A prediction model for response to immune checkpoint inhibition in advanced melanoma

Predicting who will benefit from treatment with immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with advanced melanoma is challenging. We developed a multivariable prediction model for response to ICI, using routinely available clinical data including primary melanoma characteristics. We used a population-based cohort of 3525 patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-PD-1-based therapy. Our prediction model for predicting response within 6 months after ICI initiation was internally validated with bootstrap resampling. Performance evaluation included calibration, discrimination and internal-external cross-validation. Included patients received anti-PD-1 monotherapy (n = 2366) or ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1159) in any treatment line. The model included serum lactate dehydrogenase, World Health Organization performance score, type and line of ICI, disease stage and time to first distant recurrence-all at start of ICI-, and location and type of primary melanoma, the presence of satellites and/or in-transit metastases at primary diagnosis and sex. The over-optimism adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.66). The range of predicted response probabilities was 7%-81%. Based on these probabilities, patients were categorized into quartiles. Compared to the lowest response quartile, patients in the highest quartile had a significantly longer median progression-free survival (20.0 vs 2.8 months; P < .001) and median overall survival (62.0 vs 8.0 months; P < .001). Our prediction model, based on routinely available clinical variables and primary melanoma characteristics, predicts response to ICI in patients with advanced melanoma and discriminates well between treated patients with a very good and very poor prognosis.

Training in optical diagnosis in community hospitals is associated with improved recognition and treatment of T1 CRC: a prospective multicenter intervention study (OPTICAL II)

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Recognition of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) is difficult, with sensitivities of 35-60% in Western countries. We evaluated the real-life effects of the implementation of the OPTICAL model, a recently developed structured and validated prediction model, in Dutch community hospitals.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this prospective multicenter study, 383 endoscopists from 40 hospitals were invited to follow an e-learning on the OPTICAL-model, to increase sensitivity for detecting T1CRC in non-pedunculated polyps. Next, real-life recognition of T1CRC was evaluated in 25 hospitals. Endoscopic and pathologic reports of T1CRCs detected during the next year were collected retrospectively while endoscopists were unaware of this evaluation. Sensitivity for recognition of T1CRC, R0 resection rate, and treatment modality were compared for trained vs. untrained endoscopists and for recognised vs. unrecognised T1CRCs.

RESULTS

Within 1 year after the e-learning 251 endoscopists detected 528 non-pedunculated T1CRCs, 118 (47%) of the endoscopist were trained. T1CRCs had a median size of 20mm and were mainly located in the distal colorectum (66%). Trained endoscopists recognised T1CRCs more frequently than untrained endoscopists (sensitivity 74% vs. 62%; mixed model analysis OR 2.90; 95%CI 1.54-5.45. A higher rate of R0 resection was seen for T1CRCs detected by trained endoscopists (69% vs. 56%, OR 1.73; 95%CI 1.03-2.91).

CONCLUSION

Training in optical recognition of T1CRCs in community hospitals was associated with an increase in sensitivity for T1CRCs. Recognition led to a higher rate of en bloc local excision, resulting in higher R0-resection rates. This may be an important step towards more organ-preserving strategies.

Dynamic Prediction of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Colonoscopic surveillance is recommended in patients with colonic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) given their increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to develop and validate a dynamic prediction model for the occurrence of advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, including high-grade dysplasia and CRC) in IBD.

METHODS

We pooled data from 6 existing cohort studies from Canada, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Patients with IBD and an indication for CRC surveillance were included if they underwent at least 1 follow-up procedure. Exclusion criteria included prior aCRN, prior colectomy, or an unclear indication for surveillance. Predictor variables were selected based on the literature. A dynamic prediction model was developed using a landmarking approach based on Cox proportional hazard modeling. Model performance was assessed with Harrell's concordance-statistic (discrimination) and by calibration curves. Generalizability across surveillance cohorts was evaluated by internal-external cross-validation.

RESULTS

The surveillance cohorts comprised 3731 patients, enrolled and followed-up in the time period from 1973 to 2021, with a median follow-up period of 5.7 years (26,336 patient-years of follow-up evaluation); 146 individuals were diagnosed with aCRN. The model contained 8 predictors, with a cross-validation median concordance statistic of 0.74 and 0.75 for a 5- and 10-year prediction window, respectively. Calibration plots showed good calibration. Internal-external cross-validation results showed medium discrimination and reasonable to good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The new prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, however, generalizability results varied. Future research should focus on formal external validation and relate predicted aCRN risks to surveillance intervals before clinical application.

Organoids as a biomarker for personalized treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer: drug screen optimization and correlation with patient response

BACKGROUND

The inability to predict treatment response of colorectal cancer patients results in unnecessary toxicity, decreased efficacy and survival. Response testing on patient-derived organoids (PDOs) is a promising biomarker for treatment efficacy. The aim of this study is to optimize PDO drug screening methods for correlation with patient response and explore the potential to predict responses to standard chemotherapies.

METHODS

We optimized drug screen methods on 5-11 PDOs per condition of the complete set of 23 PDOs from patients treated for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). PDOs were exposed to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), irinotecan- and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. We compared medium with and without N-acetylcysteine (NAC), different readouts and different combination treatment set-ups to capture the strongest association with patient response. We expanded the screens using the optimized methods for all PDOs. Organoid sensitivity was correlated to the patient's response, determined by % change in the size of target lesions. We assessed organoid sensitivity in relation to prior exposure to chemotherapy, mutational status and sidedness.

RESULTS

Drug screen optimization involved excluding N-acetylcysteine from the medium and biphasic curve fitting for 5-FU & oxaliplatin combination screens. CellTiter-Glo measurements were comparable with CyQUANT and did not affect the correlation with patient response. Furthermore, the correlation improved with application of growth rate metrics, when 5-FU & oxaliplatin was screened in a ratio, and 5-FU & SN-38 using a fixed dose of SN-38. Area under the curve was the most robust drug response curve metric. After optimization, organoid and patient response showed a correlation coefficient of 0.58 for 5-FU (n = 6, 95% CI -0.44,0.95), 0.61 for irinotecan- (n = 10, 95% CI -0.03,0.90) and 0.60 for oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy (n = 11, 95% CI -0.01,0.88). Median progression-free survival of patients with resistant PDOs to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy was significantly shorter than sensitive PDOs (3.3 vs 10.9 months, p = 0.007). Increased resistance to 5-FU in patients with prior exposure to 5-FU/capecitabine was adequately reflected in PDOs (p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study emphasizes the critical impact of the screening methods for determining correlation between PDO drug screens and mCRC patient outcomes. Our 5-step optimization strategy provides a basis for future research on the clinical utility of PDO screens.

Correlation between Histopathological Prognostic Tumor Characteristics and [18F]FDG Uptake in Corresponding Metastases in Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

In metastatic breast cancer (MBC), [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ([18F]FDG-PET/CT) can be used for staging. We evaluated the correlation between BC histopathological characteristics and [18F]FDG uptake in corresponding metastases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with non-rapidly progressive MBC of all subtypes prospectively underwent a baseline histological metastasis biopsy and [18F]FDG-PET. Biopsies were assessed for estrogen, progesterone, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ER, PR, HER2); Ki-67; and histological subtype. [18F]FDG uptake was expressed as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and results were expressed as geometric means.

RESULTS

Of 200 patients, 188 had evaluable metastasis biopsies, and 182 of these contained tumor. HER2 positivity and Ki-67 ≥ 20% were correlated with higher [18F]FDG uptake (estimated geometric mean SUVmax 10.0 and 8.8, respectively; p = 0.0064 and p = 0.014). [18F]FDG uptake was lowest in ER-positive/HER2-negative BC and highest in HER2-positive BC (geometric mean SUVmax 6.8 and 10.0, respectively; p = 0.0058). Although [18F]FDG uptake was lower in invasive lobular carcinoma (n = 31) than invasive carcinoma NST (n = 146) (estimated geometric mean SUVmax 5.8 versus 7.8; p = 0.014), the metastasis detection rate was similar.

CONCLUSIONS

[18F]FDG-PET is a powerful tool to detect metastases, including invasive lobular carcinoma. Although BC histopathological characteristics are related to [18F]FDG uptake, [18F]FDG-PET and biopsy remain complementary in MBC staging (NCT01957332).

Oncological outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The incidence of T1 colorectal cancers (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown if outcomes and and risk models for T1 CRC patients, based on non-screen-detected cases, can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aims to compare stage distribution and oncological outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014-2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was employed to analyze differences in time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated in both groups.

RESULTS

1803 patients were included, of which 1114 (62%) were screen-detected. Median follow-up was 51 months (IQR 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs 8.9%; OR 1.41; 95% CI 0.89-2.23), and a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. Three and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, OS was significantly higher in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.38-0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncological outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in higher OS.

The prognostic potential of mammographic growth rate of invasive breast cancer in the Nijmegen breast cancer screening cohort

OBJECTIVES

Insight into the aggressiveness of potential breast cancers found in screening may optimize recall decisions. Specific growth rate (SGR), measured on mammograms, may provide valuable prognostic information. This study addresses the association of SGR with prognostic factors and overall survival in patients with invasive carcinoma of no special type (NST) from a screened population.

