Malaria paediatric hospitalization between 1999 and 2008 across Kenya

Monthly sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine-amodiaquine or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as malaria chemoprevention in young Kenyan children with sickle cell anemia: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) in areas of Africa with endemic malaria transmission are commonly prescribed malaria chemoprevention. Chemoprevention regimens vary between countries, and the comparative efficacy of prevention regimens is largely unknown.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We enrolled Kenyan children aged 1 to 10 years with homozygous hemoglobin S (HbSS) in a randomized, open-label trial conducted between January 23, 2018, and December 15, 2020, in Homa Bay, Kenya. Children were assigned 1:1:1 to daily Proguanil (the standard of care), monthly sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine-amodiaquine (SP-AQ), or monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and followed monthly for 12 months. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of clinical malaria at 12 months, and the main secondary outcome was the cumulative incidence of painful events by self-report. Secondary outcomes included other parasitologic, hematologic, and general events. Negative binomial models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) per patient-year (PPY) at risk relative to Proguanil. The primary analytic population was the As-Treated population. A total of 246 children were randomized to daily Proguanil (n = 81), monthly SP-AQ (n = 83), or monthly DP (n = 82). Overall, 53.3% (n = 131) were boys and the mean age was 4.6 ± 2.5 years. The clinical malaria incidence was 0.04 episodes/PPY; relative to the daily Proguanil group, incidence rates were not significantly different in the monthly SP-AQ (IRR: 3.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 26.14; p = 0.39) and DP (IRR: 1.36, 95% CI: 0.21 to 8.85; p = 0.90) groups. Among secondary outcomes, relative to the daily Proguanil group, the incidence of painful events was not significantly different in the monthly SP-AQ and DP groups, while monthly DP was associated with a reduced rate of dactylitis (IRR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.96; p = 0.038). The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection relative to daily Proguanil was similar in the monthly SP-AQ group (IRR 0.46; 95% CI: 0.17 to 1.20; p = 0.13) but reduced with monthly DP (IRR 0.21; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.56; p = 0.002). Serious adverse events were common and distributed between groups, although compared to daily Proguanil (n = 2), more children died receiving monthly SP-AQ (n = 7; hazard ratio [HR] 5.44; 95% CI: 0.92 to 32.11; p = 0.064) but not DP (n = 1; HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.04 to 9.22; p = 0.89), although differences did not reach statistical significance for either SP-AQ or DP. Study limitations include the unexpectedly limited transmission of P. falciparum in the study setting, the high use of hydroxyurea, and the enhanced supportive care for trial participants, which may limit generalizability to higher-transmission settings where routine sickle cell care is more limited.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study with limited malaria transmission, malaria chemoprevention in Kenyan children with SCA with monthly SP-AQ or DP did not reduce clinical malaria, but DP was associated with reduced dactylitis and P. falciparum parasitization. Pragmatic studies of chemoprevention in higher malaria transmission settings are warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03178643). Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry: PACTR201707002371165.

A systematic review of changing malaria disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000: comparing model predictions and empirical observations

BACKGROUND

The most widely used measures of declining burden of malaria across sub-Saharan Africa are predictions from geospatial models. These models apply spatiotemporal autocorrelations and covariates to parasite prevalence data and then use a function of parasite prevalence to predict clinical malaria incidence. We attempted to assess whether trends in malaria cases, based on local surveillance, were similar to those captured by Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) incidence surfaces.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review (PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; ID = CRD42019116834) to identify empirical data on clinical malaria in Africa since 2000, where reports covered at least 5 continuous years. The trends in empirical data were then compared with the trends of time-space matched clinical malaria incidence from MAP using the Spearman rank correlation. The correlations (rho) between changes in empirically observed and modelled estimates of clinical malaria were displayed by forest plots and examined by meta-regression.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria representing 124 sites from 24 African countries. The single most important factor explaining the correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions was the slope of empirically observed data over time (rho = - 0.989; 95% CI - 0.998, - 0.939; p < 0.001), i.e. steeper declines were associated with a stronger correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions. Factors such as quality of study, reported measure of malaria and endemicity were only slightly predictive of such correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

In many locations, both local surveillance data and modelled estimates showed declines in malaria burden and hence similar trends. However, there was a weak association between individual surveillance datasets and the modelled predictions where stalling in progress or resurgence of malaria burden was empirically observed. Surveillance data were patchy, indicating a need for improved surveillance to strengthen both empiric reporting and modelled predictions.

Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups

Background

Parasite prevalence has been used widely as a measure of malaria transmission, especially in malaria endemic areas. However, its contribution and relationship to malaria mortality across different age groups has not been well investigated. Previous studies in a health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) platform in western Kenya quantified the contribution of incidence and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) to mortality. The study assessed the relationship between outcomes of malaria parasitaemia surveys and mortality across age groups.

Methods

Parasitological data from annual cross-sectional surveys from the Kisumu HDSS between 2007 and 2015 were used to determine malaria parasite prevalence (PP) and clinical malaria (parasites plus reported fever within 24 h or temperature above 37.5 °C). Household surveys and verbal autopsy (VA) were used to obtain data on all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. Bayesian negative binomial geo-statistical regression models were used to investigate the association of PP/clinical malaria with mortality across different age groups. Estimates based on yearly data were compared with those from aggregated data over 4 to 5-year periods, which is the typical period that mortality data are available from national demographic and health surveys.

Results

Using 5-year aggregated data, associations were established between parasite prevalence and malaria-specific mortality in the whole population (RR_malaria = 1.66; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals: 1.07–2.54) and children 1–4 years (RR_malaria = 2.29; 1.17–4.29). While clinical malaria was associated with both all-cause and malaria-specific mortality in combined ages (RR_all-cause = 1.32; 1.01–1.74); (RR_malaria = 2.50; 1.27–4.81), children 1–4 years (RR_all-cause = 1.89; 1.00–3.51); (RR_malaria = 3.37; 1.23–8.93) and in older children 5–14 years (RR_all-cause = 3.94; 1.34–11.10); (RR_malaria = 7.56; 1.20–39.54), no association was found among neonates, adults (15–59 years) and the elderly (60+ years). Distance to health facilities, socioeconomic status, elevation and survey year were important factors for all-cause and malaria-specific mortality.

Conclusion

Malaria parasitaemia from cross-sectional surveys was associated with mortality across age groups over 4 to 5 year periods with clinical malaria more strongly associated with mortality than parasite prevalence. This effect was stronger in children 5–14 years compared to other age-groups. Further analyses of data from other HDSS sites or similar platforms would be useful in investigating the relationship between malaria and mortality across different endemicity levels.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2869-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exploring communities' and health workers' perceptions of indicators and drivers of malaria decline in Malindi, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Since 2000, a decrease in malaria burden has been observed in most endemic countries. Declining infection rates and disease burden and reduction in asymptomatic carriers are the outcome of improved quality of care and related health system factors. These include improved case management through better diagnosis, implementation of highly effective antimalarial drugs and increased use of bednets. We studied communities' and health workers' perceptions of indicators and drivers in the context of decreasing malaria transmission in Malindi, Kenya.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A variety of qualitative methods that included participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools such as community river of life and trend lines, focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews were used. Studies took place between November 2013 and April 2014.

RESULTS

Providing residents with bednets contributed to malaria reduction, and increasing community awareness on the causes and symptoms of malaria and improved malaria treatment were also perceived to contribute to the decline of malaria. The study identified three perceived drivers to the reported decline in malaria: a) community health workers' enhanced awareness creation towards household owners regarding malaria-related activities through visitations and awareness sessions, b) Women involvement in Savings Internal Lending Community was perceived to have increased their financial base, thereby improving their decision-making power towards the care of their sick child(ren), c) Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and partners played a promoter part in health and general economic development initiatives.

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve the goal of malaria elimination, collaboration between governmental and NGOs will be crucial when improving the financial base of women and enhancing participation of community health workers.

