Different ODE models of tumor growth can deliver similar results

The prognostic potential of mammographic growth rate of invasive breast cancer in the Nijmegen breast cancer screening cohort

OBJECTIVES

Insight into the aggressiveness of potential breast cancers found in screening may optimize recall decisions. Specific growth rate (SGR), measured on mammograms, may provide valuable prognostic information. This study addresses the association of SGR with prognostic factors and overall survival in patients with invasive carcinoma of no special type (NST) from a screened population.

METHODS

In this historic cohort study, 293 women with NST were identified from all participants in the Nijmegen screening program (2003-2007). Information on clinicopathological factors was retrieved from patient files and follow-up on vital status through municipalities. On consecutive mammograms, tumor volumes were estimated. After comparing five growth functions, SGR was calculated using the best-fitting function. Regression and multivariable survival analyses described associations between SGR and prognostic factors as well as overall survival.

RESULTS

Each one standard deviation increase in SGR was associated with an increase in the Nottingham prognostic index by 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21-0.46]. Each one standard deviation increase in SGR increased the odds of a tumor with an unfavorable subtype (based on histologic grade and hormone receptors; odds ratio 2.14 [95% CI: 1.45-3.15]) and increased the odds of diagnosis as an interval cancer (versus screen-detected; odds ratio 1.57 [95% CI: 1.20-2.06]). After a median of 12.4 years of follow-up, 78 deaths occurred. SGR was not associated with overall survival (hazard ratio 1.12 [95% CI: 0.87-1.43]).

CONCLUSIONS

SGR may indicate prognostically relevant differences in tumor aggressiveness if serial mammograms are available. A potential association with cause-specific survival could not be determined and is of interest for future research.

On the possibility of engineering social evolution in microfluidic environments

Many species of microbes cooperate by producing public goods from which they collectively benefit. However, these populations are under the risk of being taken over by cheating mutants that do not contribute to the pool of public goods. Here we present theoretical findings that address how the social evolution of microbes can be manipulated by external perturbations to inhibit or promote the fixation of cheaters. To control social evolution, we determine the effects of fluid-dynamical properties such as flow rate or domain geometry. We also study the social evolutionary consequences of introducing beneficial or harmful chemicals at steady state and in a time-dependent fashion. We show that by modulating the flow rate and by applying pulsed chemical signals, we can modulate the spatial structure and dynamics of the population in a way that can select for more or less cooperative microbial populations.

Modeling tumor growth using fractal calculus: Insights into tumor dynamics

Important concepts like fractal calculus and fractal analysis, the sum of squared residuals, and Aikaike's information criterion must be thoroughly understood in order to correctly fit cancer-related data using the proposed models. The fractal growth models employed in this work are classified in three main categories: Sigmoidal growth models (Logistic, Gompertz, and Richards models), Power Law growth model, and Exponential growth models (Exponential and Exponential-Lineal models)". We fitted the data, computed the sum of squared residuals, and determined Aikaike's information criteria using Matlab and the web tool WebPlotDigitizer. In addition, the research investigates "double-size cancer" in the fractal temporal dimension with respect to various mathematical models.

Mathematical models of cystic fibrosis as a systemic disease

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is widely known as a disease of the lung, even though it is in truth a systemic disease, whose symptoms typically manifest in gastrointestinal dysfunction first. CF ultimately impairs not only the pancreas and intestine but also the lungs, gonads, liver, kidneys, bones, and the cardiovascular system. It is caused by one of several mutations in the gene of the epithelial ion channel protein CFTR. Intense research and improved antimicrobial treatments during the past eight decades have steadily increased the predicted life expectancy of a person with CF (pwCF) from a few weeks to over 50 years. Moreover, several drugs ameliorating the sequelae of the disease have become available in recent years, and notable treatments of the root cause of the disease have recently generated substantial improvements in health for some but not all pwCF. Yet, numerous fundamental questions remain unanswered. Complicating CF, for instance in the lung, is the fact that the associated insufficient chloride secretion typically perturbs the electrochemical balance across epithelia and, in the airways, leads to the accumulation of thick, viscous mucus and mucus plaques that cannot be cleared effectively and provide a rich breeding ground for a spectrum of bacterial and fungal communities. The subsequent infections often become chronic and respond poorly to antibiotic treatments, with outcomes sometimes only weakly correlated with the drug susceptibility of the target pathogen. Furthermore, in contrast to rapidly resolved acute infections with a single target pathogen, chronic infections commonly involve multi-species bacterial communities, called "infection microbiomes," that develop their own ecological and evolutionary dynamics. It is presently impossible to devise mathematical models of CF in its entirety, but it is feasible to design models for many of the distinct drivers of the disease. Building upon these growing yet isolated modeling efforts, we discuss in the following the feasibility of a multi-scale modeling framework, known as template-and-anchor modeling, that allows the gradual integration of refined sub-models with different granularity. The article first reviews the most important biomedical aspects of CF and subsequently describes mathematical modeling approaches that already exist or have the potential to deepen our understanding of the multitude aspects of the disease and their interrelationships. The conceptual ideas behind the approaches proposed here do not only pertain to CF but are translatable to other systemic diseases. This article is categorized under: Congenital Diseases > Computational Models.

