Assumptions and methods in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Introduction

Predicting the potential impact of scaling up four pneumonia interventions on under-five pneumonia mortality: A prospective Lives Saved Tool (LiST) analysis for Bangladesh, Chad, and Ethiopia

Background

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of mortality in under-five children outside the neonatal period. Progress has slowed down in the last decade, necessitating increased efforts to scale up effective pneumonia interventions.

Methods

We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a modelling software for child mortality in low- and middle-income settings, to prospectively analyse the potential impact of upscaling pneumonia interventions in Bangladesh, Chad, and Ethiopia from 2023 to 2030. We included Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) vaccination, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), oral antibiotics, pulse oximetry, and oxygen as pneumonia interventions in our analysis. Outcomes of interest were the number of pneumonia deaths averted, the proportion of deaths averted by intervention, and changes in the under-five mortality rate.

Findings

We found that 19 775 lives of children under-five could be saved in Bangladesh, 76 470 in Chad, and 97 343 in Ethiopia by scaling intervention coverages to ≥90% by 2030. Our estimated reductions in pneumonia deaths among children under five range from 44.61% to 57.91% in the respective countries. Increased coverage of oral antibiotics, pulse oximetry, and oxygen show similar effects in all three countries, averting between 18.80% and 23.65% of expected pneumonia deaths. Scaling-up PCV has a prominent effect, especially in Chad, where it could avert 14.04% of expected pneumonia deaths. Under-five mortality could be reduced by 1.42 per 1000 live births in Bangladesh, 22.52 per 1000 live births in Chad, and 5.48 per 1000 live births in Ethiopia.

Conclusions

This analysis shows the high impact of upscaling pneumonia interventions. The lack of data regarding coverage indicators is a barrier for further research, policy, and implementation, all requiring increased attention.

Investment case for small and sick newborn care in Tanzania: systematic analyses

BACKGROUND

Small and sick newborn care (SSNC) is critical for national neonatal mortality reduction targets by 2030. Investment cases could inform implementation planning and enable coordinated resource mobilisation. We outline development of an investment case for Tanzania to estimate additional financing for scaling up SSNC to 80% of districts as part of health sector strategies to meet the country's targets.

METHODS

We followed five steps: (1) reviewed national targets, policies and guidelines; (2) modelled potential health benefits by increased coverage of SSNC using the Lives Saved Tool; (3) estimated setup and running costs using the Neonatal Device Planning and Costing Tool, applying two scenarios: (A) all new neonatal units and devices with optimal staffing, and (B) half new and half modifying, upgrading, or adding resources to existing neonatal units; (4) calculated budget impact and return on investment (ROI) and (5) identified potential financing opportunities.

RESULTS

Neonatal mortality rate was forecast to fall from 20 to 13 per 1000 live births with scale-up of SSNC, superseding the government 2025 target of 15, and close to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 target of <12. At 85% endline coverage, estimated cumulative lives saved were 36,600 by 2025 and 80,000 by 2030. Total incremental costs were estimated at US$166 million for scenario A (US$112 million set up and US$54 million for running costs) and US$90 million for scenario B (US$65 million setup and US$25 million for running costs). Setup costs were driven by infrastructure (83%) and running costs by human resources (60%). Cost per capita was US$0.93 and the ROI is estimated to be between US$8-12 for every dollar invested.

CONCLUSIONS

ROI for SSNC is higher compared to other health investments, noting many deaths averted followed by full lifespan. This is conservative since disability averted is not included. Budget impact analysis estimated a required 2.3% increase in total government health expenditure per capita from US$40.62 in 2020, which is considered affordable, and the government has already allocated additional funding. Our proposed five-step SSNC investment case has potential for other countries wanting to accelerate progress.

The Health Innovation Impact Checklist: a tool to improve the development and reporting of impact models for global health innovations

Donor financing is increasingly relying on performance-based measures that demonstrate impact. As new technologies and interventions enter the innovation space to address global health challenges, innovators often need to model their potential impact prior to obtaining solid effectiveness data. Diverse stakeholders rely on impact modeling data to make key funding and scaling decisions. With a lack of standardized methodology to model impact and various stakeholders using different modeling strategies, we propose that a universal innovation impact checklist be used to aid in transparent and aligned modeling efforts. This article describes a new Health Innovation Impact Checklist (HIIC) – a tool developed while evaluating the impact of health innovations funded under the Saving Lives at Birth (SL@B) program. SL@B, a global health Grand Challenge initiative, funded 116 unique maternal and newborn health innovations, four of which were selected for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) within our evaluation. A key data source needed to complete a CEA was the lives saved estimate. HIIC was developed to help validate draft impact models from the SL@B donors and our own team’s additional modeling efforts, to ensure the inclusion of standardized elements and to pressure test assumptions for modeling impact. This article describes the core components of HIIC including its strengths and limitations. It also serves as an open call for further reviewing and tailoring of this checklist for applicability across global efforts to model the impact of health innovations.

Impact of mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets in Mozambique, 2012 to 2025: Estimates of child lives saved using the Lives Saved Tool

Malaria was the leading cause of post-neonatal deaths in Mozambique in 2017. The use of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) is recognized as one of the most effective ways to reduce malaria mortality in children. No previous analyses have estimated changes in mortality attributable to the scale-up of ITNs, accounting for provincial differences in mortality rates and coverage of health interventions. Based upon annual provincial ownership coverage of ITNs, the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a multi-cause mathematical model, estimated under-5 lives saved attributable to increased household ITN coverage in 10 provinces of Mozambique between 2012 and 2018, and projected lives saved from 2019 to 2025 if 2018 coverage levels are sustained. An estimated 14,040 under-5 child deaths were averted between 2012 and 2018. If 2018 coverage levels are maintained until 2025, an additional 33,277 child deaths could be avoided. If coverage reaches at least 85% in all ten provinces by 2022, then a projected 36,063 child lives can be saved. From 2012 to 2018, the estimated number of lives saved was highest in Zambezia and Tete provinces. Increases in ITN coverage can save a substantial number of child lives in Mozambique. Without continued investment, thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Equity and Coverage in the Continuum of Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Services in Nepal-Projecting the Estimates on Death Averted Using the LiST Tool

Introduction

The third Sustainable Development Goal, focused on health, includes two targets related to the reduction in maternal, newborn and under-five childhood mortality. We found it imperative to examine the equity and coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) interventions from 2001 to 2016 in Nepal; and the death aversion that will take place during the SDG period.

