The effects of maximising the UK's tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study

Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035

Aim

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a cardiovascular disease caused by necrosis of the myocardium, which places a heavy burden on patients. In France, the proportion of daily smokers remains high, reaching at 25.5% in 2020. We evaluated the impact of smoking reduction scenarios on the projection of MI prevalence, mean age of incident cases and number of MI prevented cases until 2035.

Methods and Results

The French government has introduced smoking cessation policies that have led to an annual decrease in smoking prevalence. Based on this annual decline, we implemented three scenarios (SC) simulating an annual decrease in the proportion of smokers aged over 35 (SC1: 1%, ie, natural evolution without intervention, SC2: 2%, SC3: 9.87%) and a fourth scenario (SC4) in which there is a complete discontinuation of smoking from 2024 onwards using MI hospitalization and demographic data, estimations for the proportion of daily smokers between 35 and 95 years and multi-state models. Between 2023 and 2035, MI prevalence increased from 3.18% to 4.23% in males and from 1.00% to 1.46% in females under SC1. MI prevalence was equal to 4.21%, 4.06%, and 3.82% in males and 1.45%, 1.40%, and 1.34% in females in 2035 according to SC2, SC3, and SC4, respectively. Compared with SC1, 0.68% MI cases would be prevented with SC2, 4.52% with SC3 and 10.34% with SC4, with almost half of cases being prevented before 65 years of age. The increase in the mean age of MI incident cases ranged from 3 to 4 years among males and from 1 to 2 years among females.

Conclusion

While reducing tobacco use could substantially reduce the number of MI cases prevented, its prevalence would continue to increase due to the ageing population. An integrated prevention strategy that includes the leading cardiovascular risk factors should more efficiently reduce the future burden of MI.

Cardiovascular risk and physical activity in Syrians living in England compared with the population of North West England: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the 10-year cardiovascular risk and physical activity among Syrians residing in England and compare them with the North West England population.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Bilingual online questionnaire distributed through social media platforms from 21 June to 23 July 2023.

PARTICIPANTS

Syrian individuals in England (aged 25-69, migrated post-2010) and residents of North West England within the same age bracket. All participants had no history of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome measures included differences in QRISK3 score, 10-year relative risk (RR), metabolic equivalent of task (MET) and self-reported physical activity between the two groups. Secondary outcome measures included subgroup analyses based on sex and age.

RESULTS

Of the 273 eligible participants (137 in the Syrian group and 136 in the Northwest England group), the QRISK3 score was twofold higher in the Syrian group (2.20, 5.50) than in the North West England group (1.20, 3.15) (p=0.042). The 10-year RR was approximately three times higher in the Syrian group (p<0.001), while MET was about twice as high in the Northwest England group (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite relocating to England, Syrians face substantially elevated cardiovascular risks attributed to an unhealthy lifestyle, including smoking, reduced physical activity, increased body mass index and diabetes, coupled with a strong family history of CVD in first-degree relatives under the age of 60. The study underscores the need for early assessment, risk factor identification and tailored interventions for this population. Raising awareness, particularly in the context of smoking, and promoting physical activity are crucial for mitigating cardiovascular risks. The findings emphasise the importance of culturally sensitive interventions to address the unique health challenges of Syrians in the UK.

Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997-2018

Background

Increased taxation is recognised worldwide as one of the most effective interventions for decreasing tobacco and harmful alcohol use, with many variations of policy options available. This rapid scoping review was part of a NIHR-funded project ('SYNTAX' 16/105/26) and was undertaken during 2018 to inform interviews to be conducted with UK public health stakeholders with expertise in alcohol and tobacco pricing policy.

Methods

Objectives: To synthesise evidence and debates on current and potential alcohol and tobacco taxation options for the UK, and report on the underlying objectives, evidence of effects and mediating factors. Eligibility criteria: Peer-reviewed and grey literature; published 1997-2018; English language; UK-focused; include taxation interventions for alcohol, tobacco, or both. Sources of evidence: PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google, stakeholder and colleague recommendations.

Charting methods

Excel spreadsheet structured using PICO framework, recording source characteristics and content.

