Computational disease modeling - fact or fiction?

Modeling cell populations metabolism and competition under maximum power constraints

Ecological interactions are fundamental at the cellular scale, addressing the possibility of a description of cellular systems that uses language and principles of ecology. In this work, we use a minimal ecological approach that encompasses growth, adaptation and survival of cell populations to model cell metabolisms and competition under energetic constraints. As a proof-of-concept, we apply this general formulation to study the dynamics of the onset of a specific blood cancer-called Multiple Myeloma. We show that a minimal model describing antagonist cell populations competing for limited resources, as regulated by microenvironmental factors and internal cellular structures, reproduces patterns of Multiple Myeloma evolution, due to the uncontrolled proliferation of cancerous plasma cells within the bone marrow. The model is characterized by a class of regime shifts to more dissipative states for selectively advantaged malignant plasma cells, reflecting a breakdown of self-regulation in the bone marrow. The transition times obtained from the simulations range from years to decades consistently with clinical observations of survival times of patients. This irreversible dynamical behavior represents a possible description of the incurable nature of myelomas based on the ecological interactions between plasma cells and the microenvironment, embedded in a larger complex system. The use of ATP equivalent energy units in defining stocks and flows is a key to constructing an ecological model which reproduces the onset of myelomas as transitions between states of a system which reflects the energetics of plasma cells. This work provides a basis to construct more complex models representing myelomas, which can be compared with model ecosystems.

scAEGAN: Unification of single-cell genomics data by adversarial learning of latent space correspondences

Recent progress in Single-Cell Genomics has produced different library protocols and techniques for molecular profiling. We formulate a unifying, data-driven, integrative, and predictive methodology for different libraries, samples, and paired-unpaired data modalities. Our design of scAEGAN includes an autoencoder (AE) network integrated with adversarial learning by a cycleGAN (cGAN) network. The AE learns a low-dimensional embedding of each condition, whereas the cGAN learns a non-linear mapping between the AE representations. We evaluate scAEGAN using simulated data and real scRNA-seq datasets, different library preparations (Fluidigm C1, CelSeq, CelSeq2, SmartSeq), and several data modalities as paired scRNA-seq and scATAC-seq. The scAEGAN outperforms Seurat3 in library integration, is more robust against data sparsity, and beats Seurat 4 in integrating paired data from the same cell. Furthermore, in predicting one data modality from another, scAEGAN outperforms Babel. We conclude that scAEGAN surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and unifies integration and prediction challenges.

Approximations of algorithmic and structural complexity validate cognitive-behavioral experimental results

Being able to objectively characterize the intrinsic complexity of behavioral patterns resulting from human or animal decisions is fundamental for deconvolving cognition and designing autonomous artificial intelligence systems. Yet complexity is difficult in practice, particularly when strings are short. By numerically approximating algorithmic (Kolmogorov) complexity (K), we establish an objective tool to characterize behavioral complexity. Next, we approximate structural (Bennett's Logical Depth) complexity (LD) to assess the amount of computation required for generating a behavioral string. We apply our toolbox to three landmark studies of animal behavior of increasing sophistication and degree of environmental influence, including studies of foraging communication by ants, flight patterns of fruit flies, and tactical deception and competition (e.g., predator-prey) strategies. We find that ants harness the environmental condition in their internal decision process, modulating their behavioral complexity accordingly. Our analysis of flight (fruit flies) invalidated the common hypothesis that animals navigating in an environment devoid of stimuli adopt a random strategy. Fruit flies exposed to a featureless environment deviated the most from Levy flight, suggesting an algorithmic bias in their attempt to devise a useful (navigation) strategy. Similarly, a logical depth analysis of rats revealed that the structural complexity of the rat always ends up matching the structural complexity of the competitor, with the rats' behavior simulating algorithmic randomness. Finally, we discuss how experiments on how humans perceive randomness suggest the existence of an algorithmic bias in our reasoning and decision processes, in line with our analysis of the animal experiments. This contrasts with the view of the mind as performing faulty computations when presented with randomized items. In summary, our formal toolbox objectively characterizes external constraints on putative models of the "internal" decision process in humans and animals.