Methods

We used the datasets from the Nepal Demographic Health Surveys (NDHS) 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. We calculated the coverage and equity for RMNCH interventions and the composite coverage index (CCI). Based on the Annualized Rate of Change (ARC) in the coverage for selected RMNCH indicators, we projected the trend for the RMNCH interventions by 2030. We used the Lives Saved Tools (LiST) tool to estimate the maternal, newborn, under-five childhood deaths and stillbirths averted. We categorised the interventions into four different patterns based on coverage and inequity gap.

Results

Between 2001 and 2016, a significant improvement is seen in the overall RMNCH intervention coverage-CCI increasing from 46 to 75%. The ARC was highest for skilled attendance at birth (11.7%) followed by care seeking for pneumonia (8.2%) between the same period. In 2016, the highest inequity existed for utilization of the skilled birth attendance services (51%), followed by antenatal care (18%). The inequity gap for basic immunization services reduced significantly from 27.4% in 2001 to 5% in 2016. If the current ARC continues, then an additional 3783 maternal deaths, 36,443 neonatal deaths, 66,883 under-five childhood deaths and 24,024 stillbirths is expected to be averted by the year 2030.

Conclusion

Nepal has experienced an improvement in the coverage and equity in RMNCH interventions. Reducing inequities will improve coverage for skilled birth attendants and antenatal care. The current annual rate of change in RMNCH coverage will further reduce the maternal, neonatal, under-five childhood deaths and stillbirths.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s10995-019-02828-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are there decision support tools that might strengthen the health system for perinatal care in South African district hospitals? A review of the literature

BACKGROUND

South Africa has a high burden of perinatal deaths in spite of the availability of evidence-based interventions. The majority of preventable perinatal deaths occur in district hospitals and are mainly related to the functioning of the health system. Particularly, leadership in district hospitals needs to be strengthened in order to decrease the burden of perinatal mortality. Decision-making is a key function of leaders, however leaders in district hospitals are not supported to make evidence-based decisions. The aim of this research was to identify health system decision support tools that can be applied at district hospital level to strengthen decision-making in the health system for perinatal care in South Africa.

METHODS

A structured approach, the systematic quantitative literature review method, was conducted to find published articles that reported on decision support tools to strengthen decision-making in a health system for perinatal, maternal, neonatal and child health. Articles published in English between 2003 and 2017 were sought through the following search engines: Google Scholar, EBSCOhost and Science Direct. Furthermore, the electronic databases searched were: Academic Search Complete, Health Source - Consumer Edition, Health Source - Nursing/Academic Edition and MEDLINE.

RESULTS

The search yielded 6366 articles of which 43 met the inclusion criteria for review. Four decision support tools identified in the articles that met the inclusion criteria were the Lives Saved Tool, Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology model, OneHealth Tool, and Discrete Event Simulation. The analysis reflected that none of the identified decision support tools could be adopted at district hospital level to strengthen decision-making in the health system for perinatal care in South Africa.

CONCLUSION

There is a need to either adapt an existing decision support tool or to develop a tool that will support decision-making at district hospital level towards strengthening the health system for perinatal care in South Africa.

Evidence of Impact: iCCM as a strategy to save lives of children under five

Background

In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the Rapid Access Expansion (RAcE) programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, and Nigeria to increase coverage of diagnostic, treatment, and referral services for malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea among children ages 2-59 months. In 2017, a final evaluation of the six RAcE sites was conducted to determine whether the programme goal was reached. A key evaluation objective was to estimate the reduction in childhood mortality and the number of under-five lives saved over the project period in the RAcE project areas.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate reductions in all-cause child mortality due to changes in coverage of treatment for the integrated community case management (iCCM) illnesses – malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea – while accounting for other changes in maternal and child health interventions in each RAcE project area. Data from RAcE baseline and endline household surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and routine health service data were used in each LiST model. The models yielded estimated change in under-five mortality rates, and estimated number of lives saved per year by malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea treatment. We adjusted the results to estimate the number of lives saved by community health worker (CHW)-provided treatment.

Results

The LiST model accounts for coverage changes in iCCM intervention coverage and other health trends in each project area to estimate mortality reduction and child lives saved. Under five mortality declined in all six RAcE sites, with an average decline of 10 percent. An estimated 6200 under-five lives were saved by malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea treatment in the DRC, Malawi, Niger, and Nigeria, of which approximately 4940 (75 percent) were saved by treatment provided by CHWs. This total excludes Mozambique, where there were no estimated under-five lives saved likely due to widespread stockouts of key medications. In all other project areas, lives saved by CHW-provided treatment contributed substantially to the estimated decline in under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that iCCM is a strategy that can save lives and measurably decrease child mortality in settings where access to health facility services is low and adequate resources for iCCM implementation are provided for CHW services.

Effects of scaling up various community-level interventions on child mortality in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Improving child health remains one of the most significant health challenges in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that accounts for half of the global burden of under-five mortality despite having approximately 13% of the world population and 25% of births globally. Improving access to evidence-based community-level interventions has increasingly been advocated to contribute to reducing child mortality and, thus, help low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) achieve the child health related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target. Nevertheless, the coverage of community-level interventions remains suboptimal. In this study, we estimated the potential impact of scaling up various community-level interventions on child mortality in five East African Community (EAC) countries (i.e., Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania).

METHODS

We identified ten preventive and curative community-level interventions that have been reported to reduce child mortality: Breastfeeding promotion, complementary feeding, vitamin A supplementation, Zinc for treatment of diarrhea, hand washing with soap, hygienic disposal of children's stools, oral rehydration solution (ORS), oral antibiotics for treatment of pneumonia, treatment for moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), and prevention of malaria using insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying (ITN/IRS). Using the Lives Saved Tool, we modeled the impact on child mortality of scaling up these 10 interventions from baseline coverage (2016) to ideal coverage (99%) by 2030 (ideal scale-up scenario) relative to business as usual (BAU) scenario (forecasted coverage based on prior coverage trends). Our outcome measures include number of child deaths prevented.

