The influence of physiological status on age prediction of Anopheles arabiensis using near infra-red spectroscopy

Rapid classification of epidemiologically relevant age categories of the malaria vector, Anopheles funestus

BACKGROUND

Accurately determining the age and survival probabilities of adult mosquitoes is crucial for understanding parasite transmission, evaluating the effectiveness of control interventions and assessing disease risk in communities. This study was aimed at demonstrating the rapid identification of epidemiologically relevant age categories of Anopheles funestus, a major Afro-tropical malaria vector, through the innovative combination of infrared spectroscopy and machine learning, instead of the cumbersome practice of dissecting mosquito ovaries to estimate age based on parity status.

METHODS

Anopheles funestus larvae were collected in rural south-eastern Tanzania and reared in an insectary. Emerging adult females were sorted by age (1-16 days old) and preserved using silica gel. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmation was conducted using DNA extracted from mosquito legs to verify the presence of An. funestus and to eliminate undesired mosquitoes. Mid-infrared spectra were obtained by scanning the heads and thoraces of the mosquitoes using an attenuated total reflection-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FT-IR) spectrometer. The spectra (N = 2084) were divided into two epidemiologically relevant age groups: 1-9 days (young, non-infectious) and 10-16 days (old, potentially infectious). The dimensionality of the spectra was reduced using principal component analysis, and then a set of machine learning and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models were trained using the spectra to predict the mosquito age categories.

RESULTS

The best-performing model, XGBoost, achieved overall accuracy of 87%, with classification accuracy of 89% for young and 84% for old An. funestus. When the most important spectral features influencing the model performance were selected to train a new model, the overall accuracy increased slightly to 89%. The MLP model, utilizing the significant spectral features, achieved higher classification accuracy of 95% and 94% for the young and old An. funestus, respectively. After dimensionality reduction, the MLP achieved 93% accuracy for both age categories.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows how machine learning can quickly classify epidemiologically relevant age groups of An. funestus based on their mid-infrared spectra. Having been previously applied to An. gambiae, An. arabiensis and An. coluzzii, this demonstration on An. funestus underscores the potential of this low-cost, reagent-free technique for widespread use on all the major Afro-tropical malaria vectors. Future research should demonstrate how such machine-derived age classifications in field-collected mosquitoes correlate with malaria in human populations.

Accurate age-grading of field-aged mosquitoes reared under ambient conditions using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy and artificial neural networks

Age-grading mosquitoes are significant because only older mosquitoes are competent to transmit pathogens to humans. However, we lack effective tools to do so, especially at the critical point where mosquitoes become a risk to humans. In this study, we demonstrated the capability of using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy and artificial neural networks to accurately age-grade field-aged low-generation (F2) female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes held under ambient conditions (error was 1.9 chronological days, in the range 0-22 days). When degree days were used for model calibration, the accuracy was further improved to 20.8 degree days (approximately equal to 1.4 chronological days), which indicates the impact of temperature fluctuation on prediction accuracy. This performance is a significant advancement over binary classification. The great accuracy of this method outperforms traditional age-grading methods and will facilitate effective epidemiological studies, risk assessment, vector intervention monitoring, and evaluation.

Deep learning and wing interferential patterns identify Anopheles species and discriminate amongst Gambiae complex species

We present a new and innovative identification method based on deep learning of the wing interferential patterns carried by mosquitoes of the Anopheles genus to classify and assign 20 Anopheles species, including 13 malaria vectors. We provide additional evidence that this approach can identify Anopheles spp. with an accuracy of up to 100% for ten out of 20 species. Although, this accuracy was moderate (> 65%) or weak (50%) for three and seven species. The accuracy of the process to discriminate cryptic or sibling species is also assessed on three species belonging to the Gambiae complex. Strikingly, An. gambiae, An. arabiensis and An. coluzzii, morphologically indistinguishable species belonging to the Gambiae complex, were distinguished with 100%, 100%, and 88% accuracy respectively. Therefore, this tool would help entomological surveys of malaria vectors and vector control implementation. In the future, we anticipate our method can be applied to other arthropod vector-borne diseases.

Using transfer learning and dimensionality reduction techniques to improve generalisability of machine-learning predictions of mosquito ages from mid-infrared spectra

BACKGROUND

Old mosquitoes are more likely to transmit malaria than young ones. Therefore, accurate prediction of mosquito population age can drastically improve the evaluation of mosquito-targeted interventions. However, standard methods for age-grading mosquitoes are laborious and costly. We have shown that Mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIRS) can be used to detect age-specific patterns in mosquito cuticles and thus can be used to train age-grading machine learning models. However, these models tend to transfer poorly across populations. Here, we investigate whether applying dimensionality reduction and transfer learning to MIRS data can improve the transferability of MIRS-based predictions for mosquito ages.

