Comparison of AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring approaches in predicting the risk of in-hospital death among emergency hospitalized patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective observational study in Nanjing, China

Diagnosis Value of the Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Creatinine Ratio in Determining the Need for Intervention of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

INTRODUCTION

The blood urea nitrogen (BUN)-to-creatinine (Cr) ratio (BUN/Cr ratio) may be used to evaluate the need for intervention of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study aimed to explore the predictive value of the BUN/Cr ratio in the need for intervention of AUGIB.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study included patients with AUGIB in the hospital's emergency department between August 2019 and May 2023. The patients were grouped according to whether they underwent an intervention for AUGIB. Patients treated between August 2019 and May 2022 were selected as the training set and the others as the validation set.

RESULTS

A total of 466 patients (328 males, 138 females) with AUGIB were enrolled in the intervention group (n = 167) and the no-intervention group (n = 299). In the training set, multivariable logistic regression showed that the BUN/Cr ratio (odds ratio [OR]: 1.013, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.003-1.023, p = 0.009), hemoglobin (OR: 0.989, 95% CI: 0.981-0.997, p = 0.010), and a previous history of esophageal variceal bleeding (OR: 6.898, 95% CI: 3.989-11.929, p < 0.001) were independently associated with intervention for AUGIB. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of BUN/Cr ratio and the prediction model based on logistic regression to predict the need for intervention of AUGIB were 0.604 (95% CI: 0.544-0.664) and 0.759 (95% CI: 0.706-0.812) in the training set and 0.634 (95% CI: 0.529, 0.740) and 0.708 (95% CI: 0.609, 0.806) in the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The BUN/Cr ratio was associated with the need for AUGIB intervention. Combining it with other parameters might improve its diagnostic value to predict the need for intervention of AUGIB.

Development of a model for predicting acute cerebral infarction induced by non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk factors for acute cerebral infarction(ACI) in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding(NVUGIB), and construct a model for predicting ACI in NVUGIB patients.

METHODS

A model for predicting ACI induced by NVUGIB was established on the basis of a retrospective study that involved 1282 patients who were diagnosed with NVUGIB in the emergency department and Gastroenterology Department of Nanchang University Affiliated Ganzhou Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the model and CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict ACI. Delong's test was used to compare AUCs of the present score and the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

RESULTS

There were 1282 patients enrolled in the study, including 69 in the ACI group and 1213 in the non-ACI group. Multivariate analysis revealed that hypertension, diabetes, red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, mechanical ventilation, D-dimer, rate pressure product (RPP), somatostatin and mean platelet volume (MPV) were factors associated with ACI induced by NVUGIB. A model based on the eight factors was established, Logit(P)= 0.265 + 1.382 × 1 + 1.120 × 2 + 1.769 × 3 + 0.839 × 4-1.549 × 5-0.361 × 6 + 0.045 × 7 + 1.158 × 8(or 1.069 ×9) (X1, hypertension=1; X2, diabetes=1; X3, RBC transfusion=1; X4, mechanical ventilation=1; X5, somatostatin=1; X6, MPV(fL); X7, D-dimer(ng/l); X8, low RPP= 1; X9, high RPP = 2). The area under ROC curve of the model was 0.873, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.768 and 0.887, respectively. The area under ROC curve of CHA2DS2-VASc score was 0.792, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.728 and 0.716, respectively. Delong's test showed the area under ROC curve of the present study was significantly larger than that of CHA2DS2-VASc score.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension, diabetes, RBC transfusion, mechanical ventilation, D-dimer, RPP, somatostatin and MPV were factors associated with ACI induced by NVUGIB. A model constructed based on these factors showed excellent prediction of ACI, and was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc score. However, this needs to be further validated by multi-center study with a larger sample size.

Age, blood tests and comorbidities and AIMS65 risk scores outperform Glasgow-Blatchford and pre-endoscopic Rockall score in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.

AIM

To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes: In-hospital mortality, intervention (endoscopic or surgical) and length of admission (≥ 7 d).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021. We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) of Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PERS), albumin, international normalized ratio, altered mental status, systolic blood pressure, age older than 65 (AIMS65) and age, blood tests and comorbidities (ABC), including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts. We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model, if addition of lactate increased the score performance.

RESULTS

All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group. AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group (AUROC = 0.772; P < 0.001), and ABC score (AUROC = 0.775; P < 0.001) in the non-variceal bleeding group. However, ABC score, at a cut-off value of 5.5, was the best predictor (AUROC = 0.770, P = 0.001) of in-hospital mortality in both populations. PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment (AUC = 0.604; P = 0.046) in the variceal population, while GBS score, (AUROC = 0.722; P = 0.024), outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention. Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score, increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality (P < 0.05) and by 12-fold if added to GBS score (P < 0.003). No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.

