Predictors for length of hospital stay in patients with community-acquired pneumonia: results from a Swiss multicenter study

Deprescribing of proton pump inhibitors in older patients: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Over-prescribing of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) is widely observed in older patients. Clinical findings have showed that deprescribing service significantly decreased inappropriate PPIs utilization. We aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of PPI deprescribing service from the perspective of Hong Kong public healthcare provider. A decision-analytic model was constructed to examine the clinical and economic outcomes of PPI deprescribing service (deprescribing group) and usual care (UC group) in a hypothetical cohort of older PPI-users aged ≥65 years in the ambulatory care setting. The model inputs were retrieved from literature and public data. The model time-frame was one-year. Base-case analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed. Primary model outcomes were direct medical cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) loss. In base-case analysis, the deprescribing service (versus UC) reduced total direct medical cost by USD235 and saved 0.0249 QALY per PPI user evaluated. The base-case results were robust to variation of all model inputs in one-way sensitivity analysis. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the deprescribing group was accepted as cost-effective (versus the UC group) in 100% of the 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the PPI deprescribing service saved QALYs and reduced total direct medical cost in older PPIs users, and showed a high probability to be accepted as the cost-effective option from the perspective of public healthcare provider in Hong Kong.

Focus on Pneumonia After Organ Transplantation: Is There a Need for Specific Medical Care in the Emergency Department?

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a major cause of hospitalization and has a substantial impact on health care costs. Diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia in solid organ transplant (SOT) patients remain a challenge for clinicians in the emergency department. This study aimed to evaluate demographic features, clinical patterns, history of hospitalization, and diagnosis of adult patients after organ(s) transplantation (liver, kidney, pancreas) with severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization. The aim is to determine whether patients undergoing SOT receive or require specific care and whether they need to be prioritized.

METHOD

This was a single-center observational study of adult patients after SOT with severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization. The data set for the analysis included only patients with pneumonia as the main reason for hospitalization. The diagnosis of pneumonia was suspected based on the American Thoracic Society criteria.

RESULTS

The study revealed that the standard of care for patients with a history of SOT did not significantly differ from care provided to the non-SOT patients with pneumonia admitted to the same hospital during a 94-week period.

CONCLUSION

There were notable differences, such as post-transplant patients being transferred more quickly to the hospital ward, having longer hospital stays, and receiving antibiotics earlier than the non-SOT group.

Predictors of Length of Stay, Rehospitalization and Mortality in Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) represents one of the leading causes of hospitalization and has a substantial impact on the financial burden of healthcare. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the length of hospital stay (LOHS), rehospitalization and mortality of patients admitted for CAP.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted with patients presenting to a Swiss public hospital between January 2019 and December 2019. Zero-truncated negative binomial and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 300 patients were analyzed (median 78 years, IQR [67.56, 85.50] and 53% males) with an average LOHS of 7 days (IQR [5.00, 9.00]). Of the 300 patients, 31.6% (97/300) were re-hospitalized within 6 months, 2.7% (8/300) died within 30 days and 11.7% (35/300) died within 1 year. The results showed that sex (IRR = 0.877, 95% CI = 0.776-0.992, p-value = 0.036), age (IRR = 1.007, 95% CI = 1.002-1.012, p-value = 0.003), qSOFA score (IRR = 1.143, 95% CI = 1.049-1.246, p-value = 0.002) and atypical pneumonia (IRR = 1.357, 95% CI = 1.012-1.819, p-value = 0.04) were predictive of LOHS. Diabetes (OR = 2.149, 95% CI = 1.104-4.172, p-value = 0.024), a higher qSOFA score (OR = 1.958, 95% CI = 1.295-3.002, p-value = 0.002) and rehabilitation after discharge (OR = 2.222, 95% CI = 1.017-4.855, p-value = 0.044) were associated with a higher chance of being re-hospitalized within 6 months, whereas mortality within 30 days and within one year were both associated with older age (OR = 1.248, 95% CI = 1.056-1.562, p-value = 0.026 and OR = 1.073, 95% CI = 1.025-1.132, p-value = 0.005, respectively) and the presence of a cancer diagnosis (OR = 32.671, 95% CI = 4.787-369.1, p-value = 0.001 and OR = 4.408, 95% CI = 1.680-11.43, p-value = 0.002, respectively).

CONCLUSION

This study identified routinely available predictors for LOHS, rehospitalization and mortality in patients with CAP, which may further advance our understanding of CAP and thereby improve patient management, discharge planning and hospital costs.

Short treatment duration for community-acquired pneumonia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Lower respiratory tract infections are one of the most common indications for antibiotic use in community and hospital settings. Usual guidelines for adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) recommend 5-7 days of antibiotic treatment. In daily practice, physicians often prescribe 9-10 days of antibiotic treatment. Among available strategies to decrease antibiotic use, possibly preventing the emergence of bacterial resistance, reducing treatment durations is the safest and the most acceptable to clinicians. We aim to review data evaluating the efficacy of short antibiotic duration in adult CAP and which criteria can help clinicians to reduce antibiotic treatment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several studies and meta-analyses demonstrated that the treatment duration of 7 days or less was sufficient for CAP. Two trials found that 3-day treatments were effective, even in hospitalized CAP.To customize and shorten duration, clinical and biological criteria have been studied and reflect patient's response. Indeed, stability criteria were recently shown to be effective to discontinue antibiotic treatment. Procalcitonin was also studied but never compared with clinical criteria.