METHODS

We reared adults of the malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in two insectaries. The heads and thoraces of female mosquitoes were scanned using an attenuated total reflection-Fourier transform infrared spectrometer, which were grouped into two different age classes. The dimensionality of the spectra data was reduced using unsupervised principal component analysis or t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding, and then used to train deep learning and standard machine learning classifiers. Transfer learning was also evaluated to improve transferability of the models when predicting mosquito age classes from new populations.

RESULTS

Model accuracies for predicting the age of mosquitoes from the same population as the training samples reached 99% for deep learning and 92% for standard machine learning. However, these models did not generalise to a different population, achieving only 46% and 48% accuracy for deep learning and standard machine learning, respectively. Dimensionality reduction did not improve model generalizability but reduced computational time. Transfer learning by updating pre-trained models with 2% of mosquitoes from the alternate population improved performance to ~ 98% accuracy for predicting mosquito age classes in the alternative population.

CONCLUSION

Combining dimensionality reduction and transfer learning can reduce computational costs and improve the transferability of both deep learning and standard machine learning models for predicting the age of mosquitoes. Future studies should investigate the optimal quantities and diversity of training data necessary for transfer learning and the implications for broader generalisability to unseen datasets.

Rapid and Non-Invasive Detection of Aedes aegypti Co-Infected with Zika and Dengue Viruses Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

The transmission of dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) has been continuously increasing worldwide. An efficient arbovirus surveillance system is critical to designing early-warning systems to increase preparedness of future outbreaks in endemic countries. The Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) is a promising high throughput technique to detect arbovirus infection in Ae. aegypti with remarkable advantages such as cost and time effectiveness, reagent-free, and non-invasive nature over existing molecular tools for similar purposes, enabling timely decision making through rapid detection of potential disease. Our aim was to determine whether NIRS can differentiate Ae. aegypti females infected with either ZIKV or DENV single infection, and those coinfected with ZIKV/DENV from uninfected ones. Using 200 Ae. aegypti females reared and infected in laboratory conditions, the training model differentiated mosquitoes into the four treatments with 100% accuracy. DENV-, ZIKV-, and ZIKV/DENV-coinfected mosquitoes that were used to validate the model could be correctly classified into their actual infection group with a predictive accuracy of 100%, 84%, and 80%, respectively. When compared with mosquitoes from the uninfected group, the three infected groups were predicted as belonging to the infected group with 100%, 97%, and 100% accuracy for DENV-infected, ZIKV-infected, and the co-infected group, respectively. Preliminary lab-based results are encouraging and indicate that NIRS should be tested in field settings to evaluate its potential role to monitor natural infection in field-caught mosquitoes.

Effects of sample preservation methods and duration of storage on the performance of mid-infrared spectroscopy for predicting the age of malaria vectors

BACKGROUND

Monitoring the biological attributes of mosquitoes is critical for understanding pathogen transmission and estimating the impacts of vector control interventions on the survival of vector species. Infrared spectroscopy and machine learning techniques are increasingly being tested for this purpose and have been proven to accurately predict the age, species, blood-meal sources, and pathogen infections in Anopheles and Aedes mosquitoes. However, as these techniques are still in early-stage implementation, there are no standardized procedures for handling samples prior to the infrared scanning. This study investigated the effects of different preservation methods and storage duration on the performance of mid-infrared spectroscopy for age-grading females of the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis.

METHODS

Laboratory-reared An. arabiensis (N = 3681) were collected at 5 and 17 days post-emergence, killed with ethanol, and then preserved using silica desiccant at 5 °C, freezing at - 20 °C, or absolute ethanol at room temperature. For each preservation method, the mosquitoes were divided into three groups, stored for 1, 4, or 8 weeks, and then scanned using a mid-infrared spectrometer. Supervised machine learning classifiers were trained with the infrared spectra, and the support vector machine (SVM) emerged as the best model for predicting the mosquito ages.

RESULTS

The model trained using silica-preserved mosquitoes achieved 95% accuracy when predicting the ages of other silica-preserved mosquitoes, but declined to 72% and 66% when age-classifying mosquitoes preserved using ethanol and freezing, respectively. Prediction accuracies of models trained on samples preserved in ethanol and freezing also reduced when these models were applied to samples preserved by other methods. Similarly, models trained on 1-week stored samples had declining accuracies of 97%, 83%, and 72% when predicting the ages of mosquitoes stored for 1, 4, or 8 weeks respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

When using mid-infrared spectroscopy and supervised machine learning to age-grade mosquitoes, the highest accuracies are achieved when the training and test samples are preserved in the same way and stored for similar durations. However, when the test and training samples were handled differently, the classification accuracies declined significantly. Protocols for infrared-based entomological studies should therefore emphasize standardized sample-handling procedures and possibly additional statistical procedures such as transfer learning for greater accuracy.

