Estimating the impact of expanded access to antiretroviral therapy on maternal, paternal and double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2020

"I am adhering to HIV treatment so that I can live to support her": A qualitative study of upward intergenerational support in South Africa

Background

Intergenerational family care, which was upended by the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), may return to a pre-HIV era arrangement as access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands and treated adults can once again provide support for older household members. Empirical research has demonstrated positive 'spillover effects' of ART uptake from treated adults to younger generations, yet much less is known about the nature and breadth of such effects to older generations. This study explores the role and lived experiences among adults who take up ART and those of an older generation with whom they live.

Methods

We conducted a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews (n = 46) embedded in the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural South Africa, between July and September 2022. We purposefully sampled two respondent categories: (i) young or middle-aged adults on ART (aged 18-59 years old); and (ii) older adults (aged ≥60 years old) who were affiliated with a young or middle-aged adult on ART. We used thematic content analysis to extract, code, and categorise relevant text by types of upward spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults. Quantitative data was extracted from the existing Agincourt HDSS database and matched to qualitative interview data based on Clinic link unique identifiers of study participants.

Results

Mean age was 41 years among young or middle-aged adults (n = 29) and 72 years among older adults (n = 17). Among younger adults, time on ART ranged from five months to more than 21 years. Both young or middle-aged adults on ART and older adults reported positive spillover effects for older adults across five main tiers: caregiving, financial support, physical and mental health, living arrangements and household relationships, and stigma and reputation. Spillover challenges included financial costs and caregiving responsibilities following ART initiation of young or middle-aged adults, although these additional caregiving responsibilities were generally not perceived as particularly burdensome.

Conclusions

ART is likely to benefit older adults in South Africa whose families are affected by HIV. This study identified a wide range of perceived spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults, including improvements to upward intergenerational support. These qualitative findings offer a guide to researchers, policymakers, and donors to capitalise on the broader societal effects of a large-scale health intervention to further support family structures and meet the needs of a growing older population.

A national household survey on HIV prevalence and clinical cascade among children aged ≤15 years in Kenya (2018)

We analyzed data from the 2018 Kenya Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey, to estimate the burden and prevalence of pediatric HIV infection, identify associated factors, and describe the clinical cascade among children aged < 15 years in Kenya. Interviewers collected information from caregivers or guardians on child's demographics, HIV testing, and treatment history. Blood specimens were collected for HIV serology and if HIV-positive, the samples were tested for viral load and antiretrovirals (ARV). For participants <18 months TNA PCR is performed. We computed weighted proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for the complex survey design. We used bivariable and multivariable logistic regression to assess factors associated with HIV prevalence. Separate survey weights were developed for interview responses and for biomarker testing to account for the survey design and non-response. HIV burden was estimated by multiplying HIV prevalence by the national population projection by age for 2018. Of 9072 survey participants (< 15 years), 87% (7865) had blood drawn with valid HIV test results. KENPHIA identified 57 HIV-positive children, translating to an HIV prevalence of 0.7%, (95% CI: 0.4%-1.0%) and an estimated 138,900 (95% CI: 84,000-193,800) of HIV among children in Kenya. Specifically, children who were orphaned had about 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to those not orphaned, adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.2 (95% CI:1.0-4.8). Additionally, children whose caregivers had no knowledge of their HIV status also had 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to whose caregivers had knowledge of their HIV status, aOR 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.4)". From the unconditional analysis; population level estimates, 78.9% of HIV-positive children had known HIV status (95% CI: 67.1%-90.2%), 73.6% (95% CI: 60.9%-86.2%) were receiving ART, and 49% (95% CI: 32.1%-66.7%) were virally suppressed. However, in the clinical cascade for HIV infected children, 92% (95% CI: 84.4%-100%) were receiving ART, and of these, 67.1% (95% CI: 45.1%-89.2%) were virally suppressed. The KENPHIA survey confirms a substantial HIV burden among children in Kenya, especially among orphans.