Results

Ninety-one sources qualified for inclusion: 49 alcohol, 36 tobacco, 6 both. Analysis identified four policy themes: changes to excise duty within existing tax structures, structural reforms, industry measures, and hypothecation of tax revenue for public benefits. For alcohol, policy options focused on raising the price of cheap, high-strength alcohol. For tobacco, policy options focused on raising the price of all tobacco products, especially the cheapest products, which are hand-rolling tobacco. For alcohol and tobacco, there were options such as levies that take money from the industries to help reduce the societal costs of their products. Due to the perceived social and economic importance of alcohol in contrast to tobacco, policy options also discussed supporting pubs and small breweries.

Conclusions

This review has identified a set of tax policy options for tobacco and alcohol, their objectives, evidence of effects and related mediating factors. The differences between alcohol and tobacco tax policy options and debates suggest an opportunity for cross-substance policy learning.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Interaction between eNOS gene polymorphism and current smoking on susceptibility to coronary heart disease in Chinese people

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to explore the relation between endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

SNPstats (online software: http://bioinfo.iconcologia.net/SNPstats) was performed to test Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in controls. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) was adopted to screen the preferable interaction between eNOS SNPs and smoking.

RESULTS

The frequency for the rs1799983-T allele was 31.1% in CHD patients, which was significantly higher than that of 19.8% in controls (P < 0.05). The frequency for the rs891512-A allele was 28.8% in cases, which was also significantly higher than that of 20.1% in controls (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that both rs1799983-T and rs891512-A alleles were related with increased risk of CHD, and the odds ratios (ORs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] were 1.71 (1.31-2.15) and 1.57 (1.14-2.07), respectively. High-order interactions were investigated among SNPs and environmental factors using the GMDR method. The data showed that a two-locus model (rs1799983 × smoking) had a testing accuracy of 0.60 (P = 0.001). We found that current smokers with rs1799983-GT or TT within eNOS gene have the highest CHD risk, compared to never smokers with rs1799983-GG genotype, OR (95% CI) = 2.74 (1.78-3.85), after covariates adjustment for age, gender, BMI, and alcohol drinking.

CONCLUSION

The rs1799983-T and rs891512-A alleles and interaction between rs1799983 and smoking were all risk factors of CHD.

The Tobacco Control Scale as a research tool to measure country-level tobacco control policy implementation

INTRODUCTION

The Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) was designed for advocacy purposes but has also been used as a research tool. In the present study, we characterized TCS use, its limitations and strengths, and critically assessed its use as a research instrument.

METHODS

We conducted an extensive search of the biomedical databases PubMed and Web of Science for the keyword ‘tobacco control scale’ in all fields. The search was limited to studies published in the period March 2006 to December 2019. Out of 69 hits, 32 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently extracted information from each publication regarding their general characteristics, publication and research aspects, and the characteristics of the use of the TCS.

RESULTS

We found that researchers have used the TCS as a tool to monitor tobacco control policies mainly in cross-sectional observational studies with ecological and multilevel designs directed to advocacy and the promotion of further research. Different outcomes, such as smoking prevalence and quit ratios, have been associated with tobacco control policy scores. The main reported limitations of the TCS were a low variance across countries and a failure to express enforcement and to incorporate the most recent legislation.

CONCLUSIONS

The TCS has been commonly used to assess differences in outcomes according to tobacco control policies. However, there are still areas for improvement in its use in research regarding the lack of comparability of TCS scores across time. The lessons that have been learned should be used to adapt and expand the TCS overseas.

Positive Effects of the National Cigarette Price Increase Policy on Smoking Cessation in South Korea

Background

In January 2015, South Korea's government raised the cigarette tax, and the retail price of cigarettes abruptly increased by 80% compared to the previous year. This research aimed to determine the effect of this increase on smoking cessation among South Korean smokers.

Methods

We analyzed data collected by the 2013–2015 South Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 15,203 South Koreans over 19 years old using regression analysis. We examined the recent non-smoking period of nonsmoking people, prepared according to the survey, and analyzed the recent smoking cessation ratio.

