Global travel patterns and risk of measles in Ontario and Quebec, Canada: 2007-2011

Measles Antibody Levels in Young Infants

BACKGROUND

Infants are often assumed to be immune to measles through maternal antibodies transferred during pregnancy and, in many countries, receive their first measles-containing vaccine at 12 to 15 months. Immunity may wane before this time in measles-eliminated settings, placing infants at risk for measles and complications. We investigated humoral immunity to measles in infants <12 months of age in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We selected sera collected at a tertiary pediatric hospital from infants <12 months who were born at ≥37 weeks' gestational age. We excluded infants with conditions that affect antibody levels. We selected ≤25 sera from 8 predetermined age bands and tested them for measles-neutralizing antibody using the plaque-reduction neutralization test. We calculated the proportion immune at each age band, and predictors of infant susceptibility were assessed by using multivariable logistic regression and Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Of 196 infant sera, 56% (110 of 196) were from boys, and 35% (69 of 196) were from infants with underlying medical conditions. In the first month, 20% (5 of 25) of infants had antibodies below the protective threshold, which increased to 92% (22 of 24) by 3 months. By 6 months, all infants had titers below the protective threshold. In a multivariable analysis, infant age was the strongest predictor of susceptibility (odds ratio = 2.13 for each additional month increase; 95% confidence interval: 1.52-2.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Most infants were susceptible to measles by 3 months of age in this elimination setting. Our findings inform important policy discussions relating to the timing of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine and infant postexposure prophylaxis recommendations.

The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review

BackgroundA variety of airline passenger data sources are used for modelling the international spread of infectious diseases. Questions exist regarding the suitability and validity of these sources.AimWe conducted a systematic review to identify the sources of airline passenger data used for these purposes and to assess validation of the data and reproducibility of the methodology.MethodsArticles matching our search criteria and describing a model of the international spread of human infectious disease, parameterised with airline passenger data, were identified. Information regarding type and source of airline passenger data used was collated and the studies' reproducibility assessed.ResultsWe identified 136 articles. The majority (n = 96) sourced data primarily used by the airline industry. Governmental data sources were used in 30 studies and data published by individual airports in four studies. Validation of passenger data was conducted in only seven studies. No study was found to be fully reproducible, although eight were partially reproducible.LimitationsBy limiting the articles to international spread, articles focussed on within-country transmission even if they used relevant data sources were excluded. Authors were not contacted to clarify their methods. Searches were limited to articles in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus.ConclusionWe recommend greater efforts to assess validity and biases of airline passenger data used for modelling studies, particularly when model outputs are to inform national and international public health policies. We also recommend improving reporting standards and more detailed studies on biases in commercial and open-access data to assess their reproducibility.

Assessment of population immunity to measles in Ontario, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study

Canada eliminated measles in 1998. We conducted a sero-epidemiology study to estimate population immunity to measles in the province of Ontario, Canada and to identify groups at higher risk of outbreaks. We used a previously developed modified enzyme immunoassay to test 1,199 residual sera from patients aged 1–39 years. We re-tested negative and equivocal sera using a plaque reduction neutralization assay. We interpreted our results in the context of Ontario’s immunization program and vaccine coverage data. Of 1,199 sera, 1035 (86.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 84.4, 88.2) were above the measles threshold for protection, 70 (5.8%, 95% CI 4.5, 7.2) were equivocal and 94 (7.8%, 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) were negative. The proportion of positive sera was highest for those 1–5 years, with 180/199 (90.5%, 95% CI 86.4, 94.5) positive sera, and lowest for those age 12–19 years, at 158/199 (79.4%, 95% CI 73.8, 85.0). Adjusted for age, females were more likely than males to have antibody titers above the threshold of protection (odds ratio = 1.60, 95% CI 1.14, 2.24). Most of the study cohort were eligible for two measles vaccine doses, and vaccine uptake in Ontario is >90% for school-aged cohorts. We observed a higher than expected proportion of sera with antibody levels below the threshold of protection, suggesting that immunity in some Ontario age-groups may be waning, despite high vaccine coverage. Alternatively, the traditional measles correlates of protection may not be an appropriate measure of population protection in measles-eliminated settings.

Measles Outbreak with Unique Virus Genotyping, Ontario, Canada, 2015

The province of Ontario continues to experience measles virus transmissions despite the elimination of measles in Canada. We describe an unusual outbreak of measles in Ontario, Canada, in early 2015 that involved cases with a unique strain of virus and no known association among primary case-patients. A total of 18 cases of measles were reported from 4 public health units during the outbreak period (January 25–March 23, 2015); none of these cases occurred in persons who had recently traveled. Despite enhancements to case-patient interview methods and epidemiologic analyses, a source patient was not identified. However, the molecular epidemiologic analysis, which included extended sequencing, strongly suggested that all cases derived from a single importation of measles virus genotype D4. The use of timely genotype sequencing, rigorous epidemiologic investigation, and a better understanding of the gaps in surveillance are needed to maintain Ontario’s measles elimination status.

Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era

Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.

Comparison of monoplex and duplex RT-PCR assays for the detection of measles virus

Rapid and accurate detection of measles virus is important for case diagnosis and public health management. This study compared the performance of two monoplex RT-PCR reactions targeting the H and N genes to a duplex RT-PCR targeting both genes simultaneously. The duplex simplified processing without compromising assay performance characteristic.