Back to the Future: Quantifying Wing Wear as a Method to Measure Mosquito Age

Vector biologists have long sought the ability to accurately quantify the age of wild mosquito populations, a metric used to measure vector control efficiency. This has proven difficult due to the difficulties of working in the field and the biological complexities of wild mosquitoes. Ideal age grading techniques must overcome both challenges while also providing epidemiologically relevant age measurements. Given these requirements, the Detinova parity technique, which estimates age from the mosquito ovary and tracheole skein morphology, has been most often used for mosquito age grading despite significant limitations, including being based solely on the physiology of ovarian development. Here, we have developed a modernized version of the original mosquito aging method that evaluated wing wear, expanding it to estimate mosquito chronological age from wing scale loss. We conducted laboratory experiments using adult Anopheles gambiae held in insectary cages or mesocosms, the latter of which also featured ivermectin bloodmeal treatments to change the population age structure. Mosquitoes were age graded by parity assessments and both human- and computational-based wing evaluations. Although the Detinova technique was not able to detect differences in age population structure between treated and control mesocosms, significant differences were apparent using the wing scale technique. Analysis of wing images using averaged left- and right-wing pixel intensity scores predicted mosquito age at high accuracy (overall test accuracy: 83.4%, average training accuracy: 89.7%). This suggests that this technique could be an accurate and practical tool for mosquito age grading though further evaluation in wild mosquito populations is required.

Autofluorescent Biomolecules in Diptera: From Structure to Metabolism and Behavior

Light-based phenomena in insects have long attracted researchers’ attention. Surface color distribution patterns are commonly used for taxonomical purposes, while optically-active structures from Coleoptera cuticle or Lepidoptera wings have inspired technological applications, such as biosensors and energy accumulation devices. In Diptera, besides optically-based phenomena, biomolecules able to fluoresce can act as markers of bio-metabolic, structural and behavioral features. Resilin or chitinous compounds, with their respective blue or green-to-red autofluorescence (AF), are commonly related to biomechanical and structural properties, helpful to clarify the mechanisms underlying substrate adhesion of ectoparasites’ leg appendages, or the antennal abilities in tuning sound detection. Metarhodopsin, a red fluorescing photoproduct of rhodopsin, allows to investigate visual mechanisms, whereas NAD(P)H and flavins, commonly relatable to energy metabolism, favor the investigation of sperm vitality. Lipofuscins are AF biomarkers of aging, as well as pteridines, which, similarly to kynurenines, are also exploited in metabolic investigations. Beside the knowledge available in Drosophila melanogaster, a widely used model to study also human disorder and disease mechanisms, here we review optically-based studies in other dipteran species, including mosquitoes and fruit flies, discussing future perspectives for targeted studies with various practical applications, including pest and vector control.

Histological technique to detect the physiological age of the malaria vector mosquito Anopheles pharoensis (Diptera: Culicidae)

The risk of malaria recurrence increases due to the main vector, Anopheles pharoensis. The physiological age of the mosquito population is needed to expect malaria vector dynamics. The number of completed gonotrophic cycles is of great importance in determining the physiological age of females. A technique has been described that focuses on the number of dilatations remaining in the ovarioles after each oviposition to determine how many blood meals have been taken. At each gonotrophic cycle, the chances of infection of the vectors are repeated. The histological changes that occur immediately in the ovarioles and ovulation itself were studied. Under the influence of the contractions of the ovarian muscles, the eggs begin to move over the distal end of the ovariole into the inner oviduct. The terminal pedicle is markedly dilated near the diameter of the eggs. After the expulsion of the mature eggs, ovariole dilations were found at the point of their development in the terminal pedicle due to the accumulation of nurse cell remnants and follicular epithelium. The results were used to develop epidemiological localization and to evaluate the effectiveness of antimalaria interventions. The ovarian inspection often provides a technique to distinguish nulliparous from parous female anophelines. In addition, this study can provide basic entomological knowledge on the physiological age of mosquitoes by considering the histological changes in the ovaries, which allow the evaluation of vector management strategies in the field.

