Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

BACKGROUND

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies.

METHODS

We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies.

RESULTS

The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours.

CONCLUSION

Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a 'calculator' that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features.

Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040.

METHODS

We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040.

RESULTS

In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2-3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised.

LAY SUMMARY

The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.

Liver Diseases in South Korea: A Pulse Check of the Public's Knowledge, Awareness, and Behaviors

PURPOSE

National surveys in Korea have spotlighted suboptimal levels of awareness among the public towards liver-related health and diseases, leading to progressive reform of national policies and education efforts. This study aimed to assess the status of the Korean public's knowledge towards liver-related diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A self-reported, cross-sectional, web-based questionnaire study was conducted between February-March 2020 among 1000 Korean adults. Questionnaire items assessed the knowledge, awareness, and behaviors towards liver-related health and diseases.

RESULTS

About half (50.9%-52.1%) knew untreated/chronic viral hepatitis could lead to liver failure and/or cancer. Misconceptions pertaining to viral hepatitis transmission risks exist with only 26.3% knowing viral hepatitis B cannot be transmitted by dining with an infected individual. About one-fifth (22.2%) were aware of an available cure for viral hepatitis C. Less than half were aware of the risk factors associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), despite 72.4% and 49.5% having heard of fatty liver disease and NASH, respectively. More than one-third were unlikely to seek medical consultation even if exposed to viral hepatitis risk factors or upon diagnosis with a liver condition. Reasons for this low urgency included costs-related concerns, perceptions of being healthy, and the viewpoint that the condition is not life-threatening.

CONCLUSION

The public's knowledge towards liver-related diseases in Korea was found to be lacking, which could account for a lower sense of urgency towards screening and treatment. More efforts are needed to address misperceptions and dispel stigma in an effort to encourage pro-health seeking behaviors.

Contemporary Trends in Hospitalizations for Comorbid Chronic Liver Disease and Substance Use Disorders

INTRODUCTION

Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) and substance use disorders (SUDs) are increasingly prevalent and often coexist. Contemporary studies describing the characteristics and hospitalization trends of those with comorbid CLD-SUD are lacking. We aimed to characterize a population-based cohort with comorbid CLD-SUD and describe trends in these hospitalizations over time by individual-level characteristics.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the National Inpatient Sample from 2005 through 2017. Diagnosis codes were used to identify adult hospitalizations with CLD, SUD, or both. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to make comparisons between diagnosis categories. Unadjusted and age-adjusted trends in these hospitalizations were described over time.

RESULTS

Of 401,867,749 adult hospital discharges, 3.2% had CLD-only and 1.7% had comorbid CLD-SUD. Compared with CLD-only, comorbid CLD-SUD hospitalizations resulted in higher inpatient mortality (3.1% vs 2.4%, P < 0.001) and were associated with younger age, male sex, Native American race, and urban and Western US location. Over time, comorbid hospitalizations grew 34%, and the demographics shifted with larger increases in hospitalization rates seen in younger individuals, women, Native Americans, and those publicly insured. In comorbid hospitalizations, alcoholic SUD and CLD decreased, but drug SUDs and nonalcoholic fatty liver diseases are fast-growing contributors.

DISCUSSION

In this comprehensive analysis of US hospitalizations, comorbid CLD-SUD hospitalizations are increasing over time and lead to higher inpatient mortality than CLD alone. We further characterize the changing demographics of these hospitalizations, providing a contemporary yet inclusive look at comorbid CLD-SUD hospitalizations. These data can guide interventions needed to improve the poor outcomes suffered by this growing population.

Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States: Evolving trends over the last three decades

Hepatitis C virus infection has been the most common etiology in HCC-related liver transplantation (LT). Since 2014, direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have dramatically improved HCV cure. We aimed to study the changing pattern of etiologies and impact in outcome in HCC-related LT according to HCV treatment-era through retrospective analysis of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database (1987-2017). A total of 27 855 HCC-related liver transplants were performed (median age 59 years, 77% male). In the DAA era (2014-2017) there has been a 14.6% decrease in LT for HCV-related HCC; however, HCV remains the most common etiology in 50% of cases. In the same era, there has been a 50% increase in LT for NAFLD-related HCC. Overall survival was significantly worse for HCV-related HCC compared to NAFLD-related HCC during pre-DAA era (2002-2013; P = .031), but these differences disappeared in the DAA era. In addition, HCV patients had a significant improvement in survival when comparing the DAA era with IFN era (P < .001). Independent predictors of survival were significantly different in the pre-DAA era (HCV, AFP, diabetes) than in the DAA era (tumor size). HCV-related HCC continues to be the main indication for LT in the DAA era, but patients' survival has significantly improved and is comparable to that of NAFLD-related HCC.

