Comparison of crowd-sourced, electronic health records based, and traditional health-care based influenza-tracking systems at multiple spatial resolutions in the United States of America

Comparison of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from the novel LeCellPHIA participatory surveillance system with COVID-19 case count data, Lesotho, July 2020 - July 2021

BACKGROUND

While laboratory testing for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is the surveillance gold standard, it is not always feasible, particularly in settings where resources are scarce. In the small country of Lesotho, located in sub-Saharan Africa, COVID-19 testing has been limited, thus surveillance data available to local authorities are limited. The goal of this study was to compare a participatory influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance system in Lesotho with COVID-19 case count data, and ultimately to determine whether the participatory surveillance system adequately estimates the case count data.

METHODS

A nationally-representative sample was called on their mobile phones weekly to create an estimate of incidence of ILI between July 2020 and July 2021. Case counts from the website Our World in Data (OWID) were used as the gold standard to which our participatory surveillance data were compared. We calculated Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients to compare the weekly incidence of ILI reports to COVID-19 case count data.

RESULTS

Over course of the study period, an ILI symptom was reported 1,085 times via participatory surveillance for an average annual cumulative incidence of 45.7 per 100 people (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 40.7 - 51.4). The cumulative incidence of reports of ILI symptoms was similar among males (46.5, 95% CI: 39.6 - 54.4) and females (45.1, 95% CI: 39.8 - 51.1). There was a slightly higher annual cumulative incidence of ILI among persons living in peri-urban (49.5, 95% CI: 31.7 - 77.3) and urban settings compared to rural areas. The January peak of the participatory surveillance system ILI estimates correlated significantly with the January peak of the COVID-19 case count data (Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.49; P < 0.001) (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.67; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ILI trends captured by the participatory surveillance system in Lesotho mirrored trends of the COVID-19 case count data from Our World in Data. Public health practitioners in geographies that lack the resources to conduct direct surveillance of infectious diseases may be able to use cell phone-based data collection to monitor trends.

Engaging a national-scale cohort of smart thermometer users in participatory surveillance

Participatory surveillance systems crowdsource individual reports to rapidly assess population health phenomena. The value of these systems increases when more people join and persistently contribute. We examine the level of and factors associated with engagement in participatory surveillance among a retrospective, national-scale cohort of individuals using smartphone-connected thermometers with a companion app that allows them to report demographic and symptom information. Between January 1, 2020 and October 29, 2022, 1,325,845 participants took 20,617,435 temperature readings, yielding 3,529,377 episodes of consecutive readings. There were 1,735,805 (49.2%) episodes with self-reported symptoms (including reports of no symptoms). Compared to before the pandemic, participants were more likely to report their symptoms during pandemic waves, especially after the winter wave began (September 13, 2020) (OR across pandemic periods range from 3.0 to 4.0). Further, symptoms were more likely to be reported during febrile episodes (OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 2.6-2.6), and for new participants, during their first episode (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.4-2.5). Compared with participants aged 50-65 years old, participants over 65 years were less likely to report their symptoms (OR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.3-0.3). Participants in a household with both adults and children (OR = 1.6 [1.6-1.7]) were more likely to report symptoms. We find that the use of smart thermometers with companion apps facilitates the collection of data on a large, national scale, and provides real time insight into transmissible disease phenomena. Nearly half of individuals using these devices are willing to report their symptoms after taking their temperature, although participation varies among individuals and over pandemic stages.

Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close monitoring of their trajectories. We present machine learning methods that leverage internet-based digital traces to anticipate sharp increases in COVID-19 activity in U.S. counties. In a complementary direction to the efforts led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), our models are designed to detect the time when an uptrend in COVID-19 activity will occur. Motivated by the need for finer spatial resolution epidemiological insights, we build upon previous efforts conceived at the state level. Our methods-tested in an out-of-sample manner, as events were unfolding, in 97 counties representative of multiple population sizes across the United States-frequently anticipated increases in COVID-19 activity 1 to 6 weeks before local outbreaks, defined when the effective reproduction number R_t becomes larger than 1 for a period of 2 weeks.

