Migration intensity has no effect on peak HIV prevalence: an ecological study

Spatial pattern and determinants of HIV infection among adults aged 15 to 54 years in India - Evidence from National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the spatial pattern and determinants of HIV infection in India.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary data analysis using the National Family Health Survey-4 data obtained from the Demographic Health Survey programme. We accounted for clustering and stratification in the sampling design using the svyset command. Spatial analysis was performed by generating the Moran's I statistic and local indicators for spatial association (LISA) maps. Logistic regression was performed to identify the determinants of HIV infection.

RESULTS

230 213 individuals were included. Prevalence of HIV infection in India was 0.24% (95% CI: 0.21%-0.28%). Being separated/widowed/divorced (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.22-5.40), living in an urban area (aOR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.79-3.37), being resident in the North-Eastern (aOR = 4.25, 95% CI: 2.60-6.93), Southern (aOR = 3.13, 95% CI: 1.99-4.91) or Western region (aOR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.08-4.33), having a history of multiple sexual partners (aOR = 1.99, 95% CI:1.42-2.79), a suspected STI (aOR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.38-3.90) or self-reported TB (aOR = 7.80, 95% CI: 2.52-24.05) were significantly in association with HIV infection. Moran's I was 0.377, suggesting positive spatial autocorrelation. The LISA cluster map indicated 60 hotspot districts in India, mostly in southern states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana followed by north-eastern states such as Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Assam.

CONCLUSION

HIV infection among adults aged 15-54 years in India is spatially clustered with the majority occurring in southern and north-eastern states. Hence, region- or district-specific strategies with focused interventions should be adopted.

"Left behind": why implementing migration-aware responses to HIV for migrant farm workers is a priority for South Africa

Like many other countries, South Africa (SA) has committed to the Sustainable Development Goals that aim to "leave no-one behind", in efforts towards universal health coverage, and meeting the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets through the implementation of universal test and treat (UTT) interventions. SA is associated with high levels of international and internal migration that, in certain contexts, are known to (1) increase the risk of acquiring HIV and (2) present challenges to HIV treatment access and continuity. Despite this, migration and mobility are not adequately considered in responses to HIV. As SA rolls out UTT programmes and antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP) interventions, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PreP), there is an urgent need to ensure that these are migration-aware and mobility-competent. In SA, a key population that experiences a disproportionate HIV burden is international migrant farm workers living and working on commercial farms along the border with Zimbabwe. In this article, a social determinants of health approach is applied to explore the context within which this population struggles to access positive determinants of health, including the public health care system, and the implications of this for HIV programming. It is argued that, unless policies and programming become migration-aware and mobility-competent, UTT and TasP interventions will struggle to address the high burden of HIV among this population and, as a result, progress towards global health targets will be limited.

Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Methods

The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants.

Results

A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030.

Conclusions

Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.

Clinical outcomes of a cohort of migrants and citizens living with human immunodeficiency virus in Botswana: implications for Joint United Nation Program on HIV and AIDS 90-90-90 targets

The aim of the study was to evaluate the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cascade and mortality in migrants and citizens living with HIV in Botswana.Retrospective 2002 to 2016 cohort study using electronic medical records from a single center managing a high migrant case load.Records for 768 migrants and 3274 citizens living with HIV were included. Maipelo Trust, a nongovernmental organization, funded care for most migrants (70%); most citizens (85%) had personal health insurance. Seventy percent of migrants and 93% of citizens had received antiretroviral therapy (ART). At study end, 44% and 27% of migrants and citizens, respectively were retained in care at the clinic (P < .001). Among the 35% and 60% of migrants and citizens on ART respectively with viral load (VL) results in 2016, viral suppression was lower among migrants (82%) than citizens (95%) (P < .001). Citizens on ART had a median 157-unit [95% confidence interval (CI) 122-192] greater increase in CD4+ T-cell count (last minus first recorded count) than migrants after adjusting for baseline count (P < .001). Five-year survival was 92% (95% CI = 87.6-94.8) for migrants and 96% (95% CI = 95.4-97.2) for citizens. Migrants had higher mortality than citizens after entry into care (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.34-3.89, P = .002) and ART initiation (hazard ratio = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.24-3.78, P = .01).Fewer migrants than citizens living with HIV in Botswana were on ART, accessed VL monitoring, achieved viral suppression, and survived. The HIV treatment cascade appears suboptimal for migrants, undermining local 90-90-90 targets. These results highlight the need to include migrants in mainstream-funded HIV treatment programs, as microepidemics can slow HIV epidemic control.

Determinants of consistently high HIV prevalence in Indian Districts: A multi-level analysis

INTRODUCTION

Factors associated with persistently high Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence levels in several districts of India are not well understood. This study was undertaken to determine the association of socio-demographic characteristics, economic factors, awareness about HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs), and condom use with consistently high HIV prevalence in the Indian districts and to ascertain whether these associations differed across various regions of India.

METHODS

This study was carried out including all 640 districts of India. Secondary analysis of data obtained from the Census of India-2011, HIV Sentinel Surveillance in India and District Level Household Survey-III was done. Population profile, socio-economic characteristics, levels of HIV/STI/condom awareness and condom use, were compared between the districts with and without consistently high HIV prevalence. Due to the presence of collinearity among predictor variables, we used principal component analysis and the principal component scores were included as covariates for further analysis. Considering the districts at level 1 and the regions at level 2, multi-level analysis was done by generalised linear mixed models. Variance partition coefficient and median odds ratio were also calculated.

RESULTS

Sixty-three districts with consistently high HIV prevalence were found clustered in the South and the North-east regions of India. Population size, density and urbanisation were found to be positively associated with consistently high HIV prevalence in these districts. Higher levels of literacy, better socio-economic status, higher proportion of population in reproductive age group and late marriages were positively associated with consistently high HIV prevalence in all regions of India except in the Southern region. Higher levels of knowledge about the role of condoms in HIV prevention and condom use were associated with low HIV prevalence at the district level.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity among factors associated with consistently high HIV prevalence at the district level in different regions of India necessitates special region-specific strategies for HIV control. Increasing awareness about HIV alone is not sufficient for controlling the HIV epidemic and there is a need to raise knowledge levels about preventive measures against HIV and promote the use of condoms amongst population.

HIV diagnoses in migrant populations in Australia-A changing epidemiology

Introduction

We conducted a detailed analysis of trends in new HIV diagnoses in Australia by country of birth, to understand any changes in epidemiology, relationship to migration patterns and implications for public health programs.

Methods

Poisson regression analyses were performed, comparing the age-standardised HIV diagnosis rates per 100,000 estimated resident population between 2006–2010 and 2011–2015 by region of birth, with stratification by exposure (male-to-male sex, heterosexual sex–males and females). Correlation between the number of permanent and long-term arrivals was also explored using linear regression models.

Results

Between 2006 and 2015, there were 6,741 new HIV diagnoses attributed to male-to-male sex and 2,093 attributed to heterosexual sex, with the proportion of diagnoses attributed to male-to-male sex who were Australian-born decreasing from 72.5% to 66.5%. Compared with 2006–2010, the average annual HIV diagnosis rate per 100,000 in 2011–15 attributed to male-to-male sex was significantly higher in men born in South-East Asia (summary rate ratio (SRR) = 1.37, p = 0.001), North-East Asia (SRR = 2.18, p<0.001) and the Americas (SRR = 1.37, p = 0.025), but significantly lower as a result of heterosexual sex in men born in South-East Asia (SRR = 0.49, p = 0.002), Southern and Central Asia (SRR = 0.50, p = 0.014) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SRR = 0.39, p<0.001) and women born in South-East Asia (SRR = 0.61, p = 0.002) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SRR = 0.61, p<0.001). Positive associations were observed between the number of permanent and long-term arrivals and HIV diagnoses particularly in relation to diagnoses associated with male-to-male sex in men from North Africa and the Middle East, North Asia, Southern and Central Asia and the Americas.

Conclusion

The epidemiology of HIV in Australia is changing, with an increase in HIV diagnosis rates attributed to male-to-male sex amongst men born in Asia and the Americas. Tailored strategies must be developed to increase access to, and uptake of, prevention, testing and treatment in this group.

It's the network, stupid: a population's sexual network connectivity determines its STI prevalence

There is little consensus as to why sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are more prevalent in some populations than others. Using a broad definition of sexual network connectivity that includes both structural and conductivity-related factors, we argue that the available evidence suggests that high prevalence of traditional STIs, HIV and BV can be parsimoniously explained by these populations having more connected sexual networks. Positive feedback, whereby BV and various STIs enhance the spread of other STIs, then further accentuates the spread of BV, HIV and other STIs. We review evidence that support this hypothesis and end by suggesting study designs that could further evaluate the hypothesis, as well as implications of this hypothesis for the prevention and management of STIs.

It's the network, stupid: a population's sexual network connectivity determines its STI prevalence

There is little consensus as to why sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are more prevalent in some populations than others. Using a broad definition of sexual network connectivity that includes both structural and conductivity-related factors, we argue that the available evidence suggests that high prevalence of traditional STIs, HIV and BV can be parsimoniously explained by these populations having more connected sexual networks. Positive feedback, whereby BV and various STIs enhance the spread of other STIs, then further accentuates the spread of BV, HIV and other STIs. We review evidence that support this hypothesis and end by suggesting study designs that could further evaluate the hypothesis, as well as implications of this hypothesis for the prevention and management of STIs.

Space-time migration patterns and risk of HIV acquisition in rural South Africa

Objective:

To quantify the space-time dimensions of human mobility in relationship to the risk of HIV acquisition.

Methods:

We used data from the population cohort located in a high HIV prevalence, rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (2000–2014). We geolocated 8006 migration events (representing 1 028 782 km traveled) for 17 743 individuals (≥15 years of age) who were HIV negative at baseline and followed up these individuals for HIV acquisition (70 395 person-years). Based on the complete geolocated residential history of every individual in this cohort, we constructed two detailed time-varying migration indices. We then used interval-censored Cox proportional hazards models to quantify the relationship between the migration indices and the risk of HIV acquisition.

Results:

In total, 17.4% of participants migrated at least once outside the rural study community during the period of observation (median migration distance = 107.1 km, interquartile range 18.9–387.5). The two migration indices were highly predictive of hazard of HIV acquisition (P < 0.01) in both men and women. Holding other factors equal, the risk of acquiring HIV infection increased by 50% for migration distances of 40 km (men) and 109 km (women). HIV acquisition risk also increased by 50% when participants spent 44% (men) and 90% (women) of their respective time outside the rural study community.

Conclusion:

This in-depth analysis of a population cohort in a rural sub-Saharan African population has revealed a clear nonlinear relationship between distance migrated and HIV acquisition. Our findings show that even relatively short-distance migration events confer substantial additional risk of acquisition.

HIV/AIDS among pastoralists and refugees in north-east Africa: a neglected problem

The eight member states (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda) of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) have the largest proportions of cross-border mobile pastoralists and refugees in Africa. Although all IGAD countries have had national HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment programmes since the late 1980s, the IGAD Regional HIV & AIDS Partnership Program was (IRAPP) established in 2007 to mitigate the challenges of HIV among neglected pastoral and refugee communities. This article assesses vulnerability of pastoralists and refugee communities to HIV and interventions targeting these groups in the IGAD countries. Outcomes from this study may serve as a baseline for further research and to improve interventions. Published articles were accessed through web searches using PubMed and Google Scholar engines and unpublished documents were collected manually. The search terms were HIV risk behaviour, vulnerability, HIV prevalence and interventions, under the headings pastoralists, refugees, IGAD and north-east Africa for the period 2001-2014. Of the 214 documents reviewed, 78 met the inclusion criteria and were included. Most HIV/AIDS related studies focusing of pastoral communities in IGAD countries were found to be limited in scope and coverage but reveal precarious situations. Sero-prevalence among various pastoral populations ranged from 1% to 21% in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda and from 1% to 5% among refugees in Sudan, Kenya and Uganda. Socioeconomic, cultural, logistic, infrastructure and programmatic factors were found to contribute to continuing vulnerability to HIV. Interventions need to be further contextualised to the needs of those impoverished populations and integrated into national HIV/AIDS programmes. HIV/AIDS remains a major public health concern among the pastoral and refugee communities of IGAD countries. This calls for IGAD to collaborate with national and international partners in designing and implementing more effective prevention and control programmes. Furthermore, interventions must extend beyond the health sector and improve the livelihood of these populations.

Migration, sexual behaviour, and HIV risk: a general population cohort in rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Increased sexual risk behaviour and HIV prevalence have been reported in migrants compared with nonmigrants in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the association of residential and migration patterns with sexual HIV risk behaviours and HIV prevalence in an open, general population cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

In a mainly rural demographic surveillance area in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we collected longitudinal demographic, migration, sexual behaviour, and HIV status data through household surveillance twice per year and individual surveillance once per year. All resident household members and a sample of non-resident household members (stratified by sex and migration patterns) were eligible for participation. Participants reported sexual risk behaviours, including data for multiple, concurrent, and casual sexual partners and condom use, and gave a dried blood spot sample via fingerprick for HIV testing. We investigated population-level differences in sexual HIV risk behaviours and HIV prevalence with respect to migration indicators using logistic regression models.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2011, the total eligible population at each surveillance round ranged between 21 129 and 22 726 women (aged 17-49 years) and between 20 399 and 22 100 men (aged 17-54 years). The number of eligible residents in any round ranged from 24 395 to 26 664 and the number of eligible non-residents ranged from 17 002 to 18 891 between rounds. The stratified sample of non-residents included between 2350 and 3366 individuals each year. Sexual risk behaviours were significantly more common in non-residents than in residents for both men and women. Estimated differences in sexual risk behaviours, but not HIV prevalence, varied between the migration indicators: recent migration, mobility, and migration type. HIV prevalence was significantly increased in current residents with a recent history of migration compared with other residents in the study area in men(adjusted odds ratio 1·19, 95% CI 1·07-1·33) and in women (1·18, 1·10-1·26).

INTERPRETATION

Local information about migrants and highly mobile individuals could help to target intervention strategies that are based on the identification of transmission hotspots.Funding Wellcome Trust.