The impact of individualised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimates and lifestyle advice on physical activity in individuals at high risk of CVD: a pilot 2 x 2 factorial understanding risk trial

Gender Differences in Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis in the Asian Population With a Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero

There is little evidence on whether gender difference influences the incidence of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis in Asian populations with a 0 score. In this study, we investigated the influence of age and gender on the extent of subclinical coronary atherosclerotic burden within a healthy Asian population with a 0 coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. A total of 934 participants (320 women and 614 men) from Taiwan's Han Chinese population with an initial CAC score of 0 were included in this study. They underwent 2 consecutive cardiac computed tomography scans over a clinical follow-up period of 4.35 ± 2.37 years. Clinical information and laboratory measurements were collected for analysis. Compared with the female group, the male group demonstrated significantly higher rates of subclinical CAC progression (27.4% vs 13.8%, p <0.001). Across the age group deciles (≤40, 41 to 50, 51 to 60, ≥61 years), the male group had a higher prevalence of subclinical CAC progression than the female group. For the subclinical CAC progression, the logistic regression model demonstrated that age, gender (male gender), cholesterol level, and follow-up period were statistically significant parameters. In conclusion, these findings support that a gender difference impacts the long-term natural course of subclinical coronary calcification conversion in women compared with men, suggesting that the gender-based effect on coronary CAC conversion plays an important role in subclinical coronary atherosclerosis risk stratification in personalized preventive medicine.

Association between physical exercise and all-cause and CVD mortality in patients with diabetes: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives

Physical activity is recommended in guidelines for treatment for diabetes, but the association between physical activity and mortality among diabetic patients has not been extensively studied.

Methods

Databases were searched from inception to July 10, 2020. Prospective studies were selected to evaluate the association between physical activity and risk for total and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality among diabetic patients. Data were pooled using random-effect model to calculate the relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

We included 16 eligible studies involving with 155,203 diabetic participants and 13,821 cases of death. Our study suggested that physical activity in diabetic patients may decrease risk for all-cause (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.49-0.67) and CVD mortality (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.34-0.68). The summary RR for CVD events was 0.65 (95% CI 0.41-1.03). Furthermore, the reductions in all-cause mortality were more significant in diabetic patients with old age (> 60 years) (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29 -0.75), higher body mass index (BMI ≥ 28) (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.42-0.69) and shorter duration of diabetes (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84).

Conclusion

Physical activity reduced the risk of total and CVD mortality among patients with diabetes, in particular in diabetic patients with old age (> 60 years), obesity and shorter duration of diabetes.

Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity (I² > 50%). We evaluated the quality of evidence using the GRADE framework.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 41 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving 194,035 participants from 6422 reports. We assessed studies as having high or unclear risk of bias across multiple domains. Low-quality evidence evidence suggests that providing CVD risk scores may have little or no effect on CVD events compared with usual care (5.4% versus 5.3%; RR 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95 to 1.08; I² = 25%; 3 trials, N = 99,070). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce CVD risk factor levels by a small amount compared with usual care. Providing CVD risk scores reduced total cholesterol (MD -0.10 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.20 to 0.00; I² = 94%; 12 trials, N = 20,437, low-quality evidence), systolic blood pressure (MD -2.77 mmHg, 95% CI -4.16 to -1.38; I² = 93%; 16 trials, N = 32,954, low-quality evidence), and multivariable CVD risk (SMD -0.21, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.02; I² = 94%; 9 trials, N = 9549, low-quality evidence). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce adverse events compared with usual care, but results were imprecise (1.9% versus 2.7%; RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.04; I² = 0%; 4 trials, N = 4630, low-quality evidence). Compared with usual care, providing CVD risk scores may increase new or intensified lipid-lowering medications (15.7% versus 10.7%; RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.87; I² = 40%; 11 trials, N = 14,175, low-quality evidence) and increase new or increased antihypertensive medications (17.2% versus 11.4%; RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.11; I² = 53%; 8 trials, N = 13,255, low-quality evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is uncertainty whether current strategies for providing CVD risk scores affect CVD events. Providing CVD risk scores may slightly reduce CVD risk factor levels and may increase preventive medication prescribing in higher-risk people without evidence of harm. There were multiple study limitations in the identified studies and substantial heterogeneity in the interventions, outcomes, and analyses, so readers should interpret results with caution. New models for implementing and evaluating CVD risk scores in adequately powered studies are needed to define the role of applying CVD risk scores in primary CVD prevention.