The impact of an insecticide treated bednet campaign on all-cause child mortality: A geospatial impact evaluation from the Democratic Republic of Congo

OBJECTIVE

To test the impact of a nationwide Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets [LLINs] distribution program in the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] on all-cause under-five child mortality exploiting subnational variation in malaria endemicity and the timing in the scale-up of the program across provinces.

DESIGN

Geospatial Impact Evaluation using a difference-in-differences approach.

SETTING

Democratic Republic of the Congo.

PARTICIPANTS

52,656 children sampled in the 2007 and 2013/2014 DRC Demographic and Health Surveys.

INTERVENTIONS

The analysis provides plausibly causal estimates of both average treatment effects of the LLIN distribution campaign and geospatial heterogeneity in these effects based on malaria endemicity. It compares the under-five, all-cause mortality for children pre- and post-LLIN campaign relative to children in those areas that had not yet been exposed to the campaign using a difference-in-differences model and controlling for year- and province-fixed effects, and province-level trends in mortality.

RESULTS

We find that the campaign led to a 41% decline [3.7 percentage points, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.0] in under-5 mortality risk among children living in rural areas with malaria ecology above the sample median. Results were robust to controlling for household assets and the presence of other health aid programs. No effect was detected in children living in areas with malaria ecology below the median.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this paper make important contributions to the evidence base for the effectiveness of large scale-national LLIN campaigns against malaria. We found that the program was effective in areas of the DRC with the highest underlying risk of malaria. Targeting bednets to areas with greatest underlying risk for malaria may help to increase the efficiency of increasingly limited malaria resources but should be balanced against other malaria control concerns.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified 6 hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people were asleep was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoors asleep. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were asleep was consistently high across all locations, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited.

Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness.

Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified 6 hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people were asleep was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoors asleep. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were asleep was consistently high across all locations, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00.

Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained significant modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified significant hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people are indoor was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoor. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were indoor was consistently high, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Selective sweeps and genetic lineages of Plasmodium falciparum multi-drug resistance (pfmdr1) gene in Kenya

BACKGROUND

There are concerns that resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapy might emerge in Kenya and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the same pattern as was with chloroquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in critical alleles of pfmdr1 gene have been associated with resistance to artemisinin and its partner drugs. Microsatellite analysis of loci flanking genes associated with anti-malarial drug resistance has been used in defining the geographic origins, dissemination of resistant parasites and identifying regions in the genome that have been under selection.

METHODS

This study set out to investigate evidence of selective sweep and genetic lineages in pfmdr1 genotypes associated with the use of artemether-lumefantrine (AL), as the first-line treatment in Kenya. Parasites (n = 252) from different regions in Kenya were assayed for SNPs at codons 86, 184 and 1246 and typed for 7 neutral microsatellites and 13 microsatellites loci flanking (± 99 kb) pfmdr1 in Plasmodium falciparum infections.

RESULTS

The data showed differential site and region specific prevalence of SNPs associated with drug resistance in the pfmdr1 gene. The prevalence of pfmdr1 N86, 184F, and D1246 in western Kenya (Kisumu, Kericho and Kisii) compared to the coast of Kenya (Malindi) was 92.9% vs. 66.7%, 53.5% vs. to 24.2% and 96% vs. to 87.9%, respectively. The NFD haplotype which is consistent with AL selection was at 51% in western Kenya compared to 25% in coastal Kenya.

CONCLUSION

Selection pressures were observed to be different in different regions of Kenya, especially the western region compared to the coastal region. The data showed independent genetic lineages for all the pfmdr1 alleles. The evidence of soft sweeps in pfmdr1 observed varied in direction from one region to another. This is challenging for malaria control programs in SSA which clearly indicate effective malaria control policies should be based on the region and not at a country wide level.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained significant modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified significant hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people are indoor was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoor. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were indoor was consistently high, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data therefore do not support the hypothesis that outdoor biting limits the effectiveness of ITNs in our study area.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites.  Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models.

Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs.

Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes.  Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites. Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes. Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs.

Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement.

Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied.

Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa

Since 2010, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, including National Malaria Control Programs, donor agencies (e.g., President's Malaria Initiative and Global Fund), and other stakeholders have been evaluating the impact of scaling up malaria control interventions on all-cause under-five mortality in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The evaluation framework assesses whether the deployed interventions have had an impact on malaria morbidity and mortality and requires consideration of potential nonintervention influencers of transmission, such as drought/floods or higher temperatures. Herein, we assess the likely effect of climate on the assessment of the impact malaria interventions in 10 priority countries/regions in eastern, western, and southern Africa for the President's Malaria Initiative. We used newly available quality controlled Enhanced National Climate Services rainfall and temperature products as well as global climate products to investigate likely impacts of climate on malaria evaluations and test the assumption that changing the baseline period can significantly impact on the influence of climate in the assessment of interventions. Based on current baseline periods used in national malaria impact assessments, we identify three countries/regions where current evaluations may overestimate the impact of interventions (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Uganda) and three countries where current malaria evaluations may underestimate the impact of interventions (Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia). In four countries (Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola) there was no strong difference in climate suitability for malaria in the pre- and post-intervention period. In part, this may be due to data quality and analysis issues.

Methodological Considerations for Use of Routine Health Information System Data to Evaluate Malaria Program Impact in an Era of Declining Malaria Transmission

Coverage of malaria control interventions is increasing dramatically across endemic countries. Evaluating the impact of malaria control programs and specific interventions on health indicators is essential to enable countries to select the most effective and appropriate combination of tools to accelerate progress or proceed toward malaria elimination. When key malaria interventions have been proven effective under controlled settings, further evaluations of the impact of the intervention using randomized approaches may not be appropriate or ethical. Alternatives to randomized controlled trials are therefore required for rigorous evaluation under conditions of routine program delivery. Routine health management information system (HMIS) data are a potentially rich source of data for impact evaluation, but have been underused in impact evaluation due to concerns over internal validity, completeness, and potential bias in estimates of program or intervention impact. A range of methodologies were identified that have been used for impact evaluations with malaria outcome indicators generated from HMIS data. Methods used to maximize internal validity of HMIS data are presented, together with recommendations on reducing bias in impact estimates. Interrupted time series and dose-response analyses are proposed as the strongest quasi-experimental impact evaluation designs for analysis of malaria outcome indicators from routine HMIS data. Interrupted time series analysis compares the outcome trend and level before and after the introduction of an intervention, set of interventions or program. The dose-response national platform approach explores associations between intervention coverage or program intensity and the outcome at a subnational (district or health facility catchment) level.

Cost effectiveness of pre-referral antimalarial treatment in severe malaria among children in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

In 2013, 78% of malaria deaths occurred in children aged 5 years and below, in sub-Saharan Africa. Treatment of severe malaria requires a health facility with inpatient care. However, in most sub-Sahara African countries, access to health facilities is a major problem. Pre-referral antimalarial treatments aim to delay the progress of severe malaria as patients seek to access health facilities. Rectal artesunate can be administered in the community as a pre-referral treatment in rural hard-to-reach areas. In Kenya, though pre-referral rectal artesunate has been included in the National Guidelines for pre-referral treatment, it is yet to be implemented in the public healthcare system. It is important, therefore, to establish its cost-utility compared to current parenteral treatments. This study evaluated the cost-utility of provision of pre-referral treatments by community health workers compared to similar services at a primary health facility.

METHODS

This was a decision model-based cost-utility analysis, comparing pre-referral antimalarial treatments provided by: community health workers (CHWs), primary health facility, direct access to a tertiary health facility and no access to treatment. A theoretical cohort, of 1000 children, who were below 5 years old; residing in rural hard-to-reach areas, was taken as the reference population. Data was collected through key informant interviews, to assess the costs, while key measures of effectiveness, were obtained from existing studies. The key measure of outcomes was Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYS) averted. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Provision of rectal pre-referral treatment by community health workers was estimated to avert 13,276 DALYs, at a cost of $68,428 for a cohort of 1000 children. Provision of rectal pre-referral treatment at a primary health facility was estimated to avert 9993 DALYs, at a cost of $73,826 for a cohort of 1000 children, while going directly to a tertiary health facility was estimated to avert 15,801 DALYs, at a cost of $114,903 for a cohort of 1000 children. The incremental cost effectiveness ratios for provision of pre-referral treatment by community health care and primary health workers were $5.11 and $7.30 per DALYs averted respectively.