SUMMARY

Treatment duration for CAP is still under debate, but several studies support short durations. Clinical criteria could be possibly used to discontinue antibiotic treatment.

Adherence to use of blood cultures according to current national guidelines and their impact in patients with community acquired pneumonia: A retrospective cohort

BACKGROUND

Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most frequent cause of mortality secondary to infectious etiologies. Recommendations about the use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of CAP has been a contentious topic of debate and ever-changing recommendations.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted in a community teaching hospital. All the patients that were admitted with a diagnosis of CAP, between January and December of 2019 were included. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were obtained. Blood cultures results were obtained, and it was evaluated if they were done in compliance with current recommendations by the Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA).

RESULTS

721 patients were included in the study. Median age was 68 years and 50% of the patients were male (n = 293). Patients presented from home (84%) and the most common comorbidities were hypertension and diabetes (68% and 31%). 96 patients had positive blood culture and 34% (n = 247) of all the blood cultures were adequately ordered. 80 patients died or went to hospice and the median length of hospital stay in our cohort was 7 days. The multivariate model showed that mortality was associated with positive blood cultures (OR = 3.1 95%CI 1.63-5.87) and appropriateness of blood cultures (OR = 2.96 95% CI 1.2-5.7).

CONCLUSION

Adequate use of blood cultures in patients with CAP might have some association with the outcomes of this disease. However, a prospective study evaluating the utility of this test following current IDSA recommendations is needed to understand their impact in mortality and morbidity.

Comparison of Length of Hospital Stay for Community-Acquired Infections Due to Enteric Pathogens, Influenza Viruses and Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hungary

Community-acquired infections (CAI) can affect the duration of care and mortality of patients. Therefore, we aimed to investigate these as well as factors influencing the length of hospital stay in patients with CAI due to enteric pathogens, influenza viruses and multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria. We obtained data on 531 patients with CAI from the medical databases of a Hungarian university hospital and analyzed their characteristics using a regression model. Patients with MDR bacterial infection had the highest mortality (26.24%) and they stayed significantly longer in the hospital than cases with other CAIs. Our results showed that infection by Clostridioides difficile (odds ratio (OR): 6.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-47.48; p = 0.047), MDR Escherichia coli (OR: 7.64, 95% CI: 1.24-47.17; p = 0.029), MDR Klebsiella spp. (OR: 7.35, 95% CI: 1.15-47.07; p = 0.035) and hospitalization in the department of pulmonology (OR: 5.48, 95% CI: 1.38-21.76; p = 0.016) and surgery (OR: 4.19, 95% CI: 1.18-14.81; p = 0.026) significantly increased, whereas female sex (OR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.97; p = 0.037) and hospitalization in the department of pediatrics (OR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.04-0.64; p = 0.009) decreased the odds of staying in the hospital for more than 6 days. Our findings provide new information on the epidemiology of CAI and can contribute to the development of public health programs that decrease the burden of infections acquired in the community.

Reduced renal function is associated with prolonged hospitalization in frail older patients with non-severe pneumonia

Objective

Pneumonia is a disease with high morbidity and mortality among older individuals in Japan. In practice, most older patients with pneumonia are not required ventilatory management and are not necessarily in critical respiratory condition. However, prolonged hospitalization itself is considered to be a serious problem even in these patients with non-critical pneumonia and have negative and critical consequences such as disuse syndrome in older patients. Therefore, it is essential to examine the factors involved in redundant hospital stays for older hospitalized patients with non-severe pneumonia, many of whom are discharged alive.

Method

We examined hospitalized patients diagnosed with pneumonia who were 65 years and older in our facility between February 2017 and March 2020. A longer length of stay (LOS) was defined in cases in which exceeded the 80th percentile of the hospitalization period for all patients was exceeded, and all other cases with a shorter hospitalization were defined as a shorter LOS. In a multivariate logistic regression model, factors determining longer LOSs were analyzed using significant variables in univariate analysis and clinically relevant variables which could interfere with renal function, including fasting period, time to start rehabilitation, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score of 2 or higher, bed-ridden state.

Results

We analyzed 104 eligible participants, and the median age was 86 (interquartile range, 82–91) years. Overall, 31 patients (30.7%) were bed-ridden, and 37 patients (35.6%) were nursing-home residents. Patients with a Clinical Frailty Scale score of 4 or higher, considered clinically frail, accounted for 93.2% of all patients. In multivariate analysis, for a decrease of 5 ml/min/1.73m² in eGFR, the adjusted odds ratios for longer LOSs were 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.44) after adjusting for confounders.

Conclusion

Reduced renal function at admission has a significant impact on prolonged hospital stay among older patients with non-severe pneumonia. Thoughtful consideration should be given to the frail older pneumonia patients with reduced renal function or with chronic kidney disease as a comorbidity at the time of hospitalization to prevent the progression of geriatric syndrome associated with prolonged hospitalization.