METHODS

In this historic cohort study, 293 women with NST were identified from all participants in the Nijmegen screening program (2003-2007). Information on clinicopathological factors was retrieved from patient files and follow-up on vital status through municipalities. On consecutive mammograms, tumor volumes were estimated. After comparing five growth functions, SGR was calculated using the best-fitting function. Regression and multivariable survival analyses described associations between SGR and prognostic factors as well as overall survival.

RESULTS

Each one standard deviation increase in SGR was associated with an increase in the Nottingham prognostic index by 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21-0.46]. Each one standard deviation increase in SGR increased the odds of a tumor with an unfavorable subtype (based on histologic grade and hormone receptors; odds ratio 2.14 [95% CI: 1.45-3.15]) and increased the odds of diagnosis as an interval cancer (versus screen-detected; odds ratio 1.57 [95% CI: 1.20-2.06]). After a median of 12.4 years of follow-up, 78 deaths occurred. SGR was not associated with overall survival (hazard ratio 1.12 [95% CI: 0.87-1.43]).

CONCLUSIONS

SGR may indicate prognostically relevant differences in tumor aggressiveness if serial mammograms are available. A potential association with cause-specific survival could not be determined and is of interest for future research.

Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy with liquid biopsies and multiparametric MRI in patients with breast cancer

Accurate prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) can help tailor treatment to individual patients' needs. Little is known about the combination of liquid biopsies and computer extracted features from multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the prediction of NAC response in breast cancer. Here, we report on a prospective study with the aim to explore the predictive potential of this combination in adjunct to standard clinical and pathological information before, during and after NAC. The study was performed in four Dutch hospitals. Patients without metastases treated with NAC underwent 3 T multiparametric MRI scans before, during and after NAC. Liquid biopsies were obtained before every chemotherapy cycle and before surgery. Prediction models were developed using penalized linear regression to forecast residual cancer burden after NAC and evaluated for pathologic complete response (pCR) using leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV). Sixty-one patients were included. Twenty-three patients (38%) achieved pCR. Most prediction models yielded the highest estimated LOOCV area under the curve (AUC) at the post-treatment timepoint. A clinical-only model including tumor grade, nodal status and receptor subtype yielded an estimated LOOCV AUC for pCR of 0.76, which increased to 0.82 by incorporating post-treatment radiological MRI assessment (i.e., the "clinical-radiological" model). The estimated LOOCV AUC was 0.84 after incorporation of computer-extracted MRI features, and 0.85 when liquid biopsy information was added instead of the radiological MRI assessment. Adding liquid biopsy information to the clinical-radiological resulted in an estimated LOOCV AUC of 0.86. In conclusion, inclusion of liquid biopsy-derived markers in clinical-radiological prediction models may have potential to improve prediction of pCR after NAC in breast cancer.

Risk Modeling for Individualization of the FLAME Focal Boost Approach in External Beam Radiation Therapy for Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

The FLAME trial (NCT01168479) showed that isotoxic focal boosting to the intraprostatic lesion(s) in patients with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer improves 5-year disease-free survival (DFS). Although the near-minimum dose to the gross tumor volume (D98%) was associated with improved outcomes, a closer look suggested that this might not be the same for all patients. Therefore, we investigated whether risk factors that are associated with a benefit of focal boosting can be identified.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We described the distribution of clinical characteristics and the number of high-risk factors with respect to the D98% in 526 FLAME trial patients. We used penalized Cox regression to develop a prediction model. To investigate a potential benefit in patient subgroups, we compared the model-based predictions of 5-year DFS assuming standard whole-gland radiation therapy of 77 Gy to the predictions assuming an additional focal boost with D98% of 95 Gy.

RESULTS

Patients with high-risk factors were well represented in the group of 120 patients that received D98% > 85 Gy and showed fewer recurrences compared with the group that received 77 Gy. Applying the model simulating a standard dose of 77 Gy, we predicted a high DFS for grade group (GG) 1 patients, whereas patients with high-risk characteristics appeared to show a low DFS. All risk groups showed a high level of DFS when simulating D98% of 95 Gy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that GG 1 patients already show a low level of failure at a standard dose of 77 Gy, limiting the additional benefit of focal boosting. In contrast, patients with high-risk characteristics, especially GG 4 or 5, show a low 5-year DFS, while focal boosting might improve this substantially. This suggests that reaching a high focal boost dose may be particularly beneficial for these patients.

Smoking and colorectal neoplasia in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: Dose-effect relationship

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Prior studies on the effect of smoking on the risk of colitis-associated colorectal neoplasia (CRN) have reported conflicting results. We aimed to further elucidate the association between smoking, including possible dose-effects, and the development of colorectal neoplasia in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study including patients with colonic IBD enrolled in a surveillance program in four academic hospitals between 2011 and 2021. The effects of smoking status and pack-years at study entry on subsequent recurrent events of CRN (including indefinite, low- and high-grade dysplasia, and colorectal cancer [CRC]) were evaluated using uni- and multivariable Prentice, Williams, and Peterson total-time Cox proportional hazard models. Adjustment was performed for extensive disease, prior/index dysplasia, sex, age, first-degree relative with CRC, primary sclerosing cholangitis, and endoscopic inflammation.

RESULTS

In 501 of the enrolled 576 patients, at least one follow-up surveillance was performed after the study index (median follow-up 5 years). CRN occurred at least once in 105 patients. Ever smoking was not associated with recurrent CRN risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-1.44), but an increasing number of pack-years was associated with an increased risk of recurrent CRN (aHR per 10 pack-years 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.32; p < 0.05). Separate analyses per IBD type did not reveal differences.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that an increase in pack-years is associated with a higher risk of recurrent CRN in patients with IBD, independent of established CRN risk factors (NCT01464151).

EGFR-targeted fluorescence molecular imaging for intraoperative margin assessment in oral cancer patients: a phase II trial

Inadequate surgical margins occur frequently in oral squamous cell carcinoma surgery. Fluorescence molecular imaging (FMI) has been explored for intraoperative margin assessment, but data are limited to phase-I studies. In this single-arm phase-II study (NCT03134846), our primary endpoints were to determine the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of cetuximab-800CW for tumor-positive margins detection. Secondary endpoints were safety, close margin detection rate and intrinsic cetuximab-800CW fluorescence. In 65 patients with 66 tumors, cetuximab-800CW was well-tolerated. Fluorescent spots identified in the surgical margin with signal-to-background ratios (SBR) of ≥2 identify tumor-positive margins with 100% sensitivity, 85.9% specificity, 58.3% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. An SBR of ≥1.5 identifies close margins with 70.3% sensitivity, 76.1% specificity, 60.5% positive predictive value, and 83.1% negative predictive value. Performing frozen section analysis aimed at the fluorescent spots with an SBR of ≥1.5 enables safe, intraoperative adjustment of surgical margins.

Towards Response ADAptive Radiotherapy for organ preservation for intermediate-risk rectal cancer (preRADAR): protocol of a phase I dose-escalation trial

INTRODUCTION

Organ preservation is associated with superior functional outcome and quality of life (QoL) compared with total mesorectal excision (TME) for rectal cancer. Only 10% of patients are eligible for organ preservation following short-course radiotherapy (SCRT, 25 Gy in five fractions) and a prolonged interval (4-8 weeks) to response evaluation. The organ preservation rate could potentially be increased by dose-escalated radiotherapy. Online adaptive magnetic resonance-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT) is anticipated to reduce radiation-induced toxicity and enable radiotherapy dose escalation. This trial aims to establish the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of dose-escalated SCRT using online adaptive MRgRT.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The preRADAR is a multicentre phase I trial with a 6+3 dose-escalation design. Patients with intermediate-risk rectal cancer (cT3c-d(MRF-)N1M0 or cT1-3(MRF-)N1M0) interested in organ preservation are eligible. Patients are treated with a radiotherapy boost of 2×5 Gy (level 0), 3×5 Gy (level 1), 4×5 Gy (level 2) or 5×5 Gy (level 3) on the gross tumour volume in the week following standard SCRT using online adaptive MRgRT. The trial starts on dose level 1. The primary endpoint is the MTD based on the incidence of dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) per dose level. DLT is a composite of maximum one in nine severe radiation-induced toxicities and maximum one in three severe postoperative complications, in patients treated with TME or local excision within 26 weeks following start of treatment. Secondary endpoints include the organ preservation rate, non-DLT, oncological outcomes, patient-reported QoL and functional outcomes up to 2 years following start of treatment. Imaging and laboratory biomarkers are explored for early response prediction.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial protocol has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the University Medical Centre Utrecht. The primary and secondary trial results will be published in international peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

WHO International Clinical Trials Registry (NL8997; https://trialsearch.who.int).

Co-cultures of colon cancer cells and cancer-associated fibroblasts recapitulate the aggressive features of mesenchymal-like colon cancer

Background

Poor prognosis in colon cancer is associated with a high content of cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. The relationship between these two features is incompletely understood. Here, we aimed to generate a model system for studying the interaction between cancer cells and CAFs and their effect on immune-related cytokines and T cell proliferation.