CONCLUSION

Use of CHWs was more cost effective than provision of pre-referral treatments at a primary health facility especially, with high referral compliance. Rectal artesunate can easily be administered by community health workers, unlike parenteral pre-referral interventions.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs. Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement. Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied. Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Contribution of urinary tract infection to the burden of febrile illnesses in young children in rural Kenya

INTRODUCTION

The clinical features of UTI in young children may not localize to the urinary tract and closely resemble other febrile illnesses. In malaria endemic areas, a child presenting with fever is often treated presumptively for malaria without investigation for UTI. Delayed or inadequate treatment of UTI increases the risk of bacteremia and renal scarring in young children and subsequently complications as hypertension and end stage renal disease in adulthood.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out in a hospital in western Kenya. Inpatients and outpatients 2 months to five years with axillary temperature ≥37.5°C and no antibiotic use in the previous week were enrolled between September 2012 and April 2013. Urine dipstick tests, microscopy, and cultures were done and susceptibility patterns to commonly prescribed antibiotics established. UTI was defined as presence of pyuria (a positive urine dipstick or microscopy test) plus a positive urine culture.

RESULTS

A total of 260 subjects were recruited; 45.8% were female and the median age was 25months (IQR: 13, 43.5). The overall prevalence of UTI was 11.9%. Inpatients had a higher prevalence compared to outpatients (17.9% v 7.8%, p = 0.027). UTI co-existed with malaria but the association was not significant (OR 0.80, p = 0.570). The most common organisms isolated were Escherichia coli (64.5%) and Staphylococcus aureus (12.9%) and were sensitive to ciproflaxin, cefuroxime, ceftriaxone, gentamycin and nitrofurantoin but largely resistant to more commonly used antibiotics such as ampicillin (0%), amoxicillin (16.7%), cotrimoxazole (16.7%) and amoxicillin-clavulinate (25%).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates UTI contributes significantly to the burden of febrile illness in young children and often co-exists with other infections. Multi-drug resistant organisms are common therefore choice of antimicrobial therapy should be based on local sensitivity pattern.

Exploring the use of routinely-available, retrospective data to study the association between malaria control scale-up and micro-economic outcomes in Zambia

BACKGROUND

Country-level evidence on the impact of malaria control on micro-economic outcomes is vital for mobilizing domestic and donor resources for malaria control. Using routinely available survey data could facilitate this investigation in a cost-efficient way.

METHODS

The authors used Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) and Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data from 2006 to 2010 for all 72 districts in Zambia to relate malaria control scale-up with household food spending (proxy for household well-being), educational attainment and agricultural production. The authors used two quasi-experimental designs: (1) a generalized propensity score for a continuous treatment variable (defined as coverage from owning insecticide-treated bed nets and/or receipt of indoor residual spraying); and, (2) a district fixed effects model to assess changes in the outcome relative to changes in treatment pre-post scale-up. The unit of analysis was at district level. The authors also conducted simulations post-analysis to assess statistical power.

RESULTS

Micro-economic outcomes increased (33% increase in food spending) concurrently with malaria control coverage (62% increase) from 2006 to 2010. Despite using data from all 72 districts, both analytic methods yielded wide confidence intervals that do not conclusively link outcomes and malaria control coverage increases. The authors cannot rule out positive, null or negative effects. The upper bound estimates of the results show that if malaria control coverage increases from 60 to 70%, food spending could increase up to 14%, maize production could increase up to 57%, and years of schooling could increase up to 0.5 years. Simulations indicated that the generalized propensity score model did not have good statistical power.

CONCLUSION

While it is technically possible to use routinely available survey data to relate malaria control scale-up and micro-economic outcomes, it is not clear from this analysis that meaningful results can be obtained when survey data are highly aggregated. Researchers in similar settings should assess the feasibility of disaggregating existing survey data. Additionally, large surveys, such as LCMS and MIS, could incorporate data on both malaria coverage and household expenditures, respectively.

Use of administrative records to assess pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact on pediatric meningitis and pneumonia hospitalizations in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Ongoing surveillance is critical to assessing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) impact over time. However, robust prospective studies are difficult to implement in resource-poor settings. We evaluated retrospective use of routinely collected data to estimate PCV impact in Rwanda.

METHODS

We collected data from admission registers at five district hospitals on children age <5yearsadmitted for suspected meningitis and pneumonia during 2002-2012. We obtained clinical and laboratory data on meningitis from sentinel surveillance at the national reference hospital in Kigali. We developed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate PCV effectiveness (VE) against severe pneumonia and probable bacterial meningitis and Poisson models to estimate absolute rate reductions. Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine was introduced in January 2002, PCV7 in April 2009 and PCV13 in August 2011.

RESULTS

At the district hospitals, the severe pneumonia and suspected meningitis hospitalization rates decreased by 70/100,000 and 11/100,000 children for 2012 compared to baseline, respectively. VE against severe pneumonia calculated from logistic regression was 54% (95% CI 42-63%). In Kigali, from 2002 to 2012, annual suspected meningitis cases decreased from 170 pre-PCV7 to 40 post-PCV13 and confirmed pneumococcal meningitis cases from 7 to 0. VE against probable bacterial meningitis was 42% (95% CI -4% to 68%).

CONCLUSION

In a resource-poor African setting, analysis of district hospital admission logbooks and routine sentinel surveillance data produced results consistent with more sophisticated impact studies conducted elsewhere. Our findings support applying this methodology in other settings and confirm the benefits of PCV in Rwanda.

Insecticide-Treated Net Campaign and Malaria Transmission in Western Kenya: 2003-2015

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are among the three major intervention measures that have reduced malaria transmission in the past decade. However, increased insecticide resistance in vectors, together with outdoor transmission, has limited the efficacy of the ITN scaling-up efforts. Observations on longitudinal changes in ITN coverage and its impact on malaria transmission allow policy makers to make informed adjustments to control strategies. We analyzed field surveys on ITN ownership, malaria parasite prevalence, and malaria vector population dynamics in seven sentinel sites in western Kenya from 2003 to 2015. We found that ITN ownership has increased from an average of 18% in 2003 to 85% in 2015. Malaria parasite prevalence in school children decreased by about 70% from 2003 to 2008 (the first mass distribution of free ITNs was in 2006) but has resurged by >50% since then. At the community level, use of ITNs reduced infections by 23% in 2008 and 43% in 2010, although the reduction was down to 25% in 2011. The indoor-resting density of the predominant vector, Anopheles gambiae, has been suppressed since 2007; however, Anopheles funestus populations have resurged and have increased 20-fold in some places since 2007. In conclusion, there is limited room for further increase in ITN coverage in western Kenya. The rebounding in malaria transmission highlights the urgent need of new or improved malaria control interventions so as to further reduce malaria transmission.

What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?

Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs.