Association of Serum Albumin and Copeptin with Early Clinical Deterioration and Instability in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: There is a paucity of data on biomarkers for the early deterioration and clinical instability of patients in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), as treatment failure occurs in the first seven days in 90% of patients. Aim: To evaluate serum albumin and copeptin with CURB-65, PSI scoring and ATS/IDSA minor criteria for the prediction of early mortality or ICU-admission (7 days) and clinical instability after 72 h. Methods: In 100 consecutive hospitalized adult CAP patients, PSI-scores, CURB-65 scores, ATS/IDSA 2007 minor criteria, copeptin and albumin on admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission. Predictive powers of albumin and copeptin were tested with ROC curves and ICU-free survival probability was tested using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Results: Albumin was lower and copeptin higher in patients with short-term adverse outcomes (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that albumin [HR (95% CI): 0.41 (0.18−0.94, p = 0.034)] and copeptin [HR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.03−3.67, p = 0.042)] were independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission (7 days). The Kaplan−Meier analysis observed that high copeptin (>27.12 ng/mL) and low albumin levels (<2.85 g/dL) had a lower (p < 0.001) survival probability. The diagnostic accuracy of albumin was better than copeptin. The inclusion of albumin and copeptin into ATS/IDSA minor criteria significantly improved their predictive power. Conclusions: Both biomarkers serum albumin and copeptin can predict early deterioration and clinical instability in hospitalized CAP patients and increase the prognostic power of the traditional clinical scoring systems.

Change for the Better: Severe Pneumonia at the Emergency Department

This is a single-centre observational study of adult patients with severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization conducted at the emergency department. During the observation period (94 weeks), 398 patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia and required further treatment at the hospital. The median age of patients was 73 years. About 65% of patients had at least one chronic comorbidity. Almost 30% of patients had cardiovascular disorders, and 13% had diabetes mellitus. The average Emergency Department length of stay was 3.56 days. The average length of hospitalization was 15.8 days. Overall, 94% of patients treated for pneumonia received a beta-lactam antibiotic. The median time from ED admission to the administration of the first dose of antimicrobial agent was less than 6 h. Microbiology test samples were obtained from 48.7% patients. Gram-positive cocci were isolated most commonly (52.9%) from blood samples. Biological material from the lower respiratory tract was collected from 8.3% of patients, and from 47.2% of positive samples, fungi were cultured. The urine samples were obtained from 35.9% patients, and Gram-negative rods (76%) were isolated most commonly. Overall, 16.1% of patients died during the hospitalization. The mean age of patients who died was 79 years. This observational study is the first single-centre study conducted as part of the Polish Emergency Department Research Organization (PEDRO) project. It aims to provide up-to-date information about patients with pneumonia in order to improve medical care and develop local diagnostic and therapeutic recommendations.

In-hospital hyperglycemia but not diabetes mellitus alone is associated with increased in-hospital mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP): a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies prior to COVID-19

The objective of this review was to quantify the association between diabetes, hyperglycemia, and outcomes in patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Two investigators independently screened records identified in the PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases. Cohort and case-control studies quantitatively evaluating associations between diabetes and in-hospital hyperglycemia with outcomes in adults admitted to hospital with CAP were included. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale, effect size using random-effects models, and heterogeneity using I2 statistics. Thirty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Hyperglycemia was associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (crude OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.84). There was no association between diabetes status and in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.51), 30-day mortality (adjusted OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.67), or ICU admission (crude OR 1.91, 95% CI 0.74 to 4.95). Diabetes was associated with increased mortality in all studies reporting >90-day postdischarge mortality and with longer length of stay only for studies reporting crude (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.01) results. In adults hospitalized with CAP, in-hospital hyperglycemia but not diabetes alone is associated with increased in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. Diabetes status is associated with increased >90-day postdischarge mortality. Implications for management are that in-hospital hyperglycemia carries a greater risk for in-hospital morbidity and mortality than diabetes alone in patients admitted with non-COVID-19 CAP. Evaluation of strategies enabling timely and effective management of in-hospital hyperglycemia in CAP is warranted.

Impact of weekend admission and changes in treating team on patient flow and outcomes in adults admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

The effect of workflow factors, such as timing of admission and changes in treating team, on patient outcomes remains inconclusive.

AIMS

To investigate the impact of weekend admission and changes in treating team on four pre-defined outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

METHODS

We performed an observational cohort study by utilising prospective longitudinal data collected during the IMPROVE-GAP trial, a stepped-wedge randomised study investigating an evidence-based bundle of care in the management of CAP. We assessed the effect of two exposure variables, day of admission and change of treating team, on four pre-specified outcomes: (i) length of stay; (ii) time to clinical stability; (iii) readmission within 30 days; and (iv) mortality at 30 days. Our analysis was restricted to patients with a primary diagnosis of CAP and employed multivariable Cox regression and logistic regression to adjust for potential measured confounders.

RESULTS

Of 753 participants, 224 (29.7%) were admitted on the weekend and 71 (9.4%) changed treating team during admission. Weekend admissions had significantly longer hospital stays than weekday admissions (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval; P-value) 0.82 (0.70-0.98; 0.03)) and took longer to reach clinical stability (0.80 (0.68-0.95; 0.01)). Change of treating team doubled the odds of readmission at 30 days (odds ratio 1.95 (1.08-3.58; 0.03)).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest workflow factors can negatively impact both health service and patient outcomes. Systems interventions aimed at improving out of hours service and reducing changes in treating team should be considered.

