Performance of prediction rules and guidelines in detecting serious bacterial infections among Tanzanian febrile children

External validation of clinical severity scores to guide referral of paediatric acute respiratory infections in resource-limited primary care settings

Accurate and reliable guidelines for referral of children from resource-limited primary care settings are lacking. We identified three practicable paediatric severity scores (the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA), the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, and the modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) and externally validated their performance in young children presenting with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to a primary care clinic located within a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. This secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal birth cohort study consisted of 3010 ARI presentations in children aged ≤ 24 months. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We externally validated the discrimination, calibration, and net-benefit of the scores, and quantified gains in performance that might be expected if they were deployed as simple clinical prediction models, and updated to include nutritional status and respiratory distress. 104/3,010 (3.5%) presentations met the primary outcome. The LqSOFA score demonstrated the best discrimination (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89) and achieved a sensitivity and specificity > 0.80. Converting the scores into clinical prediction models improved performance, resulting in ~ 20% fewer unnecessary referrals and ~ 30-50% fewer children incorrectly managed in the community. The LqSOFA score is a promising triage tool for young children presenting with ARIs in resource-limited primary care settings. Where feasible, deploying the score as a simple clinical prediction model might enable more accurate and nuanced risk stratification, increasing applicability across a wider range of contexts.

Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study

Reliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87-0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10-30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required.

Clinical prediction models for serious infections in children: external validation in ambulatory care

BACKGROUND

Early distinction between mild and serious infections (SI) is challenging in children in ambulatory care. Clinical prediction models (CPMs), developed to aid physicians in clinical decision-making, require broad external validation before clinical use. We aimed to externally validate four CPMs, developed in emergency departments, in ambulatory care.

METHODS

We applied the CPMs in a prospective cohort of acutely ill children presenting to general practices, outpatient paediatric practices or emergency departments in Flanders, Belgium. For two multinomial regression models, Feverkidstool and Craig model, discriminative ability and calibration were assessed, and a model update was performed by re-estimation of coefficients with correction for overfitting. For two risk scores, the SBI score and PAWS, the diagnostic test accuracy was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 8211 children were included, comprising 498 SI and 276 serious bacterial infections (SBI). Feverkidstool had a C-statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.84) with good calibration for pneumonia and 0.74 (0.70-0.79) with poor calibration for other SBI. The Craig model had a C-statistic of 0.80 (0.77-0.83) for pneumonia, 0.75 (0.70-0.80) for complicated urinary tract infections and 0.63 (0.39-0.88) for bacteraemia, with poor calibration. The model update resulted in improved C-statistics for all outcomes and good overall calibration for Feverkidstool and the Craig model. SBI score and PAWS performed extremely weak with sensitivities of 0.12 (0.09-0.15) and 0.32 (0.28-0.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Feverkidstool and the Craig model show good discriminative ability for predicting SBI and a potential for early recognition of SBI, confirming good external validity in a low prevalence setting of SBI. The SBI score and PAWS showed poor diagnostic performance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02024282. Registered on 31 December 2013.

ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite: Development of an electronic clinical decision support algorithm and digital platform for pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income countries

Electronic clinical decision support algorithms (CDSAs) have been developed to address high childhood mortality and inappropriate antibiotic prescription by helping clinicians adhere to guidelines. Previously identified challenges of CDSAs include their limited scope, usability, and outdated clinical content. To address these challenges we developed ePOCT+, a CDSA for the care of pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income settings, and the medical algorithm suite (medAL-suite), a software for the creation and execution of CDSAs. Following the principles of digital development, we aim to describe the process and lessons learnt from the development of ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite. In particular, this work outlines the systematic integrative development process in the design and implementation of these tools required to meet the needs of clinicians to improve uptake and quality of care. We considered the feasibility, acceptability and reliability of clinical signs and symptoms, as well as the diagnostic and prognostic performance of predictors. To assure clinical validity, and appropriateness for the country of implementation the algorithm underwent numerous reviews by clinical experts and health authorities from the implementing countries. The digitalization process involved the creation of medAL-creator, a digital platform which allows clinicians without IT programming skills to easily create the algorithms, and medAL-reader the mobile health (mHealth) application used by clinicians during the consultation. Extensive feasibility tests were done with feedback from end-users of multiple countries to improve the clinical algorithm and medAL-reader software. We hope that the development framework used for developing ePOCT+ will help support the development of other CDSAs, and that the open-source medAL-suite will enable others to easily and independently implement them. Further clinical validation studies are underway in Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Senegal, and India.