An autoencoder and artificial neural network-based method to estimate parity status of wild mosquitoes from near-infrared spectra

After mating, female mosquitoes need animal blood to develop their eggs. In the process of acquiring blood, they may acquire pathogens, which may cause different diseases in humans such as malaria, zika, dengue, and chikungunya. Therefore, knowing the parity status of mosquitoes is useful in control and evaluation of infectious diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, where parous mosquitoes are assumed to be potentially infectious. Ovary dissections, which are currently used to determine the parity status of mosquitoes, are very tedious and limited to few experts. An alternative to ovary dissections is near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), which can estimate the age in days and the infectious state of laboratory and semi-field reared mosquitoes with accuracies between 80 and 99%. No study has tested the accuracy of NIRS for estimating the parity status of wild mosquitoes. In this study, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) models on NIR spectra to estimate the parity status of wild mosquitoes. We use four different datasets: An. arabiensis collected from Minepa, Tanzania (Minepa-ARA); An. gambiae s.s collected from Muleba, Tanzania (Muleba-GA); An. gambiae s.s collected from Burkina Faso (Burkina-GA); and An.gambiae s.s from Muleba and Burkina Faso combined (Muleba-Burkina-GA). We train ANN models on datasets with spectra preprocessed according to previous protocols. We then use autoencoders to reduce the spectra feature dimensions from 1851 to 10 and re-train the ANN models. Before the autoencoder was applied, ANN models estimated parity status of mosquitoes in Minepa-ARA, Muleba-GA, Burkina-GA and Muleba-Burkina-GA with out-of-sample accuracies of 81.9±2.8 (N = 274), 68.7±4.8 (N = 43), 80.3±2.0 (N = 48), and 75.7±2.5 (N = 91), respectively. With the autoencoder, ANN models tested on out-of-sample data achieved 97.1±2.2% (N = 274), 89.8 ± 1.7% (N = 43), 93.3±1.2% (N = 48), and 92.7±1.8% (N = 91) accuracies for Minepa-ARA, Muleba-GA, Burkina-GA, and Muleba-Burkina-GA, respectively. These results show that a combination of an autoencoder and an ANN trained on NIR spectra to estimate the parity status of wild mosquitoes yields models that can be used as an alternative tool to estimate parity status of wild mosquitoes, especially since NIRS is a high-throughput, reagent-free, and simple-to-use technique compared to ovary dissections.

Mosquito Age Grading and Vector-Control Programmes

An ability to characterize the age of mosquito populations could provide cost-effective and compelling entomological evidence for the potential epidemiological impacts of vector control. The average age of a mosquito population is the most important determinant of vectorial capacity and the likelihood of disease transmission. Yet, despite decades of research, defining the age of a wild-caught mosquito remains a challenging, impractical, and unreliable process. Emerging chemometric and existing transcriptional approaches may overcome many of the limitations of current morphological techniques, but their utility in terms of field-based monitoring programmes remains largely untested. Herein, we review the potential advantages and disadvantages of new and existing age-grading tools in an operational context.

Detection of malaria parasites in dried human blood spots using mid-infrared spectroscopy and logistic regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological surveys of malaria currently rely on microscopy, polymerase chain reaction assays (PCR) or rapid diagnostic test kits for Plasmodium infections (RDTs). This study investigated whether mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy coupled with supervised machine learning could constitute an alternative method for rapid malaria screening, directly from dried human blood spots.

METHODS

Filter papers containing dried blood spots (DBS) were obtained from a cross-sectional malaria survey in 12 wards in southeastern Tanzania in 2018/19. The DBS were scanned using attenuated total reflection-Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectrometer to obtain high-resolution MIR spectra in the range 4000 cm-1 to 500 cm-1. The spectra were cleaned to compensate for atmospheric water vapour and CO2 interference bands and used to train different classification algorithms to distinguish between malaria-positive and malaria-negative DBS papers based on PCR test results as reference. The analysis considered 296 individuals, including 123 PCR-confirmed malaria positives and 173 negatives. Model training was done using 80% of the dataset, after which the best-fitting model was optimized by bootstrapping of 80/20 train/test-stratified splits. The trained models were evaluated by predicting Plasmodium falciparum positivity in the 20% validation set of DBS.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the best-performing model. Considering PCR as reference, the models attained overall accuracies of 92% for predicting P. falciparum infections (specificity = 91.7%; sensitivity = 92.8%) and 85% for predicting mixed infections of P. falciparum and Plasmodium ovale (specificity = 85%, sensitivity = 85%) in the field-collected specimen.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with supervised machine learning (MIR-ML) could be used to screen for malaria parasites in human DBS. The approach could have potential for rapid and high-throughput screening of Plasmodium in both non-clinical settings (e.g., field surveys) and clinical settings (diagnosis to aid case management). However, before the approach can be used, we need additional field validation in other study sites with different parasite populations, and in-depth evaluation of the biological basis of the MIR signals. Improving the classification algorithms, and model training on larger datasets could also improve specificity and sensitivity. The MIR-ML spectroscopy system is physically robust, low-cost, and requires minimum maintenance.