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in New York metropolitan area: The view from a major urgent care provider

Purpose

Tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and positivity trends is crucial for understanding the trajectory of the pandemic. We describe demographic and clinical characteristics, testing, and positivity rates for SARS-CoV-2 among 2.8 million patients evaluated at an urgent care provider.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of patients receiving a diagnostic or serologic test for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1, 2020 and July 20, 2021 at 115 CityMD locations in the New York metropolitan area. Temporal trends in SARS-CoV-2 positivity by diagnostic and serologic tests stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and borough of residence were assessed.

Results

During the study period, 6.1 million COVID diagnostic and serological tests were performed on 2.8 million individuals. Testing levels were higher among 20–29-year-old, non-Hispanic White, and female patients compared with other groups. About 35% were repeat testers. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction positivity was higher in non-Hispanic Black (7.9%), Hispanic (8.2%), and Native American (8.2%) compared to non-Hispanic White (5.7%) patients. Overall seropositivity was estimated to be 22.1% (95% confidence interval: 22.0–22.2) and was highest among 10–14 year olds (27.9%), and non-Hispanic Black (26.0%) and Hispanic (31.0%) testers.

Conclusion

Urgent care centers can provide broad access to diagnostic testing and critical evaluation for ambulatory patients during pandemics, especially in population-dense, urban epicenters.  Urgent care center electronic medical records data can provide in-depth surveillance during pandemics complementary to citywide health department data sources.

Using GPS-enabled mobile phones to evaluate the associations between human mobility changes and the onset of influenza illness

Due to the challenges in data collection, there are few studies examining how individuals' routine mobility patterns change when they experience influenza-like symptoms (ILS). In the present study, we aimed to assess the association between changes in routine mobility and ILS using mobile phone-based GPS traces and self-reported surveys from 1,155 participants over the 2016-2017 influenza season. We used a set of mobility metrics to capture individuals' routine mobility patterns and matched their weekly ILS survey responses. For a statistical analysis, we used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis and conducted a stratified analysis to examine if such associations are moderated by demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as age, gender, occupational status, neighborhood poverty and education levels, and work type. We found that statistically significant associations existed between reduced routine mobility patterns and the experience of ILS. Results also indicated that the association between reduced mobility and ILS was significant only for female and for participants with high socioeconomic status. Our findings offered an improved understanding of ILS-associated mobility changes at the individual level and suggest the potential of individual mobility data for influenza surveillance.

Concordance between the Clinical Diagnosis of Influenza in Primary Care and Epidemiological Surveillance Systems (PREVIGrip Study)

Introduction: Health authorities use different systems of influenza surveillance. Sentinel networks, which are recommended by the World Health Organization, provide information on weekly influenza incidence in a monitored population, based on laboratory-confirmed cases. In Catalonia there is a public website, DiagnostiCat, that publishes the number of weekly clinical diagnoses at the end of each week of disease registration, while the sentinel network publishes its reports later. The objective of this study was to determine whether there is concordance between the number of cases of clinical diagnoses and the number of confirmed cases of influenza, in order to evaluate the predictive potential of a clinical diagnosis-based system. Methods: Population-based ecological time series study in Catalonia. The period runs from the 2010–2011 to the 2018–2019 season. The concordance between the clinical diagnostic cases and the confirmed cases was evaluated. The degree of agreement and the concordance were analysed using Bland–Altman graphs and intraclass correlation coefficients. Results: There was greater concordance between the clinical diagnoses and the sum of the cases confirmed outside and within the sentinel network than between the diagnoses and the confirmed sentinel cases. The degree of agreement was higher when influenza rates were low. Conclusions: There is concordance between the clinical diagnosis and the confirmed cases of influenza. Registered clinical diagnostic cases could provide a good alternative to traditional surveillance, based on case confirmation. Cases of clinical diagnosis of influenza may have the potential to predict the onset of annual influenza epidemics.