RESULTS

Compared to BAU scenario, ideal scale-up of the 10 interventions could prevent approximately 74,200 (sensitivity bounds 59,068-88,611) child deaths by 2030 including 10,100 (8210-11,870) deaths in Burundi, 10,300 (7831-12,619) deaths in Kenya, 4350 (3678-4958) deaths in Rwanda, 20,600 (16049-25,162) deaths in Uganda, and 28,900 (23300-34,002) deaths in the United Republic of Tanzania. The top four interventions (oral antibiotics for pneumonia, ORS, hand washing with soap, and treatment for MAM) account for over 75.0% of all deaths prevented in each EAC country: 78.4% in Burundi, 76.0% in Kenya, 81.8% in Rwanda, 91.0% in Uganda and 88.5% in the United Republic of Tanzania.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up interventions that can be delivered at community level by community health workers could contribute to substantial reduction of child mortality in EAC and could help the EAC region achieve child health-related SDG target. Our findings suggest that the top four community-level interventions could account for more than three-quarters of all deaths prevented across EAC countries. Going forward, costs of scaling up each intervention will be estimated to guide policy decisions including health resource allocations in EAC countries.

Projecting stunting and wasting under alternative scenarios in Odisha, India, 2015-2030: a Lives Saved Tool (LiST)-based approach

OBJECTIVE

Although nutrition-specific interventions are designed based on maternal, household and community-level correlates, no attempt has been made to project stunting and wasting and identify intervention priorities in India. The objective of this paper is to model the stunting and wasting in the state of Odisha, India by scaling up maternal and child health interventions under alternative scenarios.

DESIGN

This study primarily used data from National Family Health Survey 4, 2015-2016.

MEASURES

The LiST (Lives Saved Tool) software is used to model the nutritional outcomes and prioritise interventions. The projections were carried out under four alternative scenarios: scenario 1-if the coverage indicators continued based on past trends; scenario 2-scaled up to the level of the richest quintile; scenario 3-scaled up to that of Tamil Nadu; and scenario 4-scaled up to an aspirational coverage level.

RESULTS

In 2015, out of 3.52 million under-5 children in Odisha, around 1.20 million were stunted. By 2030, the numbers of stunted children will be 1.11 million under scenario 1, 1.07 million under scenario 2, 1.09 million under scenario 3 and 0.89 million under scenario 4. The projected stunting level will be 25% under scenario 4 and around 31% under all other scenarios. By 2030, the level of wasting will remain unchanged at 20% under the first three scenarios and 4.3% under scenario 4. Appropriate complementary feeding would avert about half of the total stunting cases under all four scenarios, followed by zinc supplementation. Water connection at home, washing hands with soap and improved sanitation are other effective interventions.

CONCLUSION

Sustaining the maternal and child health interventions, promoting evidence-based stunting and wasting reduction interventions, and a multisectoral approach can achieve the World Health Assembly targets and Sustainable Development Goals of undernutrition in Odisha.

Using equitable impact sensitive tool (EQUIST) to promote implementation of evidence informed policymaking to improve maternal and child health outcomes: a focus on six West African Countries

Background

United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) designed EQUitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) to enable global health community address the issue of equity in maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) and minimize health disparities between the most marginalized population and the better-off. The purpose of this study was to use EQUIST to provide reliable evidence, based on demographic health surveys (DHS) on cost–effectiveness and equitable impact of interventions that can be implemented to improve MNCH outcomes in Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal.

Methods

Using the latest available DHS data sets, we conducted EQUIST Situation Analysis of maternal and child health outcomes in the six countries by sub-national categorization, wealth and by residence. We then identified the poorest population class within each country with the highest maternal and child mortality and performed EQUIST Scenario Analysis of this population to identify intervention package, bottlenecks and strategies to address them, cost of the intervention and strategies as well as the number of deaths avertible.

Results

Under-five mortality was highest in Atlantique (Benin), Sahel (Burkina Faso), Northern (Ghana), Sikasso (Mali), North-West (Nigeria), and Diourbel (Senegal). The number of under-five deaths was considerably higher among the poorest and rural population. Neonatal causes, malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea were responsible for most of the under-five deaths. Ante-partum, intra-partum, and post-partum haemorrhages, and hypertensive disorder, were responsible for highest maternal deaths. The national average for improved water source was highest in Ghana (82%). Insecticide treated nets ownership percentage national average was highest in Benin (73%). Delivery by skilled professional is capable of averting the highest number of under-five and maternal deaths in the six countries. Redeployment/relocation of existing staff was the strategy with highest costs in Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Senegal. Ghana recorded the least cost per capita ($0.39) while the highest cost per capita was recorded in Benin ($4.0).

Conclusion

EQUIST highlights the most vulnerable and deprived children and women needing urgent health interventions as a matter of priority. It will continue to serve as a tool for maximizing the number of lives saved; decreasing health disparities and improving overall cost effectiveness.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-018-0422-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling the effect of a mass radio campaign on child mortality using facility utilisation data and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST): findings from a cluster randomised trial in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

A cluster randomised trial (CRT) in Burkina Faso was the first to demonstrate that a radio campaign increased health-seeking behaviours, specifically antenatal care attendance, health facility deliveries and primary care consultations for children under 5 years.

METHODS

Under-five consultation data by diagnosis was obtained from primary health facilities in trial clusters, from January 2011 to December 2014. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted to assess the intervention effect by time period on under-five consultations for separate diagnosis categories that were targeted by the media campaign. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate the number of under-five lives saved and the per cent reduction in child mortality that might have resulted from increased health service utilisation. Scenarios were generated to estimate the effect of the intervention in the CRT study areas, as well as a national scale-up in Burkina Faso and future scale-up scenarios for national media campaigns in five African countries from 2018 to 2020.