Prediction of mosquito species and population age structure using mid-infrared spectroscopy and supervised machine learning

Despite the global efforts made in the fight against malaria, the disease is resurging. One of the main causes is the resistance that Anopheles mosquitoes, vectors of the disease, have developed to insecticides. Anopheles must survive for at least 10 days to possibly transmit malaria. Therefore, to evaluate and improve malaria vector control interventions, it is imperative to monitor and accurately estimate the age distribution of mosquito populations as well as their population sizes. Here, we demonstrate a machine-learning based approach that uses mid-infrared spectra of mosquitoes to characterise simultaneously both age and species identity of females of the African malaria vector species Anopheles gambiae and An. arabiensis, using laboratory colonies. Mid-infrared spectroscopy-based prediction of mosquito age structures was statistically indistinguishable from true modelled distributions. The accuracy of classifying mosquitoes by species was 82.6%. The method has a negligible cost per mosquito, does not require highly trained personnel, is rapid, and so can be easily applied in both laboratory and field settings. Our results indicate this method is a promising alternative to current mosquito species and age-grading approaches, with further improvements to accuracy and expansion for use with wild mosquito vectors possible through collection of larger mid-infrared spectroscopy data sets.

Age grading An. gambiae and An. arabiensis using near infrared spectra and artificial neural networks

Background

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is currently complementing techniques to age-grade mosquitoes. NIRS classifies lab-reared and semi-field raised mosquitoes into < or ≥ 7 days old with an average accuracy of 80%, achieved by training a regression model using partial least squares (PLS) and interpreted as a binary classifier.

Methods and findings

We explore whether using an artificial neural network (ANN) analysis instead of PLS regression improves the current accuracy of NIRS models for age-grading malaria transmitting mosquitoes. We also explore if directly training a binary classifier instead of training a regression model and interpreting it as a binary classifier improves the accuracy. A total of 786 and 870 NIR spectra collected from laboratory reared An. gambiae and An. arabiensis, respectively, were used and pre-processed according to previously published protocols. The ANN regression model scored root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.6 ± 0.2 for An. gambiae and 2.8 ± 0.2 for An. arabiensis; whereas the PLS regression model scored RMSE of 3.7 ± 0.2 for An. gambiae, and 4.5 ± 0.1 for An. arabiensis. When we interpreted regression models as binary classifiers, the accuracy of the ANN regression model was 93.7 ± 1.0% for An. gambiae, and 90.2 ± 1.7% for An. arabiensis; while PLS regression model scored the accuracy of 83.9 ± 2.3% for An. gambiae, and 80.3 ± 2.1% for An. arabiensis. We also find that a directly trained binary classifier yields higher age estimation accuracy than a regression model interpreted as a binary classifier. A directly trained ANN binary classifier scored an accuracy of 99.4 ± 1.0 for An. gambiae and 99.0 ± 0.6% for An. arabiensis; while a directly trained PLS binary classifier scored 93.6 ± 1.2% for An. gambiae and 88.7 ± 1.1% for An. arabiensis. We further tested the reproducibility of these results on different independent mosquito datasets. ANNs scored higher estimation accuracies than when the same age models are trained using PLS. Regardless of the model architecture, directly trained binary classifiers scored higher accuracies on classifying age of mosquitoes than regression models translated as binary classifiers.

Conclusion

We recommend training models to estimate age of An. arabiensis and An. gambiae using ANN model architectures (especially for datasets with at least 70 mosquitoes per age group) and direct training of binary classifier instead of training a regression model and interpreting it as a binary classifier.

Prediction of mosquito species and population age structure using mid-infrared spectroscopy and supervised machine learning

Despite the global efforts made in the fight against malaria, the disease is resurging. One of the main causes is the resistance that Anopheles mosquitoes, vectors of the disease, have developed to insecticides. Anopheles must survive for at least 10 days to possibly transmit malaria. Therefore, to evaluate and improve malaria vector control interventions, it is imperative to monitor and accurately estimate the age distribution of mosquito populations as well as their population sizes. Here, we demonstrate a machine-learning based approach that uses mid-infrared spectra of mosquitoes to characterise simultaneously both age and species identity of females of the African malaria vector species Anopheles gambiae and An. arabiensis, using laboratory colonies. Mid-infrared spectroscopy-based prediction of mosquito age structures was statistically indistinguishable from true modelled distributions. The accuracy of classifying mosquitoes by species was 82.6%. The method has a negligible cost per mosquito, does not require highly trained personnel, is rapid, and so can be easily applied in both laboratory and field settings. Our results indicate this method is a promising alternative to current mosquito species and age-grading approaches, with further improvements to accuracy and expansion for use with wild mosquito vectors possible through collection of larger mid-infrared spectroscopy data sets.

Using mid-infrared spectroscopy and supervised machine-learning to identify vertebrate blood meals in the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis

BACKGROUND

The propensity of different Anopheles mosquitoes to bite humans instead of other vertebrates influences their capacity to transmit pathogens to humans. Unfortunately, determining proportions of mosquitoes that have fed on humans, i.e. Human Blood Index (HBI), currently requires expensive and time-consuming laboratory procedures involving enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) or polymerase chain reactions (PCR). Here, mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy and supervised machine learning are used to accurately distinguish between vertebrate blood meals in guts of malaria mosquitoes, without any molecular techniques.