Comparison of longitudinal trends in self-reported symptoms and COVID-19 case activity in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Limitations in laboratory diagnostic capacity impact population surveillance of COVID-19. It is currently unknown whether participatory surveillance tools for COVID-19 correspond to government-reported case trends longitudinally and if it can be used as an adjunct to laboratory testing. The primary objective of this study was to determine whether self-reported COVID-19-like illness reflected laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case trends in Ontario Canada.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed longitudinal self-reported symptoms data collected using an online tool-Outbreaks Near Me (ONM)-from April 20th, 2020, to March 7th, 2021 in Ontario, Canada. We measured the correlation between COVID-like illness among respondents and the weekly number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and provincial test positivity. We explored contemporaneous changes in other respiratory viruses, as well as the demographic characteristics of respondents to provide context for our findings.

RESULTS

Between 3,849-11,185 individuals responded to the symptom survey each week. No correlations were seen been self-reported CLI and either cases or test positivity. Strong positive correlations were seen between CLI and both cases and test positivity before a previously documented rise in rhinovirus/enterovirus in fall 2020. Compared to participatory surveillance respondents, a higher proportion of COVID-19 cases in Ontario consistently came from low-income, racialized and immigrant areas of the province- these groups were less well represented among survey respondents.

INTERPRETATION

Although digital surveillance systems are low-cost tools that have been useful to signal the onset of viral outbreaks, in this longitudinal comparison of self-reported COVID-like illness to Ontario COVID-19 case data we did not find this to be the case. Seasonal respiratory virus transmission and population coverage may explain this discrepancy.

Re-examining COVID-19 Self-Reported Symptom Tracking Programs in the United States: Updated Framework Synthesis

BACKGROUND

Early in the pandemic, in 2020, Koehlmoos et al completed a framework synthesis of currently available self-reported symptom tracking programs for COVID-19. This framework described relevant programs, partners and affiliates, funding, responses, platform, and intended audience, among other considerations.

OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to update the existing framework with the aim of identifying developments in the landscape and highlighting how programs have adapted to changes in pandemic response.

METHODS

Our team developed a framework to collate information on current COVID-19 self-reported symptom tracking programs using the "best-fit" framework synthesis approach. All programs from the previous study were included to document changes. New programs were discovered using a Google search for target keywords. The time frame for the search for programs ranged from March 1, 2021, to May 6, 2021.

RESULTS

We screened 33 programs, of which 8 were included in our final framework synthesis. We identified multiple common data elements, including demographic information such as race, age, gender, and affiliation (all were associated with universities, medical schools, or schools of public health). Dissimilarities included questions regarding vaccination status, vaccine hesitancy, adherence to social distancing, COVID-19 testing, and mental health.

CONCLUSIONS

At this time, the future of self-reported symptom tracking for COVID-19 is unclear. Some sources have speculated that COVID-19 may become a yearly occurrence much like the flu, and if so, the data that these programs generate is still valuable. However, it is unclear whether the public will maintain the same level of interest in reporting their symptoms on a regular basis if the prevalence of COVID-19 becomes more common.

Front-Line Emergency Department Clinician Acceptability and Use of a Prototype Real-Time Cloud-Based Influenza Surveillance System

Objectives: To assess emergency department (ED) clinicians' perceptions of a novel real-time influenza surveillance system using a pre- and post-implementation structured survey.

Methods: We created and implemented a laboratory-based real-time influenza surveillance system at two EDs at the beginning of the 2013-2014 influenza season. Patients with acute respiratory illness were tested for influenza using rapid PCR-based Cepheid Xpert Flu assay. Results were instantaneously uploaded to a cloud-based data aggregation system made available to clinicians via a web-based dashboard. Clinicians received bimonthly email updates summating year-to-date results. Clinicians were surveyed prior to, and after the influenza season, to assess their views regarding acceptability and utility of the surveillance system data which were shared via dashboard and email updates.

Results: The pre-implementation survey revealed that the majority (82%) of the 151 ED clinicians responded that they “sporadically” or “don't,” actively seek influenza-related information during the season. However, most (75%) reported that they would find additional information regarding influenza prevalence useful. Following implementation, there was an overall increase in the frequency of clinician self-reporting increased access to surveillance information from 50 to 63%, with the majority (75%) indicating that the surveillance emails impacted their general awareness of influenza. Clinicians reported that the additional real-time surveillance data impacted their testing (65%) and treatment (51%) practices.

