Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets

Differential Influence of Environmental Factors on Malaria Due to Vector Control Interventions in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Few studies have explored how vector control interventions may modify associations between environmental factors and malaria.

METHODS

We used weekly malaria cases reported from six public health facilities in Uganda. Environmental variables (temperature, rainfall, humidity, and vegetation) were extracted from remote sensing sources. The non-linearity of environmental variables was investigated, and negative binomial regression models were used to explore the influence of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) on associations between environmental factors and malaria incident cases for each site as well as pooled across the facilities, with or without considering the interaction between environmental variables and vector control interventions.

RESULTS

An average of 73.3 weekly malaria cases per site (range: 0-597) occurred between 2010 and 2018. From the pooled model, malaria risk related to environmental variables was reduced by about 35% with LLINs and 63% with IRS. Significant interactions were observed between some environmental variables and vector control interventions. There was site-specific variability in the shape of the environment-malaria risk relationship and in the influence of interventions (6 to 72% reduction in cases with LLINs and 43 to 74% with IRS).

CONCLUSION

The influence of vector control interventions on the malaria-environment relationship need to be considered at a local scale in order to efficiently guide control programs.

The influence of the environment and indoor residual spraying on malaria risk in a cohort of children in Uganda

Studies have estimated the impact of the environment on malaria incidence although few have explored the differential impact due to malaria control interventions. Therefore, the objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the relationship between malaria and environment (i.e. rainfall, temperatures, humidity, and vegetation) using data from a dynamic cohort of children from three sub-counties in Uganda. Environmental variables were extracted from remote sensing sources and averaged over different time periods. General linear mixed models were constructed for each sub-counties based on a log-binomial distribution. The influence of IRS was analysed by comparing marginal effects of environment in models adjusted and unadjusted for IRS. Great regional variability in the shape (linear and non-linear), direction, and magnitude of environmental associations with malaria risk were observed between sub-counties. IRS was significantly associated with malaria risk reduction (risk ratios vary from RR = 0.03, CI 95% [0.03-0.08] to RR = 0.35, CI95% [0.28-0.42]). Model adjustment for this intervention changed the magnitude and/or direction of environment-malaria associations, suggesting an interaction effect. This study evaluated the potential influence of IRS in the malaria-environment association and highlighted the necessity to control for interventions when they are performed to properly estimate the environmental influence on malaria. Local models are more informative to guide intervention program compared to national models.

The relative impact of interventions on sympatric Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

In areas with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, interventions can reduce the burden of both species but the impact may vary due to their different biology. Knowing the expected relative impact on the two species over time for vector- and drug-based interventions, and the factors affecting this, could help plan and evaluate intervention strategies.

METHODS

For three interventions (treated bed nets (ITN), mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS)), we identified studies providing information on the proportion of clinical illness and patent infections attributed to P. vivax over time using a literature search. The change in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax up to two years since implementation was estimated using logistic regression accounting for clustering with random effects. Potential factors (intervention type, coverage, relapse pattern, transmission intensity, seasonality, initial proportion of P. vivax and round of intervention) were assessed.

RESULTS

In total there were 55 studies found that led to 72 series of time-points for clinical case data and 69 series for patent infection data. The main reason of study exclusion was insufficient information on interventions. There was considerable variation in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax over time by study and location for all of the interventions. Overall, there was an increase apart from MDA in the short-term. The potential factors could not be ruled in or out. Although not consistently significant, coverage, transmission intensity and relapse pattern are possible factors that explain some of the variation found.

CONCLUSION

While there are reports of an increase in the proportion of malaria due to P. vivax following interventions in the long-term, there was substantial variation for the shorter time-scales considered in this study (up to 24 months for IRS and ITN, and up to six months for MDA). The large variability points to the need for the monitoring of both species after an intervention. Studies should report intervention timing and characteristics to allow inclusion in systematic reviews.

Long-term transmission patterns and public health policies leading to malaria elimination in Panamá

Background

The present study provides a countrywide perspective of the malaria situation in Panamá over a long-term framework, with the purpose of identifying historical malaria resurgence events and their potential causes.