CONCLUSION

ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population. PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention, respectively. Lactate can be used as an additional tool to risk scores for predicting in-hospital mortality.

Strengths and limitations of risk stratification tools for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a narrative review

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in the management of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), associated morbidity and mortality remain significant. Most patients, however, will experience favorable outcomes without a need for hospital-based interventions. Risk assessment scores may assist in such early risk-stratification. These scales may optimize identification of low-risk patients, resulting in better resource utilization, including a reduced need for early endoscopy and fewer hospital admissions. The aim of this article is to provide an updated detailed review of risk assessment scores in UGIB.

AREA COVERED

A literature review identified past and currently available pre-endoscopic risk assessment scores for UGIB, with a focus on low-risk prediction. Strengths and weaknesses of the different scales are discussed as well as their impact on clinical decision-making.

EXPERT OPINION

The current evidence supports using the Glasgow Blatchford Score as it is the most accurate tool available when attempting to identify low-risk patients who can be safely managed on an outpatient basis. Currently, no risk assessment tool appears accurate enough in confidently classifying patients as high risk. Future research should utilize more standardized methodologies, while favoring interventional trial designs to better characterize the clinical impact attributable to the use of such risk stratification schemes.

A comparative study of scoring systems that accurately predict the prognosis of lower gastrointestinal bleeding

PURPOSE

Lower gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding can be fatal; therefore, several scoring systems have been developed to predict its prognosis. We compared the mortality predictions and evaluated the usefulness of various scoring systems.

METHODS

The medical records of 3794 patients who visited the emergency department with hematochezia between January 2016 and December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for 30-day mortality and prolonged hospital stay (≥ 10 days) based on the age, blood tests, and comorbidities (ABC); AIMS65; Glasgow-Blatchford; Oakland; Rockall (pre-endoscopy); and SHA2PE scores and compared the predictive accuracy of each score.

RESULTS

Data for 963 patients (median age, 69 years; males, 54.5%; median hospital stay, 6 days) with colonoscopy-confirmed lower GI bleeding were analyzed. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.5%; the most common causes of lower GI bleeding were ischemic colitis and diverticulum bleeding in 19.3% and 19.2% of the cases, respectively. The AIMS65 and ABC scores were superior in predicting 30-day mortality (p < 0.001). The SHA2PE score was the most accurate predictor of prolonged hospital stay (p < 0.001). Through multivariate regression analysis, 30-day mortality was correlated with albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, international normalized ratio > 1.5, blood urea nitrogen level ≥ 30 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 100 mmHg. A prolonged hospital stay was correlated with liver cirrhosis, hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL, albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, and SBP < 100 mmHg.

CONCLUSION

The recently developed scoring systems accurately predict lower GI bleeding prognosis, and their usefulness in clinical decision-making was confirmed.

Predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding using machine-learning

Background

Non-endoscopic risk scores, Glasgow Blatchford (GBS) and admission Rockall (Rock), are limited by poor specificity. The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the non-endoscopic triage of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB), with mortality as a primary outcome.

Methods

Four machine learning algorithms, namely, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), logistic regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN), were performed with GBS, Rock, Beylor Bleeding score (BBS), AIM65, and T-score.

Results

A total of 1,096 NVUGIB hospitalized in the Gastroenterology Department of the County Clinical Emergency Hospital of Craiova, Romania, randomly divided into training and testing groups, were included retrospectively in our study. The machine learning models were more accurate at identifying patients who met the endpoint of mortality than any of the existing risk scores. AIM65 was the most important score in the detection of whether a NVUGIB would die or not, whereas BBS had no influence on this. Also, the greater AIM65 and GBS, and the lower Rock and T-score, the higher mortality will be.

Conclusion

The best accuracy was obtained by the hyperparameter-tuned K-NN classifier (98%), giving the highest precision and recall on the training and testing datasets among all developed models, showing that machine learning can accurately predict mortality in patients with NVUGIB.

Child-Pugh Score, MELD Score and Glasgow Blatchford Score to Predict the In-Hospital Outcome of Portal Hypertensive Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: An Experience from Tertiary Healthcare System

The two most familiar scores used for prognostication of liver cirrhosis are the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), while the Glasgow-Blatchford (GB) score is used for sorting non-variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage into high- or low-risk categories. This study evaluates the validity of the CTP, MELD, and GB scoring systems in prognosticating the in-hospital outcome of bleeding portal hypertensive patients. In this study, the ROC curve and Younden index determine the efficacy of three scoring systems. The results indicate that CTP was the most efficient score as the predictor of outcome (AUC = 0.9, cut-off value > 7); followed by MELD (AUC = 0.8, cut-off value > 18) and then the GB score (AUC = 0.64, cut-off value > 14) (p < 0.05). In pair-wise comparison, the difference between CTP and MELD was insignificant (p > 0.05). Patients with a CTP score of >7 had notably higher in-hospital mortality (19.8% vs. 0.9%, p < 0.0001). Similarly, mortality with a MELD score > 18 was significant (14.8% vs. 5.9% (p < 0.0001). The GB score was not a good indicator of the outcome. Platelets, albumin, CTP, and MELD scores were the independent contributors to mortality. Thus, as liver cirrhosis prognosticators, CTP and MELD scores can also both be used as predictive scores of the in-hospital outcomes of bleeding patients due to portal hypertension. Compared to the GB score, CTP and MELD scores are fairly efficient predictors in these patients.