Low recurrence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma following ledipasvir and sofosbuvir treatment in a real-world chronic hepatitis C patients cohort

The aims of the present study were to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) with or without ribavirin in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in patients with advanced liver disease and to analyse whether the use of LDV/SOF treatment is associated with a new occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during and after LDV/SOF treatment. The Turkish Early Access Program provided LDV/SOF treatment to a total of 200 eligible CHC patients with advanced liver disease. The median follow-up period was 22 months. All patients were Caucasian, 84% were infected with genotype 1b, and 24% had a liver transplantation before treatment. The sustained virological response (SVR12) was 86.0% with ITT analysis. SVR12 was similar among patients with Child-Pugh classes A, B and C disease and transplant recipients. From baseline to SVR12, serum ALT level and MELD score were significantly improved (P < 0.001). LDV/SOF treatment was generally well tolerated. Only one patient developed a new diagnosed HCC. Seventeen of the 35 patients, who had a history of previous HCC, developed HCC recurrence during the LDV/SOF treatment or by a median follow-up of 6 months after treatment. HCC recurrence was less commonly observed in patients who received curative treatment for HCC compared with those patients who received noncurative treatment (P = 0.007). In conclusion, LDV/SOF with or without ribavirin is an effective and tolerable treatment in CHC patients with advanced liver disease. Eradication is associated with improvements in liver function and a reduced risk of developing a new occurrence of HCC.

Short-Duration AL-335, Odalasvir, With or Without Simeprevir, in Patients With HCV GT1 or 3 Infection Without Cirrhosis

This open-label, phase IIa study assessed the safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy of direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) regimens in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Multiple 6-12-week oral regimens of 400-800 mg once daily (QD) AL-335 + 50 mg QD/every other day odalasvir ± 75-150 mg QD simeprevir were evaluated in treatment-naïve, HCV genotype (GT)1/3-infected patients without cirrhosis. Safety/pharmacokinetic parameters, HCV-RNA, and sequencing data were assessed. Treatment regimens for later study cohorts were adjusted based on emerging data. In total, 112 patients were enrolled. Three serious treatment-emergent adverse events occurred, one of which (a Mobitz type 1 second-degree atrioventricular block [Wenckebach]) was possibly related to high odalasvir exposure and resulted in premature discontinuation of study drugs. No other clinically significant safety findings were identified. GT1-infected patients receiving 3-DAA for 6-8 weeks achieved 100% sustained virologic response 12 weeks and 24 weeks after the end of treatment (sustained virologic response [SVR12/24]). GT1-infected patients receiving 2-DAA or GT3-infected patients receiving 3-DAA had SVR12/24 less than 90%, whether treated for 8 weeks or 12 weeks. Virologic failure was associated with the emergence of generally persistent NS5A and/or transient NS5B resistance-associated substitutions in most patients. Pharmacokinetic characteristics of the three drugs were also elucidated. Conclusions: In treatment-naïve subjects without cirrhosis, AL-335 + odalasvir + simeprevir for 6-8 weeks was generally safe and highly efficacious against HCV GT1. However, inadequate efficacy was observed for the 2-DAA regimen in GT1-infected subjects and the 3-DAA regimen in GT3-infected subjects.

Improvement of clinical management and outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma nowadays compared with historical cohorts

OBJECTIVES

Therapeutic approaches in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depend on tumour stage, liver function and patient comorbidities. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of tumour stage and therapeutic approach on overall survival in HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two hundred and fourteen patients with HCC diagnosed between December 2012 and May 2017 were assessed retrospectively for tumour stage [Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC)], liver function (Child-Pugh score), therapeutic approach and outcome (mean survival time). The results were compared to two historical cohorts from our centre diagnosed between 1999 and 2013 and 1988 and 1999, respectively.