Deconvolution of the hematopoietic stem cell microenvironment reveals a high degree of specialization and conservation

Understanding the regulation of normal and malignant human hematopoiesis requires comprehensive cell atlas of the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) regulatory microenvironment. Here, we develop a tailored bioinformatic pipeline to integrate public and proprietary single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) datasets. As a result, we robustly identify for the first time 14 intermediate cell states and 11 stages of differentiation in the endothelial and mesenchymal BM compartments, respectively. Our data provide the most comprehensive description to date of the murine HSC-regulatory microenvironment and suggest a higher level of specialization of the cellular circuits than previously anticipated. Furthermore, this deep characterization allows inferring conserved features in human, suggesting that the layers of microenvironmental regulation of hematopoiesis may also be shared between species. Our resource and methodology is a stepping-stone toward a comprehensive cell atlas of the BM microenvironment.

A robust machine learning framework to identify signatures for frailty: a nested case-control study in four aging European cohorts

Phenotype-specific omic expression patterns in people with frailty could provide invaluable insight into the underlying multi-systemic pathological processes and targets for intervention. Classical approaches to frailty have not considered the potential for different frailty phenotypes. We characterized associations between frailty (with/without disability) and sets of omic factors (genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic) plus markers measured in routine geriatric care. This study was a prevalent case control using stored biospecimens (urine, whole blood, cells, plasma, and serum) from 1522 individuals (identified as robust (R), pre-frail (P), or frail (F)] from the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging (R=178/P=184/F=109), 3 City Bordeaux (111/269/100), Aging Multidisciplinary Investigation (157/79/54) and InCHIANTI (106/98/77) cohorts. The analysis included over 35,000 omic and routine laboratory variables from robust and frail or pre-frail (with/without disability) individuals using a machine learning framework. We identified three protective biomarkers, vitamin D3 (OR: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.68-0.98]), lutein zeaxanthin (OR: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.70-0.97]), and miRNA125b-5p (OR: 0.73, [95% CI: 0.56-0.97]) and one risk biomarker, cardiac troponin T (OR: 1.25 [95% CI: 1.23-1.27]). Excluding individuals with a disability, one protective biomarker was identified, miR125b-5p (OR: 0.85, [95% CI: 0.81-0.88]). Three risks of frailty biomarkers were detected: pro-BNP (OR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.27-1.7]), cardiac troponin T (OR: 1.29 [95% CI: 1.21-1.38]), and sRAGE (OR: 1.26 [95% CI: 1.01-1.57]). Three key frailty biomarkers demonstrated a statistical association with frailty (oxidative stress, vitamin D, and cardiovascular system) with relationship patterns differing depending on the presence or absence of a disability.

Addressing Non-linear System Dynamics of Single-Strand RNA Virus-Host Interaction

Positive single-strand ribonucleic acid [(+)ssRNA] viruses can cause multiple outbreaks, for which comprehensive tailored therapeutic strategies are still missing. Virus and host cell dynamics are tightly connected, generating a complex dynamics that conveys in virion assembly to ensure virus spread in the body. Starting from the knowledge of relevant processes in (+ss)RNA virus replication, transcription, translation, virions budding and shedding, and their respective energy costs, we built up a systems thinking (ST)-based diagram of the virus-host interaction, comprehensive of stocks, flows, and processes as well-described in literature. In ST approach, stocks and flows are expressed by a proxy of the energy embedded and transmitted, respectively, whereas processes are referred to the energy required for the system functioning. In this perspective, healthiness is just a particular configuration, in which stocks relevant for the system (equivalent but not limited to proteins, RNA, DNA, and all metabolites required for the survival) are constant, and the system behavior is stationary. At time of infection, the presence of additional stocks (e.g., viral protein and RNA and all metabolites required for virion assembly and spread) confers a complex network of feedbacks leading to new configurations, which can evolve to maximize the virions stock, thus changing the system structure, output, and purpose. The dynamic trajectories will evolve to achieve a new stationary status, a phenomenon described in microbiology as integration and symbiosis when the system is resilient enough to the changes, or the system may stop functioning and die. Application of external driving forces, acting on processes, can affect the dynamic trajectories adding a further degree of complexity, which can be captured by ST approach, used to address these new configurations. Investigation of system configurations in response to external driving forces acting is developed by computational analysis based on ST diagrams, with the aim at designing novel therapeutic approaches.