RESULTS

Consultations for malaria symptoms increased by 56% in the first year (95% CI 30% to 88%; p<0.001) of the campaign, 37% in the second year (95% CI 12% to 69%; p=0.003) and 35% in the third year (95% CI 9% to 67%; p=0.006) relative to the increase in the control arm. Consultations for lower respiratory infections increased by 39% in the first year of the campaign (95% CI 22% to 58%; p<0.001), 25% in the second (95% CI 5% to 49%; p=0.010) and 11% in the third year (95% CI -20% to 54%; p=0.525). Diarrhoea consultations increased by 73% in the first year (95% CI 42% to 110%; p<0.001), 60% in the second (95% CI 12% to 129%; p=0.010) and 107% in the third year (95% CI 43% to 200%; p<0.001). Consultations for other diagnoses that were not targeted by the radio campaign did not differ between intervention and control arms. The estimated reduction in under-five mortality attributable to the radio intervention was 9.7% in the first year (uncertainty range: 5.1%-15.1%), 5.7% in the second year and 5.5% in the third year. The estimated number of under-five lives saved in the intervention zones during the trial was 2967 (range: 1110-5741). If scaled up nationally, the estimated reduction in under-five mortality would have been similar (9.2% in year 1, 5.6% in year 2 and 5.5% in year 3), equating to 14 888 under-five lives saved (range: 4832-30 432). The estimated number of lives that could be saved by implementing national media campaigns in other low-income settings ranged from 7205 in Burundi to 21 443 in Mozambique.

CONCLUSION

Evidence from a CRT shows that a child health radio campaign increased under-five consultations at primary health centres for malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea (the leading causes of postneonatal child mortality in Burkina Faso) and resulted in an estimated 7.1% average reduction in under-five mortality per year. These findings suggest important reductions in under-five mortality can be achieved by mass media alone, particularly when conducted at national scale.

Neglected Tropical Disease Control - The Case for Adaptive, Location-specific Solutions

The world is experiencing environmental and social change at an unprecedented rate, with the effects being felt at local, regional, and international scales. This phenomenon may disrupt interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) that operate on the basis of linear scaling and 'one-size-fits-all'. Here we argue that investment in field-based data collection and building modelling capacity is required; that it is important to consider unintended consequences of interventions; that inferences can be drawn from wildlife ecology; and that interventions should become more location-specific. Collectively, these ideas underpin the development of adaptive decision-support tools that are sufficiently flexible to address emerging issues within the Anthropocene.

Reduction in child mortality in Ethiopia: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys

Background

To examine changes in under–5 mortality, coverage of child survival interventions and nutritional status of children in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011. Using the Lives Saved Tool, the impact of changes in coverage of child survival interventions on under–5 lives saved was estimated.

Methods

Estimates of child mortality were generated using three Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys undertaken between 2000 and 2011. Coverage indicators for high impact child health interventions were calculated and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate child lives saved in 2011.

Results

The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years decreased rapidly from 218 child deaths per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval 183 to 252) in the period 1987–1991 to 88 child deaths per 1000 live births in the period 2007–2011 (78 to 98). The prevalence of moderate or severe stunting in children aged 6–35 months also declined significantly. Improvements in the coverage of interventions relevant to child survival in rural areas of Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011 were found for tetanus toxoid, DPT3 and measles vaccination, oral rehydration solution (ORS) and care–seeking for suspected pneumonia. The LiST analysis estimates that there were 60 700 child deaths averted in 2011, primarily attributable to decreases in wasting rates (18%), stunting rates (13%) and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions (13%).

Conclusions

Improvements in the nutritional status of children and increases in coverage of high impact interventions most notably WASH and ORS have contributed to the decline in under–5 mortality in Ethiopia. These proximal determinants however do not fully explain the mortality reduction which is plausibly also due to the synergistic effect of major child health and nutrition policies and delivery strategies.

Using the Lives Saved Tool to aid country planning in meeting mortality targets: a case study from Mali

BACKGROUND

Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali's MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions.

METHODS

The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali's ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention.

RESULTS

If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.

Estimating Lives Saved by Achieving Dietary Micronutrient Adequacy, with a Focus on Vitamin A Intervention Programs in Cameroon

Background: We previously compared the potential effects of different intervention strategies for achieving dietary vitamin A (VA) adequacy. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) permits estimates of lives saved through VA interventions but currently only considers periodic VA supplements (VASs).Objective: We aimed to adapt the LiST method for estimating the mortality impact of VASs to estimate the impact of other VA interventions (e.g., food fortification) on child mortality and to estimate the number of lives saved by VA interventions in 3 macroregions in Cameroon.Methods: We used national dietary intake data to predict the effects of VA intervention programs on the adequacy of VA intake. LiST parameters of population affected fraction and intervention coverage were replaced with estimates of prevalence of inadequate intake and effective coverage (proportion achieving adequate VA intake). We used a model of liver VA stores to derive an estimate of the mortality reduction from achieving dietary VA adequacy; this estimate and a conservative assumption of equivalent mortality reduction for VAS and VA intake were applied to projections for Cameroon.Results: There were 2217-3048 total estimated VA-preventable deaths in year 1, with 58% occurring in the North macroregion. The relation between effective coverage and lives saved differed by year and macroregion due to differences in total deaths, diarrhea burden, and prevalence of low VA intake. Estimates of lives saved by VASs (the intervention common to both methods) were similar with the use of the adapted method (in 2012: North, 743-1021; South, 280-385; Yaoundé and Douala, 146-202) and the "usual" LiST method (North: 697; South: 381; Yaoundé and Douala: 147).Conclusions: Linking effective coverage estimates with an adapted LiST method permits estimation of the effects of combinations of VA programs (beyond VASs only) on child mortality to aid program planning and management. Rigorous program monitoring and evaluation are necessary to confirm predicted impacts.

Modeling the potential impact of emerging innovations on achievement of Sustainable Development Goals related to maternal, newborn, and child health

Background

Innovations that improve the affordability, accessibility, or effectiveness of health care played a major role in the Millennium Development Goal achievements and will be critical for reaching the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) health targets. Mechanisms to identify and prioritize innovations are essential to inform future investment decisions.

Methods

Innovation Countdown 2030 crowdsourced health innovations from around the world and engaged recognized experts to systematically assess their lifesaving potential by 2030. A health impact modeling approach was developed and used to quantify the costs and lives saved for select innovations identified as having great promise for improving maternal, newborn, and child health.