Methods

A descriptive-ecological study was conducted by analysing demographic and epidemiological annual malaria time series data in Panamá (1884–2019) using several data sources. Malaria intensity indicators were calculated during the study period. The effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on malaria transmission were also analysed using a retrospective analysis of malaria cases between 1957 and 2019.

Results

Several factors were identified responsible for malaria resurgence in Panamá, mostly related with Malaria Control Programme weakening. During the past 20 years (2000–2019) malaria has progressively increased in prevalence within indigenous settlements, with a predominance of male cases and a high proportion (15% of total cases) in children less than 5 years old. During this period, a significant and increasing proportion of the Plasmodium falciparum cases were imported. Retrospective analysis (1957–2019) evidenced that ENSO had a significant impact on malaria transmission dynamics in Panamá.

Conclusions

Data analysis confirmed that although authorities have been successful in focalizing malaria transmission in the country, there are still neglected issues to be solved and important intercultural barriers that need to be addressed in order to achieve elimination of the disease by 2022. This information will be useful for targeting strategies by the National Malaria Elimination Programme.

Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929-1931 compared with 1913-1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942-1946) to 26.4% (1947-1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009-2018) when compared with 1957-1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.

Population Dynamics of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) at Ipetí-Guna, a Village in a Region Targeted for Malaria Elimination in Panamá

Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann is a major malaria vector in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean whose population dynamics, in response to changing environments, has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present monthly adult and larvae data collected from May 2016 to December 2017 in Ipetí-Guna, a village within an area targeted for malaria elimination in the República de Panamá. During the study period we collected a total of 1678 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (1602 adults and 76 larvae). Over 95% of the collected Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were An. albimanus. Using time series analysis techniques, we found that population dynamics of larvae and adults were not significantly correlated with each other at any time lag, though correlations were highest at one month lag between larvae and adults and four months lag between adults and larvae. Larvae population dynamics had cycles of three months and were sensitive to changes in temperature with 5 months lag, while adult abundance was correlated with itself (1 month lag) and with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with three months lag. A key observation from our study is the absence of both larvae and adults of An. albimanus between January and April from environments associated with Guna population’s daily activities, which suggests this time window could be the best time to implement elimination campaigns aimed at clearing Plasmodium spp. parasites from Guna populations using, for example, mass drug administration.

Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985-2016)

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall.

RESULTS

Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem.

Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

BACKGROUND

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

RESULTS

Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.

Serological measures to assess the efficacy of malaria control programme on Ambae Island, Vanuatu

Background

Seroepidemiology can provide evidence for temporal changes in malaria transmission and is an important tool to evaluate the effectiveness of control interventions. During the early 2000s, Vanuatu experienced an acute increase in malaria incidence due to a lapse in funding for vector control. After the distribution of subsidised insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) resumed in 2003, malaria incidence decreased in the subsequent years. This study was conducted to find the serological evidence supporting the impact of ITN on exposure to Anopheles vector bites and parasite prevalence.

Methods

On Ambae Island, blood samples were collected from 231 and 282 individuals in 2003 and 2007, respectively. Parasite prevalence was determined by microscopy. Antibodies to three Plasmodium falciparum (PfSE, PfMSP-1₁₉, and PfAMA-1) and three Plasmodium vivax (PvSE, PvMSP-1₁₉, and PvAMA-1) antigens, as well as the Anopheles-specific salivary antigen gSG6, were detected by ELISA. Age-specific seroprevalence was analysed using a reverse catalytic modelling approach to estimate seroconversion rates (SCRs).

Results

Parasite rate decreased significantly (P < 0.001) from 19.0% in 2003 to 3.2% in 2007, with a shift from P. falciparum predominance to P. falciparum-P. vivax co-dominance. Significant (P < 0.001) decreases were observed in seroprevalence to all three P. falciparum antigens but only two of three P. vivax antigens (except PvAMA-1; P = 0.153), consistent with the more pronounced decrease in P. falciparum prevalence. Seroprevalence to gSG6 also decreased significantly (P < 0.001), suggesting that reduced exposure to vector bites was important to the decrease in parasite prevalence between 2003 and 2007. Analyses of age-specific seroprevalence showed a three-fold decrease in P. falciparum transmission, but the evidence for the decrease in P. vivax transmission was less clear.