Worksite Prevalence of (un)Diagnosed Cardiovascular Risk Factors From a Health-Check-Program in An Austrian Company

OBJECTIVE

This investigation aims to determine cardiovascular disease risk profile in a cohort of employees.

METHODS

In 704 participants, within the Special Institute for Preventive Cardiology And Nutrition health-check-program, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure (BP), lipids, glucose, and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk were assessed.

RESULTS

Mean age was 37 (10) years (20% women) with 25.5 (3.9)  kg/m. A total of 38% demonstrated overweight, 44% abdominal obesity, 12% obesity, and 19% metabolic syndrome. We found a significant difference in increased BP versus diagnosed hypertension (47% vs. 14%; P < 0.001). Increasing age was a significant predictor of metabolic syndrome (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.08 [1.06 to 1.10]; P < 0.001). Ten percent had intermediate and 8% high cardiovascular disease risk. A total of 79% demonstrated at least one risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected high prevalence of risk factors particularly increased BP and abdominal obesity. Workplace prevention programs should aim in initially identifying risk factors and subsequently improving lifestyle.

Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours.

METHODS/DESIGN

In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups.

DISCUSSION

The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

Exercise for people with high cardiovascular risk

BACKGROUND

When two or more cardiovascular risk factors occur in one individual, they may interact in a multiplicative way promoting cardiovascular disease. Exercise has proven to be effective in controlling individual risk factors but its effect on overall cardiovascular risk remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of exercise training in people with increased cardiovascular risk but without a concurrent cardiovascular disease on general cardiovascular mortality, incidence of cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular risk.

SEARCH METHODS

A search was conducted in CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 10 of 12), Ovid MEDLINE (1946 to week 2 November 2013), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE via Ovid (1947 to Week 47 2013), CINAHL Plus with Full Text via EBSCO (to November 2013), Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) (1970 to 22 November 2013), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 22 November 2013) on Web of Science (Thomson Reuters). We did not apply any date or language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized clinical trials comparing aerobic or resistance exercise training versus no exercise or any standard approach that does not include exercise. Participants had to be 18 years of age or older with an average 10-year Framingham risk score of 10% for cardiovascular disease over 10 years, or with two or more cardiovascular risk factors, and no history of cardiovascular disease.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The selection of studies and subsequent data collection process were conducted by two independent authors. Disagreements were solved by consensus. The results were reported descriptively. It was not possible to conduct a meta-analysis because of the high heterogeneity and high risk of bias in the included studies.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of four studies were included that involved 823 participants, 412 in the exercise group and 411 in the control group. Follow-up of participants ranged from 16 weeks to 6 months. Overall, the included studies had a high risk of selection, detection, and attrition bias. Meta-analysis was not possible because the interventions (setting, type and intensity of exercise) and outcome measurements were not comparable, and the risk of bias in the identified studies was high. No study assessed cardiovascular or all‑cause mortality or cardiovascular events as individual outcomes. One or more of the studies reported on total cardiovascular risk, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, exercise capacity, and health-related quality of life but the available evidence was not sufficient to determine the effectiveness of exercise. Adverse events and smoking cessation were not assessed in the included studies.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Evidence to date is entirely limited to small studies with regard to sample size, short-term follow-up, and high risk of methodological bias, which makes it difficult to derive any conclusions on the efficacy or safety of aerobic or resistance exercise on groups with increased cardiovascular risk or in individuals with two or more coexisting risk factors. Further randomized clinical trials assessing controlled exercise programmes on total cardiovascular risk in individuals are warranted.

Identification of noncalcified plaque in young persons with diabetes: an opportunity for early primary prevention of coronary artery disease identified with low-dose coronary computed tomographic angiography

PURPOSE

Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) is a valuable tool for assessing coronary artery disease (CAD). Although statin use is widely recommended for persons with diabetes older than age 40, little is known about the presence and severity of CAD in younger patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). We evaluated coronary artery calcium (CAC) and coronary CTA in young persons with both DM1 and DM2 in an attempt to detect the earliest objective evidence of arteriosclerosis eligible for primary prevention.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We prospectively enrolled 40 persons with DM (25 type 1 and 15 type 2) between the ages of 19 and 35 presenting with diabetes for 5 years or longer. All patients underwent coronary CTA and CAC scans to evaluate for early atherosclerotic disease. Each plaque in the coronary artery was classified as noncalcified or calcified-mixed. We also evaluated all segments with stenosis, dividing them into mild (<50%), moderate (50-70%), and severe (>70%).