METHODS

Laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis females were fed on humans, chickens, goats or bovines, then held for 6 to 8 h, after which they were killed and preserved in silica. The sample size was 2000 mosquitoes (500 per host species). Five individuals of each host species were enrolled to ensure genotype variability, and 100 mosquitoes fed on each. Dried mosquito abdomens were individually scanned using attenuated total reflection-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectrometer to obtain high-resolution MIR spectra (4000 cm-1 to 400 cm-1). The spectral data were cleaned to compensate atmospheric water and CO2 interference bands using Bruker-OPUS software, then transferred to Python™ for supervised machine-learning to predict host species. Seven classification algorithms were trained using 90% of the spectra through several combinations of 75-25% data splits. The best performing model was used to predict identities of the remaining 10% validation spectra, which had not been used for model training or testing.

RESULTS

The logistic regression (LR) model achieved the highest accuracy, correctly predicting true vertebrate blood meal sources with overall accuracy of 98.4%. The model correctly identified 96% goat blood meals, 97% of bovine blood meals, 100% of chicken blood meals and 100% of human blood meals. Three percent of bovine blood meals were misclassified as goat, and 2% of goat blood meals misclassified as human.

CONCLUSION

Mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with supervised machine learning can accurately identify multiple vertebrate blood meals in malaria vectors, thus potentially enabling rapid assessment of mosquito blood-feeding histories and vectorial capacities. The technique is cost-effective, fast, simple, and requires no reagents other than desiccants. However, scaling it up will require field validation of the findings and boosting relevant technical capacity in affected countries.

Prediction of mosquito species and population age structure using mid-infrared spectroscopy and supervised machine learning

Despite the global efforts made in the fight against malaria, the disease is resurging. One of the main causes is the resistance that Anopheles mosquitoes, vectors of the disease, have developed to insecticides. Anopheles must survive for at least 10 days to possibly transmit malaria. Therefore, to evaluate and improve malaria vector control interventions, it is imperative to monitor and accurately estimate the age distribution of mosquito populations as well as their population sizes. Here, we demonstrate a machine-learning based approach that uses mid-infrared spectra of mosquitoes to characterise simultaneously both age and species identity of females of the African malaria vector species Anopheles gambiae and An. arabiensis. mid-infrared spectroscopy-based prediction of mosquito age structures was statistically indistinguishable from true modelled distributions. The accuracy of classifying mosquitoes by species was 82.6%. The method has a negligible cost per mosquito, does not require highly trained personnel, is rapid, and so can be easily applied in both laboratory and field settings. Our results indicate this method is a promising alternative to current mosquito species and age-grading approaches, with further improvements to accuracy and expansion for use with other mosquito vectors possible through collection of larger mid-infrared spectroscopy data sets.

First report on the application of near-infrared spectroscopy to predict the age of Aedes albopictus Skuse

To date, no methodology has been described for predicting the age of Aedes albopictus Skuse mosquitoes, commonly known as Asian tiger mosquitoes. In this study, we report the potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique for characterizing the age of female laboratory reared Ae. albopictus. Using leave-one-out cross-validation analysis on a training set, laboratory reared mosquitoes preserved in RNAlater for up to a month were assessed at 1, 3, 7, 9, 13, 16, 20 and 25 days post emergence. Mosquitoes (N = 322) were differentiated into two age classes (< or ≥ 7 days) with 93% accuracy, into three age classes (<7, 7-13 and >13 days old) with 76% accuracy, and on a continuous age scale to within ±3 days of their actual average age. Similarly, models predicted mosquitoes (N = 146) excluded from the training model with 94% and 71% accuracy to the two and the three age groups, respectively. We show for the first time that NIRS, with an improved spectrometer and fibre configuration, can be used to predict the age of laboratory reared female Ae. albopictus. Characterization of the age of Ae. albopictus populations is crucial for determining the efficacy of vector control interventions that target their survival.

Do NIR spectra collected from laboratory-reared mosquitoes differ from those collected from wild mosquitoes?