Conclusions

Serological markers pointed to the effectiveness of ITNs in reducing malaria prevalence on Ambae Island between 2003 and 2007. The recombinant gSG6 antigen originally developed to indicate exposure to the Afrotropical vector An. gambiae may be used in the Pacific to complement the traditional measure of entomological inoculation rate (EIR).

Seasonal dynamics and microgeographical spatial heterogeneity of malaria along the China-Myanmar border

Malaria transmission is heterogeneous in the Greater Mekong Subregion with most of the cases occurring along international borders. Knowledge of transmission hotspots is essential for targeted malaria control and elimination in this region. This study aimed to determine the dynamics of malaria transmission and possible existence of transmission hotspots on a microgeographical scale along the China-Myanmar border. Microscopically confirmed clinical malaria cases were recorded in five border villages through a recently established surveillance system between January 2011 and December 2014. A total of 424 clinical cases with confirmed spatial and temporal information were analyzed, of which 330 (77.8%) were Plasmodium vivax and 88 (20.8%) were Plasmodium falciparum, respectively. The P. vivax and P. falciparum case ratio increased dramatically from 2.2 in 2011 to 4.7 in 2014, demonstrating that P. vivax malaria has become the predominant parasite species. Clinical infections showed a strong bimodal seasonality. There were significant differences in monthly average incidence rates among the study villages with rates in a village in China being 3-8 folds lower than those in nearby villages in Myanmar. Spatial analysis revealed the presence of clinical malaria hotspots in four villages. This information on malaria seasonal dynamics and transmission hotspots should be harnessed for planning targeted control.

Development and evaluation of mosquito-electrocuting traps as alternatives to the human landing catch technique for sampling host-seeking malaria vectors

Background

The human landing catch (HLC) is the gold standard method for sampling host-seeking malaria vectors. However, the HLC is ethically questionable because it requires exposure of humans to potentially infectious mosquito bites.

Methods

Two exposure-free methods for sampling host-seeking mosquitoes were evaluated using electrocuting surfaces as potential replacements for HLC: (1) a previously evaluated, commercially available electrocuting grid (CA-EG) designed for killing flies, and (2) a custom-made mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) designed to kill African malaria vectors. The MET and the CA-EG were evaluated relative to the HLC in a Latin Square experiment conducted in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. The sampling consistency of the traps across the night and at varying mosquito densities was investigated. Estimates of the proportion of mosquitoes caught indoors (P_i), proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π_i), and proportion of mosquitoes caught when most people are likely to be indoors (P_fl) were compared for all traps.

Results

Whereas the CA-EG performed poorly (<10 % of catch of HLC), sampling efficiency of the MET for sampling Anopheles funestuss.l. was indistinguishable from HLC indoors and outdoors. For Anopheles gambiae s.l., sampling sensitivity of MET was 20.9 % (95 % CI 10.3–42.2) indoors and 58.5 % (95 % CI 32.2–106.2) outdoors relative to HLC. There was no evidence of density-dependent sampling by the MET or CA-EG. Similar estimates of P_i were obtained for An. gambiaes.l. and An. funestus s.l. from all trapping methods. The proportion of mosquitoes caught when people are usually indoors (P_fl) was underestimated by the CA-EG and MET for An. gambiae s.l., but similar to the HLC for An. funestus. Estimates of the proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π_i) obtained from the CA-EG and MET were similar to the HLC for An. gambiae s.l., but overestimated for An. funestus.

Conclusions

The MET showed promise as an outdoor sampling tool for malaria vectors where it achieved >50 % sampling sensitivity relative to the HLC. The CA-EG had poor sampling sensitivity outdoors and inside. With further modification, the MET could provide an efficient and safer alternative to the HLC for the surveillance of mosquito vectors outdoors.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-1025-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determinants of the use of insecticide-treated bed nets on islands of pre- and post-malaria elimination: an application of the health belief model in Vanuatu

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are an integral piece of any malaria elimination strategy, but compliance remains a challenge and determinants of use vary by location and context. The Health Belief Model (HBM) is a tool to explore perceptions and beliefs about malaria and ITN use. Insights from the model can be used to increase coverage to control malaria transmission in island contexts.

