The incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus among 15-34 years aged Lithuanian population: 18-year incidence study based on prospective databases

Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data

INTRODUCTION

We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%).

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.

The Incidence of Adult-Onset Type 1 Diabetes: A Systematic Review From 32 Countries and Regions

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence is not well-characterized due to the historic focus on T1D as a childhood-onset disease.

PURPOSE

We assess the incidence of adult-onset (≥20 years) T1D, by country, from available data.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic review of MEDLINE, Embase, and the gray literature, through 11 May 2021, was undertaken.

STUDY SELECTION

We included all population-based studies reporting on adult-onset T1D incidence and published from 1990 onward in English.

DATA EXTRACTION

With the search we identified 1,374 references of which 46 were included for data extraction. Estimates of annual T1D incidence were allocated into broad age categories (20-39, 40-59, ≥60, or ≥20 years) as appropriate.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Overall, we observed the following patterns: 1) there is a paucity of data, particularly in low- and middle-income countries; 2) the incidence of adult-onset T1D is lowest in Asian and highest in Nordic countries; 3) adult-onset T1D is higher in men versus women; 4) it is unclear whether adult-onset T1D incidence declines with increasing age; and 5) it is unclear whether incidence of adult-onset T1D has changed over time.

LIMITATIONS

Results are generalizable to high-income countries, and misclassification of diabetes type cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

From available data, this systematic review suggests that the incidence of T1D in adulthood is substantial and highlights the pressing need to better distinguish T1D from T2D in adults so that we may better assess and respond to the true burden of T1D in adults.

Validation of a type 1 diabetes algorithm using electronic medical records and administrative healthcare data to study the population incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Ontario, Canada

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to develop algorithms distinguishing type 1 diabetes (T1D) from type 2 diabetes in adults ≥18 years old using primary care electronic medical record (EMRPC) and administrative healthcare data from Ontario, Canada, and to estimate T1D prevalence and incidence.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The reference population was a random sample of patients with diabetes in EMRPC whose charts were manually abstracted (n=5402). Algorithms were developed using classification trees, random forests, and rule-based methods, using electronic medical record (EMR) data, administrative data, or both. Algorithm performance was assessed in EMRPC. Administrative data algorithms were additionally evaluated using a diabetes clinic registry with endocrinologist-assigned diabetes type (n=29 371). Three algorithms were applied to the Ontario population to evaluate the minimum, moderate and maximum estimates of T1D prevalence and incidence rates between 2010 and 2017, and trends were analyzed using negative binomial regressions.

RESULTS

Of 5402 individuals with diabetes in EMRPC, 195 had T1D. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the best performing algorithms were 80.6% (75.9-87.2), 99.8% (99.7-100), 94.9% (92.3-98.7), and 99.3% (99.1-99.5) for EMR, 51.3% (44.0-58.5), 99.5% (99.3-99.7), 79.4% (71.2-86.1), and 98.2% (97.8-98.5) for administrative data, and 87.2% (81.7-91.5), 99.9% (99.7-100), 96.6% (92.7-98.7) and 99.5% (99.3-99.7) for combined EMR and administrative data. Administrative data algorithms had similar sensitivity and specificity in the diabetes clinic registry. Of 11 499 711 adults in Ontario in 2017, there were 24 789 (0.22%, minimum estimate) to 102 140 (0.89%, maximum estimate) with T1D. Between 2010 and 2017, the age-standardized and sex-standardized prevalence rates per 1000 person-years increased (minimum estimate 1.7 to 2.56, maximum estimate 7.48 to 9.86, p<0.0001). In contrast, incidence rates decreased (minimum estimate 0.1 to 0.04, maximum estimate 0.47 to 0.09, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Primary care EMR and administrative data algorithms performed well in identifying T1D and demonstrated increasing T1D prevalence in Ontario. These algorithms may permit the development of large, population-based cohort studies of T1D.

Prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes in Ireland: a retrospective cross-sectional study using a national pharmacy claims data from 2016

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes in the Irish population using a national pharmacy claims database in the absence of a national diabetes register.