RESULTS

The average age of the DM1 subjects were 26 ± 4 (SD) years and 30 ± 4 years for DM2 patients (P < .01), with duration of diabetes of 8 ± 5 years and average HbA1c% of 8.7 ± 1.6 (norm = 4.6-6.2). Abnormal scans were present in 57.5%, noncalcified in 35% and calcified-mixed plaque in 22.5%. Persons with DM2 had a higher prevalence of positive coronary CTA scans than DM1: 80% versus 44% (P < .03) and more positive CAC scores 53% versus 4%, (P < .01). The total segment score of 2.1 ± 3.4 (P < .01) and total plaque score 1.9 ± 2.8 (P < .01) were highly correlated to each other. Plaque was almost uniformly absent below age 25, and became increasingly common in individuals over the age of 25 years for both groups. The average radiation exposure was 2.5 ± 1.3 mSv.

CONCLUSION

Our study verifies that early CAD can be diagnosed with coronary CTA and minimal radiation exposure in young adults with DM. A negative CAC score was not sufficient to exclude early CAD as we observed a preponderance of noncalcified plaque in this cohort. Coronary CTA in young DM patients older than age 25 may provide earlier identification of disease than does a CAC because only noncalcified plaque is frequently present. Coronary CTA provides an opportunity to consider initiation of earlier primary CAD prevention rather than waiting for the age of 40 as currently recommended by the American Diabetes Association guidelines.

A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)

AIM

We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an observational study of type 2 diabetes patients from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

METHODS

A derivation sample of 24,288 patients, aged 30-74 years, 15.3% with previous CVD, baseline 2002, 2488 CVD events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4906 patients, baseline 2003, 522 CVD events when followed for 4 years.

RESULTS

Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/nonfatal CVD were: onset-age 1.59, diabetes duration 1.55, total-cholesterol-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio 1.20, HbA1c 1.12, systolic BP 1.09, BMI 1.07 (1 SD increase in natural log continuous variables); males 1.41, smoker 1.35, microalbuminuria 1.27, macroalbuminuria 1.53, atrial fibrillation 1.50, previous CVD 1.98 (all p<0.001 except BMI p=0.0018). All 12 variables were used to elaborate an equation for 5-year CVD risk in the derivation dataset: mean 5-year risk 11.9±8.4%. Calibration in the validation dataset was adequate: ratio predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.97. Discrimination was sufficient: C statistic 0.72, sensitivity 51% and specificity 78% for top quartile.

CONCLUSION

This CVD risk model from a large observational study of patients in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination, and can be useful for clinical practice.

Characteristics of coronary artery disease in symptomatic type 2 diabetic patients: evaluation with CT angiography

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a common and severe complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). The aim of this study is to identify the features of CAD in diabetic patients using coronary CT angiography (CTA).

METHODS

From 1 July 2009 to 20 March 2010, 113 consecutive patients (70 men, 43 women; mean age, 68 ± 10 years) with type 2 DM were found to have coronary plaques on coronary CTA. Their CTA data were reviewed, and extent, distribution and types of plaques and luminal narrowing were evaluated and compared between different sexes.

RESULTS

In total, 287 coronary vessels (2.5 ± 1.1 per patient) and 470 segments (4.2 ± 2.8 per patient) were found to have plaques, respectively. Multi-vessel disease was more common than single vessel disease (p < 0.001), and the left anterior descending (LAD) artery (35.8%) and its proximal segment (19.1%) were most frequently involved (all p < 0.001). Calcified plaques (48.8%) were the most common type (p < 0.001) followed by mixed plaques (38.1%). Regarding the different degrees of stenosis, mild narrowing (36.9%) was most common (p < 0.001); however, a significant difference was not observed between non-obstructive and obstructive stenosis (50.4% vs. 49.6%, p = 0.855). Extent of CAD, types of plaques and luminal narrowing were not significantly different between male and female diabetic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronary CTA depicted a high plaque burden in patients with type 2 DM. Plaques, which were mainly calcified, were more frequently detected in the proximal segment of the LAD artery, and increased attention should be paid to the significant prevalence of obstructive stenosis. In addition, DM reduced the sex differential in CT findings of CAD.

Wearable systems for monitoring mobility-related activities in chronic disease: a systematic review

The use of wearable motion sensing technology offers important advantages over conventional methods for obtaining measures of physical activity and/or physical functioning in individuals with chronic diseases. This review aims to identify the actual state of applying wearable systems for monitoring mobility-related activity in individuals with chronic disease conditions. In this review we focus on technologies and applications, feasibility and adherence aspects, and clinical relevance of wearable motion sensing technology. PubMed (Medline since 1990), PEdro, and reference lists of all relevant articles were searched. Two authors independently reviewed randomised trials systematically. The quality of selected articles was scored and study results were summarised and discussed. 163 abstracts were considered. After application of inclusion criteria and full text reading, 25 articles were taken into account in a full text review. Twelve of these papers evaluated walking with pedometers, seven used uniaxial accelerometers to assess physical activity, six used multiaxial accelerometers, and two papers used a combination approach of a pedometer and a multiaxial accelerometer for obtaining overall activity and energy expenditure measures. Seven studies mentioned feasibility and/or adherence aspects. The number of studies that use movement sensors for monitoring of activity patterns in chronic disease (postural transitions, time spent in certain positions or activities) is nonexistent on the RCT level of study design. Although feasible methods for monitoring human mobility are available, evidence-based clinical applications of these methods in individuals with chronic diseases are in need of further development.

Diabetes treatment patterns and goal achievement in primary diabetes care (DiaRegis) - study protocol and patient characteristics at baseline

BACKGROUND

Patients with type 2 diabetes are at an increased risk for disease and treatment related complications after the initial approach of oral mono/dual antidiabetic therapy has failed. Data from clinical practice with respect to this patient group are however scarce. Therefore we set up a registry in primary care documenting the course and outcomes of this patient group.

METHODS

Diabetes Treatment Patterns and Goal Achievement in Primary Diabetes Care (DiaRegis) is a prospective, observational, German, multicenter registry including patients with type-2 diabetes in which oral mono/dual antidiabetic therapy has failed. Data were recorded at baseline and will be prospectively documented during visits at 6 ± 1, 12 ± 2 and 24 ± 2 months. The primary objective is to estimate the proportion of patients with at least 1 episode of severe hypoglycemia within one year.

RESULTS

313 primary care offices included 4,048 patients between June 2009 and March 2010 of which 3,810 patients fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. 46.7% of patients were female; patients had a median diabetes duration of 5.5 years and most were obese with respect to BMI or waist circumference. HbA1c at baseline was 7.4%, fasting plasma glucose 142 mg/dl and postprandial glucose 185 mg/dl. Co-morbidity in this patient population was substantial with 17.9% having coronary artery disease, 14.4% peripheral neuropathy, 9.9% heart failure and 6.0% peripheral arterial disease. 68.6% of patients received oral monotherapy, 31.4% dual oral combination therapy. The most frequent antidiabetic agent used as monotherapy was metformin (79.0%) followed by sulfonylureas (14.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

DiaRegis is a large, prospective registry in primary diabetes care to document the course and outcomes of patients with type-2 diabetes in which the initial approach of oral mono/dual antidiabetic therapy has failed. The two year follow-up will allow for a prospective evaluation of these patients during multiple adjustments of therapy.

The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial

Background

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory.

Methods

A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group.

Discussion

This innovative risk communication method based on two behavioural theories might improve patient's appropriateness of risk perception and attitude concerning lifestyle change. With a better understanding of their CVD risk, patients will be able to make informed choices concerning diabetes care.

Trail registration

The trial is registered as NTR1556 in the Dutch Trial Register.

Perceptions of heart attack risk amongst individuals with diabetes

AIM

Individuals with diabetes are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is good evidence that this risk can be reduced by pharmacotherapies and lifestyle modification. Despite this, knowledge of CVD risk amongst individuals with diabetes remains poor. We undertook a qualitative study to investigate lay perceptions of heart attack risk amongst individuals with diabetes in order to gather information about underlying perceptions concerning risk and risk reduction strategies.

METHODS

We conducted three focus groups in Oxford using an open-ended question map. Content analysis was performed to identify recurring themes, similar patterns, distinctions and supportive quotations.

RESULTS

Concern about having a heart attack varied widely. A commonly held view was that a 10-year heart attack risk of 10% or greater was high and being aware of one's risk was important so that lifestyle changes or other interventions could be implemented. Participants consistently viewed physical activity as potentially harmful. Almost all participants sought healthcare and lifestyle advice from their primary healthcare providers in the first instance, preferring this to information in the lay press or government campaigns.

CONCLUSION

The focus groups have allowed us to better understand lay perceptions of, and underlying assumptions about, CVD risk. These findings may be of use when discussing CVD risk and risk reduction strategies in primary care.

Use of focus groups to develop methods to communicate cardiovascular disease risk and potential for risk reduction to people with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

People need to perceive a risk in order to build an intention-to-change behaviour yet our ability to interpret information about risk is highly variable.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to use a user-centred design process to develop an animated interface for the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine to illustrate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the potential to reduce this risk. In addition, we sought to use the same approach to develop a brief lifestyle advice intervention.

METHODS

Three focus groups were held. Participants were provided with examples of materials used to communicate CVD risk and a leaflet containing a draft brief lifestyle advice intervention and considered their potential to increase motivation-to-change behaviours including diet, physical activity, and smoking in order to reduce CVD risk. Discussions were tape-recorded, transcribed and coded and recurring themes sought.

RESULTS

Sixty-two percent of participants were male, mean age was 66 years (range = 47-76 years) and median age at leaving full-time education was 18 years (range = 15-40 years). Sixteen had type 2 diabetes and none had a prior history of CVD. Recurring themes from focus group discussions included the following: being less numerate is common, CVD risk reduction is important and a clear visual representation aids comprehension.

CONCLUSION

A simple animated interface of the UKPDS Risk Engine to illustrate CVD risk and the potential for reducing this risk has been developed for use as a motivational tool, along with a brief lifestyle advice intervention. Future work will investigate whether use of this interactive version of the UKPDS Risk Engine and brief lifestyle advice is associated with increased behavioural intentions and changes in health behaviours designed to reduce CVD risk.

Cardiovascular risk assessment scores for people with diabetes: a systematic review

People with type 2 diabetes have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Multivariate cardiovascular risk scores have been used in many countries to identify individuals who are at high risk of CVD. These risk scores include those originally developed in individuals with diabetes and those developed in a general population. This article reviews the published evidence for the performance of CVD risk scores in diabetic patients by: (1) examining the overall rationale for using risk scores; (2) systematically reviewing the literature on available scores; and (3) exploring methodological issues surrounding the development, validation and comparison of risk scores. The predictive performance of cardiovascular risk scores varies substantially between different populations. There is little evidence to suggest that risk scores developed in individuals with diabetes estimate cardiovascular risk more accurately than those developed in the general population. The inconsistency in the methods used in evaluation studies makes it difficult to compare and summarise the predictive ability of risk scores. Overall, CVD risk scores rank individuals reasonably accurately and are therefore useful in the management of diabetes with regard to targeting therapy to patients at highest risk. However, due to the uncertainty in estimation of true risk, care is needed when using scores to communicate absolute CVD risk to individuals.

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine and the Framingham Risk Equations in Estimating Cardiovascular Disease in the EPIC- Norfolk Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 3) and the Framingham risk equations (2008) in estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in three populations: 1) individuals with known diabetes; 2) individuals with nondiabetic hyperglycemia, defined as A1C >or=6.0%; and 3) individuals with normoglycemia defined as A1C <6.0%.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40-79 years recruited from U.K. general practices attended a health examination (1993-1998) and were followed for CVD events/death until April 2007. CVD risk estimates were calculated for 10,137 individuals.

RESULTS

Over 10.1 years, there were 69 CVD events in the diabetes group (25.4%), 160 in the hyperglycemia group (17.7%), and 732 in the normoglycemia group (8.2%). Estimated CVD 10-year risk in the diabetes group was 33 and 37% using the UKPDS and Framingham equations, respectively. In the hyperglycemia group, estimated CVD risks were 31 and 22%, respectively, and for the normoglycemia group risks were 20 and 14%, respectively. There were no significant differences in the ability of the risk equations to discriminate between individuals at different risk of CVD events in each subgroup; both equations overestimated CVD risk. The Framingham equations performed better in the hyperglycemia and normoglycemia groups as they did not overestimate risk as much as the UKPDS Risk Engine, and they classified more participants correctly.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the UKPDS Risk Engine and Framingham risk equations were moderately effective at ranking individuals and are therefore suitable for resource prioritization. However, both overestimated true risk, which is important when one is using scores to communicate prognostic information to individuals.