METHODS

A mixed methods study consisting of a questionnaire and interviews was carried out in July 2012 on two islands of Vanuatu: Ambae Island where malaria transmission continues to occur at low levels, and Aneityum Island, where an elimination programme initiated in 1991 has halted transmission for several years.

RESULTS

For most HBM constructs, no significant difference was found in the findings between the two islands: the fear of malaria (99%), severity of malaria (55%), malaria-prevention benefits of ITN use (79%) and willingness to use ITNs (93%). ITN use the previous night on Aneityum (73%) was higher than that on Ambae (68%) though not statistically significant. Results from interviews and group discussions showed that participants on Ambae tended to believe that risk was low due to the perceived absence of malaria, while participants on Aneityum believed that they were still at risk despite the long absence of malaria. On both islands, seasonal variation in perceived risk, thermal discomfort, costs of replacing nets, a lack of money, a lack of nets, nets in poor condition and the inconvenience of hanging had negative influences, while free mass distribution with awareness campaigns and the malaria-prevention benefits had positive influences on ITN use.

CONCLUSIONS

The results on Ambae highlight the challenges of motivating communities to engage in elimination efforts when transmission continues to occur, while the results from Aneityum suggest the possibility of continued compliance to malaria elimination efforts given the threat of resurgence. Where a high degree of community engagement is possible, malaria elimination programmes may prove successful.

N-player mosquito net game: individual and social rationality in the misuse of insecticide-treated nets

Many governmental and non-governmental organizations have distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to malaria endemic areas, which contributed to the reduction of malaria deaths. However, some people in malaria endemic areas used ITNs for alternative purposes such as fishery and agriculture. It is unclear why people threatened by malaria misuse ITNs. Here we develop a N-player mosquito net game, and theoretically show that the misuse of ITNs might be underpinned by individual and social rationality. In the mosquito net game, each player uses ITNs for malaria prevention or alternative purposes. The proper ITN use decreases the probability of malaria infection, while the improper ITN use increases the player's labor productivity. Each player's expected payoff is influenced by other players' strategies. We found that the misuse of ITNs can be a Pareto efficient Nash equilibrium. The maximum number of players using ITNs for malaria prevention is limited by insecticidal effectiveness of ITNs and extra income from ITN misuse. Furthermore, we found that players in a low-income community are attracted to the misuse of ITNs even if the probability of malaria infection is high. Introduction of a tax on ITN misuse was shown to be effective to motivate the players to use ITNs for malaria prevention. Our results demonstrate that understanding decision making of people in malaria endemic areas is essential to design more effective malaria control programs.

Push by a net, pull by a cow: can zooprophylaxis enhance the impact of insecticide treated bed nets on malaria control?

BACKGROUND

Mass insecticide treated bed net (ITN) deployment, and its associated coverage of populations at risk, had "pushed" a decline in malaria transmission. However, it is unknown whether malaria control is being enhanced by zooprophylaxis, i.e., mosquitoes diverted to feed on hosts different from humans, a phenomenon that could further reduce malaria entomological transmission risk in areas where livestock herding is common.

METHODS

Between May and July 2009, we collected mosquitoes in 104 houses from three neighboring villages with high ITN coverage (over 80%), along Lake Victoria. We also performed a census of livestock in the area and georeferenced tethering points for all herds, as well as, mosquito larval habitats. Bloodmeal contents from sampled mosquitoes were analyzed, and each mosquito was individually tested for malaria sporozoite infections. We then evaluated the association of human density, ITN use, livestock abundance and larval habitats with mosquito abundance, bloodfeeding on humans and malaria sporozoite rate using generalized linear mixed effects models.