Results

Preventive innovations targeting health conditions with a high mortality burden had the greatest impact in regard to the absolute number of estimated lives saved. The largest projected health impact was for a new tool for small-scale water treatment that automatically chlorinates water to a safe concentration without using electricity or moving parts. An estimated 1.5 million deaths from diarrheal disease among children under five could be prevented by 2030 by scaling up use of this technology. Use of chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care was associated with the second highest number of lives saved.

Conclusions

The results show why a systematic modeling approach that can compare and contrast investment opportunities is important for prioritizing global health innovations. Rigorous impact estimates are needed to allocate limited resources toward the innovations with great potential to advance the SDGs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12962-017-0074-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities 3rd Edition

As part of Disease Control Priorities 3rd Edition, the World Bank will publish a volume on Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health that identifies essential cost-effective health interventions that can be scaled up to reduce maternal, newborn, and child deaths, and stillbirths. This Review summarises the volume's key findings and estimates the effect and cost of expanded implementation of these interventions. Recognising that a continuum of care from the adolescent girl, woman, or mother to child is needed, the volume includes details of preventive and therapeutic health interventions in integrated packages: Maternal and Newborn Health and Child Health (along with folic acid supplementation, a key reproductive health intervention). Scaling up all interventions in these packages from coverage in 2015 to hypothetically immediately achieve 90% coverage would avert 149 000 maternal deaths, 849 000 stillbirths, 1 498 000 neonatal deaths, and 1 515 000 additional child deaths. In alternative calculations that consider only the effects of reducing the number of pregnancies by provision of contraceptive services as part of a Reproductive Health package, meeting 90% of the unmet need for contraception would reduce global births by almost 28 million and consequently avert deaths that could have occurred at 2015 rates of fertility and mortality. Thus, 67 000 maternal deaths, 440 000 neonatal deaths, 473 000 child deaths, and 564 000 stillbirths could be averted from avoided pregnancies. Particularly effective interventions in the Maternal and Newborn Health and Child Health packages would be management of labour and delivery, care of preterm births, and treatment of serious infectious diseases and acute malnutrition. Nearly all of these essential interventions can be delivered by health workers in the community or in primary health centres, which can increase population access to needed services. The annual incremental cost of immediately scaling up these essential interventions would be US$6·2 billion in low-income countries, $12·4 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $8·0 billion in upper-middle-income countries. With the additional funding, greater focus on high-effect integrated interventions and innovations in service delivery, such as task shifting to other groups of health workers and supply and demand incentives, can help rectify major gaps in accessibility and quality of care. In recent decades, reduction of avoidable maternal and child deaths has been a global priority. With continued priority and expansion of essential reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health interventions to high coverage, equity, and quality, as well as interventions to address underlying problems such as women's low status in society and violence against women, these deaths and substantial morbidity can be largely eliminated in another generation.

Countdown to 2015 country case studies: what have we learned about processes and progress towards MDGs 4 and 5?

Background

Countdown to 2015 was a multi-institution consortium tracking progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Case studies to explore factors contributing to progress (or lack of progress) in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) were undertaken in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This paper aims to identify cross-cutting themes on how and why these countries achieved or did not achieve MDG progress.

Methods

Applying a standard evaluation framework, analyses of impact, coverage and equity were undertaken, including a mixed methods analysis of how these were influenced by national context and coverage determinants (including health systems, policies and financing).

Results

The majority (7/10) of case study countries met MDG-4 with over two-thirds reduction in child mortality, but none met MDG-5a for 75 % reduction in maternal mortality, although six countries achieved >75 % of this target. None achieved MDG-5b regarding reproductive health. Rates of reduction in neonatal mortality were half or less that for post-neonatal child mortality. Coverage increased most for interventions administered at lower levels of the health system (e.g., immunisation, insecticide treated nets), and these experienced substantial political and financial support. These interventions were associated with ~30–40 % of child lives saved in 2012 compared to 2000, in Ethiopia, Malawi, Peru and Tanzania. Intrapartum care for mothers and newborns -- which require higher-level health workers, more infrastructure, and increased community engagement -- showed variable increases in coverage, and persistent equity gaps. Countries have explored different approaches to address these problems, including shifting interventions to the community setting and tasks to lower-level health workers.

Conclusions

These Countdown case studies underline the importance of consistent national investment and global attention for achieving improvements in RMNCH. Interventions with major global investments achieved higher levels of coverage, reduced equity gaps and improvements in associated health outcomes. Given many competing priorities for the Sustainable Development Goals era, it is essential to maintain attention to the unfinished RMNCH agenda, particularly health systems improvements for maternal and neonatal outcomes where progress has been slower, and to invest in data collection for monitoring progress and for rigorous analyses of how progress is achieved in different contexts.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3401-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Neglected value of small population-based surveys: a comparison with demographic and health survey data

We believe that global health practice and evaluation operate with misleading assumptions about lack of reliability of small population-based health surveys (district level and below), leading managers and decision-makers to under-use this valuable information and programmatic tool and to rely on health information from large national surveys when neither timing nor available data meet their needs. This paper uses a unique opportunity for comparison between a knowledge, practice, and coverage (KPC) household survey and Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS) carried out in overlapping timeframes to disprove these enduring suspicions. Our analysis shows that the KPC provides coverage estimates consistent with the RDHS estimates for the same geographic areas. We discuss cases of divergence between estimates. Application of the Lives Saved Tool to the KPC results also yields child mortality estimates comparable with DHS-measured mortality. We draw three main lessons from the study and conclude with recommendations for challenging unfounded assumptions against the value of small household coverage surveys, which can be a key resource in the arsenal of local health programmers.

Using the Lives Saved Tool as part of evaluations of community case management programs

Background

Integrated community case management (iCCM) has been recommended by the World Health Organization to reduce mortality among children in populations with limited access to facility–based health care providers. Although many countries have introduced iCCM, interpretation of the impact is difficult due to many other activities occurring in the community. This paper suggests a method for using the Lives Saved Tool to model the independent impact of iCCM on child mortality.

Model

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a multi–cause model of mortality which allows users to look at the potential impacts of one or many interventions on one or many causes of death without double counting their impact. LiST uses changes in intervention coverage and cause–specific effectiveness estimates on mortality and risk factors to model overall changes in mortality as well as to attribute mortality reduction to specific interventions. Collecting data on the source of the care seeking behaviors is critical to being able to model and interpret the changes observed.

