoption. No consensus yet exists on processes or standards for pragmatic evaluation and adoption of biomarkers and surrogate end points in the absence of robust statistical validation.

Effect of complete remission and responses less than complete remission on survival in acute myeloid leukemia: a combined Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, Southwest Oncology Group, and M. D. Anderson Cancer Center Study

PURPOSE

It is known that complete remission (CR) prolongs survival in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In 2003, less stringent response categories were introduced, most notably CR with incomplete platelet recovery (CRp). Although the significance of CRp for survival remains unclear, reports of AML trials frequently combine CR with CRp rather than considering CR as a separate entity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This practice led us to retrospectively examine the effect of CR on outcome in newly diagnosed AML, by using data from 6,283 patients treated on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) and Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) protocols or at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. This effect was then contrasted with the effect of CRp in the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center cohort.

RESULTS

At least 94% of patients receiving cytarabine-based therapy and surviving for more than 3 or 5 years achieved a CR with either initial or salvage therapy; limited data suggest the same for patients receiving initial therapies that did not contain cytarabine. Patients with CR were more likely to live beyond 3 or 5 years than patients with CRp. The likelihood of achieving a CR rather than CRp was greater for patients with AML who had better prognosis. After adjustment for covariates, the relapse-free survival of patients achieving CR was longer than that of patients achieving CRp, whereas patients with CRp survived longer than those with resistant disease.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that CR is of unique clinical significance and should be reported as separate response in trials of newly diagnosed AML. Nonetheless, our findings validate CRp as a clinically meaningful response.

Blood counts at time of complete remission provide additional independent prognostic information in acute myeloid leukemia

Prognostic relevance of blood counts at complete remission (CR) in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is not clear. To address this issue, we analyzed 891 AML patients in first CR. From the data of randomly selected 446 patients (training set), we first established optimal cutoffs for neutrophil and platelet counts and hemoglobin level at CR in terms of relapse-free survival (RFS). Patients whose counts were higher than each optimal cutoff were shown to have significantly better RFS (p<0.01 for neutrophil and platelets, and p=0.02 for hemoglobin). Then we tested whether these cutoffs were, after accounting for better known prognostic covariates, also predictive of RFS in the remaining 445 patients (validation set). Our data revealed that higher neutrophil count was independently predictive of longer RFS in the validation set (hazard ratio 1.38, p=0.02), as was higher platelet count (hazard ratio 1.35, p=0.04). These findings suggest that blood counts at CR, information readily available, are useful in prognostication in AML.

Early peripheral blood blast clearance during induction chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia predicts superior relapse-free survival

In childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), a rapid decline of circulating leukemic blasts in response to induction chemotherapy or prednisone is one of the most important prognostic factors, not only for achieving remission but also for relapse-free survival (RFS). However, in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) parameters of chemosensitivity have been restricted mainly to the rapidity of achievement of complete remission (CR) or the assessment of residual leukemic bone marrow blasts during aplasia. We hypothesized that the time to circulating peripheral blood blast clearance, as a potential surrogate for in vivo chemosensitivity, would have prognostic relevance in AML also. In a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 86 adult patients with AML receiving uniform induction and consolidation chemotherapy, we demonstrate that the time to clearance of circulating blasts during induction chemotherapy is an independent prognostic marker of RFS, superseding other known or established risk factors, including karyotype and number of inductions to achieve CR.

Overexpression of CXCR4 predicts adverse overall and event-free survival in patients with unmutated FLT3 acute myeloid leukemia with normal karyotype

BACKGROUND

CXC chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4) expression in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is reported to correlate with FLT3 gene mutation and poorer prognosis. The prognostic significance of CXCR4 expression in patients with AML that have a normal karyotype and no evidence of FLT3 gene mutations was examined.

METHODS

The prognostic significance of CXCR4 expression in 122 AML patients with normal karyotype and no evidence of FLT3 gene mutation treated at our institution between 1997 and 2003 was analyzed. All patients received intensive chemotherapy according to institutional protocols; 84% received cytarabine-containing regimens. Bone marrow biopsy or clot specimens obtained before treatment were immunostained for CXCR4.