RESULTS

We collected a total of 8123 mosquitoes, of which 1664 were Anopheles spp. malaria vectors over 295 household spray catches. We found that vector household abundance was mainly driven by the number of householders (P < 0.05), goats/sheep tethered around the house (P < 0.05) and ITNs, which halved mosquito abundance (P < 0.05). In general, similar patterns were observed for Anopheles arabiensis, but not An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.s., whose density did not increase with the presence of livestock animals. Feeding on humans significantly increased in all species with the number of householders (P < 0.05), and only significantly decreased for An. arabiensis in the presence of cattle (P < 0.05). Only 26 Anopheles spp. vectors had malaria sporozoites with the sporozoite rate significantly decreasing as the proportion of cattle feeding mosquitoes increased (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that cattle, in settings with large ITN coverage, have the potential to drive an unexpected "push-pull" malaria control system, where An. arabiensis mosquitoes "pushed" out of human contact by ITNs are likely being further "pulled" by cattle.

Modest additive effects of integrated vector control measures on malaria prevalence and transmission in western Kenya

Background

The effect of integrating vector larval intervention on malaria transmission is unknown when insecticide-treated bed-net (ITN) coverage is very high, and the optimal indicator for intervention evaluation needs to be determined when transmission is low.

Methods

A post hoc assignment of intervention-control cluster design was used to assess the added effect of both indoor residual spraying (IRS) and Bacillus-based larvicides (Bti) in addition to ITN in the western Kenyan highlands in 2010 and 2011. Cross-sectional, mass parasite screenings, adult vector populations, and cohort of active case surveillance (ACS) were conducted before and after the intervention in three study sites with two- to three-paired intervention-control clusters at each site each year. The effect of larviciding, IRS, ITNs and other determinants of malaria risk was assessed by means of mixed estimating methods.

Results

Average ITN coverage increased from 41% in 2010 to 92% in 2011 in the study sites. IRS intervention had significant added impact on reducing vector density in 2010 but the impact was modest in 2011. The effect of IRS on reducing parasite prevalence was significant in 2011 but was seasonal specific in 2010. ITN was significantly associated with parasite densities in 2010 but IRS application was significantly correlated with reduced gametocyte density in 2011. IRS application reduced about half of the clinical malaria cases in 2010 and about one-third in 2011 compare to non-intervention areas.

Conclusion

Compared with a similar study conducted in 2005, the efficacy of the current integrated vector control with ITN, IRS, and Bti reduced three- to five-fold despite high ITN coverage, reflecting a modest added impact on malaria transmission. Additional strategies need to be developed to further reduce malaria transmission.

When they don't bite, we smell money: understanding malaria bednet misuse

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are a major tool to control malaria. Over recent years increased ITN coverage has been associated with decreased malaria transmission. However, ITN ‘misuse’ has been increasingly reported and whether this emergent behaviour poses a threat to successful malaria control and elimination is an open question. Here, we use a game theory mathematical model to understand the possible roles of poverty and malaria infection protection by individual and emerging ‘community effects’ on the ‘misuse’ of malaria bednets. We compare model predictions with data from our studies in Lake Victoria Islands (LVI), Kenya and Aneityum, Vanuatu. Our model shows that alternative ITN use is likely to emerge in impoverished populations and could be exacerbated if ITNs become ineffective or when large ‘community effects’ emerge. Our model predicted patterns of ITN use similar to the observed in LVI, where ‘misuse’ is common and the high ITN use in Aneityum, more than 20 years after malaria elimination in 1990. We think that observed differences in ITN use may be shaped by different degrees of economic and social development, and educational components of the Aneityum elimination, where traditional cooperative attitudes were strengthened with the malaria elimination intervention and post-elimination surveillance.

Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.

Changing patterns of malaria epidemiology between 2002 and 2010 in Western Kenya: the fall and rise of malaria

Background

The impact of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) on reducing malaria incidence is shown mainly through data collection from health facilities. Routine evaluation of long-term epidemiological and entomological dynamics is currently unavailable. In Kenya, new policies supporting the provision of free ITNs were implemented nationwide in June 2006. To evaluate the impacts of ITNs on malaria transmission, we conducted monthly surveys in three sentinel sites with different transmission intensities in western Kenya from 2002 to 2010.