An Algorithmic Information Calculus for Causal Discovery and Reprogramming Systems

We introduce and develop a method that demonstrates that the algorithmic information content of a system can be used as a steering handle in the dynamical phase space, thus affording an avenue for controlling and reprogramming systems. The method consists of applying a series of controlled interventions to a networked system while estimating how the algorithmic information content is affected. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the phase space and their generative rules of some discrete dynamical systems (cellular automata) serving as controlled case studies. Next, the model-based interventional or causal calculus is evaluated and validated using (1) a huge large set of small graphs, (2) a number of larger networks with different topologies, and finally (3) biological networks derived from a widely studied and validated genetic network (E. coli) as well as on a significant number of differentiating (Th17) and differentiated human cells from a curated biological network data.

Predictive Systems Toxicology

In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point of view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predicitive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e., equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

Guidelines for Developing Successful Short Advanced Courses in Systems Medicine and Systems Biology

Systems medicine and systems biology have inherent educational challenges. These have largely been addressed either by providing new masters programs or by redesigning undergraduate programs. In contrast, short courses can respond to a different need: they can provide condensed updates for professionals across academia, the clinic, and industry. These courses have received less attention. Here, we share our experiences in developing and providing such courses to current and future leaders in systems biology and systems medicine. We present guidelines for how to reproduce our courses, and we offer suggestions for how to select students who will nurture an interdisciplinary learning environment and thrive there.

A perspective on bridging scales and design of models using low-dimensional manifolds and data-driven model inference

Systems in nature capable of collective behaviour are nonlinear, operating across several scales. Yet our ability to account for their collective dynamics differs in physics, chemistry and biology. Here, we briefly review the similarities and differences between mathematical modelling of adaptive living systems versus physico-chemical systems. We find that physics-based chemistry modelling and computational neuroscience have a shared interest in developing techniques for model reductions aiming at the identification of a reduced subsystem or slow manifold, capturing the effective dynamics. By contrast, as relations and kinetics between biological molecules are less characterized, current quantitative analysis under the umbrella of bioinformatics focuses on signal extraction, correlation, regression and machine-learning analysis. We argue that model reduction analysis and the ensuing identification of manifolds bridges physics and biology. Furthermore, modelling living systems presents deep challenges as how to reconcile rich molecular data with inherent modelling uncertainties (formalism, variables selection and model parameters). We anticipate a new generative data-driven modelling paradigm constrained by identified governing principles extracted from low-dimensional manifold analysis. The rise of a new generation of models will ultimately connect biology to quantitative mechanistic descriptions, thereby setting the stage for investigating the character of the model language and principles driving living systems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Multiscale modelling at the physics-chemistry-biology interface'.

From Systems Understanding to Personalized Medicine: Lessons and Recommendations Based on a Multidisciplinary and Translational Analysis of COPD