Length of hospital stay among oldest-old patients in acute geriatric ward

PURPOSE

To examine risk factors for prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) in the oldest-old inpatients aged ≥ 90.

METHODS

This retrospective cross-sectional study was performed in acute Geriatrics Department at Kaplan Medical Center. The target population was the oldest-old inpatients aged ≥ 90 hospitalized with acute illness. In total 1536 admissions of 987 patients admitted between January 2007 and December 2010 from the emergency room were included in the study. We retrieved from the electronic hospital records the following data: demographics, admission diagnosis, comorbidities, laboratory tests, drugs, functional and cognitive status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and age-adjusted CCI score.

RESULTS

The risk factors for a prolonged LOS were tube-feeding, consumption of ≥ 5 drugs, non-independent functional status, diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI), pneumonia and malignancy on admission, and comorbidities of congestive heart failure (CHF) and hypoalbuminemia. Multiple linear regression analysis found that UTI, hypoalbuminemia, elevated troponin, pneumonia, number of drugs, malignancy, CHF and number of comorbidities explain a higher risk for a longer LOS.

CONCLUSION

Hospital LOS in the oldest-old patients in acute geriatric ward was associated with admission diagnosis and comorbidities. Awareness of the risk factors for a longer LOS might contribute to reducing hospitalization stay and its related negative consequences. Accurate prediction of prolonged LOS in this age group of patients may be more challenging and require variables that were not included in our study. Future research is warranted.

Prediction model for prolonged length of stay in patients with community-acquired pneumonia based on Japanese administrative data

BACKGROUND

The length of hospital stay in community-acquired pneumonia patients is closely associated with medical costs, the burden of which is increasing in aging societies. Herein, we developed and validated models for predicting prolonged length of stay in community-acquired pneumonia patients to support efficient care in these patients.

METHODS

We obtained data of 32,916 patients hospitalized for pneumonia who were discharged between 2012 and 2013 from 304 acute care hospitals in Japan. Logistic regression models were developed with prolonged length of stay as the outcome and patient characteristics as predictors. The models were internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated using pneumonia patients discharged in 2014.

RESULTS

The median length of stay was 11 (interquartile range, 8-17) days. The following were significant predictors of prolonged length of stay (odds ratio >1.6): age ≥75 years, Barthel index score ≤6, fraction of inspired oxygen ≥35%, Japan Coma Scale score of 100-300, anemia, muscle wasting and atrophy, bedsores, dysphasia, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection. Our validation models had a c-statistic of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.79) and a calibration slope of 0.98.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prediction models may help policymakers in developing strategies for the optimal management of community-acquired pneumonia patients with a focus on patients at a high risk of prolonged length of stay.

Development of competency model for family physicians against the background of 'internet plus healthcare' in China: a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Identification of the service competences of family physicians is central to ensuring high-quality primary care and improving patient outcomes. However, little is known about how to assess the family physicians' service competences in primary care settings. It is necessary to develop and validate a general model of core competences of the family physician under the stage of construction of family doctor system and implementation of 'Internet Plus Healthcare' service model in China.

METHODS

The literature review, behavioural event interviews, expert consultation and questionnaire survey were performed. The scale's 35 questions were measured by response rate, highest score, lowest score, and average score for each. Delphi method was used to assess content validity, Cronbach's α to estimate reliability, and factor analysis to test structural validity. Respondents were randomly divided into two groups; data for one group were used for exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to explore possible model structure. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was then performed.

RESULTS

Effective response rate was 93.56%. Cronbach's α coefficient of the scale was 0.977. Factor analysis showed KMO of 0.988. Bartlett's test showed χ2 of 22 917.515 (df = 630), p < .001. Overall authority grade of expert consultation was 0.80, and Kendall's coefficient of concordance W was 0.194. By EFA, the five-factor model was retained after thorough consideration, and four items with factor loading less than 0.4 were proposed to obtain a five-dimension, 32-item scale. CFA was performed on the new structure, showing high goodness-of-fit test (NFI = 0.98, TLI = 0.91, SRMSR = 0.05, RMSEA = 0.04). Overall Cronbach's α coefficients of the scale and each sub-item were greater than 0.9.

CONCLUSIONS

The scale has good reliability, validity, and credibility and can therefore serve as an effective tool for assessment of Chinese family physicians' service competences.

Mucosal-associated invariant T cells and Vδ2+ γδ T cells in community acquired pneumonia: association of abundance in sputum with clinical severity and outcome

Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells and Vδ2+ γδ T cells are anti-bacterial innate-like lymphocytes (ILLs) that are enriched in blood and mucosa. ILLs have been implicated in control of infection. However, the role of ILLs in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is unknown. Using sputum samples from a well-characterized CAP cohort, MAIT cell and Vδ2+ T cell abundance was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Cytokine and chemokine concentrations in sputum were measured. The capacity of bacteria in sputum to produce activating ligands for MAIT cells and Vδ2+ T cells was inferred by 16S rRNA sequencing. MAIT cell abundance in sputum was higher in patients with less severe pneumonia; duration of hospital admission was inversely correlated with both MAIT and Vδ2+ T cell abundance. The abundance of both ILLs was higher in patients with a confirmed bacterial aetiology; however, there was no correlation with total bacterial load or the predicted capacity of bacteria to produce activating ligands. Sputum MAIT cell abundance was associated with interferon (IFN)-α, IFN-γ, and sputum neutrophil abundance, while Vδ2+ T cell abundance was associated with CXCL11 and IFN-γ. Therefore, MAIT and Vδ2+ T cells can be detected in sputum in CAP, where they may contribute to improved clinical outcome.