Data-driven spatio-temporal modelling of glioblastoma

Mathematical oncology provides unique and invaluable insights into tumour growth on both the microscopic and macroscopic levels. This review presents state-of-the-art modelling techniques and focuses on their role in understanding glioblastoma, a malignant form of brain cancer. For each approach, we summarize the scope, drawbacks and assets. We highlight the potential clinical applications of each modelling technique and discuss the connections between the mathematical models and the molecular and imaging data used to inform them. By doing so, we aim to prime cancer researchers with current and emerging computational tools for understanding tumour progression. By providing an in-depth picture of the different modelling techniques, we also aim to assist researchers who seek to build and develop their own models and the associated inference frameworks. Our article thus strikes a unique balance. On the one hand, we provide a comprehensive overview of the available modelling techniques and their applications, including key mathematical expressions. On the other hand, the content is accessible to mathematicians and biomedical scientists alike to accommodate the interdisciplinary nature of cancer research.

Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of image-informed tumor habitats in a murine model of glioma

Tumors exhibit high molecular, phenotypic, and physiological heterogeneity. In this effort, we employ quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to capture this heterogeneity through imaging-based subregions or "habitats" in a murine model of glioma. We then demonstrate the ability to model and predict the growth of the habitats using coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in the presence and absence of radiotherapy. Female Wistar rats (N = 21) were inoculated intracranially with 10⁶ C6 glioma cells, a subset of which received 20 Gy (N = 5) or 40 Gy (N = 8) of radiation. All rats underwent diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI at up to seven time points. All MRI data at each visit were subsequently clustered using k-means to identify physiological tumor habitats. A family of four models consisting of three coupled ODEs were developed and calibrated to the habitat time series of control and treated rats and evaluated for predictive capability. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection, and the normalized sum-of-square-error (SSE) was used to evaluate goodness-of-fit in model calibration and prediction. Three tumor habitats with significantly different imaging data characteristics (p < 0.05) were identified: high-vascularity high-cellularity, low-vascularity high-cellularity, and low-vascularity low-cellularity. Model selection resulted in a five-parameter model whose predictions of habitat dynamics yielded SSEs that were similar to the SSEs from the calibrated model. It is thus feasible to mathematically describe habitat dynamics in a preclinical model of glioma using biology-based ODEs, showing promise for forecasting heterogeneous tumor behavior.

“Song of Life”: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Biographical Music Therapy in Palliative Care by the EMW-TOPSIS Method

The “Song of Life (SOL)” is a kind of music therapy in palliative care for addressing emotional and existential needs in terminally ill patients nearing the end of life. Few previous studies focus on objective data analysis methods to validate the effectiveness of psychotherapy therapy for patients’ overall state. This article combines the entropy weighting method (EWM) and the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method to evaluate the effectiveness of SOL music therapy and the treatment satisfaction of the patients and family members. Firstly, the collaborative filtering algorithm (CFA) machine learning algorithm is used to predict the missing ratings a patient might have given to a variable. Secondly, the EWM determines the weights of quality of life, spiritual well-being, ego-integrity, overall quality of life, and momentary distress. Thirdly, the EWM method is applied for the TOPSIS evaluation model to evaluate the patient’s state pre- and post-intervention. Finally, we obtain the state change in patients and recognition based on the feedback questionnaire. The multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) comprehensive evaluation method objectively validated the overall effectiveness of SOL music therapy. Based on MCDM method, we provide a new approach for judging the overall effect of psychological intervention and accurately recommend psychotherapy that fits the symptoms of psychological disorders.

Combining Mechanisms of Growth Arrest in Solid Tumours: A Mathematical Investigation

The processes underpinning solid tumour growth involve the interactions between various healthy and tumour tissue components and the vasculature, and can be affected in different ways by cancer treatment. In particular, the growth-limiting mechanisms at play may influence tumour responses to treatment. In this paper, we propose a simple ordinary differential equation model of solid tumour growth to investigate how tumour-specific mechanisms of growth arrest may affect tumour response to different combination cancer therapies. We consider the interactions of tumour cells with the physical space in which they proliferate and a nutrient supplied by the tumour vasculature, with the aim of representing two distinct growth arrest mechanisms. More specifically, we wish to consider growth arrest due to (1) nutrient deficiency, which corresponds to balancing cell proliferation and death rates, and (2) competition for space, which corresponds to cessation of proliferation without cell death. We perform numerical simulations of the model and a steady-state analysis to determine the possible tumour growth scenarios described by the model. We find that there are three distinct growth regimes: the nutrient- and spatially limited regimes and a bi-stable regime, in which both growth arrest mechanisms are simultaneously active. Thus, the proposed model has the features required to investigate and distinguish tumour responses to different cancer treatments.

