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Limaheluw J, Dollmann S, Folpmers S, Beltrán Beut L, Lazarakou A, Vermeulen LC, de Roda Husman AM. Associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19: a global scoping review. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1183706. [PMID: 39091528 PMCID: PMC11291467 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1183706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Many respiratory viruses and their associated diseases are sensitive to meteorological factors. For SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, evidence on this sensitivity is inconsistent. Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 epidemiology can help to improve pandemic preparedness. Objectives This review aimed to examine the recent evidence about the relation between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Methods We conducted a global scoping review of peer-reviewed studies published from January 2020 up to January 2023 about the associations between temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Results From 9,156 initial records, we included 474 relevant studies. Experimental studies on SARS-CoV-2 provided consistent evidence that higher temperatures and solar radiation negatively affect virus viability. Studies on COVID-19 (epidemiology) were mostly observational and provided less consistent evidence. Several studies considered interactions between meteorological factors or other variables such as demographics or air pollution. None of the publications included all determinants holistically. Discussion The association between short-term meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 dynamics is complex. Interactions between environmental and social components need further consideration. A more integrated research approach can provide valuable insights to predict the dynamics of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse Limaheluw
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sophia Dollmann
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sofia Folpmers
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Lola Beltrán Beut
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Afroditi Lazarakou
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Lucie C. Vermeulen
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Ana Maria de Roda Husman
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Lu M. Is aromatic plants environmental health engineering (APEHE) a leverage point of the earth system? Heliyon 2024; 10:e30322. [PMID: 38756557 PMCID: PMC11096952 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2024] [Revised: 03/30/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
It is important to note that every ecological niche in an ecosystem is significant. This study aims to assess the importance of medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) in the ecosystem from multiple perspectives. A primary model of Aromatic Plants Environmental Health Engineering (APEHE) has been designed and constructed. The APEHE system was used to collect aerosol compounds, and it was experimentally verified that these compounds have the potential to impact human health by binding to AKT1 as the primary target, and MMP9 and TLR4 as secondary targets. These compounds may indirectly affect human immunity by reversing drug resistance in drug-resistant bacteria in the nasal cavity. This is mainly achieved through combined mutations in sdhA, scrA, and PEP. Our findings are based on Network pharmacology and molecular binding, drug-resistance rescue experiments, as well as combined transcriptomics and metabolomics experiments. It is suggested that APEHE may have direct or indirect effects on human health. We demonstrate APEHE's numerous potential benefits, such as attenuation and elimination of airborne microorganisms in the environment, enhancing carbon and nitrogen storage in terrestrial ecosystems, promoting the formation of low-level clouds and strengthening the virtuous cycle of Earth's ecosystems. APEHE also supports the development of transdisciplinary technologies, including terpene energy production. It facilitates the creation of a sustainable circular economy and provides additional economic advantages through urban optimisation, as well as fresh insights into areas such as the habitability of other planets. APEHE has the potential to serve as a leverage point for the Earth system. We have created a new research direction.
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Affiliation(s)
- MengYu Lu
- HEFEI XIAODOUKOU HEALTH TECH CO LTD, China
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Lin WY, Lin HH, Chang SA, Chen Wang TC, Chen JC, Chen YS. Do Weather Conditions Still Have an Impact on the COVID-19 Pandemic? An Observation of the Mid-2022 COVID-19 Peak in Taiwan. Microorganisms 2024; 12:947. [PMID: 38792777 PMCID: PMC11123934 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms12050947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 05/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/06/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, the role of weather conditions in influencing transmission has been unclear, with results varying across different studies. Given the changes in border policies and the higher vaccination rates compared to earlier conditions, this study aimed to reassess the impact of weather on COVID-19, focusing on local climate effects. We analyzed daily COVID-19 case data and weather factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and a diurnal temperature range from 1 March to 15 August 2022 across six regions in Taiwan. This study found a positive correlation between maximum daily temperature and relative humidity with new COVID-19 cases, whereas wind speed and diurnal temperature range were negatively correlated. Additionally, a significant positive correlation was identified between the unease environmental condition factor (UECF, calculated as RH*Tmax/WS), the kind of Climate Factor Complex (CFC), and confirmed cases. The findings highlight the influence of local weather conditions on COVID-19 transmission, suggesting that such factors can alter environmental comfort and human behavior, thereby affecting disease spread. We also introduced the Fire-Qi Period concept to explain the cyclic climatic variations influencing infectious disease outbreaks globally. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering both local and global climatic effects on infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan-Yi Lin
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 204201, Taiwan;
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333323, Taiwan; (H.-H.L.); (S.-A.C.)