Methods

CAFs were isolated from colon cancer liver metastases and were immortalized to prolong lifespan and improve robustness and reproducibility. Established medium and matrix compositions that support the growth of patient-derived organoids were adapted to also support CAF growth. Changes in growth pattern and cellular re-organization were assessed by confocal microscopy, live cell imaging, and immunofluorescence. Single cell RNA sequencing was used to study CAF/organoid co-culture-induced phenotypic changes in both cell types. Conditioned media were used to quantify the production of immunosuppressive factors and to assess their effect on T cell proliferation.

Results

We developed a co-culture system in which colon cancer organoids and CAFs spontaneously organize into superstructures with a high capacity to contract and stiffen the extracellular matrix (ECM). CAF-produced collagen IV provided a basement membrane supporting cancer cell organization into glandular structures, reminiscent of human cancer histology. Single cell RNA sequencing analysis showed that CAFs induced a partial epithelial-to-mesenchymal-transition in a subpopulation of cancer cells, similar to what is observed in the mesenchymal-like consensus molecular subtype 4 (CMS4) colon cancer. CAFs in co-culture were characterized by high expression of ECM components, ECM-remodeling enzymes, glycolysis, hypoxia, and genes involved in immunosuppression. An expression signature derived from CAFs in co-culture identified a subpopulation of glycolytic myofibroblasts specifically residing in CMS1 and CMS4 colon cancer. Medium conditioned by co-cultures contained high levels of the immunosuppressive factors TGFβ1, VEGFA and lactate, and potently inhibited T cell proliferation.

Conclusion

Co-cultures of organoids and immortalized CAFs recapitulate the histological, biophysical, and immunosuppressive features of aggressive mesenchymal-like human CRC. The model can be used to study the mechanisms of immunosuppression and to test therapeutic strategies targeting the cross-talk between CAFs and cancer cells. It can be further modified to represent distinct colon cancer subtypes and (organ-specific) microenvironments.

Patient-derived head and neck cancer organoids allow treatment stratification and serve as a tool for biomarker validation and identification

BACKGROUND

Organoids are in vitro three-dimensional structures that can be grown from patient tissue. Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a collective term used for multiple tumor types including squamous cell carcinomas and salivary gland adenocarcinomas.

METHODS

Organoids were established from HNC patient tumor tissue and characterized using immunohistochemistry and DNA sequencing. Organoids were exposed to chemo- and radiotherapy and a panel of targeted agents. Organoid response was correlated with patient clinical response. CRISPR-Cas9-based gene editing of organoids was applied for biomarker validation.

FINDINGS

A HNC biobank consisting of 110 models, including 65 tumor models, was generated. Organoids retained DNA alterations found in HNC. Comparison of organoid and patient response to radiotherapy (primary [n = 6] and adjuvant [n = 15]) indicated potential for guiding treatment options in the adjuvant setting. In organoids, the radio-sensitizing potential of cisplatin and carboplatin could be validated. However, cetuximab conveyed radioprotection in most models. HNC-targeted treatments were tested on 31 models, indicating possible novel treatment options with the potential for treatment stratification in the future. Activating PIK3CA mutations did not predict alpelisib response in organoids. Protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5) inhibitors were identified as a potential treatment option for cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) null HNC.

CONCLUSIONS

Organoids hold potential as a diagnostic tool in personalized medicine for HNC. In vitro organoid response to radiotherapy (RT) showed a trend that mimics clinical response, indicating the predictive potential of patient-derived organoids. Moreover, organoids could be used for biomarker discovery and validation.

FUNDING

This work was funded by Oncode PoC 2018-P0003.

Comparison between de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer: the presence of a primary tumour is not the only difference-a Dutch population-based study from 2008 to 2018

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to compare characteristics and survival of patients with de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

Data of patients with metastatic breast cancer were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients were categorized as having de novo metastatic breast cancer (n = 8656) if they had distant metastases at initial presentation, or metachronous metastatic disease (n = 2374) in case they developed metastases within 5 or 10 years after initial breast cancer diagnosis. Clinicopathological characteristics and treatments of these two groups were compared, after which multiple imputation was performed to account for missing data. Overall survival was compared for patients treated with systemic therapy in the metastatic setting, using Kaplan Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The hazard ratio for overall survival of de novo versus metachronous metastases was assessed accounting for time-varying effects.

RESULTS

Compared to metachronous patients, patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer were more likely to be ≥ 70 years, to have invasive lobular carcinoma, clinical T3 or T4 tumours, loco-regional lymph node metastases, HER2 positivity, bone only disease and to have received systemic therapy in the metastatic setting. They were less likely to have triple negative tumours and liver or brain metastases. Patients with de novo metastases survived longer (median 34.7 months) than patients with metachronous metastases (median 24.3 months) and the hazard ratio (0.75) varied over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in clinicopathological characteristics and survival between de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer highlight that these are distinct patients groups.

Time-varying prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer: A population-based study and meta-analysis

We studied the prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer over time and across treatment lines. Population data on synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database. Pubmed, EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched for prospective studies on metastatic colorectal cancer to conduct a meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria consisted of metastatic disease, systemic treatment with palliative intent and specification of primary tumor location. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. For the population-based data, multivariable Cox models were constructed. The Grambsch-Therneau test was conducted to evaluate the potential time-varying nature of sidedness. Meta-regression incorporating treatment-line as variable was conducted to test the pre-specified hypothesis that the prognostic value of sidedness varies over time. Analysis of 12 885 and 16 160 synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients registered in the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database, respectively, indicated a time-varying prognostic value of sidedness (P < .01). Thirty-one studies were selected for the meta-analysis (9558 patients for overall survival analysis). Pooled univariable hazard ratio_{left-sided/right-sided} for overall survival was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76) in 1st-line, 0.76 (0.54-1.06) in 2nd-line and 1.01 (0.86-1.19) in 3rd-line studies. Hazard ratios were significantly influenced by treatment line (P = .035). The prognostic value of sidedness of the primary tumor in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with palliative systemic therapy decreases over time since diagnosis, suggesting that sidedness may not be a useful stratification factor in late-line trials. This decrease in prognostic value should be taken into account when providing prognostic information to patients.

Long-term Survival in Breast Cancer Patients Is Associated with Contralateral Parenchymal Enhancement at MRI: Outcomes of the SELECT Study

Background Several single-center studies found that high contralateral parenchymal enhancement (CPE) at breast MRI was associated with improved long-term survival in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer. Due to varying sample sizes, population characteristics, and follow-up times, consensus of the association is currently lacking. Purpose To confirm whether CPE is associated with long-term survival in a large multicenter retrospective cohort, and to investigate if CPE is associated with endocrine therapy effectiveness. Materials and Methods This multicenter observational cohort included women with unilateral ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancer (tumor size ≤50 mm and ≤three positive lymph nodes) who underwent MRI from January 2005 to December 2010. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and distant RFS (DRFS) were assessed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to investigate differences in absolute risk after 10 years, stratified according to CPE tertile. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to investigate whether CPE was associated with prognosis and endocrine therapy effectiveness. Results Overall, 1432 women (median age, 54 years [IQR, 47-63 years]) were included from 10 centers. Differences in absolute OS after 10 years were stratified according to CPE tertile as follows: 88.5% (95% CI: 88.1, 89.1) in tertile 1, 85.8% (95% CI: 85.2, 86.3) in tertile 2, and 85.9% (95% CI: 85.4, 86.4) in tertile 3. CPE was independently associated with OS, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.36; P = .047), but was not associated with RFS (HR, 1.11; P = .16) or DRFS (HR, 1.11; P = .19). The effect of endocrine therapy on survival could not be accurately assessed; therefore, the association between endocrine therapy efficacy and CPE could not reliably be estimated. Conclusion High contralateral parenchymal enhancement was associated with a marginally decreased overall survival in patients with estrogen receptor-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer, but was not associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) or distant RFS. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Honda and Iima in this issue.

The course of pain and dysphagia after radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus-related neoplasia

BACKGROUND

 Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is effective for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) neoplasia, but little is known on the course of pain and dysphagia after RFA. We aimed to describe the course of post-RFA symptoms and to identify possible associated risk factors.

METHODS

 In this multicenter, observational cohort study, all RFA procedures registered in a prospective database were included. Patient and treatment characteristics were collected from medical records and patients self-registered post-procedural symptoms in electronic symptom diaries for 14 days. Mixed model regression was used for the analyses.

RESULTS

 In total, 255 diaries were completed. Post-RFA pain was reported for 95 % (95 %CI 93-98) of procedures (median duration 14 days; 25th-75th percentiles [p25-p75] 11-14) and major pain for 64 % (95 %CI 58-69; median duration 8 days, p25-p75 3-13). Post-procedural pain significantly increased with BE length, younger age, and no prior ablation. Dysphagia was present after 83 % (95 %CI 79-88) of procedures (median duration 13 days, p25-p75 9-14). The risk of dysphagia decreased with age and increased when patients experienced more pain.

CONCLUSIONS

 RFA treatment for BE-related neoplasia seems a significant burden for patients, and post-procedural symptoms should be taken into account when counseling patients before starting endoscopic eradication therapy.