Conclusions: The majority of ED clinicians found surveillance data useful and indicated the additional information impacted their clinical practice. Accurate and timely surveillance information, distributed in a provider-friendly format could impact ED clinician management of patients with suspected influenza.

Cross-sectional telephone surveys as a tool to study epidemiological factors and monitor seasonal influenza activity in Malta

Background

Seasonal influenza has major implications for healthcare services as outbreaks often lead to high activity levels in health systems. Being able to predict when such outbreaks occur is vital. Mathematical models have extensively been used to predict epidemics of infectious diseases such as seasonal influenza and to assess effectiveness of control strategies. Availability of comprehensive and reliable datasets used to parametrize these models is limited. In this paper we combine a unique epidemiological dataset collected in Malta through General Practitioners (GPs) with a novel method using cross-sectional surveys to study seasonal influenza dynamics in Malta in 2014–2016, to include social dynamics and self-perception related to seasonal influenza.

Methods

Two cross-sectional public surveys (n = 406 per survey) were performed by telephone across the Maltese population in 2014–15 and 2015–16 influenza seasons. Survey results were compared with incidence data (diagnosed seasonal influenza cases) collected by GPs in the same period and with Google Trends data for Malta. Information was collected on whether participants recalled their health status in past months, occurrences of influenza symptoms, hospitalisation rates due to seasonal influenza, seeking GP advice, and other medical information.

Results

We demonstrate that cross-sectional surveys are a reliable alternative data source to medical records. The two surveys gave comparable results, indicating that the level of recollection among the public is high. Based on two seasons of data, the reporting rate in Malta varies between 14 and 22%. The comparison with Google Trends suggests that the online searches peak at about the same time as the maximum extent of the epidemic, but the public interest declines and returns to background level. We also found that the public intensively searched the Internet for influenza-related terms even when number of cases was low.

Conclusions

Our research shows that a telephone survey is a viable way to gain deeper insight into a population’s self-perception of influenza and its symptoms and to provide another benchmark for medical statistics provided by GPs and Google Trends. The information collected can be used to improve epidemiological modelling of seasonal influenza and other infectious diseases, thus effectively contributing to public health.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11862-x.

Epidemiological observations on breaking COVID-19 transmission: from the experience of Taiwan

With almost no community-transmitted cases and without any complete lockdown throughout 2020, Taiwan is one of very few countries worldwide that has recorded minimal impact from the COVID-19 pandemic attack. This is despite being only 130 km from China and having frequent business communications with that country, where COVID-19 first emerged. At the end of December 2020, Taiwan had recorded just 873 cases and 7 deaths, in a country of around 24 million people. How to determine the effectiveness of public health policies is an important issue that must be resolved, especially in those countries that have experienced few cases of community-transmitted COVID-19. Our analysis of epidemiological data in Taiwan relating to influenza-like illness (ILI), enterovirus and diarrhoea from the past 3 years reveals dramatic reductions in the incidence of ILI and enterovirus in 2020, compared with 2018 and 2019. These reductions occurred within 2 weeks of the government issuing public health policies for COVID-19 and indicate that such policies can effectively reduce infectious diseases overall. In contrast, no such reduction in ILI activity was observed in 2020 after the first COVID-19 case was reported in the USA. We suggest that infectious diseases data can be used to inform effective public health policies needed to break the transmission chain of COVID-19 and that ongoing monitoring of infectious diseases data can provide confidence about nationwide health.

Informatics Approaches for Recognition, Management, and Prevention of Occupational Respiratory Disease

Computer and information systems can improve occupational respiratory disease prevention and surveillance by providing efficient resources for patients, workers, clinicians, and public health practitioners. Advances include interlinking electronic health records, autocoding surveillance data, clinical decision support systems, and social media applications for acquiring and disseminating information. Obstacles to advances include inflexible hierarchical coding schemes, inadequate occupational health electronic health record systems, and inadequate public focus on occupational respiratory disease. Potentially transformative approaches include machine learning, natural language processing, and improved ontologies.