Comparison of Pre-Endoscopic C-WATCH Score with Established Risk Assessment Tools in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Use of risk scores for early assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is recommended by various guidelines. We compared Cologne-WATCH (C-WATCH) score with Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall score (RS), and pre-endoscopic RS (p-RS).

METHODS

Patients with UGIB between January and December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed for 30-day mortality and composite endpoints risk of complications and need for intervention using areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Subgroup analysis was conducted for patients with UGIB on admission and in-hospital UGIB.

RESULTS

A total of 252 patients were identified (67.5% men, mean age 63.8 ± 14.9 years). In-hospital UGIB occurred in 49.6%. AUROCs for 30-day mortality, risk of complications, and need for intervention (not applicable to RS) were 0.684 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.606-0.763), 0.665 (95% CI: 0.594-0.735), and 0.694 (95% CI: 0.612-0.775) for C-WATCH score, 0.724 (95% CI: 0.653-0.796) and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.687-0.815) for RS, 0.652 (95% CI: 0.57-0.735), 0.653 (95% CI: 0.579-0.727), and 0.673 (95% CI: 0.602-0.745) for p-RS and 0.652 (95% CI: 0.572-0.732), 0.663 (95% CI: 0.592-0.734), and 0.752 (95% CI: 0.683-0.821) for GBS. RS outperformed pre-endoscopic scores in predicting risk of complications, while there were no significant differences between pre-endoscopic scores except GBS outperforming p-RS in predicting need for intervention. The subgroup analysis obtained similar results. Positive predictive values for patients with estimated low risk for all three endpoints (C-WATCH score ≤1, RS ≤2, p-RS <1, and GBS ≤1) were 89%, 69%, 78%, and 92%.

CONCLUSION

C-WATCH score performed similar to the established pre-endoscopic risk scores in patients with UGIB regarding relevant patient-related endpoints with no significant differences between both the subgroups.

A Comparative Analysis of Risk Scoring Systems in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB) is a life-threatening condition that presents as hematemesis (fresh blood), coffee-ground vomiting, or melena. Multiple scoring systems are developed to predict different clinical outcomes, which are important to managing UGIB and are essential to determining low and high-risk patients. The study aimed to compare the sensitivity and specificity of risk scoring systems and their optimum cut-off values in the assessment of UGIB.

Methods

The prospective cross-sectional study included patients (N = 81) with acute UGIB. Four different proposed scores [Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), AIMS65, pre-endoscopic Rockall, and full Rockall scoring system] were used for evaluating patients with UGIB. The optimum cut-off values of these risk scores were used to predict the clinical outcomes.

Results

The AIMS65 score [Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.91, cut-off: >1, sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 76.62%] and pre-Rockall were similar (AUROC: 0.91, cut-off: >0, sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 93.51%) at predicting mortality. The GBS (cut-off: >9, AUROC: 0.79, sensitivity: 69.23, specificity: 87.50) and AIMS65 scores (cut-off: >0, AUROC: 0.67, sensitivity: 72.31, specificity: 62.5) were good predictors of need for ICU care.

Conclusion

GBS was superior in predicting categorization into high risk and low risk, and endoscopic intervention, blood transfusion, and intensive care unit (ICU) care in UGIB patients. Pre-Rockall score and AIMS65 score were similar in predicting the mortality rate in UGIB.

Comparisons of six endoscopy independent scoring systems for the prediction of clinical outcomes for elderly and younger patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

To compare the predictive ability of six pre-endoscopic scoring systems (ABC, AIMS65, GBS, MAP(ASH), pRS, and T-score) for outcomes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in elderly and younger patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 1260 patients, including 530 elderly patients (age [Formula: see text] 65) and 730 younger patients (age < 65) presenting with UGIB, was performed at Zhongda Hospital Southeast University, from January 2015 to December 2020. Six scoring systems were used.