Antibiotic use practice and predictors of hospital outcome among patients with systemic bacterial infection: Identifying targets for antibiotic and health care resource stewardship

BACKGROUND

Malpractice and excess use of antimicrobials have been associated with multiple costs, including the development of resistant bacteria, which has become a threat to the human health. The aim of this study, therefore, was to assess the antibiotic use practice and to identify predictors of hospital outcome to uncover targets for stewardship.

METHODS

An Institution-based prospective observational study was performed from 9 April to 7 July 2014 in the internal medicine wards of Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital. Patients with suspected systemic bacterial infections during this period were strictly followed and data were abstracted using data abstraction format. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

About half of the attended patients had suspected systemic bacterial infections, in which pneumonia is the most common. Cephalosporins were the most widely prescribed class of drugs in all the wards. Initial antibiotics were empiric in almost all of the cases. About 28% of the ward and 59% of the ICU patients died during the in-hospital stay. The mean length of stay (LoS) was 18.5+12.2 in the wards and 8.9+4.9 days in the ICU. Whilst digestive disease (AOR = 6.94, 95% CI: 2.24, 21.49), different signs and symptoms of disease (AOR = 2.43, 95% CI: 1.30, 4.56), sepsis (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.12, 5.99) and vancomycin use (AOR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.30, 5.21) were independent positive predictors, antibiotic days (> 10) (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.70) was a negative predictor for mortality. On the other hand, hospital-acquired infection (AOR = 3.01, 95% CI: 1.05, 8.62), beyond the median antibiotic days (> 10) (AOR = 4.05, 95% CI: 1.96, 8.37) and agent days beyond 21 days (AOR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.01-4.68) were independently associated with prolonged LoS.

CONCLUSION

Generally, this observation entails an appropriate infection management and antimicrobial use policy. Any future policy should better start by addressing cases like pneumonia, and sepsis and drugs like cephalosporins.

New associations of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index

BACKGROUND

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a validated, sensitive, and specific prognosis estimation tool based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). The MPI accurately predicts mortality after 1 month and 1 year in older, multimorbid patients with acute disease or relapse of chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether the MPI predicts indicators of healthcare resources, i.e. grade of care (GC), length of hospital stay (LHS) and destination after hospital discharge in older patients in an acute medical setting.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this study 135 hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older underwent a CGA evaluation to calculate the MPI on admission and discharge. Accordingly, patients were subdivided in low (MPI‑1, score 0-0.33), moderate (MPI-2, score 0.34-0.66) and high (MPI-3, score 0.67-1) risk of mortality. The GC, LHS and the discharge allocation were also recorded.

RESULTS

The MPI score was significantly related to LHS (p = 0.011) and to GC (p < 0.001). In addition, MPI-3 patients were significantly more often transferred from other hospital settings (p = 0.007) as well as significantly less likely to be discharged home (p = 0.04) than other groups.

CONCLUSION

The CGA-based MPI values are significantly associated with use of indicators of healthcare resources, including GC, LHS and discharge allocation. These findings suggest that the MPI may be useful for resource planning in the care of older multimorbid patients admitted to hospital.

Pediatric respiratory tract diseases: Chronological trends and perspectives

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological profile of childhood respiratory tract diseases (RTD) in the region of Sfax, Tunisia, and to evaluate their trends over a 13 year period.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of all children hospitalized with RTD aged under 14 years. We collected data from the regional morbidity register of the university hospital of Sfax from 2003 to 2015.

RESULTS

A total of 10 797 RTD patients were enrolled from 49 880 pediatric hospitalizations (21.7%). A male predominance was noted (60%). The median age was 8 months (IQR, 2-36 months). Acute bronchitis (AB) accounted for 53.8%, followed by asthma (15%), pneumonia (14%) and acute upper respiratory infection (AURI; 7.2%). The hospital incidence rate (HIR) of RTD was 34/10 000 inhabitants/year. It was 18.2; 5.07; 4.7 and 2.4/10 000 inhabitants for AB, asthma, pneumonia and AURI, respectively. We noted a significant increase in the HIR of RTD with an annual percentage change (APC) of 10.94% (P < 0.001); in the HIR of AB (APC, 5.27%; P < 0.001); and in asthma HIR (APC, 11.2%; P < 0.001). Otherwise, a significant decrease in AURI HIR was observed (APC, -8.8%; P < 0.001). AB lethality rate increased significantly, with an APC of 7.4% (P < 0.001). Projected trends analysis up to 2024 showed a significant rise in AB and in asthma, while AURI would significantly decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

RTD continues to be a serious health problem over time in terms of morbidity and mortality. Preventive and curative strategies are needed urgently.

Prehospital NSAIDs use prolong hospitalization in patients with pleuro-pulmonary infection

OBJECTIVE

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) pre-hospitalization consumption might affect the course of pneumonia. We opted to assess the potential effects of pre-hospitalization use of NSAIDs in patients with pleuropulmonary infection in the context of the duration of hospitalization.