RESULTS

Nowadays, HCC is diagnosed in earlier tumour stages and with better liver function compared with the historical cohorts (P<0.001). Survival times depend on both BCLC stages and liver function for all therapeutic approaches. The 1-year survival rate in the present cohort was 79.4% compared with 58.6% in the historical cohort.In terms of BCLC stages, therapeutic approaches followed HCC guidelines in 43.9% of cases.Whereas the percentage of patients receiving resection or ablation did not change between the historical and the present cohort, there was a tendency towards a decrease in transarterial chemoembolization, with a shift towards selective internal radiotherapy, accompanied by an increase in systemic therapy with sorafenib.Also, the percentage of patients receiving single instead of multiple therapies was significantly higher in the present cohort compared with the historical cohort (P=0.016). In 62/83 patients receiving single therapy (64.7%), tumour remission was maintained during the period of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

HCC is increasingly being diagnosed in earlier stages, so that single therapy is often sufficient. Besides BCLC stages, therapy in HCC must consider liver function, tumour location, local expertise and patients' comorbidities and preferences. Further research is needed to evaluate the benefit of early multimodal concepts. Therapeutic approaches in HCC remain individual decisions.

A liver health hui: hepatitis C knowledge and associated risk factors in New Zealand gang members and their families

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and B virus (HBV) infections are highly prevalent, with a high percentage of undiagnosed cases. Knowledge of HCV and its modes of transmission are essential for disease prevention and management. We studied a high-risk New Zealand gang population on viral hepatitis prevalence, their level of knowledge and the liver health risk factors in a community setting. Participants completed demographic, risk factor and knowledge questionnaires in three health meetings in New Zealand. Participants' blood samples were tested for HBV, HCV, biochemical indicators of liver disease. Liver fibrosis levels were assessed using a Fibroscan® device. We studied 52 adult Mongrel Mob members, affiliates and whānau (extended family) throughout New Zealand. We identified no HCV and two HBV cases, confirmed high-risk factor levels and poor associated knowledge, with a significant association between lack of knowledge and presence of specific risk factors. We successfully conducted a community-focused, high-risk, hard-to-reach gang population study, and found a link between lack of knowledge and risk factors for HCV infection. This study provided first-of-its-kind data on viral hepatitis in a gang population and demonstrated the need for educational screening programmes to aid early HCV detection, prevention and treatment.

The short-term incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma is not increased after hepatitis C treatment with direct-acting antivirals: An ERCHIVES study

Recent studies have reported higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, making definitive conclusions has been challenging because of the heterogeneous populations and methodologies of these reports. We investigated whether DAA use is associated with higher rates of incident HCC compared to treatment with interferon (IFN)-based regimens. We performed a retrospective, population-based cohort study using the Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES) database. In a cohort of 17,836 persons, sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved by 66.6% and 96.2% of the IFN and DAA groups, respectively. Among all treated persons, risk of HCC was not higher in the DAA group compared to the IFN group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.55, 2.08). Among persons with cirrhosis who achieved SVR, neither the HCC incidence rate nor HCC-free survival were significantly different in the DAA group compared to the IFN group (21.2 vs. 22.8 per 1,000 person-years; P = 0.78 and log-rank P = 0.17, respectively). Untreated persons with cirrhosis had a significantly higher HCC incidence rate (45.3 per 1,000 person-years) compared to those treated with either IFN or DAAs (P = 0.03). Both groups of treated persons had significantly lower probability of HCC development compared to untreated persons (log-rank, P = 0.0004).

CONCLUSION

DAA treatment is not associated with a higher risk of HCC in persons with cirrhosis with chronic HCV infection in the short term. Previously reported higher rates of HCC associated with DAA treatment may be explained by both the presence of relatively fewer baseline HCC risk factors in persons treated with IFN as well as selection bias, given that DAA regimens were used to treat persons at higher risk for developing HCC. (Hepatology 2018;67:2244-2253).