Methods and Findings

Longitudinal samplings of malaria parasite prevalence in asymptomatic school children and vector abundance in randomly selected houses were undertaken monthly from February 2002. ITN ownership and usage surveys were conducted annually from 2004 to 2010. Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence and vector abundances gradually decreased in all three sites from 2002 to 2006, and parasite prevalence reached its lowest level from late 2006 to early 2007. The abundance of the major malaria vectors, Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae, increased about 5–10 folds in all study sites after 2007. However, the resurgence of vectors was highly variable between sites and species. By 2010, asymptomatic parasite prevalence in Kombewa had resurged to levels recorded in 2004/2005, but the resurgence was smaller in magnitude in the other sites. Household ITN ownership was at 50–70% in 2009, but the functional and effective bed net coverage in the population was estimated at 40.3%, 49.4% and 28.2% in 2010 in Iguhu, Kombewa, and Marani, respectively.

Conclusion

The resurgence in parasite prevalence and malaria vectors has been observed in two out of three sentinel sites in western Kenya despite a high ownership of ITNs. The likely factors contributing to malaria resurgence include reduced efficacy of ITNs, insecticide resistance in mosquitoes and lack of proper use of ITNs. These factors should be targeted to avoid further resurgence of malaria transmission.

Spleen rates in children: an old and new surveillance tool for malaria elimination initiatives in island settings

Spleen rates (SR) have been traditionally used to estimate the burden of malaria transmission. Results are presented from 51 surveys, which measured SR and parasite rates (PR) in 29,962 individuals in the archipelago of Vanuatu. Indices for spleen size computed with multivariate statistical tools outperformed the WHO average spleen index and showed that spleen sizes in a population can track shifts in malaria transmission. In general, a positive linear relationship between Plasmodium spp. PR and SR was found for the archipelago. In the context of malaria elimination and for the specific setting of this study we found that spleen examination is a useful tool in post-malaria elimination surveillance. Finally, results highlight the value of measuring spleen sizes to rapidly assess the impact of intervention packages aimed at malaria elimination or control.

School-based surveys of malaria in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: a rapid survey method for malaria in low transmission settings

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, malaria transmission is seasonal and unstable, with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax endemic. Such spatial and temporal clustering of malaria only serves to underscore the importance of regularly collecting up-to-date malaria surveillance data to inform decision-making in malaria control. Cross-sectional school-based malaria surveys were conducted across Oromia Regional State to generate up-to-date data for planning malaria control interventions, as well as monitoring and evaluation of operational programme implementation.

METHODS

Two hundred primary schools were randomly selected using a stratified and weighted sampling frame; 100 children aged five to 18 years were then randomly chosen within each school. Surveys were carried out in May 2009 and from October to December 2009, to coincide with the peak of malaria transmission in different parts of Oromia. Each child was tested for malaria by expert microscopy, their haemoglobin measured and a simple questionnaire completed. Satellite-derived environmental data were used to assess ecological correlates of Plasmodium infection; Bayesian geostatistical methods and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic were employed to investigate spatial heterogeneity.

RESULTS

A total 20,899 children from 197 schools provided blood samples, two selected schools were inaccessible and one school refused to participate. The overall prevalence of Plasmodium infection was found to be 0.56% (95% CI: 0.46-0.67%), with 53% of infections due to P. falciparum and 47% due to P. vivax. Of children surveyed, 17.6% (95% CI: 17.0-18.1%) were anaemic, while 46% reported sleeping under a mosquito net the previous night. Malaria was found at 30 (15%) schools to a maximum elevation of 2,187 metres, with school-level Plasmodium prevalence ranging between 0% and 14.5%. Although environmental variables were only weakly associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax infection, clusters of infection were identified within Oromia.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate the marked spatial heterogeneity of malaria in Oromia and, in general, Ethiopia, and provide a strong epidemiological basis for planning as well as monitoring and evaluating malaria control in a setting with seasonal and unstable malaria transmission.

Rapid increase in ownership and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets and decrease in prevalence of malaria in three regional States of ethiopia (2006-2007)

Following recent large scale-up of malaria control interventions in Ethiopia, this study aimed to compare ownership and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN), and the change in malaria prevalence using two population-based household surveys in three regions of the country. Each survey used multistage cluster random sampling with 25 households per cluster. Household net ownership tripled from 19.6% in 2006 to 68.4% in 2007, with mean LLIN per household increasing from 0.3 to 1.2. Net use overall more than doubled from 15.3% to 34.5%, but in households owning LLIN, use declined from 71.7% to 48.3%. Parasitemia declined from 4.1% to 0.4%. Large scale-up of net ownership over a short period of time was possible. However, a large increase in net ownership was not necessarily mirrored directly by increased net use. Better targeting of nets to malaria-risk areas and sustained behavioural change communication are needed to increase and maintain net use.