Understanding the association between caregiver sex and HIV infection among orphans and vulnerable children in Tanzania: learning from the USAID Kizazi Kipya project

Background

Tanzania has met only 50.1% of the 90% target for diagnosing HIV in children. The country’s pediatric case finding strategy uses global best practices of index testing, provider-initiated counselling and testing, and targeted community testing of at-risk populations to find about 50,000 children living with HIV (CLHIV) who are undiagnosed. However, context-specific strategies are necessary to find the hidden children to meet the full 90% target. This study assesses whether sex of the caregiver is associated with HIV status of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) as a valuable strategy for enhanced pediatric case findings.

Methods

Data originate from the community-based, United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded Kizazi Kipya Project, which works towards increasing OVC’s and their caregivers’ uptake of HIV/AIDS and other health and social services in Tanzania. Included in this study are 39,578 OVC ages 0–19 years who the project enrolled during January through March 2017 in 18 regions of Tanzania and who voluntarily reported their HIV status. Data analysis involved multi-level logistic regression, with OVC HIV status as the outcome of interest and caregiver’s sex as the main independent variable.

Results

Three-quarters (74.3%) of the OVC included in the study had female caregivers, and their overall HIV prevalence was 7.1%. The prevalence was significantly higher (p < 0.001) among OVC with male caregivers (7.8%) than among OVC with female caregivers (6.8%), and indeed, multivariate analysis showed that OVC with male caregivers were significantly 40% more likely to be HIV-positive than those with female caregivers (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.08–1.83). This effect was the strongest among 0–4 year-olds (OR = 4.02, 95% CI 1.61–10.03), declined to 1.72 among 5–9 year-olds (OR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.02–2.93), and lost significance for children over age 9 years. Other significant factors included OVC age and nutritional status; caregiver HIV status and marital status; household health insurance status, and family size; and rural versus urban residence.

Conclusions

OVC in Tanzania with male caregivers have a 40% higher likelihood of being HIV-positive than those with female caregivers. HIV risk assessment activities should target OVC with male caregivers, as well as OVC who have malnutrition, HIV-positive caregivers, or caregivers who do not disclose their HIV status to community volunteers. Further, younger HIV-positive OVC are more likely to live in rural areas, while older HIV-positive OVC are more likely to live in urban areas. These factors should be integrated in HIV risk assessment algorithms to enhance HIV testing yields and pediatric case-finding in the OVC population in Tanzania.

Global implementation of PrEP for HIV prevention: setting expectations for impact

INTRODUCTION

Questions remain whether HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be translated into a successful public health intervention, leading to a decrease in population-level HIV incidence. We use examples from HIV treatment and contraceptives to discuss expectations for PrEP uptake, adherence, and persistence and their combined impact on the epidemic.

DISCUSSION

Targets for PrEP uptake must be based on the local HIV epidemic and will depend on appropriate estimates of the key populations at risk for HIV. However, there is evidence that targets, once established, can successfully be met and that uptake may increase with awareness. Messaging around adherence should include that daily adherence is the goal (except for those MSM for whom event-driven dosing is a good fit), but perfect adherence should not be a barrier. Ideally, clients persist on PrEP for as long as they are at risk for HIV. While PrEP will be most effective when coverage is focused on high-risk populations, normalizing rather than stigmatizing PrEP will be highly beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

While many challenges to PrEP implementation exist, we focused on the three key steps of uptake, adherence and persistence as measurable processes that can lead to improved coverage and decreased HIV incidence.