Establishing the cascade of care for hepatitis C in England-benchmarking to monitor impact of direct acting antivirals

Little is known about engagement and retention in care of people diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in England. Establishing a cascade of care informs targeted interventions for improving case finding, referral, treatment uptake and retention in care. Using data from the sentinel surveillance of blood-borne virus (SSBBV) testing between 2005 and 2014, we investigate the continuum of care of those tested for HCV in England. Persons ≥1 year old with an anti-HCV test and subsequent RNA tests between 2005 and 2014 reported to SSBBV were collated. We describe the cascade of care, as the patient pathway from a diagnostic test, referral into care, treatment and patient outcomes. Between 2005 and 2014, 2 390 507 samples were tested for anti-HCV, corresponding to 1 766 515 persons. A total of 53 038 persons (35 190 men and 17 165 women) with anti-HCV positive were newly reported to SSBBV. An RNA test was conducted on 77.0% persons who were anti-HCV positive, 72.3% of whom were viraemic (RNA positive) during this time period, 21.4% had evidence of treatment and 3130 49.5% had evidence of a sustained virological response (SVR). In multivariable models, confirmation of viraemia by RNA test varied by age and region/test setting; evidence of treatment varied by age, year of test and region/test setting; and SVR varied by age, year of test and region/setting of test. In conclusion, our findings provide HCV cascade of care estimates prior to the introduction of direct acting antivirals. These findings provide important baseline cascade estimates to benchmark progress towards elimination of HCV as a major public health threat.

HIV and viral hepatitis coinfection analysis using surveillance data from 15 US states and two cities

Coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and viral hepatitis is associated with high morbidity and mortality in the absence of clinical management, making identification of these cases crucial. We examined characteristics of HIV and viral hepatitis coinfections by using surveillance data from 15 US states and two cities. Each jurisdiction used an automated deterministic matching method to link surveillance data for persons with reported acute and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, to persons reported with HIV infection. Of the 504 398 persons living with diagnosed HIV infection at the end of 2014, 2.0% were coinfected with HBV and 6.7% were coinfected with HCV. Of the 269 884 persons ever reported with HBV, 5.2% were reported with HIV. Of the 1 093 050 persons ever reported with HCV, 4.3% were reported with HIV. A greater proportion of persons coinfected with HIV and HBV were males and blacks/African Americans, compared with those with HIV monoinfection. Persons who inject drugs represented a greater proportion of those coinfected with HIV and HCV, compared with those with HIV monoinfection. Matching HIV and viral hepatitis surveillance data highlights epidemiological characteristics of persons coinfected and can be used to routinely monitor health status and guide state and national public health interventions.

Association of HCV mutated proteins and host SNPs in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C virus plays a significant role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. The pathogenic mechanisms of hepatocellular carcinoma with HCV infection are generally linked with inflammation, cytokines, fibrosis, cellular signaling pathways, and liver cell proliferation modulating pathways. HCV encoded proteins (Core, NS3, NS4, NS5A) interact with a broad range of hepatocytes derived factors to modulate an array of activities such as cell signaling, DNA repair, transcription and translational regulation, cell propagation, apoptosis, membrane topology. These four viral proteins are also implicated to show a strong conversion potential in tissue culture. Furthermore, Core and NS5A also trigger the accretion of the β-catenin pathway as a common target to contribute viral induced transformation. There is a strong association between HCV variants within Core, NS4, and NS5A and host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the HCC pathogenesis. Identification of such viral mutants and host SNPs is very critical to determine the risk of HCC and response to antiviral therapy. In this review, we highlight the association of key variants, mutated proteins, and host SNPs in development of HCV induced HCC. How such viral mutants may modulate the interaction with cellular host machinery is also discussed.

Role of TLRs and IL-6 in the outcome of chronic hepatitis C treatment in Tunisian population

OBJECTIVES

TLRs are one of the most studied families of pathogen recognition receptors (PRRs) and play a pivotal role during HCV infection. The binding of ligands to TLRs on antigen presenting cells (APCs) leads to secretion of inflammatory cytokines, such as IL6, and induction of the acquired immunity response. Therefore, it has become necessarily to harness the TLRs properties' on therapeutically tools to enhance the HCV treatment response. Herein, we investigated the association between TLR3, TLR4 variants and nine IL-6 polymorphisms, and response to anti-viral treatment during HCV infection.

METHODS

Study subjects comprised 120 patients infected with HCV-1b and treated with Peg-IFN/RBV. Genotyping of nine IL-6 variants were done by real -time PCR and genotyping of TLRs polymorphisms were done by RFLP-PCR.

RESULTS

High frequency of TLR3 rs3775290 C/C genotype and TLR4 rs4986790 A/A genotype were noticed among patients with sustained viral response compared to Non-responder patients. The genetic association of TLR3 and TLR4 variants was evidenced by the improvement in the kinetics of viral load decline, with superiority of TLR3 compared to TLR4. Among, nine polymorphisms studied on IL-6 only rs1800796, rs2069845 and rs1880242 were associated with sustained viral response. Our study reports also that the common favourable IL-28B variant is essential for TLR-activated antiviral protection.