Meteorological variables and malaria in a Chinese temperate city: A twenty-year time-series data analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variation on malaria in a temperate region of China.

METHODS

A 20-year historical time-series data analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between meteorological variables, including maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, humidity, and cases of malaria in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China. Data were retrieved from 1959 and 1979 and analyzed on a monthly basis. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify time lag values between each meteorological variable and the number of malaria cases. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and malaria cases.

RESULTS

The SARIMA models indicate that a 1 degrees C rise in maximum temperature may be related to a 7.7% to 12.7% increase and a 1 degrees C rise in minimum temperature may result in approximately 11.8% to 15.8% increase in the number of malaria cases. A clear association between malaria and other selected weather variables, including rainfall and humidity, has not been detected in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature could play an important role in the transmission of malaria in temperate regions of China.

Using serological measures to monitor changes in malaria transmission in Vanuatu

Background

With renewed interest in malaria elimination, island environments present unique opportunities to achieve this goal. However, as transmission decreases, monitoring and evaluation programmes need increasingly sensitive tools to assess Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax exposure. In 2009, to assess the role of serological markers in evaluating malaria transmission, a cross-sectional seroprevalence study was carried out in Tanna and Aneityum, two of the southernmost islands of the Vanuatu archipelago, areas where malaria transmission has been variably reduced over the past few decades.

Methods

Malaria transmission was assessed using serological markers for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. Filter blood spot papers were collected from 1,249 people from Tanna, and 517 people from Aneityum to assess the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-1₁₉ and AMA-1) and two P. vivax antigens (MSP-1₁₉ and AMA-1). Age-specific prevalence was modelled using a simple catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate a community seroconversion rate (SCR).

Results

Overall seropositivity in Tanna was 9.4%, 12.4% and 16.6% to P. falciparum MSP-1₁₉, AMA-1 and Schizont Extract respectively and 12.6% and 15.0% to P. vivax MSP-1₁₉ and AMA-1 respectively. Serological results distinguished between areas of differential dominance of either P. vivax or P. falciparum and analysis of age-stratified results showed a step in seroprevalence occurring approximately 30 years ago on both islands, indicative of a change in transmission intensity at this time. Results from Aneityum suggest that several children may have been exposed to malaria since the 2002 P. vivax epidemic.

Conclusion

Seroepidemiology can provide key information on malaria transmission for control programmes, when parasite rates are low. As Vanuatu moves closer to malaria elimination, monitoring changes in transmission intensity and identification of residual malaria foci is paramount in order to concentrate intervention efforts.

Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate

In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales.

Global drivers of human pathogen richness and prevalence

The differences in the richness and prevalence of human pathogens among different geographical locations have ramifying consequences for societies and individuals. The relative contributions of different factors to these patterns, however, have not been fully resolved. We conduct a global analysis of the relative influence of climate, alternative host diversity and spending on disease prevention on modern patterns in the richness and prevalence of human pathogens. Pathogen richness (number of kinds) is largely explained by the number of birds and mammal species in a region. The most diverse countries with respect to birds and mammals are also the most diverse with respect to pathogens. Importantly, for human health, the prevalence of key human pathogens (number of cases) is strongly influenced by disease control efforts. As a consequence, even where disease richness is high, we might still control prevalence, particularly if we spend money in those regions where current spending is low, prevalence is high and populations are large.