COVID-19 Self-Reported Symptom Tracking Programs in the United States: Framework Synthesis

BACKGROUND

With the continued spread of COVID-19 in the United States, identifying potential outbreaks before infected individuals cross the clinical threshold is key to allowing public health officials time to ensure local health care institutions are adequately prepared. In response to this need, researchers have developed participatory surveillance technologies that allow individuals to report emerging symptoms daily so that their data can be extrapolated and disseminated to local health care authorities.

OBJECTIVE

This study uses a framework synthesis to evaluate existing self-reported symptom tracking programs in the United States for COVID-19 as an early-warning tool for probable clusters of infection. This in turn will inform decision makers and health care planners about these technologies and the usefulness of their information to aid in federal, state, and local efforts to mobilize effective current and future pandemic responses.

METHODS

Programs were identified through keyword searches and snowball sampling, then screened for inclusion. A best fit framework was constructed for all programs that met the inclusion criteria by collating information collected from each into a table for easy comparison.

RESULTS

We screened 8 programs; 6 were included in our final framework synthesis. We identified multiple common data elements, including demographic information like race, age, gender, and affiliation (all were associated with universities, medical schools, or schools of public health). Dissimilarities included collection of data regarding smoking status, mental well-being, and suspected exposure to COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Several programs currently exist that track COVID-19 symptoms from participants on a semiregular basis. Coordination between symptom tracking program research teams and local and state authorities is currently lacking, presenting an opportunity for collaboration to avoid duplication of efforts and more comprehensive knowledge dissemination.

Web and phone-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance in Canada: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Syndromic surveillance through web or phone-based polling has been used to track the course of infectious diseases worldwide. Our study objective was to describe the characteristics, symptoms, and self-reported testing rates of respondents in three different COVID-19 symptom surveys in Canada.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study using three distinct Canada-wide web-based surveys, and phone polling in Ontario. All three sources contained self-reported information on COVID-19 symptoms and testing. In addition to describing respondent characteristics, we examined symptom frequency and the testing rate among the symptomatic, as well as rates of symptoms and testing across respondent groups.

RESULTS

We found that over March- April 2020, 1.6% of respondents experienced a symptom on the day of their survey, 15% of Ontario households had a symptom in the previous week, and 44% of Canada-wide respondents had a symptom in the previous month. Across the three surveys, SARS-CoV-2-testing was reported in 2-9% of symptomatic responses. Women, younger and middle-aged adults (versus older adults) and Indigenous/First nations/Inuit/Métis were more likely to report at least one symptom, and visible minorities were more likely to report the combination of fever with cough or shortness of breath.

INTERPRETATION

The low rate of testing among those reporting symptoms suggests significant opportunity to expand testing among community-dwelling residents of Canada. Syndromic surveillance data can supplement public health reports and provide much-needed context to gauge the adequacy of SARS-CoV-2 testing rates.

Elucidating user behaviours in a digital health surveillance system to correct prevalence estimates

Estimating seasonal influenza prevalence is of undeniable public health importance, but remains challenging with traditional datasets due to cost and timeliness. Digital epidemiology has the potential to address this challenge, but can introduce sampling biases that are distinct to traditional systems. In online participatory health surveillance systems, the voluntary nature of the data generating process must be considered to address potential biases in estimates. Here we examine user behaviours in one such platform, FluTracking, from 2011 to 2017. We build a Bayesian model to estimate probabilities of an individual reporting in each week, given their past reporting behaviour, and to infer the weekly prevalence of influenza-like-illness (ILI) in Australia. We show that a model that corrects for user behaviour can substantially affect ILI estimates. The model examined here elucidates several factors, such as the status of having ILI and consistency of prior reporting, that are strongly associated with the likelihood of participating in online health surveillance systems. This framework could be applied to other digital participatory health systems where participation is inconsistent and sampling bias may be of concern.