CONCLUSION

TLR3 and TLR4 are involved in the pathogenesis of viral infections. TLR3 may be better suited than TLR4 to activate anti-viral program. Moreover, we propose that the Th2 cytokine, IL-6, constitutes a determinant of the outcome of therapy in HCV patients.

Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area.

METHODS

We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection.

RESULTS

The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%.

CONCLUSION

These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.

Is elimination of hepatitis C from the UK by 2030 a realistic goal?

INTRODUCTION

Highly effective, combination therapy for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now available. Current cure rates are close to 100% and applicable to all patients irrespective of race, age, severity of liver disease or viral genotype. Remarkably for persistent infection, current treatment is recommended for as little as 12 weeks; recent studies suggest even shorter courses. In contrast to interferon-based therapy, present regimens have few side effects and serious adverse events are rare. The success and safety of these regimens has stimulated interest in the possible eventual elimination of HCV. Barriers to elimination include cost of drugs and finding patients in the community less likely to interact with medical services who are a potential reservoir of infection.

SOURCES OF DATA

Pubmed.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Antiviral agents already available are highly effective.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

The cost of the newer antiviral agents is very high, restricting treatment numbers in the UK in 2015/16 and focusing therapy on those patients with significant fibrosis. Recently, patients with less severe disease have been offered therapy, but delivery may be slowed by high costs. Many believe that insufficient pressure has been brought to bear to reduce costs. Eventual elimination will depend first on reducing treatment costs for those known to have chronic HCV infection and then finding patients in the community with infection unaware of their illness or reluctant/unable to engage with medical services.

AREAS FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

Determining the most effective strategies to identify 'invisible' patients in the community with chronic HCV infection.

Epidemiology of Infectious Disease-Related Death After Release from Prison, Washington State, United States, and Queensland, Australia: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

People in prison may be at high risk for infectious diseases and have an elevated risk of death immediately after release compared with later; their risk of death is elevated for at least a decade after release. We compared rates, characteristics, and prison-related risk factors for infectious disease-related mortality among people released from prisons in Queensland, Australia, and Washington State, United States, regions with analogous available data.

METHODS

We analyzed data from retrospective cohort studies of people released from prison in Queensland (1997-2007, n=37,180) and Washington State (1999-2009, n=76,208) and linked identifiers from each cohort to its respective national death index. We estimated infectious disease-related mortality rates (deaths per person-years in community) and examined associations using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

The most frequent infectious disease-related underlying cause of death after release from prison was pneumonia (43%, 23/54 deaths) in the Australian cohort and viral hepatitis (40%, 69/171 deaths) in the U.S. cohort. The infectious disease-related mortality rate was significantly higher in the U.S. cohort than in the Australian cohort (51.2 vs. 26.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years; incidence rate ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence interval 1.42, 2.62). In both cohorts, increasing age was strongly associated with mortality from infectious diseases.

CONCLUSION

Differences in the epidemiology of infectious disease-related mortality among people released from prison may reflect differences in patterns of community health service delivery in each region. These findings highlight the importance of preventing and treating hepatitis C and other infectious diseases during the transition from prison to the community.

Hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of new generation antivirals

Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Interferon has been the major antiviral treatment, yielding viral clearance in approximately half of patients. New direct-acting antivirals substantially improved the cure rate to above 90%. However, access to therapies remains limited due to the high costs and under-diagnosis of infection in specific subpopulations, e.g., baby boomers, inmates, and injection drug users, and therefore, hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is predicted to increase in the next decades even in high-resource countries. Moreover, cancer risk persists even after 10 years of viral cure, and thus a clinical strategy for its monitoring is urgently needed. Several risk-predictive host factors, e.g., advanced liver fibrosis, older age, accompanying metabolic diseases such as diabetes, persisting hepatic inflammation, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein, as well as viral factors, e.g., core protein variants and genotype 3, have been reported. Indeed, a molecular signature in the liver has been associated with cancer risk even after viral cure. Direct-acting antivirals may affect cancer development and recurrence, which needs to be determined in further investigation.