RESULTS

ABC had the largest areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.827 (0.792-0.858), and 0.958 (0.929-0.987) for elderly and younger groups for predicting mortality respectively. The differences of the AUCs for predicting the outcome of mortality and rebleeding between the two groups were significant for ABC and pRS (p < 0.01). For intervention prediction, significant differences were observed only for pRS [AUC 0.623 (0.578-0.669) vs. 0.699 (0.646-0.752)] (p < 0.05) between the two groups. For intensive care unit (ICU) admission, the AUC for MAP (ASH) [0.791 (0.718-0.865) vs. 0.891 (0.831-0.950)] and pRS [0.610 (0.514-0.706) vs. 0.891 (0.699-0.865)] were more effective for the younger group (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively). For comparison of scoring systems in the same cohort, ABC was significantly higher than pRS: AUC 0.710 (0.699-0.853, p < 0.05) and T-score 0.670 (0.628-0.710, p < 0.01) for predicting mortality in the elderly group. In the younger group, ABC was significantly higher than GBS and T-score (p < 0.01). MAP(ASH) performs the best in predicting intervention in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

ABC and pRS are more accurate for predicting mortality and rebleeding in the younger cohort, and pRS may not be suitable for elderly patients. There was no difference between the two study populations for GBS, AIMS65, and T-score. Except for ICU admission, MAP(ASH) showed fair accuracy for both cohorts.

A Nomogram Model for Predicting Type-2 Myocardial Infarction Induced by Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To examine the independent risk factors of type-2 myocardial infarction (T2MI) elicited by acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), and to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of AUGIB-induced T2MI.

METHODS

A nomogram model was established on the basis of a retrospective study that involved 533 patients who suffered from AUGIB in the Department of Critical Care Medicine (CCM) or Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, from January 2017 to December 2020. The predictive accuracy and discriminative power of the nomogram were initially evaluated by internal validation, which involved drawing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calculating the area under the curve (AUC), plotting the calibration curve derived from 1000 resampled bootstrap data sets, and computing the root mean square error (RMSE). The predictive ability of the nomogram was further validated through the prospective and multicenter study conducted by the investigators, which enrolled 240 AUGIB patients [including 88 cases from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, 73 cases from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University (Qingdao), and 79 cases from Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital)], who were admitted to the Department of CCM or EICU, from February 2021 to July 2021.

RESULTS

Among the 533 patients in the training cohort, 78 (14.6%) patients were assigned to the T2MI group and 455 (85.4%) patients were assigned to the non-T2MI group. The multivariate analysis revealed that age >65, hemorrhagic shock, cerebral stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, increased blood urea nitrogen, decreased hematocrit, and elevated D-Dimer were independent risk factors for AUGIB-induced T2MI. All these factors were incorporated into the nomogram model. The AUC for the nomogram for predicting T2MI was 0.829 (95% CI, 0.783-0.875) in the internal validation cohort and 0.848 (95% CI, 0.794-0.902) in the external validation cohort. The calibration curve for the risk of T2MI exhibited good consistency between the prediction by the nomogram and the actual clinical observation in both the internal validation (RMSE=0.016) and external validation (RMSE=0.020).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was proven to be a useful tool for the risk stratification of T2MI in AUGIB patients, and is helpful for the early identification of AUGIB patients who are prone to T2MI for early intervention, especially in emergency departments and intensive care units.

Prediction of adverse outcomes using non-endoscopic scoring systems in patients over 80 years of age who present with the upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The emergency department (ED) admission rate for elderly patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is increasing. The AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are two distinct scoring systems proposed to predict in-hospital and post-discharge mortality, length of stay (LOS), and health-related costs in these patients. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the accuracy of these scoring systems, in conjunction with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), to predict 30-day mortality and LOS in UGIB patients who are 80 years of age or older METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 182 patients with non-variceal UGIB who were admitted to the ED of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital. The AIMS65, GBS, and CCI scores were calculated and adverse patient outcomes were assessed.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 85.59±4.33 years, and 90 (49.5%) of the patients were males. The AIMS65 was superior to the GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.877 vs. 0.695, respectively) and CCI (AUROC 0.877 vs. 0.526, respectively) in predicting the 30-day mortality. All three scores performed poorly in predicting the LOS in hospital. The cutoff threshold that maximized sensitivity and specificity for mortality was three for the AIMS65 score (sensitivity, 0.87; specificity, 0.80; negative predictive values [NPV], 0.977; positive predictive values [PPV], 0.392), 14 for GBS (sensitivity, 0.83; specificity, 0.51; NPV, 0.923; PPV, 0.367), and 5 for CCI (sensitivity, 0.91; specificity, 0.22; NPV, 0.946; PPV, 0.145).

CONCLUSION

The AIMS65 is a simple, accurate, and non-endoscopic scoring system that can be performed easily in ED settings. It is superior to GBS and CCI in predicting 30-day mortality in elderly patients with UGIB.

AIMS65 predicts prognosis of patients with duodenal ulcer bleeding; a comparison with other risk-scoring systems

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Duodenal ulcer bleeding has a higher risk of mortality than bleeding from other portions of the gastrointestinal tract. AIMS65 is an effective risk-scoring system to predict prognosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and can be easily calculated without endoscopic findings. In this study, we investigate the usefulness of AIMS65 to predict prognosis of patients with duodenal ulcer bleeding.