Time interval from primary melanoma to first distant recurrence in relation to patient outcomes in advanced melanoma

Since the introduction of BRAF(/MEK) inhibition and immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI), the prognosis of advanced melanoma has greatly improved. Melanoma is known for its remarkably long time to first distant recurrence (TFDR), which can be decades in some patients and is partly attributed to immune-surveillance. We investigated the relationship between TFDR and patient outcomes after systemic treatment for advanced melanoma. We selected patients undergoing first-line systemic therapy for advanced melanoma from the nationwide Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. The association between TFDR and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression models. The TFDR was modeled categorically, linearly, and flexibly using restricted cubic splines. Patients received anti-PD-1-based treatment (n = 1844) or BRAF(/MEK) inhibition (n = 1618). For ICI-treated patients with a TFDR <2 years, median OS was 25.0 months, compared to 37.3 months for a TFDR >5 years (P = .014). Patients treated with BRAF(/MEK) inhibition with a longer TFDR also had a significantly longer median OS (8.6 months for TFDR <2 years compared to 11.1 months for >5 years, P = .004). The hazard of dying rapidly decreased with increasing TFDR until approximately 5 years (HR 0.87), after which the hazard of dying further decreased with increasing TFDR, but less strongly (HR 0.82 for a TFDR of 10 years and HR 0.79 for a TFDR of 15 years). Results were similar when stratifying for type of treatment. Advanced melanoma patients with longer TFDR have a prolonged PFS and OS, irrespective of being treated with first-line ICI or targeted therapy.

Predicting early extrahepatic recurrence after local treatment of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Patients who develop early extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) may not benefit from local treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs using a national data set.

METHODS

A Cox regression prediction model for EHR was developed and validated internally using data on patients who had local treatment for CRLMs with curative intent. Performance assessment included calibration, discrimination, net benefit, and generalizability by internal-external cross-validation. The prognostic relevance of early EHR (within 6 months) was evaluated by landmark analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 35 months, 557 of the 1077 patients had EHR and 249 died. Median overall survival was 19.5 (95 per cent c.i. 15.6 to 23.0) months in patients with early EHR after CRLM treatment, compared with not reached (45.3 months to not reached) in patients without an early EHR. The EHR prediction model included side and stage of the primary tumour, RAS/BRAFV600E mutational status, and number and size of CRLMs. The range of 6-month EHR predictions was 5.9-56.0 (i.q.r. 12.9-22.0) per cent. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The C-index through 6 and 12 months was 0.663 (95 per cent c.i. 0.624 to 0.702) and 0.661 (0.632 to 0.689) respectively. The observed 6-month EHR risk was 6.5 per cent for patients in the lowest quartile of predicted risk compared with 32.0 per cent in the highest quartile.

CONCLUSION

Early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs can be predicted.

Plain Language Summary - Development and validation of risk calculators for people with "thin" melanomas on their skin to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?

This is a summary of an article describing the development of risk calculators for use in people who develop a type of melanoma on their skin called "thin" melanoma to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return. The article was originally published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology in 2021.

HOW WERE THE CALCULATORS DEVELOPED?

Calculations were performed to predict the chance of people with thin melanomas surviving without their melanoma recurring. Three graphical prediction calculators (called nomograms) were developed, along with easy-to-use online calculators using the same underlying calculation methods. The model was developed using data for 25,930 Dutch people diagnosed with thin melanomas (called the "development set"). To test its ability to predict melanoma recurrence, it was then compared with data for 2,968 Australian people with melanoma (the "validation set"). The calculators developed in the Dutch patients were found to accurately predict the risk of melanoma recurring for people with melanoma in the Australian "validation" group.

WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?

The calculators provide estimates of the risk of the melanoma returning for people with thin melanomas. The easy-to-use online calculators are freely available on a smartphone, tablet or computer, and will assist in providing accurate estimates of recurrence risks for individuals with thin melanomas, allowing more intensive follow-up of those whose predicted risk of their melanoma returning is high.

[89Zr]Zr-DFO-girentuximab and [18F]FDG PET/CT to Predict Watchful Waiting Duration in Patients with Metastatic Clear-cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Watchful waiting (WW) can be considered for patients with metastatic clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) with good or intermediate prognosis, especially those with <2 International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium criteria and ≤2 metastatic sites [referred to as watch and wait ("W&W") criteria]. The IMaging PAtients for Cancer drug SelecTion-Renal Cell Carcinoma study objective was to assess the predictive value of [18F]FDG PET/CT and [89Zr]Zr-DFO-girentuximab PET/CT for WW duration in patients with mccRCC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Between February 2015 and March 2018, 48 patients were enrolled, including 40 evaluable patients with good (n = 14) and intermediate (n = 26) prognosis. Baseline contrast-enhanced CT, [18F]FDG and [89Zr]Zr-DFO-girentuximab PET/CT were performed. Primary endpoint was the time to disease progression warranting systemic treatment. Maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax) were measured using lesions on CT images coregistered to PET/CT. High and low uptake groups were defined on the basis of median geometric mean SUVmax of RECIST-measurable lesions across patients.

RESULTS

The median WW time was 16.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.0-31.7]. The median WW period was shorter in patients with high [18F]FDG tumor uptake than those with low uptake (9.0 vs. 36.2 months; HR, 5.6; 95% CI: 2.4-14.7; P < 0.001). Patients with high [89Zr]Zr-DFO-girentuximab tumor uptake had a median WW period of 9.3 versus 21.3 months with low uptake (HR, 1.7; 95% CI: 0.9-3.3; P = 0.13). Patients with "W&W criteria" had a longer median WW period of 21.3 compared with patients without: 9.3 months (HR, 1.9; 95% CI: 0.9-3.9; Pone-sided = 0.034). Adding [18F]FDG uptake to the "W&W criteria" improved the prediction of WW duration (P < 0.001); whereas [89Zr]Zr-DFO-girentuximab did not (P = 0.53).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with good- or intermediate-risk mccRCC, low [18F]FDG uptake is associated with prolonged WW. This study shows the predictive value of the "W&W criteria" for WW duration and shows the potential of [18F]FDG-PET/CT to further improve this.

CT radiomics compared to a clinical model for predicting checkpoint inhibitor treatment outcomes in patients with advanced melanoma

INTRODUCTION

Predicting checkpoint inhibitors treatment outcomes in melanoma is a relevant task, due to the unpredictable and potentially fatal toxicity and high costs for society. However, accurate biomarkers for treatment outcomes are lacking. Radiomics are a technique to quantitatively capture tumour characteristics on readily available computed tomography (CT) imaging. The purpose of this study was to investigate the added value of radiomics for predicting clinical benefit from checkpoint inhibitors in melanoma in a large, multicenter cohort.

METHODS

Patients who received first-line anti-PD1±anti-CTLA4 treatment for advanced cutaneous melanoma were retrospectively identified from nine participating hospitals. For every patient, up to five representative lesions were segmented on baseline CT, and radiomics features were extracted. A machine learning pipeline was trained on the radiomics features to predict clinical benefit, defined as stable disease for more than 6 months or response per RECIST 1.1 criteria. This approach was evaluated using a leave-one-centre-out cross validation and compared to a model based on previously discovered clinical predictors. Lastly, a combination model was built on the radiomics and clinical model.

RESULTS

A total of 620 patients were included, of which 59.2% experienced clinical benefit. The radiomics model achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.607 [95% CI, 0.562-0.652], lower than that of the clinical model (AUROC=0.646 [95% CI, 0.600-0.692]). The combination model yielded no improvement over the clinical model in terms of discrimination (AUROC=0.636 [95% CI, 0.592-0.680]) or calibration. The output of the radiomics model was significantly correlated with three out of five input variables of the clinical model (p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

The radiomics model achieved a moderate predictive value of clinical benefit, which was statistically significant. However, a radiomics approach was unable to add value to a simpler clinical model, most likely due to the overlap in predictive information learned by both models. Future research should focus on the application of deep learning, spectral CT-derived radiomics, and a multimodal approach for accurately predicting benefit to checkpoint inhibitor treatment in advanced melanoma.

Endoscopic intermuscular dissection for deep submucosal invasive cancer in the rectum: a new endoscopic approach

BACKGROUND

The risk of lymph node metastasis associated with deep submucosal invasion should be balanced against the mortality and morbidity of total mesorectal excision (TME). Dissection through the submucosa hinders radical deep resection, and full-thickness resection may influence the outcome of completion TME. Endoscopic intermuscular dissection (EID) in between the circular and longitudinal part of the muscularis propria could potentially provide an R0 resection while leaving the rectal wall intact.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, the data of patients treated with EID for suspected deep submucosal invasive rectal cancer between 2018 and 2020 were analyzed. Study outcomes were the percentages of technical success, R0 resection, curative resection, and adverse events.

RESULTS

67 patients (median age 67 years; 73 % men) were included. The median lesion size was 25 mm (interquartile range 20-33 mm). The rates of overall technical success, R0 resection, and curative resection were 96 % (95 %CI 89 %-99 %), 81 % (95 %CI 70 %-89 %), and 45 % (95 %CI 33 %-57 %). Only minor adverse events occurred in eight patients (12 %).

CONCLUSION

EID for deep invasive T1 rectal cancer appears to be feasible and safe, and the high R0 resection rate creates the potential of rectal preserving therapy in 45 % of patients.