- Taiwan Huangdi-Neijing Medical Practice Association (THMPA), Taoyuan 330032, Taiwan
| | - Hao-Hsuan Lin
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333323, Taiwan; (H.-H.L.); (S.-A.C.)
- Taiwan Huangdi-Neijing Medical Practice Association (THMPA), Taoyuan 330032, Taiwan
- Department of Chinese Acupuncture and Traumatology, Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 333008, Taiwan
| | - Shih-An Chang
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333323, Taiwan; (H.-H.L.); (S.-A.C.)
- Taiwan Huangdi-Neijing Medical Practice Association (THMPA), Taoyuan 330032, Taiwan
- Department of Chinese Acupuncture and Traumatology, Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 333008, Taiwan
| | - Tai-Chi Chen Wang
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan 320317, Taiwan;
| | - Juei-Chao Chen
- Department of Statistics and Information Science, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan;
| | - Yu-Sheng Chen
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333323, Taiwan; (H.-H.L.); (S.-A.C.)
- Taiwan Huangdi-Neijing Medical Practice Association (THMPA), Taoyuan 330032, Taiwan
- Department of Chinese Acupuncture and Traumatology, Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 333008, Taiwan
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Hussain MRA, Shaba SSE, Bunthen E, Eity KF, Roshid MM, Kuddus MA. The Dynamics of COVID-19 in Hiroshima Prefecture Compared to Japan and Its Association With Meteorological Factors: A Comparative Analysis. Cureus 2024; 16:e57708. [PMID: 38711698 PMCID: PMC11071692 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.57708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Despite the implementation of countermeasures and mass vaccination programs, the COVID-19 pandemic incidence was a vital public health concern. This study aimed to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 cases and assess the association of COVID-19 pandemic epidemiological data with meteorological factors in Hiroshima Prefecture compared to Japan. Methods We analyzed COVID-19 pandemic data in Japan's Hiroshima Prefecture from January 16, 2020, to May 9, 2023. Meteorological factors were examined at different time frames, and Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for COVID-19 variables and variants based on GISAID whole genome analysis. Results Hiroshima Prefecture reported 816,788 COVID-19 cases and 1,371 fatalities, with a city-to-rural case ratio of 0.97:1. Infection rates were 17.42% for Japan and 15.83% for Hiroshima. Gender-wise, the ratio was 99:1, and the 30-39 age group in Hiroshima had the highest cases (15.5%). Among all meteorological factors, daily and 14-day average wind speed showed a weak correlation with incidence (-0.1954, P < 0.01; 0.3669 P < 0.01), fatalities (-0.1148, P < 0.01; -0.2232 P < 0.01), and incidence rate (-0.2042, P < 0.01; -0.3751, P < 0.01), respectively. Clade GRA was most frequent (39.7%), and among 61 variants, B.1.1.7, AY.29, and BA.1.1.2 were predominant. Precipitation was associated significantly with the Alpha variant (0.3373, P<0.01), while the Delta variant (0.2934, <0.05) weakly correlated with humidity. Conclusion COVID-19 pandemic trends in Hiroshima Prefecture paralleled Japan's, yet with lower incidence and fatalities compared to most prefectures. Significant associations were found between meteorological factors and COVID-19 metrics, including incidence, fatalities, incidence rate, and mutations in Hiroshima.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Razeen Ashraf Hussain
- Epidemiology and Research, Asian Institute of Disability and Development, Dhaka, BGD
- Epidemiology and Public Health, National Liver Foundation of Bangladesh, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Syeda Sabrina Easmin Shaba
- Public Health and Health Policy, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, JPN
| | - E Bunthen
- Epidemiology and Public Health, National Payment Certification Agency, Ministry of Economic and Finance, Phnom Penh, KHM
| | | | - Md Marufur Roshid
- Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, JPN
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Haas M, Lucic M, Pichler F, Brkic FF, Parzefall T, Riss D, Liu DT. Presentation Rates for Acute Pharyngitis in the Emergency Room Are Influenced by Extreme Weather Events. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 2024; 170:795-803. [PMID: 37943865 DOI: 10.1002/ohn.581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 06/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Extreme weather events are becoming more prevalent with the increasing pace of climate change. These events negatively impact human health and put considerable strain on health care resources, including emergency departments. Within otolaryngology, acute pharyngitis is a common reason for emergency room visits (ERV). Therefore, we aimed to investigate the impact of extreme meteorological conditions on ERV rates related to acute pharyngitis. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective time-series study. SETTING ERVs related to acute pharyngitis (n = 1511) were identified at a tertiary care hospital in Vienna, Austria, between 2015 and 2018. METHODS The effects of single-day and prolonged (3-day) extreme weather events on ERVs were analyzed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (cRR) were calculated over a lag period of 14 days. RR refers to the risk for pharyngitis-related ERV at extreme conditions (1st, 5th, 95th, or 99th percentile) compared to the risk at median conditions. RESULTS Same-day RR (lag0) was elevated more than 3-fold after prolonged extremely low mean temperatures (P = .028). Furthermore, same-day RR after single-day and prolonged extremely high relative humidity was elevated by 51% (P = .024) and 46% (P = .036), respectively. Significant delayed effects on cRR were observed for extreme mean temperatures, relative humidity, and mean wind speeds within 8 days and for extreme atmospheric pressure within 14 days. CONCLUSION Extreme weather events impact ERV rates for acute pharyngitis. Extremely low temperatures, high relative humidity, high atmospheric pressure, and low and high wind speeds were risk-promoting factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Markus Haas