METHODS

Two hundred and fifty-five patients with endoscopically diagnosed duodenal ulcer bleeding at Kurashiki Central hospital from July 2007 to June 2017 were studied. We compared AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), admission Rockall, and full Rockall scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality due to duodenal ulcer bleeding occurred in 17 (6.7%). Scores of all scoring systems were significantly higher in patients with in-hospital mortality than in patients without it. AUROC values for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.83 in AIMS65, 0.74 in GBS, 0.76 in admission Rockall score, and 0.82 in full Rockall score, a statistically insignificant difference among the systems. In AIMS65, score more than or equal to 2 was an optimal value to predict in-hospital mortality, with sensitivities of 88.2% and specificities of 59.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

AIMS65 predicted in-hospital mortality of patients with duodenal ulcer bleeding as accurately as did other scoring systems. Given its simplicity of calculation, AIMS65 may be a more clinically practical system in the management of bleeding duodenal ulcer patients.

Comparison of AIMS65 and Glasgow Blatchford scores in predicting mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

Several mortality prediction scores are available for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department; however, most of the available scores include endoscopic data. Endoscopy is difficult or impossible to access for many emergencies departments worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of the albumin, INR, alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure and age 65 score and the Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department and for which endoscopic data were not required.

METHODS

The data of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department during the study period were retrospectively analyzed. The data were obtained from the hospital automation system using the international classification of disease codes via computer registration. The prediction accuracy of AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford score was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method.

RESULTS

There were 422 patients in total; the mean age of these patients was 68.5 while 62.6% were males. The mortality rate was 30 (7.1%). The AIMS65 score performed better with an AUC 0.706 [95%CI 0.660-0.749; p<0.001] compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score (AUC 0.542; 95%CI 0.4693-0.576; p=0.11).

CONCLUSION

In this study, it was revealed that AIMS65, which is a score that can be easily calculated only with the data in the emergency department, outperformed Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department.

Red Blood Cell Transfusion Volumes According to AIMS65 Scores in Patients with Peptic Ulcer Bleeding

OBJECTIVE

Fluid supplementation and red blood cell (RBC) transfusions form first-line management strategies to maintain circulating blood volumes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). In this study, we aimed to analyze the utility of the AIMS65 score in predicting the volume of RBC transfusion required in patients with bleeding peptic ulcers.

METHODS

In this single-center, retrospective study, the data of patients admitted between January 2019 and December 2019 with suspected UGIB were retrospectively reviewed. The RBC volume transfused during pre- and postendoscopic hemostasis was measured in relation to various patient factors including the AIMS65 scores.

RESULTS

Transfusion rates, the mean number of transfused RBC units, and the duration of hospital stay differed significantly between patients with low AIMS65 scores and those with high AIMS65 scores. Patients with an AIMS65 score of 3 were transfused with more RBC units in the postendoscopic hemostasis period, compared with those with an AIMS65 score of 0, 1, or 2 (with a mean of 4.33 ± 2.07 and 2.67 ± 4.1 units transfused during the pre-endoscopic and postendoscopic hemostasis periods, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Patients with UGIB and with an AIMS65 score of 3 were more likely to require transfusions of RBCs.

Comparing the Performance of the ABC, AIMS65, GBS, and pRS Scores in Predicting 90-day Mortality Or Rebleeding Among Emergency Department Patients with Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Prospective Multicenter Study

Background and Objectives

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common problem that can cause significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to compare the performance of the ABC score (ABC), the AIMS65 score (AIMS65), the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score (pRS) in predicting 90-day mortality or rebleeding among patients with acute UGIB.

Methods

This was a prospective multicenter study conducted at 20 tertiary hospitals in China. Data were collected between June 30, 2020 and February 10, 2021. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was used to compare the performance of the four scores in predicting 90-day mortality or rebleeding.

Results

Among the 1072 patients included during the study period, the overall 90-day mortality rate was 10.91% (117/1072) and the rebleeding rate was 12.03% (129/1072). In predicting 90-day mortality, the ABC and pRS scores performed better with an AUC of 0.722 (95% CI 0.675-0.768; P<0.001) and 0.711 (95% CI 0.663-0.757; P<0.001), respectively, compared to the AIMS-65 (AUC, 0.672; 95% CI, 0.624-0.721; P<0.001) and GBS (AUC, 0.624; 95% CI, 0.569-0.679; P<0.001) scores. In predicting rebleeding in 90 days, the AUC of all scores did not exceed 0.70.

Conclusion

In patients with acute UGIB, ABC and pRS performed better than AIMS-65 and GBS in predicting 90-day mortality. The performance of each score is not satisfactory in predicting rebleeding, however. Newer predictive models are needed to predict rebleeding after UGIB.