Improving prediction of response to neoadjuvant treatment in patients with breast cancer by combining liquid biopsies with multiparametric MRI: protocol of the LIMA study - a multicentre prospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer has important prognostic implications. Dynamic prediction of tumour regression by NAC may allow for adaption of the treatment plan before completion, or even before the start of treatment. Such predictions may help prevent overtreatment and related toxicity and correct for undertreatment with ineffective regimens. Current imaging methods are not able to fully predict the efficacy of NAC. To successfully improve response prediction, tumour biology and heterogeneity as well as treatment-induced changes have to be considered. In the LIMA study, multiparametric MRI will be combined with liquid biopsies. In addition to conventional clinical and pathological information, these methods may give complementary information at multiple time points during treatment.

AIM

To combine multiparametric MRI and liquid biopsies in patients with breast cancer to predict residual cancer burden (RCB) after NAC, in adjunct to standard clinico-pathological information. Predictions will be made before the start of NAC, approximately halfway during treatment and after completion of NAC.

METHODS

In this multicentre prospective observational study we aim to enrol 100 patients. Multiparametric MRI will be performed prior to NAC, approximately halfway and after completion of NAC. Liquid biopsies will be obtained immediately prior to every cycle of chemotherapy and after completion of NAC. The primary endpoint is RCB in the surgical resection specimen following NAC. Collected data will primarily be analysed using multivariable techniques such as penalised regression techniques.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Medical Research Ethics Committee Utrecht has approved this study (NL67308.041.19). Informed consent will be obtained from each participant. All data are anonymised before publication. The findings of this study will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04223492.

MRI to assess response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer subtypes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This meta-analysis aimed to estimate and compare sensitivity, specificity, positive- (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting pathological complete remission (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with early-stage breast cancer. We stratified for molecular subtype by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and explored the impact of other factors. Two researchers systematically searched PUBMED and EMBASE to select relevant studies and extract data. For meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity, we used bivariate random-effects models. Twenty-six included studies contained 4497 patients. There was a significant impact of IHC subtype on post-NAC MRI accuracy (p = 0.0082) for pCR. The pooled sensitivity was 0.67 [95% CI 0.58-0.74] for the HR-/HER2-, 0.65 [95% CI 0.56-0.73] for the HR-/HER2+, 0.55 [95% CI 0.45-0.64] for the HR+/HER2- and 0.60 [95% CI 0.50-0.70] for the HR+/HER2+ subtype. The pooled specificity was 0.85 [95% CI 0.81-0.88] for the HR-/HER2-, 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.86] for the HR-/HER2+, 0.88[95% CI 0.84-0.91] for the HR+/HER2- and 0.74 [95% CI 0.63-0.83] for the HR+/HER2+ subtype. The PPV was highest in the HR-/HER2- subtype and lowest in the HR+/HER2- subtype. MRI field strength of 3.0 T was associated with a higher sensitivity compared to 1.5 T (p = 0.00063). The accuracy of MRI for predicting pCR depends on molecular subtype, which should be taken into account in clinical practice. Higher MRI field strength positively impacts accuracy. When intervention trials based on MRI response evaluation are designed, the impact of IHC subtype and field strength on MR accuracy should be considered.

Imaging to predict checkpoint inhibitor outcomes in cancer. A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Checkpoint inhibition has radically improved the perspective for patients with metastatic cancer, but predicting who will not respond with high certainty remains difficult. Imaging-derived biomarkers may be able to provide additional insights into the heterogeneity in tumour response between patients. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarise and qualitatively assess the current evidence on imaging biomarkers that predict response and survival in patients treated with checkpoint inhibitors in all cancer types.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase were searched from database inception to 29th November 2021. Articles eligible for inclusion described baseline imaging predictive factors, radiomics and/or imaging machine learning models for predicting response and survival in patients with any kind of malignancy treated with checkpoint inhibitors. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUIPS and PROBAST tools and data was extracted.

RESULTS

In total, 119 studies including 15,580 patients were selected. Of these studies, 73 investigated simple imaging factors. 45 studies investigated radiomic features or deep learning models. Predictors of worse survival were (i) higher tumour burden, (ii) presence of liver metastases, (iii) less subcutaneous adipose tissue, (iv) less dense muscle and (v) presence of symptomatic brain metastases. Hazard rate ratios did not exceed 2.00 for any predictor in the larger and higher quality studies. The added value of baseline fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography parameters in predicting response to treatment was limited. Pilot studies of radioactive drug tracer imaging showed promising results. Reports on radiomics were almost unanimously positive, but numerous methodological concerns exist.

CONCLUSIONS

There is well-supported evidence for several imaging biomarkers that can be used in clinical decision making. Further research, however, is needed into biomarkers that can more accurately identify which patients who will not benefit from checkpoint inhibition. Radiomics and radioactive drug labelling appear to be promising approaches for this purpose.

Consensus molecular subtype 4 (CMS4)-targeted therapy in primary colon cancer: A proof-of-concept study

Background

Mesenchymal Consensus Molecular Subtype 4 (CMS4) colon cancer is associated with poor prognosis and therapy resistance. In this proof-of-concept study, we assessed whether a rationally chosen drug could mitigate the distinguishing molecular features of primary CMS4 colon cancer.

Methods

In the ImPACCT trial, informed consent was obtained for molecular subtyping at initial diagnosis of colon cancer using a validated RT-qPCR CMS4-test on three biopsies per tumor (Phase-1, n=69 patients), and for neoadjuvant CMS4-targeting therapy with imatinib (Phase-2, n=5). Pre- and post-treatment tumor biopsies were analyzed by RNA-sequencing and immunohistochemistry. Imatinib-induced gene expression changes were associated with molecular subtypes and survival in an independent cohort of 3232 primary colon cancer.

Results

The CMS4-test classified 52/172 biopsies as CMS4 (30%). Five patients consented to imatinib treatment prior to surgery, yielding 15 pre- and 15 post-treatment samples for molecular analysis. Imatinib treatment caused significant suppression of mesenchymal genes and upregulation of genes encoding epithelial junctions. The gene expression changes induced by imatinib were associated with improved survival and a shift from CMS4 to CMS2.

Conclusion

Imatinib may have value as a CMS-switching drug in primary colon cancer and induces a gene expression program that is associated with improved survival.

Validation of the 70-gene signature test (MammaPrint) to identify patients with breast cancer aged ≥ 70 years with ultralow risk of distant recurrence: A population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

When risk estimation in older patients with hormone receptor positive breast cancer (HR + BC) is based on the same factors as in younger patients, age-related factors regarding recurrence risk and other-cause mortality are not considered. Genomic risk assessment could help identify patients with ultralow risk BC who can forgo adjuvant treatment. However, assessment tools should be validated specifically for older patients. This study aims to determine whether the 70-gene signature test (MammaPrint) can identify patients with HR + BC aged ≥70 years with ultralow risk for distant recurrence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Inclusion criteria: ≥70 years; invasive HR + BC; T1-2N0-3M0.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

HER2 + BC; neoadjuvant therapy. MammaPrint assays were performed following standardized protocols. Clinical risk was determined with St. Gallen risk classification. Primary endpoint was 10-year cumulative incidence rate of distant recurrence in relation to genomic risk. Subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) were estimated from Fine and Gray analyses. Multivariate analyses were adjusted for adjuvant endocrine therapy and clinical risk.

RESULTS

This study included 418 patients, median age 78 years (interquartile range [IQR] 73-83). Sixty percent of patients were treated with endocrine therapy. MammaPrint classified 50 patients as MammaPrint-ultralow, 224 patients as MammaPrint-low, and 144 patients as MammaPrint-high risk. Regarding clinical risk, 50 patients were classified low, 237 intermediate, and 131 high. Discordance was observed between clinical and genomic risk in 14 MammaPrint-ultralow risk patients who were high clinical risk, and 84 patients who were MammaPrint-high risk, but low or intermediate clinical risk. Median follow-up was 9.2 years (IQR 7.9-10.5). The 10-year distant recurrence rate was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI] 11-23) in MammaPrint-high risk patients, 8% (4-12) in MammaPrint-low (HR 0.46; 95%CI 0.25-0.84), and 2% (0-6) in MammaPrint-ultralow risk patients (HR 0.11; 95%CI 0.02-0.81). After adjustment for clinical risk and endocrine therapy, MammaPrint-high risk patients still had significantly higher 10-year distant recurrence rate than MammaPrint-low (sHR 0.49; 95%CI 0.26-0.90) and MammaPrint-ultralow patients (sHR 0.12; 95%CI 0.02-0.85). Of the 14 MammaPrint-ultralow, high clinical risk patients none developed a distant recurrence.

DISCUSSION

These data add to the evidence validating MammaPrint's ultralow risk threshold. Even in high clinical risk patients, MammaPrint-ultralow risk patients remained recurrence-free ten years after diagnosis. These findings justify future studies into using MammaPrint to individualize adjuvant treatment in older patients.

Clinical Validity of 16α-[18F]Fluoro-17β-Estradiol Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography to Assess Estrogen Receptor Status in Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Breast Cancer

PURPOSE

Determining the estrogen receptor (ER) status is essential in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) management. Whole-body ER imaging with 16α-[¹⁸F]fluoro-17β-estradiol positron emission tomography ([¹⁸F]FES-PET) is increasingly used for this purpose. To establish the clinical validity of the [¹⁸F]FES-PET, we studied the diagnostic accuracy of qualitative and quantitative [¹⁸F]FES-PET assessment to predict ER expression by immunohistochemistry in a metastasis.