High Proportion of Deaths Attributable to HIV Among Postpartum Women in Botswana Despite Widespread Uptake of Antiretroviral Therapy

Mortality in the postpartum period may be impacted by antiretroviral therapy (ART) received in pregnancy, and whether ART is continued in the postpartum period. HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers were enrolled within 48 h of delivery at five public hospital maternity wards throughout Botswana and followed for 24 months. Maternal deaths were reported by one of the approved contacts given by the mother at enrollment. Detailed information on the cause of death was not available. Risk factors for 24-month mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. From February 2012 to March 2013, 3000 mothers (1499 HIV infected and 1501 HIV uninfected) were enrolled, and 2985 (99.5%) were followed to 24 months or death, or until the death of their child. There were 26 total maternal deaths through 24 months postpartum [439 per 100,000 person-years (p-y)], 22 among HIV-infected women (758 per 100,000 p-y) and 4 among HIV-uninfected women (132 per 100,000 p-y). Maternal HIV-infection (aHR 5.0, 95% CI 1.6-15.2) and infant birth injury (aHR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3-11.4) were independent risk factors for maternal death. Universal ART in pregnancy became the standard-of-care after June 2012, and 978 (65%) women received ART in pregnancy; by 24 months postpartum or end of follow-up, 1148 (79%) had started ART overall. There was no significant difference in 24-month mortality among HIV-infected women who took ART in pregnancy and continued throughout the follow-up period compared with HIV-infected women who took ART or zidovudine in pregnancy and stopped postpartum (aHR 0.6, 95% CI 0.2-1.7). Despite high uptake of ART in pregnancy and postpartum, women with HIV infection in Botswana are five times more likely to die than HIV-uninfected women in the 24 months postpartum.

Questioning the use-value of social relationships: care and support of youths affected by HIV in child-headed households in Port Elizabeth, South Africa

The opinion that the extended family can fulfil its supportive role in assisting child-headed households continues to exist. How these households encounter support, what this support entails, and how they experience this support is an under-researched subject. Most research literature on this topic emphasises child-headed households' material and financial support. However, although financial support is vital, emotional support to cope with the loss of loved ones, or with loneliness and insecurity, is also much needed, as well as adult assistance in obtaining formal support, such as social welfare grants. Thus, to what extent are child-headed households capable of capitalising on existing (extended) family and community members' care and support? This article addresses this question by exploring the 'use-value' of social relationships among child-headed households in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. The coping strategies of the child-headed households are discussed and analysed, indicating the children's interpretations and valuation of social relationships and support, whether this increased their potential access to other resources, and whether this support could be considered sufficient. Despite some exceptions, we argue that support from relatives or neighbours is often ambiguous and of little use-value from the viewpoint of a child-headed household. Insights from these findings might be of interest to those involved in support programmes for these households, including the assignment of an adult mentor - which is based on the assumption that existing networks of extended family and community members will help orphaned and vulnerable children to cope.

Orphans and vulnerable children in Kenya: results from a nationally representative population-based survey

BACKGROUND

In Kenya, it is estimated that there are approximately 3.6 million children aged <18 years who have been orphaned or who are vulnerable. We examined the data from the second Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2012) to determine the number and profile of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in Kenya who were aged <18 years.

METHODS

KAIS 2012 was a nationally representative, population-based household survey. We analyzed the data for all the children from birth to age 17 years who resided in an eligible household so as to determine whether their parents were alive or had been very ill to define their OVC status.

RESULTS

We estimated that there were 2.6 million OVC in Kenya in 2012, of whom 1.8 million were orphans and 750,000 were vulnerable. Among orphans, 15% were double orphans. Over one-third of all the OVC were aged between 10 and 14 years. Households with ≥1 OVC (12% of all households) were usually in the lowest 2 wealth quintiles, and 22% of OVC households had experienced moderate or severe hunger. Receipt of OVC support services was low for medical (3.7%), psychological (4.1%), social (1.3%), and material support (6.2%); educational support was slightly more common (11.5%). Orphanhood among children aged <15 years increased from 1993 to 2003 (P < 0.01) but declined from 2003 to 2012 (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The 2.6 million OVC constitute a significant proportion of Kenya's population aged <18 years. Special attention should be paid to OVC to prevent further vulnerability and ensure their well-being and development as they transition into adulthood.