RESULTS

There were 70 men and 52 women with a median age of 62 years (range, 22-82 years). Median follow-up was 18 months (range, <1-97 months). Seventy-six patients achieved complete remission (CR); 39 had recurrence. Sixty-six patients died, including 9 with no evidence of disease. CXCR4 was positive in 70 and negative in 52 patients, with CR rates of 58% and 71%, respectively (P = .09). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that CXCR4 expression, presence of multilineage dysplasia, and high creatinine level predicted poorer overall (OS) and event-free (EFS) survival. CONCLUSIONS.: The results suggest that CXCR4 expression is associated with poor prognosis in AML patients with an unmutated FLT3 gene.

Acute myeloid leukaemia

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a heterogeneous clonal disorder of haemopoietic progenitor cells and the most common malignant myeloid disorder in adults. The median age at presentation for patients with AML is 70 years. In the past few years, research in molecular biology has been instrumental in deciphering the pathogenesis of the disease. Genetic defects are thought to be the most important factors in determining the response to chemotherapy and outcome. Whereas significant progress has been made in the treatment of younger adults, the prospects for elderly patients have remained dismal, with median survival times of only a few months. This difference is related to comorbidities associated with ageing and to disease biology. Current efforts in clinical research focus on the assessment of targeted therapies. Such new approaches will probably lead to an increase in the cure rate.

CXCR4 is a prognostic marker in acute myelogenous leukemia

CXCR4 chemokine receptors retain hematopoietic progenitors and leukemia cells within the marrow microenvironment. We prospectively evaluated the prognostic implication of CXCR4 in 90 consecutive patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) by flow cytometry. Patients were divided into groups with low (n=32), intermediate (n=26), or high (n=32) CXCR4 expression, as defined by CXCR4 mean fluorescence intensity ratio thresholds of less than 5, 5 to 10, or more than 10, respectively. We found that low CXCR4 expression on AML cells correlated with a better prognosis, resulting in a longer relapse-free and overall survival of 24.3+/-2.9 months for low CXCR4-expressing patients, compared with 17.4+/-3.4 months for intermediate and 12.8+/-2 months (mean+/-SEM) for patients with high expression. In univariate analyses, CXCR4 expression, cytogenetics, white blood cell count, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) predicted for shorter survival. Multivariate analysis revealed CXCR4 expression and unfavorable cytogenetics as independent prognostic factors. We conclude that CXCR4 expression in AML is an independent prognostic predictor for disease relapse and survival that can rapidly and easily be determined at disease presentation. These findings warrant further investigation into the role of CXCR4 in AML and suggest that CXCR4 should be incorporated into the risk assessment of AML patients.

Autotransplantation versus HLA-matched unrelated donor transplantation for acute myeloid leukaemia: a retrospective analysis from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research

Most acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients lack human leucocyte antigen-identical sibling donors for transplantation. Autotransplants and unrelated donor (URD) transplants are therapeutic options. To compare autologous versus URD transplantation for AML in first (CR1) or second complete remission (CR2), we studied the outcomes of 668 autotransplants were compared with 476 URD transplants reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. Proportional hazards regression adjusted for differences in prognostic variables. In multivariate analyses transplant-related mortality (TRM) was significantly higher and relapse lower with URD transplantation. Adjusted 3-year survival probabilities were: in CR1 57 (53-61)% with autotransplants and 44 (37-51)% URD (P = 0.002), in CR2 46 (39-53)% and 33 (28-38)% respectively (P = 0.006). Adjusted 3-year leukaemia-free survival (LFS) probabilities were: CR1 53 (48-57)% with autotransplants and 43 (36-50)% with URD (P = 0.021), CR2 39 (32-46)% and 33 (27-38)% respectively (P = 0.169). Both autologous and URD transplantation produced prolonged LFS. High TRM offsets the superior antileukaemia effect of URD transplantation. This retrospective, observational database study showed that autotransplantation, in general, offered higher 3-year survival for AML patients in CR1 and CR2. Cytogenetics, however, were known in only two-thirds of patients and treatment bias cannot be eliminated.