DESIGN

National, population-based, retrospective, cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Community care with data available through the Health Service Executive Pharmacy Claims Reimbursement Scheme from 2011 to 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals with type 1 diabetes were identified by coprescription of insulin and glucometer test strips without any prolonged course (>12 months) of oral hypoglycaemic agents prior to commencing insulin. Those claiming prescriptions for long-acting insulin only, without any prandial insulin, were excluded from the analysis. Incidence was estimated based on the first claim for insulin in 2016, with no insulin use in the preceding 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of type 1 diabetes in children (<18 years) and adults (≥18 years); incidence of type 1 diabetes in children (≤14 years) and adolescents and adults (>14 years).

RESULTS

There were 20 081 prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2016. The crude prevalence was 0.42% (95% CI 0.42% to 0.43%). Most prevalent cases (n=17 053, 85%) were in adults with a prevalence of 0.48% (95% CI 0.47% to 0.48%). There were 1527 new cases of type 1 diabetes in 2016, giving an incidence rate of 32 per 100 000 population/year (95% CI 30.5 to 33.7). There was a significant positive linear trend for age, for prevalence (p<0.0001) and incidence (p=0.014). The prevalence and incidence were 1.2-fold and 1.3-fold higher in men than women, respectively. Significant variations in prevalence (p<0.0001) and incidence (p<0.001) between the different geographical regions were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides epidemiological estimates of type 1 diabetes across age groups in Ireland, with the majority of prevalent cases in adults. Establishing a national diabetes register is essential to enable updated epidemiological estimates of diabetes and for planning of services in Ireland.

Prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes in the world: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Diabetes is referred to a group of diseases characterized by high glucose levels in blood. It is caused by a deficiency in the production or function of insulin or both, which can occur because of different reasons, resulting in protein and lipid metabolic disorders. The aim of this study was to systematically review the prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes in the world. Methods: A systematic search of resources was conducted to investigate the prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes in the world. The databases of Medline (via PubMed and Ovid),ProQuest, Scopus, and Web of Science from January 1980 to September 2019 were searched to locate English articles. The located articles were screened in multiple levels of title, abstract,and full-text and final studies that met the inclusion criteria were retrieved and included in the study. Results: From 1202 located articles, 193 studies were included in this systematic review. The results of meta-analysis showed that the incidence of type 1 diabetes was 15 per 100,000 people and the prevalence was 9.5% (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.12) in the world, which was statistically significant. Conclusion: According to the results, the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes are increasing in the world. As a result, insulin will be difficult to access and afford, especially in underdeveloped and developing countries.

Incidence trend of type 1 diabetes mellitus in Serbia

BACKGROUND

The incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) increased worldwide. The objective of the paper was to compare the incidence trend of T1DM in children and adolescents aged 0-19 and in adults under 30 years of age in Serbia from 2006 to 2017. Additional aim was to compare incidence rates of T1DM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among adults aged 20-24 and 25-29 years of age.

METHODS

Trends and annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence rate with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Analyses.

RESULTS

We found a significant increase of incidence in children aged 5-9 with the APC of 5.7% (95%CI: 2.3-9.1), and in children aged 10-14 with the APC of 2.1% (95%CI: 0.6-3.6). A significant decrease of incidence was determined in adolescents aged 15-19 with the APC -4.9% (95%CI: - 8.9 to - 0.7) and in adults aged 25-29 with the APC -7.3% (95%CI: - 12.5 to - 1.8).

CONCLUSION

The increase of incidence in children aged 0-14 and its decrease after 15 years of age showed that T1DM is predominantly a metabolic disease of children in Serbia. A significant increase in incidence was recorded in two age groups, namely 5-9 and 10-14 years of age. The highest increase was in children aged 5-9 and the highest incidence rate was in children aged 10-14. An insignificant increasing of T2DM incidence was observed in young adults aged 25-29. The increase in incidence rates in children, but not in young adults, suggests that the precipitating factors of children-onset disease may differ from those of adult-onset T1DM.