Discussion

The complexity of implementation of iCCM in the environment of broader health changes requires modeling to understand the program specific impacts. Using LiST results as additional data in combination with observed coverage change and mortality reduction can help explain the isolated impact of a given iCCM program when other changes are ongoing. LiST is unable to determine why the changes in health care seeking behaviors occur, but can be useful in helping to explain whether or not the changes were beneficial.

The projected effect of scaling up midwifery

We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate deaths averted if midwifery was scaled up in 78 countries classified into three tertiles using the Human Development Index (HDI). We selected interventions in LiST to encompass the scope of midwifery practice, including prepregnancy, antenatal, labour, birth, and post-partum care, and family planning. Modest (10%), substantial (25%), or universal (95%) scale-up scenarios from present baseline levels were all found to reduce maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths by 2025 in all countries tested. With universal coverage of midwifery interventions for maternal and newborn health, excluding family planning, for the countries with the lowest HDI, 61% of all maternal, fetal, and neonatal deaths could be prevented. Family planning alone could prevent 57% of all deaths because of reduced fertility and fewer pregnancies. Midwifery with both family planning and interventions for maternal and newborn health could avert a total of 83% of all maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. The inclusion of specialist care in the scenarios resulted in an increased number of deaths being prevented, meaning that midwifery care has the greatest effect when provided within a functional health system with effective referral and transfer mechanisms to specialist care.

Who has been caring for the baby?

Nearly a decade ago, The Lancet published the Neonatal Survival Series, with an ambitious call for integration of newborn care across the continuum of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health and nutrition (RMNCH). In this first of five papers in the Every Newborn Series, we consider what has changed during this decade, assessing progress on the basis of a systematic policy heuristic including agenda-setting, policy formulation and adoption, leadership and partnership, implementation, and evaluation of effect. Substantial progress has been made in agenda setting and policy formulation for newborn health, as witnessed by the shift from maternal and child health to maternal, newborn, and child health as a standard. However, investment and large-scale implementation have been disappointingly small, especially in view of the size of the burden and potential for rapid change and synergies throughout the RMNCH continuum. Moreover, stillbirths remain invisible on the global health agenda. Hence that progress in improvement of newborn survival and reduction of stillbirths lags behind that of maternal mortality and deaths for children aged 1-59 months is not surprising. Faster progress is possible, but with several requirements: clear communication of the interventions with the greatest effect and how to overcome bottlenecks for scale-up; national leadership, and technical capacity to integrate and implement these interventions; global coordination of partners, especially within countries, in provision of technical assistance and increased funding; increased domestic investment in newborn health, and access to specific commodities and equipment where needed; better data to monitor progress, with local data used for programme improvement; and accountability for results at all levels, including demand from communities and mortality targets in the post-2015 framework. Who will step up during the next decade to ensure decision making in countries leads to implementation of stillbirth and newborn health interventions within RMNCH programmes?

Using the lives saved tool (LiST) to model mHealth impact on neonatal survival in resource-limited settings

While the importance of mHealth scale-up has been broadly emphasized in the mHealth community, it is necessary to guide scale up efforts and investment in ways to help achieve the mortality reduction targets set by global calls to action such as the Millennium Development Goals, not merely to expand programs. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)–an evidence-based modeling software–to identify priority areas for maternal and neonatal health services, by formulating six individual and combined interventions scenarios for two countries, Bangladesh and Uganda. Our findings show that skilled birth attendance and increased facility delivery as targets for mHealth strategies are likely to provide the biggest mortality impact relative to other intervention scenarios. Although further validation of this model is desirable, tools such as LiST can help us leverage the benefit of mHealth by articulating the most appropriate delivery points in the continuum of care to save lives.

Control of household air pollution for child survival: estimates for intervention impacts

Background

Exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels affects 2.8 billion people in developing countries, including children and pregnant women. The aim of this review is to propose intervention estimates for child survival outcomes linked to HAP.

Methods

Systematic reviews with meta-analysis were conducted for ages 0-59 months, for child pneumonia, adverse pregnancy outcomes, stunting and all-cause mortality. Evidence for each outcome was assessed against Bradford-Hill viewpoints, and GRADE used for certainty about intervention effect size for which all odds ratios (OR) are presented as protective effects.

Results

Reviews found evidence linking HAP exposure with child ALRI, low birth weight (LBW), stillbirth, preterm birth, stunting and all-cause mortality. Most studies were observational and rated low/very low in GRADE despite strong causal evidence for some outcomes; only one randomised trial was eligible.Intervention effect (OR) estimates of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.75) for ALRI, 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) for LBW and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for stillbirth are proposed, specific outcomes for which causal evidence was sufficient. Exposure-response evidence suggests this is a conservative estimate for ALRI risk reduction expected with sustained, low exposure. Statistically significant protective ORs were also found for stunting [OR=0.79 (0.70, 0.89)], and in one study of pre-term birth [OR=0.70 (0.54, 0.90)], indicating these outcomes would also likely be reduced. Five studies of all-cause mortality had an OR of 0.79 (0.70, 0.89), but heterogenity precludes a reliable estimate for mortality impact. Although interventions including clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves are available and can deliver low exposure levels, significant challenges remain in achieving sustained use at scale among low-income households.

Conclusions

Reducing exposure to HAP could substantially reduce the risk of several child survival outcomes, including fatal pneumonia, and the proposed effects could be achieved by interventions delivering low exposures. Larger impacts are anticipated if WHO air quality guidelines are met. To achieve these benefits, clean fuels should be adopted where possible, and for other households the most effective solid fuel stoves promoted. To strengthen evidence, new studies with thorough exposure assessment are required, along with evaluation of the longer-term acceptance and impacts of interventions.

Using LiST to model potential reduction in under-five mortality in Burkina Faso

Background

Under-five mortality remains high in Burkina Faso with significant reductions required to meet Millennium Development Goal 4. The Acceleration for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health is being implemented to reduce child mortality in the North and Center North regions of Burkina Faso.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool was used to determine the percent reduction in child mortality that can be achieved given baseline levels of coverage for interventions targeted by the Acceleration. Data were obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey 2003, the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006, and the baseline survey for the program from 2010. In addition to the scale up, scenarios were generated to examine the outcome if secular trends in intervention coverage change persisted and if intervention coverage levels remained constant.