Constructing and analysing dynamic models with modelbase v1.2.3: a software update

BACKGROUND

Computational mathematical models of biological and biomedical systems have been successfully applied to advance our understanding of various regulatory processes, metabolic fluxes, effects of drug therapies, and disease evolution and transmission. Unfortunately, despite community efforts leading to the development of SBML and the BioModels database, many published models have not been fully exploited, largely due to a lack of proper documentation or the dependence on proprietary software. To facilitate the reuse and further development of systems biology and systems medicine models, an open-source toolbox that makes the overall process of model construction more consistent, understandable, transparent, and reproducible is desired.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We provide an update on the development of modelbase, a free, expandable Python package for constructing and analysing ordinary differential equation-based mathematical models of dynamic systems. It provides intuitive and unified methods to construct and solve these systems. Significantly expanded visualisation methods allow for convenient analysis of the structural and dynamic properties of models. After specifying reaction stoichiometries and rate equations modelbase can automatically assemble the associated system of differential equations. A newly provided library of common kinetic rate laws reduces the repetitiveness of the computer programming code. modelbase is also fully compatible with SBML. Previous versions provided functions for the automatic construction of networks for isotope labelling studies. Now, using user-provided label maps, modelbase v1.2.3 streamlines the expansion of classic models to their isotope-specific versions. Finally, the library of previously published models implemented in modelbase is growing continuously. Ranging from photosynthesis to tumour cell growth to viral infection evolution, all these models are now available in a transparent, reusable and unified format through modelbase.

CONCLUSION

With this new Python software package, which is written in currently one of the most popular programming languages, the user can develop new models and actively profit from the work of others. modelbase enables reproducing and replicating models in a consistent, tractable and expandable manner. Moreover, the expansion of models to their isotopic label-specific versions enables simulating label propagation, thus providing quantitative information regarding network topology and metabolic fluxes.

Bayesian Information-Theoretic Calibration of Radiotherapy Sensitivity Parameters for Informing Effective Scanning Protocols in Cancer

With new advancements in technology, it is now possible to collect data for a variety of different metrics describing tumor growth, including tumor volume, composition, and vascularity, among others. For any proposed model of tumor growth and treatment, we observe large variability among individual patients’ parameter values, particularly those relating to treatment response; thus, exploiting the use of these various metrics for model calibration can be helpful to infer such patient-specific parameters both accurately and early, so that treatment protocols can be adjusted mid-course for maximum efficacy. However, taking measurements can be costly and invasive, limiting clinicians to a sparse collection schedule. As such, the determination of optimal times and metrics for which to collect data in order to best inform proper treatment protocols could be of great assistance to clinicians. In this investigation, we employ a Bayesian information-theoretic calibration protocol for experimental design in order to identify the optimal times at which to collect data for informing treatment parameters. Within this procedure, data collection times are chosen sequentially to maximize the reduction in parameter uncertainty with each added measurement, ensuring that a budget of n high-fidelity experimental measurements results in maximum information gain about the low-fidelity model parameter values. In addition to investigating the optimal temporal pattern for data collection, we also develop a framework for deciding which metrics should be utilized at each data collection point. We illustrate this framework with a variety of toy examples, each utilizing a radiotherapy treatment regimen. For each scenario, we analyze the dependence of the predictive power of the low-fidelity model upon the measurement budget.

Impact of Cisplatin Dosing Regimens on Mammary Tumor Growth in an Animal Model

Background

We have recently introduced a modification of the seminal Simeoni model for tumor growth, the modification entailing the incorporation of delay differential equations into its formulation. We found that the modification was competitive with the Simeoni construct in modeling mammary tumor growth under cisplatin treatment in an animal model.

Methods

In our original study, we had two cohorts of animals: untreated, and treatment with bolus injection of cisplatin on day 0. We here explore how modifications in the cisplatin dosing scheme affect tumor growth in our model.

Results

We found that modest fractionation dosing schemes have little ultimate impact on tumor growth. In contrast, metronomic dosing schemes seem quite efficacious, and might yield effective control over tumor progression.

Conclusions

With regard to cisplatin as single agent chemotherapy, a minimum level of drug for a prolonged period of time seems more critical than rapid achievement of a very high dose for a shorter time frame for deterring tumor growth or progression. Exploration of tumor dose schedules with mathematical models can provide valuable insights into potentially effective therapeutic regimens.