Results

Among smokers, from 2013 to 2014, the smoking cessation rate was 7.2%, and it increased to 9.9% in 2015 after the increase in the cigarette tax. In 2015, the recent smoking cessation rate was higher among people over the age of 60 (odds ratio [OR], 2.67) compared to those between the ages of 40 and 49. The recent smoking cessation rate was higher among people with below elementary education (OR, 2.28) and above university education (OR, 1.94) compared to high school, higher for those with apartments (OR, 1.74) compared to general type residences, and higher among those with a household income in the low-middle quartile (Q2) (OR, 2.32) compared to the highest quartile (Q4).

Conclusion

This innovative policy including increase in cigarette prices affected smoking cessation, and its impact varied by sub-group of smokers in South Korea.

Future cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme: Microsimulation modelling using data from Liverpool, UK

BACKGROUND

Aiming to contribute to prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme has been implemented across England since 2009. The programme involves cardiovascular risk stratification-at 5-year intervals-of all adults between the ages of 40 and 74 years, excluding any with preexisting vascular conditions (including CVD, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, among others), and offers treatment to those at high risk. However, the cost-effectiveness and equity of population CVD screening is contested. This study aimed to determine whether the NHS Health Check programme is cost-effective and equitable in a city with high levels of deprivation and CVD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

IMPACTNCD is a dynamic stochastic microsimulation policy model, calibrated to Liverpool demographics, risk factor exposure, and CVD epidemiology. Using local and national data, as well as drawing on health and social care disease costs and health-state utilities, we modelled 5 scenarios from 2017 to 2040: Scenario (A): continuing current implementation of NHS Health Check;Scenario (B): implementation 'targeted' toward areas in the most deprived quintile with increased coverage and uptake;Scenario (C): 'optimal' implementation assuming optimal coverage, uptake, treatment, and lifestyle change;Scenario (D): scenario A combined with structural population-wide interventions targeting unhealthy diet and smoking;Scenario (E): scenario B combined with the structural interventions as above. We compared all scenarios with a counterfactual of no-NHS Health Check. Compared with no-NHS Health Check, the model estimated cumulative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (discounted £/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) to be 11,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -270,000 to 320,000) for scenario A, 1,500 (-91,000 to 100,000) for scenario B, -2,400 (-6,500 to 5,700) for scenario C, -5,100 (-7,400 to -3,200) for scenario D, and -5,000 (-7,400 to -3,100) for scenario E. Overall, scenario A is unlikely to become cost-effective or equitable, and scenario B is likely to become cost-effective by 2040 and equitable by 2039. Scenario C is likely to become cost-effective by 2030 and cost-saving by 2040. Scenarios D and E are likely to be cost-saving by 2021 and 2023, respectively, and equitable by 2025. The main limitation of the analysis is that we explicitly modelled CVD and diabetes mellitus only.

CONCLUSIONS

According to our analysis of the situation in Liverpool, current NHS Health Check implementation appears neither equitable nor cost-effective. Optimal implementation is likely to be cost-saving but not equitable, while targeted implementation is likely to be both. Adding structural policies targeting cardiovascular risk factors could substantially improve equity and generate cost savings.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%.

METHODS

A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035. Second, these projections were used to predict the future incidence, prevalence and cost of 17 smoking-related diseases using a Monte Carlo microsimulation approach. A sustained increase in the duty escalator was evaluated against a baseline of continuing historical smoking trends and the existing duty escalator.

RESULTS

A sustained increase in the TDE is projected to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 6% in 2035, from 10% in a baseline scenario. After increasing the TDE, only 65% of female and 60% of male would-be smokers would actually be smoking in 2035. The intervention is projected to avoid around 75 200 new cases of smoking-related diseases between 2015 and 2035. In 2035 alone, £49 m in National Health Service and social care costs and £192 m in societal premature mortality and morbidity costs are projected to be avoided.

CONCLUSION

Increasing the UK TDE to 5% above inflation could effectively reduce smoking prevalence, prevent diseases and avoid healthcare costs. It would deliver substantial progress towards a tobacco-free society and should be implemented by the UK Government with urgency.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue.

RESULTS

If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035-well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone.

CONCLUSION

These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco 'endgame'. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking.