Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey

Exploring under-five mortality disparities: a comparative analysis of rural and urban areas in Punjab-Pakistan, using Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data

OBJECTIVES

Child health is a social and economic development indicator. Pakistan is one of the countries with a high rate of under-five mortality. This research aims to examine several demographic, geographical, socioeconomic, health-related, and environmental factors related to under-five mortality in both rural and urban areas of Punjab, Pakistan.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

We used data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2017-18 of children aged between 0 and 59 months (n = 39,024), steered by the Punjab Bureau of Statistics. Children who died before reaching the age of five were considered as outcome variables. The bivariate relationship of the outcome variable with each socio-economic, demographic, health-seeking, and environmental variable is estimated with a P-value of <0.01. We used logistic regression analysis separately. Inclusive descriptive statistics were used for the detailed analysis, i.e., compare means, cross-tabulations, independent sample t-tests, and comparison across rural-urban areas.

RESULTS

Results showed that in the mother-level variables, mother education plays a substantial role in reducing mortality; the higher the level of education, the lower the mortality rate.

CONCLUSION

The study revealed that improving drinking water sources, such as tap and bottled water, can reduce the incidence of mortality, particularly in low-income households. Therefore, interventions targeting children are likely to be most effective for reducing the under-five mortality rate in Pakistan.

Time to death and its determinants of under-five children in rural Ethiopia by using shared frailty

Under-five (U5M) is one of the most significant and sensitive measures of the community's health. Children who live in rural areas are more likely than those who live in urban areas to die before the age of five. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and its determinants in rural Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study as a secondary source (EMDHS). A total of 4426 weighted under-five children were included in the study. To determine survival time and identify predictors of death among children under the age of five, the Cox's gamma shared frailty model and the Kaplan Meier model, respectively, were used. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were used to measure the size and direction of the association. The Study showed that in rural Ethiopia, 6.03% of children died before celebrating their first birthday. The median age of under-five mortality in rural Ethiopia was estimated to be 29 Months. The hazard of death among under-five children and those who had given birth to two children in the last five years was 4.99 times less likely to be at risk of dying than those who had given birth to one Child in the previous five years (AHR 4.99, 95% CI 2.97, 8.83). The Study Concluded that under-five mortality remained high in rural Ethiopia. In the final model, the Age of Mothers, Sex of Household, Breastfeeding, Types of Birth, Sex of Child, Educational Level of Mothers, Wealth Index, Child ever born, Marital Status, and Water Source were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Twins and children who are not breastfed should receive additional attention, along with improving water resources for households and mothers income.

Zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis of factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia using 2019 Ethiopian mini demographic and health survey data

BACKGROUND

Remarkable reduction in global under-five mortality has been seen over the past two decades. However, Ethiopia is among the five countries which account for about half (49%) of all under-five mortality worldwide. This study aimed at identifying factors associated with under-five children mortality in Ethiopia using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data.

METHODS

The most recent national representative demography and health survey data of Ethiopia, 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data, were used for this study. Count data regression models were applied to identify the factors associated with under-five children mortality. Statistical significance was declared at P-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model was found to be the best model compared to other count regression models based on models comparison Criteria. The ZIP model revealed that decreased risk of under-five mortality was associated with mothers aged 25-34 years, unmarried mothers, mothers delivered in health facility, mothers used Pill/IUD, mothers who had larger number of children at home whereas increased risk of under-five mortality was associated with older mothers at their first births, mothers from rural areas, mothers travel for 1-30 min and >30 min to get drinking water, mothers used charcoal and wood, children with higher birth order and multiple births.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, place of residence, region, place of delivery, religion, age of mother, mother's age at first birth, marital status, birth order, birth type, current contraceptive type used, type of cooking fuel, time to get drinking water, and number of children at home were statistically significant factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia. Thus, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health and other concerned bodies are recommended to encourage mothers to deliver at health institutions, give awareness for mothers to use Pill/IUD contraceptive type, and facilitate rural areas to have electricity and drinking water near to homes so as to minimize the under-five mortality to achieve the sustainable development goal.

Prevalence of Undernutrition and Change Detection among under five years Children of Empowered Action Group States in India: Scrutinizing from National Family Health Survey, 2016-2021

Change detection and prevalence of child undernutrition among the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states of India were studied using National Family Health Survey-4 and 5 data. The results identified that the prevalence of undernutrition in most of the EAG states is still more than 30%. Although stunting and underweight have decreased in all EAG states, this pattern is higher than that of the national level but the prevalence of wasting has only increased in Bihar. Strengthening public health initiatives and collaborative endeavor between organizations, enhancing mother's education, increasing awareness, and raising the economic as well as sociopolitical empowerment of mothers are essential for addressing the undernutrition issue.

Impact of ignoring sampling design in the prediction of binary health outcomes through logistic regression: evidence from Malawi demographic and health survey under-five mortality data; 2000-2016

The birth and death rates of a population are among the crucial vital statistics for socio-economic policy planning in any country. Since the under-five mortality rate is one of the indicators for monitoring the health of a population, it requires regular and accurate estimation. The national demographic and health survey data, that are readily available to the puplic, have become a means for answering most health-related questions among African populations, using relevant statistical methods. However, many of such applications tend to ignore survey design effect in the estimations, despite the availability of statistical tools that support the analyses. Little is known about the amount of inaccurate information that is generated when predicting under-five mortality rates. This study estimates and compares the bias encountered when applying unweighted and weighted logistic regression methods to predict under-five mortality rate in Malawi using nationwide survey data. The Malawi demographic and health survey data of 2004, 2010, and 2015-16 were used to determine the bias. The analyses were carried out in R software version 3.6.3 and Stata version 12.0. A logistic regression model that included various bio- and socio-demographic factors concerning the child, mother and households was used to estimate the under-five mortality rate. The results showed that accuracy of predicting the national under-five mortality rate hinges on cluster-weighting of the overall predicted probability of child-deaths, regardless of whether the model was weighted or not. Weighting the model caused small positive and negative changes in various fixed-effect estimates, which diffused the result of weighting in the fitted probabilities of deaths. In turn, there was no difference between the overall predicted mortality rate obtained using the weighted model and that obtained in the unweighted model. We recommend considering survey cluster-weights during the computation of overall predicted probability of events for a binary health outcome. This can be done without worrying about the weights during model fitting, whose aim is prediction of the population parameter.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with under-five mortality in the Solomon Islands: an investigation from the 2015 Solomon Islands demographic and health survey data

Background

Annually, over five million children die before their fifth birthday worldwide, with 98% of these deaths occurring in low-and middle-income countries. The prevalence and risks for under-five mortality are not well-established for the Solomon Islands.

Methods

We used the Solomon Islands Demographic and Health Survey 2015 data (SIDHS 2015) to estimate the prevalence and risk factors associated with under-five mortality.

Findings

Neonatal, infant, child and under-five mortality prevalence were 8/1000, 17/1000, 12/1000 and 21/1000 live births, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, neonatal mortality was associated with no breastfeeding [aRR 34.80 (13.60, 89.03)], no postnatal check [aRR 11.36 (1.22, 106.16)], and Roman Catholic [aRR 3.99 (1.34, 11.88)] and Anglican [aRR 2.78 (0.89, 8.65); infant mortality to no breastfeeding [aRR 11.85 (6.15, 22.83)], Micronesian [aRR 5.54 (1.67, 18.35)], and higher birth order [aRR 2.00 (1.03, 3.88)]; child mortality to multiple gestation [aRR 6.15 (2.08, 18.18)], Polynesian [aRR 5.80 (2.48, 13.53)], and Micronesian [aRR 3.65 (1.46, 9.10)], cigarette and tobacco [aRR 1.77 (0.79, 3.96)] and marijuana use [aRR 1.94 (0.43, 8.73)] and rural residence [aRR 1.85 (0.88, 3.92)]; under-five mortality to no breastfeeding [aRR 8.65 (4.97, 15.05)], Polynesian [aRR 3.23 (1.09, 9.54)], Micronesian [aRR 5.60 (2.52, 12.46)], and multiple gestation [aRR 3.34 (1.26, 8.88)]. Proportions of 9% for neonatal and 8% of under-five mortality were attributable to no maternal tetanus vaccination.

Interpretation

Under-five mortality in the Solomon Islands from the SIDHS 2015 data was attributable to maternal health, behavioural, and sociodemographic risk factors. We recommended future studies to confirm these associations.

Funding

No funding was declared to support this study directly.

A Systematic Review of Factors Associated with Under-Five Child Mortality

Background

Preventing the life of the newborn and reducing the entrenched disparity of childhood mortality across different levels is one of the crucial public health problems, especially in underdeveloped and developing countries in the world. Sustainable development goals (SDGs)-3.2 is aimed at terminating all preventable under-five child mortality and shrinking it to 25 per 1000 live births or lower than this by 2030. Several factors have been shown to be linked with childhood mortality.

Objective

This review is aimed at pointing out the significant determinants related to under-five child mortality by a systematic review of the literature.

Methods

EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus database, and Google Scholar search engine were used for the systematic search of the literature. Special keywords and Boolean operators were used to point out the relevant studies for the review. Original research articles and peer-reviewed papers published in the English language till August 10, 2022, were included in the analysis and synthesis of the results. As per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, out of 299 studies identified from different sources, only 22 articles were ascertained for this study. Eligible articles were appraised in detail, and relevant information was extracted and then integrated into the systematic review.

Results

Mother's education, size of child at birth, age of mother at childbirth, place of residence, birth interval, sex of child, type of birth (single or multiple), and birth order, along with other socioeconomic, maternal, child, health facility utilization, and community level variables, were observed as important covariates of under-five mortality.

Conclusion

Women's education and easy access to quality healthcare facilities should be the apex priority to lessen childhood mortality.

Risk factors of under-five mortality in Ethiopia using count data regression models, 2021

Background

Despite the global reduction in under-five mortality, still many children die before their fifth birthday in Ethiopia. The main aim of this study was to identify determinants of under-five mortality using count data regression models based on 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data.

Methods

The data source for this study was the 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data. Various count data regression models were applied to identify the determinants of under-five mortality.

Results

A total of 5,535 mothers with children aged 0–59 months were included in the study. Of the total, 1,277 (23.07%) women had lost at least one child by death before celebrating fifth birthday. Zero-Inflated Poisson model was found to be the best model, and it revealed that mother's age, marital status, mother's age at 1st birth, place of delivery, current contraceptive type used, type of cooking fuel, residence, region, religion, time to get drinking water, number of children at home, birth order, and birth type were significant factors that determine U5 mortality in Ethiopia.

Mothers aged 15–24 years (IRR = 1.24, p = 0.007) and above 24 years (IRR = 1.66, p = 0.000) at their 1st births, mothers from rural area (IRR = 1.27, p = 0.000), mothers traveled for 1–30 min (IRR = 1.62, p = 0.000) and >30 min (IRR = 1.82, p = 0.000) to get drinking water, mothers used charcoal (IRR = 1.86, p = 0.009) and wood (IRR = 1.64, p = 0.033), children with birth order of 2nd-3rd (IRR = 3.91, p = 0.000), 4th -5th (IRR = 13.14, p = 0.000), 5th and above (IRR = 38.17, p = 0.000), and multiple born children (IRR = 1.5, p = 0.000) had higher risk of under-five mortality while mothers aged 25–34 years (IRR = 0.73, p = 0.000), unmarried mothers (IRR = 0.68, p = 0.004), mothers delivered in public health sectors (IRR = 0.59, p = 0.000), mothers used Pill/IUD (IRR = 0.64, p = 0.018), mothers who had 3 to 5 (IRR = 0.51, p = 0.000) and more than 5 (IRR = 0.27, p = 0.000) children at home had lower risk of under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Mothers should be encouraged to deliver at health institutions. Mothers also should be given awareness to use Pill/IUD contraceptive type. Moreover, facilitating rural areas to get electricity and drinking water near to homes helps to reduce the burden of U5M and to be in line with sustainable development goal.

•

Our study was an attempt to identify the risk factors for under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

•

We used 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and health Survey data.

•

Analyses were done using Statistical sofwares R, Stata, and SPSS.

•

Count Data Regression Models were employed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality.

•

The best model that fits the data well was selected using selection criterion like AIC, BIC.

•

Zero-Inflated Poisson model was found to fit the data well.

•

The study found that mother's age, marital status of mother, age of mother's at first birth, place of delivery, place of residence, time to get drinking water, number of children at home, birth order, type of birth were statistically significant determinants for under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

Machine Learning Algorithms for understanding the determinants of under-five Mortality

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality is a matter of serious concern for child health as well as the social development of any country. The paper aimed to find the accuracy of machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality and identify the most significant factors associated with under-five mortality.

METHOD

The data was taken from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-IV) of Uttar Pradesh. First, we used multivariate logistic regression due to its capability for predicting the important factors, then we used machine learning techniques such as decision tree, random forest, Naïve Bayes, K- nearest neighbor (KNN), logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and ridge classifier. Each model's accuracy was checked by a confusion matrix, accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, Cohen's Kappa, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Information gain rank was used to find the important factors for under-five mortality. Data analysis was performed using, STATA-16.0, Python 3.3, and IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 27.0 software.

RESULT

By applying the machine learning models, results showed that the neural network model was the best predictive model for under-five mortality when compared with other predictive models, with model accuracy of (95.29% to 95.96%), recall (71.51% to 81.03%), precision (36.64% to 51.83%), F1 score (50.46% to 62.68%), Cohen's Kappa value (0.48 to 0.60), AUROC range (93.51% to 96.22%) and precision-recall curve range (99.52% to 99.73%). The neural network was the most efficient model, but logistic regression also shows well for predicting under-five mortality with accuracy (94% to 95%)., AUROC range (93.4% to 94.8%), and precision-recall curve (99.5% to 99.6%). The number of living children, survival time, wealth index, child size at birth, birth in the last five years, the total number of children ever born, mother's education level, and birth order were identified as important factors influencing under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

The neural network model was a better predictive model compared to other machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality, but logistic regression analysis also shows good results. These models may be helpful for the analysis of high-dimensional data for health research.

Negative effects of short birth interval on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Methods

Eight databases, PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, Popline, and Maternity and Infant Care, were searched, covering the period of January 2000 to January 2022. Studies that had examined the association between SBI and any form of child mortality were included. The findings of the included studies were summarized through fixed-effects or random-effects meta-analysis and the model was selected based on the heterogeneity index.

Results

A total of 51 studies were included. Of them, 19 were conducted in Ethiopia, 10 in Nigeria and 7 in Bangladesh. Significant higher likelihoods of stillbirth (odds ratio (OR) = 2.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.32-3.38), early neonatal mortality (OR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.04-2.41), perinatal mortality (OR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.32-2.21), neonatal mortality (OR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.68-2.04), post-neonatal mortality (OR = 3.01; 95% CI = 1.43-6.33), infant mortality (OR = 1.92; 95% CI = 1.77-2.07), child mortality (OR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.27-2.19) and under-five mortality (OR = 1.95; 95% CI = 1.56-2.44) were found among babies born in short birth intervals than those who born in normal intervals.

Conclusions

SBI significantly increases the risk of child mortality in LMICs. Programmes to reduce pregnancies in short intervals need to be expanded and strengthened. Reproductive health interventions aimed at reducing child mortality should include proper counselling on family planning, distribution of appropriate contraceptives and increased awareness of the adverse effects of SBI on maternal and child health.

Factors associated with post-neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey

Background

Post-neonatal mortality is the number of deaths of infants aged 28 days through 11 months and is expressed as post-neonatal deaths per 1000 live births per year. This study aimed to identify the factors that influence post-neonatal death using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey (EMDHS2019).

Methods

The study included 2126 post neonates born from mothers who had been interviewed about births in the five years before the survey. The survey gathering period was carried out from March 21, 2019, to June 28, 2019. The data were first analyzed with a chi-square test of association, and then relevant factors were evaluated with binary logistic regression models and the results were interpreted using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and confidence interval(CI) of parameters.

Results

The prevalence of post neonatal death was 16% (95% CI: 15.46, 17.78). The study also showed that not vaccinated post-neonates (AOR = 2.325, 95% CI: 1.784, 3.029), mothers who were not receiving any tetanus injection (AOR = 2.891, 95% CI: 2.254, 3.708), mothers age group 15-24(AOR = 1.836, 95% CI: 1.168, 2.886), Afar (AOR = 2.868, 95% CI: 1.264, 6.506), Somali(AOR = 2.273, 95% CI: 1.029, 5.020), Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region(SNNP) (AOR = 2.619, 95% CI: 1.096, 6.257), 2–4 birth orders (AOR = 1.936, 95% CI: 1.225, 3.060), not attend antenatal care(ANC) visit (AOR = 6.491, 95% CI: 3.928, 10.726), and preceding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 1.755, 95% CI: 1.363,2.261) statistically associated with a higher risk of post neonatal death. Although not given anything other than breast milk (AOR = 0.604, 95% CI 0.462, 0.789), urban residents (AOR = 0.545, 95% CI: 0.338, 0.877), single births (AOR = 0.150, 95% CI: 0.096, 0.234), less than 3 children in a family (AOR = 0.665, 95% CI 0.470, 0.939) and the head of the male household (AOR = 0.442, 95% CI: 0.270, 0.724) were statistically associated with a lower risk of post-neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

It is highly suggested that maternal and child health care services (including antenatal care visits, postnatal care visits, and immunization) be strengthened and monitored during the early stages of infancy. Mothers from Somali, Afar, and SNNP regions, as well as multiple births, rural residents, and those giving birth to a child with a birth gap of fewer than 24 months, demand special care.

Determinants of under-five mortality in Indonesia: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate for infants and children under five in Indonesia is an ongoing challenge for the government, with figures exceeding the targets set for the country by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to discover the factors causing under-five mortality in Indonesia.

METHODS

This study will employ a cross-sectional study design with data sourced from the 2017 Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) between July and September 2017. The sample included 10,014 women who had given birth in the five years prior to the survey. The data was analyzed using Binary logistic regression with a significance level of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The significant factors relating to under-five mortality in Indonesia are: mother's age at birth (AOR = 2.04; 95% CI 95% = 1.11-3.77); birth weight (AOR = 7.60; 95% CI 95% = 5.17-11.19); the sex of the child (AOR = 1.80; 95% CI 95% = 1.28-2.52); frequency of using the internet (AOR = 1.13; 95% CI 95% = 0.02-0.95); residence (AOR = 0.64; 95% CI 95% = 0.33-0.94); and birth interval (AOR = 0.52; 95% CI 95% = 0.29-0.92). Birth weight is the more likely cause for under-five mortality in Indonesia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the characteristics of mothers, children, the area of residence, and the behavior of the mother affect the under-five mortality.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Pediatric nurses can have a role to play in developing knowledge about health for both mothers and families. Additionally, accessible health education on issues from planning a pregnancy to childcare should be promoted in both rural and urban areas as well as a campaign on proper hygiene practices.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cancer in Children Younger Than 5 Years, 1990-2019: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the burden and variation trends of cancers in children under 5 years at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Epidemiological data for children under 5 years who were diagnosed with any one childhood cancer were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) from 1990 to 2019. The outcomes were the absolute numbers and rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for different types of cancer.

RESULTS

In 2019, 8,774,979.1 incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 6,243,599.2 to11,737,568.5) and 8,956,583.8 (6,446,323.9 to 12,364,520.8) prevalent cases of cancer in children under 5 years were identified worldwide; these cancers resulted in 44,451.6 (36,198.7 to 53,905.9) deaths and 3,918,014.8 (3,196,454.9 to 4,751,304.2) DALYs. From 1990 to 2019, although the numbers of incident and prevalent cases only decreased by -4.6% (-7.0 to -2.2) and -8.3% (-12.6 to -3.4), respectively, the numbers of deaths and DALYs clearly declined by -47.8% (-60.7 to -26.4) and -47.7% (-60.7 to -26.2), respectively. In 2019, the middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions had the highest incidence and prevalence, whereas the low SDI regions had the most mortality and DALYs. Although all of the SDI regions displayed a steady drop in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019, the low-middle and low SDI regions showed increasing trends of incidence and prevalence. Leukemia remained the most common cancer globally in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the burdens of leukemia, liver cancer, and Hodgkin's lymphoma declined, whereas the incidence and prevalence of other cancers grew, particularly testicular cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The global childhood cancer burden in young children has been steadily decreasing over the past three decades. However, the burdens and other characteristics have varied across different regions and types of cancers. This highlights the need to reorient current treatment strategies and establish effective prevention methods to reduce the global burden of childhood cancer.

Trends of under-five mortality and associated risk factors in Zambia: a multi survey analysis between 2007 and 2018

BACKGROUND

Mortality at a young age is key to public health measures. This study aims to describe the burden, trend, and associated factors of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Zambia from 2007-to-2018.

METHOD

A sample of 29,274 children under-five were analyzed from the Zambia demographic and health survey (ZDHS). Univariate and bivariate analysis were used to identify factors influencing U5M.

RESULT

Pooled prevalence of U5MR in Zambia was 84.4/ 1000 live-births. Over 15 years, U5M has declined by 49% (from 118.7 to 60.5/1000 live-births). Compared to children of teenage (≤19 years) mothers the likelihood of U5M was lower by 24 to 37% among children of 20 to 34 years old mothers. The likelihood of U5M was lower by 23% (AOR, 0.77 95%CI, 0.58-1.04) for poorest, 27% (AOR, 0.73 95%CI, 0.55-0.98) for poorer, and 19% (AOR, 0.81 95%CI, 0.62-1.07) for middle as compared to the richest households. The likelihood of U5M was 21% (AOR, 0.79 95%CI, 0.67-0.93) lower among rural residents. Multiple-born children died 2.54 times (95%CI, 1.95-3.98) higher than the single-born. Male children (AOR, 1.28, 95% CI, 1.23-1.46), smaller than average birth size (AOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.52-2.09), and no ANC visit (AOR, 3.17, 95% CI, 2.74-3.67) were associated with U5M. The likelihoods of U5M were significantly higher in the Eastern, Luapula, and Muchinga regions than in the Central.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that Zambia has made a gain on child survival. Further efforts targeting mothers, children, and provinces are needed to scale up the decline and achieve the SDG3.

The effects of community clustering on under-five mortality in India: a parametric shared frailty modelling approach

The study of the effect of community clustering of under-five mortality has its implications in both research and policy. Studies have shown the contribution of community factors on under-five mortality. However, these studies did not account for censoring. We examine the presence of community dependencies and determine the risk factors of under-five mortality in India and its six state-regions by employing a Weibull hazard model with gamma shared frailty. We considered every possible way to ensure that the frailty models used in the study are not merely a consequence of how the data are organized rather than representing a substantive assumption about the source of the frailty. Data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey has been used. The study found that except for south India, children born in the same community in India and the other five state-regions shared similar characteristics of under-five mortality. The risk of under-five mortality decreased with an increase in mother’s schooling. Except for northern region, female births were less likely to die within first five years of life. We found a U-shaped relationship between preceding birth interval and under-five mortality. History of sibling’s death, multiple births and low-birthweight significantly increases the risk of under-five mortality in all the six state-regions. The Hindu–Muslim mortality gaps and Scheduled Caste or Tribe’s mortality disadvantage is diminishing. Since the factors associated with under-five mortality were not necessarily the same across the six state-regions of India, adopting a uniform approach in dealing with under-five mortality in India may not benefit all the regions equally.

Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES

We used machine learning algorithms to track how the ranks of importance and the survival outcome of four socioeconomic determinants (place of residence, mother's level of education, wealth index and sex of the child) of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in sub-Saharan Africa have evolved.

SETTINGS

This work consists of multiple cross-sectional studies. We analysed data from the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) collected from four countries; Uganda, Zimbabwe, Chad and Ghana, each randomly selected from the four subregions of sub-Saharan Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Each country has multiple DHS datasets and a total of 11 datasets were selected for analysis. A total of n=85 688 children were drawn from the eleven datasets.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

The primary outcome variable is U5MR; the secondary outcomes were to obtain the ranks of importance of the four socioeconomic factors over time and to compare the two machine learning models, the random survival forest (RSF) and the deep survival neural network (DeepSurv) in predicting U5MR.

RESULTS

Mother's education level ranked first in five datasets. Wealth index ranked first in three, place of residence ranked first in two and sex of the child ranked last in most of the datasets. The four factors showed a favourable survival outcome over time, confirming that past interventions targeting these factors are yielding positive results. The DeepSurv model has a higher predictive performance with mean concordance indexes (between 67% and 80%), above 50% compared with the RSF model.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reveals that children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa have favourable survival outcomes associated with the four socioeconomic factors over time. It also shows that deep survival neural network models are efficient in predicting U5MR and should, therefore, be used in the big data era to draft evidence-based policies to achieve the third sustainable development goal.

Survival time discrepancy among under-five-year children of rural parts of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia is ranked as the fifth of heavy under-five death burdened countries with the highest burden in its rural areas. This study aimed to identify the determinants of under-five deaths in rural parts of Ethiopia.

STUDY DESIGN

A population-based cross-sectional study.

METHODS

The data for this study was extracted from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive analysis, non-parametric estimation, and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to examine the determinants of under-five mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 7301 under-five eligible children from rural areas were involved in this survey, and 6.5% of the cases were passed away before reaching their fifth birthday. Male children's death accounted for 59.7% of the death rate in the participants. An estimated median survival time was 31 months [95% CI: 30-32]. About 83% of children's death occurred among children delivered at home. Cox proportional hazard regression model revealed that gender, delivery-place, family-size, mother's education, number of children, contraceptive use, and source of drinking water had significant effects on survival time of under-five children. Under-five mortality was significantly fewer in female children (HR  =  0.728; 95% CI: 0.606-0.875, P =  0.001), children delivered at health facilities (HR  =  0.738; 95% CI: 0.572-0.951, P =  0.019), and those from secondary and above educated mothers (HR  =  0.464; 95% CI: 0.301-0.714, P =  0.001), compared to the reference category.

CONCLUSION

Significant risk factors were associated with under-five mortality in rural areas. Delivering in health facilities, uses of contraceptives, mother's education, and improvement of infrastructures should be areas of concern to decrease under-five children's deaths.

Modern Contraceptive Methods Predict Hemoglobin Levels Among Women of Childbearing Age from DHS 2016

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to study the association of different modern contraceptive methods and anemia on women of childbearing age.

METHODS

The study was conducted based on secondary data from Ethiopia demographic and health surveys (EDHS) in 2016. The study included 12,981, women of childbearing age. The dependent variable is anemia which was defined based on the level of hemoglobin concentration, and was classified as non-anemic (above 12 g/dL) or anemic (below 12 g/dL). The association between anemia with modern contraceptive method and BMI was analyzed using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 12,891 non-pregnant women were recruited for this study, 26.3% (95% CI: 25.9 to 27.1) had anemia, and hemoglobin level was 12.9 ± 1.7. The current use of modern contraceptives has substantially reduced the odds of anemia by 50% compared with non-users. Compared to barrier methods, individual modern contraceptive use showed higher odds ratio of, oral contraceptive pills (OCP) 0.6 (95% CI: 0.45 to 1.12), injectables 0.59 (95% CI: 0.24 to 1.79), implant 0.72 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.86) and significantly reduces the risk of anemia. In addition to the contraceptive method, BMI found to improve anemia and the underweight women showed significant effect on an anemia (OR 2.20 (95% CI 1.58-2. 62)) P = 0.000.

CONCLUSION

The use of hormonal contraceptive methods reduces anemia among women of childbearing age. Moreover, there is an association between BMI and anemia.

Background predictors of time to death in infancy: evidence from a survival analysis of the 2018 Nigeria DHS data

Background

Nigeria’s child health profile is quite concerning with an infant mortality rate of 67 deaths per 1000 live births and a significant slowing down in progress towards improving child health outcomes. Nigeria’s 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests several bio-demographic risk factors for child death, including mother’s poor education, poverty, sex of child, age of mother, and location (rural vs urban) but studies are yet to explore the predictive power of these variables on infant survival in Nigeria.

Methods

The study extracted data for all births in the last 12 months preceding the 2018 Nigeria DHS and used the Cox proportional hazard model to predict infant survival in Nigeria. Failure in this analysis is death with two possible outcomes – dead/alive – while the survival time variable is age at death. We censored infants who were alive at the time of the study on the day of the interview. Covariates in the analysis were: age of mother, education of mother, wealth quintile, sex of child, location, region, place of delivery, and age of pregnancy.

Results

The study found that a higher education of a mother compared to no education (β = .429; p-value < 0.05); belonging to a household in the richer wealth quintile (β = .618; p-value < 0.05) or the highest quintile (β = .553; p-value < 0.05), compared to the lowest wealth quintile; and living in North West (β = 1.418; p-value < 0.05) or South East zone (β = 1.711; p-value < 0.05), significantly predict infant survival.

Conclusion

Addressing Nigeria’s infant survival problem requires interventions that give attention to the key drivers – education, socio-economic status, and socio-cultural contextual issues. We therefore recommend full implementation of the universal basic education policy, and child health education programs targeted at mothers as long- and short-term solutions to the problem of poor child health outcomes in Nigeria. We also argue in favor of better use of evidence in policy and program development in Nigeria.

Time to death and its determinants among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa using the recent (2010-2018) demographic and health survey data: country-based shared frailty analyses

Background

Substantial global progress has been made in reducing under-five mortality since 1990, yet progress is insufficient to meet the sustainable development goal of 2030 which calls for ending preventable child deaths. There are disproportional survivals among children in the world. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries using the recent DHS data.

Methods

The data was retrieved from the birth record file from the standard Demographic and Health Survey dataset of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Countries that have at least one survey between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed.

Results

A total of 27,221 (7.35%) children were died before celebrating their fifth birthday. Children at an early age were at higher risk of dying and then decrease proportionally with increased age. The risk of death among rich and middle family were lowered by 18 and 8% (AHR =0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and (AHR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) respectively, the hazard of death were 11, 19, 17, 90 and 55% (AHR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), (AHR = 1.11,95%CI:1.04-1.19), (AHR = 1.17, 95% CI:1.12-1.23), (AHR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.78-2.04) and (AHR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.47-1.63) higher than among children in rural, use unimproved water, delivered at home, born less than 18 months and between 18 and 23 months birth intervals respectively. The hazard of death was 7% among females and low birth weights (AHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 – 0.97) and (AHR = 0.93 95%CI: 0.89-0.97) respectively. There was also a significant association between multiple births and birth orders (AHR = 2.11, 95%CI: 2.51 – 2.90), (AHR = 3.01, 95%CI: 2.85-3.19) respectively.

Conclusions

Death rate among under-five children was higher at an early age then decreases as age advanced. Wealth status, residence, water source, place of delivery, sex of the child, plurality, birth size, preceding birth interval, and birth order were the most predictor variables. The health care program should be designed to encourage a healthy family structure. The health care providers should intervene in the community to inspire maternal health services.

Incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa using multilevel Weibull regression modeling

BACKGROUND

In 2017, an estimated 5.3 million under-five children died annually in Sub-Saharan African countries, more than half of those deaths occurred in East Africa. Though East African countries share the huge burden of global under-five mortality, there is limited evidence on the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study investigated the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was done based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries conducted from 2008 to 2019. A total weighted sample of 138,803 live births within 5 years preceding the survey were included for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were done to assess the children's survival experience across variable categories. The Global Schoenfeld residual test was employed for checking Proportional Hazard (PH) assumptions and it was violated (p-value< 0.05). Considering the hierarchical nature of DHS data, multilevel parametric survival models were fitted. Model comparison was made by AIC, deviance, and shape of the hazard function. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multilevel Weibull regression analysis, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to declare the significant predictors of under-five mortality.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality rate in East Africa was 51.318 (95% CI: 51.311, 51.323) per 1000 live births. Babies born to mothers attained secondary education and above (AHR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being 2nd - 4th birth order (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.67), ≥ 5th birth order (AHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.76), health facility delivery (AHR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.93), 1-3 ANC visit (AHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.68), births interval of 24-48 months (AHR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.57), wanted pregnancy (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.76), middle wealth status (AHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.97), and richest wealth status (AHR = 0.81, 95% CI:0.73, 0.90) were significantly associated with lower hazards of under-five mortality. Whereas, advanced maternal age (≥35 years) (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.24),, babies born to household who did not have media exposure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.20), twin births (AHR = 3.81, 95% CI: 3.52, 4.12), being male child (AHR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.21, 1.33), small birth size at birth (AHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.63, 1.84), and large size at birth (AHR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.11) were significantly associated with higher hazards of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality is a major public health concern in East African countries. Health facility delivery, ANC visit, higher wealth status, adequate birth spacing, wanted pregnancy, and maternal education were significantly correlated with a lower risk of under-5 mortality. Whereas, higher birth order, small or large size at birth, male birth, twin birth, advanced maternal age and mothers who didn't have media exposure were significantly correlated with a higher risk of under-five mortality. This study highlights that public health programs should enhance health facility delivery, ANC visit, media exposure, maternal education, and adequate birth spacing to decrease the incidence of under-five mortality in East Africa.

Determinant factors of under-five mortality in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's region (SNNPR), Ethiopia

Background

Child mortality is a key indicator of the performance of the health system of a nation. Impressive progress in the reduction of under-five mortality has been made in Ethiopia. However, still there are some regions where the under-five mortality rates are high. Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) is among those regions in Ethiopia with high under-five mortality rates. This study aimed to identify the determinant factors of under-five mortality in SNNPR.

Methods

Data used for the study were drawn from the 2016 EDHS. A total of 1277 under-five children were included in the study. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify determinant factors associated with under-five mortality.

Results

Children with second or third birth order (OR = 1.316, 95% CI: (1.097, 2.343)), fourth or fifth birth order (OR = 1.934, 95% CI: (1.678, 3.822)), sixth or above birth order (OR = 3.980, 95% CI: (2.352, 6.734)) were significantly associated with increased risk of under-five mortality as compared to those with first birth order. Increased risk of under-five mortality was also significantly associated with a family size of five or more (OR = 3.397, 95% CI: (1.702, 6.782)) as compared to the family size of less than five; smaller size at birth (OR = 1.714, 95% CI: (1.120, 2.623)) as compared to larger size at birth; multiple births (OR = 1.472, 95% CI: (1.289, 2.746)) as compared to singletons. On the other hand, female children (OR = 0.552, 95% CI: (0.327, 0.932)), children born at health institutions (OR = 0.449, 95% CI: (0.228, 0.681)) and children who were breastfed (OR = 0.657, 95% CI: (0.393, 0.864)) were significantly associated with decreased risk of under-five mortality as compared to male children, those born at home and those who were not breastfed respectively.

Conclusions

Sex of a child, birth order, size of a child at birth, place of delivery, birth type, breastfeeding status, and family size were significant factors associated with under-five mortality in SNNPR, Ethiopia. Thus, planning and implementing relevant strategies that focus on those identified determinant factors of under-five mortality is required for the improvement of child survival in SNNPR, Ethiopia.

Individual and Contextual Factors Associated with Malaria among Children 6-59 Months in Nigeria: A Multilevel Mixed Effect Logistic Model Approach

Background/Purpose: Over the last two decades, malaria has remained a major public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries leading to high morbidity and mortality among children. Nigeria is the world most burdened malaria endemic nation, contributing more than a quarter of global malaria cases. This study determined the prevalence of malaria among children at 6–59 months in Nigeria, and the effects of individual and contextual factors. Methods: This study utilized data from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) involving a weighted sample size of 10,185 children who were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Given the hierarchical structure of the data set, such that children at Level-1 were nested in communities at Level-2, and nested in states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) at Level-3, multilevel mixed effect logistic regression models were used for the analysis. Results: The proportion of children 6–59 months of age in Nigeria that had malaria fever positive as assessed by RDTs was 35.5% (3418/10,185), (CI: 33.9–37.1). Kebbi State had 77.7%, (CI: 70.2–83.5), which was the highest proportion of 6–59 months who were malaria positive, next in line was Katsina State with 55.5%, (CI: 47.7–63.1). The Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja had the proportion of 29.6%, (CI: 21.6–39.0), malaria positive children of 6–59 months of age. Children between the age of 48 and 59 months were 2.68 times more likely to have malaria fever than children of ages 6–11 months (AOR = 2.68, 95% CI: 2.03–3.54). In addition, children from the rural area (AOR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.75–2.57), were more likely to suffer from malaria infection compared to children from urban area. Conclusion: The study identified some individual and contextual predictors of malaria among children in Nigeria. These factors identified in this study are potential areas that need to be considered for policy designs and implementations toward control and total elimination of malaria-related morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria.

Under-5 Mortality and Its Associated Factors in Northern Nigeria: Evidence from 22,455 Singleton Live Births (2013-2018)

The northern geopolitical zones (NGZs) continue to report the highest under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) among Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. This study was designed to identify factors related to under-5 mortality (U5M) in the NGZs. The NGZ populations extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey were explored to assess the factors associated with U5M using logistic regression, generalised linear latent, and mixed models. Between 2013 and 2018, the northwest geopolitical zone reported the highest U5MR (179 deaths per 1000 live births; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 163-194). The adjusted model showed that geopolitical zone, poor household, paternal occupation, perceived children's body size at birth, caesarean delivery, and mothers and fathers' education were highly associated with increased odds of U5M. Other significant factors that influenced U5M included children of fourth or higher birth order with shorter interval ≤ 2 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.68; CI: 1.42-1.90) and mothers who did not use contraceptives (aOR = 1.41, CI: 1.13-1.70). Interventions are needed and should primarily spotlight children residing in low-socioeconomic households. Educating mothers on the benefits of contraceptive use, child spacing, timely and safe caesarean delivery and adequate care for small-sized babies may also reduce U5M in Nigeria, particularly in the NGZs.

Trends in under-five mortality rate disaggregated across five inequality dimensions in Ghana between 1993 and 2014

OBJECTIVES

Globally, there has been a considerable decline in under-five mortality in the past years. However, it remains a critical issue among low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In Ghana, under-five mortality is a critical public health issue that requires national interventions. In the present study, we examined the trends of under-five mortality in Ghana from 1993 to 2014.

METHODS

Using the World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit, we analyzed data from the 1993-2014 Ghana Demographic and Health surveys. We disaggregated the under-five mortality rate by five equity stratifiers: wealth index, education, sex, place, and region of residence. We measured the inequality through summary measures, namely difference, population attributable risk, ratio and population attributable fraction.

RESULTS

In 1993, under-five mortality among children in poor households (172.90, uncertainty intervals [UIs = 153.21-194.53]) was more than twice the proportion of children from the richest households who died before their 5th birthday (74.96; UI = 60.31-92.81) and this trend continued until 2008. However, in 2014, the poorest had the lowest rate (30.91, UI = 78.70-104.80). Children of women with no formal education consistently recorded the highest burden of under-five mortality. Although in 2014 the gap appeared to have narrowed, children of mothers with no formal education record the highest under-five mortality rate (91.61; UI = 79.73-105.07) compared with those with secondary or higher education (54.34; UI = 46.24-63.77). Under-five mortality was higher among rural residents throughout the years. Men repeatedly had the greatest share of under-five mortality with the highest prevalence occurring in 1993 (137.52; UI = 123.51-152.85) and the lowest occurring in 2014 (77.40; UI = 69.15-86.54). The Northern region consistently accounted for the greatest proportion of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Ghana has experienced a decline in under-five mortality from 1993 to 2014. Context-specific appropriate interventions are necessary for various disadvantaged sub-populations with risks of health disparities.

Mediation role of low birth weight on the factors associated with newborn mortality and the moderation role of institutional delivery in the association of low birth weight with newborn mortality in a resource-poor setting

OBJECTIVES

To assess low birth weight's (LBW) mediation role on the factors associated with newborn mortality (NM), including stillbirth and the role of institutional delivery in the association between LBW and NM.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

I used the 2011-2015 event histories health demographic data collected by Iganga-Mayuge Health Demographic and Surveillance Site (HDSS). The dataset consisted of 10 758 registered women whose birth occurred at least 22 weeks of the gestation period and records of newborns' living status 28 days after delivery.

SETTING

The Iganga-Mayuge HDSS is in Eastern Uganda, which routinely collects health and demographic data from a registered population of at least 100 000 people.

OUTCOME MEASURE

The study's key outcomes or endogenous factors were perinatal mortality (PM), late NM and LBW (mediating factor).

RESULTS

The factors that were directly associated with PM were LBW (OR=2.55, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.67)), maternal age of 30+ years (OR=1.68, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.33), rural residence (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.85), mothers with previous experience of NM (OR=3.95, 95% CI 2.86 to 5.46) and mothers with no education level (OR=1.63, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.18). Multiple births and mother's prior experience of NM were positively associated with NM at a later age. Institutional delivery had a modest inverse role in the association of LBW with PM. LBW mediated the association of PM with residence status, mothers' previous NM experience, multiple births, adolescent mothers and mothers' marital status. Of the total effect attributable to each of these factors, LBW mediated +25%, +22%, +100%, 25% and -38% of rural resident mothers, mothers with previous experience of newborn or pregnancy loss, multiple births, adolescent mothers and mothers with partners, respectively.

CONCLUSION

LBW mediated multiple factors in the NM pathways, and the effect of institutional delivery in reducing mortality among LBW newborns was insignificant. The findings demonstrate the need for a holistic life course approach that gears the health systems to tackle NM.

Count Models Analysis of Factors Associated with Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia

Background. Under-five mortality has continued a key challenge to public health in Ethiopia, and other sub-Saharan Africa countries. The threat of under-five mortality is incessant and more studies are needed to generate new scientific evidence. This study aimed to model the number of under-five deaths a mother has experienced in her lifetime and factors associated with it in Ethiopia. Method. A retrospective cross-sectional study based on data obtained from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), 2016 was used. The response variable was the total number of under-five children died per mother in her lifetime. Variables such as maternal socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, health, and environmental factors were considered as risk factors of under-five mortality. Hurdle negative binomial (HNB) regression analysis was employed to determine the factors associated with under-five mortality. Results. The data showed that 27.2% (95%CI: 0263, 0.282) of women experienced under-five deaths. The study revealed the age of mother at first birth, the age of mother at the time of under-five mortality occurred, number of household members, household access to electricity, region, educational level of the mother, sex of household head, wealth index, mother residing with husband/partner at the time of under-five mortality occurred as factors associated with under-five mortality. Age of mother at first birth 18 to 24 (IRR = .663; 95%CI: 0.587, 0.749), 25 or higher years old (IRR = 0.424; 95%CI: 0.306, 0.588), access to electricity (IRR = 0.758; 95%CI: 0.588, 0.976), primary education level of the mother (IRR = 0.715; 95%CI: 0.584, 0.875) and the richer wealth index (IRR = 0.785; 95%CI: 0.624, 0.988) were associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality controlling for other variables in the model. Whereas older age of mother 35 to 39 (IRR = 5.252; 95%CI: 2.992, 9.218), 40 to 44 (IRR = 7.429; 95%CI: 4.188, 13.177), 45 to 49 (IRR = 8.697; 95%CI: 4.853, 15.585), being a resident of the Benishangul-gumuz region (IRR = 1.781; 95%CI: 1.303, 2.434), female household head (IRR = 1.256; 95%CI: 1.034, 1.525) were associated with an increased incidence of under-five mortality. Conclusion. The findings suggested that early age of mothers’ at first birth and old ages of mothers’, female household head and being uneducated were found to increase the incidence of the under-five mortality, whereas access to electricity and living with husband was statistically associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality. The implication of this study is that policymakers and stakeholders should provide health education for mothers not to give birth at an earlier age and improve living standards to achieve sustainable development goals.

Risk factor of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: multilevel analysis of 2016 Demographic and Health Survey

Background

In sub-Saharan African countries, neonatal mortality rates remain unacceptably high. Ethiopia is one of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest death rates of newborn children. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in Ethiopia at the individual and community level.

Methods

The 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data was accessed and used for the analysis. A total of 2449 newborn children were included in the analysis. The multilevel logistic regression model was used to identify the significant factor of neonatal mortality. Adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05 in the multilevel model was reported.

Results

A total of 2449 newborn children were included in this study. Multiple birth type (AOR = 3.18; 95% CI 2.78, 3.63), birth order of ≥ 5 (AOR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.75, 2.64), pre-term birth (AOR = 5.97; 95% CI 4.96, 7.20), no antenatal care (ANC) visit during pregnancy (AOR = 2.33; 95% CI 2.09, 2.61), not received TT injection during pregnancy (AOR = 2.28; 95% CI 1.92, 2.71), delivered at home (AOR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.48, 2.69), less than 24 months of preceding birth interval (AOR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.35,1.68), smaller birth size (AOR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.46, 1.71), never breastfeeding (AOR = 2.43; 95% CI 2.17, 2.72), poor wealth index (AOR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.17,1.41), non-educated mothers (AOR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.46, 1.71), non-educated fathers (AOR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.12, 1.54), rural residence (AOR = 2.71; 95% CI 2.23, 3.29), unprotected water source (AOR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.16, 1.58), and have no latrine facility (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50, 2.12) were associated with a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Neonates living in Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Harari, and Dire Dawa had a higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to Tigray. Moreover, the random effects result showed that about 85.57% of the variation in neonatal mortality was explained by individual- and community-level factors.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that attention be paid to education-based programs for mothers that would highlight the benefits of delivery care services, such as ANC visits, TT injections, and facility births. Meanwhile, public health initiatives should focus on expanding access to quality sanitation facilities, especially for latrines and drinking water that could improve neonatal health at the community-level as a whole.

Statistical Modeling of Determinants of Anemia Prevalence among Children Aged 6-59 Months in Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

Childhood anemia remains a significant public health challenge in developing countries, and it has negative consequences on the growth of the children. Therefore, it is essential to identify the determinants of childhood anemia, as these will help in formulating appropriate health policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. This study aims to assess and model the determinants of the prevalence of anemia among children aged 6–59 months in Nigeria. To accomplish the aims of the study, the authors applied single-level and multilevel binary logistic regression models.

Methods

To measure the relative impact of individual and household-level factors for childhood anemia among children aged 6–59 months, this study undertakes data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys with both binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models. The fit of the model was assessed by Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, variance inflation factor, and likelihood ratio tests.

Results

The study established that about 67.01% of the children were anemic and identified sex of children, mother's education, religion, household wealth status, total children ever born, age of children, place of residence, and region to have a statistical significant effect on the prevalence of anemia. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for anemia was 0.56 (95% CI = 0.50, 0.63) in children aged from 24 to 42 months and 0.40 (95% CI = 0.36, 0.45) in children aged from 43 to 59 months. Also, children who reside in certain geographical-political zones of Nigeria are associated with increased childhood anemia.

Conclusion

This study has highlighted the high prevalence of childhood anemia in Nigeria and indicated the need to improve mothers' education and regional variations. Findings from this study can help policymakers and public health institutions to map out programs targeting these regions as a measure of tackling the prevalence of anemia among the Nigerian populace.

Factors Affecting Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Model

Purpose

Even though remarkable declines in under-five mortality rates noticed globally, nearly 5.6 million children still die annually before celebrating their fifth birthday. The 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) report revealed that 67 children per 1000 live births died before the fifth birthday. This study aimed at determining factors affecting under-five mortality in Ethiopia using EDHS, 2016.

Materials and Methods

The data were retrieved from the EDHS 2016, and a total weighted number of 11,023 under-five children were included. Descriptive statistics were reported using tables, graphs, and texts. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was fitted, and adjusted incidence rate (ARR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and a p-value <0.05 were reported. The deviance test was used to check the goodness of fit.

Results

Mother attained higher education (ARR=0.25, 95% CI: 0.10–0.66), female-headed household (ARR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.05–1.66), age of household head (AIRR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03,1.11), preceding birth interval ≥48 months (ARR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.42–0.61), child who had history of diarrhea (ARR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.08–1.41), multiple birth type (ARR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.34–2.42), mothers who delivered in health facility (ARR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.73,0.94), residents of Addis Ababa (ARR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.28–0.98), and Amhara region (ARR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.88) were statistically significant with the number of under-five mortality.

Conclusion

In this study, under-five mortality remains a public health problem in Ethiopia. Educational status of the mother, women delivered at health institution, preceding birth interval 24–35 and ≥48, and residents of Addis Ababa reduced the incidence of under-five mortality. On the other hand, being a female household head, age of mother at first giving birth, being employed, having multiple births, and childhood diarrhea were associated with a higher incidence of under-five mortality. This finding suggests that enhancing opportunities to female education, addressing regional disparities, and encouraging mothers to deliver at health institutions will help to reduce the burden of under-five mortality.

Proximate, intermediate, and distal predictors of under-five mortality in Chad: analysis of the 2014-15 Chad demographic and health survey data

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality in Chad reached a minimum value of 119 deaths per 1000 live births in 2018, compared with a maximum of 250 in 1972. Despite this decline in the  mortality trend, for every six children in Chad, one dies before the age of five. This study, therefore, investigated the proximate, intermediate, and distal determinants of under-five mortality in Chad.

METHODS

We used data from the 2014-15 Chad's Demographic and Health Survey. Data of 7782 children below 5 years were used for the study. Both descriptive and multivariable hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed. Statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality was found to be 130 deaths per 1000 live births in Chad, with variations across the various population sub-groups. For distal predictors, the likelihood of death was higher in children born in the FChari Baguirmi region (AOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 1.81-8.14). Children whose mothers belonged to the Baguirmi/Barma ethnic group (AOR = 8.04, 95% CI: 1.75-36.99) were more likely to die before the age of five. On the contrary, the likelihood of under-five mortality was low among children born in rural areas (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97). With the intermediate predictors, the likelihood of under-five deaths was higher among children whose mothers had no formal education (AOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.06-2.77). Regarding the proximate predictors, the odds of under-five deaths was higher among male children (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.05-1.63) and first rank children (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.21).

CONCLUSION

The study found that the determinants of under-five mortality in Chad are region of residence, place of residence, ethnicity, education, sex of child, and birth rank. These findings show that both socio-economic and proximate factors explain the disparities in under-five mortality in Chad. The identification of these factors can be pivotal towards the design of evidence-based interventions intended to improve child survival. Therefore, improving maternal education while refocusing and re-packaging existing strategies to target selected sub-regional populations with high under-five mortality is urgently required.

Inequities in child survival in Nigerian communities during the Sustainable Development Goal era: insights from analysis of 2016/2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey

BACKGROUND

Child survival is a major concern in Nigeria, as it contributes 13% of the global under-five mortalities. Although studies have examined the determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria, the comparative roles of social determinants of health at the different stages of early childhood development have not been concurrently investigated. This study, therefore, aimed to identify the social determinants of age-specific childhood (0-59 months) mortalities, which are disaggregated into neonatal mortality (0-27 days), post-neonatal mortality (1-11 months) and child mortality (12-59 months), and estimate the within-and between-community variations of mortality among under-five children in Nigeria. This study provides evidence to guide stakeholders in planning for effective child survival strategies in the Nigerian communities during the Sustainable Development Goals era.

METHODS

Using the 2016/2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, we performed multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis on data of a nationally representative sample of 29,786 (weighted = 30,960) live births delivered 5 years before the survey to 18,497 women aged 15-49 years and nested within 16,151 households and 2227 communities.

RESULTS

Determinants of under-five mortality differ across the neonatal, post-neonatal and toddler/pre-school stages in Nigeria. Unexpectedly, attendance of skilled health providers during delivery was associated with an increased neonatal mortality risk, although its effect disappeared during post-neonatal and toddler/pre-school stages. Also, our study found maternal-level factors such as maternal education, contraceptive use, maternal wealth index, parity, death of previous children, and quality of perinatal care accounted for high variation (39%) in childhood mortalities across the communities. The inclusion of other compositional and contextual factors had no significant additional effect on childhood mortality risks across the communities.

CONCLUSION

This study reinforces the importance of maternal-level factors in reducing childhood mortality, independent of the child, household, and community-level characteristics in the Nigerian communities. To tackle childhood mortalities in the communities, government-led strategies should prioritize implementation of community-based and community-specific interventions aimed at improving socioeconomic conditions of women. Training and continuous mentoring with adequate supervision of skilled health workers must be ensured to improve the quality of perinatal care in Nigeria.

Bayesian frailty modeling of correlated survival data with application to under-five mortality

Background

There is high rate of under-five mortality in West Africa with little effort made to study determinants that significantly increase or decrease its risk across the West African sub-region. This is important since it will help in the design of effective intervention programs for each country or the entire region. The overall objective of this research evaluates the determinants of under-five mortality prior to the end of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals, to guide West African countries implement strategies that will aid them achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030.

Method

This study used the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from twelve (12) out of the eighteen West African countries; Ghana, Benin, Cote d’ Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Gambia and Togo. Data were extracted from the children and women of reproductive age files as provided in the DHS report. The response or outcome variable of interest is under-five mortality rate. A Bayesian exponential, Weibull and Gompertz regression models via a gamma shared frailty model were used for the analysis. The deviance information criteria and Bayes factors were used to discriminate between models. These analyses were carried out using Stata version 15 software.

Results

The study recorded 101 (95% CI: 98.6–103.5) deaths per 1000 live births occurring among the twelve countries. Burkina Faso (124.4), Cote D’lvoire (110.1), Guinea (116.4), Nigeria (120.6) and Niger (118.3) recorded the highest child under-5 mortality rate. Gambia (48.1), Ghana (60.1) and Benin (70.4) recorded the least unde-5 mortality rate per 1000 livebirths. Multiple birth children were about two times more likely to die compared to singleton birth, in all except Gambia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We observed significantly higher hazard rates for male compared to female children in the combined data analysis (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: [1.10–1.18]). The country specific analysis in Benin, Cote D’lvoire, Guinea, Liberia, Mali and Nigeria showed higher under-5 mortality hazard rates among male children compared to female children whilst Niger was the only country to report significantly lower hazard rate of males compared to females.

Conclusion

There is still quite a substantial amount of work to be done in order to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3 in 2030 in West Africa. There exist variant differences among some of the countries with respect to mortality rates and determinants which require different interventions and policy decisions.

Risk factors of child mortality in Ethiopia: Application of multilevel two-part model

The child mortality rate is an essential measurement of socioeconomic growth and the quality of life in Ethiopia which is one among the six countries that account for half of the global under-five deaths. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the potential risk factors for child mortality in Ethiopia. Data for the study was drawn from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data conducted in 2016. A two-part random effects regression model was employed to identify the associated predictors of child mortality. The study found that 53.3% of mothers did not face any child death, while 46.7% lost at least one. Vaccinated child (IRR = 0.735, 95%CI: 0.647, 0.834), were currently using contraceptive (IRR = 0.885, 95%CI: 0.814, 0.962), who had antenatal care visit four or more times visit (IRR = 0.841, 95%CI: 0.737,0.960), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.695, 95%CI: 0.594, 0.814), mothers who completed their primary school(IRR = 0.785, 95%CI: 0.713, 0.864), mothers who have birth interval greater than 36 months (IRR = 0.728, 95%CI: 0.676, 0.783), where the age of the mother at first birth is greater than 16 years(IRR = 0.711, 95%CI: 0.674, 0.750) associated with the small number of child death. While multiple births (IRR = 1.355, 95%CI: 1.249, 1.471, four and above birth order (IRR = 1.487, 95%CI: 1.373, 1.612) and had working father (IRR = 1.125, 95%CI: 1.049, 1.206) associated with a higher number of child death. The variance components for the random effects showed significant variation of child mortality between enumeration areas. Policies and programs aimed at addressing enumeration area variations in child mortality need to be formulated and their implementation must be strongly pursued. Efforts are also needed to extend educational programmers aimed at educating mothers on the benefits of the antenatal checkup before first birth, spacing their birth interval, having their child vaccinated, and selecting a safe place of delivery to reduce child mortality.

Impact of breastfeeding on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and cost-evaluation

Sub-Saharan Africa has lower breastfeeding rates compared to other low- and middle-income countries, and globally holds the highest under-five mortality rates. The aims of this study were to estimate mortality risk for inappropriate breastfeeding, prevalence of breastfeeding, population attributable fraction, and the economic impact of breastfeeding on child mortality, in sub-Saharan Africa. The systematic review included databases from Medline and CINAHL. Meta-analysis of mortality risk estimates was conducted using random effect methods. The prevalence of breastfeeding in Sub-Saharan African countries was determined using UNICEF's database. Population attributable fraction was derived from the prevalence and relative risk data. The cost attributable to child deaths in relation to inappropriate breastfeeding was calculated using the World Health Statistics data. The pooled relative mortality risk to any kind of infant feeding compared to exclusive and early breastfeeding initiation were 5.71 (95%CI: 2.14, 15.23) and 3.3 (95%CI: 2.49, 4.46), respectively. The overall exclusive and early initiation of breastfeeding prevalence were 35%(95%CI: 32%;37%) and 47%(95%CI: 44%;50%), respectively. The population attributable fraction for non-exclusive and late breastfeeding initiation breastfeeding were 75.7% and 55.3%, respectively. The non-health gross domestic product loss resulted in about 19.5 USB$.Conclusion: Public health interventions should prioritize appropriate breastfeeding practices to decrease the under-five mortality burden and its related costs in sub-Saharan Africa. What is Known: • Globally, sub-Saharan Africa holds the highest under five mortality rates and still has lower breastfeeding rates compared to other low- and middle-income countries. • There is a significant association between child mortality and inappropriate breastfeeding practices. What is New: • A five-fold and three-fold increased risks for under-five mortality were estimated with regard to non-exclusive breastfeeding and delayed breastfeeding initiation, respectively. • 55-75% of under-five deaths can be attributable to inappropriate breastfeeding practices and at least part of them could be potentially prevented with breastfeeding promotion interventions, saving a non-health gross domestic product loss of 19.5 USB$.

Mothers' Healthcare Autonomy, Maternal-Health Utilization and Healthcare for Children under-3 Years: Analysis of the Nigeria DHS Data (2008-2018)

This study was designed to simultaneously examine if mothers’ personal healthcare autonomy within the household, and the level of their maternal-healthcare utilization, translates into better preventive (complete immunization) and curative (treatments for diarrhoea, fever and acute respiratory infection) efforts on morbidities in child healthcare. We analysed data pooled from three consecutive waves of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey: the surveys of 2008, 2013 and 2018. Using a multilevel logistic regression, we estimated the odds ratio for each of the outcome variables while adjusting for covariates. Findings revealed that mothers’ health autonomy is positively associated with child immunization and treatment of morbidities (except diarrhoea), a relationship moderated by the frequency of mothers’ exposure to media. Additionally, mothers’ healthcare utilization is positively associated with complete immunization, and all forms of morbidity treatment (except diarrhoea). Although the relationship between mothers’ healthcare-utilization and child immunization is not dependent on family wealth, however, the relationship between mothers’ healthcare utilization and treatment of morbidity is dependent. Policy effort should be geared towards stimulating mothers to seek appropriate and timely child healthcare and future studies could consider looking into the mediating role of paternal support in this relationship.

A multi-year analysis of kangaroo mother care outcomes in low birth weight babies at a Nyakahanga Hospital in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) requires few specialized resources, reduces mortality, and can be implemented in low resource environments. It is now recommended for implementation around the globe.

OBJECTIVES

This paper discusses KMC use with low birth weight newborns at a Tanzania hospital providing valuable outcomes assessment of KMC use in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

The research used retrospective records (136 Low Birth Weight (LBW) and 33 Very Low Birth Weight (VLBW) neonates) supplemented by observations. Data included weights (longitudinal), survival period, and cause of death if it occurred. This hospital's KMC use and study data began when the mother-baby dyad was referred, usually birth day.

RESULTS

This KMC group demonstrated 70% survival, but 77% of deaths occur within 24 hours. After the first 24 hours, KMC survival rate was 92%. Even VLBW neonates (<1000 g) had 37.5% survival among the KMC program. Prematurity and respiratory distress caused nearly half of the deaths, but hypothermia (19% of deaths) and infection were factors also.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates the value of KMC in rural low resource environments. Results are comparable to KMC programs in urban areas where newborns begin KMC after stabilization and better than outcomes reported for comparable populations not practicing KMC in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Determinants of trends in neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child and under-five mortalities in Tanzania from 2004 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality is still a major health issue in many developing countries like Tanzania. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of ending preventable child deaths in Tanzania, a detailed understanding of the risk factors for under-five deaths is essential to guide targeted interventions. This study aimed to investigate trends and determinants of neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child and under-five mortalities in Tanzania from 2004 to 2016.

METHODS

The study used combined data from the 2004-2005, 2010 and 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys, with a sample of 25,951 singletons live births and 1585 under-five deaths. We calculated age-specific mortality rates, followed by an assessment of trends and determinants (community, socioeconomic, individual and health service) of neonatal, postneonatal, infant, child and under-five mortalities in Cox regression models. The models adjusted for potential confounders, clustering and sampling weights.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2016, we found that neonatal mortality rate remained unchanged, while postneonatal mortality and child mortality rates have halved in Tanzania. Infant mortality and under-five mortality rates have also declined. Mothers who gave births through caesarean section, younger mothers (< 20 years), mothers who perceived their babies to be small or very small and those with fourth or higher birth rank and a short preceding birth interval (≤2 years) reported higher risk of neonatal, postneonatal and infant mortalities.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that there was increased survival of children under-5 years in Tanzania driven by significant improvements in postneonatal, infant and child survival rates. However, there remains unfinished work in ending preventable child deaths in Tanzania.

Recurrent child mortality risks and parity transition in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Fertility rates remain persistently high in Nigeria, with little difference across socioeconomic groups. While the desire for large family size is culturally rooted, there is little understanding of how repeated child mortality experiences influence fertility behaviour and parity transition in Nigeria.

METHODS

Using birth history data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), we applied life table techniques and proportional-hazard regression model to explore the effect of child survival experience on parity transitions. We hypothesize that a woman with one or more child death experience is at elevated risk of progressing towards higher parities.

RESULTS

Our findings show that child mortality is concentrated among mothers living in deprived conditions especially in rural areas of the northern part of Nigeria and among those with little or no education and, among those belonging to Hausa/Fulani ethnicity and Islam religion. Mothers with repeated experience of child deaths were significantly at a higher rate of progressing to higher parities than their counterparts (HR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.31-1.61), when adjusted for relevant biological and socio-demographic characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Recurrent experience of child deaths exacerbates the risks to higher parity transition. Interventions aimed at reducing fertility in Nigeria should target promoting child survival and family planning concurrently.

Home deaths of children under 5 years in rural South Africa: a population-based longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the proportion of under-5 deaths that occurred at home in rural South Africa, whether care was sought prior to death, and determinants of home deaths amongst those who sought care.

METHODS

Verbal autopsy data were used for all under-5 deaths, 2000-2015, in two health and demographic surveillance system sites. Trends in place of death and care-seeking were assessed. Associations between sociodemographic factors and home death despite seeking care were assessed by multivariate logistic regressions.

RESULTS

There were 3760 under-5 deaths; 1954 (53%) at home and 1510 (41%) in health facilities. Eighty-four per cent of children who died at home accessed healthcare during their final illness. Amongst neonates for whom care was sought, those who were 8-27 days old were more likely to die at home than those who were 0-7 days old (OR = 5.56, 95%CI 2.69-11.55, P < 0.001). Factors associated with home death of infants and young children despite seeking care included low maternal education (OR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.31-2.24, P < 0.001), larger household size (OR = 1.56, 95%CI 1.17-2.06, P = 0.002), traditional medicine use (OR = 2.33, 95%CI 1.75-3.12, P < 0.001) and Mozambican descent (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.06-2.03, P = 0.020). The proportion of HIV-related deaths that occurred at home fell from 60% in 2008-2011 to 39% in 2012-2015 ( χ²  = 13.86, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

More than half of under-5 deaths in rural South Africa occurred at home although healthcare was sought for most children, highlighting that home deaths are not simply a function of poor care-seeking. Interventions should target high-risk sociodemographic groups.

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Globally, millions of children aged below 5 years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5 years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model and to identify determinants of under-five mortality.

METHOD

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Analyses were conducted on 5884 children. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). Single level binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models were employed to investigate determinants of under-five mortality. The fit of the model was checked using Variance Inflation Factor and Likelihood Ratio tests. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to assess the predictive ability of the models. A p-value< 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

The study observed 289 (4.91%) deaths among children aged below 5 years. The study produced a good predictive model and identified increase in number of total children ever born, number of births in last 5 years, and mothers who did not intend to use contraceptive as critical risk factors that increase the odds of under-five mortality. Also, children who were born multiple and residing in certain geographical regions of Ghana is associated with increased odds of under-five mortality. Maternal education and being a female child decreased the odds of under-five mortality. No significant unobserved household-level variations in under-five mortality were found. The spatial map revealed regional differences in crude under-five mortality rate in the country.

CONCLUSION

This study identified critical risk factors for under-five mortality and strongly highlights the need for family planning, improvement in maternal education and addressing regional disparities in child health which could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at improving child survival.

Factors associated with under-five mortality in Bhutan: an analysis of the Bhutan National Health Survey 2012

BACKGROUND

As an important marker for health equity and access, under-five mortality (UFM) is a primary measure for socioeconomic development. The importance of reducing UFM has been further emphasized in an ambitious target under Sustainable Development Goals. The factors influencing UFM are not adequately understood in Bhutan.

METHODS

The most recent dataset of the Bhutan National Health Survey (BNHS) 2012 was used in this study. Multiple logistic regression analysis using a backwards elimination approach was performed to identify significant factors influencing UFM. All statistical analyses were adjusted for the complex study design due to the multistage stratified cluster sampling used in BNHS.

RESULTS

Bhutan's UFM rate was 37 per 1000 live births. The weighted mean age of the children was 7.3 years (SD: 1.53; range: 3-12). Mother's age, household size, access to electricity and sanitation, residential region, and parity were the key factors associated with UFM. The UFM risk was significantly lower in children born to mothers aged 36-40 years, 41-45 years, and > 45 years when compared to that in children born to mothers aged < 26 years. The likelihood of mortality was 66% lower (95% CI: 0.21-0.55) among children born in households with > 5 members. Children born in households without electricity and safe sanitation had a significantly higher risk of death, by 81 and 49% respectively. Relative to those born in the west, children born in the central and eastern regions were 1.72 (95% CI: 1.07-2.77) and 2.09 (95% CI: 1.46-2.99) times more likely to die, respectively. Children born to mothers who gave birth to > 2 children were significantly more likely to die than their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that younger mother's age, the higher number of births and being born in the central and eastern regions are associated with a higher UFM risk, whereas a larger household size and access to electricity and safe sanitation are key factors associated with lower UFM risk in Bhutan. Women empowerment, health education and strategies promoting maternal and child health in rural areas need to be scaled-up. Additionally, socioeconomic development programs should seek to reduce regional disparities.

Spatial Analysis of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors Associated with Contraceptive Use among Women of Childbearing Age in Rwanda

Contraceptive use is considered as essential for protecting women’s health and rights, influencing fertility and population growth, and helping to promote economic development. The main objective of this study was to analysis the factors and spatial correlates of contraceptive use among women of childbearing age. The 2015 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS) data were used to identify the factors associated with contraceptive use in Rwanda. A Bayesian geo-additive model was used in order to account for fixed effects, nonlinear effects, spatial and random effects inherent in the data. The overall prevalence of use of any contraceptive method among married women of childbearing age in Rwanda was 52.7%. A woman’s age, wealth quintile, level of education, working status, number of living children, and exposure to the media was found to increase contraceptive use. The findings from the study also found disparities in contraceptive use at provincial and district level, where prevalence was higher in districts of Northern provinces and lower in districts of western provinces. The findings of this study suggest that exposure to information on contraceptive use in health centres, empowerment of women to access quality contraceptive-use services and religions to play an important role in explaining and informing their adherents on the importance of using a contraceptive method.

Spatio-temporal patterns of under 5 mortality in Nigeria

•

Under 5 mortality rates in Nigeria are very high.

•

There are significant variations in under 5 mortality rates across states over time.

•

There is evidence of statistically significant spatial autocorrelation over time.

•

Significant reductions are achievable with both state and region specific measures.

Under-five mortality in the Rongo Sub-County of Migori County, Kenya: Experience of the Lwala Community Alliance 2007-2017 with evidence from a cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Childhood mortality remains a pressing problem in rural Kenya, and reducing under-five deaths is a key target of the Sustainable Development Goals. We aim to describe the reduction in under-five mortality in a rural Kenyan community served by the Lwala Community Alliance and factors associated with under-five mortality in this community.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey containing a complete birth history was administered to a representative sample of the catchment area of the Lwala Community Alliance. Survival analysis techniques were used to describe temporal trends and risk factors related to under-five mortality.

Results

1,362 children were included in the study, and 91 children died before the fifth birthday. The most common causes of death among children under five were malaria (19%), respiratory infection (13%), and anemia (11%). The under-five mortality rate was 104.8 per 1,000 live births from 1999 to 2006 and 53.0 per 1,000 after the founding of the Lwala Community Alliance in 2007. Factors associated with under-five mortality included year of birth (HR 0.931; 95% CI: 0.877, 0.988; p = 0.019), multiple-gestation pregnancy (HR 6.201; 95% CI: 2.073, 18.555; p < 0.001), and birth in the long rain season (HR 1.981; 95% CI: 1.350, 2.907; p < 0.001). Birth spacing greater than 18 months was negatively associated with under-five mortality (HR 0.345; 95% CI: 0.203, 0.587; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

There was a significant decrease in under-five mortality before and after the presence of the Lwala Community Alliance. Multiple-gestation pregnancies, birth season, and short birth spacing were associated with under-five mortality and provide possible targets to further reduce mortality in the region. This provides both hyper-local data necessary for implementation efforts and generalizable data and sampling methods that may be useful for other implementing organizations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Maternal and child characteristics and health practices affecting under-five mortality: A matched case control study in Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Though Ethiopia has shown a considerable improvement in reducing under-five mortality rate since 1990, many children still continue to die prematurely. Mixed results have been reported about determinants of under-five mortality. Besides, there is paucity of mortality studies in the current study site. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess maternal and child health related predictors of under-five mortality in Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A matched case control study was conducted in 2014 in Arba Minch Town and Arba Minch Zuria District of Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Conditional logistic regression was employed to identify the predictors of under-five mortality. Sampling weight was applied to account for the non-proportional allocation of sample to different clusters. Based on the Mosley & Chen's analytical framework for under-five and infant mortalities, the predictors were organized in to three groups: 1) personal illness control, 2) child feeding and newborn care and 3) other maternal and child related factors.

RESULTS

Among personal illness control related factors: lack of post-natal care, immunization status of the child and lack of Vitamin A supplementation were significantly associated with higher rate of under-five mortality. Not breastfeeding and delaying first bath at least for 24 hours were child feeding and newborn care related factors which were found to be significantly associated with under-five mortality. Among other maternal and child related factors, shorter previous birth interval, history of death of index child's older sibling, being multiple birth and live birth after the index child were significantly associated with under-five mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to maintain reduction of under-five mortality during the Sustainable Development Goals era, strengthening of maternal and child health interventions, such as post-natal care, family planning, immunization, supplementation of Vitamin A for children older than six months, breastfeeding and delaying of first bath after delivery at least for 24 hours are recommended.

Risk Factors for Child Mortality in the Kassena-Nankana District of Northern Ghana: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Population-Based Data

Child mortality continues to be a major public health problem in Ghana, especially in northern Ghana where child survival rates are among the lowest. Though strategies are in place to address it, progress made is unsatisfactory and the Sustainable Development Goal 3 risks being missed. This makes the reexamination of the risk factors for child mortality crucial as results will aid in the modification of existing strategies aimed at addressing the problem. This study was a population-based case control study utilizing data (2007-2011) from the Demographic Surveillance System database of the Navrongo Health Research Center. Cases and controls were selected from the database and analysed unmatched. Cases were children who died before age five and controls were live children within the same year group. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed using STATA (v13). The results revealed the main causes of death in the area to include malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory infections, and malnutrition. Mother's age at birth, mother's educational level, and mother's household socioeconomic status were significantly related to child mortality. On the basis of these results, we conclude that the known risk factors for child mortality in the Kassena-Nankana district have not changed much over the years. Current child survival strategies therefore need to be evaluated and modified where necessary to yield desired results.

Association of Place of Residence and Under-Five Mortality in Middle- and Low-Income Countries: A Meta-Analysis

This review evaluated the association of place of residence (urban/rural) and under-five mortality in middle- and low-income countries. Both English and Spanish language studies conducted during the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period (1990 to 2015) were reviewed. Twenty-six cross-sectional studies, all in the English language, were selected for further review. Published data were used for this analysis. A funnel plot was produced to ascertain the presence of publication bias. The combined relative risk for under-five mortality was estimated using a random-effects model and a meta-regression was conducted on 15 of the 26 studies. The studies had a combined effect size of 1.47 (95% confidence interval, 1.27&ndash;1.67). The results of the meta-regression showed a positive association between the relative risk and the percentage of the rural population for the various regions/countries. The coefficient for the variable rural population percentage was 0.007, indicating that for every one percent increase in the rural population percentage, there was a 0.007 increase in the relative risk for under-five mortality. However, this was not significant (p-value = 0.3). Rural disadvantage persists in middle- and low-income countries. This is important to evaluate policies and programmes designed to remove the gap in under-five mortality rates between urban and rural areas.