Narrative review of current context of malaria and management strategies in Uganda (Part I)

In accordance with international targets, the Uganda National Malaria Control Strategic Plan established specific targets to be achieved by 2010. For children under five, this included increasing the number of children sleeping under mosquito nets and those receiving a first-line antimalarial to 85%, and decreasing case fatality to 2%. This narrative review offers contextual information relevant to malaria management in Uganda since the advent of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) as first-line antimalarial treatment in 2004. A comprehensive search using key words and phrases was conducted using the web search engines Google and Google Scholar, as well as the databases of PubMed, ERIC, EMBASE, CINAHL, OvidSP (MEDLINE), PSYC Info, Springer Link, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched. A total of 147 relevant international and Ugandan literature sources meeting the inclusion criteria were included. This review provides an insightful understanding on six topic areas: global and local priorities, malarial pathology, disease burden, malaria control, treatment guidelines for uncomplicated malaria, and role of the health system in accessing antimalarial medicines. Plasmodium falciparum remains the most common cause of malaria in Uganda, with children under five being most vulnerable due to their underdeveloped immunity. While international efforts to scale up malaria control measures have resulted in considerable decline in malaria incidence and mortality in several regions of sub-Saharan Africa, this benefit has yet to be substantiated for Uganda. At the local level, key initiatives have included implementation of a new antimalarial drug policy in 2004 and strengthening of government health systems and programs. Examples of such programs include removal of user fees, training of frontline health workers, providing free ACT from government systems and subsidized ACT from licensed private outlets, and introduction of the integrated community case management program to bring diagnostics and treatment for malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea closer to the community. However despite notable efforts, Uganda is far from achieving its 2010 targets. Several challenges in the delivery of care and treatment remain, with those most vulnerable and living in rural settings remaining at greatest risk from malaria morbidity and mortality.

Genetic variability and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from different malaria ecological regions of Kenya

Transmission intensity, movement of human and vector hosts, biogeographical features, and malaria control measures are some of the important factors that determine Plasmodium falciparum parasite genetic variability and population structure. Kenya has different malaria ecologies which might require different disease intervention methods. Refined parasite population genetic studies are critical for informing malaria control and elimination strategies. This study describes the genetic diversity and population structure of P. falciparum parasites from the different malaria ecological zones in Kenya. Twelve multi-locus microsatellite (MS) loci previously described were genotyped in 225 P. falciparum isolates collected between 2012 and 2013 from five sites; three in lowland endemic regions (Kisumu, Kombewa, and Malindi) and two in highland, epidemic regions (Kisii and Kericho). Parasites from the lowland endemic and highland epidemic regions of western Kenya had high genetic diversity compared to coastal lowland endemic region of Kenya [Malindi]. The Kenyan parasites had a mean genetic differentiation index (FST) of 0.072 (p=0.011). The multi-locus genetic analysis of the 12 MS revealed all the parasites had unique haplotypes. Significant linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in all the five parasite populations. Kisumu had the most significant index of association values (0.16; p<0.0001) whereas Kisii had the least significant index of association values (0.03; p<0.0001). Our data suggest high genetic diversity in Kenyan parasite population with the exception of parasite from Malindi where malaria has been on the decline. The presence of significant LD suggests that there is occurrence of inbreeding in the parasite population. Parasite populations from Kisii showed the strongest evidence for epidemic population structure whereas the rest of the regions showed panmixia. Defining the genetic diversity of the parasites in different ecological regions of Kenya after introduction of the artemether-lumefantrine is important in refining the spread of drug resistant strains and malaria transmission for more effective control and eventual elimination of malaria in Kenya.

An insecticide-treated bed-net campaign and childhood malaria in Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVE

To investigate if the first national insecticide-treated bed-net campaign in Burkina Faso, done in 2010, was followed by a decrease in childhood malaria in a district with high baseline transmission of the disease.

METHODS

We obtained data on the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia in children aged 2 weeks to 36 months from malaria surveys in 2009 and 2011. We assessed morbidity in children younger than 5 years by comparing data from the Nouna health district's health management information system before and after the campaign in 2010. We analysed mortality data from 2008 to 2012 from Nouna's health and demographic surveillance system.

FINDINGS

The bed-net campaign was associated with an increase in the reported use of insecticide-treated nets. In 2009, 73% (630/869) of children reportedly slept under nets. In 2011, 92% (449/487) did. The campaign had no effect on the proportion of young children with P. falciparum parasitaemia after the rainy season; 52% (442/858) in 2009 and 53% (263/499) in 2011. Cases of malaria increased markedly after the campaign, as did the number of children presenting with other diseases. The campaign was not associated with any changes in child mortality.

CONCLUSION

The 2010 insecticide-treated net campaign in Burkina Faso was not associated with a decrease in care-seeking for malaria or all-cause mortality in children younger than 5 years. The most likely explanation is the high coverage of nets in the study area before the campaign which could have had an effect on mosquito vectors, limiting the campaign's impact.

Unraveling Host-Vector-Arbovirus Interactions by Two-Gene High Resolution Melting Mosquito Bloodmeal Analysis in a Kenyan Wildlife-Livestock Interface

The blood-feeding patterns of mosquitoes are directly linked to the spread of pathogens that they transmit. Efficient identification of arthropod vector bloodmeal hosts can identify the diversity of vertebrate species potentially involved in disease transmission cycles. While molecular bloodmeal analyses rely on sequencing of cytochrome b (cyt b) or cytochrome oxidase 1 gene PCR products, recently developed bloodmeal host identification based on high resolution melting (HRM) analyses of cyt b PCR products is more cost-effective. To resolve the diverse vertebrate hosts that mosquitoes may potentially feed on in sub-Saharan Africa, we utilized HRM profiles of both cyt b and 16S ribosomal RNA genes. Among 445 blood-fed Aedeomyia, Aedes, Anopheles, Culex, Mansonia, and Mimomyia mosquitoes from Kenya’s Lake Victoria and Lake Baringo regions where many mosquito-transmitted pathogens are endemic, we identified 33 bloodmeal hosts including humans, eight domestic animal species, six peridomestic animal species and 18 wildlife species. This resolution of vertebrate host species was only possible by comparing profiles of both cyt b and 16S markers, as melting profiles of some pairs of species were similar for either marker but not both. We identified mixed bloodmeals in a Culex pipiens from Mbita that had fed on a goat and a human and in two Mansonia africana mosquitoes from Baringo that each had fed on a rodent (Arvicanthis niloticus) in addition to a human or baboon. We further detected Sindbis and Bunyamwera viruses in blood-fed mosquito homogenates by Vero cell culture and RT-PCR in Culex, Aedeomyia, Anopheles and Mansonia mosquitoes from Baringo that had fed on humans and livestock. The observed mosquito feeding on both arbovirus amplifying hosts (including sheep and goats) and possible arbovirus reservoirs (birds, porcupine, baboons, rodents) informs arbovirus disease epidemiology and vector control strategies.

What Is Threatening the Effectiveness of Insecticide-Treated Bednets? A Case-Control Study of Environmental, Behavioral, and Physical Factors Associated with Prevention Failure

Background

Insecticide-treated nets are the cornerstone of global malaria control and have been shown to reduce malaria morbidity by 50–60%. However, some areas are experiencing a resurgence in malaria following successful control. We describe an efficacy decay framework to understand why high malaria burden persists even under high ITN coverage in a community in western Kenya.

Methods

We enrolled 442 children hospitalized with malaria and paired them with age, time, village and gender-matched controls. We completed comprehensive household and neighborhood assessments including entomological surveillance. The indicators are grouped into five domains in an efficacy decay framework: ITN ownership, compliance, physical integrity, vector susceptibility and facilitating factors. After variable selection, case-control data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models and mosquito data were analyzed using negative binomial regression. Predictive margins were calculated from logistic regression models.

Results

Measures of ITN coverage and physical integrity were not correlated with hospitalized malaria in our study. However, consistent ITN use (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 0.23, 95%CI: 0.12–0.43), presence of nearby larval sites (AOR = 1.137, 95%CI: 1.02–1.27), and specific types of crops (AOR (grains) = 0.446, 95%CI: 0.24–0.82) were significantly correlated with malaria amongst children who owned an ITN. The odds of hospitalization for febrile malaria nearly tripled when one other household member had symptomatic malaria infection (AOR–2.76, 95%CI:1.83–4.18). Overall, perfect household adherence could reduce the probability of hospitalization for malaria to less than 30% (95%CI:0.12–0.46) and adjusting environmental factors such as elimination of larval sites and growing grains nearby could reduce the probability of hospitalization for malaria to less than 20% (95%CI:0.04–0.31).