METHODS

A prospective observational study of 57 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of pneumonia and parapneumonic pleural effusion was conducted. The exact medication history the previous fifteen days was recorded.

RESULTS

Prehospital use of NSAIDs >6 days was positively associated with prolonged hospitalization extending out for approximately 10 days. Immunosuppression was an independent risk factor for prolonged hospitalization of more than 5 days. This group of patients also had more complicated pleural effusions and difficult to treat management. In the immunocompetent group of patients, there was a negative inverse correlation of duration of NSAIDs use with pleural fluid pH and glucose. The longer medication with NSAIDs correlated with lower values of C-reactive protein, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Importantly, the early prehospital antibiotic use significantly prevented the development of empyema.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight the potential complications involved with prehospital use of NSAIDs and especially that prolonged NSAID use which may lead to longer hospitalization duration and more complicated pleural effusions.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality and length of stay in community-acquired pneumonia: a 5-year multi-centre case control study of adults in a developing country

BACKGROUND

We investigated predictors of in-hospital mortality and length of hospital stay among adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Nigeria in order to provide recommendations to improve CAP outcomes in developing countries.

METHODS

This was a multi-centre case control study of patients ≥18 years who were admitted with CAP between 2008 and 2012. Case notes of 100 consecutive patients who died (cases) and random sample of 300 patients discharged (controls) were selected.

RESULTS

Mean ages were 55.4±19.6 (cases) and 49.3±19.2 (controls). Independent predictors of mortality were CURB-65 score ≥3: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 24.3, late presentation: aOR 8.6, co-morbidity: aOR 3.9, delayed first dose antibiotics (>4 hours): aOR 3.5, need for supplemental oxygen: aOR 4.9, multilobar pneumonia: aOR 4.0, non-pneumococcal aetiology: aOR 6.5, anaemia: aOR 3.8 and hyperglycemia: aOR 8.6. CURB-65 ≥3 predicted mortality with a high specificity (96.1%) but low sensitivity (75%); positive predictive value of 88.2% and negative predictive value of 90.8%. Care in hospital A and B: aOR 3.3 and 2.2 respectively, male gender aOR 2.1, co-morbidity aOR 3.0, anaemia aOR 2.1 and elevated serum creatinine aOR 6.3 independently predicted length of hospital stay >10 days among survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Several modifiable patient-related and process-of-care factors predicted in-hospital mortality, and length of hospital stay among survivors. Our findings should be used to improve CAP outcomes in developing countries.

Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia

Background:

Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Methods:

Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years.

Results:

Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1–3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2–6.0]; p<0.001). Results for 6-year outcomes (n=349) were similar with ORs of 3.3 ([95% CI 1.3–8.3]; p=0.012) and 6.2 ([95% CI 2.7–14.2]; p<0.001). The markers were associated with most of the different QoL dimensions including mobility, self-care, and usual activities, but not pain/discomfort and to a lesser degree anxiety/depression and the visual analogue scale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point.

Conclusions:

ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study

INTRODUCTION

Early risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) is vital to reduce time to effective treatment in high-risk patients and to improve patient flow. Yet, there is a lack of investigations evaluating the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers measured upon admission from distinct biological pathways for predicting fatal outcome and high initial treatment urgency in unselected ED patients in a multicenter and multinational setting.

METHOD

We included consecutive, adult, medical patients seeking ED care into this observational, cohort study in Switzerland, France and the USA. We recorded initial clinical parameters and batch-measured prognostic biomarkers of inflammation (pro-adrenomedullin [ProADM]), stress (copeptin) and infection (procalcitonin).

RESULTS

During a 30-day follow-up, 331 of 7132 (4.6 %) participants reached the primary endpoint of death within 30 days. In logistic regression models adjusted for conventional risk factors available at ED admission, all three biomarkers strongly predicted the risk of death (AUC 0.83, 0.78 and 0.75), ICU admission (AUC 0.67, 0.69 and 0.62) and high initial triage priority (0.67, 0.66 and 0.58). For the prediction of death, ProADM significantly improved regression models including (a) clinical information available at ED admission (AUC increase from 0.79 to 0.84), (b) full clinical information at ED discharge (AUC increase from 0.85 to 0.88), and (c) triage information (AUC increase from 0.67 to 0.83) (p <0.01 for each comparison). Similarly, ProADM also improved clinical models for prediction of ICU admission and high initial treatment urgency. Results were robust in regard to predefined patient subgroups by center, main diagnosis, presenting symptoms, age and gender.

CONCLUSIONS

Combination of clinical information with results of blood biomarkers measured upon ED admission allows early and more adequate risk stratification in individual unselected medical ED patients. A randomized trial is needed to answer the question whether biomarker-guided initial patient triage reduces time to initial treatment of high-risk patients in the ED and thereby improves patient flow and clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01768494 . Registered January 9, 2013.