Systems medicine, using and adapting methods and approaches as developed within systems biology, promises to be essential in ongoing efforts of realizing and implementing personalized medicine in clinical practice and research. Here we review and critically assess these opportunities and challenges using our work on COPD as a case study. We find that there are significant unresolved biomedical challenges in how to unravel complex multifactorial components in disease initiation and progression producing different clinical phenotypes. Yet, while such a systems understanding of COPD is necessary, there are other auxiliary challenges that need to be addressed in concert with a systems analysis of COPD. These include information and communication technology (ICT)-related issues such as data harmonization, systematic handling of knowledge, computational modeling, and importantly their translation and support of clinical practice. For example, clinical decision-support systems need a seamless integration with new models and knowledge as systems analysis of COPD continues to develop. Our experience with clinical implementation of systems medicine targeting COPD highlights the need for a change of management including design of appropriate business models and adoption of ICT providing and supporting organizational interoperability among professional teams across healthcare tiers, working around the patient. In conclusion, in our hands the scope and efforts of systems medicine need to concurrently consider these aspects of clinical implementation, which inherently drives the selection of the most relevant and urgent issues and methods that need further development in a systems analysis of disease.

Bioinformatics Mining and Modeling Methods for the Identification of Disease Mechanisms in Neurodegenerative Disorders

Since the decoding of the Human Genome, techniques from bioinformatics, statistics, and machine learning have been instrumental in uncovering patterns in increasing amounts and types of different data produced by technical profiling technologies applied to clinical samples, animal models, and cellular systems. Yet, progress on unravelling biological mechanisms, causally driving diseases, has been limited, in part due to the inherent complexity of biological systems. Whereas we have witnessed progress in the areas of cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, the area of neurodegenerative diseases has proved to be very challenging. This is in part because the aetiology of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer´s disease or Parkinson´s disease is unknown, rendering it very difficult to discern early causal events. Here we describe a panel of bioinformatics and modeling approaches that have recently been developed to identify candidate mechanisms of neurodegenerative diseases based on publicly available data and knowledge. We identify two complementary strategies-data mining techniques using genetic data as a starting point to be further enriched using other data-types, or alternatively to encode prior knowledge about disease mechanisms in a model based framework supporting reasoning and enrichment analysis. Our review illustrates the challenges entailed in integrating heterogeneous, multiscale and multimodal information in the area of neurology in general and neurodegeneration in particular. We conclude, that progress would be accelerated by increasing efforts on performing systematic collection of multiple data-types over time from each individual suffering from neurodegenerative disease. The work presented here has been driven by project AETIONOMY; a project funded in the course of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI); which is a public-private partnership of the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industry Associations (EFPIA) and the European Commission (EC).

Systems Epidemiology: What's in a Name?

Systems biology is an interdisciplinary effort to integrate molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, and organism levels of function into computational models that facilitate the identification of general principles. Systems medicine adds a disease focus. Systems epidemiology adds yet another level consisting of antecedents that might contribute to the disease process in populations. In etiologic and prevention research, systems-type thinking about multiple levels of causation will allow epidemiologists to identify contributors to disease at multiple levels as well as their interactions. In public health, systems epidemiology will contribute to the improvement of syndromic surveillance methods. We encourage the creation of computational simulation models that integrate information about disease etiology, pathogenetic data, and the expertise of investigators from different disciplines.

Signaling networks in MS: a systems-based approach to developing new pharmacological therapies

The pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) involves alterations to multiple pathways and processes, which represent a significant challenge for developing more-effective therapies. Systems biology approaches that study pathway dysregulation should offer benefits by integrating molecular networks and dynamic models with current biological knowledge for understanding disease heterogeneity and response to therapy. In MS, abnormalities have been identified in several cytokine-signaling pathways, as well as those of other immune receptors. Among the downstream molecules implicated are Jak/Stat, NF-Kb, ERK1/3, p38 or Jun/Fos. Together, these data suggest that MS is likely to be associated with abnormalities in apoptosis/cell death, microglia activation, blood-brain barrier functioning, immune responses, cytokine production, and/or oxidative stress, although which pathways contribute to the cascade of damage and can be modulated remains an open question. While current MS drugs target some of these pathways, others remain untouched. Here, we propose a pragmatic systems analysis approach that involves the large-scale extraction of processes and pathways relevant to MS. These data serve as a scaffold on which computational modeling can be performed to identify disease subgroups based on the contribution of different processes. Such an analysis, targeting these relevant MS-signaling pathways, offers the opportunity to accelerate the development of novel individual or combination therapies.