Treatment strategies and long-term results in paediatric patients treated in four consecutive AML-BFM trials

A total of 1111 children with acute myeloblastic leukaemia (AML) were treated in four consecutive Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster (BFM) studies from 1978 to 1998. The first cooperative trial AML-BFM 78 established intensive chemotherapy with seven drugs, CNS irradiation and 2-year maintenance, achieving a long-term survival (overall survival (OS)) of 40%. Induction intensification in AML-BFM 83 resulted in significant improvement of disease-free survival (DFS). The risk of haemorrhage, especially in children with hyperleukocytosis, proved the high relevance of supportive care. In AML-BFM 87, the benefit of CNS irradiation in preventing CNS/systemic relapses was demonstrated. In AML-BFM 93, the introduction of idarubicin during first induction followed by intensification with HAM increased the 5-year EFS, DFS and OS to 50+/-2, 61+/-3 and 57+/-2%, respectively. Stem cell transplantation (SCT), as applied in high-risk patients with a matched related donor, did not significantly improve the outcome compared to chemotherapy alone. In spite of treatment intensification, the therapy-related death rate decreased from trial to trial, mainly during induction. The future aim is to reduce long-term sequelae, especially cardiotoxicity, by administration of less cardiotoxic drugs, and toxicity of SCT by risk-adapted indications. The AML-BFM studies performed in three European countries with >70 cooperating centres have significantly improved the outcome in AML children; nevertheless, increasing experience with these intensive treatment regimens is of fundamental importance to reduce fatal complications.

Evaluation of complete disease remission in acute myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND

Different diagnostic methods add information to define complete remission (CR) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) for predicting prognosis and for therapeutic planning still are under discussion.

METHODS

The authors studied 216 patients with AML at the time of initial diagnosis and during follow-up and correlated cytomorphology, interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), and flow cytometry results to evaluate response status. They further tested the prognostic impact of those results, especially in patients who achieved a morphologic CR.

RESULTS

Interphase FISH was found to be correlated significantly with the clinical course at the time of complete cytomorphologic remission and was more reliable than morphology for defining CR. Furthermore, interphase FISH was correlated with immunophenotyping results at all times during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The current results indicated that interphase FISH may be used as a valid MRD parameter in patients with AML. Multiparameter immunophenotyping for MRD also was correlated strongly with the clinical course, and the authors suggest integrating such immunophenotyping into the routine diagnostic panel at the time of diagnosis and during the clinical course in patients with AML.

Monitoring of minimal residual disease in acute myeloid leukemia

Monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD) becomes increasingly important in the risk-adapted management of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The two most sensitive and quantitative methods for MRD detection are multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) and real-time polymerase chain reaction (QRT-PCR). Fusion gene-specific PCR in AML is based on the RNA level, and thus in contrast to MFC expression levels rather than cell counts are assessed. For both methods independent prognostic values have been shown. The strong power of MFC has been shown mainly in the assessment of early clearance of the malignant clone. MRD levels in AML with fusion genes have the strongest prognostic power after the end of consolidation therapy. In addition, with QRT-PCR highly predictive initial expression levels can be assessed. With both methods early detection of relapse is possible. So far, validated PCR-based MRD was done with fusion genes that are detectable in only 20-25% of all AML MFC is superior since it is applicable for most AML. However, QRT-PCR is still more sensitive in most cases. Thus, it is desirable to establish new molecular markers for PCR-based studies. Large clinical trials will determine the role and place of immunologic and PCR-based monitoring in the prognostic stratification of patients with AML.

A Geometric Approach to Comparing Treatments for Rapidly Fatal Diseases

In therapy of rapidly fatal diseases, early treatment efficacy often is characterized by an event, "response," which is observed relatively quickly. Since the risk of death decreases at the time of response, it is desirable not only to achieve a response, but to do so as rapidly as possible. We propose a Bayesian method for comparing treatments in this setting based on a competing risks model for response and death without response. Treatment effect is characterized by a two-dimensional parameter consisting of the probability of response within a specified time and the mean time to response. Several target parameter pairs are elicited from the physician so that, for a reference covariate vector, all elicited pairs embody the same improvement in treatment efficacy compared to a fixed standard. A curve is fit to the elicited pairs and used to determine a two-dimensional parameter set in which a new treatment is considered superior to the standard. Posterior probabilities of this set are used to construct rules for the treatment comparison and safety monitoring. The method is illustrated by a randomized trial comparing two cord blood transplantation methods.