Socioeconomic bias in influenza surveillance

Individuals in low socioeconomic brackets are considered at-risk for developing influenza-related complications and often exhibit higher than average influenza-related hospitalization rates. This disparity has been attributed to various factors, including restricted access to preventative and therapeutic health care, limited sick leave, and household structure. Adequate influenza surveillance in these at-risk populations is a critical precursor to accurate risk assessments and effective intervention. However, the United States of America’s primary national influenza surveillance system (ILINet) monitors outpatient healthcare providers, which may be largely inaccessible to lower socioeconomic populations. Recent initiatives to incorporate Internet-source and hospital electronic medical records data into surveillance systems seek to improve the timeliness, coverage, and accuracy of outbreak detection and situational awareness. Here, we use a flexible statistical framework for integrating multiple surveillance data sources to evaluate the adequacy of traditional (ILINet) and next generation (BioSense 2.0 and Google Flu Trends) data for situational awareness of influenza across poverty levels. We find that ZIP Codes in the highest poverty quartile are a critical vulnerability for ILINet that the integration of next generation data fails to ameliorate.

Public health agencies maintain increasingly sophisticated surveillance systems, which integrate diverse data streams within limited budgets. Here we develop a method to design robust and efficient forecasting systems for influenza hospitalizations. With these forecasting models, we find support for a key data gap namely that the USA’s public health surveillance data sets are much more representative of higher socioeconomic sub-populations and perform poorly for the most at-risk communities. Thus, our study highlights another related socioeconomic inequity—a reduced capability to monitor outbreaks in at-risk populations—which impedes effective public health interventions.

DOT: a crowdsourcing Mobile application for disease outbreak detection and surveillance in Mauritius

Early detection of disease outbreaks is crucial and even small improvements in detection can significantly impact on a country’s public health. In this work, we investigate the use of a crowdsourcing application and a real-time disease outbreak surveillance system for five diseases; Influenza, Gastroenteritis, Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), Scabies and Conjunctivitis, that are closely monitored in Mauritius. We also analyze and correlate the collected data with past statistics. A crowdsourcing mobile application known as Disease Outbreak Tracker (DOT) was implemented and made public. A real-time disease surveillance system using the Early Aberration Reporting System algorithm (EARS) for analysis of the collected data was also implemented. The collected data were correlated to historical data for 2017. Data were successfully collected and plotted on a daily basis. The results show that a few cases of Flu and Scabies were reported in some districts. The EARS methods C1, C2 and C3 also depicted spikes above the set threshold on some days. The study covers data collected over a period of one month. Once symptoms data were collected using DOT, probabilistic methods were used to find the disease or diseases that the user was suffering from. The data were further processed to find the extent of the disease outbreak district-wise, per disease. These data were represented graphically for a rapid understanding of the situation in each district. Our findings concur with existing data for the same period for previous years showing that the crowdsourcing application can aid in the detection of disease outbreaks.

Surveilling Influenza Incidence With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web Traffic Data: Demonstration Using a Novel Dataset

Background

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden worldwide. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and forecasting future outbreaks is desirable to provide more timely responses to influenza epidemics.

Objective

This study aimed to present the first implementation of a novel dataset by demonstrating its ability to supplement traditional disease surveillance at multiple spatial resolutions.

Methods

We used internet traffic data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website to determine the potential usability of this data source. We tested the traffic generated by 10 influenza-related pages in 8 states and 9 census divisions within the United States and compared it against clinical surveillance data.

Results

Our results yielded an r² value of 0.955 in the most successful case, promising results for some cases, and unsuccessful results for other cases. In the interest of scientific transparency to further the understanding of when internet data streams are an appropriate supplemental data source, we also included negative results (ie, unsuccessful models). Models that focused on a single influenza season were more successful than those that attempted to model multiple influenza seasons. Geographic resolution appeared to play a key role, with national and regional models being more successful, overall, than models at the state level.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate that internet data may be able to complement traditional influenza surveillance in some cases but not in others. Specifically, our results show that the CDC website traffic may inform national- and division-level models but not models for each individual state. In addition, our results show better agreement when the data were broken up by seasons instead of aggregated over several years. We anticipate that this work will lead to more complex nowcasting and forecasting models using this data stream.