Systematic review regarding metabolic profiling for improved pathophysiological understanding of disease and outcome prediction in respiratory infections

Metabolic profiling through targeted quantification of a predefined subset of metabolites, performed by mass spectrometric analytical techniques, allows detailed investigation of biological pathways and thus may provide information about the interaction of different organic systems, ultimately improving understanding of disease risk and prognosis in a variety of diseases. Early risk assessment, in turn, may improve patient management in regard to cite-of-care decisions and treatment modalities. Within this review, we focus on the potential of metabolic profiling to improve our pathophysiological understanding of disease and management of patients. We focus thereby on lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) including community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), an important disease responsible for high mortality, morbidity and costs worldwide. Observational data from numerous clinical and experimental studies have provided convincing data linking metabolic blood biomarkers such as lactate, glucose or cortisol to patient outcomes. Also, identified through metabolomic studies, novel innovative metabolic markers such as steroid hormones, biogenic amines, members of the oxidative status, sphingo- and glycerophospholipids, and trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) have shown promising results. Since many uncertainties remain in predicting mortality in these patients, further prospective and retrospective observational studies are needed to uncover metabolic pathways responsible for mortality associated with LRTI. Improved understanding of outcome-specific metabolite signatures in LRTIs may optimize patient management strategies, provide potential new targets for future individual therapy, and thereby improve patients' chances for survival.

Which individuals are at increased risk of pneumococcal disease and why? Impact of COPD, asthma, smoking, diabetes, and/or chronic heart disease on community-acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease

Pneumococcal disease (including community-acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease) poses a burden to the community all year round, especially in those with chronic underlying conditions. Individuals with COPD, asthma or who smoke, and those with chronic heart disease or diabetes mellitus have been shown to be at increased risk of pneumococcal disease compared with those without these risk factors. These conditions, and smoking, can also adversely affect patient outcomes, including short-term and long-term mortality rates, following pneumonia. Community-acquired pneumonia, and in particular pneumococcal pneumonia, is associated with a significant economic burden, especially in those who are hospitalised, and also has an impact on a patient's quality of life. Therefore, physicians should target individuals with COPD, asthma, heart disease or diabetes mellitus, and those who smoke, for pneumococcal vaccination at the earliest opportunity at any time of the year.

The Impact of Patient Profiles and Procedures on Hospitalization Costs through Length of Stay in Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients Based on a Japanese Administrative Database

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia is a common cause of patient hospitalization, and its burden on health care systems is increasing in aging societies. In this study, we aimed to investigate the factors that affect hospitalization costs in community-acquired pneumonia patients while considering the intermediate influence of patient length of stay.

Methods

Using a multi-institutional administrative claims database, we analyzed 30,041 patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia who had been discharged between April 1, 2012 and September 30, 2013 from 289 acute care hospitals in Japan. Possible factors associated with hospitalization costs were investigated using structural equation modeling with length of stay as an intermediate variable. We calculated the direct, indirect (through length of stay), and total effects of the candidate factors on hospitalization costs in the model. Lastly, we calculated the ratio of indirect effects to direct effects for each factor.

Results

The structural equation model showed that higher disease severities (using A-DROP, Barthel Index, and Charlson Comorbidity Index scores), use of mechanical ventilation, and tube feeding were associated with higher hospitalization costs, regardless of the intermediate influence of length of stay. The severity factors were also associated with longer length of stay durations. The ratio of indirect effects to direct effects on total hospitalization costs showed that the former was greater than the latter in the factors, except in the use of mechanical ventilation.

Conclusions

Our structural equation modeling analysis indicated that patient profiles and procedures impacted on hospitalization costs both directly and indirectly. Furthermore, the profiles were generally shown to have greater indirect effects (through length of stay) on hospitalization costs than direct effects. These findings may be useful in supporting the more appropriate distribution of health care resources.

Predicting number of hospitalization days based on health insurance claims data using bagged regression trees

Healthcare administrators worldwide are striving to both lower the cost of care whilst improving the quality of care given. Therefore, better clinical and administrative decision making is needed to improve these issues. Anticipating outcomes such as number of hospitalization days could contribute to addressing this problem. In this paper, a method was developed, using large-scale health insurance claims data, to predict the number of hospitalization days in a population. We utilized a regression decision tree algorithm, along with insurance claim data from 300,000 individuals over three years, to provide predictions of number of days in hospital in the third year, based on medical admissions and claims data from the first two years. Our method performs well in the general population. For the population aged 65 years and over, the predictive model significantly improves predictions over a baseline method (predicting a constant number of days for each patient), and achieved a specificity of 70.20% and sensitivity of 75.69% in classifying these subjects into two categories of 'no hospitalization' and 'at least one day in hospital'.

Trends in hospital admissions at a Department for Infectious Diseases in Italy from 1995 to 2011 and implications for health policies

BACKGROUND

Interactions among several environmental, behavioral, social, and biological variables contribute to the epidemiology of infectious diseases (IDs) and have an impact on the healthcare system and hospitalizations. We evaluated trends in ID hospitalizations at our Department for Infectious Diseases in the last two decades to aid decision-makers in defining appropriate healthcare strategies.

METHODS

The discharge diagnoses of all patients admitted to the ID Department of L Sacco University Hospital between 1995 and 2011 were classified by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) grouped in Major Diagnostic Categories (MDC). Linear regression was used to determine the trends in hospitalizations for each MDC. Estimates of the average annual change were based on the slope of the regression line.