Towards universal voluntary HIV testing and counselling: a systematic review and meta-analysis of community-based approaches

BACKGROUND

Effective national and global HIV responses require a significant expansion of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) to expand access to prevention and care. Facility-based HTC, while essential, is unlikely to meet national and global targets on its own. This article systematically reviews the evidence for community-based HTC.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

PubMed was searched on 4 March 2013, clinical trial registries were searched on 3 September 2012, and Embase and the World Health Organization Global Index Medicus were searched on 10 April 2012 for studies including community-based HTC (i.e., HTC outside of health facilities). Randomised controlled trials, and observational studies were eligible if they included a community-based testing approach and reported one or more of the following outcomes: uptake, proportion receiving their first HIV test, CD4 value at diagnosis, linkage to care, HIV positivity rate, HTC coverage, HIV incidence, or cost per person tested (outcomes are defined fully in the text). The following community-based HTC approaches were reviewed: (1) door-to-door testing (systematically offering HTC to homes in a catchment area), (2) mobile testing for the general population (offering HTC via a mobile HTC service), (3) index testing (offering HTC to household members of people with HIV and persons who may have been exposed to HIV), (4) mobile testing for men who have sex with men, (5) mobile testing for people who inject drugs, (6) mobile testing for female sex workers, (7) mobile testing for adolescents, (8) self-testing, (9) workplace HTC, (10) church-based HTC, and (11) school-based HTC. The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and the Cochrane Collaboration's "risk of bias" tool were used to assess the risk of bias in studies with a comparator arm included in pooled estimates. 117 studies, including 864,651 participants completing HTC, met the inclusion criteria. The percentage of people offered community-based HTC who accepted HTC was as follows: index testing, 88% of 12,052 participants; self-testing, 87% of 1,839 participants; mobile testing, 87% of 79,475 participants; door-to-door testing, 80% of 555,267 participants; workplace testing, 67% of 62,406 participants; and school-based testing, 62% of 2,593 participants. Mobile HTC uptake among key populations (men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, female sex workers, and adolescents) ranged from 9% to 100% (among 41,110 participants across studies), with heterogeneity related to how testing was offered. Community-based approaches increased HTC uptake (relative risk [RR] 10.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.27-18.08), the proportion of first-time testers (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.42), and the proportion of participants with CD4 counts above 350 cells/µl (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16-1.74), and obtained a lower positivity rate (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.96), relative to facility-based approaches. 80% (95% CI 75%-85%) of 5,832 community-based HTC participants obtained a CD4 measurement following HIV diagnosis, and 73% (95% CI 61%-85%) of 527 community-based HTC participants initiated antiretroviral therapy following a CD4 measurement indicating eligibility. The data on linking participants without HIV to prevention services were limited. In low- and middle-income countries, the cost per person tested ranged from US$2-US$126. At the population level, community-based HTC increased HTC coverage (RR 7.07, 95% CI 3.52-14.22) and reduced HIV incidence (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73-1.02), although the incidence reduction lacked statistical significance. No studies reported any harm arising as a result of having been tested.

CONCLUSIONS

Community-based HTC achieved high rates of HTC uptake, reached people with high CD4 counts, and linked people to care. It also obtained a lower HIV positivity rate relative to facility-based approaches. Further research is needed to further improve acceptability of community-based HTC for key populations. HIV programmes should offer community-based HTC linked to prevention and care, in addition to facility-based HTC, to support increased access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42012002554 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Incidence of orphanhood before and after implementation of a HIV care programme in Rakai, Uganda: Alpha Network HIV Supplement

OBJECTIVE

To compare the incidence of orphanhood among children <15 years of age before and after implementing HIV care in Rakai, Uganda.

METHODS

Annual household censuses and surveys were conducted on January 2001 to September 2009 in a community cohort, where HIV care including antiretroviral therapy (ART) started in June 2004. Data included parental survival of children aged 0-14 years and HIV status from consenting adults aged 15-49 years. The incidence of orphanhood was estimated as the number of new orphans divided by person-years, determined during three time periods: Pre-HIV care roll-out (January 2001-June 2003) 1-3 years before the advent of HIV care in Rakai programme, HIV care transition from September 2003-May 2006, and the expanded HIV care period from August 2006-September 2009. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) of orphanhood and 95% confidence intervals, and the Population attributable fraction (PAF) of incident orphanhood due to HIV+ parental status was estimated as pd*(RR-1)/RR.