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mateo Lucic
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Franziska Pichler
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Faris F Brkic
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Thomas Parzefall
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Dominik Riss
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - David T Liu
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Rybarczyk Y, Zalakeviciute R, Ortiz-Prado E. Causal effect of air pollution and meteorology on the COVID-19 pandemic: A convergent cross mapping approach. Heliyon 2024; 10:e25134. [PMID: 38322928 PMCID: PMC10844283 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Environmental factors have been suspected to influence the propagation and lethality of COVID-19 in the global population. However, most of the studies have been limited to correlation analyses and did not use specific methods to address the dynamic of the causal relationship between the virus and its external drivers. This work focuses on inferring and understanding the causal effect of critical air pollutants and meteorological parameters on COVID-19 by using an Empirical Dynamic Modeling approach called Convergent Cross Mapping. This technique allowed us to identify the time-delayed causation and the sign of interactions. Considering its remarkable urban environment and mortality rate during the pandemic, Quito, Ecuador, was chosen as a case study. Our results show that both urban air pollution and meteorology have a causal impact on COVID-19. Even if the strength and the sign of the causality vary over time, a general trend can be drawn. NO2, SO2, CO and PM2.5 have a positive causation for COVID-19 infections (ρ > 0.35 and ∂ > 9.1). Contrary to current knowledge, this study shows a rapid effect of pollution on COVID-19 cases (1 < lag days <24) and a negative impact of O3 on COVID-19-related deaths (ρ = 0.53 and ∂ = -0.3). Regarding the meteorology, temperature (ρ = 0.24 and ∂ = -0.4) and wind speed (ρ = 0.34 and ∂ = -3.9) tend to mitigate the epidemiological consequences of SARS-CoV-2, whereas relative humidity seems to increase the excess deaths (ρ = 0.4 and ∂ = 0.05). A causal network is proposed to synthesize the interactions between the studied variables and to provide a simple model to support the management of coronavirus outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yves Rybarczyk
- School of Information and Engineering, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
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Colston JM, Hinson P, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Badr HS, Kerr GH, Gardner LM, Martin DN, Quispe AM, Schiaffino F, Kosek MN, Zaitchik BF. Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis. IJID REGIONS 2023; 6:29-41. [PMID: 36437857 PMCID: PMC9675637 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors. Methods Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted. Findings Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000 kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance. Interpretation Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures. Funding NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh M. Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Patrick Hinson
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, VA, USA
| | | | - Yen Ting Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Hamada S. Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Gaige H. Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lauren M. Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David N. Martin
- Claude Moore Health Sciences Library, University of Virginia School of Medicine, VA, USA
| | | | - Francesca Schiaffino
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Margaret N. Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
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Silva PGD, Nascimento MSJ, Sousa SIV, Mesquita JR. SARS-CoV-2 in outdoor air following the third wave lockdown release, Portugal, 2021. J Med Microbiol 2023; 72. [PMID: 36763082 DOI: 10.1099/jmm.0.001659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Aiming to contribute with more data on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) in outdoor environments, we performed air sampling in outdoor terraces from restaurants in three major cities of Portugal in April 2021, following the third wave lockdown release in the country. Air samples (n=19) were collected in 19 restaurant terraces during lunch time. Each air sample was collected using a Coriolis Compact air sampler, followed by RNA extraction and real-time quantitative PCR for the detection of viral RNA. Viral viability was also assessed through RNAse pre-treatment of samples. Only one of the 19 air samples was positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with 7337 gene copies m-3 for the genomic region N2, with no viable virus in this sample. The low number of positive samples found in this study is not surprising, as sampling took place in outdoor settings where air circulation is optimal, and aerosols are rapidly dispersed by the air currents. These results are consistent with previous reports stating that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in outdoor spaces is low, although current evidence shows an association of exposures in settings where drinking and eating is possible on-site with an increased risk in acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, the minimal infectious dose for SARS-CoV-2 still needs to be determined so that the real risk of infection in different environments can be accurately established.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priscilla Gomes da Silva
- ICBAS - School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Porto University, Porto, Portugal.,Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit), Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.,Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal.,LEPABE - Laboratory for Process Engineering, Environment, Biotechnology and Energy, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.,ALiCE - Associate Laboratory in Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Sofia I V Sousa