METHODS

In a prospective multicenter trial, 200 patients with newly diagnosed MBC underwent extensive workup including molecular imaging. For this subanalysis, ER expression in the biopsied metastasis was related to qualitative whole-body [¹⁸F]FES-PET evaluation and quantitative [¹⁸F]FES uptake in the corresponding metastasis. A review and meta-analysis regarding [¹⁸F]FES-PET diagnostic performance were performed.

RESULTS

Whole-body [¹⁸F]FES-PET assessment predicted ER expression in the biopsied metastasis with good accuracy: a sensitivity of 95% (95% CI, 89 to 97), a specificity of 80% (66 to 89), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 93% (87 to 96), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 85% (72 to 92) in 181 of 200 evaluable patients. Quantitative [¹⁸F]FES uptake predicted ER immunohistochemistry in the corresponding metastasis with a sensitivity/specificity of 91%/69% and a PPV/NPV of 90%/71% in 156 of 200 evaluable patients. For bone metastases, PPV/NPV was 92%/81%. Meta-analysis with addition of our data has increased diagnostic performance and narrowed the 95% CIs compared with previous studies with a sensitivity/specificity of both 86% (81 to 90 and 73 to 93, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In this largest prospective series so far, we established the clinical validity of [¹⁸F]FES-PET to determine tumor ER status in MBC. In view of the high diagnostic accuracy of qualitatively assessed whole-body [¹⁸F]FES-PET, this noninvasive imaging modality can be considered a valid alternative to a biopsy of a metastasis to determine ER status in newly MBC (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01957332).

External Validation of Two Established Clinical Risk Scores Predicting Outcome after Local Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases in a Nationwide Cohort

Optimized surgical techniques and systemic therapy have increased the number of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) eligible for local treatment. To increase postoperative survival, we need to stratify patients to customize therapy. Most clinical risk scores (CRSs) which predict prognosis after CRLM resection were based on the outcome of studies in specialized centers, and this may hamper the generalizability of these CRSs in unselected populations and underrepresented subgroups. We aimed to externally validate two CRSs in a population-based cohort of patients with CRLM. A total of 1105 patients with local treatment of CRLM, diagnosed in 2015/2016, were included from a nationwide population-based database. Survival outcomes were analyzed. The Fong and more recently developed GAME CRS were externally validated, including in pre-specified subgroups (≤70/>70 years and with/without perioperative systemic therapy). The three-year DFS was 22.8%, and the median OS in the GAME risk groups (high/moderate/low) was 32.4, 46.7, and 68.1 months, respectively (p < 0.005). The median OS for patients with versus without perioperative therapy was 47.6 (95%CI [39.8, 56.2]) and 54.9 months (95%CI [48.8, 63.7]), respectively (p = 0.152), and for below/above 70 years, it was 54.9 (95%CI [49.3−64.1]) and 44.2 months (95%CI [37.1−54.3]), respectively (p < 0.005). The discriminative ability for OS of Fong CRS was 0.577 (95%CI [0.554, 0.601]), and for GAME, it was 0.596 (95%CI [0.572, 0.621]), and was comparable in the subgroups. In conclusion, both CRSs showed predictive ability in a population-based cohort and in predefined subgroups. However, the limited discriminative ability of these CRSs results in insufficient preoperative risk stratification for clinical decision-making.

Esophageal Second Primary Tumors in Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Overall Survival

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this registry-based cohort study was to evaluate the potential role of endoscopic esophageal surveillance for esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in Western patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

METHODS

Outcomes were cumulative incidence and risk factors for ESPTs and its effect on overall survival.

RESULTS

A total of 47 ESPTs were observed in 1,708 patients with HNSCC, with 10-year cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of 2.9% (2.1-3.7). Alcohol and HNSCC location were significant predictors for ESPTs. ESPTs significantly increased the risk of dying (adjusted hazard ratio 3.36, 95% confidence interval 2.16-5.22).

DISCUSSION

Endoscopic esophageal surveillance of Western patients with HNSCC with high risk of ESPTs seems justified.

Peritoneal metastases from colorectal cancer belong to Consensus Molecular Subtype 4 and are sensitised to oxaliplatin by inhibiting reducing capacity

Background

Peritoneal metastases (PM) in colorectal cancer (CRC) are associated with therapy resistance and poor survival. Oxaliplatin monotherapy is widely applied in the intraperitoneal treatment of PM, but fails to yield clinical benefit. We aimed to identify the mechanism(s) underlying PM resistance to oxaliplatin and to develop strategies overcoming such resistance.

Experimental design

We generated a biobank consisting of 35 primary tumour regions and 59 paired PM from 12 patients. All samples were analysed by RNA sequencing. We also generated a series of PM-derived organoid (PMDO) cultures and used these to design and test strategies to overcome resistance to oxaliplatin.

Results

PM displayed various hallmarks of aggressive CRC biology. The vast majority of PM and paired primary tumours belonged to the Consensus Molecular Subtype 4 (CMS4). PMDO cultures were resistant to oxaliplatin and expressed high levels of glutamate-cysteine ligase (GCLC) causing detoxification of oxaliplatin through glutathione synthesis. Genetic or pharmacological targeting of GCLC sensitised PMDOs to a 1-h exposure to oxaliplatin, through increased platinum-DNA adduct formation.

Conclusions

These results link oxaliplatin resistance of colorectal PM to their CMS4 status and high reducing capacity. Inhibiting the reducing capacity of PM may be an effective strategy to overcome PM resistance to oxaliplatin.

Contralateral parenchymal enhancement on MRI is associated with tumor proteasome pathway gene expression and overall survival of early ER+/HER2-breast cancer patients

Purpose

To assess whether contralateral parenchymal enhancement (CPE) on MRI is associated with gene expression pathways in ER+/HER2-breast cancer, and if so, whether such pathways are related to survival.

Methods

Preoperative breast MRIs were analyzed of early ER+/HER2-breast cancer patients eligible for breast-conserving surgery included in a prospective observational cohort study (MARGINS). The contralateral parenchyma was segmented and CPE was calculated as the average of the top-10% delayed enhancement. Total tumor RNA sequencing was performed and gene set enrichment analysis was used to reveal gene expression pathways associated with CPE (N = 226) and related to overall survival (OS) and invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) in multivariable survival analysis. The latter was also done for the METABRIC cohort (N = 1355).

Results

CPE was most strongly correlated with proteasome pathways (normalized enrichment statistic = 2.04, false discovery rate = .11). Patients with high CPE showed lower tumor proteasome gene expression. Proteasome gene expression had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.40 (95% CI = 0.89, 2.16; P = .143) for OS in the MARGINS cohort and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.08, 2.14; P = .017) for IDFS, in METABRIC proteasome gene expression had an HR of 1.09 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.18; P = .020) for OS and 1.10 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.18; P = .012) for IDFS.

Conclusion

CPE was negatively correlated with tumor proteasome gene expression in early ER+/HER2-breast cancer patients. Low tumor proteasome gene expression was associated with improved survival in the METABRIC data.

•

Contralateral parenchymal enhancement on MRI was associated with tumor proteasome gene expression in ER+/HER2-breast cancer.

•

A high contralateral parenchymal enhancement was associated with a low proteasome gene expression in the breast cancer.

•

Low proteasome tumor gene expression was associated with improved survival in an independent patient cohort.

[Treatment of older breast cancer patients: de-escalation in oncology]

The prognosis of breast cancer patients has greatly improved in recent decades. Innovations in imaging techniques, pathological assessment, optimized surgical and radiotherapy techniques have contributed to this. Much of the improvement is due to the increase of the range of effective systemic treatment and the continual expansion of the indication for this purpose. However, broadening the guidelines for adjuvant systemic treatments, results in a smaller absolute gain. The balance between effectiveness and side-effects could therefore be compromised, which is an incentive to search for possibilities for de-escalation to prevent potential damage, without unnecessarily increasing the risk of recurrence. Currently, in The Netherlands this is being investigated in older breast cancer patients.

Sixty-Day Mortality of Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Randomized to Systemic Treatment vs Primary Tumor Resection Followed by Systemic Treatment: The CAIRO4 Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The role of primary tumor resection (PTR) in synchronous patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who had unresectable metastases and few or absent symptoms of their primary tumor is unclear. Studying subgroups with low postoperative mortality may identify patients who potentially benefit from PTR.

Objective

To determine the difference in 60-day mortality between patients randomized to systemic treatment only vs PTR followed by systemic treatment, and to explore risk factors associated with 60-day mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

CAIRO4 is a randomized phase 3 trial initiated in 2012 in which patients with mCRC were randomized to systemic treatment only or PTR followed by systemic treatment with palliative intent. This multicenter study was conducted by the Danish and Dutch Colorectal Cancer Group in general and academic hospitals in Denmark and the Netherlands. Patients included between August 2012 and December 2019 with histologically proven colorectal cancer, unresectable metastases, and a primary tumor with few or absent symptoms were eligible.

Interventions

Systemic treatment, consisting of fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy with bevacizumab vs PTR followed by fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy with bevacizumab.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The aim of the current analysis was to compare 60-day mortality rates in both treatment arms. A secondary aim was the identification of risk factors for 60-day mortality in the treatment arms. These aims were not predefined in the study protocol.