Hypotension develops one to two hours before other symptoms in peptic ulcer rebleeding; a matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) and is associated with increased mortality. Blood pressure and heart rate are two easy non-invasive measurements to evaluate the hemodynamics and therefore a standard observation during hospitalization.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the dynamics of systolic blood pressure and heart rate up to time of peptic ulcer rebleeding.

DESIGN

Retrospective matched cohort study. Hemodynamics in patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding was compared to hemodynamics in a matched control group consisting of patients with PUB without rebleeding. Blood pressure and heart rate in the six hours up to diagnosis of rebleeding was compared with baseline in the case cohort as well as with the matched control group.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding and 66 controls were included. Mean age was 75 years, 62% were males and 30-day mortality was 23%. Baseline systolic blood pressure in cases was 114 mmHg. Compared to baseline, we found significant decrease in systolic blood pressure two hours before rebleeding (4 mmHg; p = 0.041) and one hour before rebleeding (14 mmHg; p = 0.0002). Mean systolic blood pressure 30 min before rebleeding was 89 mmHg. No significant change was found in heart rate (p = 0.99). In the control group no change was found in systolic blood pressure or heart rate.

CONCLUSION

In patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding, hypotension develops 1-2 h before other symptoms of rebleeding. Thus, close monitoring of blood pressure is needed in order to ensure early identification of rebleeding in high-risk patients.

Novel and Simple Criteria for Predicting Mortality of Peptic Ulcer Disease

Objective Conventional risk scores of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) are based on many parameters, and their application in clinical practice is therefore limited. The aim of this study was to establish simple and reliable criteria for predicting PUD-associated mortality. Methods A total of 499 patients with PUD were divided into 2 groups: the training cohort (n=333) and the validation cohort (n=166). To minimize selection bias due to missing values, we used imputed datasets generated by the multiple imputation method (training-cohort dataset, n=33,300; validation-cohort dataset, n=16,600). Results In the training-cohort dataset, the heart rate-to-systolic blood pressure ratio (HR/SBP) and serum albumin (s-Alb) level were significant independent predictive factors for mortality according to the multivariate analysis [HR/SBP, odds ratio (OR): 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-2.80, p=0.028; s-Alb, OR: 0.23, 95% CI, 0.11-0.51, p<0.001]. The model comprising HR/SBP and s-Alb was able to detect mortality due to PUD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.855. In the validation-cohort dataset, this model also showed good efficacy with an AUC of 0.835. The novel criteria combining HR/SBP and s-Alb developed by a decision tree analysis showed 73.3% sensitivity and 87.6% specificity for predicting mortality in the total-cohort dataset. Our criteria were superior to the Glasgow Blatchford and Rockall scores and similar to the AIMS65 and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva scores for predicting mortality. Conclusion The combination of the HR/SBP ratio and s-Alb level is a good predictor of mortality in patients with PUD.

Comparison of the AIMS65 score with the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

the aim of this study was to compare the AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall score for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB).

METHODS

patients with UGIB admitted to the ZhongDa hospital from June 2015 to July 2017 were retrospectively collected. All patients were assessed by the AIMS65, GBS and Rockall score and the main outcomes were in-hospital mortality. Odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) were estimated to assess the association of the three scores with the risk of death using logistic regression models. Subsequently, their risk stratification accuracy were compared. Finally, their predictive power was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

of the 284 UGIB patients enrolled in the study, 51 (18.0 %) had variceal bleeding (VUGIB) and 10 patients (3.5 %) died. AIMS65 (OR = 5.14, 95 % CI = 2.48, 10.64), GBS (OR = 1.66, 95 % CI = 1.28, 2.15) and Rockall (OR = 2.72, 95 % CI = 1.76, 4.18) scores were positively associated with death risk among all patients. The AIMS65 score (high-risk group vs low-risk group: 11.9 % vs 0.0 %, p < 0.001) was effective to classify high-risk in-hospital deaths populations. The AIMS65 score was the best approach to predict in-hospital death among all UGIB patients (AUROC: AIMS65 0.955, GBS 0.882, Rockall 0.938), NVUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.969, 95 % CI = 0.937, 0.989) or VUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.885, 95 % CI = 0.765, 0.967).

CONCLUSIONS

the AIMS65 score is the most convenient UGIB prognostic score to predict in-hospital mortality and may be more suitable for patients with NVUGIB.