Influenza-like illness in Australia: A comparison of general practice surveillance system with electronic medical records

Surveillance systems are fundamental to detect infectious disease outbreaks and guide public health responses. We compared influenza-like illness (ILI) rates for 2015-2017 using data from the Australian Sentinel Practice Research Network (ASPREN) and electronic medical records from 550 general practices across Australia (MedicineInsight). There was a high correlation between both sources (r = .84-.95) and a consistent higher ILI rate in 2017. Both sources also showed higher ILI rates among women and patients aged 20-49 years. The use of routinely collected electronic medical records like those in MedicineInsight could be used to complement active influenza surveillance systems in Australia.

Differences in Regional Patterns of Influenza Activity Across Surveillance Systems in the United States: Comparative Evaluation

BACKGROUND

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks influenza-like illness (ILI) using information on patient visits to health care providers through the Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). As participation in this system is voluntary, the composition, coverage, and consistency of health care reports vary from state to state, leading to different measures of ILI activity between regions. The degree to which these measures reflect actual differences in influenza activity or systematic differences in the methods used to collect and aggregate the data is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to qualitatively and quantitatively compare national and region-specific ILI activity in the United States across 4 surveillance data sources-CDC ILINet, Flu Near You (FNY), athenahealth, and HealthTweets.org-to determine whether these data sources, commonly used as input in influenza modeling efforts, show geographical patterns that are similar to those observed in CDC ILINet's data. We also compared the yearly percentage of FNY participants who sought health care for ILI symptoms across geographical areas.

METHODS

We compared the national and regional 2018-2019 ILI activity baselines, calculated using noninfluenza weeks from previous years, for each surveillance data source. We also compared measures of ILI activity across geographical areas during 3 influenza seasons, 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018. Geographical differences in weekly ILI activity within each data source were also assessed using relative mean differences and time series heatmaps. National and regional age-adjusted health care-seeking percentages were calculated for each influenza season by dividing the number of FNY participants who sought medical care for ILI symptoms by the total number of ILI reports within an influenza season. Pearson correlations were used to assess the association between the health care-seeking percentages and baselines for each surveillance data source.

RESULTS

We observed consistent differences in ILI activity across geographical areas for CDC ILINet and athenahealth data. ILI activity for FNY displayed little variation across geographical areas, whereas differences in ILI activity for HealthTweets.org were associated with the total number of tweets within a geographical area. The percentage of FNY participants who sought health care for ILI symptoms differed slightly across geographical areas, and these percentages were positively correlated with CDC ILINet and athenahealth baselines.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that differences in ILI activity across geographical areas as reported by a given surveillance system may not accurately reflect true differences in the prevalence of ILI. Instead, these differences may reflect systematic collection and aggregation biases that are particular to each system and consistent across influenza seasons. These findings are potentially relevant in the real-time analysis of the influenza season and in the definition of unbiased forecast models.

Epidemiological features and trends of influenza incidence in mainland China: A population-based surveillance study from 2005 to 2015

OBJECTIVES

To investigate epidemiological features and trends of influenza incidence with 1,173,640 cases in mainland China from 2005 to 2015.

METHODS

Incidence and mortality data for influenza from 2005 to 2015 were provided by the data-center of China public health science and covered a population of about 1.3 billion people from 31 provinces and regions in mainland China. Joinpoint regression and exploratory spatial data analyses were used to examine the incidence trends from 2005 to 2015.

RESULTS

The first upsurge in influenza cases occurred in 2009, and the highest incidence of influenza occurred in 2014 (15.9045 cases/100,000 people). The average incidence per year from 2009 to 2015 was threefold higher than that from 2005 to 2008 (10.5308 vs 3.4589 cases/100,000 people; incidence rate ratio=3.0446). The joinpoint regression results showed that there was an increasing influenza incidence trend from 2005 to 2015 (annual change in percentage=13.6%, 95%CI 2.2-26.3, p=0.0236). The seasonal pattern analysis showed that influenza typically occurred in winter and spring during each monitoring year, peaking from November to March the next year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study will help governments to make valuable decisions in allocating scarce resources and providing strategies to limit the spread of influenza.