Optimal experiment design for model selection in biochemical networks

Background

Mathematical modeling is often used to formalize hypotheses on how a biochemical network operates by discriminating between competing models. Bayesian model selection offers a way to determine the amount of evidence that data provides to support one model over the other while favoring simple models. In practice, the amount of experimental data is often insufficient to make a clear distinction between competing models. Often one would like to perform a new experiment which would discriminate between competing hypotheses.

Results

We developed a novel method to perform Optimal Experiment Design to predict which experiments would most effectively allow model selection. A Bayesian approach is applied to infer model parameter distributions. These distributions are sampled and used to simulate from multivariate predictive densities. The method is based on a k-Nearest Neighbor estimate of the Jensen Shannon divergence between the multivariate predictive densities of competing models.

Conclusions

We show that the method successfully uses predictive differences to enable model selection by applying it to several test cases. Because the design criterion is based on predictive distributions, which can be computed for a wide range of model quantities, the approach is very flexible. The method reveals specific combinations of experiments which improve discriminability even in cases where data is scarce. The proposed approach can be used in conjunction with existing Bayesian methodologies where (approximate) posteriors have been determined, making use of relations that exist within the inferred posteriors.

From integrative disease modeling to predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine

With the significant advancement of high-throughput technologies and diagnostic techniques throughout the past decades, molecular underpinnings of many disorders have been identified. However, translation of patient-specific molecular mechanisms into tailored clinical applications remains a challenging task, which requires integration of multi-dimensional molecular and clinical data into patient-centric models. This task becomes even more challenging when dealing with complex diseases such as neurodegenerative disorders. Integrative disease modeling is an emerging knowledge-based paradigm in translational research that exploits the power of computational methods to collect, store, integrate, model and interpret accumulated disease information across different biological scales from molecules to phenotypes. We argue that integrative disease modeling will be an indispensable part of any P4 medicine research and development in the near future and that it supports the shift from descriptive to causal mechanistic diagnosis and treatment of complex diseases. For each 'P' in predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine, we demonstrate how integrative disease modeling can contribute to addressing the real-world issues in development of new predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory measures. With the increasing recognition that application of integrative systems modeling is the key to all activities in P4 medicine, we envision that translational bioinformatics in general and integrative modeling in particular will continue to open up new avenues of scientific research for current challenges in P4 medicine.

Text mining for systems biology

Scientific communication in biomedicine is, by and large, still text based. Text mining technologies for the automated extraction of useful biomedical information from unstructured text that can be directly used for systems biology modelling have been substantially improved over the past few years. In this review, we underline the importance of named entity recognition and relationship extraction as fundamental approaches that are relevant to systems biology. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of publicly organized scientific benchmarking challenges that reflect the current status of text-mining technology and are important in moving the entire field forward. Given further interdisciplinary development of systems biology-orientated ontologies and training corpora, we expect a steadily increasing impact of text-mining technology on systems biology in the future.

A conceptual review on systems biology in health and diseases: from biological networks to modern therapeutics

Human physiology is an ensemble of various biological processes spanning from intracellular molecular interactions to the whole body phenotypic response. Systems biology endures to decipher these multi-scale biological networks and bridge the link between genotype to phenotype. The structure and dynamic properties of these networks are responsible for controlling and deciding the phenotypic state of a cell. Several cells and various tissues coordinate together to generate an organ level response which further regulates the ultimate physiological state. The overall network embeds a hierarchical regulatory structure, which when unusually perturbed can lead to undesirable physiological state termed as disease. Here, we treat a disease diagnosis problem analogous to a fault diagnosis problem in engineering systems. Accordingly we review the application of engineering methodologies to address human diseases from systems biological perspective. The review highlights potential networks and modeling approaches used for analyzing human diseases. The application of such analysis is illustrated in the case of cancer and diabetes. We put forth a concept of cell-to-human framework comprising of five modules (data mining, networking, modeling, experimental and validation) for addressing human physiology and diseases based on a paradigm of system level analysis. The review overtly emphasizes on the importance of multi-scale biological networks and subsequent modeling and analysis for drug target identification and designing efficient therapies.