- LEPABE - Laboratory for Process Engineering, Environment, Biotechnology and Energy, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.,ALiCE - Associate Laboratory in Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - João R Mesquita
- ICBAS - School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Porto University, Porto, Portugal.,Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit), Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.,Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
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Tang SGH, Hadi MHH, Arsad SR, Ker PJ, Ramanathan S, Afandi NAM, Afzal MM, Yaw MW, Krishnan PS, Chen CP, Tiong SK. Prerequisite for COVID-19 Prediction: A Review on Factors Affecting the Infection Rate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:12997. [PMID: 36293576 PMCID: PMC9602751 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192012997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Revised: 09/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Since the year 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as the dominant topic of discussion in the public and research domains. Intensive research has been carried out on several aspects of COVID-19, including vaccines, its transmission mechanism, detection of COVID-19 infection, and its infection rate and factors. The awareness of the public related to the COVID-19 infection factors enables the public to adhere to the standard operating procedures, while a full elucidation on the correlation of different factors to the infection rate facilitates effective measures to minimize the risk of COVID-19 infection by policy makers and enforcers. Hence, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive and analytical review of different factors affecting the COVID-19 infection rate. Furthermore, this review analyses factors which directly and indirectly affect the COVID-19 infection risk, such as physical distance, ventilation, face masks, meteorological factor, socioeconomic factor, vaccination, host factor, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the availability of COVID-19 testing. Critical analysis was performed for the different factors by providing quantitative and qualitative studies. Lastly, the challenges of correlating each infection risk factor to the predicted risk of COVID-19 infection are discussed, and recommendations for further research works and interventions are outlined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shirley Gee Hoon Tang
- Center for Toxicology and Health Risk Studies (CORE), Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda Abdul Aziz, Kuala Lumpur 50300, Malaysia
| | - Muhamad Haziq Hasnul Hadi
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Siti Rosilah Arsad
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Pin Jern Ker
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Santhi Ramanathan
- Faculty of Business, Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, Malacca 75450, Malaysia
| | - Nayli Aliah Mohd Afandi
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Madihah Mohd Afzal
- Center for Toxicology and Health Risk Studies (CORE), Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda Abdul Aziz, Kuala Lumpur 50300, Malaysia
| | - Mei Wyin Yaw
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Prajindra Sankar Krishnan
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Chai Phing Chen
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
| | - Sieh Kiong Tiong
- Institute of Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical & Electronics, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Malaysia
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10
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Zhu P, Tan X. Evaluating the effectiveness of Hong Kong's border restriction policy in reducing COVID-19 infections. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:803. [PMID: 35449094 PMCID: PMC9023047 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13234-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
This study evaluates the effectiveness of Hong Kong's strict border restrictions with mainland China in curbing the transmission of COVID-19. Combining big data from Baidu Population Migration with traditional meteorological data and census data for over 200 Chinese cities, we utilize an advanced quantitative approach, namely synthetic control modeling, to produce a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong" without a strict border restriction policy. We then simulate infection trends under the hypothetical scenarios and compare them to actual infection numbers. Our counterfactual synthetic control model demonstrates a lower number of COVID-19 infections than the actual scenario, where strict border restrictions with mainland China were implemented from February 8 to March 6, 2020. Moreover, the second synthetic control model, which assumes a border reopen on 7 May 2020 demonstrates nonpositive effects of extending the border restriction policy on preventing and controlling infections. We conclude that the border restriction policy and its further extension may not be useful in containing the spread of COVID-19 when the virus is already circulating in the local community. Given the substantial economic and social costs, and as precautionary measures against COVID-19 becomes the new normal, countries can consider reopening borders with neighbors who have COVID-19 under control. Governments also need to closely monitor the changing epidemic situations in other countries in order to make prompt and sensible amendments to their border restriction policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pengyu Zhu
- Associate Professor Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China.
| | - Xinying Tan
- PhD Student in Public Policy, Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China
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