BACKGROUND

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a high throughput technique that measures absorbance of specific wavelengths of light by biological samples and uses this information to classify the age of lab-reared mosquitoes as younger or older than seven days with an average accuracy greater than 80%. For NIRS to estimate ages of wild mosquitoes, a sample of wild mosquitoes with known age in days would be required to train and test the model. Mark-release-recapture is the most reliable method to produce wild-caught mosquitoes of known age in days. However, it is logistically demanding, time inefficient, subject to low recapture rates, and raises ethical issues due to the release of mosquitoes. Using labels from Detinova dissection results in a mathematical model with poor accuracy. Alternatively, a model trained on spectra from laboratory-reared mosquitoes where age in days is known can be applied to estimate the age of wild mosquitoes, but this would be appropriate only if spectra collected from laboratory-reared and wild mosquitoes are similar.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed k-means (k = 2) cluster analysis on a mixture of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild Anopheles arabiensis to determine if there is any significant difference between these two groups. While controlling the numbers of mosquitoes included in the model at each age, we found two clusters with no significant difference in distribution of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild mosquitoes (p = 0.25). We repeated the analysis using hierarchical clustering, and similarly, no significant difference was observed (p = 0.13).

CONCLUSION

We find no difference between spectra collected from laboratory-reared and wild mosquitoes of the same age and species. The results strengthen and support the on-going practice of applying the model trained on spectra collected from laboratory-reared mosquitoes, especially first-generation laboratory-reared mosquitoes.

Monitoring the Age of Mosquito Populations Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Mosquito control with bednets, residual sprays or fumigation remains the most effective tool for preventing vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and Zika, though there are no widely used entomological methods for directly assessing its efficacy. Mosquito age is the most informative metric for evaluating interventions that kill adult mosquitoes but there is no simple or reliable way of measuring it in the field. Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) has been shown to be a promising, high-throughput method that can estimate the age of mosquitoes. Currently the ability of NIRS to measure mosquito age is biased, and has relatively high individual mosquito measurement error, though its capacity to rigorously monitor mosquito populations in the field has never been assessed. In this study, we use machine learning methods from the chemometric literature to generate more accurate, unbiased estimates of individual mosquito age. These unbiased estimates produce precise population-level measurements, which are relatively insensitive to further increases in NIRS accuracy when feasible numbers of mosquitoes are sampled. The utility of NIRS to directly measure the impact of pyrethroid resistance on mosquito control is illustrated, showing how the technology has potential as a highly valuable tool for directly assessing the efficacy of mosquito control interventions.

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae

BACKGROUND

Understanding the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may impact this risk. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for age-grading has been demonstrated previously on laboratory and semi-field mosquitoes, but to date has not been utilized on wild-caught mosquitoes whose age is externally validated via parity status or parasite infection stage. In this study, we developed regression and classification models using NIRS on datasets of wild An. gambiae (s.l.) reared from larvae collected from the field in Burkina Faso, and two laboratory strains. We compared the accuracy of these models for predicting the ages of wild-caught mosquitoes that had been scored for their parity status as well as for positivity for Plasmodium sporozoites.

RESULTS

Regression models utilizing variable selection increased predictive accuracy over the more common full-spectrum partial least squares (PLS) approach for cross-validation of the datasets, validation, and independent test sets. Models produced from datasets that included the greatest range of mosquito samples (i.e. different sampling locations and times) had the highest predictive accuracy on independent testing sets, though overall accuracy on these samples was low. For classification, we found that intramodel accuracy ranged between 73.5-97.0% for grouping of mosquitoes into "early" and "late" age classes, with the highest prediction accuracy found in laboratory colonized mosquitoes. However, this accuracy was decreased on test sets, with the highest classification of an independent set of wild-caught larvae reared to set ages being 69.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in NIRS data, likely from dietary, genetic, and other factors limits the accuracy of this technique with wild-caught mosquitoes. Alternative algorithms may help improve prediction accuracy, but care should be taken to either maximize variety in models or minimize confounders.

malERA: An updated research agenda for characterising the reservoir and measuring transmission in malaria elimination and eradication

This paper summarises key advances in defining the infectious reservoir for malaria and the measurement of transmission for research and programmatic use since the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) publication in 2011. Rapid and effective progress towards elimination requires an improved understanding of the sources of transmission as well as those at risk of infection. Characterising the transmission reservoir in different settings will enable the most appropriate choice, delivery, and evaluation of interventions. Since 2011, progress has been made in a number of areas. The extent of submicroscopic and asymptomatic infections is better understood, as are the biological parameters governing transmission of sexual stage parasites. Limitations of existing transmission measures have been documented, and proof-of-concept has been established for new innovative serological and molecular methods to better characterise transmission. Finally, there now exists a concerted effort towards the use of ensemble datasets across the spectrum of metrics, from passive and active sources, to develop more accurate risk maps of transmission. These can be used to better target interventions and effectively monitor progress toward elimination. The success of interventions depends not only on the level of endemicity but also on how rapidly or recently an area has undergone changes in transmission. Improved understanding of the biology of mosquito-human and human-mosquito transmission is needed particularly in low-endemic settings, where heterogeneity of infection is pronounced and local vector ecology is variable. New and improved measures of transmission need to be operationally feasible for the malaria programmes. Outputs from these research priorities should allow the development of a set of approaches (applicable to both research and control programmes) that address the unique challenges of measuring and monitoring transmission in near-elimination settings and defining the absence of transmission.