Conclusion

Availability of ITNs is not the bottleneck for malaria prevention in this community. Behavior change interventions to improve compliance and environmental management of mosquito breeding habitats may greatly enhance ITN efficacy. A better understanding of the relationship between agriculture and mosquito survival and feeding success is needed.

The Impact of a Community Awareness Strategy on Caregiver Treatment Seeking Behaviour and Use of Artemether-Lumefantrine for Febrile Children in Rural Kenya

BACKGROUND

Access to prompt and effective treatment is the cornerstone for malaria control. Population Services International in collaboration with the Ministry of Health launched a malaria behaviour change communication intervention in Nyanza province, Kenya. The initiative aimed to improve: symptom recognition and prompt access to government health facilities for febrile children; effective treatment with the recommended first-line drug artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in public health facilities and adherence to the AL regimen.

METHODS

Pre- and post-intervention cross-sectional household surveys were used to evaluate the impact of the intervention on prompt and correct use of AL for febrile children below five years of age. The primary outcome was the proportion of children below five years of age with fever in the last 14 days accessing AL within 48 hours of fever onset.

RESULTS

There was an increase from 62.8% pre-intervention to 79.4% post-intervention (95% CI: 11.1, 22.1) in caregivers who reported seeking formal treatment promptly (on the same day, or next day) for their febrile children. However, there was a decrease in the use of government health facilities in the post-intervention period. There was a small increase in the proportion of children accessing AL within 48 hours of fever onset [18.4% vs 23.5% (0.1-10.0)].

CONCLUSION

The findings of this evaluation demonstrate that interventions that target only one sector may have a limited impact on improvements in prompt and effective treatment where multiple sources of treatments are sought for febrile illness. Additionally, the context in which an intervention is implemented is likely to influence the process and outcomes.

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

BACKGROUND

Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.

METHODS

1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use.

RESULTS

P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991-92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission.

Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure

Previous analyses have suggested that immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum is acquired after only a few infections, whereas longitudinal studies show that some children experience multiple episodes of severe disease, suggesting that immunity may not be acquired so quickly. We fitted a mathematical model for the acquisition and loss of immunity to severe disease to the age distribution of severe malaria cases stratified by symptoms from a range of transmission settings in Tanzania, combined with data from several African countries on the age distribution and overall incidence of severe malaria. We found that immunity to severe disease was acquired more gradually with exposure than previously thought. The model also suggests that physiological changes, rather than exposure, may alter the symptoms of disease with increasing age, suggesting that a later age at infection would be associated with a higher proportion of cases presenting with cerebral malaria regardless of exposure. This has consequences for the expected pattern of severe disease as transmission changes. Careful monitoring of the decline in immunity associated with reduced transmission will therefore be needed to ensure rebound epidemics of severe and fatal malaria are avoided.

No evidence of decline in malaria burden from 2006 to 2013 in a rural Province of Gabon: implications for public health policy

Background

The morbidity of malaria has steady declined in the urban regions of Gabon between 2000 and 2008, but caution should be exercised before generalizing this trend to the whole country because this finding has not been systematically confirmed in remote rural provinces.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective survey using data on malaria cases recorded in North Eastern Gabon between 2006 and 2013 at health facilities in Makokou. Malaria data were analyzed, and associations with annual variations and patient age were assessed.

Results

A global increase in clinical and confirmed malaria cases was observed over the study period. The rate of infection was significantly higher in children aged between 0 to 4 years than in children of 5 years and above, and in adults. Contrary to prior observations in urban and semi-urban areas of Gabon, malaria burden remained mostly unchanged or even increased in Makokou in the Ogooué-Ivindo province during these last 8 years.

Conclusions

The persistence of Plasmodium falciparum pockets of sustained malaria transmission in rural Gabon may be related to an inadequate coverage of key interventions, to poor treatment seeking behavior and/or to a decline efficacy of treatments. Our results highlight the need to better adapt malaria control strategies to local epidemiological contexts and to environmental constraints. Equitable delivery of health service to hard-to-reach populations constitutes a challenging issue for the health authorities of Gabon.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1456-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seasonally dependent relationships between indicators of malaria transmission and disease provided by mathematical model simulations

Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmission are traditionally obtained through resource-intensive epidemiological and entomological surveys that become difficult as transmission decreases. This work employs mathematical modeling to examine the relationships between malaria indicators allowing more easily measured data, such as routine health systems data on case incidence, to be translated into measures of transmission and other malaria indicators. Simulations of scenarios with different levels of malaria transmission, patterns of seasonality and access to treatment were run with an ensemble of models of malaria epidemiology and within-host dynamics, as part of the OpenMalaria modeling platform. For a given seasonality profile, regression analysis mapped simulation results of malaria indicators, such as annual average entomological inoculation rate, prevalence, incidence of uncomplicated and severe episodes, and mortality, to an expected range of values of any of the other indicators. Results were validated by comparing simulated relationships between indicators with previously published data on these same indicators as observed in malaria endemic areas. These results allow for direct comparisons of malaria transmission intensity estimates made using data collected with different methods on different indicators. They also address key concerns with traditional methods of quantifying transmission in areas of differing transmission intensity and sparse data. Although seasonality of transmission is often ignored in data compilations, the models suggest it can be critically important in determining the relationship between transmission and disease. Application of these models could help public health officials detect changes of disease dynamics in a population and plan and assess the impact of malaria control interventions.

While malaria is still a major public health problem in many parts of the world, control programs have greatly reduced the burden of disease in recent years and many countries are now considering the goal of elimination. Unfortunately, malaria transmission becomes more difficult to measure when it is low because traditional methods involve capturing mosquitoes; an expensive and time-consuming technique. To measure transmission in areas without adequate field data, we run simulations of a mathematical model of malaria over a range of transmission intensities and seasonal patterns to examine how different measurements of malaria (prevalence, clinical disease, and death) relate to each other, how they relate to transmission, and if the relationships are likely to vary by seasonal pattern of transmission. These simulated relationships allow us to translate easily measured data, such as clinical case incidence seen at health facilities, into estimates of transmission. This technique can help public health officials plan and assess the impact of malaria control interventions, even in areas without intensive research activities.

Environmental temperatures significantly change the impact of insecticides measured using WHOPES protocols

Background

Insecticides are critical components of malaria control programmes. In a variety of insect species, temperature plays a fundamental role in determining the outcome of insecticide exposure. However, surprisingly little is known about how temperature affects the efficacy of chemical interventions against malaria vectors.

Methods

Anopheles stephensi, with no recent history of insecticide exposure, were exposed to the organophosphate malathion or the pyrethroid permethrin at 12, 18, 22, or 26°C, using the WHO tube resistance-monitoring assay. To evaluate the effect of pre-exposure temperature on susceptibility, adult mosquitoes were kept at 18 or 26°C until just before exposure, and then moved to the opposite temperature. Twenty-four hours after exposure, mosquitoes exposed at <26°C were moved to 26°C and recovery was observed. Susceptibility was assessed in terms of survival 24 hours after exposure; data were analysed as generalized linear models using a binomial error distribution and logit link function.

Results

Lowering the exposure temperature from the laboratory standard 26°C can strongly reduce the susceptibility of female An. stephensi to the WHO resistance-discriminating concentration of malathion (χ²_df=3 = 29.0, p < 0.001). While the susceptibility of these mosquitoes to the resistance-discriminating concentration of permethrin was not as strongly temperature-dependent, recovery was observed in mosquitoes moved from 12, 18 or 22°C to 26°C 24 hours after exposure. For permethrin especially, the thermal history of the mosquito was important in determining the ultimate outcome of insecticide exposure for survival (permethrin: pre-exposure temperature: F_1,29 = 14.2, p < 0.001; exposure temp: F_1,29 = 1.1, p = 0.3; concentration: F_1,29 = 85.2, p < 0.001; exposure temp x conc: F_1,29 = 5.8, p = 0.02). The effect of acclimation temperature on malathion susceptibility depended on the exposure temperature (exposure temp: F_1,79 = 98.4, p < 0.001; pre-exposure temp: F_1,79 = 0.03, p = 0.9; pre-exp temp x exp temp F_1,79 = 6.0, p = 0.02).