The road from systems biology to systems medicine

As research institutions prepare roadmaps for "systems medicine," we ask how this differs from applications of systems biology approaches in medicine and what we (should) have learned from about one decade of funding in systems biology. After surveying the area, we conclude that systems medicine is the logical next step and necessary extension of systems biology, and we focus on clinically relevant applications. We specifically discuss three related notions. First, more interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to face the challenges of integrating basic research and clinical practice: integration, analysis, and interpretation of clinical and nonclinical data for diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy require advanced statistical, computational, and mathematical tools. Second, strategies are required to (i) develop and maintain computational platforms for the integration of clinical and nonclinical data, (ii) further develop technologies for quantitative and time-resolved tracking of changes in gene expression, cell signaling, and metabolism in relation to environmental and lifestyle influences, and (iii) develop methodologies for mathematical and statistical analyses of integrated data sets and multilevel models. Third, interdisciplinary collaborations represent a major challenge and are difficult to implement. For an efficient and successful initiation of interdisciplinary systems medicine programs, we argue that epistemological, ontological, and sociological aspects require attention.

Simulations of symptomatic treatments for Alzheimer's disease: computational analysis of pathology and mechanisms of drug action

Introduction

A substantial number of therapeutic drugs for Alzheimer's disease (AD) have failed in late-stage trials, highlighting the translational disconnect with pathology-based animal models.

Methods

To bridge the gap between preclinical animal models and clinical outcomes, we implemented a conductance-based computational model of cortical circuitry to simulate working memory as a measure for cognitive function. The model was initially calibrated using preclinical data on receptor pharmacology of catecholamine and cholinergic neurotransmitters. The pathology of AD was subsequently implemented as synaptic and neuronal loss and a decrease in cholinergic tone. The model was further calibrated with clinical Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) results on acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and 5-HT6 antagonists to improve the model's prediction of clinical outcomes.

Results

As an independent validation, we reproduced clinical data for apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes showing that the ApoE4 genotype reduces the network performance much more in mild cognitive impairment conditions than at later stages of AD pathology. We then demonstrated the differential effect of memantine, an N-Methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) subunit selective weak inhibitor, in early and late AD pathology, and show that inhibition of the NMDA receptor NR2C/NR2D subunits located on inhibitory interneurons compensates for the greater excitatory decline observed with pathology.

Conclusions

This quantitative systems pharmacology approach is shown to be complementary to traditional animal models, with the potential to assess potential off-target effects, the consequences of pharmacologically active human metabolites, the effect of comedications, and the impact of a small number of well described genotypes.

Conclusions via unique predictions obtained despite unidentifiability--new definitions and a general method

It is often predicted that model-based data analysis will revolutionize biology, just as it has physics and engineering. A widely used tool within such analysis is hypothesis testing, which focuses on model rejections. However, the fact that a systems biology model is non-rejected is often a relatively weak statement, as such models usually are highly over-parametrized with respect to the available data, and both parameters and predictions may therefore be arbitrarily uncertain. For this reason, we formally define and analyse the concept of a core prediction. A core prediction is a uniquely identified property that must be fulfilled if the given model structure is to explain the data, even if the individual parameters are non-uniquely identified. It is shown that such a prediction is as strong a conclusion as a rejection. Furthermore, a new method for core prediction analysis is introduced, which is beneficial for the uncertainty of specific model properties, as the method only characterizes the space of acceptable parameters in the relevant directions. This avoids the curse of dimensionality associated with the generic characterizations used by previously proposed methods. Analysis on examples shows that the new method is comparable to profile likelihood with regard to practical identifiability, and thus generalizes profile likelihood to the more general problem of observability. If used, the concepts and methods presented herein make it possible to distinguish between a conclusion and a mere suggestion, which hopefully will contribute to a more justified confidence in systems biology analyses.

Systems modeling and simulation applications for critical care medicine

Critical care delivery is a complex, expensive, error prone, medical specialty and remains the focal point of major improvement efforts in healthcare delivery. Various modeling and simulation techniques offer unique opportunities to better understand the interactions between clinical physiology and care delivery. The novel insights gained from the systems perspective can then be used to develop and test new treatment strategies and make critical care delivery more efficient and effective. However, modeling and simulation applications in critical care remain underutilized. This article provides an overview of major computer-based simulation techniques as applied to critical care medicine. We provide three application examples of different simulation techniques, including a) pathophysiological model of acute lung injury, b) process modeling of critical care delivery, and c) an agent-based model to study interaction between pathophysiology and healthcare delivery. Finally, we identify certain challenges to, and opportunities for, future research in the area.

Decoding complex biological networks - tracing essential and modulatory parameters in complex and simplified models of the cell cycle

Background

One of the most well described cellular processes is the cell cycle, governing cell division. Mathematical models of this gene-protein network are therefore a good test case for assessing to what extent we can dissect the relationship between model parameters and system dynamics. Here we combine two strategies to enable an exploration of parameter space in relation to model output. A simplified, piecewise linear approximation of the original model is combined with a sensitivity analysis of the same system, to obtain and validate analytical expressions describing the dynamical role of different model parameters.

Results

We considered two different output responses to parameter perturbations. One was qualitative and described whether the system was still working, i.e. whether there were oscillations. We call parameters that correspond to such qualitative change in system response essential. The other response pattern was quantitative and measured changes in cell size, corresponding to perturbations of modulatory parameters. Analytical predictions from the simplified model concerning the impact of different parameters were compared to a sensitivity analysis of the original model, thus evaluating the predictions from the simplified model. The comparison showed that the predictions on essential and modulatory parameters were satisfactory for small perturbations, but more discrepancies were seen for larger perturbations. Furthermore, for this particular cell cycle model, we found that most parameters were either essential or modulatory. Essential parameters required large perturbations for identification, whereas modulatory parameters were more easily identified with small perturbations. Finally, we used the simplified model to make predictions on critical combinations of parameter perturbations.

Conclusions

The parameter characterizations of the simplified model are in large consistent with the original model and the simplified model can give predictions on critical combinations of parameter perturbations. We believe that the distinction between essential and modulatory perturbation responses will be of use for sensitivity analysis, and in discussions of robustness and during the model simplification process.

Workflow for generating competing hypothesis from models with parameter uncertainty

Mathematical models are increasingly used in life sciences. However, contrary to other disciplines, biological models are typically over-parametrized and loosely constrained by scarce experimental data and prior knowledge. Recent efforts on analysis of complex models have focused on isolated aspects without considering an integrated approach-ranging from model building to derivation of predictive experiments and refutation or validation of robust model behaviours. Here, we develop such an integrative workflow, a sequence of actions expanding upon current efforts with the purpose of setting the stage for a methodology facilitating an extraction of core behaviours and competing mechanistic hypothesis residing within underdetermined models. To this end, we make use of optimization search algorithms, statistical (machine-learning) classification techniques and cluster-based analysis of the state variables' dynamics and their corresponding parameter sets. We apply the workflow to a mathematical model of fat accumulation in the arterial wall (atherogenesis), a complex phenomena with limited quantitative understanding, thus leading to a model plagued with inherent uncertainty. We find that the mathematical atherogenesis model can still be understood in terms of a few key behaviours despite the large number of parameters. This result enabled us to derive distinct mechanistic predictions from the model despite the lack of confidence in the model parameters. We conclude that building integrative workflows enable investigators to embrace modelling of complex biological processes despite uncertainty in parameters.