Is elimination of HCV possible in a country with low diagnostic rate and moderate HCV prevalence?: The case of Greece

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is anticipated to change the future burden of disease. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of IFN-free DAAs on HCV-related morbidity and mortality in Greece under different scenarios concerning treatment coverage and primary prevention, including the proposed by World Health Organization Global Hepatitis Strategy.

METHODS

A previously described model was used to project the future disease burden up to 2030 under scenarios, which includes treatment based on the combination of pegylated-IFN with ribavirin (base case) and scenarios using DAAs therapies.

RESULTS

Under the base case scenario, an increase in HCV-related morbidity and mortality is predicted in Greece (mortality in 2030: +23.6% compared with 2015). If DAAs are used with the same treatment coverage, the number of hepatocellular carcinoma cases and of liver related deaths are predicted to be lower by 4-7% compared with 2015. Under increased treatment coverage (from 2000 treated/year to approximately 5000/year in 2015-2020 and 2500/year subsequently), morbidity and mortality will decrease by 43-53% in 2030 compared with 2015. To achieve the WHO Global Hepatitis Strategy goals, a total number of 86 500 chronic hepatitis C patients will have to be treated during 2015-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Elimination of HCV in Greece by 2030 necessitates great improvements in primary prevention, implementation of large screening programs and high treatment coverage.

What affects response rates in primary healthcare-based programmes? An analysis of individual and unit-related factors associated with increased odds of non-response based on HCV screening in the general population in Poland

OBJECTIVES

Response rate in public health programmes may be a limiting factor. It is important to first consider their delivery and acceptability for the target. This study aimed at determining individual and unit-related factors associated with increased odds of non-response based on hepatitis C virus screening in primary healthcare.

DESIGN

Primary healthcare units (PHCUs) were extracted from the Register of Health Care Centres. Each of the PHCUs was to enrol adult patients selected on a random basis. Data on the recruitment of PHCUs and patients were analysed. Multilevel modelling was applied to investigate individual and unit-related factors associated with non-response. Multilevel logistic model was developed with fixed effects and only a random intercept for the unit. Preliminary analysis included a random effect for unit and each of the individual or PHCU covariates separately. For each of the PHCU covariates, we applied a two-level model with individual covariates, unit random effect and a single fixed effect of this unit covariate.

SETTING

This study was conducted in primary care units in selected provinces in Poland.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 242 PHCUs and 24 480 adults were invited. Of them, 44 PHCUs and 20 939 patients agreed to participate. Both PHCUs and patients were randomly selected.

RESULTS

Data on 44 PHCUs and 24 480 patients were analysed. PHCU-level factors and recruitment strategies were important predictors of non-response. Unit random effect was significant in all models. Larger and private units reported higher non-response rates, while for those with a history of running public health programmes the odds of non-response was lower. Proactive recruitment, more working hours devoted to the project and patient resulted in higher acceptance of the project. Higher number of personnel had no such effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Prior to the implementation of public health programme, several factors that could hinder its execution should be addressed.

Clinical Impact of Viral Load on the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-Related Mortality in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Aim. This study aimed to assess clinical impact of hepatitis C viral load on the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality in HCV-infected patients. Methods. A total of 111 subjects with chronic HCV infection who were available for serum quantitation of HCV RNA were recruited in this retrospective cohort. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) of developing HCC and liver-related mortality according to serum HCV RNA titers. Results. HCC was developed in 14 patients during follow-up period. The cumulative risk of HCC development was higher in subjects with high HCV RNA titer (log HCV RNA IU/mL > 6) than subjects with low titer (log HCV RNA IU/mL ≦ 6) (HR = 4.63, P = 0.032), giving an incidence rate of 474.1 and 111.5 per 10,000 person-years, respectively. Old age (HR = 9.71, P = 0.014), accompanying cirrhosis (HR = 19.34, P = 0.004), and low platelet count (HR = 13.97, P = 0.009) were other independent risk factors for the development of HCC. Liver-related death occurred in 7 patients. Accompanying cirrhosis (HR = 6.13, P = 0.012) and low albumin level (HR = 9.17, P = 0.002), but not HCV RNA titer, were significant risk factors related to liver-related mortality. Conclusion. Serum HCV RNA titer may be considered an independent risk factor for the development of HCC but not liver-related mortality.