Blood biomarkers in early bacterial infection and sepsis diagnostics in feverish young children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

While most feverish children have self-limiting diseases, 5-10% develop a serious and potentially life-threatening bacterial infection (BI). Due to potential risk, prompt recognition of BI and sepsis in the pediatric emergency department (PED) remains a clinical priority. The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of certain cytokines and chemokines separately and in combination with routine blood tests in early BI and sepsis diagnostics at PED.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We prospectively studied children younger than 5 presenting to the PED with fever lasting for under 12 hours with high risk for serious illness. Clinical data, routine blood analysis, and inflammatory cytokine and chemokine panels were evaluated for their diagnostic abilities. Two separate analyses were carried out on the patients' data: one contrasting BI and viral infection (VI) groups, the other comparing septic and non-septic patients.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 70 patients (40% with BI). IL-2 was found to be the most specific biomarker to identify BI with specificity of 100%. The best discriminative ability was demonstrated by combining IL-2, IL-6, CRP, WBC, and neutrophil count: AUC 0.942 (95% Cl 0.859-0.984). IL-10 exhibited a greater AUC (0.837. 95% CI: 0.730-0.915 p<0.05) than CRP (0.807. 95% CI: 0.695-0.895 p<0.05) when predicting sepsis and showed high specificity (98%) and moderate sensitivity (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

IL-6 and IL-2 could increase the diagnostic ability of routine blood tests for predicting BI, as IL-10 raises specificity for recognizing sepsis in the early hours of disease onset.

Anticipating the future: prognostic tools as a complementary strategy to improve care for patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

In low-income and middle-income countries, most patients with febrile illnesses present to peripheral levels of the health system where diagnostic capacity is very limited. In these contexts, accurate risk stratification can be particularly impactful, helping to guide allocation of scarce resources to ensure timely and tailored care. However, reporting of prognostic research is often imprecise and few prognostic tests or algorithms are translated into clinical practice.

Here, we review the often-conflated concepts of prognosis and diagnosis, with a focus on patients with febrile illnesses. Drawing on a recent global stakeholder consultation, we apply these concepts to propose three use-cases for prognostic tools in the management of febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings: (1) guiding referrals from the community to higher-level care; (2) informing resource allocation for patients admitted to hospital and (3) identifying patients who may benefit from closer follow-up post-hospital discharge. We explore the practical implications for new technologies and reflect on the challenges and knowledge gaps that must be addressed before this approach could be incorporated into routine care settings.

Our intention is that these use-cases, alongside other recent initiatives, will help to promote a harmonised yet contextualised approach for prognostic research in febrile illness. We argue that this is especially important given the heterogeneous settings in which care is often provided for patients with febrile illnesses living in low-income and middle-income countries.

Tanzanian primary healthcare workers' experiences of antibiotic prescription and understanding of antibiotic resistance in common childhood infections: a qualitative phenomenographic study

Background

Antibiotic resistance is a threat to global child health. Primary healthcare workers play a key role in antibiotic stewardship in the community, but few studies in low-income countries have described their experiences of initiating antibiotic treatment in children. Thus, the present study aimed to describe primary healthcare workers’ experiences of antibiotic prescription for children under 5 years of age and their conceptions of antibiotic resistance in Northern Tanzania.

Methods

A qualitative study involving individual in-depth interviews with 20 prescribing primary healthcare workers in Moshi urban and rural districts, Northern Tanzania, was performed in 2019. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, translated from Kiswahili into English and analysed according to the phenomenographic approach.

Findings

Four conceptual themes emerged during the analysis; conceptions in relation to the prescriber, the mother and child, other healthcare actors and in relation to outcome. The healthcare workers relied mainly on clinical examination and medical history provided by the mother to determine the need for antibiotics. Confidence in giving advice concerning non-antibiotic treatment varied among the participants and expectations of antibiotic treatment were perceived to be common among the mothers. Antibiotic resistance was mainly perceived as a problem for the individual patient who was misusing the antibiotics.

Conclusions

To increase rational antibiotic prescription, an awareness needs to be raised among Tanzanian primary healthcare workers of the threat of antibiotic resistance, not only to a few individuals, but to public health. Guidelines on childhood illnesses should be updated with advice concerning symptomatic treatment when antibiotics are not necessary, to support rational prescribing practices and promote trust in the clinician and mother relationship.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13756-021-00952-5.

Extensive Antibiotic and Antimalarial Prescription Rate among Children with Acute Febrile Diseases in the Lake Victoria Region, Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

Acute mosquito-borne febrile diseases pose a threat to children in the Sub-Saharan-Africa with ∼272 000 children dying worldwide from malaria in 2018. Although the awareness for malaria in this area has increased due to improved health education, the apparent decline of actual malaria cases has not affected clinical practice significantly. This study collected clinical and epidemiologic data of children presenting with acute febrile diseases in order delineate their diagnostic and therapeutic management.