RESULTS

A sharp decline in HIV/AIDS cases (-22.5 +/-6.0 cases per calendar year), and an increase in admissions for respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and musculoskeletal infections were recorded. The mean age of the patients increased by 1.2 years (+/-0.049) for each calendar year of observation (linear trend, p < 0.0001), increasing from 37.02 +/-11.91 years in 1995 to 56.02 +/-19.62 years in 2011 (p < 0.0001). The mean number of comorbidities per patient increased significantly over time (Mann-Whitney U test, p = 0.0153). From 1998/1999 to 2010/2011 the hospital length of stay (LOS) increased for cardiovascular, digestive system, musculoskeletal, and skin/subcutaneous infections, and infectious and parasitic diseases (p < 0.01). The rate of hospital stay over threshold (HSOT) increased in the last 5 years by 1.12% for every 10-year age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, a higher number of comorbidities, a longer hospital LOS for certain conditions, and a higher rate of HSOT characterize the patients admitted to this ID department in recent years. Despite progress in treatment and management, infectious diseases continue to be a major threat to human health. The current challenge for ID departments is the treatment of complex cases, often associated with chronic diseases in elderly patients. Continuous monitoring at a local and national level will allow early identification of changes in the epidemiological patterns of IDs and provide information for healthcare system planning.

Clinical value of chest computerized tomography scans in patients admitted with pneumonia

Patients admitted with pneumonia often receive a chest computed tomography (CT) scan for a variety of reasons. We conducted this study to evaluate our overall utilization and the clinical impact of CT scans in patients admitted to our institution with pneumonia. Patients admitted to our facility from January 2008 through November 2011 with a confirmed diagnosis of pneumonia were eligible for evaluation. Information related to patient demographics, performance of a CT scan, pneumonia-related procedures, severity of illness, and outcomes was collected. One hundred ninety-five patients met inclusion criteria. Sixty-nine patients had CT scans performed. CT scans were performed more often in younger patients (58.1 ± 19.0 vs 66.8 ± 18.6, P = 0.002), individuals with lower CURB 65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age > 65) scores (1.7 ± 1.4 vs 2.2 ± 1.4, P = 0.037), and those with no infiltrates or consolidation on plain radiographs (26.9% vs 7.1%, P < 0.0001). Patients who had a procedure performed had longer average length of stays (15.3 ± 11.9 vs 6.8 ± 4.1 days, P = 0.016). Pneumonia-related procedures were more likely performed in patients who had a CT scan. Specific guidelines and objective rules need to be developed to prospectively guide the use of advanced imaging techniques in pneumonia patients.

Corticosteroid treatment for community-acquired pneumonia--the STEP trial: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the third-leading infectious cause of death worldwide. The standard treatment of CAP has not changed for the past fifty years and its mortality and morbidity remain high despite adequate antimicrobial treatment. Systemic corticosteroids have anti-inflammatory effects and are therefore discussed as adjunct treatment for CAP. Available studies show controversial results, and the question about benefits and harms of adjunct corticosteroid therapy has not been conclusively resolved, particularly in the non-critical care setting.

METHODS/DESIGN

This randomized multicenter study compares a treatment with 7 days of prednisone 50 mg with placebo in adult patients hospitalized with CAP independent of severity. Patients are screened and enrolled within the first 36 hours of presentation after written informed consent is obtained. The primary endpoint will be time to clinical stability, which is assessed every 12 hours during hospitalization. Secondary endpoints will be, among others, all-cause mortality within 30 and 180 days, ICU stay, duration of antibiotic treatment, disease activity scores, side effects and complications, value of adrenal function testing and prognostic hormonal and inflammatory biomarkers to predict outcome and treatment response to corticosteroids. Eight hundred included patients will provide an 85% power for the intention-to-treat analysis of the primary endpoint.

DISCUSSION

This largest to date double-blind placebo-controlled multicenter trial investigates the effect of adjunct glucocorticoids in 800 patients with CAP requiring hospitalization. It aims to give conclusive answers about benefits and risks of corticosteroid treatment in CAP. The inclusion of less severe CAP patients will be expected to lead to a relatively low mortality rate and survival benefit might not be shown. However, our study has adequate power for the clinically relevant endpoint of clinical stability. Due to discontinuing glucocorticoids without tapering after seven days, we limit duration of glucocorticoid exposition, which may reduce possible side effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

7 September 2009 on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00973154.

Admission factors associated with prolonged (>14 days) intensive care unit stay

PURPOSE

To describe the admission factors associated with prolonged (>14 days) intensive care unit (ICU) stay (PIS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 3257 admissions during a 1.5-year period in a tertiary hospital. We tested the association between clinically relevant variables and PIS (>14 days) through binary logistic regression using the backward method. A Kaplan-Meier curve and the log-rank test were used to compare hospital outcomes for ICU survivors between patients with and without PIS.

RESULTS

In total, 6.6% of all admissions had a prolonged stay, consuming over 40% of all ICU bed-days. Illness severity; respiratory support at admission; performance status; readmission; admission from a ward, emergency room or other hospital; admission due to intracranial mass effect; severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and the temperature at admission were all associated with PIS in a multivariate analysis. The created model had a good area under the curve (0.82) and was calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.431). Post hoc analysis on ICU survivors on in patients with at least two days of ICU stay yielded similar results. Hospital survival after ICU discharge was similar for patients with and without PIS (log-rank test p = 0.50).

CONCLUSION

A small number of ICU admissions consume a great proportion of ICU bed-days. Illness severity, a need for support and performance status are important predictors of PIS. Patients who survive a PIS have similar hospital mortality to patients with a shorter stay.