The number of adults with incident type 1 diabetes phenotype in Iceland is half the number in children - A population based study

AIMS

Type1 diabetes is generally regarded as an abruptly presenting disease in children without family history. The incidence and prevalence of insulin requiring diabetes in adults is unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify this issue by examining the epidemiology of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in adulthood in a countrýs whole population.

METHODS

Complete clinical and prescription data were used to identify cases of insulin requiring diabetes in the Icelandic population 18 years and older during the decade preceding February 2013. Health care databases and the insulin reimbursement system allowed for near 100% ascertainment of cases.

RESULTS

Mean age at diagnosis was 32.1 years. The WHO age-adjusted incidence rate was 4.29/100.000 individuals and the point prevalence 0.10%. One fourth of cases were diagnosed after the age of forty. The male-to-female incidence rate ratio was 1.59. Almost 30% of cases presented with diabetic ketoacidosis and 40% had a positive family history.

CONCLUSION

Type 1 like diabetes commonly presents in adults and family history is not rare. One can expect one case of type 1 diabetes in adults for every two children diagnosed. These results emphasize the need to acknowledge the possibility of absolute insulin deficiency in any newly presenting adult with diabetes.

Incidence of type 1 diabetes in age groups above 15 years: facts, hypothesis and prospects for future epidemiologic research

Although onset of type 1 diabetes can occur in adulthood, epidemiological data are scarce, limiting our potential to identify unknown determinants of the disease. Paucity of registries expanding the recruitment of incident cases up to adulthood, atypical clinical features of type 1 diabetes at onset, misclassification of type 1 as type 2 diabetes and little use of markers of β-cell autoimmunity represents major obstacles in studying the risk of type 1 diabetes in adults. New strategies in study design, data collection and analyses may overcome these problems in the future. Population-based surveys and registries including adulthood; use of etiological rather than clinical criteria to define type 1 diabetes; availability of electronic health records as prescription data sources to avoid missing data; and application of proper statistical methods will be instrumental to gain better insight on the epidemiology and natural history of the disease.

The prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus among 15-34-year-aged Lithuanian inhabitants during 1991-2010

AIMS

To summarize the data on the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus among 15-34-year-aged Lithuania inhabitants (1991-2010).

METHODS

New prevalent cases consist of growing-up patients with diabetes onset in childhood, i.e., up to 14 years, new onset 15-34-year-aged type 1 diabetic patients Lithuanian inhabitants, and immigrants. The data on type 1 diabetes was collected with the help of general practitioners and regional endocrinologists in Lithuania.

RESULTS

On 31 December 1991, there were 1202 adolescent and adult 15-34-year-aged patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus or 103.59 per 100,000 inhabitants of the same age group (95% Poisson CI 97.90-109.62), and at the end of 2010 - 1533 or 187.80 (178.63-197.44), respectively in Lithuania. During 19-year period the mean increase of type 1 diabetic patients was 1.25±1.94% per year or 1.47±2.74 per 100,000 inhabitants per mean year of the study period (for males 1.42±2.14% or 1.69±3.05/100,000 and for females 1.05±1.99%, or 1.24±2.92/100,000). Regression-based linear trends showed that the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in 15-34-year-age group had a tendency to increase among males (r=0.953; p<0.001) and females (r=0.970; p<0.001). The age adjusted prevalence frequencies for males and females in 1991 were correspondingly 102.81/100,000 and 104.55/100,000, and in 2010 - 193.75 and 182.01.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus among 15-34-year-age males and females had a tendency to increase during 1991-2010.

Global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in young adults and adults: a systematic review

Background

Although type 1 diabetes (T1D) can affect patients of all ages, most epidemiological studies of T1D focus on disease forms with clinical diagnosis during childhood and adolescence. Clinically, adult T1D is difficult to discriminate from certain forms of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) and from Latent Autoimmune Diabetes in Adults (LADA).

We searched the information available worldwide on the incidence of T1D among individuals over 15 years of age, and which diagnostic criteria should be used use to qualify T1D in adults. We then studied the variation of T1D incidence with age in adults, and compared it to the incidence in the <15 years-old.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature was performed to retrieve original papers in English, French and Spanish published up to November 6, 2014, reporting the incidence of T1D among individuals aged over 15 years. The study was carried out according to the PRISMA recommendations.

Results

We retrieved information reporting incidence of T1D among individuals aged more than 15 years in 35 countries, and published in 70 articles between 1982 and 2014. Specific anti-beta-cell proteins or C-peptide detection were performed in 14 of 70 articles (20%). The most frequent diagnostic criteria used were clinical symptoms and immediate insulin therapy. Country-to-country variations of incidence in those aged >15 years paralleled those of children in all age groups. T1D incidence was larger in males than in females in 44 of the 54 (81%) studies reporting incidence by sex in people >15 years of age. The overall mean male-to-female ratio in the review was 1.47 (95% CI = 1.33-1.60, SD = 0.49, n = 54, p = <0.0001). Overall, T1D incidence decreased in adulthood, after the age of 14 years.

Conclusions

Few studies on epidemiology of T1D in adults are available worldwide, as compared to those reporting on children with T1D. The geographical variations of T1D incidence in adults parallel those reported in children. As opposed to what is known in children, the incidence is generally larger in males than in females. There is an unmet need to evaluate the incidence of autoimmune T1D in adults, using specific autoantibody detection, and to better analyze epidemiological specificities – if any – of adult T1D.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42012002369.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1591-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Male-female differences in diabetic retinopathy?

The purpose of this paper is to review male-female differences in the incidence and prevalence of diabetes and diabetic retinopathy. These differences will be established primarily through results from our present research and a review of related literature. Previously, we have demonstrated that neuroretinal dysfunction can be used to predict the location of future retinopathy up to three years before it is manifest. Our current research suggests that, for type 2 diabetes, the normal differences in neuroretinal function between nondiabetic males and females under 50 years of age are altered in patients with type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, local neuroretinal function in type 2 diabetes is more abnormal in adult males compared with adult females. The literature also suggests that there are male-female differences in the occurrence of diabetes. In adolescence, the incidence of type 1 diabetes is greater in males, whereas in type 2 diabetes, the incidence is greater in females. This excess of females in type 2 diabetes shifts to a more equal incidence between the two sexes in adults. In addition, advanced retinopathy in type 1 diabetes appears to be more common in males, and the presence and severity of diabetic retinopathy at the time of diagnosis in type 2 diabetes appears to be more associated with male sex. Although the reasons for male-female differences identified in this review are unknown, sex appears to be a significant factor in certain aspects of diabetes incidence and diabetic retinopathy.

The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Republic of Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Slovenia in the period 1998-2010

OBJECTIVE

To establish and compare the incidence and trends of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in Republic of Srpska and Slovenia in age group 0-18 yr from 1998 to 2010.

METHODS

The subjects (413 newly diagnosed T1DM patients in the Republic of Srpska and 664 in Slovenia) were grouped into the age groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 yr. Confidence intervals (CI) for crude incidence rates were estimated assuming numbers of cases were counts from the Poisson distribution. Gender and age-specific standardization was done according to the EURODIAB criteria. Statistical analysis used Poisson-regression models to analyze difference rate between countries and to investigate the incidence trend.

RESULTS

Case ascertainment was estimated to be 99.95% for the Republic of Srpska and 100% for Slovenia by using the capture-recapture method. The standardized incidence of T1DM for age group 0-18 yr in the Republic of Srpska was 7.5/100 000/yr (95% CI: 6.8-8.3). For the same period and the same age group incidence in Slovenia was 12.5/100 000/yr (95% CI: 11.5-13.5). Annual increase in the incidence in the Republic of Srpska was 2.3% (95% CI: -0.3 to 5.0%), whereas in Slovenia 4.3% (95% CI: 2.2-6.5%).

CONCLUSION

The incidence for age group 0-18 yr standardized to the world population is remarkably higher in Slovenia than in the Republic of Srpska. Further follow-up and investigations are needed to explain the high difference in incidence of T1DM between the two geographically related countries.