Urgent action to fight hepatitis C in people who inject drugs in Europe

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, is curable in most people. Injecting drug use currently accounts for 80 % of new HCV infections with a known transmission route in the European Union (EU). HCV has generally received little attention from the public or policymakers in the EU, with major gaps in national-level strategies, action plans, guidelines and the evidence base. Specifically, people who inject drugs (PWID) are often excluded from treatment owing to various patient, healthcare provider and health system factors. All policymakers responsible for health services in EU countries should ensure that prevention, treatment, care and support interventions addressing HCV in PWID are developed and implemented. According to current best practice, PWID should have access to comprehensive, evidence-based multiprofessional harm reduction (especially opioid substitution therapy and clean needles and syringes) and support/care services based in the community and modified with community involvement to accommodate this hard-to-reach population. Other recommended components of care include vaccination against hepatitis B and other infections; peer support interventions; HIV testing, prevention and treatment; drug and alcohol services; psychological care as needed; and social support services. HCV testing should be performed regularly in PWID to identify infected persons and engage them in care. HCV-infected PWID should be considered for antiviral treatment (based on an individualised assessment and delivered within multidisciplinary care/support programmes) both to cure infected individuals and prevent onward transmission. Modelling data suggest that the HCV disease burden can only be cut substantially if antiviral treatment is scaled up together with prevention programmes. Measures should be taken to reduce stigma and discrimination against PWID at the provider and institutional levels. In conclusion, strategic action at the policy level is urgently needed to increase access to HCV prevention, testing and treatment among PWID, the group at highest risk of HCV infection. Such action has the potential to substantially reduce the number of infected persons, along with the disease burden and related care costs.

Characteristics of anti-hepatitis C virus antibody-positive patients in a hospital setting in Douala, Cameroon

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major public health problem, especially in resource-limited settings where many patients are diagnosed at the stage of complications. In Cameroon, where HCV is endemic, little is known about the clinical, biological, and virological profile of HCV-infected patients.

METHODS

A clinical case note review of all patients positive for antibodies against HCV diagnosed at the gastroenterology outpatient clinic of the Douala General Hospital, Cameroon, from January 2008 to December 2014, was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 524 patients were included in the study, 53% of whom were female. The mean age was 56±13 years. A history of blood transfusion and a history of scarification were the most common potential risk factors for HCV exposure, as found in 16% and 13% of the study population, respectively. Current alcohol use was found in 24% of patients. Co-infection with hepatitis B virus and HIV was 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively. Among the patients, 39% had no complaint at diagnosis; only 16% were diagnosed through a routine medical checkup. Clinically, the most common finding was hepatomegaly (26.1% of patients). Transaminases above the upper limit of normal were found in 55.2% of patients, particularly those aged >57 years (p=0.001). Genotypes 1 (43.95%), 2 (25.11%), and 4 (28.25%) were the most common. Liver cirrhosis was present in 11% of patients and hepatocellular carcinoma in 4%, the latter being more common in males (p<0.001) and in those aged >57 years (p=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In the gastroenterology clinic of Douala General Hospital, while almost 40% of patients who were anti-HCV antibody-positive were asymptomatic and diagnosed fortuitously, some already presented complications, including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. There is an urgent need to put in place programs to increase awareness and diagnosis of HCV infection and to develop extensive and targeted anti-HCV treatment guidelines to improve the management of these patients in Cameroon.

Chronic hepatitis C - what do the new drugs offer and who should get them first?

Until recently in the UK the treatment of HCV depended on combination regimes of interferon (IFN) and the antiviral drug ribavirin. These regimes required regular injections and were of variable duration (generally for a minimum of 12 weeks), and the use of IFN often caused unacceptable side effects (thrombocytopenia, leukopenia and depression). Of the common HCV genotypes in the UK, genotype 1 responded relatively poorly to these regimes (50-60% viral clearance), while most (80% plus) of genotype 3 patients responded with sustained viral clearance. Patients with severe liver disease (decompensated cirrhosis) tolerated these regimens very poorly and often their liver function deteriorated. The recent introduction of a series of direct anti-viral agents (DAAs) offers the potential to revolutionise treatment, particularly in genotype 1 patients and those with advanced liver disease, as drug regimens avoiding IFN have been developed, and can be curative in, for example, 95% of genotype 1 patients. The DAAs are currently being evaluated and introduced into UK clinical practice. Choice of drug regime, and strategies for identifying patient groups suitable for treatment, are discussed, as are the prospects for eventual complete control of the HCV epidemic.