RESULTS

A total of 20,823, 21,770 and 23,700 children aged 0-14 years were censused at the three periods, respectively. The prevalence of orphanhood significantly declined; 17.2% during Pre-HIV care roll-out, 16.0% at HIV care transition and 12.6% at expanded HIV care period (chi2 trend, P < 0.0001). The incidence of orphanhood also declined significantly with increasing HIV care from 2.10/100 person-years (py), 1.57/100 py and 1.07/100 py (chi2 trend, P < 0.0001). The largest declines were observed among children with HIV+ parent(s), 8.2/100 pyr, 5.2/100 pys and 3.4/100 pyr. PAF also declined from 35.3% in the pre-HIV care to 27.6% in the expanded HIV care periods.

CONCLUSION

After the availability of ART, there was a decline in PAF of incident orphanhood due to parental HIV+ status, and in the incidence of orphanhood especially among children with HIV-infected parents.

Predicting trends in HIV-1 sexual transmission in sub-Saharan Africa through the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition model: antiretrovirals for 5 reduction of population infectivity, incidence and prevalence at the district level

BACKGROUND

The use of antiretrovirals to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been evaluated in mathematical models as potential strategies for curtailing the epidemic. Cohort data from the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition (DREAM) Program was used to generate a realistic model for the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

Two combined stochastic models were developed: patient and epidemic models. Models were combined using virus load as a parameter of infectivity. DREAM data that assessed patient care in Mozambique and Malawi were used to generate measures of infectivity, survival, and adherence. The Markov chain prediction model was used for the analysis of disease progression in treated and untreated patients. A partnership model was used to assess the probability that an infected individual would transmit HIV.

RESULTS

Data from 26565 patients followed up from January 2002 through July 2009 were analyzed with the model; 63% of patients were female, the median age was 35 years, and the median observation time was 25 months. In the model, a 5-fold reduction in infectivity (from 1.6% to 0.3%) occurred within 3 years when triple ART was used. The annual incidence of HIV infection declined from 7% to 2% in 2 years, and the prevalence was halved, from 12% to 6%, in 11 years. Mortality in HIV-infected individuals declined by 50% in 5 years. A cost analysis demonstrated economic efficiency after 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model, based on patient data, supports the hypothesis that treatment of all infected individuals translates into a drastic reduction in incident HIV infections. A targeted implementation strategy with massive population coverage is feasible in sub-Saharan Africa.

Antiretroviral therapy in prevention of HIV and TB: update on current research efforts

There is considerable scientific evidence supporting the use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) infections. The complex nature of the HIV and TB prevention responses, resource constraints, remaining questions about cost and feasibility, and the need to use a solid evidence base to make policy decisions, and the implementation challenges to translating trial data to operational settings require a well-organised and coordinated response to research in this area. To this end, we aimed to catalogue the ongoing and planned research activities that evaluate the impact of ART plus other interventions on HIV- and/or TB-related morbidity, mortality, risk behaviour, HIV incidence and transmission. Using a limited search methodology, 50 projects were identified examining ART as prevention, representing 5 regions and 52 countries with a global distribution. There are 24 randomised controlled clinical trials with at least 12 large randomised individual or community cluster trials in resource-constrained settings that are in the planning or early implementation stages. There is considerable heterogeneity between studies in terms of methodology, interventions and geographical location. While the identified studies will undoubtedly advance our understanding of the efficacy and effectiveness of ART for prevention, some key questions may remain unanswered or only partially answered. The large number and wide variety of research projects emphasise the importance of this research issue and clearly demonstrate the potential for synergies, partnerships and coordination across funding agencies.