Random, top-down, or bottom-up coexistence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settings

Epidemiological models concerned with the control of malaria using interventions such as bed nets and vaccines increasingly incorporate realistic aspects of malaria biology. The increasing complexity of these models limits their ability to abstract ecological processes and to address questions on the regulation of population dynamics using time-series data, particularly in regards to interactions between different pathogens and the regulatory role of innate (bottom-up) and acquired (top-down) immunity. We use a theoretical framework to test hypotheses on the importance of population-level immunity and parasite abundance in regulating the population dynamics of malaria. We use qualitative loop analyses to examine the sign of the interaction between Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax at the population level, and we discuss implications of this sign for the within-host regulation of parasites. Our analyses of monthly malaria time-series data from the island of Espirito Santo, Vanuatu (1983-1997), show that the dynamics of P. falciparum are not sensitive to P. vivax, whereas infections by the latter increase in response to those of the former. These results support a differential use of resources inside the hosts, a resource-consumer interaction between hosts and their immune system, and within-host regulation of parasites. Finally, our results emphasize the need to better understand factors regulating malaria dynamics before developing control strategies and call for the use of control strategies directed at the interruption of transmission, such as vector control and the use of bed nets.

The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Perú: 1994-2006

BACKGROUND

Malaria is the direct cause of approximately one million deaths worldwide each year, though it is both preventable and curable. Increasing the understanding of the transmission dynamics of falciparum and vivax malaria and their relationship could suggest improvements for malaria control efforts. Here the weekly number of malaria cases due to Plasmodium falciparum (1994-2006) and Plasmodium vivax (1999-2006) in Perú at different spatial scales in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data are analysed.

METHODS

Malaria periodicity patterns were analysed through wavelet spectral analysis, studied patterns of persistence as a function of community size and assessed spatial heterogeneity via the Lorenz curve and the summary Gini index.

RESULTS

Wavelet time series analyses identified annual cycles in the incidence of both malaria species as the dominant pattern. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was observed across jungle, mountain and coastal regions with slightly higher levels of spatial heterogeneity for P. vivax than P. falciparum. While the incidence of P. falciparum has been declining in recent years across geographic regions, P. vivax incidence has remained relatively steady in jungle and mountain regions with a slight decline in coastal regions. Factors that may be contributing to this decline are discussed. The time series of both malaria species were significantly synchronized in coastal (rho = 0.9, P < 0.0001) and jungle regions (rho = 0.76, P < 0.0001) but not in mountain regions. Community size was significantly associated with malaria persistence due to both species in jungle regions, but not in coastal and mountain regions.

CONCLUSION

Overall, findings highlight the importance of highly refined spatial and temporal data on malaria incidence together with demographic and geographic information in improving the understanding of malaria persistence patterns associated with multiple malaria species in human populations, impact of interventions, detection of heterogeneity and generation of hypotheses.

Climate and recruitment limitation of hosts: the dynamics of American cutaneous leishmaniasis seen through semi-mechanistic seasonal models

Diseases cycle as a response to endogenous and exogenous factors. For infectious diseases caused by vector-transmitted pathogens, the exogenous factors are commonly equated to climatic forces and the endogenous factors to the recruitment of new susceptible individuals. Mathematical models that explicitly (parametrically) consider both types of factor are, however, very rare. An approach is presented to model the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors parametrically, using a time series for American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) from Costa Rica. The seasonality of the disease is modelled using a seasonal autoregressive approach. The latter has the advantage of allowing the use of semi-mechanistic frameworks that consider infection clearance, while explicitly introducing the feedbacks produced by the transition between immune classes, as well as climatic forcing. It also uses a relatively small number of degrees of freedom (compared with the numbers involved in semi-parametric approaches), making it useful for relatively short time series and series with abrupt changes. Compared with non-mechanistic models built for prediction purposes, this way of modelling seems to increase the likelihood of the data being explained by a plausible mechanism. The approach used in this study of ACL could be useful in investigating the changes that occur in other diseases that show non-stationary seasonal dynamics, and can be easily adapted to model the dynamics of other infectious diseases that show trends or breakpoints. The present results support the view that humans affected by ACL are mostly incidental hosts, and indicate that, at the population level, there is a delay of about 5 months between human infection with the causative parasites and the onset of clinical symptoms. They encourage the development of surveillance systems, for monitoring the prevalence of infection in the sandflies that act as vectors, and the use of sentinel hosts, so that control measures can be rapidly applied or strengthened before a serious outbreak occurs. The development of more accurate mathematical models of ACL will depend largely on advances in the ecology of the disease and of all the hosts of the causative parasites.