METHODS

A hospital-based cross-sectional clinical study was conducted at the Sekou Toure Regional Referral Hospital in Tanzania. Children between 1 month and 12 years of age with an axillary temperature ≥ 37.5°C were recruited from August 2016 to December 2016. Children received full clinical examination. In addition, file data about diagnostics and treatment were collected and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) were performed. Confirmatory malaria polymerase chain reaction was performed from dry blood spots.

RESULTS

From 1381 children presented in the pediatric outpatient department, 133 met the inclusion criteria. Out of 133 febrile children, 10.5% were malaria positive. Treatment data indicate the prescription of antimalarials in 35.3% and antibiotics in 63.9% of the children with an overlap of 24.1% receiving both. Despite a negative mRDT, 36 patients received antimalarials.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study confirm a significant decline of malaria cases in the Lake Victoria region. The discrepancy between the valuable results provided by mRDTs and the high prescription rates of antibiotics and antimalarials call for an enforced diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm.

LAY SUMMARY

The aim of the study was to take a closer look at reported cases of febrile diseases in the Lake Victoria region and assess the relationship between clinical as well as diagnostic findings and the resulting therapeutic concept. Based on these findings the prescription rate of antimalarial and antibiotic drugs was analyzed. The results showed an overall high prescription rate of antimalarials and antibiotics in both diagnosed malaria cases and cases with diagnosed bacterial infections.Not only with regards to the possible side effects of these medications but also keeping in mind the apparent misuse of resources this practice poses a serious burden to the health care system in this low resource country.

Prediction of disease severity in young children presenting with acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings: a protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04285021.

Clinical prediction models to diagnose neonatal sepsis: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal sepsis is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Diagnosis is often difficult due to non-specific clinical features and the unavailability of laboratory tests in many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Clinical prediction models have the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy and rationalise antibiotic usage in neonatal units, which may result in reduced antimicrobial resistance and improved neonatal outcomes. In this paper, we outline our scoping review protocol to map the literature concerning clinical prediction models to diagnose neonatal sepsis. We aim to provide an overview of existing models and evidence underlying their use and compare prediction models between high-income countries and LMICs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The protocol was developed with reference to recommendations by the Joanna Briggs Institute. Searches will include six electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Global Index Medicus and the Cochrane Library) supplemented by hand searching of reference lists and citation analysis on included studies. No time period restrictions will be applied but only studies published in English or Spanish will be included. Screening and data extraction will be performed independently by two reviewers, with a third reviewer used to resolve conflicts. The results will be reported by narrative synthesis in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The nature of the scoping review methodology means that this study does not require ethical approval. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, as well as through engagement with peers and relevant stakeholders.

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Parents Self-Medicating Under-Fives with Antibiotics in Bagamoyo District Council, Tanzania: a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Self-medication with antibiotics (SMA) is a global problem. This extends to medication of under-fives by their parents. In particular, there is currently insufficient information for this problem.

PURPOSE

To determine the proportion and factors associated with medication of under-fives with antibiotics by their parents.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study among parents/caregivers of under-fives in 30 hamlets/streets of Bagamoyo District Council, in Tanzania was conducted between July and August, 2019. Respondents were the under-fives' parents/caregivers aged at least 18 years selected from households using probability proportional to a size cluster-sampling method. Respondents were required to report whether or not the under-fives had been unwell within the past 12 months and to describe the type or specific name of any medicine administered to their child. We used descriptive and analytical procedures to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The study included 730 parents/caregivers of under-fives. Their mean age was 32.2 (SD=7.4) years. The majority 668 (91.5%) were biological mothers and 574 (78.6%) having completed primary education. The proportion of parental SMA to under-fives was 47.7% (95% CI=43.7, 51.8). Knowledge on the appropriate use of antibiotics among parents was low. The most commonly used antibiotic was amoxicillin, 181 (62.0%). Independent factors associated with parental SMA to under-fives were average household income, distance to the nearest health facility, knowledge about use of antibiotics and the parent/caregiver's awareness of prescription-only medicines (POMs).

CONCLUSION

Since the prevalence of SMA by parents to under-fives in Bagamoyo District is high, there is a need for health systems to enhance those measures that would control the sale of antibiotics without prescriptions. In addition, more than half of all study participants have a minimal understanding of the use of antibiotics and are unaware of POMs. Findings indicate a need to have routine continuous health education at the community level about the use of antibiotics.