An Integrated Influenza Surveillance Framework Based on National Influenza-Like Illness Incidence and Multiple Hospital Electronic Medical Records for Early Prediction of Influenza Epidemics: Design and Evaluation

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a leading cause of death worldwide and contributes to heavy economic losses to individuals and communities. Therefore, the early prediction of and interventions against influenza epidemics are crucial to reduce mortality and morbidity because of this disease. Similar to other countries, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (TWCDC) has implemented influenza surveillance and reporting systems, which primarily rely on influenza-like illness (ILI) data reported by health care providers, for the early prediction of influenza epidemics. However, these surveillance and reporting systems show at least a 2-week delay in prediction, indicating the need for improvement.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to integrate the TWCDC ILI data with electronic medical records (EMRs) of multiple hospitals in Taiwan. Our ultimate goal was to develop a national influenza trend prediction and reporting tool more accurate and efficient than the current influenza surveillance and reporting systems.

METHODS

First, the influenza expertise team at Taipei Medical University Health Care System (TMUHcS) identified surveillance variables relevant to the prediction of influenza epidemics. Second, we developed a framework for integrating the EMRs of multiple hospitals with the ILI data from the TWCDC website to proactively provide results of influenza epidemic monitoring to hospital infection control practitioners. Third, using the TWCDC ILI data as the gold standard for influenza reporting, we calculated Pearson correlation coefficients to measure the strength of the linear relationship between TMUHcS EMRs and regional and national TWCDC ILI data for 2 weekly time series datasets. Finally, we used the Moving Epidemic Method analyses to evaluate each surveillance variable for its predictive power for influenza epidemics.

RESULTS

Using this framework, we collected the EMRs and TWCDC ILI data of the past 3 influenza seasons (October 2014 to September 2017). On the basis of the EMRs of multiple hospitals, 3 surveillance variables, TMUHcS-ILI, TMUHcS-rapid influenza laboratory tests with positive results (RITP), and TMUHcS-influenza medication use (IMU), which reflected patients with ILI, those with positive results from rapid influenza diagnostic tests, and those treated with antiviral drugs, respectively, showed strong correlations with the TWCDC regional and national ILI data (r=.86-.98). The 2 surveillance variables-TMUHcS-RITP and TMUHcS-IMU-showed predictive power for influenza epidemics 3 to 4 weeks before the increase noted in the TWCDC ILI reports.

CONCLUSIONS

Our framework periodically integrated and compared surveillance data from multiple hospitals and the TWCDC website to maintain a certain prediction quality and proactively provide monitored results. Our results can be extended to other infectious diseases, mitigating the time and effort required for data collection and analysis. Furthermore, this approach may be developed as a cost-effective electronic surveillance tool for the early and accurate prediction of epidemics of influenza and other infectious diseases in densely populated regions and nations.

A systematic review of spatial decision support systems in public health informatics supporting the identification of high risk areas for zoonotic disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Zoonotic diseases account for a substantial portion of infectious disease outbreaks and burden on public health programs to maintain surveillance and preventative measures. Taking advantage of new modeling approaches and data sources have become necessary in an interconnected global community. To facilitate data collection, analysis, and decision-making, the number of spatial decision support systems reported in the last 10 years has increased. This systematic review aims to describe characteristics of spatial decision support systems developed to assist public health officials in the management of zoonotic disease outbreaks.

METHODS

A systematic search of the Google Scholar database was undertaken for published articles written between 2008 and 2018, with no language restriction. A manual search of titles and abstracts using Boolean logic and keyword search terms was undertaken using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data extraction included items such as spatial database management, visualizations, and report generation.

RESULTS

For this review we screened 34 full text articles. Design and reporting quality were assessed, resulting in a final set of 12 articles which were evaluated on proposed interventions and identifying characteristics were described. Multisource data integration, and user centered design were inconsistently applied, though indicated diverse utilization of modeling techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics, data sources, development and modeling techniques implemented in the design of recent SDSS that target zoonotic disease outbreak were described. There are still many challenges to address during the design process to effectively utilize the value of emerging data sources and modeling methods. In the future, development should adhere to comparable standards for functionality and system development such as user input for system requirements, and flexible interfaces to visualize data that exist on different scales. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018110466.