Results

A total of 196 patients were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (112 [57%] men; median [IQR] age, 65 [59-70] years). Sixty-day mortality was 3% (95% CI, 1%-9%) in the systemic treatment arm and 11% (95% CI, 6%-19%) in the PTR arm (P = .03). In a per-protocol analysis, 60-day mortality was 2% (95% CI, 1%-7%) vs 10% (95% CI, 5%-18%; P = .048). Patients with elevated serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and/or neutrophils who were randomized to PTR had a significantly higher 60-day mortality than patients without these characteristics.

Conclusions and Relevance

Patients with mCRC who were randomized to PTR followed by systemic treatment had a higher 60-day mortality than patients randomized to systemic treatment. Especially patients randomized to the PTR arm with elevated serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophils, aspartate aminotransferase, and/or alanine aminotransferase were at high risk of postoperative mortality. Final study results on overall survival have to be awaited.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01606098.

Effects of exercise in breast cancer patients: implications of the trials within cohorts (TwiCs) design in the UMBRELLA Fit trial

Purpose

The Trials within Cohorts (TwiCs) design aims to overcome problems faced in conventional RCTs. We evaluated the TwiCs design when estimating the effect of exercise on quality of life (QoL) and fatigue in inactive breast cancer survivors.

Methods

UMBRELLA Fit was conducted within the prospective UMBRELLA breast cancer cohort. Patients provided consent for future randomization at cohort entry. We randomized inactive patients 12–18 months after cohort enrollment. The intervention group (n = 130) was offered a 12-week supervised exercise intervention. The control group (n = 130) was not informed and received usual care. Six-month exercise effects on QoL and fatigue as measured in the cohort were analyzed with intention-to-treat (ITT), instrumental variable (IV), and propensity scores (PS) analyses.

Results

Fifty-two percent (n = 68) of inactive patients accepted the intervention. Physical activity increased in patients in the intervention group, but not in the control group. We found no benefit of exercise for dimensions of QoL (ITT difference global QoL: 0.8, 95% CI = − 2.2; 3.8) and fatigue, except for a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue (ITT difference: − 1.1, 95% CI = − 1.8; − 0.3; IV: − 1.9, 95% CI = − 3.3; − 0.5, PS: − 1.2, 95% CI = − 2.3; − 0.2).

Conclusion

TwiCs gave insight into exercise intervention acceptance: about half of inactive breast cancer survivors accepted the offer and increased physical activity levels. The offer resulted in no improvement on QoL, and a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue.

Trial registration

Netherlands Trial Register (NTR5482/NL.52062.041.15), date of registration: December 07, 2015.

Role of Up-Front Primary Tumor Resection and Tumor Sidedness in the Survival of Synchronous Metastatic Colon Cancer Patients

INTRODUCTION

Uncertainty exists about a possible survival benefit of primary tumor resection (PTR) in synchronous metastatic colon cancer (mCC). Since sidedness of the primary tumor is regarded as an important prognostic factor, our objective was to study the interaction between PTR and sidedness in synchronous mCC.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we used data from 2 first-line phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). A mixed Cox regression model was used to study the multiplicative interaction between PTR and sidedness. We adjusted for age, treatment arm, WHO performance status, number of affected organs by metastases, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and year of enrollment.

RESULTS

We found that PTR is associated with better survival in both right-sided (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59 [95% confidence interval 0.42-0.8 2]) and left-sided mCC (HR 0.70 [95% confidence interval 0.52-0.93]). The interaction between PTR and sidedness was not significant (p = 0.45).

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that the prognostic value of PTR is independent of sidedness. Validation of these results will be performed in ongoing RCTs.

First-in-Human Study of the Biodistribution and Pharmacokinetics of 89Zr-CX-072, a Novel Immunopet Tracer Based on an Anti-PD-L1 Probody

PURPOSE

CX-072, a PD-L1-targeting Probody therapeutic, is engineered to be activated by tumor proteases that remove a masking peptide. To study effects on biodistribution and pharmacokinetics, we performed ⁸⁹Zr-CX-072 positron emission tomography (PET) imaging.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Patients received ∼1 mg, 37 MBq ⁸⁹Zr-CX-072 plus 0, 4, or 9 mg unlabeled CX-072 and PET scans at days 2, 4, and 7. After that, treatment comprised 10 mg/kg CX-072 q2 weeks (n = 7) + 3 mg/kg ipilimumab q3w 4× (n = 1). Normal organ tracer uptake was expressed as standardized uptake value (SUV)_mean and tumor uptake as SUV_max. PD-L1 expression was measured immunohistochemically in archival tumor tissue.

RESULTS

Three of the eight patients included received 10-mg protein dose resulting in a blood pool mean SUV_mean ± SD of 4.27 ± 0.45 on day 4, indicating sufficient available tracer. Tumor uptake was highest at day 7, with a geometric mean SUV_max 5.89 (n = 113) and present in all patients. The median follow-up was 12 weeks (4-76+). One patient experienced stable disease and two patients a partial response. PD-L1 tumor expression was 90% in one patient and ≤1% in the other patients. Mean SUV_mean ± SD day 4 at 10 mg in the spleen was 8.56 ± 1.04, bone marrow 2.21 ± 0.46, and liver 4.97 ± 0.97. Four patients out of seven showed uptake in normal lymph nodes and Waldeyer's ring. The tracer was intact in the serum or plasma.

CONCLUSIONS

⁸⁹Zr-CX-072 showed tumor uptake, even in lesions with ≤1% PD-L1 expression, and modest uptake in normal lymphoid organs, with no unexpected uptake in other healthy tissues.

Interaction Between Primary Tumor Resection, Primary Tumor Location, and Survival in Synchronous Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

Location of the primary tumor has prognostic value and predicts the effect of certain therapeutics in synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated whether the association between primary tumor resection (PTR) and overall survival (OS) also depends on tumor location.

METHODS

Data on synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n=16,106) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry (n=19,584) were extracted. Cox models using time-varying covariates were implemented. Median OS for right-sided colon cancer (RCC), left-sided colon cancer, and rectal cancer was calculated using inverse probability weighting and a landmark point of 6 months after diagnosis as reference.

RESULTS

The association between PTR and OS was dependent on tumor location (P<0.05), with a higher median OS of upfront PTR versus upfront systemic therapy in Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval: 0.9-2.8), 4.3 (3.3-5.6), and 3.4 (0.6-7.6) months in RCC, left-sided colon cancer and rectal cancer, respectively. In SEER data, the difference was 6.0 (4.0-8.0), 8.0 (5.0-10.0), and 10.0 (7.0-13.0) months, respectively. Hazard plots indicate a higher hazard of death 2 to 3 months after PTR in RCC.

CONCLUSION

Upfront PTR is associated with improved survival regardless of primary tumor location. Patients with RCC appear to have less benefit because of higher mortality during 2 to 3 months after PTR.

Prognostic value of breast MRI characteristics before and during neoadjuvant endocrine therapy in patients with ER+/HER2- breast cancer

Objective:

To investigate whether BIRADS MRI characteristics before or during neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) are associated with the preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) in ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients.

Methods:

This retrospective observational cohort study included 35 ER+/HER2- patients with 38 tumors (3 bilateral cases) treated with NET. The pre- and midtreatment (after 3 months) MRIs were evaluated by two breast radiologists for BIRADS imaging characteristics, shrinkage pattern, and radiologic response. PEPI was used as end point. PEPI is based on the post-treatment surgical specimen’s pT- and pN-stage, Ki67, and ER-status. Tumors were assigned PEPI-1 (good prognosis) or PEPI-2/3 (poor prognosis). We investigated whether pre- and midtreatment BIRADS characteristics were associated with PEPI.

Results:

Median patient age was 65 years (interquartile interval [IQI]: 53, 70). 17 tumors (44.7%) were associated with good prognosis (PEPI-1), and 21 tumors (55.3%) with poor prognosis (PEPI-2/3). A larger reduction in tumor size after 3 months of NET was significantly associated with PEPI; 10 mm (IQI: 5, 13.5) in PEPI-1 tumors vs 4.5 mm (IQI: 3, 7; p = .045) in PEPI-2/3 tumors. Other BIRADS characteristics, shrinkage pattern or radiologic response were not associated with PEPI.

Conclusion:

Only a larger reduction in tumor size on MRI after 3 months of NET was associated with PEPI-1 (good prognosis) in ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients.

Advances in knowledge:

MRI characteristics previously reported to be associated with prognosis during neoadjuvant chemotherapy are not necessarily associated with prognosis during NET in ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients.

Specialized nutrition improves muscle function and physical activity without affecting chemotherapy efficacy in C26 tumour-bearing mice

BACKGROUND

Skeletal muscle wasting and fatigue are commonly observed in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy and associated with reduced treatment outcome and quality of life. Nutritional support may mitigate these side effects, but potential interference with chemotherapy efficacy could be of concern. Here, we investigated the effects of an ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid), leucine-enriched, high-protein (100% whey), additional vitamin D, and prebiotic fibres 'specific nutritional composition' (SNC) and chemotherapy on state-of-the-art tumour organoids and muscle cells and studied muscle function, physical activity, systemic inflammation, and chemotherapy efficacy in a mouse model of aggressive colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

Tumour-bearing mice received a diet with or without SNC. Chemotherapy treatment consisted of oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil. Tumour formation was monitored by calliper measurements. Physical activity was continuously monitored by infrared imaging. Ex vivo muscle performance was determined by myography, muscle fatty acid composition by gas chromatography, and plasma cytokine levels by Luminex xMAP technology. Patient-derived CRC organoids and C2C12 myotubes were used to determine whether SNC affects chemotherapy sensitivity in vitro.