Conclusions

A single population of An. stephensi could be classified by WHO criteria as susceptible or resistant to a given chemical, depending on the temperature at which the mosquitoes were exposed. Investigating the performance of vector control tools under different temperature conditions will augment the ability to better understand the epidemiological significance of insecticide resistance and select the most effective products for a given environment.

Inpatient child mortality by travel time to hospital in a rural area of Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association, if any, between child mortality and distance to the nearest hospital.

METHODS

The study was based on data from a 1-year study of the cause of illness in febrile paediatric admissions to a district hospital in north-east Tanzania. All villages in the catchment population were geolocated, and travel times were estimated from availability of local transport. Using bands of travel time to hospital, we compared admission rates, inpatient case fatality rates and child mortality rates in the catchment population using inpatient deaths as the numerator.

RESULTS

Three thousand hundred and eleven children under the age of 5 years were included of whom 4.6% died; 2307 were admitted from <3 h away of whom 3.4% died and 804 were admitted from ≥ 3 h away of whom 8.0% died. The admission rate declined from 125/1000 catchment population at <3 h away to 25/1000 at ≥ 3 h away, and the corresponding hospital deaths/catchment population were 4.3/1000 and 2.0/1000, respectively. Children admitted from more than 3 h away were more likely to be male, had a longer pre-admission duration of illness and a shorter time between admission and death. Assuming uniform mortality in the catchment population, the predicted number of deaths not benefiting from hospital admission prior to death increased by 21.4% per hour of travel time to hospital. If the same admission and death rates that were found at <3 h from the hospital applied to the whole catchment population and if hospital care conferred a 30% survival benefit compared to home care, then 10.3% of childhood deaths due to febrile illness in the catchment population would have been averted.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality impact of poor access to hospital care in areas of high paediatric mortality is likely to be substantial although uncertainty over the mortality benefit of inpatient care is the largest constraint in making an accurate estimate.

Can timely vector control interventions triggered by atypical environmental conditions prevent malaria epidemics? A case-study from Wajir County, Kenya

Background

Atypical environmental conditions with drought followed by heavy rainfall and flooding in arid areas in sub-Saharan Africa can lead to explosive epidemics of malaria, which might be prevented through timely vector-control interventions.

Objectives

Wajir County in Northeast Kenya is classified as having seasonal malaria transmission. The aim of this study was to describe in Wajir town the environmental conditions, the scope and timing of vector-control interventions and the associated resulting burden of malaria at two time periods (1996–1998 and 2005–2007).

Methods

This is a cross-sectional descriptive and ecological study using data collected for routine program monitoring and evaluation.

Results

In both time periods, there were atypical environmental conditions with drought and malnutrition followed by massive monthly rainfall resulting in flooding and animal/human Rift Valley Fever. In 1998, this was associated with a large and explosive malaria epidemic (weekly incidence rates peaking at 54/1,000 population/week) with vector-control interventions starting over six months after the massive rainfall and when the malaria epidemic was abating. In 2007, vector-control interventions started sooner within about three months after the massive rainfall and no malaria epidemic was recorded with weekly malaria incidence rates never exceeding 0.5 per 1,000 population per week.

Discussion and Conclusion

Did timely vector-control interventions in Wajir town prevent a malaria epidemic? In 2007, the neighboring county of Garissa experienced similar climatic events as Wajir, but vector-control interventions started six months after the heavy un-seasonal rainfall and large scale flooding resulted in a malaria epidemic with monthly incidence rates peaking at 40/1,000 population. In conclusion, this study suggests that atypical environmental conditions can herald a malaria outbreak in certain settings. In turn, this should alert responsible stakeholders about the need to act rapidly and preemptively with appropriate and wide-scale vector-control interventions to mitigate the risk.

Measuring changes in Plasmodium falciparum transmission: precision, accuracy and costs of metrics

As malaria declines in parts of Africa and elsewhere, and as more countries move towards elimination, it is necessary to robustly evaluate the effect of interventions and control programmes on malaria transmission. To help guide the appropriate design of trials to evaluate transmission-reducing interventions, we review 11 metrics of malaria transmission, discussing their accuracy, precision, collection methods and costs and presenting an overall critique. We also review the nonlinear scaling relationships between five metrics of malaria transmission: the entomological inoculation rate, force of infection, sporozoite rate, parasite rate and the basic reproductive number, R0. Our chapter highlights that while the entomological inoculation rate is widely considered the gold standard metric of malaria transmission and may be necessary for measuring changes in transmission in highly endemic areas, it has limited precision and accuracy and more standardised methods for its collection are required. In areas of low transmission, parasite rate, seroconversion rates and molecular metrics including MOI and mFOI may be most appropriate. When assessing a specific intervention, the most relevant effects will be detected by examining the metrics most directly affected by that intervention. Future work should aim to better quantify the precision and accuracy of malaria metrics and to improve methods for their collection.

Malaria vaccines: past, present and future

The currently available malaria control tools have allowed malaria elimination in many regions but there remain many regions where malaria control has made little progress. A safe and protective malaria vaccine would be a huge asset for malaria control. Despite the many challenges, efforts continue to design and evaluate malaria vaccine candidates. These candidates target different stages in the life cycle of Plasmodia. The most advanced vaccine candidates target the pre-erythrocytic stages in the life cycle of the parasite and include RTS,S/AS01, which has progressed through clinical development to the stage that it may be licensed in 2015. Attenuated whole-parasite vaccine candidates are highly protective, but there are challenges to manufacture and to administration. Cellular immunity is targeted by the prime-boost approach. Priming vectors trigger only modest responses but these are focused on the recombinant antigen. Boosting vectors trigger strong but broad non-specific responses. The heterologous sequence produces strong immunological responses to the recombinant antigen. Candidates that target the blood stages of the parasite have to result in an immune response that is more effective than the response to an infection to abort or control the infection of merozoites and hence disease. Finally, the sexual stages of the parasite offer another target for vaccine development, which would prevent the transmission of malaria. Today it seems unlikely that any candidate targeting a single antigen will provide complete protection against an organism of the complexity of Plasmodium. A systematic search for vaccine targets and combinations of antigens may be a more promising approach.

Hospitalizations and costs incurred at the facility level after scale-up of malaria control: pre-post comparisons from two hospitals in Zambia

There is little evidence on the impact of malaria control on the health system, particularly at the facility level. Using retrospective, longitudinal facility-level and patient record data from two hospitals in Zambia, we report a pre-post comparison of hospital admissions and outpatient visits for malaria and estimated costs incurred for malaria admissions before and after malaria control scale-up. The results show a substantial reduction in inpatient admissions and outpatient visits for malaria at both hospitals after the scale-up, and malaria cases accounted for a smaller proportion of total hospital visits over time. Hospital spending on malaria admissions also decreased. In one hospital, malaria accounted for 11% of total hospital spending before large-scale malaria control compared with < 1% after malaria control. The findings demonstrate that facility-level resources are freed up as malaria is controlled, potentially making these resources available for other diseases and conditions.

The efficacy of long-lasting nets with declining physical integrity may be compromised in areas with high levels of pyrethroid resistance

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticide-treated mosquito nets (LLINs) are a primary malaria prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa. However, emergence of insecticide resistance threatens the effectiveness of LLINs.

METHODS

Cross-sectional surveys of LLINs were conducted in houses of seven and four villages in Gem and Bungoma Districts in western Kenya, respectively. Condition (number and area of holes in the nets), number and species of mosquitoes resting inside them, and insecticidal activity of nets were quantified. Mosquitoes collected inside nets were allowed to lay eggs and progeny tested for susceptibility to deltamethrin and permethrin, pyrethoids commonly deployed in LLINs in western Kenya.