The Sydney AFF Score: A Simple Tool to Distinguish Females Presenting With Atypical Femur Fractures Versus Typical Femur Fractures

Atypical femur fractures (AFF) are a rare but serious complication of long-term bisphosphonate use. Although clearly defined by ASBMR criteria, a proportion of patients with AFFs may go unrecognized and the use of qualitative fracture criteria may lead to uncertainty in AFF diagnosis, with significant therapeutic implications. A score that rapidly and accurately identifies AFFs among subtrochanteric femur fractures using quantitative, measurable parameters is needed. In a retrospective cohort of 110 female patients presenting with AFFs or typical femur fractures (TFFs), multiple logistic regression and decision tree analysis were used to develop the Sydney AFF score. This score, based on demographic and femoral geometry variables, uses three dichotomized independent predictors and adds one point for each: (age ≤80 years) + (femoral neck width <37 mm) + (lateral cortical width at lesser trochanter ≥5 mm), (score, 0 to 3). In an independent validation set of 53 female patients at a different centre in Sydney, a score ≥2 demonstrated 73.3% sensitivity and 69.6% specificity for AFF (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.775, SE 0.063) and remained independently associated with AFF after adjustment for bisphosphonate use. The Sydney AFF score provides a quantitative means of flagging female patients with atraumatic femur fractures who have sustained an AFF as opposed to a TFF. This distinction has clear management implications and may augment current ASBMR diagnostic criteria. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Risk Factors for Acute Coronary Syndrome in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common critical disease with a certain fatality rate. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), another critical ill condition, is a regular occurrence in the UGIB. We identified risk factors for ACS in UGIB.

Methods

676 patients diagnosed with UGIB were enrolled retrospectively. We assessed the occurrence of ACS in UGIB patients and identified the risk factors for ACS by logistic regression analysis and random forest analysis.

Results

After propensity score matching (PSM), the ACS group (n = 69) and non-ACS group (n = 276) were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis showed that syncope (P = 0.001), coronary heart disease history (P = 0.001), Glasgow Blatchford score (P ≤ 0.001), Rockall risk score (P = 0.004), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (P ≤ 0.001), total bilirubin (TBil) (P = 0.046), fibrinogen (P ≤ 0.001), and hemoglobin (P = 0.001) had important roles in ACS patients. With Mean Decrease Gini (MDG) sequencing, fibrinogen, RDW, and hemoglobin were ranked the top three risk factors associated with ACS. In ROC analysis, fibrinogen (AUC = 0.841, 95% CI: 0.779-0.903) and RDW (AUC = 0.826, 95% CI: 0.769-0.883) obtained good discrimination performance. According to sensitivity > 80%, the pAUC of fibrinogen and RDW were 0.077 and 0.101, respectively, and there was no significant difference (P = 0.326). However, according to specificity > 80%, the pAUC of fibrinogen was higher than that of RDW (0.126 vs. 0.088, P = 0.018).

Conclusion

Fibrinogen and RDW were important risk factors for ACS in UGIB. Additionally, combination with coronary heart disease, syncope, hemoglobin, and TBil played important roles in the occurrence of ACS. Meanwhile, it was also noted that Rockall score and Glasgow Blatchford score should be performed to predict the risk.

Prospective Comparison of the AIMS65 Score, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and Rockall Score for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Variceal and Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background/Aims

This study aimed to determine the performance of the AIMS65 score (AIMS65), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), and Rockall score (RS) in predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), and to compare the results between patients with nonvariceal UGIB (NVUGIB) and those with variceal UGIB (VUGIB).

Methods

We conducted a prospective observational study between March 2016 and December 2017. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for all outcomes for comparison. The associations of all three scores with mortality were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Of the total of 337 patients with UGIB, 267 patients (79.2%) had NVUGIB. AIMS65 was significantly associated (odds ratio [OR], 1.735; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.148–2.620), RS was marginally associated (OR, 1.225; 95% CI, 0.973–1.543), but GBS was not associated (OR, 1.017; 95% CI, 0.890–1.163) with mortality risk in patients with UGIB. However, all three scores accurately predicted all other outcomes (all p<0.05) except rebleeding (p>0.05). Only AIMS65 precisely predicted mortality, the need for blood transfusion and the composite endpoint (all p<0.05) in patients with VUGIB.

Conclusions

AIMS65 is superior to GBS and RS in predicting mortality in patients with UGIB, and also precisely predicts the need for blood transfusion and the composite endpoint in patients with VUGIB. No scoring system could satisfactorily predict rebleeding in all patients with UGIB.