RESULTS

Specific nutritional composition increased muscle contraction capacity of chemotherapy-treated tumour-bearing mice (P < 0.05) and enriched ω-3 fatty acid composition in muscle without affecting treatment efficacy (P < 0.0001). Mice receiving SNC maintained physical activity after chemotherapy and showed decreased systemic inflammation. Therapeutic response of CRC organoids was unaffected by SNC nutrients, while cell viability and protein synthesis of muscle cells significantly improved.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that specialized nutritional support can be used to maintain muscle function and physical activity levels during chemotherapy without increasing tumour viability. Therefore, nutritional strategies have potential value in promoting cancer and chemotherapy tolerance.

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas

PURPOSE

Although the prognosis of patients with thin primary cutaneous melanomas (T1, ≤ 1.0 mm) is generally excellent, some develop recurrence. We sought to develop and validate a model predicting recurrences in patients with thin melanomas.

METHODS

A Dutch population-based cohort (n = 25,930, development set) and a cohort from an Australian melanoma treatment center (n = 2,968, validation set) were analyzed (median follow-up 6.7 and 12.0 years, respectively). Multivariable Cox models were generated for local, regional, and distant recurrence-free survival (RFS). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic for each outcome. Each nomogram performance was evaluated using calibration plots defining low-risk and high-risk groups as the lowest and top 5% of the nomogram risk score, respectively. The nomograms' C-statistics were compared with those of a model including the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging parameters (T-stage and sentinel node status).

RESULTS

Local, regional, and distant recurrences were found in 209 (0.8%), 503 (1.9%), and 203 (0.8%) Dutch patients, respectively, and 23 (0.8%), 61 (2.1%), and 75 (2.5%) Australian patients, respectively. C-statistics of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.82) for local RFS, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78) for regional RFS, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83) for distant RFS were obtained for the development model. External validation showed C-statistics of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.90), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.80), respectively. Calibration plots showed a good match between predicted and observed rates. Using the nomogram, the C-statistic was increased by 9%-12% for the development cohort and by 11%-15% for the validation cohort, compared with a model including only T-stage and sentinel node status.

CONCLUSION

Most patients with thin melanomas have an excellent prognosis, but some develop recurrence. The presented nomograms can accurately identify a subgroup at high risk. An online calculator is available at www.melanomarisk.org.au.

Prognostic Factors for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all prognostic factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, high-grade dysplasia, or CRC) in patients with IBD.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted according to the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Random-effects models were created separately for odds and hazard ratios, different study designs, and univariable or multivariable data. The evidence for all prognostic factors was categorized as "weak", "moderate", or "strong", based on estimate of effect sizes, heterogeneity, and risk of bias.

RESULTS

A total of 164 studies were included, allowing pooled analysis of 31 potential prognostic factors. In the univariable analysis, the evidence for extensive disease was classified as strong while evidence for low-grade dysplasia, strictures, primary sclerosing cholangitis, post-inflammatory polyps, family history of CRC, and ulcerative colitis versus Crohn's disease was considered moderate. Evidence for any dysplasia, colon segment resection, aneuploidy, male sex, and age was classified as weak. In addition, histologic inflammation was identified as a risk factor in multivariable analysis (weak evidence). The evidence for the protective factors colonoscopic surveillance, 5-Aminosalicylic Acid, thiopurines, and smoking was moderate in univariable analysis. Multivariable analysis provided weak evidence for statin use.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified 13 risk factors and 5 protective factors for aCRN in IBD patients, based on univariable and/or multivariable pooled analyses. These findings might lay the groundwork for an improved CRC risk stratification-based surveillance in IBD.

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score

BACKGROUND

Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population.

METHODS

The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed.

RESULTS

The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)).

CONCLUSIONS

LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Tumour-stroma ratio has poor prognostic value in non-pedunculated T1 colorectal cancer: A multi-centre case-cohort study

BACKGROUND

Current risk stratification models for early invasive (T1) colorectal cancer are not able to discriminate accurately between prognostic favourable and unfavourable tumours, resulting in over-treatment of a large (>80%) proportion of T1 colorectal cancer patients. The tumour-stroma ratio (TSR), which is a measure for the relative amount of desmoplastic tumour stroma, is reported to be a strong independent prognostic factor in advanced-stage colorectal cancer, with a high stromal content being associated with worse prognosis and survival. We aimed to investigate whether the TSR predicts clinical outcome in patients with non-pedunculated T1 colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tumour tissue slides from a retrospective multi-centre case cohort of patients with non-pedunculated surgically treated T1 colorectal cancer were assessed for TSR by two independent observers who were blinded for clinical outcomes. The primary end point was adverse outcome, which was defined as the presence of lymph node metastasis in the resection specimen or colorectal cancer recurrence during follow-up.

RESULTS

All 261 patients in the case cohort had H&E slides available for TSR scoring. Of these, 183 were scored as stroma-low, and 78 were scored as stroma-high. There was moderate inter-observer agreement (κ = 0.42). In total, 41 patients had lymph node metastasis, 17 patients had recurrent cancer and five had both. Stroma-high tumours were not associated with an increased risk for an adverse outcome (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.37-1.18; p = 0.163).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study emphasises that existing prognosticators may not be simply extrapolated to T1 colorectal cancers, even though their prognostic value has been widely validated in more advanced-stage tumours.

Mode of progression after radioembolization in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases

Background

Radioembolization is an established treatment modality in colorectal cancer patients with liver-dominant disease in a salvage setting. Selection of patients who will benefit most is of vital importance. The aim of this study was to assess response (and mode of progression) at 3 months after radioembolization and the impact of baseline characteristics.

Methods

Three months after radioembolization with either yttrium-90 resin/glass or holmium-166, anatomic response, according to RECIST 1.1, was evaluated in 90 patients. Correlations between baseline characteristics and efficacy were evaluated. For more detailed analysis of progressive disease as a dismal clinical entity, distinction was made between intra- and extrahepatic progression, and between progression of existing metastases and new metastases.

Results

Forty-two patients (47%) had extrahepatic disease (up to five ≥ 1 cm lung nodules, and ≤ 2 cm lymph nodes) at baseline. No patients showed complete response, 5 (5.5%) patients had partial response, 16 (17.8%) had stable disease, and 69 (76.7%) had progressive disease. Most progressive patients (67/69; 97%) had new metastases (intra-hepatic N = 11, extrahepatic N = 32; or both N = 24). Significantly fewer patients had progressive disease in the group of patients presenting without extrahepatic metastases at baseline (63% versus 93%; p = 0.0016). Median overall survival in patients with extrahepatic disease was 6.5 months, versus 10 months in patients without extrahepatic disease at baseline (hazard ratio 1.79, 95%CI 1.24–2.57).

Conclusions

Response at 3-month follow-up and survival were heavily influenced by new metastases. Patients with extrahepatic disease at baseline had a worse outcome compared to patients without.

Whole-body MRI versus an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for staging of paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma: a prospective multicentre study

Objectives

To assess the concordance of whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) and an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for the initial staging in children with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL)

Methods

Children with newly diagnosed HL were included in this prospective, multicentre, international study and underwent WB-MRI and FDG-PET/CT at staging. Two radiologists and a nuclear medicine physician independently evaluated all images. Discrepancies between WB-MRI and FDG-PET/CT were assessed by an expert panel. All FDG-PET/CT errors were corrected to derive the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard. The expert panel corrected all reader errors in the WB-MRI DWI dataset to form the intrinsic MRI data. Inter-observer agreement for WB-MRI DWI was calculated using overall agreement, specific agreements and kappa statistics. Concordance for correct classification of all disease sites and disease stage between WB-MRI (without DWI, with DWI and intrinsic WB-MRI DWI) and the reference standard was calculated as primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included positive predictive value, negative predictive value and kappa statistics. Clustering within patients was accounted for using a mixed-effect logistic regression model with random intercepts and a multilevel kappa analysis.

Results

Sixty-eight children were included. Inter-observer agreement between WB-MRI DWI readers was good for disease stage (κ = 0.74). WB-MRI DWI agreed with the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for determining disease stage in 96% of the patients versus 88% for WB-MRI without DWI. Agreement between WB-MRI DWI and the reference standard was excellent for both nodal (98%) and extra-nodal (100%) staging.

Conclusions

WB-MRI DWI showed excellent agreement with the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard. The addition of DWI to the WB-MRI protocol improved the staging agreement.

Key Points

• This study showed excellent agreement between WB-MRI DWI and an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for staging paediatric HL.

• Diffusion-weighted imaging is a useful addition to WB-MRI in staging paediatric HL.

• Inter-observer agreement for WB-MRI DWI was good for both nodal and extra-nodal staging and determining disease stage.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00330-020-07182-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.