RESULTS

In Gem, 83.3% of nets were less than three years old and 32.4% had at least one hole of any size; while in Bungoma, 92% were less than three years old and 48% had at least one hole. No anopheline and five Culex spp. mosquitoes were found resting inside nets in Gem regardless of the number and size of holes, while 552 Anopheles gambiae s.l., five Anopheles funestus s.l. and 137 Culex spp. were in nets in Bungoma. The number of mosquitoes resting inside nets increased with hole areas >50 cm in Bungoma. In WHO resistance assays, f1 offspring of samples collected in nets in Bungoma were 94 and 65% resistant to deltamethrin and permethrin, respectively. Nets from Bungoma retained strong activity against a susceptible laboratory strain, but not against f1 offspring of field-collected An. gambiae s.s. All An. gambiae s.s. samples collected in nets were homozygous for the kdr genotype L1014S.

CONCLUSIONS

In areas with pyrethroid resistant vectors, LLINs with modest hole areas permit mosquito entry and feeding, providing little protection against the vectors. LLIN formulations develop large holes within three years of use, diminishing their presupposed lifetime effectiveness.

Marked decline in malaria prevalence among pregnant women and their offspring from 1996 to 2010 on the south Kenyan Coast

Expanded malaria control in Kenya since the early 2000s has resulted in marked reduction in hospital admissions for malaria; however, no studies have reported changes in malaria infection rates in the same population over this period. Randomly selected archived blood samples from four cohorts of pregnant women and their children from 1996 to 2010 in Kwale District, Coast Province, Kenya, were examined for Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. malariae, P. ovale, and Plasmodium vivax by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and microscopy. Maternal delivery Pf prevalence by PCR declined from 40% in 2000-2005 to 1% in 2009-2010, concordant with increased bed net and malaria chemoprophylaxis use. Individual risk of Pf infection in children from birth to 3 years in serial longitudinal cohort studies declined from almost 100% in 1996-1999 to 15% in 2006-2010. Declines in P. malariae and P. ovale infections rates were also observed. These results show a profound reduction in malaria transmission in coastal Kenya.

Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa

Temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission. Recent work has shown that mosquito and parasite biology are influenced not only by average temperature, but also by the extent of the daily temperature variation. Here we examine how parasite development within the mosquito (Extrinsic Incubation Period) is expected to vary over time and space depending on the diurnal temperature range and baseline mean temperature in Kenya and across Africa. Our results show that under cool conditions, the typical approach of using mean monthly temperatures alone to characterize the transmission environment will underestimate parasite development. In contrast, under warmer conditions, the use of mean temperatures will overestimate development. Qualitatively similar patterns hold using both outdoor and indoor temperatures. These findings have important implications for defining malaria risk. Furthermore, understanding the influence of daily temperature dynamics could provide new insights into ectotherm ecology both now and in response to future climate change.

Childhood malaria admission rates to four hospitals in Malawi between 2000 and 2010

INTRODUCTION

The last few years have witnessed rapid scaling-up of key malaria interventions in several African countries following increases in development assistance. However, there is only limited country-specific information on the health impact of expanded coverage of these interventions.

METHODS

Paediatric admission data were assembled from 4 hospitals in Malawi reflecting different malaria ecologies. Trends in monthly clinical malaria admissions between January 2000 and December 2010 were analysed using time-series models controlling for covariates related to climate and service use to establish whether changes in admissions can be related to expanded coverage of interventions aimed at reducing malaria infection.

RESULTS

In 3 of 4 sites there was an increase in clinical malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean clinical malaria admission rates at two hospitals (trend P<0.05). At these hospitals clinical malaria admissions had increased from 2000 by 41% to 100%. Comparison of changes in malaria risk and ITN coverage appear to correspond to a lack of disease declines over the period. Changes in intervention coverage within hospital catchments showed minimal increases in ITN coverage from <6% across all sites in 2000 to maximum of 33% at one hospital site by 2010. Additionally, malaria transmission intensity remained unchanged between 2000-2010 across all sites.

DISCUSSION

Despite modest increases in coverage of measures to reduce infection there has been minimal changes in paediatric clinical malaria cases in four hospitals in Malawi. Studies across Africa are increasingly showing a mixed set of impact results and it is important to assemble more data from more sites to understand the wider implications of malaria funding investment. We also caution that impact surveillance should continue in areas where intervention coverage is increasing with time, for example Malawi, as decline may become evident within a period when coverage reaches optimal levels.

Prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk Ghanaian newborns: a cross-sectional study

Background

Congenital malaria is defined as malaria parasitaemia in the first week of life. The reported prevalence of congenital malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is variable (0 - 46%). Even though the clinical significance of congenital malaria parasitaemia is uncertain, anti-malarial drugs are empirically prescribed for sick newborns by frontline health care workers. Data on prevalence of congenital malaria in high-risk newborns will inform appropriate drug use and timely referral of sick newborns.

Methods

Blood samples of untreated newborns less than 1 week of age at the time of referral to Korle Bu Teaching hospital in Accra, Ghana during the peak malaria seasons (April to July) of 2008 and 2010 were examined for malaria parasites by, i) Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood smears for parasite count and species identification, ii) histidine-rich protein- and lactic dehydrogenase-based rapid diagnosis tests, or iii) polymerase chain reaction amplification of the merozoite surface protein 2 gene, for identification of sub-microscopic parasitaemia. Other investigations were also done as clinically indicated.

Results

In 2008, nine cases of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia were diagnosed by microscopy in 405 (2.2%) newborns. All the nine newborns had low parasite densities (≤50 per microlitre). In 2010, there was no case of parasitaemia by either microscopy or rapid diagnosis tests in 522 newborns; however, 56/467 (12%) cases of P. falciparum were detected by polymerase chain reaction.

Conclusion

Congenital malaria is an uncommon cause of clinical illness in high-risk untreated newborns referred to a tertiary hospital in the first week of life. Empirical anti-malarial drug treatment for sick newborns without laboratory confirmation of parasitaemia is imprudent. Early referral of sick newborns to hospitals with resources and skills for appropriate care is recommended.

Shifts in malaria vector species composition and transmission dynamics along the Kenyan coast over the past 20 years

BACKGROUND

Over the past 20 years, numerous studies have investigated the ecology and behaviour of malaria vectors and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission on the coast of Kenya. Substantial progress has been made to control vector populations and reduce high malaria prevalence and severe disease. The goal of this paper was to examine trends over the past 20 years in Anopheles species composition, density, blood-feeding behaviour, and P. falciparum sporozoite transmission along the coast of Kenya.

METHODS

Using data collected from 1990 to 2010, vector density, species composition, blood-feeding patterns, and malaria transmission intensity was examined along the Kenyan coast. Mosquitoes were identified to species, based on morphological characteristics and DNA extracted from Anopheles gambiae for amplification. Using negative binomial generalized estimating equations, mosquito abundance over the period were modelled while adjusting for season. A multiple logistic regression model was used to analyse the sporozoite rates.

RESULTS

Results show that in some areas along the Kenyan coast, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles merus have replaced An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles funestus as the major mosquito species. Further, there has been a shift from human to animal feeding for both An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) (99% to 16%) and An. funestus (100% to 3%), and P. falciparum sporozoite rates have significantly declined over the last 20 years, with the lowest sporozoite rates being observed in 2007 (0.19%) and 2008 (0.34%). There has been, on average, a significant reduction in the abundance of An. gambiae s.l. over the years (IRR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.98), with the density standing at low levels of an average 0.006 mosquitoes/house in the year 2010.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in the densities of the major malaria vectors and a shift from human to animal feeding have contributed to the decreased burden of malaria along the Kenyan coast. Vector species composition remains heterogeneous but in many areas An. arabiensis has replaced An. gambiae as the major malaria vector. This has important implications for malaria epidemiology and control given that this vector predominately rests and feeds on humans outdoors. Strategies for vector control need to continue focusing on tools for protecting residents inside houses but additionally employ outdoor control tools because these are essential for further reducing the levels of malaria transmission.