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy, a Rapid Method for Predicting the Age of Male and Female Wild-Type and Wolbachia Infected Aedes aegypti

Estimating the age distribution of mosquito populations is crucial for assessing their capacity to transmit disease and for evaluating the efficacy of available vector control programs. This study reports on the capacity of the near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to rapidly predict the ages of the principal dengue and Zika vector, Aedes aegypti. The age of wild-type males and females, and males and females infected with wMel and wMelPop strains of Wolbachia pipientis were characterized using this method. Calibrations were developed using spectra collected from their heads and thoraces using partial least squares (PLS) regression. A highly significant correlation was found between the true and predicted ages of mosquitoes. The coefficients of determination for wild-type females and males across all age groups were R2 = 0.84 and 0.78, respectively. The coefficients of determination for the age of wMel and wMelPop infected females were 0.71 and 0.80, respectively (P< 0.001 in both instances). The age of wild-type female Ae. aegypti could be identified as < or ≥ 8 days old with an accuracy of 91% (N = 501), whereas female Ae. aegypti infected with wMel and wMelPop were differentiated into the two age groups with an accuracy of 83% (N = 284) and 78% (N = 229), respectively. Our results also indicate NIRS can distinguish between young and old male wild-type, wMel and wMelPop infected Ae. aegypti with accuracies of 87% (N = 253), 83% (N = 277) and 78% (N = 234), respectively. We have demonstrated the potential of NIRS as a predictor of the age of female and male wild-type and Wolbachia infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes under laboratory conditions. After field validation, the tool has the potential to offer a cheap and rapid alternative for surveillance of dengue and Zika vector control programs.

Rapid and Non-destructive Detection and Identification of Two Strains of Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

The release of Wolbachia infected mosquitoes is likely to form a key component of disease control strategies in the near future. We investigated the potential of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to simultaneously detect and identify two strains of Wolbachia pipientis (wMelPop and wMel) in male and female laboratory-reared Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Our aim is to find faster, cheaper alternatives for monitoring those releases than the molecular diagnostic techniques that are currently in use. Our findings indicate that NIRS can differentiate females and males infected with wMelPop from uninfected wild type samples with an accuracy of 96% (N = 299) and 87.5% (N = 377), respectively. Similarly, females and males infected with wMel were differentiated from uninfected wild type samples with accuracies of 92% (N = 352) and 89% (N = 444). NIRS could differentiate wMelPop and wMel transinfected females with an accuracy of 96.6% (N = 442) and males with an accuracy of 84.5% (N = 443). This non-destructive technique is faster than the standard polymerase chain reaction diagnostic techniques. After the purchase of a NIRS spectrometer, the technique requires little sample processing and does not consume any reagents.

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a technique that measures specific frequencies of light absorbed by C-H, O-H, S-H and N-H functional groups. Mosquito samples are grouped based upon absorption differences between their chemical properties. In this study, we used NIRS to differentiate 1) Aedes aegypti infected with either of the two strains of intracellular bacterium Wolbachia (wMel and wMelPop) from wild type Ae. aegypti and 2) Aedes aegypti infected with wMel from those infected with wMelPoP. NIRS facilitated the differentiation of wMel and wMelPop from wild type samples and samples infected with either of the Wolbachia infected strains with high prediction accuracies over their lifespan. Predictive models were derived from initial calibration data sets and validated against independent cohorts. Prediction accuracies were high (82–98%) regardless of the cohort mosquitoes were sampled from. The results show that NIRS may have real potential as an alternative method for monitoring Wolbachia incidence in mosquitoes. A rapid, simple and cost-effective surveillance tool suitable for resource-poor areas and large urban release programs would be of great utility for evaluating Wolbachia-based interventions. The models developed during this study require further validation using field collections.

Using a near-infrared spectrometer to estimate the age of anopheles mosquitoes exposed to pyrethroids

We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as <7 or ≥7 d old with an overall accuracy of 79%. The age categories of Anopheles mosquitoes that were not exposed to the insecticide papers were predicted with 78% accuracy whereas the age categories of resistant, susceptible and mosquitoes exposed to control papers were predicted with 82%, 78% and 79% accuracy, respectively. The ages of 85% of the wild-collected mixed-age Anopheles were predicted by NIRS as ≤8 d for both susceptible and resistant groups. The age structure of wild-collected mosquitoes was not significantly different for the pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes (P = 0.210). Based on these findings, NIRS chronological age estimation technique for Anopheles mosquitoes may be independent of insecticide exposure and the environmental conditions to which the mosquitoes are exposed.