Prognostic factors in acute myeloid leukemia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cytogenetics offers the most important prognostic information at both presentation and relapse. However, this classification appears to be insufficient, especially for patients presenting with standard-risk cytogenetics, whose relapse risk is variable. Other prognostic factors, stratifying this heterogeneous group of patients into more clearly defined risk groups, are warranted.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several molecular markers have been described that predict for long-term outcome in this heterogeneous group of patients; however, there is as yet no consensus as to the prognostic significance of each. Time to morphologic and molecular remission may also be important; however, further studies are warranted to establish their prognostic role in acute myeloid leukemia.

SUMMARY

Much has been learnt over the past decade and a better understanding of disease biology, determined by gene expression profiling and proteomic analyses, may help to target therapy and improve the outcome.

The therapy of relapsed acute leukaemia in adults

Although the cure of acute leukaemia has improved significantly, many patients will still relapse and die. The unraveling of the molecular pathogenesis of acute leukaemia has lead to the identification of new prognostic factors and improved the detection of minimal residual disease. The treatment of relapsed acute leukaemia with chemotherapy remains unsatisfactory. Allogeneic or autologous blood and marrow transplant (BMT) can cure a subset of patients with relapsed acute leukaemia. The identification of the graft-vs-leukaemia (GVL) effect has lead to the development of donor lymphocyte infusions to re-induce remission in patients with relapsed leukaemia after allogeneic BMT and also stimulated the development of the less toxic nonmyeloablative allogeneic transplant approach. The identification of molecular targets of therapy and the development of monoclonal antibody-directed therapy has generated optimism. It is possible that combinations of chemotherapy, molecularly directed therapy, and immunotherapy may be combined to cure an increasing proportion of patients with acute leukaemia.

Addition of cladribine to daunorubicin and cytarabine increases complete remission rate after a single course of induction treatment in acute myeloid leukemia. Multicenter, phase III study

To assess the efficacy of an original DAC-7 regimen: daunorubicine (DNR) 60 mg/m2/day, days 1-3; cytarabine (AraC) 200 mg/m2/day, days 1-7; cladribine (2-CdA) 5 mg/m2/day, days 1-5, 400 untreated adult acute myeloid leukemia patients (including 63 with preceding myelodysplastic syndrome), aged 45 (16-60) years were randomized to either DAC-7 (n=200) or DA-7 (without 2-CdA, n=200). The overall CR rate equaled 72% for DAC-7 and 69% for DA-7 arm (P=NS). After a single course of DAC-7 induction, the CR rate equaled 64% and was significantly higher compared to 47% in the DA-7 arm (P=0.0009). Median hospitalization time during the induction was 7 days shorter for DAC-7 compared to the DA-7 group (33 vs 40 days, P=0.002). Toxicity was comparable in both groups. The probability of 3-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) for DAC-7 and DA-7 group equaled 43 and 34%, respectively (P=NS). There was a trend toward higher LFS rate for patients aged >40 years receiving DAC-7 compared with DA-7 regimen (44 vs 28%, P=0.05). This study proves that addition of 2-CdA increases antileukemic potency of DNR+AraC regimen, thus resulting in a higher CR rate after one induction cycle when compared to DA-7, without additional toxicity. It shortens hospitalization time and may improve long-term survival in patients aged >40 years.

Clinical significance of residual disease during treatment in childhood acute myeloid leukaemia

In children with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), morphological and karyotypic studies cannot precisely assess response to treatment, and less than one-third of patients have genetic markers for molecular studies of residual disease. We determined the usefulness of a four-colour flow cytometric strategy developed in our laboratory to study residual disease. We first compared the immunophenotypes of AML cells obtained from 54 children at diagnosis with those of cells from 59 normal or regenerating bone marrow samples. Forty-six of the 54 AML cases (85.2%) had immunophenotypes that allowed detection of 0.1-0.01% residual leukaemic cells. Of 230 bone marrow samples obtained from those 46 patients during and off treatment, 61 (26.5%) had >/= 0.1% AML cells by flow cytometry. We found that core binding factor-associated AML had a significantly better early treatment response. Mean (+/- standard error) 2-year survival estimate was 33.1 +/- 19.1% for patients with >/= 0.1% AML cells by flow cytometry after induction therapy, but 72.1 +/- 11.5% for those with < 0.1% AML cells (P = 0.022); overt recurrence of AML within the subsequent 6 months was significantly more likely in the former group. The assay described here holds promise for guiding the choice of post-remission treatment options in children with AML.