Increase in malaria prevalence and age of at risk population in different areas of Gabon

BACKGROUND

Following the deployment of new recommendations for malaria control according to the World Health Organization, an estimation of the real burden of the disease is needed to better identify populations at risk and to adapt control strategies. The aim of the present study was to estimate the clinical burden of malaria among febrile children aged less than 11 years, before and after six-year of deployment of malaria control strategies in different areas of Gabon.

METHODS

Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in health care facilities at four locations: two urban areas (Libreville and Port-Gentil), one semi-urban area (Melen) and one rural area (Oyem), between 2005 and 2011. Febrile paediatric patients, aged less than 11 years old were screened for malaria using microscopy. Body temperature, history of fever, age, sex, and location were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 16,831 febrile children were enrolled; 78.5% (n=13,212) were less than five years old. The rate of Plasmodium falciparum-infection was the lowest in Port-gentil (below 10%) and the highest at Oyem (above 35%). Between 2005 and 2008, malaria prevalence dropped significantly from 31.2% to 18.3%, followed by an increase in 2011 in Libreville (24.1%), Port-Gentil (6.5%) and Oyem (44.2%) (p<0.01). Median age among the infected patients increased throughout the study period reaching 84 (60-108) months in Libreville in 2011 (p<0.01). From 2008, at all sites, children older than five years were more frequently infected; the risk of being infected significantly increased with time, ranging from 0.37 to 1.50 in 2005 and from 2.03 to 5.10 in 2011 in this group (p<0.01). The risk of being P. falciparum-infected in children aged less than five years old significantly decreased from 2008 to 2011 (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows an increased risk of malaria infection in different areas of Gabon with over-five year-old children tending to become the most at-risk population, suggesting a changing epidemiology. Moreover, the heterogeneity of the malaria burden in the country highlights the importance of maintaining various malaria control strategies and redefining their implementation.

Management of severe malaria: results from recent trials

Globally, malaria remains a substantial public health burden with an estimated 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria each year--leading to 780,000 deaths directly attributable to the disease. Whilst the outcome from severe malaria in Africa children remains poor, recent developments in the management of malaria have come from two key sources--the introduction of new, safe and rapidly-effective anti-malarials and high quality evidence from two of the largest clinical trials ever conducted in African children with severe malaria. As a result, the time-honoured anti-malarial treatment for severe malaria, quinine, will now be replaced by artesunate, a water-soluble artemisinin derivative. Supportive care, specifically the management of shock, has been informed by a large late phase clinical trial which concluded that bolus resuscitation is harmful and therefore should be avoided in children with severe malaria, including the high risk group with severe metabolic acidosis and advanced shock.

Analyzing the equity of public primary care provision in Kenya: variation in facility characteristics by local poverty level

Introduction

Equitable access to health care is a key health systems goal, and is a particular concern in low-income countries. In Kenya, public facilities are an important resource for the poor, but little is known on the equity of service provision. This paper assesses whether poorer areas have poorer health services by investigating associations between public facility characteristics and the poverty level of the area in which the facility is located.

Methods

Data on facility characteristics were collected from a nationally representative sample of public health centers and dispensaries across all 8 provinces in Kenya. A two-stage cluster randomized sampling process was used to select facilities. Univariate associations between facility characteristics and socioeconomic status (SES) of the area in which the facility was located were assessed using chi-squared tests, equity ratios and concentration indices. Indirectly standardized concentration indices were used to assess the influence of SES on facility inputs and service availability while controlling for facility type, province, and remoteness.

Results

For most indicators, we found no indication of variation by SES. The clear exceptions were electricity and laboratory services which showed evidence of pro-rich inequalities, with equity ratios of 3.16 and 3.43, concentration indices of 0.09 (p<0.01) and 0.05 (p=0.01), and indirectly standardized concentration ratios of 0.07 (p<0.01) and 0.05 (p=0.01). There were also some indications of pro-rich inequalities for availability of drugs and qualified staff. The lack of evidence of inequality for other indicators does not imply that availability of inputs and services was invariably high; for example, while availability was close to 90% for water supply and family planning services, under half of facilities offered delivery services or outreach.

Conclusions

The paper shows how local area poverty data can be combined with national health facility surveys, providing a tool for policy makers to assess the equity of input and service availability. There was little evidence of inequalities for most inputs and services, with the clear exceptions of electricity and laboratory services. However, efforts are required to improve the availability of key inputs and services across public facilities in all areas, regardless of SES.

Lipoic acid metabolism of Plasmodium--a suitable drug target

α-Lipoic acid (6,8-thioctic acid; LA) is a vital co-factor of α-ketoacid dehydrogenase complexes and the glycine cleavage system. In recent years it was shown that biosynthesis and salvage of LA in Plasmodium are necessary for the parasites to complete their complex life cycle. LA salvage requires two lipoic acid protein ligases (LplA1 and LplA2). LplA1 is confined to the mitochondrion while LplA2 is located in both the mitochondrion and the apicoplast. LplA1 exclusively uses salvaged LA and lipoylates α-ketoglutarate dehydrogenase, branched chain α-ketoacid dehydrogenase and the H-protein of the glycine cleavage system. LplA2 cannot compensate for the loss of LplA1 function during blood stage development suggesting a specific function for LplA2 that has yet to be elucidated. LA salvage is essential for the intra-erythrocytic and liver stage development of Plasmodium and thus offers great potential for future drug or vaccine development. LA biosynthesis, comprising octanoyl-acyl carrier protein (ACP) : protein N-octanoyltransferase (LipB) and lipoate synthase (LipA), is exclusively found in the apicoplast of Plasmodium where it generates LA de novo from octanoyl-ACP, provided by the type II fatty acid biosynthesis (FAS II) pathway also present in the organelle. LA is the co-factor of the acetyltransferase subunit of the apicoplast located pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH), which generates acetyl-CoA, feeding into FAS II. LA biosynthesis is not vital for intra-erythrocytic development of Plasmodium, but the deletion of several genes encoding components of FAS II or PDH was detrimental for liver stage development of the parasites indirectly suggesting that the same applies to LA biosynthesis. These data provide strong evidence that LA salvage and biosynthesis are vital for different stages of Plasmodium development and offer potential for drug and vaccine design against malaria.

Analysis of malaria surveillance data in Ethiopia: what can be learned from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System?

BACKGROUND

Routine malaria surveillance data is useful for assessing incidence and trends over time, and in stratification for targeting of malaria control. The reporting completeness and potential bias of such data needs assessment.

METHODS

Data on 17 malaria indicators were extracted from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System database for July 2004 to June 2009 (Ethiopian calendar reporting years 1997 to 2001). Reporting units were standardized over time with 2007 census populations. The data were analysed to show reporting completeness, variation in risk by reporting unit, and incidence trends for malaria indicators.

RESULTS

Reporting completeness, estimated as product of unit-month and health facility reporting, was over 80% until 2009, when it fell to 56% during a period of reorganization in the Ministry of Health. Nationally the average estimated annual incidence of reported total malaria for the calendar years 2005 to 2008 was 23.4 per 1000 persons, and of confirmed malaria was 7.6 per 1,000, with no clear decline in out-patient cases over the time period. Reported malaria in-patient admissions and deaths (averaging 6.4 per 10,000 and 2.3 per 100,000 per year respectively) declined threefold between 2005 and 2009, as did admissions and deaths reported as malaria with severe anaemia. Only 8 of 86 reporting units had average annual estimated incidence of confirmed malaria above 20 per 1,000 persons, while 26 units were consistently below five reported cases per 1,000 persons per year.

CONCLUSION

The Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System functioned well over the time period mid 2004 to the end of 2008. The data suggest that the scale up of interventions has had considerable impact on malaria in-patient cases and mortality, as reported from health centres and hospitals. These trends must be regarded as relative (over space and time) rather than absolute. The data can be used to stratify areas for improved targeting of control efforts to steadily reduce incidence. They also provide a baseline of incidence estimates against which to gauge future progress towards elimination. Inclusion of climate information over this time period and extension of the dataset to more years is needed to clarify the impact of control measures compared to natural cycles on malaria.