Comparison of three risk scores to predict outcomes in upper gastrointestinal bleeding; modifying Glasgow-Blatchford with albumin

INTRODUCTION

Management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is of great importance. In this way, we aimed to evaluate the performance of three well known scoring systems of AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) and Full Rockall Score (FRS) in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with UGIB as well as their ability in identifying low risk patients for outpatient management. We also aimed to assess whether changing albumin cutoff in AIMS65 and addition of albumin to GBS add predictive value to these scores.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study on adult patients who were admitted to Razi hospital (Rasht, Iran) with diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding between March 21, 2013 and March 21, 2017. Patients who didn't undergo endoscopy or had incomplete medical data were excluded. Initially, we calculated three score systems of AIMS65, GBS and FRS for each patient by using initial Vital signs and lab data. Secondary, we modified AIMS65 and GBS by changing albumin threshold from <3.5 to <3.0 in AIMS65 and addition of albumin to GBS, respectively. Primary outcomes were defined as in hospital mortality, 30-day rebleeding, need for blood transfusion and endoscopic therapy. Secondary outcome was defined as composition of primary outcomes excluding need for blood transfusion. We used AUROC to assess predictive accuracy of risk scores in primary and secondary outcomes. For albumin-GBS model, the AUROC was only calculated for predicting mortality and secondary outcome. The negative predictive value for AIMS65, GBS and modified AIMS65 was then calculated.

RESULT

Of 563 patients, 3% died in hospital, 69.4% needed blood transfusion, 13.1% needed endoscopic therapy and 3% had 30-day rebleeding. The leading cause of UGIB was erosive disease. In predicting composite of adverse outcomes all scores had statistically significant accuracy with highest AUROC for albumin-GBS. However, in predicting in hospital mortality, only albumin-GBS, modified AIMS65 and AIMS65 had acceptable accuracy. Interestingly, albumin, alone, had higher predictive accuracy than other original risk scores. None of the four scores could predict 30-day rebleeding accurately; on the contrary, their accuracy in predicting need for blood transfusion was high enough. The negative predictive value for GBS was 96.6% in score of ≤2 and 85.7% and 90.2% in score of zero in AIMS65 and modified AIMS65, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Neither of risk scores was highly accurate as a prognostic factor in our population; however, modified AIMS65 and albumin-GBS may be optimal choice in evaluating risk of mortality and general assessment. In identifying patient for safe discharge, GBS ≤ 2 seemed to be advisable choice.

Predictors of rebleeding and in-hospital mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper digestive bleeding

BACKGROUND

Nonvariceal upper digestive bleeding (NVUDB) represents a severe emergency condition and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite a decrease in the incidence due to the widespread use of potent therapy with proton pump inhibitors as well as the implementation of modern endoscopic techniques, the mortality rate associated with NVUDB is still high.

AIM

To identify the clinical, biological, and endoscopic parameters associated with a poor outcome in patients with NVUDB to allow the stratification of risk, which will lead to the implementation of the most accurate management.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including patients who were admitted to the Gastroenterology Department of Clinical Emergency County Hospital Timisoara, Romania, with a diagnosis of NVUDB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2016. All the data were collected from the patient’s records, including demographic data, medication history, hemodynamic status, paraclinical tests, and endoscopic features as well as the methods of hemostasis, rate of rebleeding, need for surgery and death; we also assessed the Rockall score of the patients, length of hospitalization and associated comorbidities. All these parameters were evaluated as potential risk factors associated with rebleeding and death in patients with NVUDB.

RESULTS

We included a batch of 1581 patients with NVUDB, including 523 (33%) females and 1058 (67%) males with a median age of 66 years. The main cause of NVUDB was peptic ulcer (73% of patients). More than one-third of the patients needed endoscopic treatment. Rebleeding rate was 7.72%; surgery due to failure of endoscopic hemostasis was needed in 3.22% of cases; the in-hospital mortality rate was 8.09%, and the bleeding-episode-related mortality rate was 2.97%. Although our predictive models for rebleeding and death had a low sensitivity, the specificity was very high, suggesting a better discriminative capacity for identifying patients with better outcomes. Our results showed that the Rockall score was associated with both rebleeding and death; comorbidities such as respiratory conditions, liver cirrhosis and sepsis increased significantly the risk of in-hospital mortality (OR of 3.29, 2.91 and 8.03).

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed that the Rockall score, need for endoscopic therapy, necessity of transfusion and sepsis were risk factors for rebleeding. Moreover, an increased Rockall score and the presence of comorbidities were predictive factors for in-hospital mortality.

Risk stratification in upper and upper and lower GI bleeding: Which scores should we use?

Risk assessment is widely used in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) however no score accurately predicts all important clinical outcomes. This review discusses the performance of the Rockall score, pre-endsocopy Rockall score, Glasgow-Blatchford score, AIMS-65 and newer scores such as Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva and CANUKA scores. The quality of external validation varies considerably for each score. There is a relative lack of risk scores available for use in lower GI bleeding (LGIB) but recent developments have focussed on the identification of low risk patients. The BLEED, NOBLADS, Strate and Sengupta scores have been developed to predict severe bleeding or death, each with varying performance. The Oakland score has been developed to identify patients at low risk of adverse outcomes who may be suitable for outpatient management. The comparative performance of the LGIB scores and Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS-65 in the prediction of outcomes in LGIB is also discussed.