Results

Scaling up all interventions to their target coverage level showed a potential reduction in under-five mortality of 22 percent, with district specific reductions in mortality ranging from 14 to 25 percent. The percent reduction in under-five mortality that might be attributable to the program was 16 percent and varied between 14 and 19 percent by district. Treatment of diarrhea with ORS and malaria with ACTs accounted for the majority of the reduction in mortality.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that significant reductions in under-five mortality may be achieved through the scale-up of the Acceleration. The Ministry of Health and its partners in Burkina Faso should continue their efforts to scale up these proven interventions to achieve and even exceed target levels for coverage.

Reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Pakistan: challenges and opportunities

Globally, Pakistan has the third highest burden of maternal, fetal, and child mortality. It has made slow progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5 and in addressing common social determinants of health. The country also has huge challenges of political fragility, complex security issues, and natural disasters. We undertook an in-depth analysis of Pakistan's progress towards MDGs 4 and 5 and the principal determinants of health in relation to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health and nutrition. We reviewed progress in relation to new and existing public sector programmes and the challenges posed by devolution in Pakistan. Notwithstanding the urgent need to tackle social determinants such as girls' education, empowerment, and nutrition in Pakistan, we assessed the effect of systematically increasing coverage of various evidence-based interventions on populations at risk (by residence or poverty indices). We specifically focused on scaling up interventions using delivery platforms to reach poor and rural populations through community-based strategies. Our model indicates that with successful implementation of these strategies, 58% of an estimated 367,900 deaths (15,900 maternal, 169,000 newborn, 183,000 child deaths) and 49% of an estimated 180,000 stillbirths could be prevented in 2015.

Putting health metrics into practice: using the disability-adjusted life year for strategic decision making

BACKGROUND

Implementing organizations are pressured to be accountable for performance. Many health impact metrics present limitations for priority setting; they do not permit comparisons across different interventions or health areas. In response, Population Services International (PSI) adopted the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted as its bottom-line performance metric. While international standards exist for calculating DALYs to determine burden of disease (BOD), PSI's use of DALYs averted is novel. It uses DALYs averted to assess and compare the health impact of its country programs, and to understand the effectiveness of a portfolio of interventions. This paper describes how the adoption of DALYs averted influenced organizational strategy and presents the advantages and constraints of using the metric.

METHODS

Health impact data from 2001-2011 were analyzed by program area and geographic region to measure PSI's performance against its goal of doubling health impact between 2007-2011. Analyzing 10 years of data permitted comparison with previous years' performance. A case study of PSI's Asia and Eastern European (A/EE) region, and PSI/Laos, is presented to illustrate how the adoption of DALYs averted affected strategic decision making.

RESULTS

Between 2007-2011, PSI's programs doubled the total number of DALYs averted from 2002-2006. Most DALYs averted were within malaria, followed by HIV/AIDS and family planning (FP). The performance of PSI's A/EE region relative to other regions declined with the switch to DALYs averted. As a result, the region made a strategic shift to align its work with countries' BOD. In PSI/Laos, this redirection led to better-targeted programs and an approximate 50% gain in DALYs averted from 2009-2011.

CONCLUSIONS

PSI's adoption of DALYs averted shifted the organization's strategic direction away from product sales and toward BOD. Now, many strategic decisions are based on "BOD-relevance," the share of the BOD that interventions can potentially address. This switch resulted in more targeted strategies and greater program diversification. Challenges remain in convincing donors to support interventions in disease areas that are relevant to a country's BOD, and in developing modeling methodologies. The global health community will benefit from the use of standard health impact metrics to improve strategic decision making and more effectively respond to the changing global burden of disease.

Optimizing community case management strategies to achieve equitable reduction of childhood pneumonia mortality: An application of Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) in five low- and middle-income countries

Background

The aim of this study was to populate the Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) framework with all necessary data and conduct the first implementation of EQUIST in studying cost–effectiveness of community case management of childhood pneumonia in 5 low– and middle–income countries with relation to equity impact.

Methods

Wealth quintile–specific data were gathered or modelled for all contributory determinants of the EQUIST framework, namely: under–five mortality rate, cost of intervention, intervention effectiveness, current coverage of intervention and relative disease distribution. These were then combined statistically to calculate the final outcome of the EQUIST model for community case management of childhood pneumonia: US$ per life saved, in several different approaches to scaling–up.

Results

The current ‘mainstream’ approach to scaling–up of interventions is never the most cost–effective. Community–case management appears to strongly support an ‘equity–promoting’ approach to scaling–up, displaying the highest levels of cost–effectiveness in interventions targeted at the poorest quintile of each study country, although absolute cost differences vary by context.

Conclusions

The relationship between cost–effectiveness and equity impact is complex, with many determinants to consider. One important way to increase intervention cost–effectiveness in poorer quintiles is to improve the efficiency and quality of delivery. More data are needed in all areas to increase the accuracy of EQUIST–based estimates.

Addressing inequity to achieve the maternal and child health millennium development goals: looking beyond averages

BACKGROUND

Inequity in access to and use of child and maternal health interventions is impeding progress towards the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals. This study explores the potential health gains and equity impact if a set of priority interventions for mothers and under fives were scaled up to reach national universal coverage targets for MDGs in Tanzania.

METHODS

We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate potential reductions in maternal and child mortality and the number of lives saved across wealth quintiles and between rural and urban settings. High impact maternal and child health interventions were modelled for a five-year scale up, by linking intervention coverage, effectiveness and cause of mortality using data from Tanzania. Concentration curves were drawn and the concentration index estimated to measure the equity impact of the scale up.

RESULTS

In the poorest population quintiles in Tanzania, the lives of more than twice as many mothers and under-fives were likely to be saved, compared to the richest quintile. Scaling up coverage to equal levels across quintiles would reduce inequality in maternal and child mortality from a pro rich concentration index of -0.11 (maternal) and -0.12 (children) to a more equitable concentration index of -0,03 and -0.03 respectively. In rural areas, there would likely be an eight times greater reduction in maternal deaths than in urban areas and a five times greater reduction in child deaths than in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up priority maternal and child health interventions to equal levels would potentially save far more lives in the poorest populations, and would accelerate equitable progress towards maternal and child health MDGs.

Understanding the determinants of the complex interplay between cost-effectiveness and equitable impact in maternal and child mortality reduction

Background

One of the most unexpected outcomes arising from the efforts towards maternal and child mortality reduction is that all too often the objective success has been coupled with increased inequity in the population. The aim of this study is to analyze the determinants of the complex interplay between cost-effectiveness and equity and suggest strategies that will promote an impact on mortality that reduce population child health inequities.

Methods

We developed a conceptual framework that exposes the nature of the links between the five key determinants that need to be taken into account when planning equitable impact. These determinants are: (i) efficiency of intervention scale-up (requires knowledge of differential increase in cost of intervention scale-up by equity strata in the population); (ii) effectiveness of intervention (requires understanding of differential effectiveness of interventions by equity strata in the population); (iii) the impact on mortality (requires knowledge of differential mortality levels by equity strata, and understanding the differences in cause composition of overall mortality in different equity strata); (iv) cost-effectiveness (compares the initial cost and the resulting impact on mortality); (v) equity structure of the population. The framework is presented visually as a four-quadrant graph.

Results

We use the proposed framework to demonstrate why the relationship between cost-effectiveness and equitable impact of an intervention cannot be intuitively predicted or easily planned. The relationships between the five determinants are complex, often nonlinear, context-specific and intervention-specific. We demonstrate that there will be instances when an equity-promoting approach, ie, trying to reach for the poorest and excluded in the population with health interventions, will also be the most cost-effective approach. However, there will be cases in which this will be entirely unfeasible, and where equity-neutral or even inequity-promoting approaches may be substantially more cost-effective. In those cases, investments into health system development among the poorest that would increase the quality and reduce the cost of intervention delivery would be required before intervention scale-up is planned.

Conclusions

The relationships between the most important determinants of cost-effectiveness and equitable impact of health interventions used to reduce maternal and child mortality are highly complex, and the effect on equity cannot be predicted intuitively, or by using simple linear models.

The comparative cost-effectiveness of an equity-focused approach to child survival, health, and nutrition: a modelling approach

Progress on child mortality and undernutrition has seen widening inequities and a concentration of child deaths and undernutrition in the most deprived communities, threatening the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Conversely, a series of recent process and technological innovations have provided effective and efficient options to reach the most deprived populations. These trends raise the possibility that the perceived trade-off between equity and efficiency no longer applies for child health--that prioritising services for the poorest and most marginalised is now more effective and cost effective than mainstream approaches. We tested this hypothesis with a mathematical-modelling approach by comparing the cost-effectiveness in terms of child deaths and stunting events averted between two approaches (from 2011-15 in 14 countries and one province): an equity-focused approach that prioritises the most deprived communities, and a mainstream approach that is representative of current strategies. We combined some existing models, notably the Marginal Budgeting for Bottlenecks Toolkit and the Lives Saved Tool, to do our analysis. We showed that, with the same level of investment, disproportionately higher effects are possible by prioritising the poorest and most marginalised populations, for averting both child mortality and stunting. Our results suggest that an equity-focused approach could result in sharper decreases in child mortality and stunting and higher cost-effectiveness than mainstream approaches, while reducing inequities in effective intervention coverage, health outcomes, and out-of-pocket spending between the most and least deprived groups and geographic areas within countries. Our findings should be interpreted with caution due to uncertainties around some of the model parameters and baseline data. Further research is needed to address some of these gaps in the evidence base. Strategies for improving child nutrition and survival, however, should account for an increasing prioritisation of the most deprived communities and the increased use of community-based interventions.

Global policy and programme guidance on maternal nutrition: what exists, the mechanisms for providing it, and how to improve them?

Undernutrition in one form or another affects the majority of women of reproductive age in most developing countries. However, there are few or no effective programmes trying to solve maternal undernutrition problems. The purpose of the paper is to examine global policy and programme guidance mechanisms for nutrition, what their content is with regard to maternal nutrition in particular, as well as how these might be improved. Almost all countries have committed themselves politically to ensuring the right of pregnant and lactating women to good nutrition through the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women. Despite this, the World Health Organization (WHO) has not endorsed any policy commitments with regard to maternal nutrition. The only policy guidance coming from the various technical departments of WHO relates to the control of maternal anaemia. There is no policy or programme guidance concerning issues of maternal thinness, weight gain during pregnancy and/or low birthweight prevention. Few if any countries have maternal nutrition programmes beyond those for maternal anaemia, and most of those are not effective. The lack of importance given to maternal nutrition is related in part to a weakness of evidence, related to the difficulty of getting ethical clearance, as well as a generalised tendency to downplay the importance of those interventions found to be efficacious. No priority has been given to implementing existing policy and programme guidance for the control of maternal anaemia largely because of a lack of any dedicated funding, linked to a lack of Millennium Development Goals indicator status. This is partly due to the poor evidence base, as well as to the common belief that maternal anaemia programmes were not effective, even if efficacious. The process of providing evidence-based policy and programme guidance to member states is currently being revamped and strengthened by the Department of Nutrition for Health and Development of WHO through the Nutrition Guidance Expert Advisory Group processes. How and if programme guidance, as well as policy commitment for improved maternal nutrition, will be strengthened through the Nutrition Guidance Expert Advisory Group process is as yet unclear. The global movement to increase investment in programmes aimed at maternal and child undernutrition called Scaling Up Nutrition offers an opportunity to build developing country experience with efforts to improve nutrition during pregnancy and lactation. All member states are being encouraged by the World Health Assembly to scale-up efforts to improve maternal infant and young child nutrition. Hopefully Ministries of Health in countries most affected by maternal and child undernutrition will take leadership in the development of such plans, and ensure that the control of anaemia during pregnancy is given a great priority among these actions, as well as building programme experience with improved nutrition during pregnancy and lactation. For this to happen it is essential that donor support is assured, even if only to spearhead a few flagship countries.